Must Draft Players That Look Awfully Familar...

We are on a mission to find this year's blank. We're going to go through and find 26 different league winners based on the criteria of 13 players last season that basically smashed their ADP. We're huge win rate guys, huge playoff rate guys.

Last year when we did this video, I called Puka Nakua being 2024 Jamar Chase, Jonathan Taylor being 2024 Saquon Barkley, 2024 Bowers. We picked the low-hanging fruit of Warren and Loveland. Obviously, this year's breakout rookie being Igbuka. You had Lawrence to 2024 Mayfield. Odunay to 2024 JSN for a good 10 weeks there. And then 2024 Barkley, you had Chase Brown. So, we did pretty well in this video last year.

Danny, let's pivot into this year's Puka Nua, the early-round receiver that you got to have. And for each one of these guys, we'll try and break down why they hit, like the similar profile. So, for Puka, he was going inside the top, you know, 12 picks, first two rounds. He ended up being the guy that you needed. MVP quarterback, top-tier offense, elite number one talent. But the reason you were getting him at like 109 instead of 103 or whatever, he could have been going at was the QB injury of Matthew Stafford and Puka's own injury concerns to some degree as well.

Yeah. And, uh, to the surprise of no one, my take on who's going to be this year's Puka Nua is the guy I have ranked at fifth overall. CD Lamb, the guy that was going off the board in the top four last year, dealt with his injury concerns, is in a top-five insulated offense with a potential MVP quarterback. We know he's an elite talent. And Corey, go back to Puka's thing and show the people what he did in 2024.

In 2024, uh, in 2024, so as you guys can see here, uh, go to the career, uh, again, and find the averages. So, as you can see there, in the 11 games he played in 2024, .3 touchdowns per game, 90 receiving yards per game, about 7.2 receptions per game, blows up this past year, ups his point per game total by five points per game. If you go to CD Lamb and go to his game logs, I can point this to you, but there's an 11-game stretch from the first two weeks of the season and week 7 to 15 prior to the Cowboys getting eliminated. Corey, in that stretch, he had over six receptions per game, 97 receiving yards per game, 18 points per game in fantasy football. The same commonality there is that the touchdown luck wasn't really going their way, but they were complete volume hogs. At the end of the day, you're going to have a lot of people saying, "Oh, CD Lamb, he's overrated. CD Lamb, he was only 14.9 points per game last year without contextualizing how the season went." To me, I think this is the discount of all discounts. We want players on good offenses. We want elite players that can have 26, 27% of their team's targets. And I think CD Lamb is the best player outside of the consensus top seven that can be this year's Spookua.

Yeah. So to take your bias out of it a little bit, I think it's Mickey Mouse to take the week 16 and 17 game out of his sample because he was running full of routes and that kind of thing. But generally, I agree with you. You want good players on good teams. The Cowboys are going to throw like crazy. Lamb has obviously been a top-tier wide receiver one before. So yeah, like Puka had a career history of being very good and that's kind of how you get to the CD Lamb being the 2026 or 2025 version of Puka Nakua.

Staying in the NFC East, or I guess he was in the NFC East, AJ Brown. The reason that I think he can be this year's Puka because again, I'm going into the second round here, so I'm going a little bit loose with the rules. MVP quarterback, well, he lost the MVP battle to Matthew Stafford last year, and it's a top-tier offense. He's an elite number one talent. And the same kind of concern you had or same thing that you pointed out for CD Lamb, I can point out for AJ Brown. He started to get banged up at the beginning of the season. Once he was back on the field fully healthy after that, like week 10, week 11 stretch when he's running his full allotment of routes, he finished the season with like 17, 18 points per game from weeks, you know, 11 onward after that Detroit game. So for me, I look at AJ Brown as being discounted because of what he looked like at the beginning of the season in an offense where they weren't throwing the ball. Now he goes to an offense where they do throw the ball. He's got an MVP-caliber quarterback. And AJ Brown's got a long history of being a top 12 wide receiver in fantasy. He's never had a 20-point per game season. But could that be this year? Could it be the 2020 Stefon Diggs when he went to Josh Allen and he had his best season of his career? That is what I'm making the bet on with AJ Brown. Yes, he's 29 years old, but he's not 33 years old.

Hear me out. Obviously, if you are a football historian or if you're just simply of age to have watched Randy Moss, Randy Moss was a better receiver than what AJ Brown was. But hey, guess what? You have a top two MVP candidate quarterback. We saw what 2007 Randy Moss looked like. Touchdown equity. We know he's an elite talent. Obviously, there's some concerns the fact that he played hurt last year, that maybe at times he didn't look like the separator that he was in years past. But at the end of the day, if this offense is scoring 25 points per game, AJ Brown at the end of the second can absolutely feed families. But, um, those seem like the, you know, two very solid shouts in the top 24. We could have thought about a guy like Amon St. Brown, but realistically, he hasn't been on a downtrend. We could have talked about, you know, like a Justin Jefferson, but quite frankly, I don't think he's going to have the MVP quarterback or the offensive insulation. To me, in terms of the profile of this year's Spookua, these two made a lot of sense. Go was the other guy considered, but you need Strad to play like 2023 Strad for that to happen.

Absolutely. But we will go on. Uh, another one of the big winners of last year, 17.7% win rate, 69.4% playoff rate was Jonathan Taylor. And if you remember the discourse on Jonathan Taylor entering last year, he was a productive running back in the past. He was considered one of the best running backs in the league, one of the best workhorses in the league. But the questions last year were that the Colts offense had some question marks. They did have good weapons, but we didn't really believe in their quarterback situation. But at the end of the day, workhorse usage and touchdown equity prevailed. Who was your bet to be this year's Jonathan Taylor? And to me, this is freaking hilarious because you literally called last year's Jonathan Taylor the year prior's version of what Saquon Barkley was.

Yeah, I mean, I'm just going to ping pong these two guys year after year because they're both workhorse running backs who get 75, 80% of their team's touches. And again, running back and receiver, for that matter, are not linear. Sometimes you're going to get a Hall of Fame talent like Saquon Barkley or even maybe Jonathan Taylor's on that career trajectory with a couple more good years where one year they're the RB1 overall, then the next year they're the RB9 overall. Then the next year maybe they deal with some injuries to the RB14 overall. Like Saquon Barkley, I don't know why he was so bad last year. Maybe it was the 400 touch hangover, the Super Bowl hangover for the Eagles offense, but he now has a better offensive scheme that could get him more involved in the passing game and a better play caller. The only real concern I have for Saquon Barkley is, you know, he's 29 and a half years old. The offensive line has dealt with some, you know, turnover from an age perspective. Obviously, Jason Kelsey retired before last season, Lane Johnson's getting up there in age and and that kind of thing. But as long as Saquon Barkley can stay healthy, he's still one of the best five to 10 running backs in football. And I still think the Eagles are going to win 11, 12 games. So, yeah, this year's Jonathan Taylor, people have questions about this Eagles offense. And I frankly think it's a little ridiculous.

Yeah, I'm one of those people that have the questions. And it's funny because when you look at the general, even with those questions, I have him at 16 overall. I have more questions with the passing game. I have more questions with what we saw from the offensive line play last year. At the end of the day, though, if the Eagles offense is going to work out, it's because Saquon Barkley maybe not reach 2024 levels, but at the very minimum showed to be a much better running back than he was last year. Do I think he can be a 22.21 point per game player at this point? Maybe not. But at the end of the day here, 18, 19, 20 points per game, I absolutely think is in the range of outcomes.

Yeah. I mean, he'd have to get there in a different way than he got there in 2024. Like he would need to get back to maybe these 4.3, 4.8 target per game type of totals because I don't think he's rushing 125 yards a game again.

I agree. Like maybe if it was like a 19 and a half carry per game, 95 rushing yard per game roll and then you got a bump tick in terms of the receiving volume. I think that would be his pathway.

Yeah. Uh the other thing too is that Taylor got there on the back of 18 rushing touchdowns and Barkley plays in a good enough offense that he can put up those type of numbers, but he would have to run pretty pure on like tush pushes working out his way and that kind of thing. So this one I think is the right answer, um, for for this, and that's Bree Hall, that you have. Why is he this year's Jonathan Taylor?

Yeah. So, uh, let me paint the picture for you with Bree Hall because at one point, spoiler alert, his first two years, obviously the first one kind of cut off, very early, seven games into his season. Terrace's ACL, running back seven, running back six in points per game in his first two seasons. 2024, played through a ton of injuries, still finished with over 15 PPR points per game. And last year, I'm not sure if you watch any New York Jets football, but they were one of the hardest watches in the entire NFL. On top of that, they weren't really throwing the football a ton, as we see in terms of his target totals went down down the stretch. The reason why I think Bree Hall could be this year's Jonathan Taylor's kind of because he kind of has the stink in terms of, "Oh, I don't like their offense. Oh, Bree Hall, he's been kind of banged up. He's played through injuries. He hasn't really been himself this past year." But we know Bree Hall is one of the best talents in the league. We know Bree Hall when he's operating at his best can give you 95, 100 yards from scrimmage per game. And on top of that, I think this is the year that he has his highest touchdown upside. The Jets offensive line, sneaky young ascending unit. They could be one of the best units in football this year. You look at the overall weapons core like the Colts had last year. Pierce to stretch the field, Pitman downs to work the slot, Warner to operate the tight end core. Well, guess what? The Jets, Garrett Wilson, Omar Cooper Jr., Adnai Mitchell, Kenyan Sadiq, arguably one of the most underrated skill position cores in the entire NFL. At the end of the day, when I see Bree Hall in the mid-third round, especially if I started with a, you know, hero wide receiver build, maybe I grabbed a guy like Amon or St. Brown in the first, I grabbed a guy like Saquon Barkley in the second, I want to wrap back in the third and get a guy like Bree Hall. To me, is the ultimate lottery ticket to top-five upside of the top 24 selections.

Yeah. And similar to the the Colts, I I don't think we're getting Jets number one in EPA for the first 10 games as an offense, but similar to the Colts, like you said, the Colts offense, if you looked at their weapons group, their play caller, and their offensive line, you'd say they're probably not going to be as bad as people say they are. So, the the reach here is that Bree Hall is on like, let's say, a below-average league offense as opposed to what the Colts were at the beginning of the season. But again, the other thing that helped Jonathan Taylor was that he went from 2.2, 2.3 targets per game to 3.2 targets per game, which is also a big argument in favor of Bree Hall. Having mobile quarterbacks like Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor last year, going to a pocket quarterback like Gino Smith who fed Ashen Genty as a rookie 73 receiving targets. That's how you get Bree Hall having a top-five season is that he has 90 targets or whatever, 95 targets, I think is what he had in his second season.

Yeah. And at the end of the day, we heard a lot of FUD going into last year. Oh, it's going to be a three-headed monster. Oh, it's going to be a committee. This and that. Corey, last year was Bree Hall's most carries per game in his NFL career.

Yeah, and they rewarded him with a big contract. That being said, I still think Brilan Allen's a good handcuff, but I I do think he's gonna fall in line behind Bree Hall as we're kind of expecting here. That one I don't feel extremely confident in. Like I think that the right answer for this year's Jonathan Taylor is probably like Chase Brown most likely, but he doesn't really fit the criteria of like, we know the offense is going to be good in Cincinnati. You know what I mean? Same with the Chargers and Amari and Hampton. It's like, we know the offense is going to be good with those guys. So, we had to try and pick a guy who's going on more of an underrated offense. Derrick Henry also maybe could have fit the description for that as well.

Yeah, 100%. At the end of the day, kind of trying to fill the criteria, we have offense question marks. A lot of people have offensive question marks with the Jets.

Yeah, the Cardinals maybe would make sense to with Jeremiah Love. This year's Jackson Smith and Jigba. What everybody is going to be trying to find because JSN obviously monster year. 22.6% win rate, third-round receiver who in a round where not a lot of people were hits in general comes out, has 21.17 points per game. You had a 76% chance of making the playoffs if you had Jackson Smith and Jigba, like he was a monster last year. Now, we both went with low-hanging fruit options. I go with the guy who replaces Jackson Smith and Jigba at Ohio State in Acha Ibuka. But when you check the boxes for why JSN hit, young ascending receiver, we knew he was good already, right? We have a sample of Acha Ibuka being good in the NFL already. He became a good receiver to elite receiver, which is what I think Acha Ibuka can be if he takes that next step. Great scheme, good play calling. I think that Zack Robinson's an underrated hire. Dealing with no quarterback play in Atlanta, he made good things happen for Drake London and for Bijan Robinson and for Kyle Pitts. And Baker Mayfield when he's playing well is an efficient deep passer. That was a big part of Amecha Igbuka's thing. And also play action is something that Baker is very good at, just like Sam Darnold was good at last year. And the other part of this too was the surprise element of how good the Seahawks were on offense. And I think I'm biased. Obviously, I'm a fan of the team, but I think the Bucks could surprise people because we have a sample of Ibuka being good, Godwin being good, Mayfield being good in recent years.

Cory, talk your [ __ ] I talked about CD Lamb for a whole three minutes. Talk about your Bucks. Be proud.

Yeah, they can be a top 12 scoring offense, man. If you guys watch quarterback in the first seven, eight games of last season, Baker Mayfield was an MVP candidate. They had 11 different offensive line combinations last year because Tristan Wirfs started the season on the PUP. Aka Igbuka was a rookie. Chris Godwin wasn't healthy. Like, you get 2024 Chris Godwin, 2025 first seven games Ibuka, and 2025 first seven games Baker Mayfield behind the offensive line. We know the Bucks have a top 10 offensive line when healthy. This team could be really good on offense. Yeah, there's definitely upside there. Uh, I like the Ibuka call. I do have him at 40 overall, but that that's just because I think this range of receiver is just so competitive. But if somebody will take that step up to be this year's JSN, it's probably going to be the second-year player who, like you said, in those first seven weeks was averaging how many? 17 points per game.

Not to mention like knows exactly how to play like Jackson Smith and Jigba because he literally learned from him in college. So, uh, that's the other part of it. The other, the one thing where this falls apart a little bit for both of our guys is that a big part of JSN was a 35% target share.

Target competition. Obviously, you're not going to find a one-to-one to the JSN case last year. Um, but we're going to try our best. And, uh, the reason why I'm going with Lad McConkey is that you mentioned the criteria, young ascending receiver who we knew was great. Go to his rookie season, 2.56 yards per run, over 71 receiving yards per game. I'm sorry. There is zero question mark that Lad McConkey has shown to be a good wide receiver in the NFL. If you want to argue that 2025 was not that year, I will hear you out. But 2024, objectively, he was that type of player. He took that step to become elite. We saw 2.56 yards per run as a rookie. And that's even including the fact that he started the season slow. Now, on top of that, we look at the scheme. They bring in Mike McDaniel. What was the number one reason why we were higher on JSN last year? The addition of Clint Kubiak, the efficiency in the deep passing portion of the game. Well, guess what? Mike McDaniel, we know that from history. Tyreek Hill, 2023, Jaylen Wadd, since he took over as the head coach for Miami, he knows how to designate deep targets in his offense. And finally, is it going to be a surprising offense? Can it be an offense that's top five in EPA, top seven in EPA, top three in EPA? To me, the Mike McDaniel-led Justin Herbert-led Chargers offense with Lad McConkey as the true number one receiver makes it so that what if we're talking about it a year from now and he is coming off of an 18, 19, 20 point per game season as the wide receiver five.

Yeah, he would have to dominate the targets in a way that I don't think he will because I think QJ's a good player and I think Aronda Gadson can command targets and whatnot. But, uh, yeah, I think he's going to be the popular pick for this year's Lad McConkey. The, or this year's Slad Makoni, this year's JSN. The, um, other one that I considered was Devonte Smith just because third-round receiver, we knew he was good, surprising offense, all that stuff kind of fits for him as well. Let's move into James Cook. This year's James Cook. James Cook was a 3-4 turn pick last year. 19% win rate, 71.4% playoff rate. Know going into the season, we knew he's a great offense starting running back, past top six to eight production. Like he finished as the RB 11 in points per game, the RB8 overall in, uh, in fantasy in 2024, but people assumed he would regress. They were like, "Oh, he's not going to have as many touchdowns as he had before." Some of the other running backs, Ray Davis, Ty Johnson, are going to take stuff away from him. But Cook smashed again because he's a great player on a great team. And sometimes the casual fantasy player, cuz in my home league, a casual fantasy player took him at 301 because he's like, "He's a Bill, the Bills starting running back, and he's a good player, like I'm just going to take him really high." And that was a surprising pick at the time, but sometimes the casuals get some things right and just not overthinking certain things. James Cook regression arguments was overthinking him.

Yeah. And, uh, the caveat here is I don't, I wouldn't classify. So you mentioned great player with James Cook. Like James Cook universally, even going into the year, we were like, "Oh, this is probably like a top five to seven running back town." Unfortunately, he just wasn't getting the workload because as we see, 12.9 carries per game in 2024, this jumps all the way to 18.2 last year. His rushing yards per game went up 32 rushing yards per game. So I don't think you're getting the great player here, but at the same time, both of ours kind of fit the rest of the quota. We trust the offenses. We believe they're good players. They're going to have goal-line autonomy on what should be, like I said, 25, 26, 27 point per game offenses. You can start off with Kairen Williams, and, uh, I will go with the other Williams to follow suit.

Sure. Yeah. Kairen Williams, I think he's the best depiction of like this year's James Cook because the reasons that people don't want to draft Kairen Williams to me feel overthinky. Like everyone's going, "Oh, Blake Corum's a good player." He is. He is a good player, but my opinion is that Kairen Williams will be the starting running back as long as Kairen Williams is healthy. And me and the Domain guys appear to be on an island with where we have Kairen Williams ranked. We have him right at the two-three turn. Lots, you know, Mason Davis, you, Zack, Sam, you guys are more three-four turn as where you guys are ranking him. But again, similar to James Cook, I just think he's a really good running back on a good team. He's been a top 12 running back in three straight years. So, yeah, Blake Corum's a good player and he's going to affect the workload of of Kairen Williams, but every running back's in a committee nowadays. Like, yeah, Blake Corum's going to be 30, 40% of the touches, but I don't care. Tyron Williams, you can go, okay, down the stretch, his workload was reduced. Look at what he's doing for fantasy in that stretch. He was still really good. Yeah, he he's definitely a click where if you're trying to catch up at running back, maybe, for example, you started a double hero build, you started a hero build, like you need running backs to kind of fill a quota. I think Kron Williams can give you a solid 16-plus points per game type of projection this year. 16 points per game in the third round is worth more than the 38th overall player where you guys have him ranked.

I, I mean, I have him at 35 and I also said potentially he can give you that because I ultimately think it's going to be a closer split with him and Corum, but that's a topic for another day. I have these two actually back-to-back in my rankings with Kairen Williams and with Javonte Williams. I have Javonte Javonte one spot higher because realistically, when I'm looking at it, I think both are top three to five running back projections. Even if you want to say the Rams are one and the Cowboys are four, yeah, the Rams are probably going to be a slightly better offense, but they're both going to be in that elite tier. On top of that, when I'm looking at the autonomy of the goal-line touches, at least with Kairen, I know Corum can be efficient in that capacity. I can't point to any other Cowboys running back, Jaden Blue, Malik Davis, and see that they're actually a real threat to take those consequential touches away from Javonte. Maybe this offseason people have said, "Well, what if Jaden Blue earns a role? What if Malik Davis eats into some of the workload?" If you guys hear how the Cowboys talk about Javonte Williams, they view him as a crucial part of their offense. Will McClellin was on an interview basically saying one of the biggest priorities of their offseason was re-signing Javonte Williams because he sets the tone, because he gets the tough yards, and because he's a back we can depend on when we're in scoring situations. And ultimately, if the Cowboys are going to have a lot of scoring situations, they're going to be inside the five. People might say, "Oh, well, Javonte Williams, he's touched on our bust." Yeah, but if he scores 13 touchdowns, 14 touchdowns, nobody's going to bat an eye. The main drawback last year was that he didn't get the receiving usage. And I, I think with Javonte, it's not like you're going to suddenly get a spike of a 60, 70 target year. Like, that's not what you're drafting Javonte for. But if he walks into 14 touchdowns, you are not complaining with that pick at the end of the third.

Yeah, I think, I mean, I have Javonte ranked at 30, so I'm higher on Javonte than you are, respectively. I think that that my my kind of hot take here is that if you're picking towards the middle back end of the second round, instead of taking Derrick Henry, you should just take a receiver and then take Javonte Williams or Kairen in the third round because I actually have Kairen straight up over Derrick Henry in my rankings and I'm close with Javonte Williams to putting him straight up. So, I would rather have the opportunity bundle of Nico Collins or Rasheed Rice or AJ Brown and Javonte or Kairen versus Derrick Henry and T. Higgins.

Yeah. And like I understand people might look at Javonte and think, "Oh, there it's it's a thin bet because the receiving profile and if again people work behind him, but when a team talks about you in that capacity, just because Jaden Blue was selected in the draft doesn't mean he's qualified for the touches. Just because Malik Davis was decent in a limited role last year doesn't mean he's qualified for a role bump. Javonte Williams is the identity of the Cowboys run game. And he is a perfect fit, by the way, for what Clayton Adams wants to do with the offensive line. Cuz guess what? Where did the Clayton Adams come from? Cory.

Arizona, which is Javonte Williams, James Connor type of role. I think Javonte Williams is kind of also new Joe Mixon, David Montgomery-esque as well, where he's just going to be.

Yeah, 100%.

Yeah. All right. George Pickens, one of the biggest league winners at wide receiver last year. Sticking with the Cowboys here. 16.1% win rate, 71% of people who took George Pickens made the playoffs. Why did George Pickens hit? Well, he hit because he was good. Everyone kind of knew that who were film bros and that kind of thing. New situation. He changed teams from the Pittsburgh Steelers over to the Dallas Cowboys. But ultimately, the reason that George Pickens smashed and didn't just hit, cuz he was hitting before he smashed. Lamb gets hurt, he runs pure touchdowns, big plays. So for me, the this year's George Pickens is Jaylen Wadd because George Pickens had the same situation where he was going from low volume to high volume, which is exactly what Wadd is doing. And we all know Jaylen Wadd is good. Everybody understands how good Jaylen Wadd's been for a number of years. And if something ran pure with Jaylen Waddle, where Courtland Sutton were to get injured, he could have a dare I say JSN-level season where he's a 35% target share guy. So I think Jaylen Wadd is actually almost even qualified for the JSN moniker, let alone the George Pickens moniker.

I'm not joking. I started this offseason having him in like, I think the mid-four. And as the offseason's went along and I've really studied the situation and I've seen how Shawn Peyton's talked about him and I've seen how team beat reporters have talked about him on top of the fact that you look at what the Broncos offense was last year without Jaylen Wadd.

612 pass attempts with only Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin to throw to.

I'm not even joking you. You guys see I have him second highest on the site and it looks by this that he's probably going to end up on mine and Sammy's team because I completely agree, man. He is the ceiling razor of this offense. And on top of this, why can't he be better than George Pickens was? Like.

That's why I said I think he can be JSN level if things, if Sutton were to deal with injury or something like that, he could dominate like 35% of the targets.

Like he's a universal top 15ish level talent if you ask a lot of people around the league. And there's no CD Lamb. Courtland Sutton, sure, he might catch 850 yards and eight touchdowns. Cool. Be my guy.

He's not Lamb. That's for sure.

He's not [ __ ] CD Lamb. Yeah. So, um, Jaylen Wadd, I mean, three-four turn, I'm totally in. And the fact that his ADP is closer to the four-five turn, sign me the [ __ ] up.

Yeah, he's especially if the round starts with four, the pick that you're getting him, it's an easy pick. Uh, Christian Watson is the guy that you have here. Especially from the like touchdowns and big plays angle, I I think this this really fits the Pickens comp. And also from an ADP lens, Pickens was going more where Watson is going now on casual formats especially, whereas, uh, Wadd is going, you know, like you said, kind of three-four turn area. Pickens wasn't going that high in most leagues.

Exactly. So, I kind of wanted to fill that ADP range obviously with Watson 57 overall ADP. But you go to his career and you see how he finished last year. He's a top 20 receiver in PPR points per game. And as you see, once he was, you know, fully healthy, came into the frame, you have wide receiver six, wide receiver 12, wide receiver six, wide receiver eight. And what was a very up and down finish to the year from the Green Bay Packers. I truthfully do believe with the ongoing investigation with Josh Jacobs, we don't know when he's going to report, but even we if we just assumed he reported in the next couple of weeks, it's an older running back that would have missed time with the team. On top of that, with no Michael Parsons potentially for the first six weeks of the year is the report, first month and a half of the year is about the expectation he's going to be out for. The main drawback we've had with the Packers offense has been passing volume. If all of a sudden we see a 33 to 36 attempt per game start to the year, why can't Watson be a 16-point per game player in that stretch?

Yeah, I, uh, the only thing that holds me back of being more in on Watson is the game environment and situation of the Packers. But like you said, if the Jacobs thing is ongoing and they can't run the ball like crazy and run the slowest, like they are the slowest pace to play offense in football, bar none. So, if they're all of a sudden more uptempo, more pass, uh, heavy, you can get a smash season out of Watson. But like you said, even with the situation of Green Bay currently, he's probably going to like at least return on his ADP at the very least. But again, if they all of a sudden throw 575 times this season like they did with Jordan Love in the 2023 year when, you know, they weren't as effective on the ground. I think Aaron Jones was the starting running back at the time. Still at that point in time, like Christian Watson could crush his ADP and be a 16-point per game receiver.

I think it's very clear at this point, even though he's been banged up, even though he has kind of a stigma, like you look at his career, three of his four years in the NFL, he's been above 2.3 yards per route run. If you're adding more routes to that arsenal, you're adding more deep pass attempts to that arsenal. Again, why can't he be a four and a half reception per game, 75 receiving yard per game, 7 touchdown per game type of guy?

Yeah. And this next guy is very similar to George Pickens in that he was a mid-round receiver who had some concerns and especially with, actually, it's almost a better comparison going Watson to Alave because it's an injury that's kind of leading Watson to be down lower in ADP. But Chris Alave last year really finished with a dominant stretch. Like nobody was better in in the fantasy playoffs at receiver than Chris Alave.

16.5% win rate, 64% playoff rate. He's go he was going late going into the season due to injury mainly. Everybody was worried about the concussions and all that kind of stuff. And he had previous production, we had multiple years that Chris Alave was like a two, three turn pick on underdog for like two or three years leading up to last season. And I think the reason that Chris Alave was able to smash was quarterback upgrade and also, um, the scheme and the offensive coordinator change and and that kind of thing that also helped Chris Alave along with just staying healthy was a big part of it. So who do you got for, uh, for this year's Chris Alave?

Yeah. A guy that dealt with injury last year who has shown objectively to be one of the best young receivers in the league is Brian Thomas Jr., wide receiver 12, 16.71 points per game as a rookie. Um, nearly 1300 yards, 10 touchdowns, 2.55 yards per route run. Like I get it. He is out of sight, out of mind after a wide receiver 47 point per game year. But I've talked about this before, Cory. Wide receiver 12 point per game one year, wide receiver 47 points per game the next year. His ADP is closer to the bottom range of outcome than it is to the objective ceiling we have seen from him in the past. On top of that, we trust the offense. We trust the quarterback. We both know that in any given play on any given week, Brian Thomas Jr. could be the highest scoring wide receiver in fantasy. And as we saw from Chris Alave down the stretch, weeks 15, 16, 17, you told me Brian Thomas Jr. weeks 15, 16, 17 was a 23-point per game type of player. He absolutely has that type of upside, especially for a Jaguars team that might be fighting for a by-week.

You know what's hilarious about this comparison?

27.7 points per game is the average that Chris Alave had. Number two receiver over that stretch, only Puka Nakua was better because he had 30 points per game. How about we go to Brian Thomas Jr. in 2024? What did he do in the fantasy playoffs as a rookie in 2024? No fantasy receiver was better than Brian Thomas Jr.'s. There's 28.2 fantasy points per game. So, I reluctantly gave you Brian Thomas Jr. cuz I was like, "Oh, it's Brian Thomas Jr. He's this year's Chris." But that's the right answer. He is this year's Chris 10,000%.

Yeah. Like, could you imagine if you traded for Brian Thomas Jr. his rookie year in week 10?

Yeah. Insane. Um, so, and also too, another ironic example is that in 2024, Brian Thomas Jr. did this with the second quarterback on the team as well, just like Tyler Shuck came in and and kind of rejuvenated the offense. My answer is a little deeper down the board. Um, for Chris Alave, Michael Pitman Jr., very similar to Chris Alave, has been drafted in the third round of fantasy drafts, you know, early on and just routinely kind of outperforms his ADP when people start to count him out. Like the second you go, Michael Pitman's not worth that price, he he starts to perform. Last year, he was going super late. Before Daniel Jones's injury, he was smashing. He just started to get injured himself down the stretch and they also had Riley Leonard playing quarterback. So things kind of went haywire. But in past years we've seen Michael Pitman smash and I think he's going to lead this team in receiving. I like Mike McCarthy to throw a lot, be uptempo. Aaron Rodgers loves to throw in the red zone. Like I think Michael Pitman is going to benefit huge from Aaron Rodgers. I think he can be like, dare I say, late career Jordy Nelson productive this season.

[ __ ] Uh, that's spicy. Uh, but at the end of the day, I've said it before. I'll say it again. This is one of my favorite unknown offenses to target. It's like, you know, the new kid on the block is going to talk about his fantasy takes and be like, "Oh, the Steelers, this is so boring." Like, you want to trust Aaron Rodgers? You want to trust Mike McCarthy? I mean, Mike McCarthy's gotten fired in his last two spots. Like, sometimes you just got to trust these. Like, these will just do whatever the [ __ ] they want. You don't think Aaron Rodgers is going to check out of a run to throw a slant route to Michael Pitman? You don't think Mike McCarthy is going to run the most 11 personnel in the league? Like this to me is going to be just like the top 12 offense that everybody's like, "Yeah, I guess, but like they're the Steelers."

Not to mention where this comp becomes interesting for me specifically in my dynasty bags is the the the day two quarterback gets in there at the end of the season and lights it up and everybody knows how high I was on Drew Lock. So, I mean, it could it could happen. It could happen. Probably not, but it could happen. Um, anyways, let's move let's try and go a little faster with some of these because they're getting a little bit later round. This year's Travis ETN, very similar to Javonte Williams, mid-round running back, ambiguous backfield. Uh, 2024 season for Travis ETN was the reason he was going so low. He was garbage in 2024. People were sick of him. Everyone thought, you and I unfortunately included, that Baye Shel Tutton was going to take over this backfield or Tank Bixby was going to take over this backfield. But he hit. He hit because he was the best back on the team and one of the best schemes in football for the running back position. You went with the low-hanging fruit of the guy that is replacing him in Baye Shel Tutton.

Yeah. Where do I have him ranked? Can you show the people?

Uh, again, very similar to what you said about Jaylen Wadd. He's probably going to end up on yours and Sammy's team because he is, uh, ranked the highest for the two of you.

Mid-fourth round pick in my rankings right now. Um, and at the end of the day here, it's low-hanging fruit because the fact that Tutton is literally replacing Travis ETN in Liam Con's offense. If we even go more historical, because again, the thesis of this video is just going to go off the fact that what happened in 2025 projecting going into 2026, we want to make the 2025 relevant case, but truthfully, I think the most relevant case for Bashel Tutton and I've talked about this on the channel before is 2024 Chase Brown where it's like, you got the backup day three running back, used kind of sparingly, you know, Chase Brown in his rookie year, 4.1 yards per carry, didn't have the flashiest, you know, advanced metrics because that's that's the thing everybody wants to break up with, too. And it's like, "Oh, this guy was in a finishing as a rookie." It's like, he was in a [ __ ] goal line short yardage role. What did you want from the guy? Like, respectfully, it is a lot different when you're getting four or five carries per game as an explosive big play running back versus 20 carries per game. And we saw that with Chase Brown where he took that next step. He was fighting with Zack Moss, Zack Moss, stinky old jag. Chris Rodriguez, stinky old jag, who by the way, the first day with the [ __ ] team had foot surgery and we're still talking about him being an actual pest in this backfield. I don't know for [ __ ] sakes why. Um, yeah, at the end of the day, we trust Liam Conn. We know they're going to be one of the best rushing offenses in the league. And unless you seriously think Chris Rodriguez is going to take 12 to 14 carries per game, Bashel Tutton will be this year's league winner. Travis ETN was about a 14, 15 point per game running back in the exact same role last year. Even with Tutton taking some of the short yardage looks, I think Tutton, if he's getting that on top of maybe an 18 to 20 opportunity per game type of workload. I mean, how much more buzz do we need from offseason training camp to point to the fact that this guy's taken a significant leap mentally?

Yeah, I, again, I think Tutton because he's replacing ETN, he fits the description. I

I wanted to talk about him. Yeah, I ended up going for the more like ADP relevant example because ETN was going in round seven, round eight, round nine of most people's leagues. I think the answer is twofold. I think the answer is a Denver Broncos running back, whether it's Javonte or Dobbins because Javonte's been left for dead by people like you and I. Can't run the ball, bad rush yards over expected. That was kind of the case with ETN a year ago. And then JK Dobbins because of the whole like, "Oh, he can never stay healthy," etc., etc. But again, the point of ETN and why he hit was one of the best rushing schemes in the NFL. And Shawn Peyton knows how to run the freaking football. So JK Dobbins to me is the best example of what who could be this year's Travis ETN.

The other underrated one I want to say is a Carolina Panthers running back. Whether it's Chuba Hubbard because he's been left for dead by a lot of people including the two of us, or Jonathan Brooks because he's been left for dead by a lot of people who don't want to trust the injury. But for me, JK Dobbins represents the best example of who could be this year's Travis ETN because in all of JK Dobbins' career, I can say definitively he's been a very good running back. He just can't stay on the field. Um, but if he stays on the field, maybe he'll fend off Jonah Coleman, who's kind of like the Baye Shel Tutton, who ironically was right behind Jonah Coleman in in FSE grade in the prospect model. And then maybe he can fend off the the tanks Bixby, which I guess in this case would be R.J. Harvey or vice versa. If it's R.J. Harvey that you believe is the guy. Maybe Dobbins is the Tank Tank Bixby. But anyways, let's move into this year's Javonte Williams. Now, we already talked about Javonte Williams for you being this year's James Cook, but this year's 2025 Javonte Williams was left for dead. People drafted Jaden Blue. I unfortunately have to admit that I was taking Miles Sanders thinking that he could win the backfield, but he's still a he was still a good player. People were sick of him. Injuries, downplay with Denver towards the end of his tenure. Switches teams, primary back on a great team. None better example in my opinion than Rashaad White. Rashaad White switches teams now expected at least so far in training camp to be.

The primary back on his team. And unlike Javvante Williams, we've actually seen a top 10 season from Rashad White in his career prior to that point. So, I think Rashad White for the Commanders could be catching a lot of passes from his former college quarterback. You know, Bill's going to be involved. Kron Allen's a good young player as well, but if Rashad White's the best back on the team, which Devonte Williams was clearly the best back on the team last year, he could end up paying off at a a really high clip for fantasy. Like Rashad White could finish as a top 17 running back in fantasy if things go well for him.

Yeah, I I totally agree with you here. Uh he was also one of the top candidates for me at the end of the day here. He's still going outside of the top 100 underdog. I think that's one of the best values on the board. I truthfully do believe come reddraft season which you guys are drafting in late August, it's probably going to be an eighth round pick.

Yeah, especially like go back to 2023 and 2024 and 2025 when g in games where he gets 15 plus carries. Look how good he was for fantasy in 2023. Obviously he was a workhorse. You go to 2024, okay, he wasn't the starter. Bucky Irving took over. But again, in the games where he was getting volume, six targets, 10 carries, like he's still producing spike weeks, even if it is a committee and Bill is involved, he's not as good as Bucky Irving. Like, there's no way he's going to produce to that level. So, I think that Rashad White is is definitely the clear example of Yeah. eighth, ninth round, ambiguous backfield, formerly productive running back in fantasy and and smashes on a a new team that could be a good offense. To me, it's Rashad White all day.

Yeah. Can he smash like 220 carries for 935 receing yards and then contribute like 45 >> 45 to 55 receptions out of the back field? Yeah.

Um my case is going to be very similar to Javvante where it's like thick running back scoring opportunity for an improved offense from the year prior. And the comp that I want to make here, again, it's not a full one to one because I'm going to have more respect for Aaron Jones than just simply lazily comparing him to Miles Sanders. But for the purpose of the comp, just picture this. Aaron Jones, two of the last three years has been banged up. My Sanders three of the last four years prior to joining the Cowboys was banged up. Exciting day three rookie brought in that's known for his speed, Dean Claybornne, Jaden Blue. On top of that, Vikings offensive line going to be a lot healthier this year. They finally have the quarterback they've been looking for. Uh, you know, that's at least what I've been told in terms of fantasy football-wise. You get Kyler Murray, you upgrade from uh JJ McCarthy, Max Bromer, uh, just the entire grossness that we saw from the Vikings quarterback situation last year. And we have seen in spurts Jordan Mason be a very productive fantasy running back. We saw what it looked like when he took over for McAffrey, got the money from the Vikings last year. The thesis for the Vikings bringing him last year was to be the bully back, was to be the inside the five, inside the 10 back. But when you only have six inside the five carries in a year, it's hard to score a lot of fantasy points if you're a Jordan Mason archetype.

Yeah. And the the Vikings were like a bottom six offense and points per game last year. My only counter is that I agree with the take that it's a Vikings running back. I just think it's Aaron Jones would be my number two answer for uh the Javvante Williams of this year. I have Aaron Jones ranked ahead of Jordan Mason. That is not a consensus opinion by ADP. So, I'm on an island a little bit there. But uh yeah, I think a Vikings running back, whoever you like is a good answer to the this year's Javvante Williams question.

100%. Again, it's just your thought on if Aaron Jones can get back to the level he was in 2024 or if you think 2025 is more of a sign of a decline. And for me, I'm more so on the side that it's a decline and Jordan Mason's a good enough running back to be able to handle 15 to 17 weekly carries.

Yeah. Yeah, for sure. Um, let's go rapid fire here with these last couple. Wandell Robinson last year slot receiver, pass production, benefited greatly from the number one receiver getting hurt obviously, but also quarterback upgrade, very pass heavy team. He ended up being what, wide receiver, 19 or something, 17 in points per game. Um, who could be this year's Wandel Robinson? that late round receiver that ends up maybe coming from the waiverwire for some people or whatever and he ends up being a great option for your flex.

A little bit of a copout here because I think Wandell had more standalone value than the guy I'm going to talk about. But for the purpose of filling the quota of star receiver gets hurt, next guy in line could be a very very productive option. Floreninoi is such a lowhanging fruit for me because at the end of the day I've already talked about it with CD Lamb, top five offensive projection. We expect Dak to throw for 4,500 yards, 30 plus passing touchdowns. And by all accounts, it sounds like Ryan Fluro has been making waves in training camp. Brian Shawheimer is uh specifically requesting him not to do special teams drills because he's going to be an integral part as the wide receiver three in this offense. Sure, when both of those start receivers on the field, you're probably going to get a guy that averages 45 receiving yards per game, 35 receiving yards per game. But like we saw in the isolated spike weeks last year, for example, that Detroit week, what happened in that game?

CD Lamb left early. And as we see, 13 targets, nine receptions, 115 receiving yards, and a receiving touchdown. If you're getting a Ryan Florenoi going into year three improving his game, all of a sudden you have one of the very few true end wide receiver handcuffs in fantasy. You want to take this guy in the last round of your draft and maybe wait out the first month of the year. If Pickkins were to go down, if Lamb were to go down, all of a sudden, you have the clear-cut number one waiverwire pickup. To me, there's very few implied bets better than Ryan Fernoi down the board.

Yeah, it's funny. We're going to talk about this year's Michael Wilson in a second. I actually think he's a better answer for that. Uh Ryan Floreno, I think, because that's Michael Wilson. Harrison goes down, he starts to play better and and Floreno is a year three player. Michael Wilson was a year three player. So that also would make some sense to me. Mine's the easy FSE staple of Travis Hunter. Um because again, >> who would benefit more from wide receiver injuries than Travis Hunter? Obviously, like if if Brian Thomas Jr. went down, if Parker Washington or multiple of these guys go down, Travis Hunter could win people leagues. So to me like the answer to Wel Robinson 2.0 of guy who benefits from wide receiver injury is Travis Hunter. Also an acceptable answer by the way to who's Wandell Robinson 2.0 is Well Robinson who still goes pretty late despite being very productive last year.

Yeah. Um, 100%. I mean 113. Um, these are very very attainable cost especially for uh PPR leagues. I don't mind that at all. Uh we will move on though to this year's Rico Dattle. a guy that was kind of selected in, you know, the 150 or later type of range of your draft was kind of viewed as an afterthought. But as we see from Rico D, man, 14.9% win rate, 70.2% playoff rate. And uh famously, I drafted him in the final round of the Flock League only to drop him going into the season. So big ouch for team lad. That's how you end.

You and I have the worst inseason management of anybody. Like I dropped Kyle Pittz a week before a 50point performance last year. like that. You and I are terrible at inseason management in that league.

So to explain basically how Rico Dattle hit in our eyes. There was a shaky starter in front of him. He played well in Lou when he got his opportunity in 2024 as we know with Rico Dattle, he was coming off of a solid season. He was a starter for the Cowboys and he was like an RB2ish type of player in fantasy. What like we saw from Rico Dattle ended up winning this job in the mid-season portion. You get the RB1 week against Miami, RB2 week against uh the Dallas Cowboys, RB2 week against the Green Bay Packers, and like I said, the qualifier has to be he's drafted in the 140, 150 and beyond range. Your answer here is going to be Shawn Tucker. Obviously, I talked about two Cowboys. It's only fitting they had to talk about Ducks.

Yeah. Again, I think he's more of a contingent play than he is uh if all everybody's healthy play because I do think that Irving or Gainwell or both would have to start to deal with injuries for Tucker to play a significant role. But the one thing you can't say about Shawn Tucker is that when he gets his opportunities, he's bad. Because when he gets his opportunities, like you get 19 carry game against Buffalo was in the stands. He had 34 fantasy points in that game. You give him a 14 carry game against the New Orleans Saints, 34 fantasy points. I think you can argue that he is like one of the best handcuffs in fantasy football this year that no one is talking about.

So >> for me, cuz I think even if Irving were to go down, Gainwell's not the handcuff in my mind. I think that Tucker is the handcuff for the early down work if Bucky Irving went down for significant times. So I think he's one of the more underrated like you know he kind of reminds me of just a little bit >> the Raheem Most 2023 season where everybody was drafting Jeff Wilson super high and that kind of thing and then Mostard and Achan obviously go ballistic and have like the monster season together. So >> I don't know. I think Sean Tucker is one of the the better runners on his team that you can get really late.

Yeah, I don't mind that call either especially at a 185.5 ADP. I went a little higher up. It's Tyrone Tracy, running back of the New York Giants. Uh 134.3 ADP. Like we said, we've seen this guy be a solid running back in each of his first two years. And this is also on the fact that, as we know with Rico Dattle, he started getting more opportunity when the running back ahead of him had lower body injuries. Cam Scataboo was doing back flips after what? Fibula, tibia, the whole [ __ ] nine yards on his leg last year. It's very possible that that injury could reassess itself in season. Week one, week two, week three. Guess what? It is a stress injury. If you put more pressure on an inhibited [ __ ] bone, it could very well rebreak. And as we know with Cam Scataboo, he is uh let's just say not the most conservative. Uh he's quite reckless.

Yeah, that's that's definitely a good way to put it. And I also know that Danny's going to irritate the people who's like, "Why is there so many fbombs in this video?" I know there's been a couple from Danny, so people are going to be mad about that one, but I don't care. So, um, anyways, Tyrone Tracy, yeah, I think >> as far as contingent plays are concerned, we know that if if Scataboo goes down, he's going to get every ounce of work under the sun. Now, the Giants weren't very good last year. So like when Tracy was like a big waiver pickup and people were starting him every single week, he had bad games like against Denver, Philly, San I mean a lot of these defenses are very good against the run. But generally speaking, I think he would be better this year, especially if Malik is out there to help the offense. And you know, I think that the offense in general is going to run a lot. So it wouldn't shock me if he even had like a small standalone role if they don't want to give Cam Scataboo a huge workload. Uh but yeah, those were the two guys that we thought Rico Dattle kind of made mention to there. One thing too, uh, new coaching staff, so very well. Like it could open up where they kind of have to prove their mayor. Like if Scataboo doesn't get off to a hot start. Who's to say that Tracy can't even wrestle like a majority workload away from him?

Yeah, I think that'd be pretty shocking. But that's the doubt case like you said. So Michael Wilson, biggest league winner in fantasy probably of any position last year. Just absolutely ballistic. Like going 15 for 185 in the first game without Marvin Harrison out there is just insane. Large part of that was, you know, increased pass volume. He benefited from the injury of a receiver, new usage. He was moved all over the formation at the X spot, uh, which he had previously not been playing. The other thing that we knew about Michael Wilson going into the season was that he'd be on the field. He was like a two wide receiver set guy for the Arizona Cardinals and specifically an outside wide receiver as well because with the way the NFL is shifting more 12 and 13 personnel, that's something I factored into my answer as well. Tank Dell, Jaden Higgins, everyone assumes is the two wide receiver set receiver. a healthy tank dells better than Jaden Higgins, man. So, and right now as we are recording this, two, three days ago, he was cleared for training camp. And before everybody reacts the way that they've reacted with Malik Neighbors where they're like, "Oh my god, he's out there running routes." It's going to happen with Tank Dell at some point. So, for me, I think Tank Dell ends up being one of the bigger late round receiver hits this year. He's going to be like, "If I had to give you a number one sleeper at receiver right now, he'd be my answer to that question, which is exactly what Michael Wilson was for some people last year." unfortunately wasn't for me uh because I didn't think he was very good, but people who were high on Michael Wilson, film bros liked him. People like Tank Dell and I'm one of those people.

Yeah. Um, I don't mind the Tank Dell show. Realistically, I think the number two receiver is going to end up being a value on the Texans and I think it's more ambiguous than we want to admit. Like Jaden Higgins is the early favorite. You're a Tank Dell guy. I've been drafting the Jaylen Null. Now, unfortunately for my sake, uh he did leave practice early. has a non-foot injury apparently right now.

So hopefully for his sake he can return in the next couple of weeks because um I was quite impressed with the small sample from him last year. I guess theoretically he could also fill this. But yeah, uh if you're a tank Dell guy and you think he can get back up to the pre-injury levels, then a guy that's proven four catches for 65 yards across an 11game stretch going at 193.5. Nice little discount there.

Yeah, absolutely. Um Kahan Booty, young player as well. um would benefit greatly from either Romeo Dobs or AJ Brown going down.

Yeah, in full transparency, I have to move him up my ranks. He was just so deep in the ranks that I didn't actually catch. I had him that low. Um if I had to rerank him now, he would absolutely be within the top 185, 190 in my rankings cuz this was a guy that I expected going into the offseason to be a potential trade candidate. A lot of beat reporters with the Patriots are like, "Oh, maybe he'll end up disgruntled." Uh they bring in AJ Brown, they bring in Romeo Dobs. How does that affect Kahan Booty's morale? And some guys when other guys are brought in, sulk and whine and get upset. You know what other guys do that are considered dogs? They work. They work. They pick up their level of play. By all accounts from the Patriots, Kahan Booty has been their best player, their best offensive player at mini camp thus far. And I truthfully do believe like yeah sure Romeo Dobs AJ Brown probably going to figure into the top two receivers in in on this team. But if Kan Booty can prove that what he was able to do last year when he was healthy, the ability to stretch vertically on the outside, maybe we see more 11 personnel for this team. Maybe we see AJ Brown transition into the big slot as he gets older and all of a sudden you have Drake May dropping 270 passing yards per game and Romeo Dobs being the primary deep threat for that team. On top of that, you mentioned the implied scenario. Marvin Harrison going out last year really impacted and benefited Michael Wilson's target share. If AJ Brown or Romeo Dobs were to miss any time, Kahan Booty would probably be a top 30 receiver in fantasy.

Um, five top 24 weeks last year, same number as Tedo McMillan.

Wow.

Kan Booty. So, I mean, >> like you said, if they go if those guys were to miss time or even if he just outplays Romeo, like Romeo Dob's a good receiver, but it's not like he's anything special. like Kan could out him, out yard him, have more touchdowns than him. Like, yeah, I think Kan's a really good shout there. And also still a very young player, too, which fits the build thing where Michael Wilson was still young that we probably just wrote him off a little too early.

So, if you recall, uh, with the Kahan booty profile, he fell in the draft because of maturity concerns, but based off what I'm hearing from camp, the fact that he's working hard, clearly turning eyeballs, like he was once viewed as a firstround potential wide receiver prospect. If you remember the year he had at LSU, people were putting him up there with some of the best receiver prospects we've seen. In fact, going into the year where Malik Neighbors had his first breakout, Kahan Booty was looked at as the guy.

Yeah. No, not only that, but uh I think in Devi draft, people drafted him.

Yeah. He was like a first round pick. I think people probably took him over like Marvin Harrison.

Yeah. In draft. So if you go back and you look at his college profile, I believe he had a year where he played like six games and he had like 2020 and the co shortened year he dummy Terrace Marshall in in targets. I remember >> 509 yards and nine touchdowns in like seven games.

Yeah. No. Yeah, he could just have matured. Very possible there. Um this year's Alec Pierce.

Uh my answer, Troy Franklin. To be expected. I love me some Troy Franklin. But Alec Pierce was a best guy. And Alec Pierce, by the way, was my highest drafted receiver in fantasy last year on Underdog. On the field, young player, overlooked, very similar to Michael Wilson, actually, a two- wide receiver set guy as well because we were worried a little bit about Josh Downs playing in the slot. Got better, played on a breakout offense, field stretcher. So, for me, Troy Franklin in three wide receiver sets especially, he's going to be out there. Wouldn't shock me if Courtland Sutton, who's in his 30s now, starts dealing with injuries. If we see more Franklin, because as we know, him and him and Bon Knicks played together in college, so I am sure he's going to want him on the field. And I think it's very underrated that he scored, you know, 10.2 fantasy or 10.42 fantasy points per game last season. And very similar to what I just said about uh Kan Booty, one, two, uh two, sorry, three, four, five, top 24 scoring weeks, the same amount as Tedo McMillan last season. So Troy Franklin's proven some some young talent so far. Another honorable mention that I didn't put here that I wanted to was Trey Tucker. I think that he could also be a good Alec Pierce kind of best ball hit.

Yeah, I I like that shout. Um, I'm not as high on Franklin, uh, because I I'm kind of, you know, the Pat Bryant guy, but I do see the upside given what he did last year. Um, with that being said, it's kind of ironic that the player that I'm picking to potentially be this year's Alec Pierce is the guy that Alec Pierce basically replaced, got traded uh, mid-season. By the way, Alec Pierce rendered Adnai Mitchell a backup receiver on the Colts last year. And as much as I love Omar Cooper Jr. in the long term. If you told me that AD Mitchell was the wide receiver too on this team this year, I think that's totally reasonable. On top of that, we've seen the spikes. Three catches for 96 yards. Even if you look later in the year, the wide receiver six overall finished against Atlanta. Wide receiver 14 overall against Jacksonville. And I do think this passing game is going to be much improved. I like the offensive line. Frank Cra, yeah, sure sounds gross on service. At the same time, we've seen some successful passing games. And I'm higher on Gino Smith than you are. I truthfully do believe he can give you top 25ish level quarterback production, which again from Fields and Taylor and all the [ __ ] they dealt with last year is a major improvement. So realistically on top of that, Gino Smith is the type of quarterback that will sit in the pocket that will try to deliver these downfield attempts and AD Mitchell is still 6'3 with 4-3 speed.

I wonder how many receivers had seven games in a row of six or more targets last year. That's how AD Mitchell closed out the season. And like it's hilarious to me that he went one for 10 yards in one of those games, but like you know what I mean? The quarterback play was so disgusting. Again, uh these are late round guys. We don't have to spend too too much time on them. Let's talk about this year's Drake May, Trevor Lawrence as well. You could talk about any late round quarterback hit. Two years ago it was Baker Mayfield. Like this year's Drake May as an example or this year's Trevor Lawrence as an example. Uh, I'll go with Bo Nicks who fits more the Drake May archetype where he was going, you know, early double digit rounds. That's where Drake May was going last year. Bo Knicks been a top 10 quarterback in fantasy points per game in back-to-back seasons. Runs the football. The other thing with both Trevor Lawrence and Drake May is that you got, you know, high pass volume, big arm rushing upside combination. And that's what Bo Knicks represents. He had 612 pass attempts last season. So, and against Jaylen Wadd now. So, I have no idea how he's going. quarterback 13 off the board, quarterback 15 off the board on underdog when he's been better than that in his first two NFL seasons.

Yeah, like I understand it's just like the new thing uh like like oh I I don't want to play with the old toy anymore. I want the new toy and like oh he's coming off the ankle injury. It's like >> a thirdyear quarterback >> outside of uh oh Jackson Dart had an unsustainably high touchdown rate as a runner last year. Can you tell me why Jackson Dart goes ahead of Bon Knicks?

I have him ranked ahead of Bon Knicks or I have him ranked ahead of Jackson Dart straight up.

I do too. Um, I just don't see it like realistically. Bon Knicks, offensive line, check mark. Play caller, check mark. Receiving core overall. Yeah, Neighbor's the best receiver overall. Receiving core overall, Bon Knicks, check mark in terms, way more pass volume.

It just it doesn't make sense to me. It's like I get it like, oh, people are going to point to, well, Jackson Dart's a runner. Yeah, he had a ton of inside the 10 carries, but Cory, everything we've heard from Giants camp is to the point where they don't want him to get hurt. He had concussions last year. He had injuries last year. The entire off seasonason, they're like, "Yeah, maybe we should limit his rushing."

Well, not to mention, uh, five carries a game and 400 rushing yards and five touchdowns is not no rushing production from Bo Knicks. So, that's the other part of this equation that, you know, if you go to Drake May's rushing production, for example, okay, 6.1 carries per game, 450 and four. That's not that far off from what Bo Knicks gave you last year. 83 carries, 356 and five. like in terms of rushing fantasy points per game, he was like a little bit less than Drake May last year

100%. Um Bo Knicks I have as my quarterback 13, so I'm ahead of ADP. And that's >> I am way ahead of ADP on Bonick. Me and Zach are on an island. We're the only ones inside the top 100. You have him at 100. Exactly. But inside the top 100, me and Zach are on an island here with Bon Knicks up there.

Yeah. Like truthfully too, like I have them behind like Mahomes and Perie if you want to just say, "Yeah, I'll take I'll take Nicks over both those guys." Like I'll hear it out.

I have him over Lawrence, dog. I have my QB9.

Oh, I I I can't get there just because I'm so bullish on Lawrence. But I'm uh Yeah, if you can get him around the top 100, like I'm totally reasonable uh in terms of making that pick. And it's kind of why I just like fading quarterback. Like, oh, I'll Yeah, sure. I might get a value at quarterback in round six, but if I push the envelope a little more, like I get having a Jaylen Herz and having a Jaden Jaden Daniels an advantage. Give me like Jaylen Warren and Bo Knicks over Jaylen Herz and [ __ ] Aaron Jones.

If Jaylen Herz had a 90% chance of outscoring Bo Knicks, I would take more Jayen Herz, but there's like a 60% chance he outscores Bon Knicks, which is why I'm taking Bon Knicks. I have Bon Knicks as my QB9. Jaden Daniels is my QB8. It wouldn't shock me in the slightest if Bon Knicks outscored Jaden Daniels. In fact, I actually almost projected it to happen. So, uh, let's talk about the last guy we have here, Cam Ward. more of the Trevor Lawrence archetype because he's going more in the double digit rounds, a little bit further down the board, but um he has a little bit of rushing production himself. Not a ton last year, 159 and and two touchdowns, but he was also dealing with some injuries as well.

Yeah. And uh on top of that, it's just the the flexibility and the comfort in the new scheme. You have Brian Dball coming over from the Giants on top >> pass volume going up.

Pass volume going up. Uh kind of Brian Dball would be the comparison now to when Liam Con was coming in for Trevor Lawrence last year. The team spends the fourth overall pick on a number one receiver. And like we see like we do, even though he's not the most mobile quarterback, you still have a 33 yard rushing game, a 37 yard rushing game, 22, couple rushing touchdowns. Maybe we just see his overall workload expanded going into year two. He showed the flashes and that's all we can really expect from rookie quarterbacks. Not every rookie quarterback is going to be Jaden Daniels. Prime example, how was Drake May as a rookie?

Well, and think of the Drake May example as well. Drake May's offense this year added Romeo Dobs and AJ Brown. Last year they added Stefon Diggs and you know some other ancillary pieces. Cam Ward was throwing to Elkio Manor, Shamira DK and Calvin Ridley last year. Now he's throwing to Wandell Robinson Carell Tate. Still Calvin Ridley apparently and the same two guys but they're the fourth and fifth receiver instead of the one and two.

Yeah. Like for reference if we're looking back at Drake May in his rookie season, what do we have here? 15 passing touchdowns, 2,200 passing yards, and uh oh, he ran the ball more. I'll give him credit. 54 carries, 421s uh 421 yards, and two touchdowns. But the point remains, he was the quarterback 22 in fantasy. Like, you're drafting Cam Word as the quarterback 22 off the board this year.

Not to mention, Drake May left the Jets game early. also like anytime he finished and started a game. I think we had the stat last year he was like a QB1 in every uh like if you just take the games that he started uh he was a QB1 in those games. So yeah, uh Cam Ward definitely a good shout. I'm getting a little higher on him. I like from watching the quarterback Doc I think I like kind of the way he's made too like his his mindset towards everything and I think the offense more importantly is going to throw the ball more with better receivers. And Calvin really got hurt. DK and I Maner were rookies and day three rookies at that and Cam Ward's got a first top five pick receiver, a guy who had 140 targets last year in Well Robinson and Calvin Ridley is his third best receiver now who wasn't even on the field for the majority of the season.

And adding to it, um, this is a 2024 comparison. I think rookie year Carnell Tate can be like rookie year Brian Thomas Jr. makes a lot of sense how we get there.

Yeah. So those are our this year's blank. the late round smashes, the early round smashes that look awfully familiar to us, the league winners that we've seen before because we're using the road map of why those guys were going where they were going last year and kind of painting the picture onto the 2026 crop of ADP. So, if you guys enjoyed this exercise, I mean, some of it's for fun, some of it's actually you can make real comparisons for like my favorite one for sure is I think Kirn James Cook is my favorite one. I think he's like a perfect replica of James Cook last year. Yeah, if I had to go through my my my pure favorite one, like if I'm looking through this right now, I mean, if we're just talking about player, obviously Baltial Tune to ETN, but truthfully, like this video really opened me up to wanting to take more Christian Watson. Like the guy's been over 2.3 yards per run in all but one of his seasons. And that was kind of the stigma with with George Pickins where it's like, oh, maybe the production hadn't fully been there with Pittsburgh. But you look at the per route metrics, you look at the big plays, and then you project the situation getting better. Obviously, for Pickkins, it was going to Dallas. For a guy like Christian Watson, it could just be more passing volume.

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