Transcription
[applaus] Thank you. Good morning. I'm coming in here looking at Munk, thinking, "Imagine if this was a new rule-based order." What was the inspiration by by these fabulous drawings?
Well, friends, thank you to the Atlantic committee for convening us again. Thank you for this security conference. There is a security conference in Warsaw, in Munich, eh, and we need to connect and communicate and develop thinking in these times when things really are changing.
So, what is the new normal? The new normal is not a fixed, square thing. It is, on the one hand, and on the other hand, it is not complete unpredictability either. So, we have to grasp what is the landscape around us and how are we to deal with it. But there is, as my Canadian colleague with us some days ago in Davos, we live through a rupture. History is also a long row of ruptures. History's only permanent thing is change. It's just that now change comes at the pace which is challenging some fundamental values.
So, some components of that rupture, I think you,uket, you mentioned, alluded to some of them happening. But I would start with the point that we had here on the very day, a few days, years ago, namely the war on Ukraine. The fact that we have a full-scale military war in Europe going on into a new year, this month, with terrible consequences for the people affected, with broad consequences far beyond that region. I met a high representative from the Republic of Korea last week, who just testified to what the war in Ukraine means for security on the Korean Korean peninsula, in terms of what does it really mean when North Korean soldiers fight in Ukraine and what is Russia delivering back to North Korea, just as an illustration.
So, this is, of course, the big challenge. Norway is neighboring Russia. So, our neighbor is waging a full-scale war on another neighbor. Of course, it has profound implications for the whole outlook.
Then there is the United States, as you are saying, Kate, who is weaponizing, eh, economic policy. But also the big major economic powers are in that real. They are using value chains as strong means of promoting their own interests. Be it China doing it with large subsidies, pushing industries not only to promote their goods but also to penetrate markets and sometimes destabilize them. And the fact that we have experienced from a lead ally the reintroduction of tariffs, which runs counter to what we have experienced since 19 late 40s of tariffs being built down.
So, one thing is building tariffs up as a means of rebalancing trade. I think most economists will, you know, in the big scheme, that really works. But what we experienced two weeks ago when the US used tariffs against allies as a political means to force through the perspective on Greenland, which in itself wanting to grab land from another land inside an alliance, illustrates how this is changing. Ordering completely as some kind of, you know, back to the rebels. And there are good reasons that part of that world order should change, I would say. If you come from the South, how can you really explain that you have a UN Security Council composed of the members who came victorious out of the Second World War? If you are India, the world's most populous country, and that that is West with our values focused on the fact that needs to be changed. And I share the view of my Finnish, the president of Finland, who says that, you know, in the perspective of value-based pragmatism, we in the West have to listen to the South and the legitimate concerns. Be it on trade, be it on influence, be it on participation. And this is our moment. We have to be much more attentive to this, I believe.
So, where is Norway in in this shifting environment? Of course, there is a long story to be told. But for me, and I can use this expression of being value-based pragmatist, have to protect the values that we really cherish about democracy and freedom and human rights and rules where they apply. And they apply in many contexts. This Director General of the World Trade Organization was here in Oslo three weeks ago, saying that 80% of world trade happens inside the rules of the WTO. And right now, my ambassador to WTO, together with his colleague from Singapore, a leading process inside WTO to adapt rules to reflect a world which is looking differently from what it was 5, 10, 15, 20 years ago. We have to be part of that.
But coming to Norway, there is one thing that does not change, and that is geography. And for me, geography is a good point of departure to define what are our interests. What is our vulnerability? What is our opportunity? And the fact that Norway has the world's second largest coastline matters. The fact that we have seven times more economic zone and seabed than land matters. The fact that we provide 1/3 of Europe's gas and almost 40% of UK gas, important part of Polish independence on gas, matters. The fact that we are critical raw materials that are important to the value chains which are now have to be defended against the attacks from states matters. The fact that we are developing space activities from the northern part of Norway because we are up north matters. And I really appreciate that the high representative, Kos, my friend, is going up to Tromsø today to take part in Arctic Frontiers, that is really valued.
So, how do we respond to this world changing? Two points. First of all, we have to deepen and anchor our European participation. And friends, this is not going to be an open door to the big questions and menu ponder on membership. It's not the issue today. The issue today is to take as a point of departure where we stand, what we have, which is really a rule-based trade in Europe. We have 80% of our trade going to Europe and the United Kingdom. And this is, of course, strategically critically important in these times where the value chains are so important to protect independence. So, I want to safeguard the European Economic Area. I want to expand the perspective of that cooperation by also including these new strategic areas which really are not primarily about rules and directives, because the directives, you know how that works in the EEA, we we take the bulk of them. But it is about identifying what economic security means in our times. What does it mean and how does it affect our value chains? And how will we cooperate with Europe to be part of the European, what shall I say, defense and promotion of its independence when we are being challenged by these powers who now without scruples use their power to keep Europe down. Europe will always be a mix of 27, 30, 35, you choose. And that is, of course, I would say, an immense dimensional why I love Europe because it is diversity. But it is, of course, also fragility and some certain weakness because you stand up against these major powers' challenge. Norway has to be part of this. That is why we have concluded strategic partnership on security last year. That's why our military industry is participating in the programs being developed by Europe. Because historically, we find out that our military industry has historic reasons why it, why they are composed as they are. But they matter to Europe's security. They matter to Ukraine. They matter to the protection of Ukrainian cities as we speak, because air defense happens to be something we are good at, and so on. So, my first reply here is, is really that strategic anchor in Europe that we have to spend time on and that I will really focus on in what lies ahead for us.
But then secondly, if we focus on pragmatism and geography, I think there is an enduring US dimension to our security which we have to analyze and understand. And some of you heard me say this before, but I'll mention it again because I think it is reality. That you alluded to, Kate, when I met President Trump first time, I said this to him, looked him in his eyes and said, "It's important for a Norwegian prime minister to see a US president in the, say, 100 kilometers from my border is the world's largest nuclear arsenal, and it is not directed against me, Mr. President, but against you." And it makes a difference that we monitor those submarines. We know when they leave port, we know when they test their new weapon systems, and we share it with you, and we collaborate on on monitoring that. And that is why I just have to say, it rings completely false when the American president stands in D saying that we have given everything to NATO and NATO gives nothing in return. It is wrong. It is plain wrong. And I think a big part of the US knows that because it matters every day, every hour. The collective security is not a charity, it is made out of self.
So, for Norway, security on this hard geographic reality, the following matters. We will strengthen our own defense, which means that in the coming years, we will have to explain to many sectors of Norwegian society, there will be less more in your area because there has to be more on strengthening our defense, rebuilding our naval defense, and most sectors of our defense. That is a collective domestic security obligation. Secondly, we will rely on allies and alliances and alliance. So, the NATO alliance, which I think is in really good focus shape on the North. We have really modernized the regional plans, 4,000 pages that brought to the table of leaders in Washington and the Hague. Eh, all five Nordic countries, members of NATO, all five under the command in Norfolk. Eh, we know how to do the collective collaboration on defense in the North. A month from now, we will have 25,000 troops exercising in northern Norway, northern Finland. And the two largest delegations there, I saw, was the French and the US, 4 to 5,000 troops each. And again, this is not charity. But will preserve that will that willners.