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Buffalo Bills DENVER BRONCOS SATURDAY DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS. Everything you need to know in 15 minutes.
If you've never been here before, welcome. My name is Max. I make these for every playoff game to give you a unique edge looking at run scheme metrics, coverage data, and overall trends nobody talks about because it relates to the scheme behind the game instead of the numbers you see on the screen. Without further ado, let's get into this breakdown.
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The Bills defense is the big talking point that we are going to start with. The data outliers in Buffalo. They're giving up the fifth most rush yards per game across the entire season at 137.2 and the second most yards per carry at 5.22. However, on the other side, the pass game, they're giving up the fewest pass yards in the NFL. Now, I partially wonder if that has a lot to do with time of possession. They lead the NFL in time of possession about 33 minutes a game. Part of me wonders how much that has to do with time of possession, but part of me also respects the fact that they've been playing better as of late in the secondary.
They've been playing in terms of the coverage data a lot more man-to-man lately. I'm not sure if you guys saw an interview after the game, uh, I can't maybe it was the Bills defensive coordinator talking about Trey White playing like old Trey White. He's playing really well and the Bills kind of feel like they have a number one corner right now. So, they've been playing more man-to-man across the board. They're more man-heavy than zone heavy in general, but they're top 10 in man coverage rate in the last six games, the final five weeks of the season, and then this past week against Jacksonville. And if they're going to play that much manning as a team like Jacksonville with elite receivers, I guess that they're probably going to do something similar against Denver.
They are extremely middlefield openheavy, though. We talked about this last week. That's a coverage match that doesn't really happen a ton. When you're really middlefield openheavy, but you also play a ton of man coverage. It means they're number one playing a lot of cover two man instead of a traditional cover one. But they love their quarters. They get safeties closer to the box. That's what they do. That's what the Bills do. That's kind of what they've always done. In terms of where they're targeted, it's in the slot at the highest rate in the league in terms of out wide out of the back field. Slightly below average. Nothing crazy, but lowest inline tight end target rate in the NFL.
Looking at Boone Knicks, he is throwing out of the back field at a top five rate, but most importantly, above average in the slot. When you look at the slot route participation, this where it gets really weird. [snorts] Pat Bryant is number one in slot route percentage. Meaning what percentage of his routes? I think minimum of 50 routes. What percent of what percentage of his routes, excuse me, are slot compared out wide backfield, whatever. He has the highest percentage I think minimum of 50 routes on the Broncos. But Troy Franklin has the most slot routes overall. So, when you look at potential snap count usage for a guy like Troy Franklin, Courtland Sutton, all of these differentiating Denver Broncos, it's really, really important to note that obviously Courtland Sutton's going to play a bunch, but Pat Bryant logged 66% of snaps in the final week of the season where Troy Franklin really didn't play much. Throughout the past month and a half, it's kind of been down a little bit. Lil Jordan Humphrey's been playing more. Michael Bandandy is a guy to watch.
However, when you look at what the Denver Broncos want to do offensively, it's going to come back to the ground game. In terms of the target and scheme data, Marvin Mims is the number one in terms of targets per route run out of the slot. Michael Bandy number two in targets per route run out of the slot. Now, what's really interesting is Troy Franklin from the slot is more frequently targeted than Bryant, but like we talked about the snap counts, uh, Pat Bryant running a higher percentage of his routes from the slot. There's potential there with him. Against man-to-man though, Troy Franklin is the highest percentage in terms of overall targets or against man coverage for the wide receiver room. Overall, RJ Harvey has the highest target percentage, which is really weird. You don't see that very often. Again, Michael Bandy, very, very small sample size here, but he's got a good target percentage as well. Now, Courtland Sutton's number two. When he gets his one-on-one, especially in the red zone, they're going to look Courtland Sutton's way. Against middlefield open, it's a bunch of guys you don't really talk about. Evan Ingram, Marvin Mims, and again, Pat Bryant. But those are the guys you should be looking at in the pass game. I think Troy Franklin above anybody else for those reasons.
In terms of the run scheme metrics, [snorts] the Broncos are man gap heavy. They're below average in efficiency and success rate in it though. They're top five in overall man gap rate. Like that's what they do. But they're bottom five in efficiency and success rate in it. When you look at the Bills though, they're also bottom five defensively in man gap efficiency. However, they're top 10 in man gap success rate. Success rate is essentially staying ahead of the chains. On first down, you gain like three, four or more than three yards, excuse me, four, five yards. Second down, cut the distance in half, and then third and fourth, convert. They're very good in those situations, but being bottom five in efficiency, like yards per carry, explosiveness, that leads potentially to more explosive runs where there are already just in general, scheme aside, bottom five and explosive runs allowed.
Now, important to note, the Bills are the worst zone efficiency defense in the NFL. Broncos don't really run zone, but when they do, they're also top 10 in efficiency. This is a long way long-winded way of me saying I think the Broncos have a pretty big advantage on the ground. I think if they run the ball consistently, they're going to run the ball very well. But the big key here is that Oliver, when you look at the Buffalo Bills injury report, I mean they it is a laundry list and you look at the Denver Broncos, they got four guys and one of them was already a full participant on Wednesday. But you look at this laundry list of injuries. Jordan Puyer was a DNP. Ed Oliver was a limited participant. His practice window has been open. If Ed Oliver can come back, that is an enormous enormous boost for this Buffalo Bills defense. I can't stress how big of a difference that would make if he is back and helping in the run game. Obviously, Matt Milano playing as well is a big thing. The the linebacker room just in general is beat up, but if Ed Oliver comes back, that is an enormous enormous addition. We'll talk Bill's offense and that injury report here in a second, but that's the big key. I'd watch RV RJ Harvey for that reason. I'd watch Troy Franklin on Denver's side.
Not a ton of data outliers, believe it or not. 11th most wide receiver. Uh, this should be receptions. Uh, but the ninth most tight end yards, which is kind of what I want to talk about with the production here is important to note. Second fewest rush yards per game allowed, third fewest rush yards per carry. But coverage very vanilla. It's what we've seen all year and it's what you'd expect. Top five in man rate target in the slot at top five rate. You avoid Pats or Tan. It makes sense, but still targeted out wide. This should be top 12. top 12 rate in terms of Josh Allen where he likes to throw the ball inline tight end at a top 10 rate. And because the Bills are so banged up, Tyrell Shavers, Gabe Davis, they basically have three healthy wide receivers right now. Because they're so banged up, I think we're going to see a lot more 12 personnel, two tight ends, a lot more 13 personnel, three tight ends, where tight end pass usage is probably going to be at an all-time high for the Bills. But it still is worth noting the slot participation.
We'll come back to tight ends. Khalil Shakir obviously leads in slot routes. In terms of game logs, how he performed last week, it's not a coincidence that he played this Jaguars team who targeted in the slot at a decent rate. Like we talked about, the dude had 12 catches, right? Yeah. 12 catches against Jacksonville. Like he very clearly was the number one in terms of how frequently he was targeted, how exceptional he was against the coverage. Granted, very different defense, but the slot potential was there. When you look at Dalton Concincaid, he is the most frequently targeted Buffalo Bill out of the slot. Not running as many routes as Shakir. He's also played 12 games, but 12 games as in missed five, but he's more frequently targeted. So, when he's running routes, there's another reason we love Dalton King last week. He got in the end zone. It's because he runs them from the slot. because that production is there. In terms of out wide, Keon Coleman's number one and if they he's going to have to make a difference in this game. If if the Buffalo Bills want to move down the field, especially out wide, but I'm pulling this up for you guys right now. I'm going to I'll put on the screen in one second. The guy to watch is Brandon Cooks. I know, bear with me here. Back-to-back games with three plus catches and 55 plus yards. Gabe Davis is banged up. Tyrell Shavers. Uh, actually, they're both out. I don't know why I'm saying banged up. They both, I believe, both tore their ACL's, but they're both out. Look at Brandon Cooks these past couple weeks. Four for 101 against Philly. Didn't play [snorts] against the Jets. Three for 58 against Jacksonville. He is very, very clearly being used as a deep threat. That's almost 20 yards a catch here. That's more than 25 yards a catch here. Brandon Cooks is the number two wide receiver in terms of outwide participation against man-to-man. That's what he is. He's a deep threat. He's He stretches the field. He can separate. That is the guy to watch. 100% is the guy to watch against man specifically, right? King Kade is number one. Keon Coleman's number two. And then in yards per out run explosiveness. King Kade number one again. James Cook number two.
Now, the big pass game injuries, Gabe Davis is the guy to talk about, right? Last week was targeted very heavily. Most man-to-man targets on the Buffalo Bills last week. He's done. Tyrell Shavers is out. that's their big out wide guy. Somebody has to step up. Wide receivers have to step up. Tight ends have to step up. We'll talk about which guys I am most confident in at the end.
But in terms of the run scheme metrics, it's kind of the the opposite of the old adage where it's a very sorry it is the old adage. The unstoppable force meets the immovable object. The Buffalo Bills are the unstoppable force on the ground. They're more man gap heavy. They're top 10 in man gap efficiency and success rate. In zone efficiency, they're top three. top three in zone success rate. The Broncos are a little worse versus Man Gap, which is worth noting if the Bills are going to run more of it, but they're still very good. And you go look at the game logs against these Denver Broncos guys. Nobody really is having success on the ground against them. I mean, you'd have to go back to what, week two to find the last 100 yard rusher? Yeah, week two to find the last 100 yard rusher. And it was Jonathan Taylor on 25 carries. They're shutting these guys down. It almost doesn't matter who the running back is. Granted, last few weeks of the season, nobody crazy, but they did well against Josh Jacobs, minus one big explosive. He did have an explosive. Um, but in the middle of the year when they're playing more solid running backs, I mean, Nick Chub and Woody Marks combined 21 carries, don't even hit 65 yards. They do a good job against against Cam Scataboo. They do a good job against Javvante Williams, Bree Hall, Saquon Barkley. Like, they shut these guys down. They're they've been very good on the ground.
Part of me does worry, and this was actually a big reason we picked Buffalo to beat Jacksonville last week, is the tests on the ground really haven't been there. I guess you can say Ashton Genty, but the past month or so, Jacobs, they did well. Nothing crazy. I worry about this Broncos team being tested like a high quality opponent because the last time they played a really high quality opponent in my opinion was Jacksonville and they lost. So, I do worry about that. I do worry about potential run game hiccups. I'm watching again Dalton Conc, Khil Shakir in the past game, the two slot guys. But the bottom line here for me is the Denver Broncos I think have a huge advantage on the ground. If Ed Oliver plays, it changes a lot. It really does. But I think Denver at home getting after Josh Allen the way that they do, I think they pull it out. I know the Bills are a very tough or a very popular pick right now. I'm rocking with Denver. I'm avoiding the fraud allegations, but you guys let me know what you think. If you enjoyed watching, make sure to leave a like. We will see you next time. God bless.