Transcription
[music] >> Okay, hello everybody. Welcome to the latest market round up podcast, and we're going to take a look at, uh, some of these, uh, instruments in some detail.
Um, as discussed in the last market round up podcast, we're going to sort of home in a little bit on some of the more important, um, charts that are, uh, in front of us right at the moment. So, let's start with gold, and this is the gold, uh, big picture chart. You've seen this many times. This is the monthly time frame. Gold's cup and handle pattern there, shown with the red cup and the sort of red handle, um, pattern, which was also in the shape of a cup. And then the breakout that took place, and then it broke out through this critical resistance line that goes all the way back to 1980. So, we know all about that, and we also know that we moved to $5,600, um, and, uh, really tanked at Fibonacci extension level, which is 5,400. We had a brief spike a little bit higher. And now we're seeing the price pull back, and we've fallen all the way from 5,600 to 4,100. So, that's a, you know, a large, um, a large drop that's taken place.
Question now, of course, is how much further are we likely to fall, or is the correction finished? Well, you can see on the green rising support line there that, uh, we may well have, uh, seen the low at around about the 4,000 area. We got very close to $4,000. So, the question now is how the price action plays out, whether we see that forming a solid base and moving up in a sort of a V-shaped recovery, which would look something like like that. A V-shaped recovery, straight back up to previous highs and off you go. Or whether that support level fails and we come down to the 3,700 area, which is where that Fibonacci support is, or whether indeed we come all the way down to test the, the entire breakout back, back around the sort of 3,000, closer to the 3,000 area. All those are possibilities, and we're going to get clues as to which of those takes place by looking at these smaller time frame charts.
This is gold on the daily time frame now. So, we're looking at a, a wedge pattern that has formed, a bullish falling wedge. Typically, the stock RSI made a lower high and is now turning down. So, at the moment, that's quite bearish, and it points towards a target in that 3,700 to 4,000 area. That's the first reasonable downside target. As I say, we came very close to that back in the, well, only about a week or so ago, in fact. So, we came close to that target level there. And the indications at the moment are that we're going to retest that target area, and then we're going to see how price behaves. We can't make any prejudgements. We have to just let the chart inform us with its evidence. At the moment, the evidence has been strong that we're in a continued downtrend, so we managed to communicate that to you pretty well, I think, and we haven't, you know, fallen into the trap of just making assumptions every time the price of gold starts to move up a little bit. You can't just say, "Right, that's it. We're going to new all-time highs," just because the price of gold here, for example, moved from 4,100 all the way up to about 4,900. That wasn't enough. The evidence wasn't strong enough. The weight of evidence wasn't there, which is what we told you at the time, which is why we didn't turn bullish on precious metals. So, we just continue with the same methodology. We won't be able to tell you in real time when the bottom has been hit, but we will be able to tell you in real time when the weight of evidence is there to tell us that the bottom is likely behind us. That's how technical analysis works.
Okay, now silver, and similar story. This is the big picture, and we hit, or just about hit, an important Fibonacci extension level there to the, the level around about 100, 25, 130 dollars. In fact, I think if I set these numbers correctly, it might be a bit closer to the 120, 125 dollar area, and we got to 121. So, that's kind of job done there, and we're now looking at that pullback. Probably, I've, I've been saying for a long time, to the 55, 57 area. That's the logical downside target, or at least the first logical downside target. If that level fails, then there's the edge of the arc here down at around about 46, 47 dollars, where we see a Fibonacci support level as well. So, there's a, a couple of different scenarios there, again, dependent on whether that support level holds. We can't, excuse me, can't make assumptions about whether the support level will hold, which is why we're tracking this on smaller time frames.
And you've seen this chart before. It's the silver 8-hour time frame chart. So, each candle on here covers an 8-hour time frame, whereas on that previous one, each candle covered a, a 1-month time frame. A monthly, monthly chart is when the candles are, you know, describing 1-month price action, and an 8-hour chart is when each candle is describing the price action that's taken place in 8 hours. So, we've seen this continued breakdown, and we said at the time when we broke through at this green circle, much to a lot of people's annoyance, we didn't turn long-term long or longer-term bullish at that point. We kept communicating our reservations [snorts] that the correction needed more time. The distance from the moving average was still too large, and given the fact that we'd already seen the chart communicate to us that a large correction was taking place when we fell 50% there, very nearly 50%. That told us that there was a serious correction, um, ongoing. So, when we broke through that green circle, the fact that we were in a serious correction, which should mean the long-term distance from moving average indicators making a more meaningful reset, it told us that more time should be involved, and that the likelihood of price, um, making new highs or getting back to those highs was, was still low, and, you know, we needed to give it more time, as, as we said, over and over again.
And now that we've broken this support level, and we're back down into the '70s, and in fact now into the '60s, we've given you some very, I think, very good guidance as to where you might want to start, um, initiating positions if you haven't got any positions in the precious metals, or adding to your positions. And there's, I've done multiple posts that answer that question for you as to how to approach not [clears throat] just in terms of the, the actions of buying into a position, but psychologically approach the idea of building a new position, because of course this correction could very well go lower, and it could very well take more time. In fact, I think that's quite likely. Um, so, psychologically, you need to, um, initiate new positions, or add to current positions with that in mind, accepting of the fact that that is the case. Um, but given that we've fallen nearly 50% already, then it's a reasonable price level to start thinking about, uh, new positions, or adding to positions. Hope that all makes perfect sense for you.
Now, part of the evidence here is the gold-silver ratio. If [laughter] if this gold-silver ratio, um, breaks upwards through both of these green lines, then we've got a problem, um, in terms of, well, not a problem. We've got strong evidence at that point for a deeper, um, price correction that's going to take even longer. You know, if we break above that green line on a daily closing basis, then it's likely, in my, in my view, that the correction continues for many more months. And not, not necessarily that we go massively lower in terms of price, but just that the correction just meanders along for month after month after month, grinding everybody down, whilst the distance from moving average indicator resets and prepares, prepares those who are watching for the next big breakout move to the upside. So, you know, those who haven't got a clue and who aren't following technical analysis will, will just give up and they'll be saying, "Oh, that's it. Gold and silver are dead." Just like they did previously. You know, when silver tripled and gold doubled. You know, there was a lot of talk about, you know, gold and silver not performing. Well, the same will be the case, no doubt, the next time around. It always is. So, that's one piece of evidence that we can watch.
If, of course, we don't break out above those green lines and we start to reverse here, then gold and silver, in particular silver in particular, but gold as well, are likely to rally. And if that's the case, then the black line becomes important because if we break below the black line, then that's it. We're onto something much bigger in terms of a, a move for gold and silver, and we could look at much higher targets. If the black line holds, then this was just a, a little bit of a rally, a false rally, might take us back to, I don't know, 80 or 90 dollars silver, for example, might take us back to nearly five, my $5,000 gold. But, you know, if that black line then holds, then that's another false, you know, false hope for everybody. And then, you know, this thing can break to the upside and down we go again. So, that's how we use the ratio charts to keep us on the right track.
Now, tied in with all of that is the gold to S&P ratio, and this is a very important chart. Um, I'm just going to expand it a little bit. There you go. Uh, this chart is very important because you can see when you get these capital rotations, the chart patterns that form, um, give very clear guidance as to when the gold bull era is properly underway. The ratio chart needs to be above the moving average, above the Ichimoku cloud, and breaking to the upside, as it was there in 1972. Now, the situation that we're in at the moment with this correction is fairly similar in a lot of ways to the one that took place in the sort of 1968. It doesn't show up so well on the gold to S&P ratio, but it does on the silver to S&P ratio because silver wasn't, um, price of silver wasn't pegged. Uh, so, that we've shown you that ratio chart before, and the similarities with the late 1960s are quite striking. And if that's the case, then this can pull back further, and the, and silver, uh, the S&P can continue to outperform silver for a while. How long? We don't know. It could be 1 to 3 months, or it could be 1 to 3 years, as it was in 1968. But, what's important here is I don't really want to see this ratio chart moving below the 4-year moving average in the Ichimoku cloud. It kind of did back here in the early 1970s, very briefly broke below the 4-year moving average in the Ichimoku cloud. Um, if the price of gold hadn't been pegged, who knows, maybe it might not have might not have done that. And again, we're going to keep an eye on the silver to S&P chart as well, uh, for guidance on that. But, so far, the road map stays in place. The road map remains, um, that the big picture is more bullish for gold than it is for the S&P. We, we've seen higher lows on this ratio chart, higher highs, and the weight of evidence suggests we're trending towards an eventual upside breakout through the red line, and through the declining red line, and through the horizontal resistance zone, through that green circle, effectively. That's what the weight of evidence is still suggesting. And what if and when that happens, we can make the, um, we can make the statement that's in that green box there that we've, you know, we've got a capital rotation event, and that stock markets are likely to drastically underperform precious metals for many years. So, that's where we're at with, with gold and silver. So, I've covered that on the higher time frames and the lower time frames for you. So, that, you know, covered that in some, in some detail.
Now, the miners. If we take a look at, let's, let's have a look at GDX. And GDX, that's a very clear corrective signal that we're getting on the, on the chart that I put up on the monthly time frame. And I'm just going to, in fact, I'll just go, okay, let me just, uh, get on to the correct, uh, template here. And let's go back to GDX. Um, here we go. Right. So, GDX, and I'm going to zoom in on some smaller time frame here because this is the weekly time frame, and GDX is in a very clear corrective pattern. Lower highs, and we're putting a major lower low there, and now we're putting another lower low here on a weekly closing basis. So, on the weekly time frame, doesn't look great. On the monthly time frame, um, that's a, you know, that's quite a big correction, but we, we haven't, you know, we've fallen from 117 to sort of 83. So, that's not a 50% drop that we've seen in silver. We haven't seen the miners really underperforming the metal to a large degree yet. Now, you may have your own views as to, as to why that is, but my, I would caution here on the daily time frame that the stock RSI is turning down again, and, you know, the price has turned down. So, I would be very, very cautious on the miners, and particularly because when you look at, for example, GDX versus gold, we haven't broken out from this rectangular box that I've been talking about for a long time. And also, if we look at SIL versus silver, silver, SILJ versus silver, rather, silver juniors, um, again, that hasn't broken out into the region where SILJ would be favored, and in fact, the stock RSI doesn't look particularly great on the monthly time frame there. On the weekly, it's close to peaking, and on the daily, it's starting to, what, it's starting to top, isn't it? So, that ratio could well turn down at a moment's notice for the miners, um, but, you know, underperforming the metal more, more notably. So, there's nothing on this ratio chart at the moment that tells us we need to be looking at, um, silver miners or gold miners, um, in preference to the metal. The time to, the time, the real time to earn them, I know we've had a lot of successful trades with the miners in the last 12 months or so, um, but the real time to, to earn the miners is when this ratio chart breaks out, because that's when it's outperforming the metal, and that just hasn't happened yet. So, that's important. I felt that was important to get across.
Platinum is talked about a lot, and you can see the correction taking place in platinum. It's quite similar in a way to the one that we saw back in 2000, uh, 2001 there, with the back test of the arc. And I've been saying in the Market Wrap podcast, probably for, for over a year now, that, um, that, um, you know, we're likely to spike to the upside and very plausibly see a, a significant pullback that may well test the edge of the arc there to round about $1,300. Well, we've fallen all the way from nearly $3,000, I think it was, to 1668. So, it's actually not that far off that downside target area. But, more importantly, from any, you know, more importantly than, than the actual price, is to answer this question, you know, do you actually need to think about owning platinum? Is it outperforming gold? Because the way to play a gold bull era is to hold gold and then hold, um, assets that are outperforming gold for a period of time during the gold bull era. So, it, okay, let's ask the question. Is, is platinum outperforming gold? This ratio says no, it's not. It's not going to be in a clear bull market versus gold until it breaks out through the orange circle or yellow circle, whatever you want to call that color. When we move above the 4-year moving average, that's the green line. When we move above the red resistance line, the black resistance line, and the Ichimoku cloud, which are all in that circle, if and when we move through those, then we have a weight of evidence, not just one piece of evidence, not just crossing one single line, but it's a weight of evidence, and that's far superior to, you know, just, just drawing a single line on the chart saying, "Oh, we've crossed that line, so therefore it's going to do great." Where you get a weight of evidence, an evidence cluster, just as we had up here, the opposite way around, moving average, Ichimoku cloud, support line, ratio broke below it. So, that told us at that point, even though the ratio did pop back to the upside, that was just a back test. In this situation here, we knew that weakness was, was there for platinum. And as soon as we had that successful back test and it started to go back down again, that's a very, very clear signal not to be in platinum anymore and to either move to cash, another asset, or, or gold, because from that point onwards in 2007, platinum underperformed gold by, uh, what have we got? 87%? Platinum lost 87, 88% of its value versus, uh, versus gold. That's why these ratio charts are so, so powerful.
Okay, copper is one that I want to look at because it's in the SRS and it's been outperforming gold and silver. The ratio charts for copper are, uh, moving in favor of copper versus gold and silver. So, we've got the copper, we've got copper in the SRS. The profit limit is $8, and the chart still looks fine. It's, it's progressing slowly towards that $8 area. You would expect corrections and pullbacks along the way, and in fact, we saw a, a quite a marked one there when we got a red candle backtesting the breakout, but, uh, copper still looks perfectly okay on that chart, and, uh, so the copper miners as well. Uh, if we look at, um, I mean, we've got all these, all these base metals, nickel, for example, um, not broken out yet. Uh, tin futures, that one is bullish, and it is above the moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud. You can go through all these base metals other than nickel there. I think, uh, many of them, uh, tin, aluminum, aluminum, uh, steel, all looking, uh, bullish above their moving averages, above the Ichimoku cloud. Yeah, they're, you know, pulling back and consolidating, but they, they all look pretty good.
Now, zinc is an interesting one as well. Zinc futures, um, or WisdomTree zinc in this case, actually, um, continuing to move to the upside. I've got WisdomTree zinc here on here because it's playable on the London Stock Exchange, for example. You should be able to get that through your broker. That looks fine, and, um, zinc versus gold is now following the path that I had said it would need to follow if we want to turn bullish on, properly bullish on zinc. So, we've broken back above this red, what was a support line, then it became a resistance line, now it's support again. So, if we push through this black descending resistance line, then I think we can be a little bit more confident that zinc is in a, in a good place versus, versus gold.
Um, okay, uranium. Want to take a look at uranium spot futures. Still just doing its thing, consolidating, forming a handle in the top right-hand corner of this arc, and in my view, preparing for the next big upside move based on the weight of evidence. The Global X Uranium ETF is just bouncing around in where we hit the target area. It's pulled back to support, and it's just, I think, consolidating over time for the next significant move. All of which is pretty irrelevant what I think because we're not heavily in uranium other than, well, we've got some in the TNS and the DPM, but it's not, not huge positions. Cameco's up by about 600% last time I looked, which is great, but in terms of the SRS and taking trades in the uranium sector, it's the wrong thing to do until or unless we break through that red circle, because until or unless we break through that red circle, the uranium miners are underperforming gold. And so, therefore, why objectively, why would you want to take positions in the uranium miners if we know for a fact that they're underperforming gold? We've got an evidence cluster here. We, you know, if we pass through that red circle, we'll be above the moving average, above the Ichimoku cloud, and very importantly, we'll have broken through the resistance levels. So, that will be when we want to be in the uranium miners, and that's how we avoid, um, you know, all, all this sort of time decay, if you want to call it that way, or, you know, you're invested in something and it goes up, down, up, down, up, down. Frustrates the hell out of you for, in this case, um, a number of years, um, versus gold. You know, you, you could have been positioned in gold and doing better. Okay, so that's uranium.
Um, the soft commodities, there's nothing too exciting in the soft commodities, really. Uh, oat futures, um, kind of sums up a lot of them, really. Tried to break out, has pulled back again. Um, probably preparing for a, a very big future upside breakout there, but it hasn't happened yet. Uh, some of them, like wheat, for example, did break out through a declining resistance line, but not really enough to get us too excited yet. And, uh, the chart for wheat is incredibly volatile. And if you're using moving averages or the Ichimoku Cloud, it's just very difficult to get in quick enough to, to benefit. But if we can, and also because Ichimoku Cloud is so far above the current price action, by the time you get above it, you know, a, a large part of the move is probably done. So, it is very difficult to, to play some of these, um, when they're so volatile. I mean, the ultimate, ult, you know, the one that's ultimately volatile is, is natural gas, of course, which is almost unplayable. When you look at the natural gas chart, um, coffee futures as well, um, just consolidating, pulling back still at the moment. Same for cocoa. We've seen a pullback, quite a significant bounce here, but it looks to me as though it's likely to roll over and move back down. And probably happier if we form a bigger falling wedge here that comes back down to these black lines again, uh, black support lines, and then we get a future breakout in, let's say, a couple of years' time. That would be much more playable. Um, the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund is pulling back still at the moment and forming this expanding wedge pattern. So, uh, commodities, generally, are in a corrective pattern.
And of course, oil, when we look at oil, we've communicated this very clearly to you. I think that the breakout would lead to a move to the $100 plus area, and then we would likely see a correction, consolidation, before future upside moves in the years ahead. So, the consolidation might take another few months. It might take another year or two. We don't know, but what we do know is that technical chart, technical chart will tell us when the next opportunity is in the sector. We've got oil and energy plays and stocks, of course, and they can do well when oil and energy consolidate, and you can, you know, during this entire period since the breakout 2021, there have been plenty of plays in the oil and energy sector that have done perfectly well despite the corrective, big corrective pullback there. Now that we're at a slightly higher price level, consolidating above the 70-75 area, if that continues to be the case, then those oil and energy plays may well continue to do just fine. Regardless, they are in the TNS with, I think, overall something like a 9 and a half% NAV risk in the TNS. Not all of those are oil and energy plays, so we'll keep the NAV risk well contained for you for the time being.
As we move on now through the charts to the US dollar index, that's breaking to the upside, and this is another warning sign for >> [clears throat] >> for precious metals, commodities, and so on, because the US dollar index rising strongly may well prove to be a headwind. Certainly is at the, at the moment. We've seen this steady move up, and if we break up strongly above, let's say, 102, then we could very well be targeting an eventual move to 111 or thereabouts, which would have, which would have consequences, of course. So, it's important for us to keep a close eye on where the, the monthly closes on the US dollar index. Here, if we zoom in onto the weekly time frame, you can see on the weekly chart there, it's a little bit more sort of erratic, and there's sort of violations of the support and resistance line there, but you get the same general idea is that the price action has been in some kind of a consolidation pattern, is now starting to break to the upside.
The other currencies versus the US dollar. This is the Euro dollar, which broke out quite clearly on the monthly time frame here, but is now pulling back towards, again, it looks like some sort of pattern forming here, which may be an expanding wedge pattern, which they tend to be quite volatile, of course, as time goes by, the price swings become more dramatic. So, that's the Euro dollar, perhaps heading towards around about 113. The Swiss franc versus the US dollar is a major breakout back here, back in April of March, April of last year. Now, we've, uh, been consolidating for quite a period of time, and again, we may well have some sort of expanding wedge pattern there. Time will tell. See how that, how that plays out. And the pound versus the US dollar, also, if I zoom out on the monthly time frame, that is a breakout there from the downtrending resistance zone. But if we zoom right in and take a look on the weekly time frame, the corrective pattern now that we're in the top right, towards the top right-hand corner of this arc, we may see the price falling below, or the ratio falling below 130, 132, 131 and a half, 131, 1.315, just depends what sort of a pattern is building out here, but it's, it's definitely showing weakness. And what I would say here, trying to give some definite guidance, until or unless we break above that red line, then the path of least resistance is, is to the downside. So, we need to see a break above about 130, 1.365, before I would turn bullish again. So, we've been bullish, we're now neutral to neutral to slightly bearish on the small time frame. On the larger time frame, it is, it's much more bullish, but on that shorter time frame, we just have to stay on the bearish side of neutral until we can get above about 136 or thereabouts.
Aussie dollar versus the US dollar, that saw a breakout, as you can see. It's pulling back, could do a full back test to the breakout. Going to have to wait and see on that. The Canadian dollar versus the US dollar is looking weak here and moving down again. Didn't get the breakout yet. Japanese yen versus the US dollar looks weak, and the US dollar versus the Indian rupee looks, looks strong. I should do that one the other way around, shouldn't I? The rupee versus the dollar, so it's much as the other, but you get the picture. The US dollar looks stronger there. If that turns out to be a false breakout to the upside, then that would have very big implications. Keep an eye on that.
Um, the S&P 500 is looking strong still. We, on this weekly time frame chart, have broken out above that green line that I've been highlighting for a long time now. We are in that potential melt-up scenario. We, as long as we stay above that green line, it's all fine. So, that green line is currently at somewhere around about 7,250, maybe. So, as long as the price action is above that, then we have every opportunity to move, to move towards the, um, 8,000 to, um, well, well above 8,000. I'll would say closer to 9,000 area.
Taking a look at the Nasdaq, and the Nasdaq is also doing just fine. This is on the weekly timeframe. We normally look at it on the monthly timeframe. Normally look at most of the charts on the monthly timeframe, but, uh, it's good to, to look at, um, these, uh, stock market charts on weekly timeframes for the, um, for the smaller, you know, for the, for the smaller detail. Because what we're looking for now, what we, we know we're in a big picture uptrend. We don't need the big picture charts for that. What we now need to look for is a breakdown developing from the uptrend. And that would happen first on the daily and the weekly timeframes. I mean, daily is probably a little bit too down in the weeds because we very often see pullbacks on the daily timeframe. But on this weekly timeframe, the important, one of the important support lines, I'm just going to go back onto the monthly, actually. On the, on the monthly chart, we've got an important support line around about, uh, 25,000, I don't know, 25,900, that kind of area. Um, if we zoom in on the weekly timeframe, get a little bit more detail, you would probably want to adjust that support line a little bit, um, just to get it in the right place there, and it's, it's somewhere close to on the weekly timeframe, anywhere around about 24,600. So, we'll keep a close eye on that, and, uh, if we get any meaningful breakdown, we'll let you know. But for the time being, um, the stock markets look just, uh, fine. Um, and they're, they're all giving much the same sort of picture.
The Hang Seng hasn't yet, um, broken to the upside. That's one exception. The Hang Seng looks weak, and is now breaking down below support. We've refused to be bullish on the Hang Seng for quite a while now after we hit that confluence of, um, resistance on the, on the monthly time frame chart there. If I just put the candles on, there's a confluence of resistance there, and now we're starting to break down. So, um, [snorts] a reminder to take good note of where these resistance levels are. We will turn bullish again if we can break above the, the red and the black lines, um, and then that would put it on a trajectory to continue moving strongly to the upside over the, over the years ahead. But, for the time being, that's not the case.
The Chinese stock market is trending towards the target that I had there of 4,430. Um, but, there's no, there's no real incentive to be playing the Chinese stock market because it is underperforming the Nasdaq, as you can see on this ratio chart here. The ratio of Chinese stocks to US tech stocks is dropping, which means US tech stocks are winning in a very big way. Um, the ASX chart still looks fine above that blue support line. No major issues there on the weekly time frame. You can see that, um, a little bit of a short-lived kind of breakdown there below the monthly support line, but we've recovered that level, and, uh, it's looking okay.
Um, moving on to cryptocurrencies, and Bitcoin on the weekly time frame. I'm just going to, um, in fact, I'm going to go all the way down to the daily time frame, zoom in, and I don't know what's going on here. It was a little bit of a wedge forming. We've broken to the upside. Now, we're moving back down again. Perhaps it's a, as a rising channel that's morphing into existence here. It makes a little bit more sense. But, it's right on that support line. If I zoom out onto the, perhaps the monthly time frame, that support resistance level, um, probably, I'll do it on the weekly time frame there. It's, it's in that area where we are now, around about 63 to 65,000, that is important. And if we start to fall significantly below this, let's say below 60,000, then that would be a, a fairly clear sort of breakdown here in the monthly close below the previous monthly high here back in 2021. Um, that was a previous bull market there. Well, that's the latest bull market, but the one before that, the highest close that we saw was, highest monthly close was, um, let me just see if I can get the numbers for you. So, the close there was 61,343. Is that the highest? I think it might have been. Yeah, 61,343. If we start moving much below 61,000 on a, on a monthly closing basis, then that would be below the peak of the last but one bull market. Uh, and that's not happened before. So, that would be a change of the structural pattern, the big picture structural pattern for, uh, Bitcoin. Notice on the monthly time frame, the stock RSI is looking like it wants to turn down again there. Um, and on the daily chart, it's, um, it's already sort of moving down there. So, Bitcoin looks fairly weak.
Ethereum also looks weak on the, on the weekly time frame. We've broken down below a critical support zone, um, and this looks destined to move lower. My initial target area was $1,100. Um, and till, until or unless we break back above that support zone, then the target remains, the next target remains $1,100. Uh, Bitcoin versus Nasdaq is looking very weak. Um, looks terrible, in fact. Um, Bitcoin is losing massively to the Nasdaq. Um, so, cryptos and Bitcoin, we've advised since late last year, actually, to, um, to, to give them a bit of a wide berth, and hopefully we've managed to convince many of you to do that and, and save yourselves from a drawdown of, um, uh, so far 50% or so over a long period of time.
Um, the rest of the charts haven't really changed since the previous monthly roundups. There's no new, um, changes there. Things like the 10-year yield, for example, are still within that, uh, consolidation pattern. Um, and if we put it on the monthly timeframe there, you can see that sort of flag pattern that's been forming on the monthly chart there, and we're still in that, what I would broadly describe as a, a sort of consolidation flag type pattern. If we start to move above the 5% area, then the 10-year yield would be in a, likely to be in a, a new developing uptrend. We would need to break below about 3 and a half% um, in order to signal a more major downside move for the 10-year yield.
So, hopefully that's covered a lot of the bases for you in a little bit more detail than we normally look at, and, uh, we'll cover a lot more, of course, in the coming week, and, um, keeping a close eye on the correction in the precious metals, keeping a close eye on the continuing, um, correction and downtrend for cryptocurrencies, and the whole capital rotation thesis is under review, of course, as it always is continually, as we see the gold to S&P ratio pulling back. But, I'm not going to worry too much at the moment because the roadmaps are playing out extremely well. The gold roadmap, the silver roadmap, the capital rotation roadmap, they're all playing out as we would, as we would wish, but it just gets a little bit, you know, of course, you're going to start getting a little bit twitchy as you get these big pullbacks taking place, but of course that's perfectly normal price action. So, we're going to stay the course and just follow the evidence that the charts present us without any bias at all. Just let the charts speak for themselves.
Okay, that's it from me. I wish you a great weekend, and we'll no doubt speak again very soon. Bye-bye for now. >> [music]