Transcription
Hello, this is Cryptolie. I hope you are doing well with this weekend. A weekend that has been complicated in total uncertainty between the shutdown, which is the second longest shutdown, perhaps soon the first if we continue like this. Macroeconomic instability with the economic war returning to the table, the USA, and you will see that it's not just China, it's also Canada. We will come back to that. On the other hand, we have very good news, still and always, in the crypto domain. Unfortunately, it's not pumping. Not yet. While we find ourselves with an American economy that only has eyes for Jerome Powell here. Jerome Powell, who will speak next week, and discussions between Xi Jinping and Trump also next week, and that promises volatility. We will just start with a piece of news, a piece of news that is quite significant. We will find CZ who is pardoned. Yes, Donald Trump pardons CZ. Apparently, he was not really guilty and was mainly persecuted by the Biden administration. So, even if I think there was a real desire from the Biden administration to bring Binance to its knees, I'm not necessarily sure that these people were not guilty, particularly in the acceptance of certain funds and the lack of regulation of Binance in certain areas. Even though it has been stated several times that it was a desire, that it was the only way Binance could evolve. But then, what happened concretely? And that's where we can ask questions about Trump, particularly the relationship he has with crypto people, and also, is it beneficial for us? On this, I will just remind you that the deal that was signed for the Abu Dhabi investment in Binance was chosen and was made on USD1.2 billion, which were minted directly on the crypto of World Liberty Financial, globally, of the Trump family and Trump. As a reminder, the business of stablecoins is to recover about 4% on the amount that was minted, meaning created. So, that means that all of them will recover 4% of 2 billion dollars. Yes, that's a lot, that's a great income, and we can indeed draw a correlation between the two, wonder why there was a connection, and wouldn't this be pure and simple corruption? I think that indeed there is a very, very big tolerance on this side, in any case on Trump's side, on Yes, no, it's not corruption, but it is at the same time. But it's not, don't worry, everything will be fine. I made a video about it, I'll put it at the end of this video and I'll put it in the top right corner if you want to see it. It's very important to understand the relationship between cryptos and the end of Trump. You will see that it's not as simple as expected. In other news, which is rather positive this time, is that despite the shutdown, we are still working on the crypto bill, which should arrive. So, it's a law in the US that should frame the crypto market structure here, which would be very positive despite the shutdown. We continue to move forward. This also shows how much there is a real desire to structure this, and it's positive. The other news that should not be missed is that Fidelity has decided to open, finally, Solana directly for buying and selling for all its clients. This doesn't mean it will be included in portfolios or that it's recommended. No, no, it just means that people who use Fidelity's platforms can now buy and sell Solana. It takes its place alongside Lcoin. Now, this doesn't mean it's being pushed. Be careful, Lcoin is indeed right here. But in this case, it's positive because it means we are once again opening Solana to different investors, and especially that Solana doesn't yet have many ETFs to inject liquidity. We will see what happens once the SEC reopens its doors and the shutdown is over. And I can assure you that we have a host of ETFs waiting for us, ready to launch, and we will see after the liquidity injection that we will find in these ETFs. In other news, we have BTC miners who have a colossal increase in their debt. We're talking about 500%, so we're really in a multiplication of debt, and we can ask the question: is it really because of Bitcoin, or is it because of other things? When we look at the title of this article, we might think it's the hash rate. So, it's the difficulty of the Bitcoin network to mine that leads to the increase in debt. Whereas, not really, it's mainly because they have a lot of Capex investments, meaning industrial creation, to enter a new market, which will be the artificial intelligence market. And hence this expansion that we find here. Because, of course, it's not the same infrastructure at all. They will just use the energy deals they were able to secure for BTC mining to drive this power towards another type of deal. And so, of course, we see a lot of investments. So, this means it's something that complements what they already have. The other good news, for me, was found in the open. So, the announcements we found at Ledger. One announcement that was quite significant for me was the two main ones. It was the fact that Ledger Live becomes Ledger Wallet and marks their real desire to open up not just to a hardware wallet, but much more to an all-in-one application with a hardware wallet alongside it. It's really a structural shift for me. It wouldn't be surprising in the coming months, perhaps in the coming years. I might be a bit optimistic on this side, to see Ledger try to position itself as a new form of bank with their application, and that's very positive. And especially since they have now included multisig directly in Ledger, and that's very, very positive for the future. They also took the opportunity to launch the Ledger Nano. I remind you that this video is not sponsored by Ledger at all, it's just that I find the product quite interesting. I had the pleasure of being able to use it, and I can assure you that it's more responsive and intuitive than the Flex. So, it's interesting, and it's especially cheaper. If you want to take action, you have a small link in the comments in the description. And the product itself is really nice. We see a rather positive evolution at Ledger. Now, I know there are many Ledger detractors. Personally, having met the team, it's a team that is really focused on security, which cannot be said of all hardware wallet creators. Meanwhile, on the macroeconomic side, with Trump still causing ripples, he has decided to stop all negotiations with Canada on customs duties. And yes, apparently they paid for advertising to mock Trump and the USA on tariffs. That didn't go down well. Immediate reaction, and we know very well how he is. He uses tariffs to once again assert geopolitics and geopolitical power. And that's exactly what he's also doing with Xi Jinping, meaning with China, with a meeting scheduled for October 30th, while tariffs are to be applied on November 1st. So, basically, 48 hours. So, of course, very strong, very powerful negotiations. Well, in any case, it will be delayed. We see it very well, 3 minutes, 5 minutes before, he writes a little tweet saying, well, we're delaying until December 1st, and then we'll see later. I doubt a deal will be signed right away, but in any case, it will be delayed, and I think that's one of the main reasons why the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are not far from making a new ATH, because we are looking at what? Jerome Powell again, Wednesday, Thursday. We have the meeting between Xi Jinping and Trump, but the market is mainly looking at Jerome Powell. Jerome Powell, who unfortunately doesn't have data, or at least not the official data that is published. I think he has some form of data, they do have access to certain data despite the shutdown, but do we have any way to anticipate it? The only thing we can see is that we might have a Fed that would be more conciliatory given the difficulty with the shutdown, given everything that can happen alongside it, namely that the shutdown is very expensive. And I also saw a news item about a billionaire who wrote a check for 130 million dollars to alleviate the shutdown debt a bit. I think that's still quite insufficient on this side. There will certainly be an impact on the American economy, and I think it will be priced in by Jerome Powell and by the type of discourse he will have, of course. That's why we are pushing. We'll see next week. I think next week will be very, very volatile with all the different announcements we'll have. And I'll tell you at the end of this video what I think about BTC, especially this weekend, because I think we'll anticipate all of this again. On BTC, we are pushing mainly thanks again to liquidations of short sellers. This time, we have $246 million in liquidations, so still less. Which is rather positive. It means the market is calming down, but at the same time, the market is compressing. So, maybe that's why it's calming down, because there's very little volatility directly integrated into BTC prices. We see the closing we are making on the CME. Even if I don't show you the CME, the CME closes its week tonight. So, of course, we will have a candle, and the candle itself remains, if it's like this and we have a good day today, rather positive, and it will be a first point for a potential reversal next week. Regarding ETFs, let's not hide it, we have very little action, almost nothing in terms of volume coming in. We're talking about $20 million integrated, so very little volume, so consequently very little movement, mainly driven by short squeezes. We see that we have made a rebound and a retest again at $108,000. A very, very important level. The rebound is holding. We'll see if we can break this red line in the coming days. That's $112,000. For me, the most important thing, and I've been repeating it for a few days now, is that we need to break $114,000 and ideally especially $116,000 and ideally close above it. That's the most important point for me to break a downtrend and have an inflection point to start again in an uptrend. When we look at the RSI, we see that momentum is building, and we need to maintain this momentum. I think we will have an answer on Sunday evening anyway, because we will have pre-pricing. So, that means we will either have a breakout with an upward acceleration and a breakout around $116, and we will settle there, perhaps test, and then go into an acceleration phase, or conversely, we will unfortunately do something like this with a breakout of $106,600, which will be a first signal for me to go lower, so lower to $103, and lower to the wick that was left, meaning globally to retest $100,000, which is a somewhat visible target that we can see. Let's see, which is also the 0.5 of the total movement we have on the daily. If we look at the daily and the entire movement we've had, with the low in April 2025, we have a Fibonacci from the low to the high. We see that the 0.5 is around $100,000, which is a rather normal consolidation zone for a retest before moving on, and we might have a small wick below. That's why we need to be very careful, and we will certainly have the answer before Jerome Powell, because we will have pricing, then volatility after Jerome Powell, and then a real start in the days that will certainly happen in November. What we would like is to finish the month of October on a positive note, and we see that we are rather well on our way with the recovery we've seen in recent days. But it's not enough yet. We don't have momentum because we are in a decision-making phase, because we have no visibility on the shutdown, on all the information I've given you on macroeconomics, even if the crypto part is advancing. Ultimately, macroeconomics and exceptional management and their liquidity flows depend mainly also on their risk management, which also depends on the news from Donald Trump. I would like to finish by giving a vision and a comparison of what I have just presented to you with Total 2. Total 2 is everything except BTC, and we see that we have a similar structure with the same levels, except that the levels are much further apart. Where I explained $116,000, the equivalent of $116,000 is 1.61, and the distance between 1.52 and 1.61 is enormous. So, we will really need a very strong impulse on this side for Total 2. But we are also in this dynamic, even at the level of momentum and RSI. Similarly, when we look at the total market, we see that we are in the same type of momentum, exactly identical. And when we look at, meaning all cryptos except the top 10, well, it might be a bit flatter and a bit less volatile. Here, if I show it to you like this, it's perhaps a bit better, but especially we see that we have a gap between 2.61 and 2.82. Again, we will need to push hard, but we have a structure that is almost identical, a momentum that is almost identical, which is perhaps a bit behind in terms of but is still well present. And so, this means that there is really a momentum that is structuring itself, and we have something that is moving in the right direction. This is one of the factors that makes me say that we should have an acceleration phase. Now, will we now manage to break the key zones? I don't know yet. We will have to monitor that in the coming days, and we will do it together anyway. I hope this video has helped you. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, before you leave, don't forget to like, subscribe, and I'll put it at the end of this video. In a few moments, you will see a small screen with a small video which is about Trump and corruption. If you are interested in seeing what is really happening behind the scenes, you will see that it can be chilling if you didn't know all of this. I wish you a good day and I'll see you very soon.