Transcription
There's a chance you may have lost your fantasy draft before you even started drafting because there is a massive difference between the best places to pick this year and the worst places to pick. I went through and I did mock drafts from every single draft slot for both 10 team and 12 team leagues. And I'm going to rank from the very top with the S tier to the very very bottom starting with your 12 team formats and your 12 team league.
The S tier picks, it's not even remotely close, will be the 102 and the 101. Now, generally, I don't love picking at the extremes on the board, right? If you're picking at one or you're picking at 12, you really can't allow value to make it to you, right? A great example of this is maybe you really like Brian Thomas Jr. and you have him ranked in the sixth round, but you're pretty confident he's going to go in the middle of the seventh. Well, if you're in the middle of your draft, like the 105, the 106, the 107, you could pass on him in the sixth and you can still get the player that you want at a falling value around later. However, if you try doing that when you're at the one spot or the 12 spot, you're going to be at a massive risk because there are 23 picks between your next elections and you have no idea if the guy that you actually want is going to make it back to you. So, generally, I don't want the 101. I want to be in the middle where I can take values. However, again, this year is different and it's for two players and two players only. Be Robinson and Jamir Gibbs. These running backs are a clear tier ahead of anybody else in fantasy because we look at the rest of the running back landscape and you can see red flags with Christian McAffrey. He's already over 30 years old and he has a long long list of injuries throughout his career. We go over and look at Jonathan Taylor. Jonathan Taylor's had a few injuries throughout his career. I mean obviously he is much older than Bejon as well as Gibbs and he projects to be in an offense that where the offensive line got worse year-over-year and Daniel Jones is coming off a torn Achilles. We can go and look at Devon Aan having to play with Malik Willis. We can look at Ashton Genty finishing as the RB16 last year. Like you can poke holes in every other running back profile except these two guys. And I think if all else is equal, I would want to start with the running back in round one of fantasy drafts this season because running backs are more expensive than they've ever been. You go through and you look at what's happened in fantasy over the past two seasons. Over the past two years, running backs have managed to stay healthier at a rate that we've really never seen. And at the same time, those guys at the top of fantasy drafts, they have been massive hits while you really haven't had any late round running backs coming on. So, what this has led to is it's led to the entire position becoming more expensive. And in my opinion, a lot of these third round, a lot of these fourth round running backs are honestly too expensive for me where I'd rather be taking an elite tight end there. I'd rather be taking wide receivers. So, if I get Bejon or Gibbs, that's going to give me the advantage to be able to scoop values as we go through.
Now, our next tier is going to be the 105, the 104, and the 103. Now, with these picks, what I do not like and why I am putting them after those top two is going to be you have to start with the wide receiver in my opinion. Now, obviously, if you're using our draft sheets and you go through and you look at the nonPPR rankings in comparison to the full PPR, um if you're in a nonPR league, yeah, you're going to still go running back. But, of course, you need to understand that you should be making these adjustments based on your exact league settings. If you don't know how to do that, whether you're playing in a 10 team, 12 team draft, nonPPR, full PPR, um league with one flex spot, two flex spots, don't worry, we have you covered. I have over 70 custom draft sheets made on flockfantasy.com that will take into account your exact league settings as well as the exact draft platform that you are drafting on. And that's going to come with the $34 season pass, not 34 bucks a month, but $34 for the entire season. You're going to be getting all the weekly and rest of season rankings through the entire year, all the real time draft assistance, all the draft sheets, and if you use code flock, you're going to be getting free questions that you're able to ask me in the live streams that I'm doing every single night during the season. You can find that link in the description as well as the comment section. But what I don't like about these picks at the 105, 104, 103, is you're either going to draft Jamar Chase, JSN, or Pugnakua. They're the clear tier here. So, it's going to be a little awkward if the running backs all go before you. Now, some of these drafts, like you'll see these mocks that I've done at the 105, I was able to get lucky and Derrick Henry fell to me in the middle of the second round where if I'm able to start with Jackson Smith and Jigba, Dererick Henry, cool. I mean, I know some drafts occasionally you'll see Kenneth Walker fall, maybe you'll see a Saquon Barkley fall. Very rarely are you going to get Genty, but you could get Chase Brown here, which is why I am going to have the 105 ahead of the 103 because obviously I prefer Jamar Chase over JSN. But I at least want to give myself a chance to get one of those tier three running backs that go at the beginning through the middle of the second round. And I have that chance with the 105. The other note that I want to make here is if you're playing in a league where you only start two wide receivers and one flex. I also like being at the beginning section of the board because what you're going to be able to do is you're going to be able to go through and take an elite tight end with either Bowers at the end of the second or McBride at the beginning of the third. And for those two wide receiver one flex formats, I absolutely love the elite tight end which you'll see with our draft sheets.
Now, moving over to our next tier, we're going to swing to the complete opposite side of the board, and that's going to be the 110, the 111, and the 112. What I really like about these picks is going to be you have the flexibility to do what you want with your first two. You are either going to be able to go through and select CD Lamb, Justin Jefferson if you want to bring a wide receiver onto your roster, or you can go running back, running back. Almost regardless you're drafting a running back in the second round, whether that is Chase Brown, whether that's going to be Devon Aan, whether that's James Cook, Saquon Barkley, Amari Hampton, like your second round pick's going to be a running back if you're on this side of the board. So you have the optionality to go running back, running back, or you can go wide receiver, running back, and have a very balanced start. If you are playing in a league in which you only start two wide receivers, one flex, I actually love the double anchor running back strategy this year. However, if you're in a league where you can start four or more total wide receivers, there I'd be a little bit more inclined to mix than a Justin Jefferson or a CD Lamb with this start. The reason I prefer 10 versus 12 is I think the players that you're actually taking are going to be very similar in the first and second round. I think that's a pretty big tier. And again, when in doubt, I like to be closer to the center of the draft board. That way I have more flexibility to let values fall to me as we go into the middle rounds.
Now I'm going to have the 109 in a tier by itself. The reason for this is sometimes you'll find yourself in a little bit of an awkward spot at the 109 where you can get boxed out of those really exciting round two running backs where maybe you don't get the ability to take your choice of Barkley Hen Hampton, James Cook, Genty and instead you're just having to go through and you're taking the guy at the very end of that tier or maybe you're having to pull up like an AJ Brown or Drake London which I probably wouldn't recommend but still very similar to the 110 through the 112. I just think you'll have less optionality when you choose your round two running back. And then the worst picks in your 12 team draft are going to be the 106, the 107, and the 108. The reason for this is again in my opinion, I think that there is a clear tier of the top five players in fantasy drafts this year. Why I hate the 106, hate it, hate it, hate it, is you can be in a position in which at pick six, you go through and you take your highest ranked player. Whether that's going to be a Monroe St. Brown, whether that's going to be Christian McAffrey, whether that's going to be Jonathan Taylor, it is up to you. I think a Monro St. Brown is the safest pick on that list. Obviously, McCaffrey has the highest ceiling, but honestly, kind of comes down to how you want to start your team. What I would be terrified of with this start from the 106 specifically is there's a world in which you start with Aman Ross St. Brown, right? In my opinion, a tier below Jamar Chase, Puka, Nikkua, those level wide receivers. And you see a run of running backs where McCaffrey, Taylor, James Cook, Genty, A Chant, Hampton, Chase Brown, Barkley, Kenneth Walker, and Dererick Henry are all off the board by the time you're on the clock at the 106 again. And if that ends up happening, you are put into the worst position possible where you have to take like St. Brown and then either draft Drake London, AJ Brown, or you pull up Jeremiah Love. So, all of a sudden, you're so far behind at running back that you're in the position where you may end up needing to take Bree Hall in the third. You may need to take Bucky Irving in the fourth. You may be the guy being forced to reach on the overpriced running backs the middle rounds because you didn't have a balanced start and it wasn't your fault at all.
Now, as we go through the middle rounds when determining our draft slots, I generally care a little bit less about draft slots because we know when we look at a player like Christian McCaffrey, he's going to be going anywhere from pick like four to pick eight or pick nine, right? But he's in that range. Once you go lower and we're looking at like Mike Evans, hell, you could see Mike Evans go at the beginning of the fifth or you could see him go at the end of the sixth. So generally as we go through and talk about the best picks to have, the worst picks to have, I'm looking at the start of your draft, the first three, four rounds, and what's going to set you up for success to take best player available in the middle rounds.
Now, let's move over to 10 team leagues. 10 team leagues are a very different beast. I would say the S tier of the 101 and the 102 remains the same, but the level of an advantage that it gives you is completely different. If you start your draft off with the 101 in a 10 team format, keep in mind you're going to be picking in the second and the third round four picks earlier than you would be in a 12TR. So just going through and doing some of these mocks on flockfantasy.com, I was able to draft Jir Gibbs, Kenneth Walker, and Brock Bowers all on the same team with the 101 that led to me scooping beautiful wide receiver value in the middle rounds. And the big cheat code is and your 10 team league wide receiver depth is going to be so easy to come by. So I was able to get a Buouah at the 410, Jaylen Wadd at the 501, Cardinal Tate at the 610, Roman Dun at the 701. feel very good about my wide receiver room while having two anchor running backs and the elite tight end, which again, if you go and look at our 10 team draft sheets where you only start two wide receivers and one flex, the tight end is going to be way more valuable in that format than your 12 team format with multiple flex spots just because the supply and demand of the positions and the percentage of the starting lineup output they account for. So, the 101 and the 102 just absolutely beautiful picks to have. Um, in terms of why I would prefer the 101 in a 10 team draft, you're going to get a great player at the 210 and the 301 regardless. Whereas in that 12 team format, it's not a guarantee. So, I'd rather have the 102 in a 12 team league and just hopefully I get lucky that a player makes it to me at 23 that I like, but I know a player is going to make it to me at the 23 turn in that 10 teamer. So, I would just prefer the 101 and be able to get Jamir Gibbs.
Now, I would say the A tier is going to be completely empty on this because again, you get such a strong advantage with those first two picks if you're in that 10 team format. Now, I do want to keep it the same in terms of our B tier with the 105 through 103. You can look at this a couple different ways. One, wide receiver depth's going to be easier to come by. So again, as we go through and as we start off our draft with Puka Nakua, maybe you make an argument, oh okay, man, do we want to be starting our draft off with a wide receiver in round one if in your 10 team league you can get Tedo and McMillan in the fifth round? Which could be a good point. But the thing is about fantasy this year is in this 10 team format, you're going to guarantee yourselves one of those like tier three running backs in the second round. So you can start Puka Nikua, you can start JSN and still get Saquon Barkley in the second, still get Amari Hampton in the third. Like an example of this team I drafted at the 104. I went Puka, Barkley, and then Jeremiah Love with my first three picks. Then afterwards, I'm actually going to make a change here. I think the 106 and the 107 completely fine to have in a 10 team format specifically because similar to how we were afraid of getting boxed out of those round two running backs at the 106 and a 12 team draft and you're a 10 team draft it just can't happen right you're four picks higher on the board in the second round. So here you can start JSN Chase Brown and then you can still get Jeremiah Love in the third. Um the draft we took at seven, we went Jonathan Taylor, Amari and Hampton. Again, you'll notice that in a 10 team league, generally I'm going to prefer to go with that running back in round one with McAffrey or Taylor. And in that 12 team draft, there's where you'll see me take the Amman Ross St. Brown because again, just go back to that 10 team league. You're getting Garrett Wilson in the fifth.
And the worst picks to have here in my mind in your 10 team league will actually be the selections at the very end of your draft because you don't really get that much of an advantage in terms of the second round running backs because again those second round running backs are going to last all the way until the 210 in that 10 team format compared to a 12teamer. They kind of run out in the middle of the second round. And on top of this, you will get boxed out of seeing an exciting third round player fall to you where the third round picks that I made from the 109 and the 110 and the 10 team draft was like Breeze Hall, Trey McBride. Whereas if we can go through and look at some of those third round picks that I made when we were drafting in the middle range with the 106, the 107 there, I'm grabbing guys like Jeremiah Love and Rasheed Rice.
But almost no matter what, in my mind, walking away with Bejian or Gibbs this year is simply just going to be too much of an advantage where if you get the opportunity to go ahead and choose your own draft slot, I would choose one of those top two picks. If you're okay drafting a wide receiver in round one, hard to get away from those S tier receivers with Chase, Puka, and JSN. But then after that, you really have to start considering where those tier cut offs are as we go into the middle and later draft slots.
But I really appreciate you. And of course, if you need help adjusting rankings to your exact league settings and the exact draft platform you are on, we have all those custom draft sheets on flockfantasy.com. Those realtime draft assistance for you as well. You'll get everything with the $34 season pass, including all the premium content from almost all the YouTubers that you watch, including weekly rest of season rankings, trade calculator access, and when you use code flock when you sign up, you're also going to get free questions that you can ask me on the live stream during the season. But I really appreciate you. Really hope I was able to help you out in some way here. and really hope I get to see you out in the live stream later.