Transcription
How are you?
I am good. How are you?
Good. You've had a busy day, I presume.
Yeah, actually I think it was busy, but it doesn't feel busy.
What's What's been your most Have you had a controversial interview?
Uh, let me just check. I don't think so. Today was relatively Nothing that will get you upset today. Let me just check. No, nothing that will get you upset. It was a relatively uh relatively chill one in terms of uh [snorts] the input from the guests. No one was optimistic. No one said the US could invade Iran and succeed and capture Thran. So nothing that will get you upset. Everything was uh
Well, I don't get pragmatic today.
I'm just questioning the judgment of people that say such things.
Trump said Mushtabakame is gay. Oh, there's Yeah, there's an insult. Let's Let's Let's go homophob [laughter] Let's go homophobic. That's a good look, Don.
Um particular particularly when there's so many uh closeted gays in the Republican party.
You know, the Republican party. Are they going to say the Republic of Iran?
You saw what Hunter Biden said. He said the Republican part, he said yesterday, Republican party is controlled by a bunch of closeted gays and [laughter] the and the queen the queen of them was Lindsey Graham.
I swear Hunter Biden's comeback is epic. I never expected that. That was that's been one hell of a comeback.
Well, you know, we wanted to get upset his his corruption. He He's a damn per compared to the Trump clan. Good lord.
It's wild. Yeah, it was that a Ukrainian company. I don't know the details of it, but it's incomparable to what we're seeing now that you saw we I don't know if we I think we talked about it how uh Truth Social wants to charge a fee like $100,000 to get early access to posts a few minutes before everybody else. Did you see that?
Yeah. Yeah. It's like, you know, hey, if he can get away with it, if someone's stupid with that much money is stupid enough to do it, okay, go for it, guys. You know what is the expression? A fool and his money shall soon be parted. Never heard of it. Um, but soon you'll have like pay a million dollars and get Trump's uh phone number or something. Not not a million, $10 million get Trump's phone number.
Well, as they as they said at the as they said at the White House Correspondents Association dinner,
Who in Washington DC doesn't have Trump's number?
Yeah, true, true, true. That's a good one. Um, [snorts] oh, by the way, before we start, um, you saw the, um, you saw the correspondence in it last night, I assume, the jokes that Trump made.
Did you watch it?
His attempt his attempt to make jokes. I haven't had time to watch them. I saw I saw clips before I went to bed. I thought, you know how some people clip parts of Trump and they write something that he didn't really say or fabricate it
Or kind of take it out of context
And I kind of dismissed them. They just like the Nicki Minaj one
Uh I can't remember what something about down when he was when he was when he was shot in the ear. Get down. Get down. He's like Nicki Minaj will get down and twerk or something like that.
It was like it was like a bad Dan Akroy joke. from Saturday Night Live. I mean, just where they were they'd be making fun of that. No, it's uh I think Robert Barnes had a good conversation earlier today
Where he laid out
How Trump used to actually be pretty funny. You know, go back to 2016, some of the roasts he did. Uh he would he would actually write his own material. Now, uh, particularly when he made the the old guy joke about senators, you know, not able to climb stairs, have sex or
Yeah. Let's have Let's have some Viagra jokes.
You're talking about my conversation with Barnes or he did a separate one.
Was that yours today? I think so. Yeah.
Yeah. Yeah. We spoke about it today. I thought maybe you referring to another one. He he went cuz he's the one that told me about he brought up the topic. That's why I'm bringing it up with you. I didn't know about it beforehand of the bad jokes. And then we I know about his good roasts in the past. Those I know him and Hillary and all that. He was good at that.
Um, but yeah, he was making that comparison. And Robert does think that Trump has he's mentally not there. He's got um uh frontal lobe frontal loal uh dementia.
Frontal lobe dementia. Frontal lobe. There we go. Yeah. I I I [snorts] think I think Robert's correct. I know other people say, "Oh, no, he's fine." Trump's not fine. Uh, you know, his what distinguishes frontal lobe dementia from the the dementia affecting Joe Biden is um, you know, but Trump still has memory, but he has no filter. You know, it takes away the filter and he'll say whatever. It's almost, you know, he just says whatever comes into his mind at the time without that social filter saying, "Ah, this name might this may not be the right thing to say or, you know."
Yeah. No, I definitely see that. I don't think it's I'm not as concerned as Robert is in this, but his age is definitely showing. The guy is 80. For an 80year-old, he's doing pretty damn well. Like, I've seen people that are 80 that are completely out of it. How old was Biden? Was he much older than Trump?
I I disagree. You compare You compare Donald Trump's mental acuity to like Ray McGovern's. Ray's 87. Troly [ __ ] 87.
Yeah. Or compare
Or to Chaz Freeman,
You know. So there's two examples.
Ray is incredible. 86 years old.
87.
80. Sorry. 87 years old. That's wild.
Yeah. He had he actually he did his sort of farewell appearance on Judge Npalitano's show yesterday. So he's he's he's sort of he's retiring. He's backing out. Uh so Joe Kent is going to replace him. So Joe and I will be the regular Friday Intel T round table going forward. Ray may come back occasionally to make an appearance, but he said he's 87, his wife's ill, you know, he wanted wanted to be able to focus on some other. He's actually sort of retiring now. I figure, okay, 87. I was calling him, hey, you quitter. [laughter]
He's earned it at 87, but that is in He's such a nice person as well. Such a nice person. And you know, but his, like I said, if Trump had the mental acuity of Ray McGovern, I wouldn't be concerned, but Trump doesn't. [snorts]
All right. Well, um, let's go into today's news. Uh, it started off a pretty quiet day and then it lit up, um, about a couple of hours ago. Um, so let's talk about the latest developments. You can play that video, Stephanie. So, we know about the Houthis. The Houthis bombed Saudi Saudi retail all started with Saudi the Saudi blockade. Saudi blockaded the plane landing in Yemen. Before you play the video, I'll just give an overview Stephanie and then prep the video to play it. So the Saudis blockaded Yemen, the Houthi controlled side of Yemen for that blockade has existed for over a decade and then the Houthis retaliated by attacking Saudi. It was a limited attack the first one and the Saudis retaliated.
They had two they hit two airfields I think.
No. Yeah, exactly. That's the first attack. Yeah. And then the Saudis retaliated by striking the port and it went quiet. We all assumed that
Well, in between in in between that though then the Houthis announced the blockade on Saudi vessels carrying oil.
That happened that happened right after. That happened right after.
No, that that happened before the attack on Ha. That happened.
Oh, okay. Okay.
It happened the day before or the day after
I'll correct it. It went quiet for a few days and we thought, okay, the Saudi backed off. Remember, for a few days, we thought the Saudis backed off and then the the blockade. So, what I think the Houthies are doing is using the Iranian strategy that worked against the the almighty United States of America. Hormuz forcing Trump to fold. The Houthies are like, "Oh, we could do the same thing with Beel Mand straight. Let's blockade Saudi and force them to remove that blockade over us that's existed for over a decade." They blockaded Saudi. Saudi retaliated by striking their port, which gets struck all the time. And then the Houthis attacked ships, Saudi ships. Saudi bombed them again. I don't know if I got the chronology correct. And then the Houthis just went gloves off and bombed the um
Aramco facility.
They bombed two of them, didn't they? One in Jizan and in Yan. And they they targeted Yanu. I don't think it struck
Yanbu. Remember Yanbu? There was initial reports of explosions but no confirmation.
Maybe I think it was interceptions maybe.
Yeah. But the Genza or you know however they pronounce it is uh you know it it is the most modern oil refinering refinery in the world. And so the uh Houthies have now taken it offline for at least four months. Significant. And now, you know, if the ball is in the Saudis court, are they going to continue to try to escalate this and, you know, go back and strike Heda again and actually try to hurt, you know, damage port facilities in uh in Yemen and the Houthi controlled territory? Well, if they do, man, they they are, you know, dumb as a rock because the Houthi's next step, they will take out Yanbu. And at Yanbu, you got two refineries or two oil terminals, one's north and one south. And you take out those terminals, that takes another, you know, four and a half, 5 million barrels of oil a day off the world market and really endangers Saudis cash flow. So, so far today they they appear to have recognized that, you know, they can they can bomb things in Houthy land and it there's nothing that the Houthies are not sitting on worldass sophisticated infrastructure. You know, they'll say, "We're going to bomb you back to the 15th century." And they go, "Okay, well, we're living in the 14th century, so we'll take that as an advance." Um, so you you know that that Saudi threat doesn't carry a lot of weight. Whereas for the Houthis when they say we're going to take you from the 21st century back to the 18th century, the the Saudis better damn well pay attention. Now what's interesting in this is Pakistan stand the hell out of this. They're they're not getting in the middle.
Yeah. Yeah. And it got ugly today. Um just for the audience um to understand um why the Babel Mandibra is so important. So about 20% of global oil flows through the straight of Homos and about 5% flows through the Babel Mandibra and that impacts Saudi the most. And Saudi in a way out of the Gulf it benefit the mo benefited the most from the Homus closure because they just got their oil out of the Babel Mandep strait through the East West pipeline the Yamboo pipeline that you just referencing. So everyone was watching the Houthies throughout the world. Will the Houthies join? Will they close the Babel Mendip straight? That was like a big wild card that the Iranians have and they haven't used it. Um well now it has been partially used against the Saudis which impacts the global energy market. And it got a lot worse today because uh today for the first time in a while, I don't know how long exactly, the um the war restarted by the looks of it between the Saudibacked group and the Houthis, the uh the Saudibacked Alju tribal fighters. Um they started marching towards the Houthi controlled area. They've just arrived to the to to that uh to that line, separation line. And you can play the footage now, Stephanie, to show that came in less than an hour ago. This footage, you can play it, STEPHANIE. YEAH, we can remove it. You can hear the you hear the bullets getting close to singing by the table.
Yeah. Yeah. It's crazy. Um so that started which is uh
It's just sad because Yemen has been through so much. So uh it's just sad to see. Um and all eyes are on on uh Yemen now to see if that escalates because that hurts the global economy obviously through the be mend straits through the Saudi oil infrastructure as well as we've talked before and you could explain probably better than I how much damage the Houthis can cause the Saudis if this continues to escalate. So, uh, worrying developments on that front.
No, it's well, again, it the the Saudis with the Houthis are in the same position the United States is with Iran. Uh, if they try to escalate, the the Saudis get hurt worse than the Houthis. If the United States tries to escalate, the US gets hurt worse than Iran. And that appears to have, you know, that message appears to have gotten through to Donald Trump, which uh you we've not seen the renewal of attacks yesterday. It doesn't look like it's going to happen today. Um, yeah, no reports of it. There were explosions in Bander Rabas, but uh is not confirmed. That was about an hour ago, less about Yeah, about 45 minutes ago, but it's um not confirmed strikes and American officials said that was not them according to they spoke to Axios. So, there's no strikes tonight by the looks of it. Still early. We'll see. It should start in the next hour or two if there are strikes. If there's no strikes in the next by the time we finish this interview, the likelihood of strikes tonight drops significantly. And the likelihood of strikes at all this weekend drops. So, we'll have to wait till next weekend till when the markets close most likely. Um, we'll move to the next story. I don't know if you know much about this one. The Iranians, sorry, the Ukrainians struck an Iranian cargo ship. They're going through uh I don't know if it was an oil tanker or not going through to Russia in the Caspian Sea, killing one sailor.
An Iranian.
Oh, you didn't see that? Yeah.
Yeah. Yeah. Well,
Yeah. So that's uh it's it's what part of the shadow fleet.
What's what's the news report on that?
Who's the source?
Uh it's been confirmed. Um the Iranians also uh um the the the Iran according to Iran's foreign ministry has summoned Ukraine's shed a tan over what it claims was a Ukrainian attack on an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea yesterday. Iranian officials lodged a formal protest describing the incident as a hostile and criminal act. That surprises you?
No, not necessarily. I mean,
The Iranian foreign ministry condemned what it said was a Ukrainian I've got a statement quickly if you like. Um was a Ukrainian attack on an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea, saying an explosion killed one crew member and injured another. The ministry said the attack violated international law and the UN charter, accusing Ukraine of carrying out a criminal and provocative act. called the UN assembly, the UN Security Council, the UN Secretary General, blah blah blah blah blah blah to hold Ukraine accountable. Ukraine has not commented on Iran's allegations.
Yeah. Well, well, you know, all it does is sour relationships with with Iran, but you know, Ukraine is firmly in the Israeli camp anyway, which again is so so bizarre because Israel claims to be, well, man, we're against those Nazis in the Holocaust. That's awful. And yet here they are embracing neo-Nazis. Makes you think maybe the Holocaust wasn't that important after all. I mean, honestly, if if that's your priority, if that's we're we're here because of the Holocaust, okay, great. And yet you align yourself with Nazis. Sorry. You lose your credibility at that point. That's like saying, "I'm against pedophilia, but I'm signing up with my pedophilia buddies here, and we're going to we're going to cooperate on a business pro project." Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. You know, standards are standards. Principles are principles.
Which members of the Ukrainian um which members of the Ukrainian government or military are part of the uh I know there's the Azovv battalion? I'm not an expert in this.
No, no, there's the Azovv battalion had members that were supportive from last
The new the new head of the army is fully in but um so but you know apart from that uh you've also got um you know cerski not cerski u zusni zullni is very deep into the whole bera culture this is you know the you go you go back to the neo-Nazi roots of this whole movement that is backing Zalinski. I mean, it's dark. And I mean, the the irony is, you know, they they tried him out convenis because we got a Jew president. Yeah. Okay. The Bandaraa guy is a Steven Bandera, a radical 20th century Ukrainian nationalist leader. And the Bandaraa movement refers to his militant faction of the organization of Ukrainian nationalists and the armed wing, the Ukrainian insurgent army back in the early 1900s.
He joined who joined who joined with the Nazis. They created an SS unit.
This faction declared Ukraine independence hoping for Nazi backing. When Germany refused, the Nazis imprisoned him in the Saches Chuen concentration camp until 1944. After World War II, he lived in exile in Munich until a KGB agent assassinated him with poison in 1959.
Yeah. Go back go back and ask the ask the polls about Bandera and the Vol and the Volen massacre.
You know, that was embodying the same Nazi principle. You exterminate women, children. It wasn't. It was It's one thing to go kill combatants, but that's they they rounded up and were they they were they literally hung children with barb wire from poles. Okay. The photographs are I mean, there's historical evidence of this. It's not an exaggeration. And that's that's who this these modern Ukrainians celebrate. You know, this wasn't George Washington. Trust me. I don't know. I um I'd like to think the like this is a fringe part of the Ukrainian government. That's what I'd like to think.
Don't Don't think Don't think that. That's ridiculous. It's not a fringe. It's the heart and soul of it. Why do you think they've been renaming streets after the [ __ ]
Panda?
Yes. Then they just went and reeried another SS guy. No, look, this is this is the this is the dark side of this western Ukrainian population. They've got uh I can I'll I'll send you a link to the uh the video of uh this uh the the son of vaner vanal voner I guess is his name. He was the he was the Nazi gallletter. He was the Nazi in charge of Ukraine. His counterpart in Poland, Hans Franc was the one that set up all the death camps, you know, Kelno, Treblinka, Soibbor, Maidan, Ashwitz. Uh but uh Van Wter didn't do that, but he was responsible for, you know, mass murders and um yeah, it was, you know, they went through it to In Ukraine, they were exterminating Jews right and left. That's what I mean. This is, you know, for for modern Israel, who, you know, makes the Holocaust remembrance the heart and soul of their existence to align themselves with people like this is sickening. It's disgusting. [snorts]
Yeah. Um, on the Houthi front, by the way, we just got a report now. Saudi fighter jets were reported above the Aljaf governor. So we might see the Saudis get involved in the clashes right now. There hasn't been any strikes at all, but this just happened. This just came in 10 minutes ago. So as we're having our conversation,
Things are escalating in Yemen.
Saudi got a flat learning curve. Good lord. [snorts] You know, you think, okay, guys, you're going to you're going to it's the FAFO moment. Uh they're going to lose Yamu next. They lose Jean Buu, then what do they do? I mean, it's, you know, they in and trading tit for tat. Uh, you there's not a lot of tats to destroy in in Houthy land. Okay. They don't have great infrastructure, but what they do have damn sophisticated missiles, mobile launchers that are virtually impossible to defeat and and destroy. Whereas Sa Saudi's got all sorts of infrastructure. Take out the oil oil terminals, blow up the pipeline. Um I'm not sure if there are any other major refineries in Saudi Arabia. I'm sure there are. And you know the Houthi Houthies will just you know bleed them dry.
Yeah. Yeah. The Saudis are in a very tricky position. They understand the importance of be mend straight. So they have two paths. One is to try to defeat the Houthis militarily, which you've just explained how why that's a really bad idea. But the other one is just to make peace with the Houthis, but that would make the Houthies stronger. And long term, the Houthies know they've got, you know, their hand around Saudis neck and they can close the Babel Mendip straight any time. So, it's a very tricky position for the Saudis.
But you might there's only
The only reason the Yemenes want to do that is because of the aggression of Saudi Arabia. You know, this all started with the civil war in Yemen that I guarantee you the West was a major player in getting that jenned up in part because they saw that the um that the Houthis were aligned with Iran and this is a way to try to hurt Iran. Yeah. This is, you know, you can't you can't separate that out.
Yeah. Look, I I feel my heart goes out to the Yemeni people. They've just suffered so much. one of the countries suffering the most right now when it comes to poverty. Probably the country the poorest country in the Middle East I think is Yemen. It's just that bad in that country.
Yeah. Yeah.
It's sad.
They've been they've been they've been victimized. That's for sure.
What do you make of uh Trump calling out calling off the strikes yesterday? So, AX just reported that he ordered the military not to carry out strikes. Um it remains unclear whether that represents a one-day pause or the start of a broader halt in military operations. The US military continues to prepare contingency plans for a possible return to major combat operations, but Trump has not authorized further strikes. And then they mentioned the Omani negotiations. The pause comes as Oman held talks in Thran on reopening Hormuz. Two regional sources familiar with the negotiations said the talks have made progress and that Oman and Iran could reach an agreement over the weekend. Any proposed deal would ultimately require Trump's approval. So, do you think he put So, there's there's three theories that I've got.
Wait, wait, wait. Any deal would require Trump's approval? Horseshit.
They were going to make an agreement regard regardless of whether Trump likes it or not.
Larry, you can't question Axio. Larry, you can't question Axio, Larry.
Yeah, I can. There's not a damn thing Trump can do to open the straighter for moves. We've made that point pretty clear. And that's
Barack Rav disagrees, Larry. We can't disagree.
Well, I know he's got to he's got to follow his MSAD handlers, but you know this is um you know I thought B you know we had all the indicators embassies French German uh Brits closing their embassies.
The Germans the Germans denied it. The Germans denied it today this morning.
They denied that they closed. Okay. So they haven't closed. All right. The story yesterday was they closed but okay.
Yeah. I said it to you. They said today they didn't.
And uh then on top of that, you had flights being cancelled. So it looked like the United States was going to do it. I fully expected it on Friday. I forgot to factor in the White House Correspondents Association dinner. So Trump didn't want to have he didn't want to have a distraction while that's going on. You know, he had to be the star of the show. Okay. So yesterday after 13 days, we had 14 days nothing. Now today um again I thought uh that you know with all those other indicators and we talked about the arrival of the PH yesterday the Boseidons aircraft which conduct ISR that said that's an indicator that we're going to do something but then today I got I got information. So there you got central command and under central command they have what's called Africa uh absent. So it's basically the air force central part of central command. Uh ASET used to be based in aluded and and what was called the combined air operations center and we've talked about that before. So about a month, two months ago, 3 months ago, they closed down the kayak, the combined air operations center. AFSET moved its headquarters to Shaw Air Force Base in South Carolina. Now, if they're going to conduct major error operations, strikes, Sentcom's going to be issuing orders, and there's going to be coordination going back and forth uh between the ASENT and Sentcom. Uh what I learned today was that communication is not happening. The folks at Sentcom are doing their thing. the folks at the folks at the chaok absent are doing their thing and there's no there is no coordinated effort now that's either completely screwed up planning or there really is nothing serious in the works right now and uh you know Trump may be waiting through the weekend uh for because he's made he's made three attempts to get the negotiation started. First he went to Qataris and said, "Hey, you know, go go see the Iranians." Iran said, "No." Okay. Then he went to the PS, the Pakistanis, uh, Islamabad. Islamabad took a run at, hey, you know, they said no. Then uh Trump hosted the Iraqi prime minister. This is Azizi or Aziz uh the other day and sent him hey go talk to the Iranians for us. Tell them we'd like to kiss and make up. And the Iranians said screw you. We're not doing that. So Trump's like okay what do we do now? So that's that's where things stand. And then [clears throat] uh you saw the strong endorsement that China gave Iran at the at this at the Shanghai cooperation uh organization meeting last week or you didn't see that?
No.
Yeah. Go look up look up just do a search. What did Wong Yei say uh about Iran during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization? the SECO meeting, he was very firmly upholding Iran's right to do what it's doing. So, the Chinese weigh in firmly on the side of of Iran. Um, Wangi reiterated China's strong support for Iran, saying China supports Iran and safeguarding its sovereign security and national dignity. He urged an early resumption of negotiation negotiations and a return to the previously agreedou aimed at reducing tensions. He said theou reflected the desire of Iran and the people of the Middle East for peace and stability and should not be abandoned. The most quoted line was quote, "China supports Iran in safeguarding its sovereignty, security, and its national dignity." That's the statement I think you're referring to.
Yes. So you know clearly China is not selling out Iran. Now look the situation for China it's complex you know on the one hand the a lot larger portion of their economy is dependent upon exports to the global south but the global south is hurting right now because of the closure of the straight of hormuz and the oil shortage but at the same time China is partners with Iran and bricks and Iran is supplying China with oil. The only one who's blockading that is the United States, not Iran,
The United States. Uh and so, uh in fact, what we've seen China do, it's hardened its position in the last week, closing out all rare earth minerals to Europe as well as the United States. Um there's three theories from the people I spoke to about this um on why Trump didn't strike today. uh didn't strike yesterday and possibly not striking today. The third the first one is uh the theory you mentioned is what Robert Barnes told me. One I didn't even think of and I don't agree with it. But he said that the correspondence dinner that Trump didn't want attention to him at the correspondence dinner. So that's what Robert Barnes mentioned to me on the morning as well. The second one is one I didn't think of either.
So So wait, you disagreed with that? Why?
I think it's most likely because of the negotiations. He's trying to get an out with the Omanis. He's trying to get an offramp. That's my speculation. Otherwise, we would have seen we would have seen strikes maybe even during the dinner or even tonight or tomorrow. Um, but I I have a feeling it's because of the negotiations. The only one that would adds up the most.
You car you carry out those strikes during the dinner and one of they get a B1 plane, B-52, B2 bomber shot down.
People forget the damn dinner. All they remind they're reminded of is that Trump's now got a US pilots captive.
You also said a lot of indicators are showing that the uh the strikes might not happen even tonight.
Yeah. Correct.
Yeah. So that's why there could be another reason. just it's again you've got we go back to the the military bureaucracy the planning process what takes place like in central command at the at the operation center what they call the CAT and then you've got a similar you got a CAT functioning at the uh the combined air operations center at Shaw and so normally those those two would be you know if you're planning an air strike etc the AF the air force component is the one that carries it out. They'd be getting the commands, the orders, etc. Their responsibility is to organize, identify the the aircraft that are going to be carrying out the mission, make sure that they've got the air refuelers up. You know, it's pretty complex. And I'm just telling you that I was told the guys guys running the chaos said, "We don't know what the hell they're doing at Sentcom." Okay. So whatever's if there's something a foot that the the guys that should be implementing it haven't been told.
Uh I've got a I've got a story for you. I'll read it. I just came in now from New York Times relevant to our discussion. I'll just give you the other two explanations quickly. The second one, um, it's a military one, is that those aircraft, if you if you're preparing when you when as soon as that person saw the strikes not happen yesterday, it's like, oh [ __ ] brace yourself because when you're planning a major strike, you'd want the aircraft to kind of take a day or two off to prepare for the major strike where you need all of them active at the same time. And he explained the military reasons why that would be. So that's the second scenario is preparation for the major strike. And third scenario is the one I mentioned, the negotiations one, the Omani negotiations. Now, New York Times just put out a piece. The title is Trump holds off on major escalations against Iran as advisers raise concerns. So, it just came in now. I'll read it out. Trump has for now shelf plans to significantly escalate US military operations against Iran with concerns that a broader conflict could rapidly deplete deplete finally deplete already strained stocks of Patriot missile interceptors and other air defense munitions in the Middle East. According to the New York Times, citing Trump administration officials, officials said dwindling interceptor infventories are among several factors weighing against renewed major combat operations. The administration is also concerned that the risk of a wider regional war, Iranian attacks on Gulf allies, and broader economic, energy, and refugee consequences. Few members of Trump's inner circle support escalation support escalating the conflict. One senior US official said there are doubts that renewed strikes would pressure Iran back to negotiations, arguing they instead strengthen internal unity in Iran by shifting attention towards an existential or an external sorry an external threat. So the report says that Trump seems to have called off the escalation the strikes because of concerns on the depleted munitions things that we've been discussing for so many weeks and months now. depleted munitions, uh the economic impact, uh the refugees, the consequences when it comes to refugees, the impact on key allies when the Iranians strike the Gulf, and the impact on the energy market as well.
Gee, who's been saying that for the last week or so?
Well, that would be me.
Yeah. And not just me. I mean, you know, Chris has been saying it as well. you know, a few others. But, you know, it's just, you know, I I think uh and I just as we're as we're talking, I just got a report. Uh so, let me see. Uh let me
I've got another one here while you Okay. Well, you have it already.
Yeah. It's titled The American Diesel and Jet Fuel Shell Game. how unreconciled military draws, Roderdam trans shshipment and Middle East war operations are draining US diesel and jet fuel resilience. And so the government's pulling critical fuel out of depleted domestic systems, moving it through opaque military and overseas channels, leaving the American economy with the shortage risk. So
Yeah.
That's another reason
I I think that's another they're starting to wake up said, "Okay, uh this is gonna this could really really create some economic harm uh domestically and uh let's uh we're going to have to scale back."
Yeah. And uh so chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, General Dan Kaine has privately cautioned the Trump administration that resuming major combat operations against Iran is doable, but that it would dangerously deplete interceptors available to Sentcom, according to New York Times. So it seems it's finally getting to him. We've been talking about the the bubble he's um he's in that prevents that information from getting to him. It's finally seemingly getting to him. So now just to be clear this could
He's not insane completely you know there's still there's still some measure of rationality and reason there.
Yeah because the interceptor depleted the depleted interceptors is um is so freaking concerning like they just such low
Mario they're they're making claims that they've got like a thousand left. I guarantee you it's probably fewer than 200. So that's um that's a big piece of development as this is one story from the New York Times. Both these are from the same story from the New York Times. But I um I I think that that story does um you know I'd give it some credibility. It's just what I've um it just makes sense. It just makes sense. Well, particularly what uh you know, General Kaine um from, you know, people I know that have worked with him, they they say he he he's he he's uh he is a dec he's he's he's a good man. He's not uh you know, he may be doing some bad things, but he is at heart a good man. and uh he he understands that he can't, you know, his job is to be an adviser to Trump. He doesn't command Donald Trump. He doesn't issue orders that override Donald Trump. Again, statutoily, he is Trump's designated military adviser. And so he's learning that art of how to provide advice without making Trump feel threatened and also making sure he has the information. So if he goes ahead and does something stupid. He can't say well nobody told me Kane's making sure that hey you do this these are the consequences. I'm not saying you can't do it and I'm not saying it might not work. I'm just telling you these are the consequences you got to plan for. Well, uh, the old Donald Trump, according to Robert Barnes, would have gone, "Yeah, we don't want to do that." Yeah. I, um, I think it was Anthony Aguilar that interacted with, uh, General Dan Kaine and he was, um, telling me his way of being able to speak to, uh, to Trump, and I've heard this from others as well, is that he doesn't order him around. He gives him various options, and that is his job. His job is not to order him around. It seems Trump does listen to him.
He He's an adviser. That's But he's statutoily designated. I mean, it's under law. It's under law.
Now, it's very um it's very possible, just to be clear, that this is all, you know, leaked intentionally to divert the Iranians, give them a a false sense of security. I don't think that, as you know, my position has been the same for a while, but to give them a false sense of security because meanwhile, Khan News reported that that's Israeli news. The US continues moving forces and equipment into Israel, including dozens of additional aerial refueling aircraft, fighter jets, and air defense interceptors and munitions. Around 90 US aerial refueling aircraft have arrived at the Bengurian airport, Rammon air base and of the air base. A deployment resembling preparations ahead of operations roaring lion indicating Washington remains prepared for a significant strike.
Now let me let me before you go on reading, let me ask you a question.
Do you think if the United States launches a massive strike like that, it will lower the price of oil or raise the price of oil?
Oh, lower. Make it make oil so much cheaper. It'll be a bargain. Cuz you know why? You know why?
Yeah, that's I'm I'm enthralled.
Trump will obliterate Iran's ability to control the straight of Hum. ships will just flow through.
You know, you do sarcasm pretty well.
Yeah, I know. Sometimes Yeah. Sometimes you actually say I say something and then you end up believing it. You're like, "What? What? What did you just say?" So, I like when that happens. Um so so the Iran New York Times put out another story this morning saying Iran has prepared for a possible attack in recent months by strengthening fortifications and creating obstacles and explosive traps around some of its nuclear facilities which makes the execution of any ground operation highly risky. True. We haven't spoken much about this in a while. The fact that the Iran will probably booby trap the [ __ ] out of these nuclear facilities. So already a ground operation without these traps is mission impossible. But then you add all these different traps in there and it becomes a suicide mission even further. Um so that's probably another reason why or another another point on the list of reasons on why Trump will probably taco again. Um I mean know Trump did say in this morning that he told LCI that he would quote absolutely consider resuming a full-scale war against Iran if we don't get 100% of what we want. Pretty meaningless statement but I think it's worth mentioning.
Did he define what it is they want?
Um,
No, he didn't.
Yeah, he's making [ __ ] up on what he wants and then he'll make [ __ ] up on what he got. But I think what he really wants is, as we've discussed, just the straight home was Iran not controlling the straight homes. But I don't One of my
No, he's not going to get that. But go ahead. I'm sorry to interrupt. One of my guests, one of my guests mentioned today or yesterday, um I don't remember who it was, but he they were in the belief that Trump will find some sort of creative way. Sorry. Yeah. Trump and the Iranians, they'll find some sort of creative way that will appease both sides. It will maintain Iran. It will allow Iran to charge a fee of the trade of hummus, but not make it look like Iran fully controls the traum. So Trump has the ability to walk away and Iran get what they want and I I do believe that I think and we've seen indications of that early on the Iranians started slowly early in the negotiations right after the MOU or even before the MOU the Iranians already started pivoting from fee and controlling the shadows to we'll be managing and coordinating and we'll have an environmental environmental fee.
No they didn't. Yeah, the rhetoric, remember when they mentioned um Ismael Beai or something talked about having some sort of environmental fee? The rhetoric eased up a bit.
Look, look, they changed it from we're not charging a toll to we're charging an environmental fee.
Yeah, exactly.
They're charging a toll. Okay.
Just because they changed the name of
That's right. That's why they'll get what they want. But they're giving him they they allow him slightly to save face. I hope they do because if they don't then we're pretty screwed because if he wants to walk away if he asks them look guys take whatever you want just make it look like you didn't get everything that you want and all you want is you to do say all right we'll make it seem we didn't get everything we want but give us everything we want
The the straight of Hormuz after the signing of theou was open but it was open in accordance with the terms that Iran established under the Persian Gulf Strait Authority. The one who violated that continued trying to test the limits was the United States. And Iran kept saying no ships that want to pass through the Persian Gulf through the straight of Hormuz fill out the application. You know, we've gone over had to put down the name of the ship, name of the captain, name of the owner of the ship, the destination of the ship, the cargo on board the ship, and the ident and the nationalities of the sailors. Submit all that and Iran would come back. As long as it's not going to Israel and it's not supporting Israel, the ship gets to go through, no problem. And ships are going through with no problem. Then the United States said, "Oh, well, we're closing the, you know, we're closing the straight of hormones now." Okay. And you go back and look, there's nothing. You know, I've been check I haven't checked today, but [clears throat] last I checked, there's nothing going through.
Yeah.
Except except on the Iranian side. So, there's uh there's a chemical oil product tanker called the Mayoming. Uh it's headed out. It's uh you know it says it's going to Bonder Abas to load up. So um and then but but there really haven't been that many ships going out at all. They're all clustered up waiting. And you know each each passing day makes the the global crisis in diesel uh and jet fuel worse. and and then the economic damages that are inflicted because of the loss of L LNG, the loss of sulfur, the loss of ura and the loss of helium. That helium one is sort of a permanent loss or at least for the foreseeable future that's not getting fixed.
So, um that's on that front. And then on the um um on the Israeli front um Smatri said the following. It's true that while the Iranled access has been weakened a new Sunni access may emerge and we'll have to deal with that. Um so you've got the rhetoric from Israel talking about that.
What what does that mean?
The Sunni deal with it or the Sunni access?
The Sunni access. Who's he?
Yeah. Anyone with Turkey, I think.
Yeah. Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Yeah. Duh.
Look, the the history of what we call terrorism in the 20, you know, in the 21st century for the last 26 years, the the radical attacks, the attacks on civilians, the beheading of prisoners, the beheading, you know, where they saw the heads off of people, those were all Sunnis. Those were not Shia. Uh in fact the Shia themselves many times were the victims of that terrorism by these salopists, these takitis who insisted that they had the truth and nobody had the truth but them. You know that that you always get you find that kind of religious fanaticism. You find it in Judaism. You find it in Christianity. So it's not just unique to to the Sunni version of Islam. You find it in the other, you know, look at the settlers in Israel. They're they're an example of that of, if you would, Takitis, Salafus, uh, and the same you find among a lot of Christian Zionists. So, it's, you know, this is, uh, the fact that they're recognizing that they might have a problem there. And and let's not forget, you know, they they [ __ ] moan and complain about Hamas being a terrorist organization. Who's the one that pumped a billion dollars into Hamas? That was Israel.
Use cut use Qatar as a cutout, but it was Israel pumping the money and they did it because uh [clears throat] they were looking to uh you know split the Palestinians. So it hey comes back to bite you in the rear end.
Yeah. I asked um I never did a deep dive into this. I asked one of the um you know I speak to people from Israel and I asked them on the show about this the money sent to Hamas and the argument they make I don't believe the argument. I think the argument was to weaken um both sides so they don't come together and form a Palestinian state. But the argument that they made was um this was at the Qatari request to allow it into Gaza for humanitarian purposes.
No, no, that's a that's a lie. Look up go on YouTube, look up
Medi Hassan and Israel's funding of Hamas. He did, he did a like a 30-minute video on it. It's not just I spoke to many offering his opinion. He's got, he's got quotes. I mean, he's got Israeli officials, intelligence, military officials on the record admitting to it.
Yeah. You know, so it's has as well. Yeah. Yeah. So, but they, they admit on the part this was to weaken both sides so they don't form a Palestinian state. Is that what they is that to keep Hamas active so the two sides or two factions don't join and strengthen the Palestinian?
It was just a, it was a cynical, cynical play. But again, when if you claim that your your goal is to fight terrorism, but you end up funding terrorists, you got to sit back and say, "Okay, don't don't feed me the [ __ ] line that you're fighting terrorism." Same applies to the United States. They claimed, "Oh, you know, we're against terrorism." Then they accuse Iran of being the number one sponsor of terrorism, which it is not by any measure. Not. Absolutely not. It is. It's the very groups that the United States has funded. ISIS, al-Nusra, Hayatar, Alm. Oh gee, who's Oh yeah, that would be Alshada that we've now put in office. And yet just uh seven years ago, he was on the $10 million reward list and his group was one listed always as the top 10 most active terrorist groups in terms of killing civilians.
So we overlooked that. Ah, he didn't mean it.
Um, and the last story today is from the Telegraph. Iran has used migrant smuggling routes across the English Channel to send suspected covert operatives into the United Kingdom. UK authorities intercepted individuals with alleged links to Iran's intelligence services while they attempted to enter Britain among small boats. Officials use drones and AI-equipped surveillance drones to identify and stop suspected Iranian-linked arrivals. The report says that some migrant smuggling routes across Europe are controlled by the IRGC, particularly its unit 700, the logistics branch of the Kutz force, which allegedly facilitates the movement of operatives into Europe and the UK. An Iranian official told the Telegraph that revolutionary people had been positioned in London and warned Iran could easily make London unsafe if it chose to do so, describing smuggling routes as more useful than missiles. British officials believe the number of suspected Iranian-linked individuals arriving via small boats is far smaller than those entering legally on flights from Europe.
So that's about the u remember the discussion about having those cells, those sleeper cells that Iran had. So, this is part of that.
Gee, I No, I guess there's no chance that could just be propaganda. I mean, we know the Brits do such an effective job of stopping illegal migrants coming into their country. I mean, they've got like an iron wall out there. So, they catching them all. And man, they do not tolerate rape gangs, Muslim rape gangs in the UK. Are you kidding? Boy, they really cracked down on those. I mean, Kier Starmer led the charge on that. Hey, I win the Mario Nefal sarcasm award.
Why wouldn't Why wouldn't the Iranians strategically make sense? Why not have, you know, people countries have spies across the world? I'm sure Iranians have spies across Europe as well.
Yeah. Why wouldn't they?
Sure. Yeah, I'm sure they do. But the the purpose of those spies is to find out what the hell the Brits are going to do to them. I mean, look, their focus right now is surviving a war that's being waged by the United States and Israel.
And now the Brits Brits are joining in.
The Brits launching Yeah. launching B1 bombers from their territory. The Brits are now.
Yeah. Yeah. But that's different. Oh, well, we we haven't talked about British SAS forces that are in Iraq and bases working maybe with Kurds to carry out attacks against Iran.
That's new to me. Why are you dragging the Brits in there, Larry? Let them let them figure out their own problems.
Keep them out of it. Don't Don't trigger the Iranians on the Brits. Now,
last thing, imagine imagine a ballistic missile heading to London.
What air defense are they going to use there? Well, they don't have any, but apart from that,
um, that's it. That's the news for today. I'm glad that New York Times story came out, which is kind of leaves us on a on a positive note to wrap up the day. But, um, anything I missed on your end?
No. So, yeah, here we are at uh, so it's 7 o'clock here, uh, 7 p.m. Eastern, and it's what, uh, is that 2:30 a.m. your time? Yeah. 2 3 3:00 a.m.
It's 3:00 a.m. now. But in in So in Iran is that
around 2:30? Probably 2:30.
2:30 a.m.
Yeah. And so so far because usually this is like the witching hour when the when all these heavy bomber attacks and stuff are taking place and second day in a row it's not taking place.
So it gives some credence to that New York Times article that you read.
Yeah. Exactly. Exactly. Fingers crossed it's true. Fingers crossed. Fingers crossed that this the military analyst that told me that this was just preparing the aircraft for a major strike is not the case. Or maybe it is. Maybe they are preparing the aircraft for a major strike but still reconsidered it anyway. So a major strike might have been planned and they still reconsidered it.
Yeah. Well, I'm telling you that if it was being planned, the planners who should be planning its and sentcom are not they're not spun up doing the planning.
Okay. So, I mean, if they're actually indicator if they're if they're actually planning it, they would be spun up planning it.
My understanding is they're not they're some guys are off on the weekend and you know, they're not operating they're not operating 24/7.
I can sleep tight tonight.
Hey, say I didn't do anything for you today, my man.
All right, man. Well, thanks for the chat as always.
Hey, it's always enjoyable. Hopefully, I didn't cause you any angst or nervousness or upset.
Not today. No.
Okay. All right.
I'll work on it for tomorrow. Okay. Bye-bye.
See you, man. All right, guys. This is it for today. I don't think there'll be strikes as I said earlier. Um, so I think we'll be wrapping up. We'll see you tomorrow. Um, as always, let me see if there's uh anything interesting tomorrow. Let's see the schedule. We've got a Pravin to start off the day. We've got Alan. We have Farad Isadi. He was meant to be today. We rescheduled it. The professor from Thran University. We've got Aaron David Miller, the negotiator. Professor Gibbs. Steve Hank. Then we got Brandon doing MIA. Brandon doing uh uh we've got General Randy Manor as well. We've got an incredible lineup tomorrow. Jesus Christ. All right, tomorrow's going to be a busy day, guys. I'll see you tomorrow. Okay. Have a wonderful day. I'm going to go through the comments now as always. See what you guys think and I'll see you tomorrow. Thank you.