Live Q&A Session with Oliver Velez

Boom boom boom. Wait two. Let's do two. Boom. All right. Traders, welcome, welcome, Traders. Happy Monday. Happy live Q&A Mondays. Okay, I've missed you. Been on a tiny, small vacation last week, so wasn't able to join you live last week, but I'm back. I'm back. So welcome, guys. Come on in, make yourselves comfortable, as I'm always fond of saying. Grab the beverage of your choice; maybe even take something to take notes with. Wow. Welcome to all of my, uh, my premium people here. Goated. Welcome, Rayo. Welcome, Jovin. Welcome all my, uh, premium members here. That's awesome. It's nice seeing your seeing you here.

All right, guys. Yes, so I am back. Uh, we are in very interesting times for financial markets, actually worldwide, and all of them actually. We are one day away from the US presidential election, um, which is a very, very, always a very interesting time every four years, especially as it relates to the market. And I think, I think I'd like to start off, guys, if I can, by giving you some by giving you some historical cyclical, often repetitive occurrences, and and I think that every Market players should have their finger on the pulse, for lack of a better phrase, of these cyclical tendencies. Okay, so let me start off with that, and then I will take your questions. Okay. And, um, so I would suggest that you write some of these things down. All right.

So number one, as it relates to presidential elections, the markets tend to historically act a little weak right before presidential elections. Not every single time, but if you were to go, go over the markets historically for decades, you'll find that the market, Market tends to soften right before an election. Now, especially a contentious reelection. Okay. Markets weaken. The reason why markets weaken right before presidential elections is because buying steps back. Do you understand? So commitment steps back. Markets don't really like uncertainty, so there's not certainty about who's going to be the president of the largest economy in the world, right? You don't have certainty until after the election. The highest degree of uncertainty is right before the election, and because of that, institutions in particular back off. So they're like, you know, why should I make any major commitment now, a week before, 3 days before, 2 days before, for 10 days before? Why should I make a big commitment when all I have to do is basically just wait to find out who's going to be in and and make my start making my big commitments after that? Why do I need to do it now? So because this buying, in this pocket, because the buying stops, any little bit of selling causes is an overreaction. You understand what I'm saying? Now, remember, every sell is a buy, but if the buyers step back in numbers, then the buy orders get thinned out, and so even a regular sell now has a more, um, exaggerated effect on the price down because the traffic jam on your buy, business bids gets thinned out. You see, when the buy bids under the market are very thick, it's it takes a lot of selling to get through all those levels, right? But when you thin those buy levels out, then getting through this level, boom, gets easier, easier, easier, easier with just even a small amount of selling. So selling is actually something that never stops. This is how I want you, I want you to understand this about markets: selling never stops. Buying can stop, not that it can stop per se, but buyers can step back. Sellers don't really step back, and I'll explain to you why. There is, when, when someone sells, there are myriad reasons for selling. It could be like, shoot, my grandmother went into the went into the the hospital, her insurance doesn't cover the procedures, so I'm going to kick in, I need to sell some stock, or I need to sell this da da da da da da da, right? It could be like, well, you know, the holidays are coming up. All right, um, I'm going to sell off a a a little bit of this for the holiday holidays. It could be, I think the the Market's overbought; I think the Market's going to collapse. It can be for a variety of reasons, but when you buy, there is only one reason. You understand? When you buy, there can only be one reason: you buy because you believe that in the future this buy will look low. That's the only reason. You're not buying thinking that, oh, I'm buying now because I know the Market's going to be lower. No, you're buying now because you believe that at some point in the future the market is higher from where you're buying. So there's only one reason to buy, while there's a zillion silly reasons, some good reasons, but a lot of silly reasons to sell; a lot of reasons that have nothing to do with the market. Someone might need to sell even though they think the market is going to go up; they might have to. Some people sell because I have a tax bill. Some people sell because I have a vacation. Some people sell because my twin daughters are going to University at the same time. But there's only one reason to buy, and that reason is: Market's going up. And so selling never stops; you never get a back off in selling because all the reasons of Life are always there, but you can get a pullback in buying because a big portion of Market participants can say, you know what, I'm not buying right now, presidential elections 4 days from now, 2 days from now, 10 days from now. Why commit now? Why not just let that go, and then I have more certainty afterwards? And so this is the tendency; this is why cyclically markets tend to soften right before presidential election time: the buyers step back and say, well, I commit now, while the normal selling for all the silly reasons never stop, and that little bit of selling can have this over-exaggerated effect in the market because the buyers are thin. Do you understand? The traffic jam is not thick anymore. Okay, so it's very important to understand.

Second thing I want to make you aware of is this: historically, the first year of any pres, US presidential election term, elected term I should say, the first year is overwhelmingly bullish, overwhelmingly so. If you were to measure by US presidential term standards, right? If you were to measure, measure what's the odds of year 1 up versus year 2 up versus year 3 up versus year 4 up, overwhelmingly it is year number one. Market's up. Now, knowing this can be extraordinarily valuable. Do you understand? Because at the end of the day, all we are are odds players. We can't read the future, but we can read odds. Do you understand? We can place ourselves on the side of the better odds, and then the rest becomes a numbers game and and trade management, trade management and maths. That's it. Which way does the math skew? Does it skew to the upside or downside? Okay, if the math skews to the upside, I'm going to play to the upside. Now, that doesn't guarantee a win, so I need trade management, and that's it. That's all we are as Market speculators, guys. We're odds assessors, and we let the numbers work out the way they work out, and we use trade management to weed out the bad decisions. That's it. And we let the good ones go. That's trading in a nutshell. That's Market play at a nutshell, right? Okay.

Um, what are some other cyclical things I think you should be aware of? Um, September is statistically the worst month of the year. You should be aware of that. Not all, not every year, but most Septembers are negative. Okay. Um, the worst three-month period of the year is, I would say it's not a clean 3 months; it's the latter part of July, yeah, so it's the latter part of July into the early part of October. So that's the softest, the statistically weakest in terms of negative prices of the entire year, most years, not every year, but most years. Now, the most bullish three-month period of the year is the latter part of October, so it literally takes the Baton from Mr. weak period, latter part of July into the early part of October, passes the Baton to the strongest 3-month period, latter part of October into the beginning part of January. And so it's almost like a V, right? Late, look at, look at the V. Late July, August, September, October, past the [Music] Baton, late, um, late October, November, December, January. So it's a V, boom. It's like this. Okay. All right. So it's important to know these cycles. The most bullish month, this waffles sometimes. You see, the most bullish month statistically is May, but it can be edged out by February, sometimes March, sometimes. So that one flip-flops a little bit, but I would have to say that May does marginally beat out the other months, but it's so small that that one doesn't really matter as much. Okay.

Important things to know when, when it comes to Bitcoin. All right, the last, the year after the halving year is by far the most explosive year of its four-year cycle. So the same way the presidential election term is a 4-year cycle, Bitcoin operates on the same 4-year cycle. So the presidential election year is positive for Bitcoin, but the next year is the most explosive year for Bitcoin. It's the, remember like I said in the presidential term, the first year of the president's term, no matter who's in, the first year is the most bullish year of the four-year term, um, statistically. It's a it's a very powerfully bullish year. Bitcoin operates on the same cycle, so the halving occurs on the presidential election year, and the next year, even though that year is positive almost always, the next year is the exponential year for Bitcoin, which is the first year of the US presidential term. Now, one of the reasons for that is that money printing, money starts flowing all over the place because the US president has to now start trying to to do things to keep his promises, so money just starts flying all over the place. This increase in the money supply decreases the purchasing power, and the purchasing power decreases raises the value of hard assets. So the hardest asset is Bitcoin; that's going to rise the most, and then you have other hard assets, real estate, stocks, okay, gold, but Gold's not so much because the increase in the money supply, um, causes people to go further out on the risk curve, so gold is really looked at more as a safety measure, um, whereas that if you're going out further on the risk curve, you're going to leave gold behind. That is why gold underperforms these periods. All right. So, um, it's important to understand these cycles. Now let me go to some of the small, short-term oriented cycles. Okay.

Tuesday is the most bullish month, day of the week statistically, Tuesday from a price-rising point of view. Okay. So Tuesday is statistically more bullish than most other days. Okay. Friday is the most bearish statistically throughout history. Not every Friday, guys; we're talking about just throughout history. There are pockets and periods where this will be off, but over long periods of time, Friday is more bearish, um, that makes sense because if people are uncertain, they're not willing to hold big positions over the weekend. If something happens in the world or in the economy that makes big institutional players nervous, they will pair down positions on a Friday. Traders will pair down positions on a Friday because some politician might open up their stupid mouth on a Sunday morning or a Saturday evening and rock the market, and they can't get out on a weekend, so they will pair down their positions on a Friday, causing weakness on a Friday in uncertain times. All right. All right. Let's even go smaller. The most bullish 90-minute period of the day is the first 90 minutes of a market, if your Market hasn't open and close, um, the second most bullish or powerful 90-minute period of a day is the latter 90-minute period, so it's sort of like the bookends. Okay. The most explosive, the most explosive hour of the day, I'm going to have to say that once again as the bookends, it's the first and the last, with the first hour of any Market that has an open and close being, um, edging out the latter hour. And this is largely because institutions tend to play mostly at the beginning of the day and at the end of the day; they let the middle, they leave the middle alone a lot of times. So if they're going to commit to new positions or even come out of positions, they will use the first part of the day to do that. If they're going to commit to positions or even come out, um, they might use the latter part of the day depending upon what the Market's doing. The middle is softer, so institutions tend to stay away from acting a lot in the middle because the market gets saggy, just like the middle of the year gets saggy for markets, the middle of the day gets saggy. Why is this? Now, you, this is, this is going to trip some of you out; it's not some fancy technical reason why the middle of the day gets soft; it's because of lunch. I swear to you, people go to lunch, and lunch for the East Coast, uh, it's the lunch period for in the the stock market; it's the lunch period for the East Coast part of the United States, New York time basically. So because, still to this very day, a big percentage of your big players operate on New York time, they go to lunch in the middle of the day, and so your big players are gone, the market gets soft, and so you don't, that's the last time you you want to start doing some big moves when the Market's soft; you need, you know, you need the other side of your trade, and if the other side is at lunch, and in the middle of the year gets soft because a lot of people start leaving for vacations. I wish it, I wish it were something more technical, but it's not; it's lunch and vacation.

All right, guys. I hope you found those things, um, helpful. They can serve as some very valuable guides for your assessment of odds. Okay. All right. All right. So let me see what questions you have here. All right. Um, is this video recorded? Every single live session winds up being a permanent thing on my YouTube channel, so if you got a cut out or something like that, do not worry. Okay. Do not worry. Okay. Absolutely helpful, Jane Smith. Thank you very much for saying that. Thank you. Okay. Um, bless, bless. Pita says goat. Thanks, Oliver. You're the man. Thank you. Thank you all for being here, guys. Um, for those of you here for the first time, guys, look, I know I have glasses; he like, why is he wearing glasses on the inside of his house da da da da. Guys, as you can see, there are lights in my face. I've been trading for 40 years, um, in the beginning of my trading career, I traded mostly on mono with monochrome screens. Now, some of you don't even know what a monochrome screen is, but is the black background with the green lettering. This sort of made my eyes very sensitive to light, and so anytime I have lights, if I don't dim the reflection a little bit, um, I will pay the price with my grains afterwards. So it's not me trying to be cool or anything like that, but, um, it is just occupational hazard. All right, guys. Uh, let's see. Arc is saying, Arc is asking, Oliver, should we ignore shorts at this time of year for day trading? No, no, no. Now listen, most of what I told you in terms of these cycles, they're somewhat macro in nature; it doesn't mean that from a day-trading perspective, if we're in a bullish macro cyclical period, that doesn't mean that you can't take a short in a day-trading perspective. The, the, the, the time frame is too separated, and I'm constantly reminding my traders of this as well. I'm like, guys, you can be in a bullish period but still have a wonderful short that will last 8, 12, 16 minutes. You can be both, right? Something can be negative for the next 16 minutes that's actually positive in the macro. Day trading is not really greatly affected by these macro periods, but I will say when all of the things line up, your plays have a greater chance of being big wins. So when your day, your short-term, your medium-term, and your long-term line up, those are the plays that can actually run a little bit more. Okay. All right. Good question. All right. Respect from India. Welcome, India. Um, is, uh, Don G is asking, Oliver, is the 20 simple period moving average, open or close setting important? Um, so what John is asking is, when I use my 20 period moving average, what is it, the what is it averaging? Is it 20 opens that it's averaging? Is it 20 closes that it's averaging? For me, it's closes. Okay. So all of my moving averages are based on the closing price of a bar. So if I'm looking at a 2-minute chart, let's say, um, and I have the 20 period moving average on the chart, it is averaging the last 20 2-minute closing prices, right? So all of my moving averages are based on the close. All right. Okay. And all of my moving averages are simple, by the way. All of my moving averages are simple. All right. I have been, guys, I have been playing the market, Market with moving averages for a very long time, and I've experimented with all of the sexier varieties. I've come to the con, I came to the conclusion a long time ago that none of the sexier varieties, weighted, angular, triangular, exponential, D D D D D D D D, none of those things, um, really give you any additional Edge as far as I'm concerned. So whenever possible, I always revert to the simple. If I've got two things here, complex, simple, I'm going with the simple. Hard, um, convoluted, basic, I'm going with the basic. Uh, this is a also a life principle because most things that are very powerful in life, they tend to lean closer to the simple, basic side. It's the human, it's a human fallacy; for some reason, we desire the complex. You know, you know people in your life that always, they always do things the hard way. Some of your kids probably, you know, why are you always doing things the hard way, right? All right. Instead of just going straight for the bullseye, you're taking 18 blocks to the right to go to the bullseye and then go to the bullseye. We tend to believe or feel that if it's not complex, it must not be true; it must not be real. This is a human flaw because most things in life that work, most things in life that are powerful, most things in life that are certain, more certain and more true, they are basic; they are simple. So you give me two choices; I'm going with whichever one is simple, period. Okay. Let's see. Raphael say, adding to my winners seems to be what was lacking on my trades. Yes, adding to your winners, guys. The purpose, this is a good, this is a good point. Hear me out on this. Most novice Traders have no clue of what the purpose of an add is. Do you understand? Most novices think adding, they most novices add when they're underwater; they're adding with the hope, it's a Hail Mary, with the hope that this add saves me, right? That's not the, that's not in the spirit of what an add is supposed to be used for. Hear me out here; this is important. I drill this into my Traders all the time. Okay. When you're making a commitment in a trade, you're rarely, not never, but rarely, you are putting everything on the line in the trade. So if you're, if, let's say your total lot is what you want to put in the trade is four Lots, whatever that is, four Lots, you would never put, not never, rarely will you put four Lots at risk on the first entry. So what you would tend to do is put two lots, half of your intended lot size into the initial entry. Now, if that, that proves to be right, it's starting to work, your play has proven to you, yes, I've got the right play, Boom, then you look for an add opportunity to add the other two. So one is to see, the two lots of your four, is to see, did I pick the right thing here? It starts to prove that you did, boom. Okay. Now you put the other two. That's the professional purpose for an add. Now, why does this work? Because most of your most damaging losses come right away. Did you hear me? Most of your damaging losses come right away. Most of you being wrong, the biggest is just instant; it's an instant knockout, an instant punch in the face. So if my most damaging losses come right away, do I want to be have all of my position right away? No. So I'm going to, if I get punched in the face, I'm going to get punched in the face on half of my position, but when I win, I want to get, I want to win on all of the position. It's simp, you see how simple and basic that is? That's simple maths, people. I want to lose on half, and I want to win on all. You understand? But what do novices do? Du du, everything is the same thing; every trade is the same, and the only time they add is when they're negative. That's just the freaking recipe for for going financially broke. You understand? And this just is lack of tra, training, lack of Education, lack of lack of a pro showing you. All right. There's a lot of people who think that they can learn how to do this alone. I have, I can tell you with zero doubt that you cannot. No, you can't say, Oliver, no, seriously, I can't learn how to trade on my own. No, you cannot. All right, let me clarify that. It's possible, but it will take you 50 years. Do you understand what I'm saying? It'll take you 50 years; it'll take you a lifetime and an obscene amount of money to learn everything from scratch, where all the pitfalls are, where all the the the stupid mistakes, what all the stupid mistakes are. Someone who's already done that, already learned that, already gone through that can cut your learning curve down by like 85%. The learning curve alone is long, hard, and it's a lifetime, and it's a zillion dollars. You understand? I'm telling you this is why no professional on Wall Street has learned on their own. Zero. Zero. You hear about these billionaire hedge fund Traders and all these these these special, I'm not talking about your YouTube Traders here; I'm talking about real Traders, you know, the Paul Tudor Jones, the Dennis Millers of the world, you understand, the Tim Drapers of the world, these these these players, they learned from someone; they were under the wing of someone, in most cases much older than they were when they started. You just, you can't do it. There are too many things that you would have to go through over and over again to actually learn, and that takes money and time and and and in order to go through all of that, it would take you decades. Say it's just, it's not possible; it's just not possible. All right. I like that, say, yes, when the student is ready, the teacher appears. That is an ancient axiom, and it's very, very true. All right. So guys, um, I am the teacher, and me being in your life means that you're ready. You're ready. All right. I know this is going to sound egotistical; that doesn't necessarily mean you're ready because you have someone else in your life. I know if you have me in your life, I know it means you're ready. It's the only way, it's the only way I could pop up in your life; it's the only way that I could resonate with you. There are people who flip away from me; they're not ready, for at least for what I have to offer, but the fact that something that I say, something that I do resonates with you and you're here, that means there's a connection that's meaningful; you should not ignore that. All right. That's like telling you there's something here. All right. Jacine, Tahita, see, see you, Medag. Are you from Medja, Jacqueline? All right. Michael Stern, Oliver, you taught me so much. Thank you. Thank you. I appreciate that. Thank you. Um, Stephen says, do you think we have to go through all the knowledge to understand the simple idea? Not quite sure I understand the question, but I'm going to take it the way I I think it's going to have the the greatest value. Do you have to learn everything first before you're successful, before you can make, start making money? Absolutely no. Absolutely not. You don't have to become a master first, and then you start making money. There are traders to this very day, they're consistent, they make money every single week, and they're still not mastering; they still have not reached Mastery. I made millions of dollars and still was learning, developing, what have you, back in the in the in the in the early 1990s. I mean, if I knew in the early 1990s what I know now, holy moly, but I was still knocking it out of the freaking Park. Do you understand? You don't, don't have to know everything, but you do have to have some foundational Concepts in play, um, you have to have some foundational con, con Concepts set. You have to have risk and trade management; you cannot be successful without that. You have to have some knowledge about size, like when do you play light, when do you play Heavy, when do you add, when do you not add? You've got to have that. You've got to have some knowledge about how to assess the odds of a direction. Okay. And you have to have some semblance, you have to have some knowledge of what are the most reputable, EV, the no, the most repeatable events that offer the best odds. So if you've got that small handful of things, you don't have everything; it's impossible, but you can take that small handful of things, and you can go out into the market and actually gain the right experience with those things, and as you gain more and more experience, that experience will start to translate into success. Most people think that they can have success before they become, they they accumulate some level of experience. This is stupid, people; it's stupid; it's stupid to believe that you can take a course, even from me, right, and after the course go out and do well. How, how, how, what in what world does that work? Because you took a course, because you you took notes, you sat in a chair and took notes, and so this is supposed to translate into the most being successful in the most competitive market in the world? Come on, come on, guys. Those things that you took notes on, those things that you understood, you now have to take into the real world, and you have to now use those things to BU, build up your empty. Now you have to build up your experience using those things, and there's a certain Tipping Point of experience that once you get to the Tipping Point, you're still not there, but this, you have enough experience now that can start producing results. It is experience that produces results, not knowledge. Listen, did you hear that? That was profound what I just said. I like it. Knowledge does not produce results. Knowledge is a component of potential results, but knowledge does not produce results; it is experience that produces results. Do you understand? When someone says, practice makes perfect, right? What are they really saying? Experience makes perfect. You're practicing is building your experience. You understand? Some, a basketball player practicing his foul, foul shot from the foul line, every shot in practice is building experience, in a pickup game, building experience, in practice, building experience, right? You can know, just because you know what to do is no guarantee that you will do what you know to do. Knowing has never saved anybody; it's necessary, but it's never made anybody, never EXP, experience. All right. And this is so lost in today's social media world because when you understand that and you watch an 18-year-old YouTuber claiming to be a great trader, are you kidding me? Are seriously, in what galaxy were they G, gaining experience in the womb? Like, how is that possible? It's not, not enough time for experience to be built; proper experience is impossible, people; it's just not possible. So when you understand these truths about life, you stop getting taken by social media trends; it's ridiculous. Most people understand when they take this mindset to real life, right? They take it to real life, and they say, look, my loved one needs this special medical procedure; I want the best; I want the best expert at this procedure. Now, they send you two, one of them has

Been doing the procedure for 40 years; the other has been studying the procedure in medical school for four years. Both have the knowledge: one studied the procedure four years, one has done the procedure for 40 years. Who you going to pick? All right. So, knowing the things to say, knowing the things to do—that's not it. Knowing is no guarantee that you will do what you know. That's where the psychological part comes in; that's where the experience comes in. So it is experience that produces your future profitability. And if you happen to be profitable before you have accumulated some measure of decent—a decent measure of experience—that is not called profitability; that is called luck. Luck is before experience; true profitability is after experience. And here's the kicker: you can't rush experience. Sorry, you can't make—you cannot make future Tuesdays happen faster than seven days apart.

If I told—if I—I sat here and I told you that every—that two—not every Tuesday, but Tuesdays tend to be the most bullish—Tuesdays tend to be the most bullish day of the week. Now, if you—you will need to see that. Now you can go in the past, which is not the same, but in order to see that, to gain experience with that, you're going to have to live through many Tuesdays to see if I'm right. Right? Right. Now you have the knowledge of it, but you don't have the experience of Tuesdays being statistically the most bullish day of the week. So, in order to gain that experience, to move it from Oliver to you, you need experience, and you cannot rush Tuesdays. You can't make 12 future Tuesdays happen today. And this is the thing: you know everyone wants it to happen now. Life doesn't work that way. You know, we need to go back to low time preference thinking and understanding that anything worthwhile is going to take time, people. It's going to take time. The reason—how many people are here? Can I see? There's 347 people here. This is crazy, right? 347. The reason why that's not 34,000 people is because I refuse to tell you that you can have success right away. You can't, because I refuse to tell you that. I have 347 people here; someone else that tells you I can—I can make you a success today—they have 34,000 people. Understand? I'm just not going to do that. All right. Um, what—uh, let's see here. Ron says, "I learned—learned more from you than other YouTubers." Yeah, and guys, I'm not trying to poo-poo other YouTubers either. I'm just saying that please understand that if it's impossible for someone to have lived through myriad—myriad market scenarios, how can they claim to be experienced? Guys, in my lifetime, right, I've gone through nine market crises—nine crises—nine of them. Most of you have gone through zero. Okay, well, 2020, maybe you've gone through one. Okay, I'm gone through nine. I've traded through nine crises, a multiplicity of wars, global economic collapses. I've traded through them. There is nothing the market can throw at me that can surprise me that I haven't seen over and over again. There's no scenario, no occurrence that can fool me. I've seen it too many times. The market's been in a bull—we've been in a bull market for the last 14 years, so the people who started inside of 14 years, they might think they're experienced, but they're not. It's been going up for 14 years.

Alejandra, good question. Alejandra is asking Oliver, "How can someone know that he knows?" By that question no longer existing. Now, I hate to wax philosophical, but I have to a little bit here. How do you know your name? How do you actually really know your name, Alejandro? And then you realize, well, because I have no doubt that my name is Alejandro. That's when you know you know. If you still have to ask, "How do—how does one know that they know?" it means that you don't yet. When you know, that question disappears. You just—you know. You know it like you know your name. You understand? No one—you—you don't have to say, "Are you—is your—is are you Jam's husband? Oh, wait, let me think—um, how do I really know that I'm my wife's husband?" Oh, dude, you know—do you have four kids? Um, how do I really know if I really have four kids? Dude, you understand? So when you know, you know. You will know. Trust me, there will be no doubt when you have arrived. It's going to punch—it's going to punch you in the face. And when you arrive, guys, it'll be permanent. Arrival is permanent. Now, on the way to that moment, that Damascus moment, right, all right, that Epiphany, that crossing-over period, that rebirth—you can have glimpses of that rebirth. You can have glimpses of that arrival that come and go—come and go. These glimpses give you a peak; they allow you to peer into your future. This is why some of you experience, "Well, Oliver, I don't get it. You know, I had this amazing two-week run, and now it's like I'm the worst trader in the world." You got a glimpse of your future. That's good. Don't poo-poo that; don't get depressed about that. Be glad you got a glimpse. That two-week period that you couldn't miss—that's your future. It comes and it goes—comes and it goes. Then you have to start monitoring those periods, right? Do they start to last longer? Now I got—there's two weeks and four days; this one lasted—I got a three-week period of trading. Well, if they're lengthening, then the spaces between them—you have to start measuring. Well, the last two-week period, good trading period I had was a month ago. Now I'm having another one; it's a month apart. Oh, wow. Now I seem to be having them three weeks apart. The gaps between them start to narrow—so they start to lengthen. These brief peeps—or—peering into your future—they're short first—go away short, then they start to lengthen and go away—lengthen and lengthen. Then they start to happen more frequently—more frequently. And then the crossing over is when the gaps are small to non-existent between these periods, and they're long—they're longer than the non-peak periods.

See, what part of trading is very hard? What part does the majority of people fail? Please tell Oliver. Oh, that's very simple—it's very simple—not hard, I should say, because trading is not hard. We make it hard. Markets are very simple; we make it complex. As human beings, we bring complexity to the market; the market does not have complexity. So hard is the wrong word, but I think I know what you mean. If I had to pick one thing that is the root cause—one of the major root causes for people losing—um, what would that be? That's very easy: fighting the trend. Fighting the trend. The ego tends to want to always go the other way because it wants to feel like everyone else is stupid. I'm going the other way. This is ego. So fighting the trend is the number one reason for loss. It's not the only reason for loss; it's the number one reason for loss. Fighting—another way of saying fighting the trend is fighting the odds. Okay. Um, another way of saying this is fighting the trend of the 20-period moving average. The 20-period moving average is rising, and your stock is above the 20-period moving average; you should probably be thinking about going long. If the 20-period moving average is declining, and your stock is below the declining 20-period moving average, you probably should be thinking about going short, and you probably should be thinking about entering somewhere near that rising or declining trend. Okay. Most people are thinking about going the other way. Stocks down, they want to go the other way. Stocks up, they want to short it back to the downside. That's the number one reason—just going—fighting—swimming upstream—going against the flow—fighting the power—thinking that David really beats Goliath—maybe in the biblical sense, but not in financial markets—not most of the time. Okay. What would be the second reason? Not cutting your losses. So fighting the trend, which will put you in a lot of losses, and then not—not cutting them—playing ostrich. You see, most novice players—most novice traders—most humans—we are not socially designed to be successful market players. So we have to re-engineer ourselves; we have to reprogram the way we think, the way we see, the way we respond. But we are not socially engineered to be this way—to be the way a master trader is. Let me give you an example: there's this natural tendency for humans to vote for the underdog, right? We love an underdog story. But see, in the markets, that'll destroy you. You understand? The underdog doesn't win most of the time in the financial markets. So you got to flip that. We're looking—we're playing with the elephants, dude—not the mice. You know, mice are not going to lift me after I buy a stock. I need the elephants to lift me after I buy a stock. We're playing with Goli—we're playing on the side of Goliath—not playing on the side of David. But we love the side of David. We're socially engineered to love the side of David. When a trader has to love the side of Goliath—we naturally look at the institutions as—as enemies, but in the real world, they're not your enemy. Your uncle is not going to raise the stock that you bought to have you make money. Your neighbor down the street—you might like him—but even if he buys your same stock after you buy, that's not going to do anything for you. I need institutions coming in after me to make money for me. I'm on the side of them. You understand? We're not socially programmed for that. We're all—we also have—we're designed in a way, when it comes to trading, where our emotions are upside down. I've spoken about this before: our—our emotions are upside down. So we—when we're down in a play—we hope—so we bought something and it's down—we're negative—we're losing money—we hope it turns around. We're negative; we hope—"I hope this gets better; I hope this trade improves; I hope it comes back; I hope I can get my money back." This is wrong. Yet, if we're designed also that if we get a win, we start getting nervous—"Oh my God, it's—it's winning"—and you—your—your—your palms start to get sweaty with a win, but they're not sweaty with the loss, though. They're sweaty with the win. The butterflies are the biggest with the win. You get the most fearful with the win—fearful of what? Fearful that the little bit of gain that I have is going to disappear—"Oh my god, I've got $455 in two minutes; I don't want that to disappear"—and you snatch at it out of fear. So think about this: you've got your feelings backwards. You're hoping in negative territory, and you're fearing in positive territory, when—when in fact, the professional fears in negative territory and hopes in positive territory. You see, the master trader fears that this loss—"If I don't contain this loss, this loss could eliminate my life. I've got a freaking good life; this loss could undo me; this loss could do major damage to me—my family, my future, my career. I fear this loss"—and they will not let that loss get out of control—out of fear. They've seen what a losing trade can do; they've seen good traders get taken out of the game. They fear loss when they're in profitable territory. They hope—"This could be the big one; this could be the mega-win that I've—that I—that I—that I love—that I win; this could be another big play; this could go on; this could run; this could really pump." They hope in positive territory and fear in negative territory. You have it backwards. We, as human beings—society has conditioned us to be the opposite of this. Now, I'm not saying—I won't go as far as saying which one is—is right or wrong. I'm just telling you that it's wrong in the market. Whether you want to stay that way in regular life is your choice, but in the market, it's wrong. You're going to have to reprogram yourself; you're going to have to think differently and feel differently. And it is from that rewiring that your actions—your responses—become entirely different. That's your rebirth. All right, Oliver, it will be—will it be possible to repost all the sections on the—on your YouTube of the 10-hour free trading program complete? Please. Um, I guess my team can—is listening right now; they maybe understand a little bit more what you're asking. But yeah, I'm sure they're going to find your comment very interesting. Um—uh, "Please teach us the strategy what would work during the election year only." Um, guys, I have a live—my last live event is coming up on the 20th—I think so. Okay. Anyway, it's coming up, and I'm going to talk about strategies for next year. All right. I'm going to talk about strategies for next year, so make sure you get—get that in live or at least in recorded form. Um, Sunni—Sun—55 is asking, "Thanks for keeping it 100%, Oliver." Okay. Michael, you're welcome. Michael Storm is asking, "I still get butterflies with my wins." Okay, he says, "I still get butterflies with my wins, but yet very calm in a down position." All right, reverse backwards. And he says, "I no—I'm no longer in fear on the downside, but—or hoping, but in action. How do I learn to be better in the green?" So how do I learn not to fear in the green? Um, he says, "It could be because I don't experience green a lot." That's true; that's why the fear is there, and you don't want the—the few that you get to disappear. But the—the—the way I have actually broken—guys—traders out of this snatching at their profits is with a boom-or-bust approach. So here's how I've—how I've done it with certain drills, right? I do it with drills sometimes—or have in the past. So on certain profitable trades that go profitable enough to take a partial profit—so let's say you have two lots—the play gets profitable enough to take one lot off. You never really want to try to take all of it off—not never, but most of the time you want to take portion off, right? So your first profit objective is hit—boom—you take one lot of the two lots off—move your stop to break even. So now there is no risk of losing original capital; you've pulled some profit out. The remaining lot can only lose unrealized gains; it cannot lose uh initial capital, and you cannot walk away from the trade without some profitability. You've locked in some profits—moved to break even on the remainder. All right, got that part? Now you let this trade either go to the end of the trading day, and you kill it, or it hits your stop, and you kill it. You cannot do anything in between. You see it run up—doesn't matter—keep it. "But Oliver, I've got $2,000 in profits." No, doesn't matter—keep it. It's only two ways: you're going to either go to break even or you're going to sell at the end of the day. In between doesn't matter. And this will train—and I don't—I wouldn't do this on every trade, but select trades—to just sit there and let your emotions play out with no actions, and they will start—because they need to be acted on to stay strong. And when you start to practice not acting on your emotions, you—you start to starve them. Okay. We want to be rule-based traders; we don't want to be emotional—fly-by-the-seat-of-my-pants traders. There can be no consistency developed with—I make decisions on the fly. All right. You can't have consistency making decisions on the fly, especially in your developmental years. All right. Um, "I hope this is a joke, but—um, if it is, it's really funny. If it's not, that's really sad," but Reginald is saying, "Oliver, when I'm trading the 15-second chart, I can't seem to get a strong sense of direction; I keep getting stopped out. Any advice?" Yes: stop freaking trading a 15-second chart. That's absolutely dumb. "Oliver, I keep banging my head up against the wall and get migraines. Is there anything you can do? Is there any advice you can give me?" Yes: stop freaking banging your head up against the wall. Let's start there. "Oliver, I get stopped out on the 15-second chart all the time. Is there any advice?" Stop trading the freaking 15-second chart. All right, the answer is in your problem: stop it. Now pay me. Superb advice? No, I'm teasing. 15-second charts, guys—you should not be going lower than a two-minute timeframe. All right, I have scores of videos on this. Lower than two minutes, and you start to get into trouble. "But Oliver, what about the one-minute?" One-minute, too, guys. I don't like it. It turns you into scared, fearful traders. Everything looks bigger than it really is on the one-minute. Everything looks like it should be reacted to—things that should not be reacted to—it looks like it should be reacted to. It's going to extend your journey for years you want to put off—when you will finally arrive. Okay. You want your—"No, Oliver, I want my journey to be extra hard, then." Okay, trade the six—15-second chart—trade the one-minute chart. You want your journey to be extra hard—trade the one-minute chart. You want it to be extra long—you want to—"No, I—I—I love the process; I love the journey in the process so much; I don't want success to come right away." All right, trade the one-minute chart, then. In any timeframe below that—that'll get you there—that'll accomplish it. Guys, I don't speak to you from someone's course, you understand? I don't speak to you because I read books; I don't speak to you because I've watched a whole bunch of trading videos. I speak to you from 43 and a half freaking years of playing the financial markets—trading virtually every single workday of my life. It comes from real, true decade after decade after decade after decade of experience. It's not regurgitated from someone; it's not third party. Do you understand? There is nothing that I have not gone through a billion times; there's nothing I don't know intimately; there's nothing the market can show me and say, "Wow, that's peculiar"—that's peculiar—nothing—nothing's peculiar. Do you understand? I've seen every type of trader; I've dealt with every single type of trader; I've seen all the ways that you can blow up—all the pitfalls—over and over again. It comes from real experience. So you know my point is—is that you can fight me on these things—"Oliver, no, I don't—I don't agree with you; the one-minute chart is marvelous." Okay, I'm just telling you where it comes from. I've never, in my entire life, seen a one-minute trader last—never—43 and a half years—never. I've seen them all blow up—all of them. So there you go. Um, "Oliver, I enter the Elephant Bar but take losses at the b80." So Leonardo says, "Oliver, I—I—I enter Elephant Bars, but I take losses a lot because they immediately reverse on me." This is usually—this is—this comes down to a problem of location. So look at your Elephant Bar—look at your Elephant Bar as a building—a beautiful building—but you want this building constructed on beautiful property. All right, you don't want a beautiful building built on a terrible, crime-infested neighborhood. It has to be on good property—good land—good property—good neighborhood. So when a person says, "I'm playing Elephant Bars, but I'm getting stopped out a lot," it tells me they're playing Elephant Bars on the wrong property—in the wrong location. So one of the things you can do right off the bat is only take Elephant Bars that are at or near the 20-period moving average or the 200. That's the first thing. Now there's more, but you can start there. If the beginning of your Elephant Bar is not somewhere near—it does not have to be touching—somewhere near either the 20-period moving average or the 200-period moving average, that's not an Elephant Bar you take. Now run with that. Okay, Elephant Bars must start at or near either of the two major moving averages. They start there. You understand? So the beginning of the elephant—that should improve your results immediately. "Sir, what timeframe should we use for swing trading in Forex for quick experience?" I like the four—four-hour chart on Forex for swing trading. I like it for—hour—daily, of course, but for hour—I like a lot—experiment with that for your swing trading on Forex—four-hour chart. Uh, "Do you read news to put up trades?" No, no, not at all. Now, I'm not saying that news can't be the impetus for something, but I don't need it—whether it's the emphasis—or not—impetus or not—so then it means nothing. So, for instance, let me give you an example. All right, I'll give you an example here—see if I can show you something here really fast. Let me see if I can end here with something. So today, guys, I took—I will show you this. So today, I took a short at the open off of Tesla. Right, let me get the moving averages up here. Okay, so I'll put the 20-period moving average on there, and I'll put the 200-period moving average on there. Right, so here's a two-minute—it's a three-minute—so let me just go to the two-minute cuz I did it off the two-minute timeframe. Okay, so here's my short on Tesla. Now I want you to note a few things here. Note that—here's my 200—note that it's relatively flat. So this is flat enough. All right, note that it's relatively flat. Note how close—and how—and—and relatively flat my two—my 20-period moving average is. So that's flat, too. Look how close they are together. All right, so this is called a narrow state. All right, if you want to know these concepts, I've done videos on these. So this narrow state—your best trades are going to come from a narrow state. Now I have a narrow state here. Okay, if Tesla opens above the narrow state, it has a long bias. If it opens below the narrow state, it has a short bias. Very simple. Told you markets are relatively simple; we make them complex. Now we see that Tesla opens under the narrow state this morning. Okay, so Tesla opens under the narrow state. Okay. Now I need—if I'm going to go short—I need to make sure that I have the color red first because it can open here and—and produce the color green, which doesn't help me at the—at the start. It needs to be under and start producing the color red. So as Tesla opens and starts to produce the color red—boom—I hit it up—boom—understand? Stop above the high. And some of my traders actually took this and added on this little green blip—boom—and profit take—boom—boom—boom—out. Okay, out because you have now wide state. So we went from narrow state to wide state. You see? Now your wide state—out in—during narrow state—out during wide state. Now that should be basic if you're following my work for any period of time. All of this should be basic things for you. Okay, if not, you need to spend more time here and maybe even consider joining my family so you can understand these concepts. They're very basic, but I had a bunch of traders kill it today on Tesla with this. Now—and it was one—it was my trade as well. My point is this—getting back to the news question—"What if Tesla had good news, and Tesla gaps down from this narrow state and gives me—me red? Will the good news stop me?" Absolutely not—boom—I'm shorting it. Now, what if—from this narrow state—Tesla gaps down and gives me red? You understand? What if Tesla gaps down and gives me red, and the news is negative? I'm still taking it. So if I'm going to take the play, whether the news is good or bad—is the news important? No, it's the event and the location that's important. And the state—state is narrow; location is under the narrow state; and the color is red—boom—that's all I need. I don't care what the news says. You understand? So news doesn't matter to a professional trader who's playing technical events. If the news is with me, fine. If the news is not with me, fine, too. I'm playing what I know has good odds of dropping and rising. All right. I hope that makes sense, guys. Hope that made sense. I'll end with this last question, guys. Ben MT is asking, "Oliver, can you explain how shorting isn't a bad thing to do for those who think it's evil?" Wow, I haven't heard that in decades—that shorting stocks are evil. Okay, let me explain to you why it's not. If every market needs short sellers—do not hate the short sellers—love the short sellers. Love those who provide liquidity when you need to get in. Let me give you an example: if you were to take all the short sellers out of the market, when your stock starts to run and you want to get in, you will pay a super high price because at that time, most of the people who don't want to go short are chasing it on the buy side. So in order to buy, you need someone to say, "I'll sell it to you." But what if everyone wants to buy? Where are the sellers? So let's say some surprise news comes out—you know—on Tesla—Tesla gaps up and starts ripping to the upside—and everyone says, "Oh my goodness, this news is going to triple the value of Tesla"—and everyone flips to the buy side and they're scrambling to get in. But in order to buy, you also need someone who's willing to sell. If no one wants to sell, how do you get in? You don't. Now, who's the willing sellers in a scenario like that? Those who don't believe the news and are willing to go short. These short sellers provide necessary liquidity for the other side. Don't think of their intentions; think of liquidity. Liquidity rules markets; the market with the most liquidity wins. You ever see a stock that's really gappy, and the spreads are wide? Lack of liquidity—you can get destroyed in a market with lack of liquidity. So short sellers add a very important component to the markets; they make markets efficient; they narrow losses; they prevent—prevent markets from going haywire. Micro—Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy—the Bitcoin company—now, right? He loves short sellers. He said he used to hate short sellers—the shortest stock—he loves it now. The options on MicroStrategy are the most traded options in all of the market. The act—activity in MicroStrategy bonds are the highest activity of all bonds in all markets worldwide. That's crazy. The stock's volume has gone through the upside largely because of what? Because the short sellers exploded—the buyers didn't explode as much as the short sellers exploded—by orders of magnitude. Now he loves them, and this extra liquidity brings confidence to the stock—that if I get in, there's liquidity to always get out. Short sellers are a gym. Now, the last thing I will say is this: a short seller is a future buyer. Think of this: if I short a stock, in order—order to close my short, I must buy. So all short sellers are future demand for the underlying thing that they short—that's bullish—that is not bearish. You just got to get—if—if a whole bunch of short sellers just shorted Tesla—that's future—guaranteed future demand for Tesla stock—guaranteed. You can't—they can't get out; their next act must be to buy. Short selling is a gift in the market. Who attracts the largest number of short sellers is the best market—far from evil. All right, this is a very—very primitive—no knowledge about markets view. You don't want to be there; trust me. All right, guys. All right, I hope you've enjoyed the talk. I know I can go on some of these rants, guys, a while, but it's just my style. I apologize about that, but anyway, guys—um, thank you for coming. I know there's a lot of things you could be doing right now with your time—like in the mall—walking your dog around the block—watching television—you know—scrolling social media—but you're here with me, so it's—it's something I don't take for—I don't take for granted, and I don't take lightly. Thank you very much. 392 people here. All right, maybe we can get those numbers—those rookie numbers—up in the—

Future, I will be with you this Thursday for our Live technical analysis Thursdays. All right, so tune in on Thursday at 1 p.m. New York time. All right. CIA for now.