Transcription
Hello, good day everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, a market review, we will talk about BTC which is not far from giving rather bearish signals because we are still on this resistance level that we will see just after depending on the closes we will achieve. Well, there could be some not-so-great closes here for the next few hours, next few days. Then, we will of course talk about Ether. Three coins also that you asked to analyze. I noted Sirup, BNB, and ETC. Before I begin, I want to remind you, you now have only 3 days left to take advantage of the Black Friday offer. You have until Sunday evening to take advantage of it. I remind you, you have âŹ200 offered on the Crypto Investor program if you really want to build a balanced portfolio, a portfolio especially adapted to your profile and prepare yourself for the next bull market. We don't know when it will arrive and the goal is not to anticipate it. The goal is to be ready, to have all the knowledge, the skills, the portfolio that is ready when it arrives. Because if you prepare too late, people who think that it's when a bull market starts that you need to train, no, it's too late. It's in this kind of phase of retracement, of sideways movement, of doubt, where the market is not doing much, that you need to prepare for what's next. Is the person who prepared here or here, which person has the most chance of being ready and making gains on the markets? Well, it's the person who prepared here, or even better, it's during this downtrend. Why? Because you accumulate your skills, you prepare your portfolio, you have your strategy and when it takes off, well, you are ready. The person who trains here, here, and here, well, they will implement this strategy for the next bull market but not the current one. So it takes time to train, of course, but in any case, it is with pleasure that I will accompany you, whether it is with this program of 30 hours of video, 12 modules, but especially here with personalized follow-up via private message where we can discuss your portfolio, your strategy if you have questions that you want me to give you my opinion on certain cryptos or others, and I will do it here with pleasure. As I remind you, as I reminded you, you have âŹ200 offered at the moment. You have until Sunday evening to take advantage of the offer by clicking on the first link in the description.
So here on the uh Bitcoin, we are on a really important level. We will have to monitor what happens in the coming hours. Uh technically, we still have a signal that is rather good in the sense that we have validated this daily W, which is a reversal pattern, a low, a high, a higher low than the previous one, and here the break of our neckline. The problem, there are two, is that the break of the neckline is quite slight. OK, we have a close but it is, as I say, too tight. OK, it's not as if we had closed around $95,000 with a good break. So for me, we are still consolidating on this resistance level. That's the first problem and the second important one here. Why? We identified it recently together. This level of $94,000, that's the work we did at the beginning of the week, at the beginning of the month. We had identified that we had here a double pivot point weekly, pivot point monthly, and we even have the 4-hour tunnel which is uh which is here. So we see this double, even triple reason to uh to be wary. It's a big resistance zone. We have a big block here. So I am very cautious and we will have to monitor the closes we see in the coming hours because for the moment we are in this sideways phase on BTC in the short term and we are simply in a compression with a 15-minute and a 1-hour that is oriented upwards and a 4-hour that is oriented downwards with, in addition, weekly pivot point, monthly pivot point as support. So we are in this sideways phase. We had the 3-minute tunnel acting as support as long as it acts as support, well, we look for longs. From the moment we break it, generally, we have a high chance of going back to test the 15-minute tunnel, which has been done. Now, we have a first buying reaction. Very good, we're going back to it. We can have a second buying reaction. OK, very good. Now, this level needs to hold. If we start to lose $91,700, we will have confirmation of a breakout of this range downwards. And if we start to accept below, flipping the 15-minute tunnel into resistance, yeah, that wouldn't be great. And there would be a high chance here of a retracement to seek much lower levels. So uh I am rather cautious uh as long as we don't have a concrete break of 94. On the other hand, if we break 94 here, there is a high chance then of going to seek 99, step by step. We still have quite a few highs here that have not been retested, which can, this one has been retested, but otherwise there are quite a few highs. If we go there, there could be a potential short squeeze. We are simply liquidating shorts. I remind you, a short closing its position is a market buy, you know. When you are a buyer, you are a future seller. When you are a seller, shorting, you are a future buyer. So the act of closing potential stop losses above these highs can simply create a short squeeze if and only if there is no counterparty. If we trigger these stop losses but there is a selling counterparty, then it means that we will simply have sellers who will manifest themselves. It will potentially lead to a retracement. Now, as I said, step by step, if we break this level, for me, there is a high chance of going to seek $99,000 now.
Uh yeah, I am cautious. Personally, I am cautious. These are market contexts that I don't really like to trade because we are in a small compression with support levels that are quite close to resistance levels. So there is not a big upside for someone who takes a long. Let's say the ground is not clear enough to aim for a significant pump. There can be longs that can be taken, but you don't have a very significant risk-reward. I'll give an example, the person who says, "You know what, I'll position myself on this buying reaction. I have a bullish engulfing, very good, I'll put a stop loss below here to aim for 2 to 3 for one." You see, that requires breaking the weekly pivot point, the monthly pivot point. Whereas if we had, I don't know, a 15-minute tunnel that was lower or weekly/monthly pivot points that were higher, there would have been a greater upside. And this is a typical case. You can have your setup trigger. You can have all the parameters in place to enter a position. If unfortunately your reward is not interesting, well, sometimes it's not worth taking your position. This is something you should always look at. You have a tool here in TradingView that allows you to do this. You put where you want to enter your position, your stop loss, and you have the risk-reward ratio here. When I have a risk of 2 for one here, it simply means that the gap between my entry price and my stop loss here is twice. Hop, at the level of my uh my TP, you see. Hop, I put it here, it's about twice. So that means in this kind of configuration, you risk one to gain two. That is to say, if your risk here is $100, it's to gain $200. If you have a risk of 3 for one, so you risk one to gain three, you risk $100 to gain $300. And I always advise you to have at least a risk of 2 for one. Why? Because with a risk-reward of 2 for one, you can have a trading strategy with a 35-40% success rate. Or more than 40% because there are trading fees to consider. But you can have a trading strategy here with a 40% to 45% success rate and be profitable. Why? Because when you win, well, you win two, and when you lose, you lose one. So that means that when you take two losses, a single win is enough to compensate for the two losses that have occurred. And this simply shows you that you don't have to have trading strategies with an 80-90% success rate like some will announce on social media that they have a 99% success rate, which is generally a lie. OK, good strategies. There is no fixed success rate. It will depend, of course, on the risk you take. Someone who will have a high risk-reward because it will be adapted to their psychology, for example, 5 for one, so I risk 100 to gain 500, automatically that person will not have an 80% success rate, it's not possible because the risk is too high. The higher the risk, the greater the chance that the success rate will be low. Now, it's up to you to find which risk-reward is adapted to your profile because if you have too much risk, you will have a low win rate, a low success rate, and not everyone can sustain a profitable strategy with a 20% success rate because you have to accept that out of 10 trades, you take 8 losing trades. OK? And mentally, that can be difficult. As I say, each strategy is specific to each psychology. So, in any case, on BTC for the moment, I am on standby. It's certain that what BTC is doing now is better than in the last few weeks. That's why, as I say, I entered around 86,000. VoilĂ , I had a small zone that allowed me to enter a position with the cash I recovered recently. And especially it's our first stop, as a reminder. Hop, first Fibo stop here 0.382. Small buying reaction. VoilĂ , we must remember that the 0.382 Fibo throughout this bullish cycle, well, they held here. We see well, 0.382 held. I extend. Here, we didn't even retest it. I extend. Here, we just touched it with a wick. Hop. I extend. Here, we just touched it with a wick. And so on and so forth. Well, I don't really like the structure that Bitcoin is drawing. We are rejecting once again on the 0.382. That's why I put a small amount here, a part of the cash I had recovered. Now, I still have cash ready to be deployed much lower. Will we go there? I have no idea. My goal is not to anticipate it. If we don't go there, by forming a W, by having re-integrations, well, I can re-expose myself higher. So, as I say, the most important thing is to be flexible. The market goes down, I know what to do. The market goes up, I know what to do. The worst position is when we are like this, either hoping the market goes up because we are in a delicate position, or else we hope the market dumps. Absolutely. These are the worst positions because, consequently, you are dependent on the market. There is nothing worse than being dependent on the market. That's it for BTC.
I was quickly asked how to draw these support and resistance levels. I don't have super fixed rules either. It will simply be zones where I estimate that we have had buying or selling reactions. If I take, for example, ranges like we had here, it will be previous low ranges or previous high ranges as we see here, we had a previous low range, previous range. Also, we have an intermediate level, it's simply levels where we had buying or selling reactions. I just look at my chart and I say, "Okay, well, here you see, I have a contact point, here I have a second one with this wick, a third, a fourth. Here, I have another one. Here, I had one. If I go back even further, I had quite a few here. Here I clearly see that we have a level. Be careful though when you draw your resistance or support zones, it's never a line. OK? It's never a line. It's an intervention zone. You have to work by zones and not by dollar-by-dollar levels. OK? After that, you will have longer-term support levels like these levels here, this level here, these can be intermediate support levels and then you have medium-term support levels like this support level here, like these. Yeah, these are medium-term support levels, but they are simply zones where the market is likely to react. And you see this level here, I had drawn it a while ago, we broke through it. OK, but then it acted as resistance or support again. I don't have fixed rules, OK? It's simply my interpretation of what I see on the market where there have been buying reactions or selling reactions. Now, I'm not here drawing 50,000 support or resistance zones. The goal is that my chart is readable. You see, hop, I have steps, and when we break these steps, the objective is the next step. You see, here, buying reaction. Objective: go seek the next one. If here I have a selling reaction, it's to go back and seek this level. If, however, I have a buying reaction and a break, it's to go seek the next resistance zone. Now, it's not because we have a support level or a resistance level that it's 100% certain that the market will stop there and put in a bottom. We don't know. OK. Yes, it's probabilities. Yes, there's a higher chance that if we go there, the market will stop at this level rather than at the levels, I don't know, of 78,000 because for me, this level is more important than the 78,000 level. Now, it's never 100% certain. My goal is to react at levels that seem interesting to me, quite simply.
Uh, regarding Ether, Ether is a bit more bullish than BTC, with a W structure that is much more interesting. We see it clearly here with the validation of this pattern at this level of $2,800 for Ether. So, a small buying reaction. We haven't specifically put in a long-term bottom, but we are going back to test an intermediate level which is an interesting level, 2800, with this W pattern here. So we can have a buying reaction here. If we pull back to the neckline, then we have a real break. You see, that's what I was saying about BTC, that's what we were missing. It's a real impulsive daily candle like we have, like we have here. And here, if we pull back to the neckline, it could be a good entry zone. On the other hand, there is a clear invalidation. There are two types of invalidation for this type of W structure. Either you say, "OK, I'm a bit safer, more cautious." In that case, your invalidation will be if we go below the structure. I used to do it a lot like that when I started trading, meaning I had my W pattern and I said to myself, "If we go below the structure, then I'm out." OK, because I have an invalidation of my bottom. Otherwise, there is a more aggressive way. I also do it a lot more than before. Before, I didn't like it too much because I had less experience, I was less comfortable with the market, of course, than now, but I sometimes do it like that. It's to take an intermediate level, it will simply be, I will monitor two things: the re-integration of our impulsive neckline that broke our W. And I determine this level which is here. Why? Because if we go below roughly $3,000, let's take a wide margin, $3,000, $2,990 if you prefer, then I will have a re-integration of my neckline and two, I will re-integrate the impulsive candle that broke the neckline, and that's something we generally don't like to see. I don't know if I have an example in mind. I don't specifically, I'd have to look, it's complicated to find like that, but I'll try to find this type of pattern for you. But generally, when we have an impulsive candle that breaks this type of pattern, there's no reason to go back below it. And if we do, in any case, it's better to validate because it's going much lower. It's to go much lower. So Ether, here, typically, this is a reversal pattern. It's a W structure. Ah, well, here's the perfect example. Yes, I was looking for it, and here it is. You see, I have my W structure. Low, high, higher low, high. I have my break here with this impulsive candle here and the break of my neckline at this level. And as I said, either I do the slightly more cautious method, I say if we go below this level, I'm out. So that means we exit at this level, at the level of this bearish candle. Or else I say as soon as we go back below this level. And we see that on this candle, we have a close below, and it even becomes a resistance level afterwards. And we see that it allows for a perhaps more aggressive invalidation. OK, but at least you have an entry, a much higher exit. So for people looking for longs on Ether to revisit higher resistance levels, we have 3800 here, we have, I haven't noted it, but we have an intermediate level around 3300-3400, around that zone. We have this imbalance zone, we have this previous zone, we consolidated, we have a level of interest at this level. If we go there, it could be a good zone to take profits, but anything that comes back could be a good zone to look for buys with an invalidation, as I said, below 2990. If I put moving averages, hop, on Ether, it's pretty much the same as on BTC, except that we are a bit higher in the 4-hour tunnel. We still have the 15-minute oriented upwards, the 1-hour oriented upwards. We are at the 4-hour level. I still prefer Ether's chart compared to BTC's chart. Why? Because on Ether, you see, we have gone above the weekly pivot point and we have gone above the monthly pivot point. So here, we are in a good location zone to continue the trend, knowing that Ether has been much stronger than BTC recently. We see it clearly here, even on daily, we are trying to break. Although, we are still on this high range. We'll see if it breaks, but we're trying to push. I find Ether a bit more interesting currently. So, why not look for longs on Ether to play a rebound with, as I said, invalidation below this level. And the 15-minute pullback to the neckline can be opportunities, which makes for a good risk-reward here if you, hop, say, "OK, I'm entering here on 15 minutes, I have an invalidation below this level." You see, if we go to 3400, the daily tunnel, I have a 2 for one. If we push to seek 3800, I have a 4 for one. After, of course, you take your profits on the way up, partial TP according to your plan, but here, it's a setup that can simply be interesting. So, on that side, on Ether, I'll move on to the altcoins that I was asked to analyze. I have Sirup weekly here. So, where are we? Uh, a chart that is rather ugly currently. Why? Well, we see it clearly. Bottom, big pump, price discovery. We've had a very good performance here. And here, we have a top pattern that has formed with a break at this level. If we have trouble seeing it, we can switch to daily. We see clearly that we had a whole sideways phase here, and now we have broken out of this sideways phase downwards. So we are in a bearish dynamic. We can put Fibo retracements to determine interesting levels. OK. VoilĂ , we are in our reload zone. Honestly, on altcoins, on cryptos like Bitcoin, Ether, BNB, these big cryptos, I will take my reload zone 0.618 to 0.786. on weekly, that allows me to have professional entry zones where we generally put in bottoms. However, on altcoins, since we retrace more, I like to go seek the 0.886. So here, it's true that on Sirup, if we go there, in the next few weeks, next few months, there is a very good zone if we simply put in a bottom. Uh, and otherwise, for the moment, it's down, it's down. We have moving averages oriented downwards. We are below the 1-hour, below the 4-hour, below the daily. You see, there's a difference between positioning yourself on Ether, for example, which is above its 1-hour, above its 15-minute, or even on strong altcoins that we saw yesterday. It was yesterday, we saw these strong altcoins that are simply standing out, a bit less today, of course, but here, it allows you to choose, as I said, these strong cryptos. We saw, well, SUI was not bad. Channing also, which was rather encouraging. It's much better than positioning yourself as a buyer on a crypto like this which is in a downtrend and where we get rejected, where all the highs we make, well, all the rebounds rather, are immediately sold. So what we are missing here is, yes, a reversal pattern, a bullish signal. In any case, when we break this range that has lasted quite a while, there is a high chance, either we have a very rapid re-integration and in that case, it's to go quickly seek the opposite extremity. For example, we can take Chainlink here where we break the range downwards here, and you see, we re-integrate, and directly after re-integrating, it's to go seek a +607% there and to go back to seek the extremity. So either we do that, but in that case, we need a rapid re-integration, we shouldn't wait 3 months below, otherwise it's really that we have broken, and in that case, we will have a higher chance of having a large sideways phase to then put in a bottom. If we don't have that, it will be to position ourselves, it means we will go to make, it means we will go to make an all-time low and break that.
Next, analysis of BNB. BNB, where are we? Well, we have experienced a retracement here. BNB, the chart remains encouraging. So if we draw the support levels as I showed you, what jumps out at us? This big level is a very big zone. Hop, it's the next big support zone. Now, there can be intermediate ones, for example. Here we have a small one too, but in any case, this whole zone is an important level. After that, we can draw others. We see that this is also a big level, but well, step by step, it's here before we get there. I think we have some time. We are on a small retracement, however, on BNB, -41%. We have surely gone back to test our 0.382 Fibo. We have even broken it. So logically, when we break the 0.382, it's to go seek the 0.18 Fibo next. In any case, on BNB, for me, the interesting zone to position oneself is this zone of $650. Why? Because we have the 0.18 Fibo, we have this zone which is simply our previous ATH, we have consolidated well. For me, BNB has no interest in going back below these lows because if we do that, well, it's to go much lower and put in a bottom at least at the $450 level. This is a big zone. We have consolidated for more than a year. We broke it upwards, we even pulled back here. It's a level where, well, there's supposed to be a buying reaction. So anything that comes back to seek this zone is a good zone. Now, in the shorter term, where are we, we had this top structure. Now, I wanted to put moving averages rather. We had this top structure. Very good. We have here broken this W structure. We have, we still have a good break. Now, we are in the 4-hour tunnel. So, either we position ourselves by saying, "Yeah, but the 4-hour tunnel will break, but it would be good to make a new high to have confirmation that we are indeed making higher highs and breaking the 4-hour tunnel." What is complicated with this W structure is that yes, we validate a W pattern, but we are still on a resistance zone.
And the last crypto that was asked of me, I have ETC here. ETC, it's not great, it's not the end either, but it's not exceptional. Now, it's still quite good in the sense that if we are to look for longs, it's really in this level because here, we are on a low range that has been going on since 2022 with a good amplitude for this range. If we go to seek the extremity, we are not far from being at a x3. We are at a level where invalidation is very quick. That is to say, someone who takes longs here can say that if we close below, let's say below $11, $11-$12, this zone, it means we have an exit from this range downwards. You have to cut your losses, you have to leave. Someone who trades this range, well, here we are, yes, in a good zone. On the other hand, we need a rebound. OK. We see that ETC is really weak. Most have validated this W, and ETC is not at all the case. So if we really start to make new lows here and break these lows, that's really where we will go down and where we will potentially have the exit from this sideways phase that has been going on for a while downwards. On the other hand, it's not a place to panic. It's not a place to short. We are at a support level. On the other hand, there is a lack of positive signals. There isn't much. But there can be a long with a good risk that can be taken. Let's assume the person who enters here and says, "Well, I'm playing the opposite extremity over several months potentially if we have a rebound with a very tight stop loss." Let's say if we have a weekly close, let's take the figure of $11.5. Well, if we start to close weekly below this level, we still have a risk-reward that is quite interesting. Now, of course, you will never have this risk-reward because you will take profits on the way up. But even already, if we have a rebound to $20, $25, it can be a trade that can be taken. Here, you have a trade that does not have a particularly high success rate. I think I think the success rate is less than 50%. So that means you have more than a one in two chance of getting stopped out. On the other hand, you have a very significant risk. OK? And this trade can be very interesting to take because, as here, as here, as every time we have rebounded, well, here, we have even more chance of rebounding. On the other hand, if we lose it, well, then it's really to go lower and to have an exit from this sideways phase. You see, it's a bit like charts like we will see with, for example, EGLD. EGLD is a bit of an example. Hop, I could take other examples too. But you see EGLD, well, here we had a big level, we rebound, we rebound very well, but after we lose this level, we go down. You see, it's ugly. It's like we saw yesterday with, I have an even better example, NCK, we saw it yesterday. You see, hop, NCK, it's a perfect example that can be a bit similar to ETC. where we are here, we have a buying reaction, a second, a third, and so on. Then when it breaks, well, then you have to cut, you have to cut because otherwise we fall. OK, so that's the only setup I see from my side on ETC. Now, it's not the strongest crypto, we see that clearly because if I put moving averages here, hop, tac, remove everything. We are below the 4-hour, we are below the daily, and we are not really pushing. We haven't even broken the neckline of this potential W pattern that is being validated on other altcoins.
So, I have analyzed these three cryptos. Don't hesitate to tell me what you think and especially if you have other cryptos you want me to analyze. If you want to be autonomous, to form your own opinions, to build your own portfolio, well, this is where it happens. OK? You have âŹ200 offered to use right now. You only have a few days left until Sunday evening to take advantage of the offer by clicking on the first link in the description. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.