Transcription
Hey everybody, it's Ron from Pic Dogs and this is Ron's Rundown. We're going to go over the MLB Wildcard Series games for Wednesday, October 1st, 2025.
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All right, here we go. Here are the games for Wednesday. Major League Baseball.
First up, we've got the Tigers and the Guardians. We've got Tanner Bbeby for Cleveland. Still waiting for the official starter right now for Detroit. AJ Hinch has kind of kept it quiet, but it is going to be Casey Mai or Jack Flareity. I think either option we go under the total in the first five innings. Tanner Bay has been excellent down the stretch. He was not pitching well for the majority of the season. He had an ERA in the mid fours, high fours I think at one point as well. But in September, you know, it's definitely he picked the right time to get hot. He was excellent. It was his best month of the year with a 1.3 erra, 27 and two/3 innings, 26 strikeouts, only one home run given up in four Guardians victories. A lot of low-scoring games, 3-2, 4-0, 3-1, and 5-1. And two of those wins were against these Detroit Tigers. 12 innings, just two earned runs given up, and 13 strikeouts against Detroit. Now, we talk about how it's never easy facing the same lineup twice in the same week. Try three times in about a 15-day period. It's not going to be an easy matchup here for Bobby or Maiflity, but I still think Bbeby is a good option here at home in this start. I think that the Guardians are a lineup that I'm still not in love with and you know overall they a lot of the games that they won in the final months of the season were because of their pitching. I think we go under the total in the first five innings. Full game under is also worth a look. Give me the under in the first five innings in this one.
Next up, we've got the Padres's and the Cubs. Now, we're still waiting for the official starter for Chicago. Shoda Ianaga would make sense here for a game two start, but we'll see if the Cubs switch it up. Obviously, Kate Horton would have been a great game two option if he didn't get injured, but uh now the Cubs do have to, you know, Craig Hansel has to make a bit of an adjustment here. And I wouldn't be surprised to see Imanaga as a starter. If not, Jameson Tyion is another option for Chicago. But Dylan CE should be going for San Diego. And for me, I was really impressed with Dylan CE the final month of the season. We know it's been an up and down year for CE. He's been inconsistent. Got an RA in the mid-4s, but in September, one of his best months of the year, 26 innings, 32 strikeouts, and a 3.12 erra. He also only gave up one home run the entire month of September. And that was despite pitching one of his games at Coors Field against the Rockies. Obviously, the Rockies struggled offensively this year, but anytime you're pitching at Coors Field, not easy for a starter. He went five innings, one run in that game. And like I said, he pitched really well down the stretch. I'm still not necessarily in love with the bottom half of this Cubs lineup against righty pitching. And I think that San Diego because of their bullpen, they're such a dangerous team. If this is a close game late right now, I'm going to take the Padres's on the money line this one. If it's Imanaga, we also saw him really struggle in September. A lot of home runs, a lot of sharp contact given up. So, while the Padres's aren't really known to be a powerful team in terms of their slugging percentage or isolated power numbers against lefties, I still think they can get to Imanaga for a few runs, enough to win this game. Give me San Diego on the money line.
Next up, we've got the Red Sox and the Yankees. We got Brian Beo and Carlos Rodon as the projected starters. You know, it's interesting. Brian Beo was pitching really well. He had every start against the Yankees he had this season was a good one except his most recent start, September 13th. Four earned runs, three walks, a home run in in five innings in a 5-3 Yankees win. It was the opposite for Carlos Rodone. He struggled against the Red Sox at the beginning of the season. But his most recent start against Boston back in August, August 24th, was just one out shy of a quality start in a 7-2 Yankees blowout win. Five and two/3, just one base hit, two earned runs in that game. Had a 9-4 ground ball to fly ball ratio. And then Rodone carried that over to a really good month of September. 31 innings. Strikeout numbers were a little bit down, but I like the fact that he was keeping the ball on the ground, limiting the sharp contact and an RA below three. And the Yankees won a good amount of Carlos Rodone starts in the second half of the year. They went 5-1 in his games in August. They went 3-2 in his starts in September. Now, Bea on the other side wasn't the sharpest down the stretch. He wasn't pitching as deep into ball games in September. Had an RA above five. Gave up 12 walks in 25 innings. His strikeout numbers shrunk to 16ks in those 25. And for me, you know, the Red Sox also lost his last three games, including that one start against the Yankees. For me, these are two pitchers in different directions right now with a really tough Yankees lineup against Beao, I think that he could be in trouble in this game on the road. And I while I lean towards the under in the first five innings because I still think both starting pitchers can put together a decent outing in the first half for this game, I look for the Yankees to win it in the end. So, I'm going to take the Yankees on the money line in this one.
Next up, we've got the Reds and the Dodgers. We got Zack Latell and Yoshino Nobo Yamamoto as the starters. This one 9:00 PM Eastern on ESPN. I'm looking at the total in this one. I like the under, and it's already a low total, but I think we still go under the number as I don't think the Reds can do much of anything against Yamamoto. He was excellent in the month of September. His strikeout numbers were there. His control was a little bit dicey, but he still had 27 innings of 34 strikeout, two earn run baseball in September. And a lot of those starts were against teams that were still competing for a playoff spot. His starts against the Giants on September 12th and 18th and then his last game against the Diamondbacks on September 25th. So a sub-one erra in September, a solid 3.5 RA in the month of August still with great strikeout numbers. I think the Yamamoto against the Reds team and they're still in love against righty pitching overall will put together a quality start. The other side, Zack Latell, we know he's given up a lot of home runs this season. That's been the big side effect for Latell's game is the home run ball despite having a pretty good season overall with a sub-4 RA. But the thing is, you know, Latell in his first two months as a member of the Cincinnati Reds, gave up a large majority of his home runs when he was pitching at Great American Ballpark, very hitter-friendly ballpark where we see a lot of home runs hit. In fact, in the over 30 road innings that Latell had as a member of the Reds, he only gave up two home runs. And his last three road games, no home runs given up at all. So, I do think that while the Dodgers are a really tough lineup, they've got great power numbers against righties, and that would be a concern for a pitcher that gives up a lot of home runs like Latell, I think that he's going to be okay in this game, enough to where we can go under the total. The Dodgers should still be able to score some runs off them in the Red's bullpen and win this game in the end, but I think the under could be the better play.
And that's it. Those are the games for Wednesday in baseball. Hope you enjoyed this video. Again, if you're looking for my best bets, you can find those at pickdogs.com, and there is a link in the description. As always, it's Ron Minnelli. Good luck.