Transcription
We're going to begin tonight with breaking news. We're following the latest developments in the Middle East in the fight to end the war with Iran.
Just moments ago, Trump posted on Truth Social. "The deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all. I hereby fully authorize the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz and simultaneously herewith authorize the immediate removal of the United States naval blockade. Ships of the world, start your engines, let the oil flow."
Also tonight, Pakistan's prime minister announced the official signing ceremony will be on Friday, the 19th of June in Switzerland, adding, quote, "We would like to thank the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN FOR THEIR COMMITMENT TO FINDING A DIPLOMATIC SOLUTION TO THE CONFLICT."
So, Ayman, I have to go first to you to understand this. I mean, gut first reaction is, I think millions of Americans will be relieved to hear that there is a deal here of some kind. But I think there will also be some some trepidation, some confusion about the details as they emerge of what's about to happen next. And I think just the ultimate question is, are we better off right now in this moment, do you think, than we were when this whole war began?
Yeah, I mean, there's a lot to unpack there. And the short answer to your question is no, we are not better off. You know, just on the surface of it, you've had 13 American servicemembers killed. You've had thousands of Iranians, including schoolchildren killed. You've had a region in turmoil, and not to mention the people that have been killed in Lebanon and people killed throughout the Arabian Gulf. So just from a sheer human toll, we are not better off.
And the reason why I say we are not better off is because the core questions that all of this was predicated upon, will Iran have a nuclear program? Will it stop its support for proxies? Will it give up its ballistic weapons? Will it give up to its Arab neighbors? None of those questions have been answered definitively. And so what it really does raise is, well, what has been achieved in this agreement? And it simply brings us back to February 27th, where we were on the eve of this war.
You can see a lot of stress in President Trump's post when he says, "let the oil flow," right? Because you can clearly see that this was a major issue that had America and the global economy somewhat crippled as a result of this war. And the first thing he does is acknowledge, not signaling anything to the brave American men and women who died in this war, not saying that this was a costly war, but saying to oil companies and to shipping companies, "start your engines, let the oil flow." And it gives you a sense of the desperation and the pressure that Donald Trump was facing as a result of this war of choice, not a war of necessity, something that a lot of people said you did not need to do. And that, I think, is the context in which today's agreement is important to kind of keep in mind as we talk about it.
I come back to the point that what we want to understand about this deal has not, you know, moved forward. And the reason why I kind of say it like that is if you go back to February 27th, where the United States was engaging in negotiations with Iran to try to end its nuclear program, we know that is not part of this immediate deal. The framework, as I understand it from speaking to people over the past several days, is that this deal immediately ends the war and at the same time opens the Strait of Hormuz. And the questions about Iran's nuclear program, its enriched uranium, all of that would be discussed over the next 60 days. So the real work begins. Exactly. In a separate track of negotiation. So that's where we are now. We're just going back to February 27th, and to your point, the real negotiations are now going to start over the next 60 days, which can be extended indefinitely so long as the two sides are involved in these talks.
THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WOULD ARGUE THAT, WELL, THEY'VE MADE A DENT IN IRAN'S CAPABILITIES, IN THEIR WEAPONRY, IN THEIR MILITARY. WHAT DO YOU THINK OF THAT CLAIM GIVEN THAT WE SAW ACTUALLY A PRETTY ROBUST DRONE CAPABILITY THAT WE KNEW that Iran had, but had not exercised in the region in the way it did during this war.
Yeah, it's a really good point. And there's a few things that I would kind of tackle with that. One is, I think it was just a week ago that the Iranian shot down an Apache helicopter right over the Straits of Hormuz. With a drone. With a drone. And then on top of that, they attacked Israel just a couple days as well. I think it was last week as well when they attacked Israel with drones. They attacked Kuwait a week ago and killed a civilian there at the airport there. So whether or not you want to kind of get into the semantics of what the administration is, "we destroyed their Navy, we destroyed their military, we destroyed whatever it is." True. But Iran is still capable of inflicting damage on our Arab allies, on us and on Israel. So the reality is Iran may have been weakened as a result of this war. True. But at the same time, it still has an WE HAVE AN UNBELIEVABLE CAPABILITY TO INFLICT A LOT OF DAMAGE ON US.
So I wouldn't take a lot of value in what Donald Trump is saying about how much we've degraded Iran's capability. But I go back to February 27th, which was prior to that, Iran had not attacked its Arab neighbors, it did not have leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. It had not, you know, directly engaged in direct war with Arab countries. It has done all of that as a result of the American war. So on some hand, Iran has been degraded. But at the same time, we have learned so much more about their capabilities. And now the country is being run apparently by much more hardline elements within the regime, and more of the power is consolidated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, which is way more hard-line than some of the moderate politicians that the United States had negotiated with in the past and who were kind of more are open to dealing with the United States. You have hardliners now in Iran who are making these decisions about war, and they feel emboldened by what they have just...
Well, that's the other thing missing from Trump's post is, you know, you mentioned how he's sort of sending a direct message to oil companies. He obviously wants to fix the economic woes that we're all living with. But where did the whole message around like freedom, democracy and the protests go? There is no message there to the Iranian people living in Iran under this regime that you just mentioned. And the attempt to build a lot of support for what started in February, you know, it hinged on a lot of that. And I know that analysts were warning, they're never going to do it. They're never going to do it. This regime change operation is not real. It's a cover for something else. So I'm not saying that I'm surprised, but I do think it is sort of sad because we had, you know, Iranians on our air who had high hopes of things changing.
In announcing the war, he teased that he encouraged the protesters to rise up. Yes, he did. The Israelis did as well. There was a whole global sort of drumbeat around this, but now. Now it's not even like, oh, we're sorry and we're going to bring that back to the table in some form. It just seems like the question of, like, human rights in Iran, that doesn't really matter to what happens next. I cannot emphasize this enough, as somebody who has covered the Middle East multiple decades. The United States may pay lip service to democracy and human rights and freedom in the Middle East, but its actions do not support that rhetoric. And I think this is just the latest example of that particular approach.
Donald Trump promised democracy and freedom to the Iranian people. He signaled regime change. He told them it's time to claim your country. The Israeli prime minister did the same exact thing, only to see that the United States government, and to be specific, this Trump administration, I would go so far as saying betraying the aspirations and the hopes of the Iranian PEOPLE WHO RISKED THEIR LIVES BACK IN JANUARY AND FOR THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS AND RISING UP. YOU GOT THE WOMEN LIFE FREEDOM MOVEMENT, THE GREEN MOVEMENT BEFORE THAT. MANY MOVEMENTS WITHIN IRAN WHO HAVE ASPIRED FOR DEMOCRATIC REFORM IN THAT COUNTRY, WHO ARE HINGING their hopes on the U .S. and doing something, failing to follow through with it this time around as well.
All right. Well, we're next going to bring in Congressman Adam Smith. He's the ranking member of the Armed. CONGRESSMAN, IT'S GOOD TO HAVE YOU BACK ON THE SHOW. WE'RE JUST GOING TO INVITE YOU INTO THE CONVERSATION THAT WE WERE JUST HAVING THERE. I HOPE YOU WERE ABLE TO HEAR SOME OF IT. BUT HOW DO YOU VIEW TO THE CURRENT STATE OF PLAY, GIVEN WHAT YOU MAY KNOW ABOUT THE DEAL ANNOUNCED TONIGHT. DO YOU THINK THAT WE ARE BETTER OFF ON ANY, ON A SINGLE METRIC? ARE WE BETTER TODAY, SAFER TODAY THAN WE WERE BACK IN FEBRUARY?
No, I mean, I substantially agree with pretty much everything that Ayman said in your first segment there. I mean, the two big initial reactions are one, I really hope this sticks because stopping this war is so important. I mean, the devastation it's caused certainly not only throughout the Middle East, but across the world economically. You know, it has expanded in all the ways that Ayman described. You have Iran attacking, gosh, half a dozen or more different countries in the Middle East, the war between Israel and Lebanon has exploded. Israel's actions in the West Bank continue apace. We have a lot of violence and conflict. That this can be a step towards calming that down and moving us towards its peace, then I'm very excited about it.
But second, it makes it very clear that this war was just a colossal mistake. No, we are not any better off. I think Eyman summed it up quite well. I mean, the straight-up war moves wasn't on the table. THE ARAB NEIGHBORS HAD NOT BEEN ATTACKED BY IRAN, NOW THEY HAVE. AND BASICALLY WE'RE SORT OF BACK WHERE WE WERE WHEN WE STARTED. NO CLEAR NUCLEAR DEAL. AND ALL WE'VE DONE IS REOPENED A STRAIGHT THAT, WELL, SORRY, WE HAVEN'T DONE THIS YET. IF THIS PLAYS OUT, WHICH IS STILL AN OPEN QUESTION, EVEN IF IT PLAYS OUT, ALL WE'VE DONE IS REOPENED A STRAIGHT THAT WAS OPENED IN THE FIRST PLACE.
And I want to get at one quick thing. The the core problem here with Netanyahu and Trump is they seem to think that they can vanquish all of their enemies, that whatever conflict they face, if they simply apply enough force, they will WE'LL GET EVERYTHING WE WANT. THAT IS JUST NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. THIS IS A SITUATION THAT'S GOING TO HAVE TO BE MANAGED. WE CANNOT KILL OUR WAY OUT OF IT. AND I STILL DON'T FUNDAMENTALLY THINK THAT EITHER PRESIDENT TRUMP OR PRIME MINISTER NETANYAHU UNDERSTAND THAT. WE HAVE TO FIND PARTNERS FOR PEACE, NOT JUST ENEMIES THAT WE WANT TO KILL.
Congressman, let's play a clip of President Barack Obama earlier on ABC and what he had to say about this deal and Iran. "It is doubtful that any agreement that arises is going to be significantly different or a significant improvement from the deal that we had. I'm hopeful that bombing stops and ordinary people are no longer suffering as a consequence of the war."
Congressman, so you you kind of have the conundrum that Democrats are in politically. The good thing for the world is that this deal, I think it's a great thing that the war is contained and hopefully we can go back to where we were before. But it I think it didn't accomplish anything except putting us in this worst position and showing us the capabilities that Iran has with drone warfare. Because it's Trump, though, Republicans are probably going to be okay with giving Iran some money. They're going to say this is the most incredible accomplishment the world has ever seen. And they'll just basically flush the facts down the toilet and just say what they ever want to do. And I hope that we hold them to the facts on this.
And this was always the problem with Iran. I remember back when I was a strong supporter of the were critical of the JCPOA and a lot of people were critical of it. Well, it doesn't do anything about their ballistic missile program, doesn't do anything about their support for terrorists. There was nothing on the table that was going to address those issues. Iran is a nation of 93 million people with a hardcore Islamic regime that is dug in and not something that you can simply REMOVE, WHICH MEANS YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE TO DEAL WITH THEM. YOU KNOW, AND PRESIDENT OBAMA WAS THE FIRST PRESIDENT TO ACTUALLY ACCEPT THAT REALITY. I THINK FAREED ZAKARIA WROTE A PIECE A COUPLE WEEKS AGO ABOUT HOW THE FUNDAMENTAL CONFLICT WITH U .S. AND IRAN IS WE WERE ALWAYS LIKE ON THE ONE HAND SAYING WE'D BE BETTER OFF IF THEY WERE GONE. ON THE OTHER HAND, WE WERE TRYING TO DEAL WITH THEM AND YOU REALLY CAN'T DO BOTH, OKAY? YOU CAN'T BE TRYING TO COMPLETELY REMOVE A REGIME AND AT THE SAME TIME WORK WITH THEM. AND PRESIDENT THEY WERE A FACT OF LIFE, NOT ONE THAT WE'RE HAPPY ABOUT. I KNOW 47 YEARS WORTH OF CONFLICT. THEY HAVE SUPPORTED HEZBOLLAH, HAMAS, THEY ARE DUTEFULLY TRYING TO ELIMINATE THE STATE OF ISRAEL. ALL OF THAT, WE DON'T HAVE WE HAVE A PLAN ON THE TABLE TO ELIMINATE THEM SO WE HAD BETTER COME UP WITH A PLAN TO DETER THEM AND DEAL WITH THEM. AND SADLY, ON FEBRUARY 27th, WE WERE AS CLOSE AS WE'VE EVER BEEN, OKAY? AND PART OF THIS IS YOU DO YOU HAVE TO FIGHT SOMETIMES. DON'T MISUNDERSTAND WHAT I'M SAYING. I UNDERSTAND ISRAEL HAD TO MAKE SURE THEY CONTAINED THAT THREAT. BUT THEY HAD DONE THAT AS OF FEBRUARY 27TH. IRAN WAS IN THE WEAKEST POSITION THEY HAD BEEN IN, WE WERE IN A POSITION TO NEGOTIATE A DECENT DEAL. AND INSTEAD NETANYAHU AND TRUMP DECIDED, NO, I THINK WE CAN DO THIS ONE QUICK STRIKE AND THEY'LL BE GONE. AND THE DEPTHS OF THE STUPIDITY IN REACHING THAT CONCLUSION JUST CANNOT BE ADEQUATELY PLUMBED.
Congressman, let me ask you about that situation, the relationship between America and Israel right now because there is the concern that Israel could play spoiler to this. From from what we understand, and certainly from what I've learned about this deal, the Iranians want to include Lebanon in that agreement. Donald Trump has hinted that he will incorporate Lebanon to the extent that he can. But he's also called reporters today, or at least he spoke to reporters today, which he often does whenever he wants to try to tout an achievement and a success. And he's expressed his frustrations with Benjamin Netanyahu about the strike in southern Beirut today. Are you concerned that the prime minister of Israel could play spoiler to this and try to engulf Lebanon in this war, so much so that Iran feels the need or compelled to TO RESPOND?
Yeah, absolutely. And it's the extremists that he put into his cabinet. But to have Smotrich and Ben-Gvir in that cabinet hell-bent on endless war throughout the region is a major impediment to peace. And again, Hezbollah weakened, as weakened as they had been, gosh, in decades. And the Lebanese government anxious to try to work for an alternative to having Hezbollah, having the amount of power they do. And this was an opportunity for the Israeli government to work with the Lebanese government with our support with the Lebanese armed forces not to eliminate Hezbollah. The idea that you're going to somehow be able to the fantasy has always been a fantasy, but you can weaken them. But you could only weaken them if you built up the alternative. The alternative is the Lebanese government, the Lebanese people, the Lebanese armed forces who don't like Hezbollah. But Israel's going to have to accept some risk. Okay? Hezbollah is not going away if they're going to get to peace. Otherwise, they're looking at an endless war and an endless conflict because Hezbollah and other four, they just keep rebuilding and keep attacking Israel in different ways. So I'm very worried about it. I think President Trump better be strong and say we need a ceasefire in Lebanon too.
Congressman, did you get the chance to listen to the U .N. Ambassador Mike Walz earlier? asked because some of what he spelled out in his interview earlier today, it sounded a bit like a pipe dream. I mean, as Eamon was saying EARLIER TONIGHT, THIS IDEA THAT THE WORK ACTUALLY REALLY BEGINS NOW BECAUSE THIS IS WHERE THE DETAILS BECOME CLEAR. ALL THESE CHALLENGES WILL HAVE TO BE ACTUALLY WORKED OUT ACROSS SOME KIND OF TABLE. YOU KNOW, HE WAS SORT OF CONFIDENTLY PROJECTING, FOR EXAMPLE, THAT A I THINK THE FACT ALONE JUST DOESN'T SEEM BELIEVABLE TO ANYONE WHO HAS BEEN.
It's not. Yeah, I mean, that's looking again, again, and come back to my central point, which I made longer than I would have liked, that Trump still imagines somehow he's just going to completely smash Iran. They're not going to be able to do anything. And that's what undermined the JCPOA was the notion that, you know, they made the perfect enemy of the good. Iran's going to be a problem. I understand that. But we need to figure out a way to deter them. And I think this is what Trump has been saying for two months. We have a deal, right? How many times has he said that? But he's HE'S GONE BEYOND SAYING WE HAVE A DEAL. HE SAID IRAN HAS AGREED TO EVERYTHING. THEY'RE GOING TO OPEN UP THE STRAIGHT, GET RID OF THEIR NUCLEAR WEAPONS, STOP SUPPORTING PROXIES. YOU'RE RIGHT. IT IS SORT OF LIKE A WISH FULFILLMENT STRATEGY WHERE IF THEY SAY IT OUT LOUD, THAT'S GOING TO MAKE IT SO. IT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO WORK TOGETHER WITH PARTNERS IN THE REGION TO DETER THE BAD BEHAVIOR OF IRAN. WE ARE NOT GOING TO BE ABLE TO DESTROY IT MILITARILY. NOW, I THINK WE'VE GOT ENOUGH PARTNERS, WE'VE GOT ENOUGH CAPABILITIES THAT WE CAN DETER IT AND WE CAN CONTAIN THAT RISK. BUT AS LONG AS MIKE WALLS AND OTHERS CONTINUE TO FANTASIZE THAT SOMEHOW WE'RE GOING TO APPLY ENOUGH FORCE TO ELIMINATE THE IRANIAN THREAT, THIS THIS PIECE AGREEMENT IS GOING TO BE ON VERY FRAGILE GROUND.
Yeah, and to your point, Congressman, the oil Brent prices, future prices seem to be reacting to the news coming out of Iran. They're down almost 4% to $81 per barrel, $81 per barrel, which I guess is a big sign that the markets are welcoming the news coming out of the region this evening.
Congressman, it's always a pleasure to have you on. Thank you so much for joining us. We're going to squeeze in a break.