Transcription
Bitcoin has finally reached the target we saw together. We will talk about it today. Also, we will talk about outflows on the ETFs. It's quite interesting. Things are happening. We will do an analysis of Ethereum and also a small point on fundings. Just before starting, I remind you that our algorithm service is still available. + 8.04% for the SPT algos last week and 31 TP on the LIM algorithms. Once again, these algos are accessible to everyone. It's the first link in the pinned comment to access them. It brings you to this page. You just have to register on Bitgate, our partner link, by clicking on this second link right here. We do the little verification. Hop, like this. You just then have to click on register, making sure to click here, otherwise it won't work. And once that's done, you just have to create your account. And then, I made you a little video which is right here. It's the third link which explains absolutely everything about how to retrieve your access, the algos, the mentorship, etc. Mentorship is my complete training. The VIP Alcoin is where I will share the best opportunities on Altcoins in the crypto market here with the VIP crypto. And I made you a small form that I will put in the pinned comment and in the description. It's just to know which platform you use the most, to know on which platform we could possibly make the algos available as well. So don't hesitate, the more answers there are, the more it would allow us to refine all of this. So you choose the platforms on which you trade, you click on send, and I will look at all of that. Thank you very much to those who play along, it helps me enormously.
So to come back to BTC, so here I am on the CME futures. We can see that we have come to recover the stops of the identified target, which was nothing more nor less than the low of July with here the low of September because there is a small FVG right here. So this is the zone for me that the market wanted to work on. In any case, that was the bias we had. We got there. Which allowed us to rework the wick here. Almost exactly on the median threshold. It's missing very little right here. And so the question is, well, is the bottom in? Well no, for now it's too early to say bottom, but in any case it's a good zone to have at least, well we're not sure, but it's a good zone to be able to trigger a rebound. After that, to really mark our bottom. Well, we'll have to see a bit more development in terms of price action. For example, if we look here on 1 minute, there's not much yet on Bitcoin, huh. That is to say that here, well, we have a BTC rebound that comes to rework its last FVG right here. Especially its last FVG. So, I don't think we've tagged it yet, huh. So, it's a zone we could wait for. Breaking it will be bearish, it could be a first good signal to perhaps mark a more significant rebound. We can see that on the CME. So, I'm going to come here right here. Now, so on the CME, you see, it's very clean. There was the FVG tag compared to the Perp market. But on the other hand, the thing is that yesterday the indices were rejected in the zone and that's not good. For those who watch the macro reviews, I talked about it, the previous daily high right here in the FVG. Unfortunately, it's marking a reversal. There is a change in the price structure right here. And the indices, well I don't know if it will be too much the case because they are very surprising. It happens that there are bearish signals and then suddenly boom it explodes because well, they are American indices. But here in any case we have reversal signals on the indices. That is to say that theoretically the indices have finished working their FVG. We see that the NASDAQ has filled it 100% and that a rejection has occurred. Here we clearly see the rejection numerous times with these wicks and it is perhaps triggering a second bearish leg. This is what triggered outflows on Bitcoin yesterday. We can see that there were minus 530 million. That is to say that as soon as the indices even move a little downwards here, immediately institutional investors are in a hurry to sell their Bitcoin. So we really see that if the indices weaken, BTC is sold immediately. It's normal, Bitcoin is a risky asset. We immediately de-risk risky assets. And so, well, in a portfolio, we first sell everything that is, in quotes, the riskiest. And Bitcoin, for institutional investors, is a riskier asset than American indices, obviously. So here, we can see that there are outflows, to be seen if it will continue. This is what creates this bearish pressure, because we see that yesterday as soon as the indices started to go down, well Bitcoin went to seek its targets and in fact it even started to go down a little before. You see here, as soon as there was this red candle, boom, we sent it down directly on BTC to go seek the target. And so, we will really have to observe American indices carefully. So here, it's good, we have reached a good zone, we have reached a daily low, it initiated a rebound but it does not reverse the dynamic on the Nasdaq. And so if the Nasdaq continues to push lower, theoretically that's the case as long as it doesn't break the orange zone, sorry red here, the daily FVG zone, there are really chances of returning to the lows, of making a second leg, and if we go into a second leg, it will drag the crypto market. What we observe is this price zone, the FVG zone simply. If we were to lose this FVG zone on the CME, the next point of interest is the low of June at $102,000 and so there, it would be the retest of the entire wick almost right here. OK. Retest the entire wick. So, I don't know if we'll retest the entire wick again, it's just that for the moment, well, it's a bearish dynamic and there are no signs of recovery for now. I say for now because a good level has been reached. We just need to see if the indices will take us lower or not. If that's the case, yes, it will put pressure on BTC.
On the funding side, there is quite a bit of negative funding, so that could justify a short squeeze, but for now the market is not triggering this short squeeze because precisely there is significant selling pressure on the ETFs right here as I showed you. And then we will be able to make the little transition to Ethereum. So just before, I remind you once again that it is crucial for Bitcoin not to break the order block here. We are in contact with this order block. It would be crucial not to have a breaker block because if we have a breaker block, it could be the signal of our bearish fourth quarter. And here, I'm not talking about a bear market, I made a video about it yesterday. We would be talking, in my opinion, in any case, more about a bearish swing with targets like $98,000, or this weekly FVG, or at worst the low of 2025. But for me, we won't go much lower than that if there's a bearish swing as I explained in my video yesterday since production costs are around here. So I would be very surprised if we go below production costs. Of course, there are much lower production costs, notably Riot and Mara, who had recently released reports and were mining at $35,000, $40,000, $45,000, I believe, but these are really the top-notch facilities. On average, the production cost is really somewhere around here. And to come back to ETH, we will start with the ETFs. So I haven't spoiled myself, I haven't looked at all. I don't know what happened with ETH. It has a little less outflow, minus $56 million. To be seen if it will start today or not. We can see that so, perhaps ETH has this vision of seeing it a little like silver potentially. The question is when will silver top? And we can say that we can say that silver will still push. OK. To go seek precisely the high, the all-time high. And then once we have reached the historical high for silver, it can start to mark a reversal. The historical high for silver. So I am on adjusted contracts as usual for those who are wondering "Yes, you are on CME or COMEX, why don't we have the same chart? Because I am on adjusted contracts, so it takes all the contracts historically, simply." And so here we can see that ETH is at 58.42. So I think silver still has room to go and that's perhaps why you have an Ethereum that perhaps doesn't suffer too many outflows. After, I consider it more as risky, personally, but well, it's interesting to note that yesterday Bitcoin took minus 500 million and ETH didn't take that much. And so, from a price action point of view, what does that give? So, we'll go on Binance but we'll also go on Futures here. And so, we can see that simply we came to purge the stops. We were talking about it on the CME, we didn't come to purge the stops, we risk going there. This is exactly what we had. You see, the little liquidity grab, very clean in this FVG zone always. So, this is still an interesting zone. For me, ETH is in a zone where it can possibly try to mark its bottom. Also, it came to hunt the stops here from Tuesday's candle. It filled its FVG. And what needs to be observed is whether it will break its FVG or not. If it maintains its daily fair value gap, well, in fact, there's a good combo. There's Bitcoin in a good zone to mark a bottom. It's just that for now it's not visible and the risk is that the indices start to accelerate south. If the indices accelerate south, I think Bitcoin will follow in any case. But if the indices don't accelerate south, we are in a very good zone on BTC to initiate a rebound, or potentially mark a bottom. I'm not saying it will be the case, it's just factually true from a futures perspective and on ETH, it's the same thing. That is to say that, here, we came to take the stops, we came to calmly fill our FVGs right here. You see, there's only this FVG left in daily, huh. So here, the price is working this FVG, it came to recover the stops. It's a good zone to try to mark a bottom. It's just that as I told you just now, even on Ethereum, it's not visible. There are not necessarily any bottom signs here. We see that it's just a simple rebound for now. 3H4, we have no, not even. So you see, as long as we rework this fair value gap and don't break it, there's a higher chance of a bearish continuation on H4. Watch this drop candle here on ETH, on the spot where the perp is placed, the same thing. You can see that we are working the daily FVG. If we break it, expect more to come deliver the weekend low, so $3640, or even last week's low, $3400 with perhaps a touch also here of the stops that were not taken below $3350, but this is the fair value gap, you see that we respected the bearish fair value gap. If that's the case, there's really a way to have a second bearish leg. So a second bearish leg which could also have AB=CD objectives, but that's quite low, it's below $3000. I'm not saying we won't go there, it's just that, well, we are at 3009, we won't talk about 3000 now, but there you go, these are also objectives you can have in mind only if we break this daily FVG. So we are at key levels on Bitcoin, the weekly order block, we took the stops on the CME. Excellent zone to mark a rebound and move on. If there is an acceleration on the indices, there will probably be the breaker block on Bitcoin and then that changes things because it can make us enter, not necessarily, but it would greatly increase the chances of us entering a bearish swing for Q4 because as we discussed and I will close on this today, I like to look at what happens at the beginning of a quarter and the fact that we have come to recover the stops from the previous quarter and that there is this displacement, it potentially marks the inversion and a bearish fourth quarter of the year. Exactly what we had here. The same thing, that is to say that we had the second quarter. So the second quarter started on April 1st, we rushed to take the stops from the previous quarter and then there was the breaker block marking the inversion. The second quarter of the year was bullish, the third quarter of the year was bullish, and for now the fourth quarter looks more like a liquidity grab and a reversal. So in fact, the opposite of what we did here, this was bullish, this is potentially bearish if we form the breaker block, so if we settle below $107,000, that would mark the reversal. Now the sentiment is really pessimistic, we see it in terms of funding. So it could be the moment to react well, but for that, we need indices that hold up. If the indices don't hold up, if they launch a second leg because they were rejected in the daily fair value gap, well Bitcoin will unfortunately follow this second leg. This is what needs to be understood well. We are at the mercy of American indices, we saw it directly as soon as BTC, as soon as the indices dropped very slightly, boom, we had minus 500 million outflows on Bitcoin. So this proves very well that, well, we are watching with attention what is happening on the institutional side. If they dump their bags on the indices, well they will also dump their bags on Bitcoin, which is completely normal. The objective for them will of course be to buy back lower. I don't think they will exit Bitcoin forever, but probably on lower risk zones, so retracements, simply. Also at a key level to watch is the first stop of our entire movement here and I think we are right on it. Yes. 382 here. You see, so this is the first stop since our April bottom at 106,000. So that's why it's a key level since there's the weekly order block and the 382. If it breaks, you know the rule, very often it's the reloading zone that can be reached. So here it would be reworking this zone approximately between $93,000 and $85,000. Of course, we won't go there in a straight line, huh. You can very well break the first stop, make big rebounds like that before going there. Anyway, anything can happen. It's just that it would further increase the probabilities of confirming that we are indeed in a bearish swing and that Q4 will not be bullish. I'll stop here. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to bombard the blue thumbs up, subscribe, leave a little comment. Thank you very much to those who play along. I remind you, please don't hesitate to fill out the form, it takes you 10 seconds, it's free as usual. There's nothing to pay here. It will just help me to see if we can deploy the algos on other platforms if, well, you're interested, simply. Also, for those who want to train with me, you have access. First link in the pinned comment, there is my trading school. It's the only paid subscription I offer. 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