Transcription
Hi, this is Kri Artech with Wicked Stocks, bringing you an individual stock pick in Home Depot Incorporated, symbol HD, for Home Depot. I did record this on Tuesday, March 11th, 2025. Let's take a look at the basic fundamentals, courtesy of Yahoo Finance. Market capitalization: 365 billion, with average daily trading volume the last 3 months of 3.3 million.
Um, let's move on to the chart. Uh, weekly bar chart, same chart throughout. Um, this goes back some 15 years. I'm going to zoom in to just the last three or four years and show you a rising channel bottom, uh, that includes trade coming off that 23 low, late 23 low. So this is a solid 18-month channel structure, 359.06, rising a buck 18 a week. It does really sort of cover, uh, the rally coming out of, uh, you know, I'll just call it there was the recessionary environment, if you will, where the stock market put out an October '22 low. And you can see following that low area, we were in more of a consolidation pattern for the following year or so before taking off. October of '23, continuing higher. So that move coming off the October '23 low, uh, the momentum of that still remains technically intact, at least by one real clear measure, above 359.06. There's also a more recently descending channel bottom that includes trade from the last 6 months or so at 365.60, that's dropping a buck 64 a week. The two converge over the next 3 weeks or so, um, in the low 360s.
365.60 down to 359.26. This is a solid area to buy into now. Of course, you're buying a weakness. We don't really have a strong case for upward continuation at this point in time. I'll get to that in a moment, but just know that as long as we do not violate this area this week, 359.06, uh, then we can round up to this longer-term channel top at 446.86 a by year's end. I think is a realistic possibility. Uh, we do have, you know, and that's not so much this week. I mean, we could, I suppose, take 383.12 out by the end of the week, but there's just about 3 days left, so it is not likely. Um, but 383.12 will be important next week. Um, it will be either a the high of the low if the low that we're putting out this week is good and untested next week, or it could be the makings of a key reversal low where next week we continue even a little lower, test 359.06 and then proceed by the end of the week to close above 383.12. At this point in time, uh, that is really our upward pivot point as we move into April trade. But you know, for the most part, you're bottom-picking what is now 359.26 to 365.60 in anticipation of, you know, upward rotation over the next, you know, this could be, it could be a year. I don't think it'll be that long. I mean, the last time we saw something like this, we're looking at kind of a May-June low area, and then we've got kind of a September-October high area. That was a six-month move. Six-month move, sure. Uh, obviously, it's not going to happen in a V-shaped way, but we could test 359.26, consolidate, come off of it, uh, and then proceed higher into later year into the 446.86 area. This is a solid return if that were to obviously play out.
Now, for the downside, uh, this is not a good trade. This is a trade you should get out of if you're bottom-picking 359.26, which is the recommended course. Uh, but if we close below 359.06, that would be by a 1% margin. So, you know, closing this week at 358 or 357, it's just too close to call. Uh, it's not a clear violation of that channel bottom, uh, because of its, um, longer-term quality, it's 18 months plus. So we need to close below 359.26, rising a buck 18 a week, by a full 1% margin in the week ahead, uh, for a sell signal to emerge, and it would be a meaningful sell signal. I do think this is the scenario as far as Home Depot's concerned, uh, where we do enter a housing, uh, recession, uh, and I know I'm going out on the limb saying it, but if we close below 359.06, I would expect that 281.10 long-term channel bottom later in the year. That could be a 3 to 5 month move. It could take 6 to n months; it's hard to say. But I would expect 281.10 by the end of the year if we were to settle over the next week or two or three below 359.06. Under that scenario, might reach for 280-290 strike out-of-the-money puts that don't expire. I would go a full year out on that expiration. Until then, as we're testing 359.06, strike out-of-the-money calls that don't expire for a full year out if you're an options trader. That is a sort of a basic, basic, uh, strategy. Uh, but, um, yes, I think that that pretty much covers it. Bottom-picking the upper 350s, mid-360s, they're kind of converging into the low 360s over the next few weeks, anticipating, uh, longer-term bullish continuation still into the 440s and climbing gradually, 446.87, rising 15 cents a week. And inversely, if we close below 359.26 channel support this week, it needs to be by a 1% margin of 355.67 or lower, and we actually enter what I would call a near- to midterm bear market for the Home Depot by the end of the year. 281.10 would be the objective. I think that pretty much covers it. I'm going to leave it at that for this particular Wicked Stocks video analysis on the Home Depot.