Bitcoin Down 50% From The Highs

Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Let me just get some stuff. Um, all right. So, Bitcoin remains in freefall. Surprise, surprise. Uh, let me just get some stuff set up. All right.

So, Bitcoin is now trading at $63,000. Let me go ahead and share my screen. I can't really stay that long, but we'll do this for a little bit. Okay. All right. Well, here we are. Um, what's interesting is if you guys can see my screen. Okay. What's interesting is this this uh chart we were talking about the uh days since percentage decline. Bitcoin is it now has a 50% drop or this is gained. Bitcoin now has it hasn't reset yet but it will soon assuming we get a daily close down here. Um, Bitcoin is, you can see in the 2018 bare market, Bitcoin had its finally, it had dropped 50% from the high by early February. And now here we are eight years later, early February, and Bitcoin, this counter right here is about to reset. So look at this because now when you go to the chart and we take a we just look at see how far down Bitcoin is, it's now down about 50%. So we do have now a 50% drop in the price of Bitcoin. This is what makes trying to time these, you know, uh, these counter-turn rallies so difficult and why it's so dangerous. That's just because no one knows, right? Like no one knows where they are. All we can really do. And by the way, if you're if you're just joining, uh, make sure you subscribe, give the video a thumbs up. That really does help out uh the channel. I'm trying to reach a million subscribers. It'd be nice if I could do that this year. So, uh, there's a rumor going around that when I reach a million subscribers, the bare market may in fact be over. I don't know if it's true. Uh, but there's only one way to find out.

Now, Bitcoin right now is already down like 17% this week. You know, um, you could argue in the context of a bare market, we're like in this zone, maybe like right here, uh, or or or something like right here. So, I I think what's likely going to happen is that we're going to come into some like type of major capitulation low and when we get a bounce, that might then be a low that holds for a while. So, I want to give you a couple examples, right? So in 2022 when we finally came down. So you can see we we eventually broke down below these lows and then a couple of weeks later, right, couple weeks later, Bitcoin then set a low and then that low held for a few months, right? And essentially what happened is Bitcoin went sideways until the bull market support band, you know, or I really should say until the bare market resistance band uh came down and then it got rejected again. So, you could see something like that happening again where, you know, Bitcoin drops um and then perhaps it just kind of goes back. It just waits until the bare market resistance band gets down here and then it drops again. Could definitely see it playing out like that. We are coming up on our date with destiny. I hope you guys are ready for the date because Bitcoin's already almost there. The 200-day moving average is now at 50 uh, what is it at? 58,000. So, you know, I'm not saying that's going to be the bottom. I I hope it provides some relief for a little while. You can see that last cycle it provided no relief. We just went straight through it. So, I'm not here to suggest that it has to be anything. I just know that in bare markets, Bitcoin goes to the 200-day moving average, right? And you know, I don't control it. You don't control it. There's not a single one of us that can change it, right? It's going to happen more than I mean, it's almost assuredly going to happen eventually, no matter no matter what I because it always does and it doesn't have to be a rhyme or reason to it. It's just what happens in in Bitcoin bare markets that it eventually goes to that 200-week moving average and last cycle it actually went below it. So, you know, I mean, yeah, probably will happen. What's what's remarkable is how much faster it's happening this time because normally it takes a longer time to get there. But since we had our weekly close below the 50-week moving average, it's only been 12 weeks and we're not that far away from it. If you look at last cycle after getting our first weekly close below the 50-week moving average, it took Bitcoin about 26 weeks. So if we were assuming it'd be the same amount of time, instead of happening really soon, it would be happening out in in May. Now, I think I think the most likely month for a bottom is October. But if you made me guess another month, if you said if you told me that, "Hey, Ben, the low is not October, guess," uh, then I would probably guess May, right? So, I I think those are the two most likely months, May or October. So, and if you look at at at last cycle, Bitcoin actually fell into June. Um, so I no one really knows, right? No one really knows. But the the re the sort of the rationale for October is is pretty simple, right? I mean, it's just looking at at the prior bare markets. Also just looking at these two, this was December to December, this one was November to November, perhaps this is just simply October to October. Furthermore, if you look at the uh the ROI from the low for Bitcoin ROI after the cycle bottom and then you extend that out to the next low, you'll see that Bitcoin topped when it always does, it entered into a bare market when it always does, and then it's just been moving down ever since.

Now, what's really interesting is if you look at the year-to-date ROI of Bitcoin in 2026, if you compare that to say 2014, you can see that in 2014, Bitcoin also had a similar drop, right? It had from the yearly open, Bitcoin dropped about 30% and then it had a nice little rally up and then it came down. So, it's going to be a difficult year. Make no mistake about it. Whenever there's a rally, it's going to be hard because you know that the temptation to assume that the next bull market is started is going to be very high for a lot of people. But I do think it will result in a macro lower high whenever it happens. Now, if you look at 2018, you can see that Bitcoin also sort of moved up early in the year and then it had a capitulation into early February and then it came out of that capitulation um and basically bounced back up, but then it eventually just came back down. So, what I could see happening is whatever low is formed in the coming days, weeks, it might end up being a low that lasts for a while. You know, like it it could be a low that lasts for a while. It wouldn't be my base case as the low, right? It wouldn't be my base case for the low of the market, but I think it could be a low that holds uh for a while. Again, if you're just joining, make sure you guys uh subscribe. Uh, give the video a thumbs up. Also, you can, as I've said before, you can check out ITC Premium, and if you want to use the coupon code ITC50 at checkout, you'll get 50% off of your first month. So, we do have quite a few people watching. We have over 4,000 people watching and only about 400 likes. So, that's about one-tenth of you guys, thank you for giving the videos a thumbs up. The other 90% of you guys have no idea what you're doing. Uh, but you got to give the video a thumbs up.

So from there, I mean, we could go around and look at at everything, but I mean, if you look at this, the altcoin market is just simply getting annihilated, you know? I mean, if you look at at at Total Three, it's dropping quite a lot. And and frankly, a lot of the a lot of the altcoins uh have completely round-tripped most of their gains for the entire cycle. If you look at some of the big ones from the last couple of cycles, um, you know, that people have talked about, I mean, look at Avalanche, right? It's it's actually below its 2023 lows. Uniswap also below those lows back then. XRP is coming down quick, fast, and in a hurry to make sure it it joins in on that party. Cardano basically back at those lows from 2023. Solana, I mean, a lot of these things are are just coming back down. And and the hard part, right, for a lot is that if you if you look at Total Three against gold, it's now below, right? Like altcoins are now lower today against gold than they were in 2022. And this is kind of the rationale for why altcoins haven't been a good investment the last few years is because like they're just bleeding to everything else. Um, so I I I still think that you know, metals will outperform crypto this year. As far as metals go, I do think gold is a better place to be than most other metals in terms of volatility. I I think gold will absolutely outperform silver uh for the rest of the year. As I've mentioned, I think that silver had sort of this blow-off top. Um, and I do think the odds of a of that being the top for the year are are quite high for silver. But for gold, there's a chance that it's not the top. For silver, I would say it's like a 75% chance that it is the top. But for for for uh for gold, there's still a good chance gold could could see another high, you know, maybe later this year, even as late as as December.

Right now, Bitcoin is now at around 63,500. So, it is continuing to drop here. And one of the interesting things is if you look at Bitcoin in 2026 and compare it to the average of prior midterm years, we're actually well below the average right now. So like it's not the worst we've ever seen. I mean, in 2018, Bitcoin was down more. But the reason why this kind of feels worse is because in 2018, at least we had a euphoric top and there was an alt season, right? So this time we had a non-euphoric top and Bitcoin is capitulating either way. Now if you compare the current bare market to the bare market that, you know, when QT ended in 2019, it has been mostly tracking it, just a series of lower highs and lower lows. Okay. So, you know, the other thing to remember as well is if you look at it from the cycle peak, you can see that Bitcoin is actually right in between all the other prior cycles. So, it's hard like it's hard to dismiss the bare case just because it's inconvenient. Um, I I think there's still a lot of evidence for it. And what I think's happening, things are moving quickly. You know, phase one of the bare market um was Q4 2025, right? This was phase one. Phase two is now, right? And then phase three is is is going to be sometime later. So I I think we're in phase two right now. The initial phase of the bare market is sort of the initial drop and that's when kind of the early people realize it's a bare market and and go ahead and and and get out because they kind of see the writing on the wall. Now we're kind of getting we're we're more in like the middle part of the bare market where it's becoming obvious to everyone. Like I mean, if if you're following someone and they're still calling it a bull market with Bitcoin at 63K. I mean, that's not that's not a bull market, you know, and and I mean, Bitcoin could theoretically rally back up to 80K and it still just be a bare market, right? I mean, it could go higher than that and it still be a bare market. So, you know, I think at this point it's somewhat disingenuous, you know, to continue calling it a bull market. Um, hopefully hopefully everyone gets the memo because I I do think the sooner everyone gets the memo, maybe the bare market will be over, right? Once everyone agrees it's a bare market, perhaps by that time it'll be over. But for the time being, we're kind of in like phase two where if I had to compare it to like prior bare markets, I would say kind of like right here perhaps. Um, sort of somewhere in this zone in 2018 and and in 2014, it probably like somewhere over here. Um, so I think we're in phase two. 2019, it could be like right there. That's what it feels like to me, right? Like it feels like we're we're sort of in like the middle part of it, right? I mean, because real if you think about it, I mean, the bare market started in October, so we've already had all of you know, basically all of October because it happened early on. But you know, so October to November is one month, and then December, two, January, three, February, four. So we're already four months in to the bare market. If you argue that the bare market would last about a year, then you know, we're almost at the halfway point in terms of time. In terms of price, we could already be there, right? In terms of the halfway point, but it is important to recognize, you know, just how how quickly things can melt down once everyone sees the writing on the wall and um and then as prices go lower, then you'll start to see some companies go bankrupt and and force liquidations to occur. A lot of those liquidations can occur, some of them will occur, you know, kind of going into the summer, but some of them might not occur until the fourth quarter as well because I do think it's going to take some time uh to rebuild confidence.

The other I I want to sort of elaborate on on one of the dangers too of being very late to to the bare market mentality and and I've gone through this myself before. One of the problems with being late to understanding that it's a bare market is then mentally you're going to be in the place you shouldn't be because what happens is that if you if you finally get the memo, you know, deep into the bare market, it's going to be a lot harder for you to pivot back to the bull market when the bull market comes back, right? It's going to be a lot harder to pivot. Whereas, if you, you know, if you're if you're a little bit quicker into saying, "All right, it is a bare market." It allows you to pivot a lot easier. And the only reason I know that is because I've gone through that before, right? Like I I it's hard. Like this cycle I feel like I I pivoted quickly enough to where I I essentially did fairly well, but there have been cycles where it took me longer to pivot. Um, and then it makes it more difficult to get on the bull market bandwagon when it starts. So, a lot of it is just like the like sort of the mental framing of of thinking about all right, you know, how do I h how do I see this uh, you know, how do I see the current bare market, but recognize that there will be opportunities in the future and not get caught up in the moment. And one of those ways is to just try to be an early bear, right? Try to be bearish early so that you're not caught being bullish after it's down 50%. And I I think that's kind of the lesson that I've learned in prior cycles and and hopefully something that that people have hopefully many of you guys if you followed these views we've expressed uh the last few months about the four-year cycle, hopefully some of you guys have been able to avoid uh some of those losses. Um, in terms of I mean, but to be fair, I mean, like everything's down today. It's not just crypto. Uh, metals are down essentially across the board. Silver's down 16%. One of the reasons why gold's better than silver, uh, starting February 1st after the the meltdown that silver had, gold's better than silver.

A lot of times, like one of the biggest mistakes I think investors can make, and and I've made this mistake, too, is when you have a trend, like let's say you have a trend like this, okay? And then the trend does this and it and it and it drops. Or if it's the opposite, I need to sneeze. Um, or if it's the opposite, if the trend is like down and then it does this, there's a a false mentality. Let's call it a sort of like a f I don't know what to call it, a it's not really a false dichotomy, but it's this like it's an inaccurate way to think about the market. Okay. And what it is is that people think that if they miss the top or they miss the bottom, then their their hands are tied and they cannot they can't do anything to you know, to adjust their positions for the rest of the new trend, right? Like they they missed it and and they just sulk for the rest of either the bare market or the bull market. So if for instance, you miss the bottom, if you miss the bottom, then you're you're stuck constantly wanting it to go lower. Or if you miss the top, you're constantly looking for reasons why it has to go higher. But the reality is that even if you didn't sell, I mean, even if you sold Bitcoin like right here, you're still relatively happy, right? Like you don't you don't always have to time things perfectly to just get the the bulk of the move. And that's the that's one of the biggest lessons that I think people can take away from this is that like I think a lot of people had a hard time with the idea of of sort of offloading any Bitcoin in Q4 just because they didn't hit the 126k top. But you could have still sold, you know, for for months after that at at higher prices. And again, don't beat yourself up if I'm if if that's you. That's been me many times, right? Like that's been me more times than I care to count. So, it's just something that as like an investor, you you start to learn and I think you get a little bit better at realizing that like no one actually knows where the top is. Um, or no one really knows where the bottom is. But once the evidence starts to mount that the bottom is in or the top is in, you are allowed to you are allowed to, you know, to have a different view on things without and and then just kind of be like, yeah, like I I I just say you missed the top, but you still got most of the move. And there's nothing wrong with that, right? There's absolutely nothing wrong with that. Um, and we've seen that actually with with metals recently. Like I've seen a lot of people who've been riding the metals bull market for a long time feel really bad because they they didn't sell that wick up, right? But I mean, like like look at the move. Would you would you have rather been in the bull market and missed that little top right there than not to have been in it at all? So, you know, it's just a different way of thinking, I think. Um, but yeah, I mean, right now, let's see where Bitcoin just so Bitcoin just went to 63,000. So that is officially a 50% drop, right? So now Bitcoin has in fact dropped uh dropped about about 50%. And and this was this was kind of the main 2019 comparison that we talked about because in 2019 when Bitcoin dropped, it, even excluding the pandemic, Bitcoin still dropped about 53, 54%. Now, if Bitcoin were to drop 53, 54% from the high, that actually puts Bitcoin, guess what? Right at the 200-day moving average, right? With our our date with destiny, which I do think will inevitably happen, unfortunately. I just I don't I can't tell you the day it's going to happen, but it is something that I think is likely going to happen this year. Um, and it's just the way the market goes, right? It's just the way the market goes. Uh, for stuff like Ethereum. Honestly, what I I mean, you know, when you look at at the regression band for Ethereum, I think you have to, you know, I think you have to look at this and say the most likely, again, I don't know for sure, but this low down here, right, these lows down here, they're they're probably going to be tested at some point, would be my guess. And Ethereum then going to sort of the lower part of the regression band. It's already back at the fair value. It's below it, but that doesn't mean it can't eventually go to the lower part of the regression band, which it has done many times throughout history. Like it has done that um several times throughout history and and perhaps this time is is in fact no different. Um, so, you know, we'll we'll obviously continue to to track Bitcoin here. I need to keep an eye on the time because I got to run. I got to leave here in about 15 minutes or so. So, I don't want to get too lost. Um, so, uh, again, if you guys are just joining, make sure you guys subscribe, give the video a thumbs up. Uh, wow, we got about 8,000 people watching on YouTube. That's quite a lot. Says we have says we have 20 20 uh 25,000 people watching on on Twitter. I know it's called X, but I'm sorry. It's Twitter for me. I don't think I'm ever going to call it that. It's Twitter. Uh, so about 20 25,000 on Twitter, 8,000 on on YouTube. Not really sure if I believe those Twitter numbers, though. Um, all right.

At what point would you be convinced to actually believe in the super cycle? The the problem is like why is that the line of thinking? Like why is the Couldn't I pose the the question back at you? Like at what point would you like at what point would you be convinced that you're not in a super cycle, right? Like how low does Bitcoin have to go for you to believe it? I mean, is there a chance I'm wrong? There's always a chance I'm wrong, but when the market is melting down, it seems like the more relevant question would be to ask more of the the super cycle guys like what would convince them that they are wrong? Because the four-year cycle guys are are doing pretty well right now. I mean, as as far as the four-year cycle goes, this looks pretty standard. You know, it looks pretty standard.

Do you think that bottom could be in summer instead of October? Yeah, it's possible. I I could see the low being as early as May. Um, my guess is that the low occurs sometime between May and October. I have a slight preference for October over May, but there are a couple of reasons and I'll talk about them later on, maybe closer to May. There are a couple of reasons why it could happen as early as early as May. Um, one of the I mean, we'll talk more about it later, but yeah, I would say May or I would say October is the most likely. The second most likely month is May. It could also be any other month, right? I'm just saying like what I what I would consider to be the most likely times. October has the highest chance, I would say like 60% chance that happens in October and then I would say maybe like 20% chance that happens in May and then the other 20% is just divvied up amongst all the other months, right? That's probably how I would think about it.

Why May? Well, I don't know about May. I mean, like, it's not my base case. It's not my base case. It's just there's there's evidence. Like, I could find evidence for it. If you said, "Ben, go find evidence for why May could be the low." I could find it. I just think that October is the more likely outcome, but because there's a chance it could be May, I'll start thinking about it then. If you actually go back and look in the uh in the stock market in the 1970s, um, you know, the four-year cycle is a thing that exists outside of Bitcoin. So, it does not have any monopoly on it. And you can see in the 1950s, 60s, 70s and '80s, we had lows approximately every four years. You have 1958, a 1962, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1978, 1982. You see how this the four-year cycle like Bitcoin does not monopolize this idea of a four-year cycle. But when you look at the lows in some of these bare market years, or sometimes they were two years, you have sometimes it's October, right? October of '66. Um, you also can look at at '74 and see it was October of 1974. So, October seems reasonable. But in 1970, it was actually May. And if you had waited till October, you would have missed out on the actual low. So, I would say October is more likely. But if Bitcoin gets like a a big teardrop candle into May, maybe that's it. You know, I don't know. But I would say sometime between May and October. October being more preferential. Perhaps May, most likely October. Um, there's another reason why I I think May could be it. Uh, as well, there's a couple other reasons. Uh, but I'm going to save one of them for later. Okay. I'm going to save one of them for later. And we're not going to talk about it right now. Save it. We'll save it for a rainy day as to as to maybe maybe May. The other reason is is if you look at uh MicroStrategy. This is not the reason I'm talking about, but you look at MicroStrategy, you could argue that last cycle it essentially bottomed in May and then it just had a slightly lower low later that year. Um, but yeah, perhaps perhaps May, perhaps October. Honestly, if you had asked me a couple of months ago, I would have said 80% chance October. Now that things have been accelerating, I'm I still lean October, but there's part of me that that knows that if it continues like this, it could happen sooner. There is there is a chance it happens sooner than October if this continues to accelerate. Okay? So just just be aware that that things can change. Like I don't know exactly what it's going to look like. I mean, if if Bitcoin were to have some type of massive cascade down to like 20K or 30K or 40K. I mean, like at that point, like would I would I really want to be overly deterministic about it about it being a a bare market? I already said a long time ago that after we have a 50% drop, I don't want to be too deterministic and and that's where we are right now. So, I would say May is has a has some potential for the low, but also consider October uh a little bit more and and then we'll see we'll kind of see where we are uh by May. My guess is that if if May is the bottom, then you you will have a rally before then, right? You you will have a rally that'll suck people back in and then it'll still go to a to a lower low. Um, it would be something like what you saw in in some of these prior cycles. Like if you look at this cycle compared to um some of the other cycles, you can see how we'll occasionally set these lows and then rally up for a lot for a few weeks, couple months, and then go to a new low.

All right, Bitcoin's now at 63. So we are certainly cliff-dwelling here. Um, USD or uranium. I didn't mean to click on that one. We can talk about uranium in a second. Your USDT dominance chart. So, I I would look at at USDT dominance plus USDC dominance. If you guys remember, we talked about this. We did a video on it about a month ago. And the video title, if I remember correctly, was called an unfortunate pattern. And the pattern is essentially when when uh USDT dominance runs the highs, it corrects to the bull market support band and then runs higher. We've seen that pattern in the HSI. We saw it with Palladium. We saw it with Bitcoin dominance. We saw it with so many different things that it was hard to ignore. And you can see just how it played out, right? Sweep the highs, give people, you know, a little counter-trend rally back up to Bitcoin's bull market support band, get rejected, and then go into the crypto winter is essentially how it's playing out. Uh, make sure you guys subscribe. If you're not subscribed, give the video a thumbs up. We still got quite a few people watching. We got over 8,500 on uh on YouTube. It's been quite a while. 30,000 total if you include Twitter. Um, and remember, we do have uh ITC Premium, and you can use the coupon code ITC50 to get 50% off your first month. Um, if this is a 2019 style bear, it could be a lot shorter than October. It's possible.

Would I pivot from altcoins? Now, I've said to pivot from altcoins like every month for the last five years. I even put out a a tweet in early January saying to pivot from altcoins and people gave me hell for it because because they thought that there was no way that altcoins could possibly go lower. I believe that was on January 10th. Um, and and since then alts are down another 24%. Right? So it just goes to show you how how much these things can truly get wrecked. And I hope you can understand that like, you know, pivoting away from from altcoins, you know, it was just based on it was based on my understanding of the macro. Uh, and I I think it worked out. I I know some people assume that that they know the macro better, but again, like the macro has not really justified calling for alt season at any point in the last 5 years. So, had they been calling for it, it makes me severely question their understanding of the macro to begin with. Uh, Bitcoin is now below 63K. It's now at 62. I have taken a lot of crap from people. Absolutely. Um, yeah, someone asked about the supply and profit and loss. I think I'm I think I only update it like once a day. Can't remember, but we can pull it up. This one. Yeah, it hasn't updated yet today. I I don't think it's updated yet. It'll it'll look different in in a few hours. Right now, Bitcoin is now at 62K. We also do have the direct access option on the website as well if anyone's interested in that. All right, we're at 62 and a half basically. I got to go on about seven minutes unfortunately. Um, I mean, this it's pretty brutal chart and I mean, the hard part about bare markets is you don't have to have a dime in the market and it still can feel somewhat like existential dread, you know, even if you're not even if you're not uh even if you're on the right side of it, like it's hard. I like it's hard to go through a bare market without feeling some type of like, oh crap, like, is this it, you know? Um, it it kind of reminds me of of this right here where like it kind of slowly went up and then just capitulated down, went back up a little and then capitulated down again, you know, and then eventually we found a low and then we just kind of slowly went up for a while and then eventually the bull market support band caught up to it. Bare market resistance band pushed us down one more time and then the bare market was over. So, we're still trying to find that like initial low. Um, I know everyone's been screaming about the RSI a lot recently. So, we can pull that up. The problem is the RSI can always stay really low for a while and then you can see that it has. I mean, it's currently at the daily RSI is at 15. You know, no one's denying there's going to be a bounce at some point. The hard part is, you know, no one knows when it's going to be on on the the monthly RSI. What I what I would potentially be looking at is is, you know, these lower lows to potentially hold again. Maybe maybe that's what you look at for the monthly RSI uh to hit this trend line down here. I think there's a lot more value in something like the monthly uh than than looking at things like the daily and the weekly.

How low do I think it can go? I have absolutely no idea. And I've made price predictions. Sometimes they work out. Most of the time they don't because no one actually knows where things will top or bottom. Um, so I think it's just better to try to try to respond to the market that you have. Like trade the market you have, not the market that you want. Just know which way the wind is blowing. And and when the wind starts to turn the other way, then you start to to to change your tune. So that's the way I'm playing this right now. You know, it looks like Bitcoin is is getting pretty close here to its uh to its 200-day moving average, which I'm not I honestly don't I honestly don't think that that will be the the ultimate low. I mean, if it if it can act as a support for a few weeks, that'd be nice, but I don't I don't necessarily expect it to be the bottom. It wasn't the bottom last cycle. It could be. I mean, it could I'm not saying it can't be the bottom. Just if this would be kind of the the level that you would start to expect to see some bulls try to take the stand because if they don't if they don't do it there, I mean, when are they going to do? I think Bitcoin's front-running the stock market. I do think the stock market is is dropping, you know, is about to have like a 10 to 15% drop at least. I mean, the stock market could eventually come back down to the April lows just like Bitcoin did um, but if it does that, it'll It'll still take a while to get there, but I I just put out a video on stocks just a few days ago, so hopefully some of you guys have have seen that. Wow, 9600. It's a shame I have to leave in four minutes. All right, any last questions that I are not repetitive?

Oh, I wanted to talk about Bitcoin dominance a little bit. So, with Bitcoin dominance, what's pretty clear right now is that it's it's it's it's kind of just following the 2019 move where after it topped around the end of QT, it then just slowly went down for a while and then eventually it spikes back up, right? Eventually it spikes back up, but right now we're we're in this phase. So that is is probably going to last um at least through the bare market at this point. Ultimately, I do think Total 2 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin will come back down to these lows, but it might not happen until say like December or like late this year. I I could see it taking a while to get there. Um, so I I just want people to be aware that this is the eventual outcome for Total 2 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin, but that it could it could take a while to get there. And in the short term, obviously, Bitcoin dominance does not have to immediately go up. And this is exactly what happened in 2019 is Bitcoin, the bare market started and then Bitcoin dominance started to drop, but dominance started to drop because Bitcoin was dropping faster than the altcoins. And the reason why that was was because the altcoins already got annihilated. What's interesting is that Bitcoin's down 13 almost 14%. But I mean, there's a lot of coins down more, right? Like Doge is down on 15. Solana is down 14. A lot of these are actually down more. Even Ethereum is down around the same amount as Bitcoin. Um, so one of the reasons dominance is is dropping too. I I mean, if you look at again, if you look at stablecoin dominance, like that's that's currently spiking a lot. So, if you were to look at like Bitcoin dominance plus USDT dominance plus USDC dominance, that's going up. So, that's like that flight to safety. That includes Bitcoin dominance, right? That's the flight to safety. Uh, and you can see that's heading back up um towards the highs.

All right, guys. I think I'm going to wrap this up. Um, let's hope hopefully Bitcoin will will find some type of low soon that it can build some type of construction off of and and we can get through this bare market in one piece. But those are my thoughts on the market right now. Hopefully some of you guys were able to to to hold on to some of your money and not get caught up in this carnage. I know it's not easy, you know, listening to me talk about bare markets and stuff, but I I truly was just trying to help. Anyways, if you wouldn't mind subscribing, give the video a thumbs up. Uh, and again, check out ITC Premium. You can use the coupon code in the description below to get 50% off your first month, ITC50. Thank you guys. I'll see you next time. Bye.