Transcription
Hey man, how are you?
I'm doing well, thank you. How are you?
Good, man. Good. Um, did you see the the breaking news or I'm the man that will break it to you?
Uh, there's been there's been quite a bit of breaking news. Which is the latest?
No, this is the breaking news with capital TH. Then I I wait in baited breath for YouTube.
Um so according to the New York Time No, that's not the one. Um the the big one that's just happened is we'll go to the other one afterwards. The one about I'm sure you've seen that one. Israel was apparently or the US was worried Israel was about to assassinate Galibah Narachi.
That's you probably saw that one. Yeah. Which is [ __ ] wild. Um we'll talk about that in a bit. But the one that just came in that I think is more consequential even though the other one's more dramatic. According to the Wall Street Journal, the US offered Iran a proposal to re So there's a proposal been made in the Qatari negotiations uh to release frozen funds in exchange for Iran fully opening the straight of Homo without any fees and Iran has rejected the proposal um unsurprisingly. But um the reason this worries me is I've just had many guests tell me that especially in the last four days that if the US does not accept to open up the Strait of Hummus, I'll rephrase that. If Iran does not accept not to charge a fee in the Straight of Hummus, then the US has no choice but to go back to war. And we've just seen that deadlock play out on a small scale just now. Uh which worries me on whether we're um you know the war is becoming more the continuation of the war is becoming more and more inevitable. I'd love to get your thoughts on this uh new development.
Well the um that development is new. I predicted that that would likely be the case based on the discussions between third-party indirect discussions in Qatar where the United States and Iran were not talking with each other but basically proposing things through Qatar through Pakistan to be delivered to each other. Uh it was it was apparent to me that that was not going to yield any tangible results. And continuing to offer uh for the United States to continue to offer uh the same conditions just wrapped in different language or wrapped in different wrapping paper. Iran is still going to reject that because Iran is not compelled nor leveraged by the United States to capitulate to any of those demands of a change of condition. Uh so not surprising to that. The the more recent breaking news that I think is even more concerning based on the war footing of the United States is that the United States has now redeployed reordered and redeployed the USS Boxer which is the Wasp class amphibious carrier. The USS Boxer was there before at the height of Epic Fury when we had pretty much um every asset available in theater. Uh, and the USS Boxer came left um right around the time of Project Freedom. Uh, but now the USS Boxer has been redeployed with a with a fresh rotation of amphibious marines from the amphibious readiness group, the ARG. Uh, we still have upwards of 50,000 troops in the region. We still have um the uh the the carriers that have that are there that are now where uh during this dividend of of peace negotiations. There's been uh resupply and there's been rotation of sailors and soldiers in that out of the region. Uh new fresh deployments from Fort Bragg, North Carolina to replace the brigade of the 82nd Airborne Division that was already there, but you got fresh troops in now. Uh so looking at that war footing and in in with the context of the talks yielding nothing going going nowhere and remember we're we're we're so far down the road missing the exit on this this this highway to the [ __ ] show that the theou discussion that's that's so far in off the off the table right now. We're just talking about technical discussions regarding the straight kmoose and frozen assets to where we can't even get talks going on that. So, we're much closer to war than we are to negotiations right now. And I think that that when we look at the already um attempts by Israel to assassinate um Pakistani interlocutors and negotiators and others, uh we're we're two days away from uh the Ayatollah's funeral procession week, the 4th through the 9th of July. Uh, and it is it is not only not beyond Israel to assassinate someone during a funeral, it's pretty much their their MMO. I mean just just in the last 10 years, Israel has conducted strikes to take out figures of either Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis uh in also in Syria um to assassinate during funerals actually during funeral processions in Malaysia, Tunisia, Gaza, the West Bank, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and just in April of this year, April of 2026 they struck a funeral procession in the Becca Valley to to go after Hespa leadership and killed 10 people. So assassinating
Yes, they've actually they've actually partaken in in a an assassination uh in Malaysia uh and and also in in Tunisia. That's freaking wild.
What?
It's like I was one thing I was contemplating.
Yeah. I I was thinking like in the last few days I'm like would you kill Mushta if he shows up to the funeral this weekend? I'm like like I I know they they take risks and they know they're kind of they can wild at times but they won't do that. Especially not when Medved is there and and senior diplomats from different countries, leaders of different countries attend the funeral processions. They're not going to kill Mushabaka Kame during those processions. That's that's a step too far. But then you mention all the examples that you've just said right now. I didn't know there was that many countries. I know there was in Lebanon uh funeral processions. That's it. Probably in Gaza. I can always I can always I would always guess same thing happens in Gaza, but that will be it. I didn't know that many countries.
They went after Khalil al-Wazir uh in Malaysia. He was one of the uh early founders of the Palestinian Liber liberation organization. Uh he had left the region and gone to Tunisia and they assassinated him there.
So um when you consider now the the calculus for such an act um is is a lot riskier considering who's going to be attending these processions. Remember this is this is a week long of various ceremonies, processions, uh memorializations, um marches, you know, etc. It's not just one big event. Now July 9th, the actual funeral, if you will, like for example, the the 4th through the 8th is more like a a nationwide wake, like if you would consider in a an Irish Catholic funeral, right? You have a wake and then, you know, when you have the actual funeral itself. So um there's proceedings before July 9th is the actual ceremonial official funeral in in in in the tradition um of the Muslim faith. Now a lot can happen between then and there to where there could be opportunities depending on um who is where at the time. Now, would they strike the actual procession on the 9th of July where we know that that Russian officials will be there and other world leaders Iraq has as has members that has people that are going uh to this procession in Iran. So, would they necessarily strike it then? Likely not. I wouldn't I still wouldn't take it uh out of the picture, but likely not. But in the days preceding at various opportunities to where uh there's there's only Iranian leaders or maybe only an IRGC representation or there's uh a certain individual is isolated, would they take the would they take that strike? They absolutely would because remember Israel can yield assassination attempts without necessarily having to blow something up. So, um, it
someone Yeah, someone made that point to me. They're like, Mario, they're not going to blow I think it's Larry Johnson yesterday. He's like, "Mario, they're not going to blow up." I think it was in blow it up when there's other leaders there. I'm like, you know, it doesn't have to be a bomb from a fighter jet. Could be a sniper. You know, remember once I had a machine gun out of a car to kill one of the scientists a few years ago,
it could be
it could be very it could be various other other means. It could be uh it could be a a um a a wireless microphone on someone's shirt. It could be um it could be it could be
someone's inspired I know someone's inspired by Charlie Kirk's assassination. And number two, you keep giving them ideas. I'm sure they're listening. All I'm sure when it comes to assassination, Israel has has thought of things that that not even the most uh epic uh novelist could think of.
TNT packed butterfly. It's Israel.
But then but then the other aspect is that if we recall a couple years ago, it actually a year and a half ago uh when Iran struck the IRGC uh when the IRGC when the IRGC was hosting um representatives in Iran. Uh there's there's another weapon out there. It's it's the it's the Hellfire missile, but it's been modified. It's the It's the RQ. It's the R9N variant to where it doesn't explode. It fires and the kinetic energy flips out these eight Ginsu knives like blades and it penetrates with the force of a Hellfire missile, but then pretty much shreds everything within. And there's zero explosion. In fact, you can see
I know which one. That's the one that goes uh it's the missile. It can even it can even kill someone in a car on on a seat. Someone sitting next to him would be intact.
Would be intact, non-touched with maybe just some just a little bit of blood on them. So, they've used that before. It's the United States weapon. We used it. I've I've I've actually been on the calling end of of calling for one being used uh during operations. So, I've seen how they're used. Uh they're they're they're silent. They do not explode. They don't detonate. you know, kill everyone within. They they're very specific uh to the point you made, you can put it through the roof of a car and kill the driver and not the passenger. So, are are there options such as that? There there are they have those capabilities. Are there options for uh a you know, a traditional what we would think of an assassination attempt like someone, you know, a sniper, etc. So, an assassination
I want to show I want to show the video, by the way, of the one you've just talked about. It's wild. For anyone listening not looking at your screen, highly recommend you check your screen. Look at this technology. It's It's gruesome. It this video is not gruesome, but if you can imagine what it does, it will be gruesome. But that's the the missile here. There it is. So, it gets fired. Blade hellfire. So, it's just a missile. Does not explode. And then you obviously could it could aim with the camera. They could play with the audio actually. Can you play with audio? You have to start it again. Yeah. do it with audio. It's worth it.
Yeah.
It's freaking terrifying, Anthony.
Yeah. And this is this is this is even um uh older technology. This has even been around for a while. The United States developed it.
Fire missile is launched. It can accurately track the target by relying on the laser guidance system on the front of the warhead. Unlike traditional missiles, the blade bomb does not carry explosives, but has six sharp blades hidden in its waist when approaching the target. The six-folded blades can be quickly ejected by high pressure gas and then fall vertically at extremely high speeds. At the same time, the high-speed rotating blade can easily cut through metal and concrete. And since the missile will not explode after hitting the target, it focuses on precision and can even target specific targets guided by lasers.
That's crazy.
When the blade
That's crazy. That's crazy.
Yeah. And Israel absolutely possesses that weapon. They have they have used it in in in in recent times and in fact in striking a target in in Iran. There's I think if someone would could look it up there, you could see the uh where the where this this uh this um hellfire the the ninja hellfire went through the the side of the building.
G is that the GU knife missile. Is that it?
That's what they call it. They call it they call it the Ginsu hellfire.
That's crazy. Uh but you can see through the the side of the wall uh where it penetrated into the wall and you can see this this small circle which is the uh the the carrier of the hellfire again without explosive in it. Uh and then the you could see the six lines, the six blades penetrating the side of the wall uh perfectly with with precise accuracy, killing the one occupant inside this small apartment uh to where the uh the occupants in the neighboring apartments didn't even know it happened. So
that's insane.
Could you have some type of assassination attempt where collateral damage is minimized? You absolutely could. Uh, could Israel do something like that? Yes. One, it sends a pretty stark message if Israel does this during a funeral procession with other world leaders, that Israel can do this with the technology that they have and that they're audacious enough to do it. Uh and then obviously the the fallout from that would be uh monumental to where it would plunge us into a whole new uh type of war. Uh not just between the United States and Iran with Israel involved, but the entire region.
Look how it goes through the
Yeah. You see that? That's that's what I That's exactly what I'm talking about.
You can see the blade marks.
Stephanie, can you click on the one? Yeah, this one. Click on that one. And it will expand the image. It doesn't. All good. But yeah, it's freaking wild, man. That's crazy.
Yeah. And there's no explosive in that. It doesn't blow up. It doesn't destroy everything around it. Uh there isn't fire. Uh it it's it's uh it's surgically precise. So, when you consider the menu of options that Israel has at its disposal to assassinate, it doesn't always mean some big bomb or a missile or a big explosion. Uh it could be something as simple as your traditional uh guy on a motorcycle attempt. They they've done that before. They've done that in in the West Bank before. Uh or it could be something um as as uh precise as as the the Ginsu Hellfire. So you see with the options available and the the
and I think there's a highrisisk.
Yeah. And um I'm going to show you an image now. The producer Stephanie will show you an image now of Ahmed Vahidi. He's a brigade general. He's one of the I don't know if he's the right-hand man of Mushtaba Kam, but one of the most senior people in the IRGC. And he was seen in public for the first time since the war at the uh at the uh ceremony the what do they call it first farewell ceremony of Ayatal Kam. This is him there. So uh it's going to be a risky few days. It's going to be a very risky few days. Do you think Mustaba will show up?
Um I if if there isn't anything in terms of heightened security risk or attempts before the 9th um I I think that during the the proceedings or the procession the kind of the uh small group farewell that was one of them has already occurred but uh shortly right after his death but the certainly on the 9th of July uh it's because it's not only a uh the the ceremony for the the burial of his father but it's also very important in the in Islamic ritual in terms of funeral procession uh for the burial um on that day and where it will be taking place. It's so I I could see that he he will he will likely appear or show up which is obviously the most heightened of time. Um so it's just a matter of uh the opportunity is there, the capability is there, the desire is there. Uh, so it's going to be very risky.
Nathan, let's read the story of what we were talking about earlier because people haven't read it. So the New York Times um reported earlier today, not a couple hours ago, the US reportedly feared during the nuclear negotiations, not during the war, during the actual freaking negotiations with Iran in April, three months ago, that Israel was planning to assassinate Iranian Parliament Speaker Galibbah and Foreign Minister Arachi. the two faces of the peace deal in an attempt to derail the talks.
Yeah.
The report says Washington asked several countries to warrant tanran. They couldn't stop. Like this is crazy. They can't even stop freaking Iran. Uh Israel. So they have to warn Iran because they cannot hold off Israel. That's just so crazy. This is so so freaking weird. The report says Washington asked several countries to warn Thran while Iran sought guarantees through Pakistani and Qatari mediators that his delegation would not be targeted. Galibb's plane later made an emergency landing in Mashad. Mashad is where? Mashad. Do you know?
Uh Mashad I think it's um
it's in it's in Iran. It's uh
it's kind of a
Yeah, it's in Iran.
Yeah. I I want to say to the
Yeah.
Uh so he made an
emergency. So if they were depending on where he was going or coming from uh but that would have obviously been an emergency situation to get back in land because perhaps there was a threat to shoot down his aircraft.
Yeah. It's weird what would be up north there by the by the Turk Menistan border.
Turk Menistan border. Yeah. Um, so he made an emergency meeting in in MSAD after Iranian intelligence warned of a possible Israeli attack and three senior Iranian officials said he also narrowly survived Israeli strikes during both the June war last year and the recent war uh a few months ago.
Iran adopted additional security measures during this spring's negotiations with the US to reduce the risk of Israeli strikes against the senior Iranian officials. New York Time reports, quote, in April, Galibbath has been scheduled to travel to Islamabad for a meeting with Vance, but Iran, that's the first meeting that happened, but Iranian security officials feel feared Israel could use the visit to assassinate Galibbah or Arachi in an effort to derail the negotiations. Pakistani fighter jets escorted the Iranian delegations aircraft carrying more than 70 Iranian officials between the Iranian border and Islamabad. On the return flight, Iranian security services warned of intelligence that Israel planned to strike the plane and that two Israeli fighter jets had entered Iranian airspace from the Iraqi border. The aircraft made an emergency landing in Msad and the delegation traveled the remaining eight hours by road to Thran, man.
Yeah. And then so when when as the United States, any attempts that you make to try to negotiate or broker peace, uh there's always the very likely high and present risk that your your your number one ally, as as some Americans would say, is trying to assassinate the the other side. But the thing is, we've this this shouldn't be a surprise to anybody at this point. They did it against kamas negotiators in Qatar, violating Qatari. Uh, and that's another uh another one to add to the list that I mentioned yesterday with Malaysia, Tunisia, Gaza, the West Banks, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, add Qatar to that. Uh, so when you look at assassination attempts or assassinations, um, Israel, Israel has has no issue, no restraint in doing it. So does it put this period of procession when you know if if talks had been left going into the Iranian negotiator saying hey uh we're not only is this a deadlock we're we're breaking for the next 5 days because we're going to be back in Iran. So even if that ended with some type of good negotiation or positive negotiation or steps forward uh Iran still or Israel would still attempt likely to assassinate key figures. But now this this negotiation has left on on a on a bad note, a sour taste where where the the parties involved are leaving where there there's there's drama, there's anger, there's friction. Uh so could Israel take advantage of that uh to in the political environment to do something to then say, "Hey, hey, hey, America, we took care of your problem for you." Because you're right, the United States no longer can restrain Israel. So we have to do things like warn warn other nations, warn Iran, warn Pakistan that hey
that's insane.
We have we have credible intelligence that Israel is going to assassinate and take out one of your people. Land your plane and get out of the airplane because it looks like they're going to try to shoot it down. So
yeah. Yeah. It's
like if you can't get security if you can't get security gu like no wonder the Iranians don't trust anything that's coming out of these negotiations. If the Americans cannot give you a security guarantee who can
you know the United States cannot give you a security guarantee and what what the United States has also shown is that we will uh we will play games reindeer games if you will with the certain verbiage of things. uh we'll we'll ask for uh you know you you put up your end of the bargain uh we'll get to ours later the whole you know point number one of theou right uh permanently and immediately and permanently cease war on all fronts to include Lebanon and leave and then through that we're like hey open up the straight u we'll think about giving you your money back and uh stop doing this and uh we'll we'll get to that but you need to do your part first and Iran is like no that's that's not how it works the straighter Hamus we can restrict it we can open it we can close it like that I mean just look at the uh uh the the the number of Saudi tankers that have gone through the kamoose in just the last 24 hours so Iran has the ability to open close restrict reduce uh the traffic through the kamoose at will so they've shown that they can do that why would they give up their leverage on the table when the United States visa v Israel have not come to the table with with one thing yet? We're still talking about these these frozen assets that haven't been unfrozen. are still talking about uh the the technicalities in the straight of her when in reality when in reality if you look at every other strategic waterway straight or canal in the world uh the the nations therein have some type of administrative control of that waterway.
Yeah.
So
um why not
let me let me let me ask you about the military buildup you talked about. Let me get the article up. So you talked about the the boxer, I think it was called.
The USS Boxer is an amphibious amphibious ready group joined the US Navy forces in the Middle East this week as Trump weighs military options amid uncertain peace talks with Iran. The amphibious assault ship USS Boxer and the amphibious transport dock ship USS Portland with uh with the embarked seven 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit. We're transiting the Indian Ocean on Tuesday. According to Sentcom.
They're there now. transport.
They've just arrived. Yeah. The the So, this article is when one I'm reading is from July 1. That's two days ago. Um, Boxer's arrival puts at least 24 Navy ship warships, including the aircraft carriers Lincoln and Bush and 15 destroyers in the Middle East. That's a lot.
And that that's just that's just the big ships on the board of of you know, remember the old game battleship, right? you got the, you know, your submarine, your carrier, your destroyer, your frigot, you know, but there's all the other associated ships like the like the latoral combat ships that are part of the carrier strike group that that aren't listed in that big 24, but uh they're there as well. The USS Peralta as an example. Uh but then you have all of the um the the guided missile ships. Let's not also forget uh that there are two Ohio class submarines in the region. There's one in the Indian Ocean and there's one in the Mediterranean, the USS Alaska. The Ohio class uh can fire upwards of of I think um 50 tomahawks on board. I mean, if you've seen the the USS Ohio class, which the USS Alaska is one, if you've seen that thing surfaced with its bomb bays open, I mean, the entire thing is just like a floating missile launcher. Uh but in addition to the tomahawks and other cruise missile capabilities that these uh submarines can fire uh they also have the ability to equip any of all of those with the trident 2 nuclear uh capable missile. So basically they have the ability to nuclearize because they have the nuclear warheads on board. These submarines, part of the nuclear triad, air, land, and sea, always have this nuclear capability because in a time of war or in a time of, hey, launch the nukes, you can't have a submarine coming back to port to load them or coming to surface to get them. They have to have them ready at all times. So, they are. So, in addition to all those ships you just mentioned, you also have two nuclear capable fully loaded with Trident missiles and Tomahawk submarines both in the Mediterranean and in the northern Indian Ocean. So there's that. You also have the Special Operations Command mission command vessel, the MCV, uh that is that is um ported in Diego Garcia, uh ready to provide command and control for separate special operations missions within Central Command. But then with the arrival now of the USS Boxer with the 11th Marine Expeditionary or with the 11th Marine amphibious group, it was the fifth. So the fifth goes back, they refit. You got a new amphibious assault group, you got a new crew, you got a new group of Marines ready to go. They spent the whole previous months just training, training, and training for this. Now they're in addition to the amphibious assault ship capability, which has the uh when you see those uh those amphibious vessels go from ship to shore, kind of a a good way to describe it would be the same. They're they're different because what the Marine has is different than the Army. But if you remember the movie Saving Private Ryan, right, those those metal bathtub looking boats that came from the big ships to shore. Well, the amphibious readiness group that it's it's all of that. That's what that is with Marines. So, but then in addition to that, you now have the the support logistics vessel, which means after they establish a lodge, uh you then bring forward this other ship to then start bringing in the logistics. They basically, this ship has the ability to create a temporary uh port, if you will, to where you can uh it it extracts its port system and you can start getting stuff onto land. What would you need that for if you didn't have somewhere in your plan to assault land via amphibious raid? That's what they do. It is their it is their purpose for existing. And not only have they been refitt and re-equipped, they've been resent to the theater to do this. So I see very much as I've predicted for a while now that the only way for the United States to attempt to change conditions, and I say attempt, not saying it's a guarantee. I'm not saying that the United States will succeed. The only way that the United States can attempt to change the conditions of negotiations via military power or via military action is either the straight of hormuse uh or changing the calculus in Lebanon to where that's no longer a blue chip for Iran on the table. We're far from being able to influence the outcomes of what's happening in Lebanon yet. I think US Central Command has proposed plans for that. But if you look at what the US Central Command is now preparing for directly in the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Oman, that that that pathway from Diego Garcia, a logistics base into there, they're they're preparing for some type of operation to seize control of the Straight of Hermoose to change the calculus of the negotiations. And it won't work. It's not going to lead to the outcome uh that US Central Command thinks that it will. So, I was looking at the military buildup since the um since the ceasefire
and it's actually remained constant or even increased slightly according to Grock. So,
yeah, there's been no reduction. That's right, Mario. There's been no reduction of US forces which is like
is there any order to reduce the forces whatsoever? Has anyone given an order?
No,
not at all. And in fact, in fact, what did uh you know, Brad Cooper, US Central Command commander earlier in the week was in Lebanon pledging his support and said, "I've got 50,000 troops at the ready uh that I could support you with. Just let us know what you need." And that was to the Lebanese defense minister. But then yesterday uh Brad Cooper uh it was hosted I believe I don't believe it it actually was it was hosted in Bahrain uh where US central command had a 12nation military summit specifically talking about the straight of Hermoose so this isn't a diplomatic negotiate or a diplomatic summit this was a military summit a 12nation naval military summit led by the US hosted in Bahrain talking about the Strait of Kamoose. And now we see that forces in the region have not only not reduced at all, they have slightly increased because of the addition of uh the USS Boxer back into the calculation that increases by a few thousand upwards of upwards of 5,000 Marines. But then there's all of the support that goes with that. Uh you saw the size of the USS Boxer. I mean, if you didn't know the difference between uh aircraft carriers, you would look at that and you would say, "Well, that's an that's an aircraft carrier." It's called a flattop. It's a flattop swift carrier. It's the the Wasp class of USS amphibious carriers. So, uh can it launch jets and aircraft? Absolutely. Can it launch amphibious assault vehicles from its hull? Absolutely. Can it sustain amphibious combat from uh from further out ashore? Uh yes, it can. But then the addition of the other ship with it which can then come in because it's a flat bottom boat can come in and establish a temporary port uh to just start pouring in logistics and troops and sustainment etc. Those those things together equal an amphibious operation at scale. You wouldn't use any of those resources or those assets for anything else. They they can't be used for anything else. So, it looks to me that that the the US plan uh to to now go back to the military drawing board to try to change diplomatic negotiation conditions by changing the military reality is now the attempt that the United States is going to pursue. And it is not going to be easy. It is not going to be pretty. And there is no guarantee of success. But the United States in terms of wanting to change theou is running out of options. Which is why I've always said that the theou as it stands is the best option for the United States, the best option for Donald Trump uh as an exit strategy to this conflict. But like I said, you know, we got uh we got Donald Trump in the passenger seat, we got Pete Tegth drunk in the back, and we got Netanyahu driving. and they're all high on pot driving to driving to Coachella and they miss the exit to get off the exit to this war. And that was this thisou which now has been how how do you go back to thatou right how do you at this point how do you go back to thatou and and start new you you can't you can't we're not going back to negotiations unless conditions change or the conditions that the US wants to change are shot down and there's no attempt to change it and the US has to capitulate and come back to the table but that's the only pathway for the United States at this Why can't you know there's the option of just
and more forces are deploying from Fort Bragg as we speak. I've seen last two days I've seen C17s flying out non-stop. That's where you've got Joint Special Operations Command, Third Special Forces Group, the 82nd Airborne Division, 18th Airborne Corps. Lot of stuff heading over, which is pretty odd for if we're in the middle of
You see C7s coming from Fort Bragg.
Yeah, like as in as in departing. So, here's the thing. I always know when there's an uptick in activity because of the C17 traffic because the the flight path from Fort Bragg uh to departing goes right over my house. So I can I can literally see them. I can see the tail numbers as they fly over. So Fort Bragg is not a C17 base. So like for example, Joint Base Charleston in South Carolina is a C17 base. So, if you live near um Joint Base Charleston and in South Carolina, seeing a lot of C17s coming and going isn't a big deal because that's where they live. That's where they stay. It's a C17 base. Fort Bragg is not a C7 base. So, when you see C7 C7, it's the massive uh uh uh uh aircraft, the uh the transport aircraft. Correct. It's the It's the workhorse of the Department of Defense. So, you have the C5 Galaxy, which is the really, really, really, really big one. That's the one where the front nose cone opens up and the rear opens up. You can literally play a game of football with your full field inside of a C5 galaxy. It is enormous. Those we can use, but we use them less uh because they they have the proclivity to break a lot. Uh there not all runways can handle them. Uh so the big big big one is the C5. The the smaller one is the C130. That right there is the C17. The C17 is the workhorse is the the the the uh the do all really for mobilization of forces. So like at Fort Bragg, when I see an uptick in C17 traffic, uh that indicates that there's something going on operationally where where people where forces are deploying either coming back or or going to. And you can always tell uh when when they're coming in based on the flight path and when they're leaving based on the flight path and if they're full or empty uh based on how they how they take off out of the runway. Like you can you can literally see like as they as they come off the runway and and bank uh to to cross the ocean to go out east, you can literally see them uh having to um you know a heavy takeoff. And I've been in enough C7s to know uh what it looks like and what it feels like and what it sounds like when a C7 is full or empty. So uh a lot of C7s leaving Fort Bragg recently full. So, if you have a lot of C17s coming in and then leaving, that means that there's deployments going on. Typical traffic at Fort Bragg would be C130s or C17 Juliet or excuse me, C27 Juliet, which are kind of like a modified version. But when you see a lot of C17 traffic going in and out of Fort Bragg, that means deployment. And we see that typically with the 82nd Airborne Division, with the 18th Airborne Corps, uh with the special forces groups, you've got third special forces group, you got joint special operations command. So it's all indicative that the the troop buildup in the Middle East uh is not not only not reducing, it's building up. And we already have additional critical assets going or that have arrived in the region like the USS Boxer. That's a that's a critical capability if you want to conduct some type of amphibious assault or or land sea ship ship toshore type of operation. You need to have that. So when you consider everything that's happening and then additionally yesterday US central command having this 12 nation military summit specifically about the straight of hummus something is being planned and is very close to execution militarily and the that makes sense from the standpoint of this agreement or treaties so to speak peace deal because there's there's no there's no way to change the conditions for favor more favorable US conditions unless there's some type of military capitulation or or military control. And the again the the the most uh the most realistic key terrain or or key factor that the US can hope to change to change the dynamic or change the calculus of negotiation is the straight of Hermoose. And I I am I am very confident that we will soon see direct operations in the straight of Kmus uh with other nations either participating andor have being told to hey sit this out don't get involved and I think that the the spark to that or uh the the trigger that kicks that in sooner than later is going to be some type of an assassination attempt or assassination during this 5-day procession in Idam. It's also the option that Trump just walks the hell away. He's tried war. It hasn't worked. He tries all that pressure to have them conceded something of the straight home. It doesn't work, guys. I gave it a shot. I [ __ ] up with this law. I'm out.
Well, no. That's what I'm saying. His his his attempt to walk away. So, as you're you know, we're we're on this highway towards war, right? And we had a few exit ramps beforehand that we kind of that we kind of uh uh blew past. Now with thisou taking that exit ramp from kinetic war, you're not out of the war yet, but off of that exit ramp from kinetic war to thisou was the opportunity for Donald Trump to walk away. That opportunity has been missed. We're now going back to where um Donald Trump now can't walk away because uh whether whether he would like to or not, we now have promises made to the Lebanese armed forces, to the Lebanese government. So, we're deeply embroiled in that now. We now have
So, you're saying you're saying you're saying that the US cannot break promises?
Oh, well, well, no. the the US uh and it will break promises. But I'm saying in terms of the uh the ability to just walk away, they'll remind you
there's going to be well well that too. Have you seen the recent developments in that?
You're talking about the clashes between the Kurds and the Iranians, the IRGC.
So it's it's not just the Kurds, it's the KDPI is now directly in confrontation with the IRGC in Sardasht and Pinshahar. So you have the Iranian Kurds, the the KDPI, which are the the Kurdish Democratic People's Movement, which are directly supported and sponsored by uh the Kurds in Iraq, which in in Iraqi Kurdistan shares that border with Iran. Uh so if the Kurds are now involved, that is a clear indicator that the US is involved. The Kurds aren't doing this of their own accord. So when you go back to the kind of the end of the last round of kinetic activity before theou, we saw Iran striking a lot of targets in northern Iraq in uh near which is the the capital of the Kurdish region. There's also a large US base there. Uh, so Iran likely had intelligence or information that the Kurds were mobilizing or that there were some type of operations to where the Kurds in Iraq would be supporting the Kurds in Iran. The the the PKK and the KPJ supporting the KDPI. And we're now seeing that directly. The KDPI and the IRGC have had direct clashes over the last 48 hours,
like killing each other.
KDP.
Yeah. Go ahead. Kurdish Democratic People's Pardon in Kurdish.
So they're they're based they're based in Iraq. They're very close to the US. Like I'm just because I know there's all these different Kurdish factions and they all have in a way different allegiances. So they lean in different directions. Some more hostile to Iran, some have want nothing to do with Iran, some very close to the US, some not. So some fighting Turkey, some are not fighting Turkey. So, I'm kind of lost with all these different Kurdish groups.
Well, you have the main, you know, let's say that the Kurds, so to speak, you have the uh the the the PKK and within the the PKK is what both the United States uh and Turkey consider a terrorist organization. Uh it is the it is the movement that was founded by Oshalon. uh who is a you know who who is the founder of the PKK uh is considered a you know a you know was considered a you know public enemy number one to the Turks. Um so the underneath the umbrella the PKK you have the YPJ the YPK the YPP the PJKI the KDPI uh the KDPI in Elon uh as you said as you mentioned have have kind of been dormant if you will. They're they're there, but they're kind of like, "Yeah, we're not going to we our little faction is not going to win a big fight against Iran, so we'll just kind of we'll kind of wait until the the conditions are ripe, maybe years down the road." But now now the KDPI, the Kurdish faction in Iran, in the mountains of Iran, in the the mountains of the the Zaros mountains, which are just across from, you know, the the mountain where the Zaros mountain range goes into Iraq with the uh there's a city called Duk. It's in northern Iraq. It's kind of the the birthright, the home of the Iraqi Kurds. Um, so when you consider now that there's this direct support from the PKK, the uh PJK to the KDPI in Iran, we're now seeing that the Kurds are being mobilized. The Kurds are being mobilized to fight a direct confrontation with the IRGC. Over the last 48 hours, uh, the KDPI in Iran in the towns of Sardas and Pinsahar have fought directly killing IRGC and IRGC killing some of them and they're sending more to the front. That support is going to have to come from the Iraqi Kurds because the Kurds within Iran don't have uh as much of the military network established as uh the PKK in Iraq. Who's going to be backing that? The United States. So when you look at now the United States involvement with um with what we might do in Lebanon, what we are now doing directly with the Kurds uh in in Iran and in Iraq, this is not something now that Donald Trump can simply just uh walk away from as much as he wants to. I think I think Donald Trump wakes up every day wanting to walk away from this and just um you know focus on repainting the reflecting pool.
Well, that's an incredible analysis as always. So, conclusion um Iran rejected the latest offer from the US. The US is there is a military buildup around the region and I've checked there was no report of any there's no reports of uh orders by the US for military equipment to leave the region. Um I saw the comment by Sentcom commander in Lebanon saying hey there's 50,000 troops here you ready to to act or whatever he said. I've got the exact quote for you. Let's see what he said. Um there it is. He said more than 50,000 American service members are currently operating across the region remaining vigilant and ready. So that was uh uh Cooper's comments on his visit to Lebanon. I think yesterday or two days ago I think it was yesterday.
It was uh it was two days ago. It was the
We haven't even talked about the the massive military buildup in Yemen. I've talked about it in the last couple of days. The deployment there by the Saudi forces. That's probably
we talked about that a little bit a couple days ago. We talked about that a tad but that's also an important consideration because now as of yesterday uh alsah via the voice of the Houthi movement have said that the street of Babel Mandab is closed to any Israeli or Israeli associated vessels.
No there's no Israeli vessels going through it anyway. This is
exactly
for a long time.
But how do they then associate in terms of or or associated vessels? Does that mean the United States? Does that mean like what does that mean? Uh how are they going to you know is it is it a US vessel that may be coming to to provide support? How do they how do they what connection are they making to where that condition exists? So um at outright at face value it's like it's like saying you know like hey you you can't play basketball here and it's like I don't I don't play basketball so I don't I don't care. But to say that now means okay well what's the interpretation on the ground between the tactical commanders in Yemen that have direct control over uh the straight of her but then let's also remember that
The United States still has a presence in Yemen at Camp Simon. Uh, it's a French base where the US operates drones. So, uh, and I've been there. I've been deployed there. Um, you know, we, it's so when you look at, uh, in Camp Lemonnier, the the forces that are there and what the US is doing, um, that, that then, then puts Americans again, kind of on the front line of what's happening in Yemen.
So you have American interests, American promises, American commitments, American, uh, um, that's in that's in Djibouti near Yemen. I'm sorry, in Djibouti. Camp Lemonnier is in Djibouti. Um, but in, in, in, in Yemen, uh, we have another small, small, small base, uh, where for special operations. It's a, it's a, it's a drone base. It's, you know, like when you consider some of these bases that we have, like when I was deployed in in Tajikistan, and people would say we don't have any bases in Tajikistan. It's like, we, we do. It's not something you would hear, you know, probably a base in North Korea that Kim Jong-un doesn't even know about. That's wild.
Oh man. And there's also the explosion in Syria that happened today. While on a positive note, Al Shar has made it clear. I don't want to be part of this proxy game. He went to Lebanon, gave him a gift of solidarity, said, look, we're not going to fight. We're not going to fight. We're not going to play these games. Which gets me worried on how long, you know, he's going to be around for, because, uh, there's a lot of parties that would not like to see that stability and that cohesion in the region. But the Syrian president is showing no willingness to fight Lebanon or enter his, and enter Lebanon to fight Hezbollah, as Trump requested. So that's a positive sign there.
And Lebanon is looking very worrying. We've got the new agreement which we've talked about that contradicts the Iranian agreement. You've got a lot of disagreements there. Should Israel withdraw before disarming? Should Israel withdraw without disarming, saying they'll never disarm? So it's something we've discussed before. We'll keep discussing. But anyway, the bigger picture is military buildup in the region. Um, Iran rejected the latest offer from the US, and a report came out today that Israel did try to kill, might have tried to kill, Hezbollah and Arachi during the negotiations in Islamabad when they went met to meet JD Vas. So all eyes are on the next few days in the funeral processions for, uh, Ayatollah Khamenei, the former Supreme Leader who was assassinated, and whether Mushabak Khamenei will show up, um, and what happens if he does. So fingers crossed, but, uh, yeah.
Anthony, always a pleasure. Thank you so much for the an for the analysis.
Thank you, Mario, and I appreciate you continuing these discussions on the the breaking information. You know, what we, what we discussed today is pretty, uh, is, uh, pretty, uh, newsbreaking in terms of it's, it's coming out as we've been talking. So, I think it's important that people pay attention to it. And, um, you know, there's, it's not as simple as it seems of just of just, uh, A and B. You know, we have to consider A, B, and then C through Z and all of the various forms of that with this the treaty, the military buildup, everything that you've mentioned. So, it's a very dynamic situation and it just takes one thing to set off this powder keg, and I think, uh, it's more likely than not, uh, that that match has been lit and it's dangling over the pile of gunpowder somewhere over Iran in the next five days. Fingers crossed, Anthony. Thank you.
Thank you, Mario. Appreciate it.
Take care. All right, guys. I'll be live again in three minutes for the last interview of the day with Larry Johnson. But, um, let me know what you think of this analysis. Um, Anthony knows a lot about a lot. So having a chat to him where he knows about all these different Kurdish groups, he knows about all the military equipment, all the, um, uh, the aircraft, the, um, transport aircraft that is moving, um, into the region, um, and even going deep into the Israeli assassination attempts across multiple countries and using them as an example of what they're willing and capable to do, how far they're willing to go, uh, to be able to see the risk that Mushabak will be facing this weekend if he does show up. Um, so I enjoyed this conversation. Let me know what you think and I'll be live again in two minutes. Bye.