Transcription
Hello to all of you. I hope you are doing well. We are meeting for the Saturday, December 6th brief, it is 8:52 AM. Today, we will talk about economic news, the long and short ratio, funding open interest, and liquidations. We will look at what the whales are doing, finishing with a technical analysis of Bitcoin. But before that, we will look at what happened yesterday. We had a dump on Bitcoin. I entered long and exited when I saw the data. So I exited at BE. I had entered right here when we passed 89,321. We had this drawdown. Then, my stop loss was right here, and afterwards, I decided to close when I got back to BE, simply because I don't find that there was a satisfactory rebound on H4. So we had this candle. I would have preferred simply a wick and then a direct rebound. That would have been much more interesting, and that was not the case. We still have data that is rather bearish, even if we zoom out on a low timeframe, looking for example at 3 minutes, it's really pure and simple accumulation. So clearly, it's not necessarily bullish. We could simply come and liquidate the upside to then come and take this accumulation that we have right here. So clearly, it's rather dangerous. So that's why I decided to close my long, and in my opinion, it's better to do nothing, at least today. We will see tomorrow depending on the data, but Saturdays generally don't have much happening. We often have accumulations on both sides, and the first accumulation we have on Sunday, we go in the other direction afterwards. So we will have to pay attention to this zone. If we look at H4, we still see that we are bullish. We still have our trend change here. This one has not been effective. It's a trend change on H1. Right here, we are in the FVG, H4 FVG. This zone is holding. The FVG has also held. So logically, we could be able to go up again. We still have a lot of liquidation around $98,000, and it would be a shame not to go and get them. On the other hand, we must consider the fact that we are potentially in a range in which we have taken the top of this range and then we come back to get the bottom of this range to then range perhaps eternally in this zone before making a decision, whether it's downwards or upwards, in which afterwards we completely liquidate both sides.
Now, if we look at the data, next week, we will be well served. We will have the Fed's decision on interest rates at 8 PM on Wednesday. So, expect a lot of movement on Wednesday. On Tuesday, we will have the Job Openings report at 4 PM, so on new job openings. Same thing, it's a news item that is expected, and on Thursday, we will have the weekly jobless claims. And otherwise, that's about it. We don't have much impactful other than Wednesday. So, Wednesday at 8 PM, it's likely to move a lot. And at 8:30 PM, we will have the press conference. So same thing, we will have revealing slips of the tongue about the next FOMC meeting. So we are likely to move quite a bit.
At the crypto bubble level, what we see is that we have red everywhere. So I was wrong about a potential alt season. Clearly, it was a false start. The alts have turned red again, and clearly they are not that strong after all. So we will have to be patient a little longer.
At the funding open interest level, what we see is that we have an increase in open interest with a decrease in funding right here. But it's a decrease, well, it's a very minimal increase. So that means we have accumulated stops just above here, but we have especially accumulated longs just there. We see an increase in open interest with an increase in funding. Which means that here it's a majority of longs that are open, and here a majority of shorts. So we have stops that have accumulated here. So why not come and simply close them to then come and liquidate the longs.
Then at the liquidation level, what we see is that we have a big cluster. We still have this cluster at $98,000. So I think we will reach it at one point or another, this zone. Now the question is whether we rebound now or whether we will go a bit lower. And when we look more at, for example, 48 hours, we see that we have a liquidity cluster to be taken just above at $90,000, and then we have a tiny bit of liquidation to be taken below, but it's minimal. On 48 hours, we still have many more shorts than longs open. So we are still on a convergence to be able to rebound. But the technical structure is really not good. So we will have to pay attention to that.
If we look on a weekly basis, we see that we don't have much other than liquidations around $94,000. But that's about the same. If we go to $94,000, we liquidate for 910 million. And if we go just below this zone, so around $85,400, we liquidate for 665 million. So it wouldn't necessarily be a bad idea to liquidate the downside to then be able to liquidate the upside calmly.
Regarding what the whales are doing, it's not particularly interesting either. We see that we are selling, and we see that we have price divergences between the price and the spot because when you look right here, we have gone below the equivalent of $86,400. When we look at where we were in terms of spot, same thing for micro whales. We see that we are really below $86,000 and some. And same thing for retail, we see that we are clearly below. So we have a big divergence between spot and price. So that means that spot is not pushing the price currently, and it is rather pushed by derivative contracts. So you really have to pay attention to that because logically, at the spot level, we are below $86,350, and that means that things could get a bit dicey at the spot level. So we will need to see buying come back. So technically, there isn't really anything interesting to open a long position. As I told you, we are potentially below this zone at the spot level. So clearly, that means it's probable that we will come to test this zone.
If we look at M15, we have this FVG right here, which ends at $90,214. This is also the liquidity zone. So why not simply wick into it, close it, and then have this rectangle in which we test the $86,000 zone. It doesn't necessarily mean that we will make a lower low compared to that. But we could come and liquidate this zone. So simply, either we liquidate here and rebound, or we liquidate here. Okay? And then rebound. For now, this zone remains safe given that we don't really have any interest in going much lower. On the other hand, if a lot of longs open here, then logically, we will go for the second zone. And here, if a lot of longs open, we will go for the third zone. And then we will have to pay attention to that. So it will really depend on what the spot does if we go for these zones. If we see buyer volume returning, shorts opening, etc., then we can say "Okay, we are on a potential rebound, it could be interesting to open a long." But currently, that's not the case at all. We are really on spot sales, people maxing out longs, and so it doesn't look good for the future currently. So we could very well have taken the top of this range. We see that we have a wick just above, going above this zone clearly, and it's probable that we will do our distribution and then go down. So we will really have to pay attention to that.
So, personally, I will remain a spectator today, I will stay calm, a day of rest, and we will see tomorrow if there is anything interesting because Sunday evening generally moves quite a bit.
So, I hope you enjoyed this video. Sorry, there are no specific recommendations to take, but sometimes it's better to stay away from the charts to come back stronger, and clearly, that's the case here. So, I wish you a good day. We will meet again tomorrow at the same time. Take care of yourselves. M.