Transcription
And everything I can see, and it means we're going to have more inflation in the world, not just in the US, going forward, because most governments in the world will have lots of free money, lots of easy money now. And when everybody has easy money, that historically has usually led to more inflation. And if you ask me, it is going to lead to more inflation again. Don't sell yourself.
It is August 25th, 2025, and my guest today is Jim Rogers. Jim, thank you so much for coming on the show, my friend. My pleasure, Danny. My, I'm flattered. Let's go ahead and dive in, Jim. For you right now, what is front and center on your radar screen? I know there's a lot of different uh things jumping out at us at the same time, but what are you most uh fixated on, focused on right now?
Well, the American stock market, which is the most important, has had its longest period in history. The entire history of America has never had such a long good period in the stock market. Now, Mr. Trump says it's going to go on forever. He's solved everything. Don't worry. That makes me worry even more.
Right. And now you have this announcement from um Fed Chair Jerome Powell claiming that they will be cutting the interest rate. What does that portend to the markets and the economy as a whole?
Well, I mean, investors like easy money. Everybody likes easy money, especially investors, because there's more to throw into the stocks and other investments. So, the market seems to think this is good news. Hooray, hooray, buy, sold everything. I am perplexed. I am confused and I am worried and I'm wrong so far.
So, the last time we spoke, I believe you sold all of your US stocks. Have you completely sold all of your stocks now at this point? No. No. All my US stocks. I'm sorry. I thought we were talking about the US. Gotcha. Gotcha.
And when it comes to the Fed cutting rates and investors, you know, liking this uh easy money environment. You look at the last few rate cuts, especially during times of crisis. It's usually after the Fed cuts rates that you see these moments in crisis. It's as if the Fed is a little too late, or it's as if it sends a negative signal to the economy that the economy is not doing so well if the Fed justifies cutting interest rates. Kind of like the doctor prescribing you medicine when you go see the doctor. The fact that he prescribes you medicine implies that you're an unhealthy individual.
Well, Danny, I mean, you're smarter than I am. At least I hope you are. Uh, so I mean, what do we know? I'm with the people in Washington think they know what they're doing. They rarely, very rarely have they known what they're doing, but they have the power to cut interest rates and loosen the purse strings. They can have they can flood the world with money and they're doing it. And everybody likes a lot of free easy money and it's going into the investment world right now, right? It will continue it, it seems for a while.
And what does that imply for the longer end of the yield curve? You do see the 10-year and the 30-year not or did not respond in tandem with the Fed funds rate last year when the Fed cut rates. If you recall, the Fed cut rates about 100 basis points in in totality from around this time all the way out into the end of the year. But the 10-year yield did not budge. The 30-year did not budge. It actually went a little up. What What does that mean when the market doesn't buy into the Fed's uh narrative?
Well, historically or traditionally, the market's smarter than all of us. And the market says, "Okay guys, we like your story, but we don't buy it and we're not playing. We're not going to play." Which may be a sign that we are coming to the end. And I'm of the view we're coming to the end, but the mark that may mean the market thinks also we're coming to the end, but we don't seem to be there yet.
Are you able to kind of project like how how close are we? What ending do you anticipate we're in right now? You know, before we come to the end, gosh, Dan, I wish I were that smart. Well, wouldn't it be wonderful if I were that smart? I don't know. I know we're getting closer to the end, but the market is always smarter than I am or certainly always proves how little I know. And I don't know if it's going to go on another week, another year. It doesn't seem to be ending yet. I have not sold short anything. By the way, I don't have any shorts, but I have a lot of cash in US dollars.
I see. Now, speaking of Trump and uh the his economy, we saw the US government take up a stake uh at Intel of 10%. So, this is I don't believe there's been a precedence for something like this, at least in recent memory, here in the United States. What precedence is this uh outlining here? Is this a new direction that President Trump and the United States wants to go down? Is this more of a China uh direction where you have the state capitalism in play?
Well, I you were exactly right. You are perceptive. I don't like it. I didn't know that the US was now going to become even more socialist than it has been in the past. But that's a sign of socialist economies when the government owns lots of companies. Now, it's not lots yet, but it might be the camel putting his nose under the tent. And I wish it weren't happening, but Mr. Trump's going to do what Mr. Trump's going to do.
So, do you think Intel is just the start of a buying spree from the US government? Oh, I'm sure it when somebody gets in trouble, they're going to call up as fast as they can. Washington say, "You did it for them. Here we are. We need a few help, a little money, too. Give us some." No, I'm sure it's going to get much, much worse or better, depending on how you look at it. I see it as worse.
Yeah. Well, if the government starts owning stakes in companies, they effectively have a Hello, I'm here. Oh. Oh, yeah. So, as I was sorry, it just cut out for a second. So if the if the government uh owns stakes in various companies, it effectively means that they have skin in the game. Doesn't that incentivize them to keep the market going to the upside? That is wouldn't that incentivize them to print even more money and keep the nominal price up or or no? Or would it be out of their control whether it goes up or down?
So happy days are here again. We never have to worry again. Oh my gosh, Danny. They will love you in Washington. If you ask me, this is a very unfortunate bad thing. I don't want the US government, any government owning American industry, American companies, but this is the first step forward and I'm afraid we're going to have more of it. That's not what I when I was in, you know, civics, we didn't talk about America government owning American economy. We talked about that as bad things in places like Britain or someplace or Russia. It wasn't America. Now it's becoming America.
Does this imply we're heading into a wartime economy? Is the US preparing to Is the reason why they're buying in buying stakes at Intel? Potentially buying stakes at their other companies. Is that is this because we're getting ready to go to war?
Well, I don't see cause and effect, but we may well be stumbling into war. I mean, we see lots of small wars around. Historically, when you have a lot of small wars, something happens usually or often and suddenly you have a big war that may be on the way to that. I see worrisome signs. I don't particularly like what I see, but I have to deal with facts, not what I want. And it does look to me like we may be stumbling more and more closer to a big war.
What are those worrisome signs? Well, I mean, you just mentioned it there. We have several little wars going on around the world and America's getting more and more assertive, if we use that term, saying it's for our own good. We're saving the world. Mr. Trump is saving the world and we have more and more little wars developing.
What do you make of this recent development in the Ukraine theater? You have these meetings between Trump and Putin. You had the meeting between Trump and the EU leaders last week. Are things heading in a positive direction there or or is this smoke and mirrors? Is this meant to deceive?
Um, if you look at some recent uh kinetic actions within the Ukraine front, you'll not you'll notice that Russia has not let up in its uh in its war against Ukraine and neither is Ukraine. Washington tells us this is good. It's good for America. It's good for the world. I doubt it. I don't particularly like it. You look back at previous periods. You look back to the Second World War. There were all sorts of little wars here and there and over there and the next thing they became big wars. It's often happened that way. You look at the First World War, that's what happened. There were lots of wars and the next thing you had a big war. I'm extremely worried about what I'm seeing happening in the world because I think I've seen it before and I don't see anybody in Washington that is worried. They all say, "Don't worry, we have things under control." I know they don't. Just makes me worry even more.
I mean, how are they so hubris though? Why? But why are they so confident in themselves? I mean, can't they see the the evidence in front of their own eyes? Like you like you just uh elucidated, Danny?
They're smarter than you and me. They're smarter than all of us. Don't you know that? If you don't know that, you just ask them and they will tell you that they're smarter than all of us. And don't worry, they know what they're doing. Now, you look back at history, look back at history, they always think they're smarter than everybody else. And they are smarter than everybody else until the next thing you know, they're saying, "Oh my god, how do we get into this war? How do we get out? They all want to get out, but then there's no way."
Yeah. They they get they get stuck in a game theory ordeal where they they have no choice but to escalate. Um, but what speaking of war and the fact that we are heading are heading into a war cycle. I mean, this is kind of sound this is going to sound kind of cold to say, but what what are uh what are the beneficiaries of an environment like this? Like it c it certainly can't be growth stocks for example. What what assets can can catch war as a tailwind um that investors can put on their radar screen?
Well, war has never been good for anybody. Even the people who think they win wars don't, because it costs staggering amounts of money, assets, huge numbers of assets are spent or lost. So, no, no, war has never been I mean, a few people make a few bucks. Yes. Always. And even if you win, you usually wind up worse off than you were before. Yes, you won the war, but it cost a huge amount of lives and money and everything else. So, no, I don't. If you look back at every war, just about every war in history, there have been very few beneficiaries in the long run.
Mhm. Does gold? I mean, gold certainly is one of the few beneficiaries of war. Anytime we see escalations in any theater of war, we start seeing uh gold catch a a strong bid. And that effectively is because it's it's a crisis hedge. When crisis occurs, people flock to gold. Um, what are some other ones that you would say? Oil as well perhaps. You know, war to me is some there's never been a deflationary war. It's always been inflationary.
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Well, I bought more silver recently. I did not. I own gold. I didn't. I've not sold any. Didn't buy any gold. It's making all-time highs. Silver's still down substantially from its all-time high. So, I have bought more silver recently.
So, what of the what do you make of the miners as well? Is are those attractive enough for you, too? I'm too lazy. If you are not lazy and if you know what you're doing, oh my gosh, you can make staggering amounts of money if you buy the right miners. If you buy the right people and the right mine at the right place, you'll make much much more than if you just buy silver or gold. But you have to know what you're doing because if you buy the wrong mine, you're going to lose everything.
And what of uh platinum? Do do you what's your view on? Platinum is great. I don't own platinum, but sure, if you know what you're doing, buy it. Buy it. Buy it. And saying that the definition of a gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar standing at the top. Be sure you know what you're doing.
Right now, uh, with this I mean I I guess with this uh recent move or recent announcement by uh Jerome Powell u our our next stop is is the is the growth side of things. I'm looking at the markets today. Crypto is down and it also appears that the market indices have also cooled down. I mean, I may be eating my words by the time this gets published, but why uh in your view, why why have the the markets, the grow the high-end, not high-end, but the the growth stocks, the fast-moving stocks, um why haven't they fully uh appears to have bought in? Again, I may be eating my words by by the time this gets up, but as of right now, um it looks like the indices are down.
Well, many of those stocks have already had big moves. I mean, it's not as though you are not the only person noticing what's going on. I mean, many markets, many stocks around the world have had moves already. This this bull market has been going on since 2009 and many companies around the world have have had good moves and are having good moves. I repeat, I am not selling short. Maybe I should be, but I have not started selling short yet.
Understood. Um, one more thing actually. You look at several of these data, uh, including like M2 money supply. You'll notice M2 money supply is now back at all-time highs. What role does the money supply play in inflation expectations, uh, economic activity, etc. And considering the fact that we are now at a rebounded all-time high and the money supply, what is that a leading indicator for?
Well, many people have done studies that show you lots of easy money has got to go somewhere and it usually goes into goods and prices go higher. Lots of loose money, easy money has often led to inflation. It probably will. I suspect it will again. I certainly would not sell inflation short. If anything, I expect more in the future.
So you so you anticipate more inflation in the future. Is that because of the M2 money supply growth or is there some other factor that you're seeing? All of the above. I mean, every country, nearly every country in the world, nobody is trying to cut back on the economy or on growth or on prosperity. No, I don't know of any country that is trying to cool things off. Everybody is happy, happy, happy. And that's great. I like being happy. I like for everybody to be happy. But I know when everybody is happy, we ought to start asking questions, right?
But it does it seem more like happiness or an act of desperation? A few months ago, President Trump pretty much shed fiscal conservatism from his mortal coil. He's he said he's he's going all in on growing the economy, on on growth, and the the budget, the deficit be damned. And so it appears that they are they they know they're closing in on a death spiral, but their big gamble is to throw as much growth into the fire as possible and hope they outrun uh the dead. Is that possible? Can they do it?
It hasn't been historically. Normally, if you throw a lot more kerosene onto a fire, it usually have a hotter fire than everything I can see. It means we're going to have more inflation in the world, not just in the US, going forward, because most governments in the world will have lots of free money, lots of easy money now. And when everybody has easy money, that historically has usually led to more inflation. And if you ask me, it is going to lead to more inflation again. Don't sell your silver.
And you look at But if you look at the CPI numbers recently, they're a bit lower than expected. The PPI numbers were a little higher than expected. Are we about to see the PPI number or is the PPI today's or tomorrow's CPI? Are we about to see producers pass over the increase cost to consumers and thereby increase the CPI? Is is that what we can look forward to? And you know, why haven't we seen this this move up in the CPI yet?
I know your butler does your shopping, but if you go to the shop, you will find out that prices are going up and continue to go up. Ask your butler. You'll know what's happening in the world. Don't ask Washington. Ask your butler.
Yeah. Well, uh, this has been a fascinating discussion here, Jim. Anything else that you want to get into before we sign things off here?
Well, Danny, it's your show. I talk whatever you want, but I do know I don't know anything, but I am concerned. I am worried. I have a lot of cash, a lot of US and it's US dollars, not other currencies. And because normally when there's a problem, people look for a safe haven. Many people in the world still consider the US dollar a safe haven. It's not. The US is the largest de-flation in the history of the world. But most people still consider the US dollar a safe haven. So I own a lot of US dollars. If and when problems come and the dollar goes up, I hope I'm smart enough to sell it. Now, your next question should be, okay, where will you put your money? And Danny, I don't have an answer. For one time in my life, I don't know where to put my money if I sell my US dollars. I don't see another currency at the moment. I own gold. I own silver. Sure, I can do more of that. But I am looking for another currency which is going to compete with the US dollar. And I don't know what it is yet. Theoretically, it would be the Chinese currency, but it's not a convertible currency yet. It's getting more convertible, but it's still not a fully convertible currency. So, you cannot have an international currency that's not convertible. So, I don't know. If you know the answer, please do not announce it on the show. Send me a private email.
What What about this uh much talked about BRICS basket currency? How how soon could they get this thing out live? And uh could that be a potential candidate as well?
Well, we have had basket currencies in the past. Historically, they have not worked. Hooray. I hope it works. I don't own whatever the basket currency is going to be because I'm skeptical knowing the historical precedents. They usually don't work. I see. Currencies. The things that become money or the safe haven are usually a single focused currency or product such as gold or silver. That's what historically has happened.
And why are you choosing silver or why are you more favorable over silver uh now as opposed to? I own silver and I own gold. It's just that silver is down. Silver's down 40% from its all-time high. Gold is making all-time highs. I own them both. But if I were buying one today, I would buy silver because it's it looks cheaper. Who knows if I know what I'm doing, but I'm just telling you the numbers would indicate that silver is cheaper.
So around this time last year, there was this announcement of a Russian silver reserve. And now a few days ago, there appears to have been some silver buying on the part of the Saudi Arabian central bank. They bought something around the tune of $30 million of shares in SLV. Now, why would the Saudi Arabian central bank be interested in buying silver, albeit in the form of an ETF, but silver nonetheless?
Well, maybe they also know that silver is down and gold is not. I don't think I'm the only person that knows that. But listen, I don't speak to the Saudis. You have to ask them. But I do know that they can go on their computer every day and see that silver is down a lot from its all-time high and gold is making new all-time highs. So maybe they think like I do.
Yeah, it's very fascinating seeing seeing like these uh sovereign countries because they were I mean they were the effective movers of the price of gold uh the last few years or so. You you look at things like bullion sales to retailers, there really wasn't much of an uptick. But you look at um you you look at like central bank buying and institutions buying, it's really that side of the table that's been driving the price up. So are they now sinking their uh toe into the silver pond? I guess we'll have to wait and see. But uh Jim, thank you so much for coming on, my friend. It's always a pleasure having you. Juan, is there anything else? Is there any like website you'd like to put out there? Any, you know, final comment before we wrap up?
Don't have anything to sell, Danny. No, it's always fun to talk to you. I don't know the central banks. I know they have a lot of money and we have to pay attention to what they're doing. And at the moment, if they're buying silver, array, I own silver. I bought more silver recently, too. I'm not selling my gold. If gold goes down, I will certainly buy more gold.
All right. Well, Jim, thank you so much for coming on, guys. If you enjoyed this podcast, give us a like and comment. Go Jim, go in the comment section if you agreed or disagreed. Uh, let me know in the comment section. I read every comment. Let me know your thoughts and also subscribe to the channel so you don't miss an episode. And liking, subscribing, commenting. All of this goes a long way in helping push this video, this channel, and this message out into the YouTube algorithm. So, your help is much appreciated. And then finally, check us out on Substack at capitalcosm.substack.com for all of our content early at free and uncensored for the videos that warrant it. So, with all that said, thank you guys for watching and I will catch you later. Bye. Keep up the good work, Danny. The more we know.