Transcription
Now to discuss the economic and human toll of the Iran war. Elections here at home and more. We turn to Brooks and Marcus. That is the Atlantic's David Brooks and Ruth Marcus of The New Yorker. Jonathan Capehart is away. Good to see you both.
Hi. Let's start with the Iran war and how it's resonating here at home. As you both know, gas prices now, according to AAA, are at $4.11 a gallon as the national average, and while we've long seen Democratic opposition to the war. Here's what a new political poll tells us that some 37% of self-described MAGA voters think the war should continue even if prices go up. That is down from 50% in May, as you both well know, the human toll is also rising. We saw 4 service members killed in just the last week. That's on top of 14 others. The Pentagon previously reported and right before he attended the dignified transfer of those for the president shared this post comparing the death toll of this war to others and writing, these are the facts report them.
So David, at this point costs our Americans and supporters of the president willing to tolerate here.
Yeah, I try not to make predictions because I'm not a total idiot, but I do think I would not surprise me if this war were still going on in January of 2029, when Trump leaves office. I just don't think he cares. I don't think he cares about the midterms. I don't think he cares about gas prices. I think he cares about legacy, and he wants to see himself as a man who remade the Middle East, and he would not be the first US president who had that illusion. Uh, and he talks about there's scuttle but today that their cabinet is gathering to think maybe we should do a big massive expansion of the war. I don't think we have the material to do that, like the missiles, all that kind of stuff, so it would not surprise me if this dragged on with this what we've been seeing in the last couple of months of the missile missile missile exchanges, small exchanges, this, that, talk, non-talk. and that could go on forever. And, you know, Maga came into office saying we will have no more forever wars. But here we are. I have that written down right here. He's gotten us into the kind of forever war that he's pledged that he was going to avoid, and it's not even a forever where it's like a groundhog Day war because we're in the same cycle of threats and then retrenchment and threats and retrenchment, and we have an MOU and we don't have it. I don't actually see how this could continue, even if he wanted it to through January of 2029.
Is that where we have to get to, um, for this reason, uh, exactly what you said, I'm not people are fed up. MAGA is fed up. I filled up the other day at the pump, and it is painful and it's painful for a lot of people, and I just don't think even if he wants to, even if he doesn't care about the midterms, the midterms care about him, and he, even if he wants to persist, Congress at some point, the first rule of politics is self-preservation. They have not shown a willingness to stand up to him and defund the war yet, but that if we are um slinking whatever towards 2029. I think we will see that at some point because this is intolerable for people. It's intolerable for the global economy as well. Use the word painful, we should underscore most painful for the families who've lost someone in this war.
While we're talking about the region because it's already undeniably rippled across the region. This is the same week the Trump administration signed a nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia that lets US companies supply nuclear reactors and fuel for a nuclear energy program in the kingdom. The president says that this deal bars them from uranium enrichment for weapons purposes. He also said yesterday the deal hinges on Saudi Arabia, essentially normalizing relations with Israel, which Saudi leaders have said they will not do unless there is a path for a Palestinian state. David, we have talked about this before, but the president announces a deal and then throws a wrench in it. What what's going on here?
Well, he likes doing deals with the Saudis. He thinks he can make money for American corporations, and this little wrinkle is probably going to make it not happen unless Trump drops the wrinkle. The big picture here is that as US nuclear umbrella withdraws from the world as America begins to play a smaller role in the world. All sorts of countries around the world are thinking, holy cow, we need nuclear weapons. The Saudis are thinking that. The Japanese are thinking about that of all nations, the poles are thinking about that. They would know, and they've suffered and they've, so you have, you could see a dozen 15 countries not getting nuclear weapons, but considering it because the US is no umbrella is no longer there. So if you wonder what the effect of US power is, whether it's a force of stability or not. Here's your sign. It is a force of stability, and when you withdraw that force, the world gets a lot more dangerous right quick. I mean, that's a major reworking of the global security landscape and that's s precisely why this is a bad idea, this nuclear deal is a bad idea because more proliferation is and the risk of proliferation is worse than nonproliferation, and we are admired in this situation with Iran because we helped them get nuclear technology when the Shah was in power. How did that work out for us? So Trump, and it was a bad idea, by the way, when the Biden administration was talking about doing this, so it at least had the prospect of getting the benefit of uh Israeli recognition. Here, you know, Trump, he's so erratic. He knows that Saudi Arabia can't at the last minute agree to the Israel recognition, and he throws it in any way like he's still negotiating leasing the top two floors of Trump Tower or something and thinks he can ring something else out of people at the last minute. It's not going to work, and I think we should probably be semi thankful for that.
Well, while I have you, I want to ask you about some political takeaways from election results. We saw this week because back here at home we saw the crucial swing state of Arizona hold their primary elections on the Republican side in particular, we saw 3 prominent election deniers win their races, these primary races for governor, for Secretary of State, and for Attorney General. David, when you look at these results, what stands out to you? What does it say to you about the party or just about Arizona?
Yeah, I once interviewed a guy who has got the nomination of a major party, and they said, what did you learn when you get the nomination? And he said, I learned we have no party. We call it a party, but there's nothing in the, it's like a box with nothing in there. Donald Trump has actually filled in the box. If some of it is just the Trump persona, but he actually has a structure. He has an organization around the country, they control the local activist community, and therefore they win these primary elections, at least, because they actually have a party. On the Democratic side, it's not clear they have a party yet because you look at the candidates that have been uh championed by the the Washington Democrats. They have a pretty poor batting average. They won 1 out of 2 in Arizona, uh, let alone what happened in New York and other places. And so the Democrats don't have a party, and Trump has a party. It just means it involves nominating a lot of election deniers, but they do have a structure and I wonder whether it will last after Trump, whether MAGA is a thing after Trump. And I think it's not just the Trump personality. I think they actually have cadres. They have a structure. They have believers. So it's, it's it works the way a party used to work, frankly.
So I think you're a lot more bullish on the future of the Republican Party than you should be, and I don't think this is just wishful thinking for this reason. If you're looking at this election in Arizona through the lens of Donald Trump, who doesn't care about the midterms but kind of cares about the midterms. You're going to feel pretty good about this. He asserted his power. He has, I agree with you, shaped the party um and bent it to his will But here's the situation in Arizona, there are 313,000 more Republican voters than Democratic voters. Yet there are two Democratic senators from Arizona and the top 3 statewide officials in Arizona, including the governor Art Democrats. Why is that? Because Republicans led by Trump are hiring, nominating precisely the wrong kind of people. So bully for them that they got their election deniers in the primaries. That's not that hard. How are they going, you see, um, the nominee Andy Biggs for governor, trying to remake himself, but let's be serious, he is the former head of the House Freedom Caucus and a leading election denier. He can deny that now or try to soft play that now. but this is going to be a harder road for Republicans to regain power in the state, then it would have been if they had taken a less Trumpy, more sensible approach.
Just a quick minute left here, but I want to get both of you just uh more than a week after the president delivered a primetime address and blamed China for election interference in 2020. Every time he is asked about it, there do not seem to be any repercussions for that alleged interference. David, why not?
Because he's the present tense man. Everything is happening at that moment and what happened yesterday doesn't matter what happens tomorrow, doesn't matter. He's doing what's happening at this moment. And in this case, I happen to be glad because the China charges were bogus, and we need to have a relationship with China. And so he's like letting us have a relationship with China and not letting bogus charges get in the way. So I'm glad he's, he forgot what happened yesterday.
This was never about calling China to account or um punishing it or cracking down on it. This was just about convincing the voters if he is to lose and November that they shouldn't trust that. It's not about China, it's about the United States and about diminishing confidence in our election system. And meanwhile, President Xi will be visiting the White House in September.
Uh, Ruth Marcus, David Brooks, great to see you both. Thank you so much.
Thank you.