Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, market review. We will talk about BTC first. We will of course talk again about the big evening that awaits us with, well, the economic announcements, especially the announcement on the interest rate cut and Puel's speech. Then, we will talk about the altcoins which continue to outperform BTC and you asked me to analyze three altcoins. I noted uni, Air and Plume. So, we will see on these three altcoins if we have any setups that are triggering or not. Well, the big evening is tonight. Okay. So, a lot of volatility to come, already in the first instance. Uh, the first potential interest rate cut which will arrive at 8 PM. So, will we have an interest rate cut? Or on the contrary, no interest rate cut, more probability. In any case, that's what 90% of the market is pricing in. So, it's quite simple, there are two choices. Either we have an interest rate cut, so we will surely have a market push. Why? Because we will have 10% of the market here who will have been wrong and who will surely reprice, a repricing upwards following the interest rate cut. Okay, so we can expect a market that pumps, but slightly. I'm not expecting anything crazy, given that it's not like it's 50/50, we would have a repricing of half. Then I would have told you "Okay, we're going to have a strong pump here." From the moment it's 90/100, there won't be a particularly big pump. Maybe we can even expect a small trap. You never know. Now, if we have no interest rate cut, it's catastrophic for the markets. And there, I think we can expect a good slap, whether it's on cryptocurrencies or on the market, so there you go, to follow on this. We will also have to monitor Puel's speech. Now, we can't anticipate anything. We don't know in advance what he's going to say, we don't know the tone he's going to have, the questions that will be asked to him. So, this is a bit like playing the lottery. You can't anticipate the answers he's going to give in the second. If he has roughly the same approach as in the last meetings he had, it's "I'm waiting for the data, I need more data, inflation can pick up again quite quickly, so we're cautious, we don't want to cut rates too quickly." That's a bit of the discourse he's having at the moment. So, we'll see. For now, we have a market here that is still lateralizing. We see yesterday, we went to test the high, but we didn't close above $94,000. That's why it's really important to wait for the closes. I talk about it very often, but closes are paramount. Why? Because well, we see it clearly again here, a second time here, if we don't wait for the closes and we rush, well, we might have here, yes, a 1-hour breakout. Except that a 1-hour breakout is not what we want for an exit from a range like this. Here, we are on a range that is starting to be mature. We are at least on 12h, even daily. Okay. Well, we don't have a concrete break here. So, for now, more chance of buying again. We are at a high extremity. We are really in a compression phase. Be careful, depending on the volatility tonight, we could potentially go for the stops, have a high hunt to go lower or vice versa, it's entirely possible. Generally, we can expect quite a bit of volatility. Again, depending on what is said. If there's nothing alarming, the market might do nothing. Generally, it's quite rare for those who are not used to experiencing this kind of event. Put yourselves in front of the charts from 8 PM until the end of Poë's meeting, and you will be quite surprised by the volatility we will have. Put it on 5 minutes, starting from 8 PM, from 8:30 PM, as soon as Poë enters the room, as soon as he starts speaking, he will have announced nothing, there will be quite a bit of volatility because we will have a return of volumes and a return of liquidity. At the moment, volumes are rather low, whether on cryptocurrencies or on the US market, it's entirely normal. You see, we are ranging. Why? Because well, investors, traders don't have any catalysts and are especially patient before the speech. They don't want to position themselves because it's a bit like playing the lottery for someone who would position themselves here. So, BTC, well, the scenarios remain globally the same. Okay? Either we have a break, pullback, and we can play the pullback to go for $99,000, or there we would simply have a bottom that would be set and which could cause a rally. There, with potentially a 15% pump. Or else, on the contrary, we don't pump and we have here a rejection to go back to the low extremity. After, we are not in the best period on BTC. If I look at the seasonality here, on Bitcoin, we are in the month of December. Well, historically, it's not the best period, even the January period is not the best period. We see it clearly. Generally, the most interesting periods for BTC are October, November, and then we will see the whole period February, March, April. There, it's until May. Okay. And then, there are two periods that are not incredible, it's summer. After, globally on the markets, in summer, we have a reduction in volatility, and in December, January, why? Because of the transition to a new year for someone who, well, who does their accounts, they won't start taking a lot of risk at the end of the year. So, we have a bit less volume, a bit less liquidity, and that makes the markets a bit calmer. Well, we'll see all that. I maintain that for now, we are still in a range preceded by a bearish dynamic here. We are at a major level of $94,000. We have a pivot point, a H4 tunnel. As long as we don't manage to go above this level, I don't expect anything. However, if we start closing above $94,500, $95,000, have a real confirmation of a breakout, well, then we can play the trend continuation to reach the next level. Especially BTC, it's not the strongest crypto, we'll see that later. Uh, we have Ether which is more interesting. If I look now on the shorter term on BTC, we are still in this compression with a 15-minute tunnel oriented upwards. We see that we perfectly pulled back to the 15-minute tunnel which now acts as support. The tunnel which is the 1-hour tunnel evolving just below. We are back above the daily pivot point, above the 3-minute. After, well, I'm telling you, if we start to have a lot of volatility, technical indicators are good. Now, depending on the volatility that there will be, depending on the buying or selling pressure that there will be, we can very well pierce through like this. So, these are interesting levels, yes, but rather monitor support levels from a price action perspective in case there is a lot of volatility, for example, a previous high or this whole zone. Here, we have quite a few lows to go for, even if we've tested them here. If we have a violent drop at this level, it could be a good thing, plus we have a confluence with the weekly pivot point. After, I very rarely trade economic announcements, unless I see a setup with a lot of probability or an anomaly. I tell myself something unusual is happening and I have a reaction that goes my way, it can happen. But otherwise, I trade news very little. Uh, some news can happen, but Poë's speeches, for me, that's really playing the lottery. So, we are rather in a phase here where we need to preserve our capital. I repeat it often enough, your capital is your working tool. If you don't have any more, you can no longer trade at all. And always ask yourself, if it goes lower, how will you handle it? Even for your long-term investments, we talked about trading, we can come back a bit to investing. If we have another drop of -20% to -30%, how will you handle it? Because many of you say "Oh no, I can't sell now because I'm at -50% of my ATH wallet." And look at the ATH wallet, I've talked about it very often, but it's a big mistake. If I do a little evolution here, let's say you start here at $1,000, okay, 1K. Then you have, let's say, 5K, and then you have 10K. And your wallet does this. So, you start with 1K. Okay. So, here we have the evolution of time with the evolution of your wallet. You start with 1K, your wallet does something like this. Very good. Then there's a pump. Okay. Bam. Very good. Oh, market top on BTC. And then, let's assume, we are here, okay? We are at this level. So, you see, we had this top phase. You performed very well in this phase. Okay, here we dump and we are here. So, here, it's here. And then, many of you will have this reaction of saying "Wow, I can't sell here because now I'm at, I'm at $6K here, approximately." Let's say it's our $6K, whereas I had gone up to 10, even 11K. No, I can't sell, it's not possible. My wallet has been halved, but in fact, take a step back. The problem is that you take the ATH of your wallet as a reference point. You should never take the ATH of your wallet as a reference point. You should take from how much you started. And then you say "Okay, I had 1K, I'm at 6K, I've done an X6." And especially at this level, when you haven't experienced this phase yet, for you it was incredible to be there. You said "Wow, this is amazing, I've done x6" and you're still doing x6. But since you've experienced more, you're biased and you take the top as a reference point. And that's a very big mistake. That's a psychological block for many people, which I also had at the beginning. But you have to get out of it because if you always take your wallet's ATH, automatically you will never sell because it's normal, you won't always be at your wallet's ATH, of course. So, it's normal to have downward phases, and don't hesitate to close some positions, and especially, this is something I see a lot, even in coaching, in supporting people who have, for example, let's take two positions, they have, let's say, Tao, okay, and I don't know, EGLD. They have Tao and EGLD and they have a similar allocation. So, 50% on Tao, 50% on EGLD. One is in profit. So, let's say Tao is at, it's at x2. Okay, and EGLD is in the negative. EGLD is at, it's at, I don't know, -50%. If we look at performance, let's say the person is at -300. Okay? Oops! And here the person is at +300 on their initial capital, on the amount. Okay? And then, if the person has to close their position, they will do it much more on Tao than on EGLD. Let's assume the market drops. Okay? The market takes a hit and drops by -50%. So, that means if Tao drops by -50%, we go from x2 to break-even, we go to zero because what cancels out x2? It's -50%. And on EGLD, well, we go from -50% to -50% further. Uh, it's that the person will say "No, I'm cutting on Tao, why? Why? Because on Tao, they will no longer feel like taking a TP and having a success, whereas on EGLD, it will be more like a defeat, even though it's exactly the same thing. The loss, whether it's -50% on a gain or -50% on a loss that is already ongoing, it's exactly the same. Losing 300 or losing, or losing 300 from a negative position or losing 300 from a position that is positive and goes negative or goes to BE, it's exactly the same. Except that it's harder to close this position. Why? Because here we accept a loss, whereas here we say "No, it's a gain." Even though, as I said, technically it's the same thing. Your final result, your final account is exactly the same. Except that ask yourself, if Tao performed and EGLD underperformed, what's next? Well, EGLD has more chance of continuing to underperform and Tao has more chance of continuing to perform. Ah, I took Tao, I wrote toa, I hadn't seen it. But it doesn't matter. What I want to make you understand is that it's not because you close cryptocurrencies in profit that it's a good thing, okay? On the contrary, often cutting losses and the majority of people do the opposite. They tend to keep the dead weight, keep the losses they have ongoing and not let gains run on the strongest cryptocurrencies because mentally, it's hard to cut a loss. Well, that's what you should simply do. That's my opinion, in any case, on certain situations that you need to take into account and I think many people recognize themselves in this situation. So, well, it went to test $3004, we had seen it, we had seen it together, we had hidden nothing that the breakout of this level was a rather good signal as long as we didn't re-enter globally around $3000 and if we started to settle above, it was directly $3400. We stop exactly at this zone that we defined. Well, we see that we are rejecting. Now, for the moment, we have no top that has formed. We see that we still have a 3-minute tunnel that acts as support. We have buying pressure that is ongoing. We clearly see the flip at the level of the moving averages at this level. The flip of the moving averages occurs at this level. We have a pump, we go above the 15, the 3-minute, and the 1-hour. The 3-minute which indicates the trend, we lose it. 15 minutes, we reject once, we lose it to go back to test the 1-hour tunnel. After, this is the weekend. The market is globally flat. So, I don't take the moving averages too much into account at this level. Until we regain some momentum. And there again, the 15-minute which acts as support, we pump and this time it's the 3-minute. And if we lose the 3-minute, there will be a high chance that the 15-minute will act as support. Here, we are in a context where Ether is leading the market a bit. It's Ether that is stronger than BTC and it's the one that is more interesting to trade, especially in the short term. Now, the plan is quite simple. On Ether, either we have a sell signal at this level, we reject. In that case, we can look for shorts to go for the cost line first and then the low extremity second. Or we don't have that, we have a break, pullback, and in that case, the objective is to go for $3800 here, which would be a good retracement on Ether. If I draw my Fibo here, we would be globally at 0.5 retracement. So, it wouldn't surprise me to retest the cost line of this market top on Ether. Now, we'll have to see if we re-enter, if we reject for a larger structure. We don't know that. In any case, we have come back to test our zone of $2800-$3000. We have set a small bottom. For me, it's not a definitive bottom. Well, it's too early to talk about a definitive bottom since we are only on a V-bottom rebound. And often these V-bottoms need to be tested. Not often. Here's the proof, we went straight back up, we re-entered, but often they need to be retested. Here we have a V-bottom, we retest it once. Here we have a short-term V-bottom, we retest it once, even several times, and even V-tops are retested. V-top, we retest it at this level. V-top, we retest it at this level. V-top, we even retest it several times. Well, that's how the market behaves most of the time. Here, you see V-top, we retest it at this level. It's true that we have, I expected a bigger retest, but we did retest, and even V-bottom rebounds. See here, V-bottom rebound that we retest once, a second time, V-bottom rebound here that we retest again. That's how the market behaves. But in any case, Ether is not bad in what it's showing us right now in terms of the SP500. Now, today, we will have to monitor how it reacts, because it's a bit of the leader, even though we have a correlation between cryptocurrencies and the market. So, we will have to monitor. Will we set a market top or not? For now, never anticipate the top. I'm telling you, we are high, these are difficult levels to enter for the long term, but we remain in a strong uptrend, and the market can stay like this for a long time in an uptrend, for a very, very long time. And I was thinking about a point because I was asking myself a question when we look, I don't know if you followed the evolution of RAM prices. I'm not a computer genius, but for those who know more than me, RAM is a component of your computer that simply allows you to improve your PC's performance. What you need to realize is that the more things you do on your computer, the more RAM your PC needs. It's a bit like memory, and the more gigabytes of RAM you have, the more powerful your PC is. We can see it like that. There are other points to consider like your processor, your graphics card, etc. But for certain tasks you need to do, for example, if you have 15,000 Excel files open, it's especially RAM sticks you need. Right now, with artificial intelligence, you need a lot of RAM, and the price of RAM sticks is increasing because companies like Nvidia are selling more RAM to professionals than to individuals. So, it's quite, well, it's quite crazy. And we are here in a situation where at some point, there will be a bubble in artificial intelligence. For me, it hasn't happened yet. There will be a bubble. However, when will it happen? That's always difficult to say. And when I zoom out and take into account the internet bubble we had, well, you see, the internet bubble starts, when we really see when we enter a bubble, it's really at this level. Before, we are in an upward dynamic, but you see, we have a lateralization phase, breakout, we have retracements. From the moment we have very few retracements and it goes straight up like this, it's really a bubble. And we can be in the same configuration here. If I take, you see this phase, up to this phase, well, it's possible we're doing exactly the same thing. Now, this is in the long term. You see, I took 87, it ended in 2000. Here I am really in the long term, I am on the very long term, and I'm not saying that's what will happen. I'm just making you understand that as long as the market goes up, it goes up, and trying to anticipate the top is useless. It's useless to, for example, we can have something like this. Oh, with here, I don't know, a bubble that can bring us to very high prices for 2030, 2035, etc. We can have a chart here that is similar, here, crack, Covid, phase here of consolidation, and here a continuous rise. For now, we haven't experienced this bubble yet. Okay, because a bubble, we don't have retracement phases or lateralization phases like we've had, it's up only with potentially a retracement in a month, but not 4, 6, 8 months of lateralization. And this AI bubble hasn't happened yet, maybe it will happen in several years, we don't know yet, but I think we will have something similar to the internet bubble of the 2000s. And for cryptocurrencies, that will be bullish. Now, we are really here on the long term, and ideally, on the medium term, you really don't want to exit this lateralization phase downwards, otherwise it will be a market top on the SP500. And of course, we will have to monitor what the SP500 does tonight regarding Poë's announcements. So, I'm taking here, and I'll finish with this, the altcoins that were requested. I had what? I had Unii. Where are we? Uni, it's been a while. Don't hesitate to send me more altcoins you want me to analyze. In the last video, we put quite a few. I have a good list here for at least the next three or four videos. Uh, so on Unii, where are we? Still in this lateralization phase, still at a key level, our low extremity, well, we are close to our low extremity around $4 to $5. It's a good zone to position yourself. In fact, it's simple. As long as we maintain this level, it's pretty good. The $3, the $3.5. If we start closing below this level, it will be a very bearish signal since we would exit this lateralization phase, unless we draw what I just did here, a liquidity grab and re-entry. But you have to monitor that at the time of the close. We have a breakout, and we need to see if there is acceptance or not. If we start to come back and reject, it's dead. It means we have real acceptance. It's to make a lower low. That's a chart that will tend towards zero in the long term. Now, if we start to re-enter quickly, yes, it could be a bullish signal, but for me, I clearly prefer Ave's chart. It's a bit similar to Uni, and I find the project much more solid on my end. Next, you asked me for an analysis of AR. So, where are we? Well, it's, no, it's okay. I was going to say it's not great, but in the end, it's okay. Well, it's not the chart of the year either, but as long as we maintain this level, it's pretty good. You see, we made all-time lows here in wick, but not in closing. You really don't want to settle below this level because it's our big pump that we had and which led to this explosive phase. We did a x10 on Air, approximately. Yes, that's it. A x10. So, well, Air has had its bull market. You can't ignore that. From the moment your altcoin has performed better than BTC. Okay. In 2023, 2024, you can say it has had a bull market. If your altcoin has simply done x2, no, it hasn't had a bull market in my opinion. Now, we are in a good localization zone, but we are still in a bearish dynamic. Here, we see it clearly, an Eliott tunnel that still acts as resistance, and we reject once, twice, three times, four times. Well, we reject here quite a few times. We are still, as I said, in this bearish dynamic, so it's much too early to position ourselves. We can have first setups if we start closing above this level. We have a key level here around $4.40-$4.50 approximately, since we would validate a W structure at this current accumulation zone. We have pumped, we could be at the beginning of something, potentially a daily W in the second low of a potential weekly W. This can give an aggressive setup with an invalidation on closing if we go below this level. Whereas there can be a trade, a trade that can be taken if we start to really accept here and have a breakout of this level with, as I said, an invalidation below, and then we could target the previous highs and rather high levels like $8 in case of a retracement. Otherwise, for the very long term, someone looking to position themselves, I would prefer to wait for a better lateralization phase with here a breakout of our W. And then we're off to the moon. We haven't had a particularly beautiful W. Here, we can see a small one, but they are not the prettiest. I prefer, oh, if we go see one. There you see this type of W, the best ones. Oh, bam, bam, break. We almost pulled back to the cost line. And then we go. Generally, these are the best. When we go like this, it's much more complicated to enter a position. That's what I would wait for. After, from a retracement perspective, we have this major resistance zone here. After, otherwise, we can put Fibo retracements 0.382, 0.5, but that's really for the very long term, and as long as we haven't validated a W structure, it will be talking about retracements. Then, crypto plume, well, it's very ugly. And you see, this is a crypto to avoid, really avoid. Why? Because well, it's a chart that is clearly bearish, a dynamic here that is bearish with lower lows and lower highs. Okay? Moving averages oriented downwards, there's nothing to do. In fact, we lost this level. That's the importance of having invalidations, you know. That is to say, from the moment we go below a level, we don't manage to re-enter. We see it clearly here, we break, okay, here, we have a mini re-entry but we go directly back below. Here, we have acceptance. From this level, we can say "Okay, well, we can't get back above. We have selling pressure. We go back down and you see after, it's lower and lower lows." And if I put short-term moving averages, I wouldn't be surprised to have a 1-hour tunnel here that works well. See, oh, perfectly. At the moment we break, see the 1-hour tunnel, resistance, resistance, resistance, and it still acts as resistance. Well, we try to reach it and break it. If we start to make a new high, there will be a high chance of reaching the 4-hour tunnel. But in any case, long term, this is an ugly chart. There's nothing to do. And it will become interesting potentially when there is a decrease in volatility, a lateralization phase, a breakout, a pullback, something like that. Then it will be interesting. We will make higher highs and we could potentially retrace. It could be here, it could be lower, nobody can know that. From my side, I've said everything. Don't hesitate to join the Discord by clicking on the first link in the description. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.