Transcription
Some big news came out of the White House yesterday that I think will cause some volatility this week, but will also provide some significant opportunity on four particular stocks that I'm going to be talking about. I'm going to be talking about why long-term I will be continuing to buy these stocks. And then I'm also going to talk about where I think the market is headed now that rate cuts are underway. But before we get started, remember this is not financial advice. I'm just sharing what I'm personally doing for educational purposes only. Results may vary.
Now, let's take a look at the account. We hit new all-time highs in the account, as you could see right here. And if you do want to follow along my journey to hit my 8 figure goal, please make sure to subscribe by clicking the subscribe button down below. And if you get any value out of this video, I would highly appreciate if you hit the thumbs up button for me. Let's go ahead and jump into it. But I'm going to go into my realized gain loss so you could see my, you know, current month and how I'm doing for educational purposes, for documentation, um, and to show you that I practice what I preach. So, right now, the current month, we're up 26K in premiums. Obviously, results vary month to month, but, uh, that's pretty good and I'm not the only one doing it. As you can see here in my private mastermind, Options Trading University, we now have 378 clients all sharing their inspiration. We see Ramen right here sharing his monthly inspiration. Um, right there. Amazing to see, right? Uh, Jack right here. Right. And more clients, newer clients also showing their um, you know, their inspiration. Obviously, results vary based off account size and risk tolerance. But if you do want access to my trades, uh, in the Ryan's Trade section and the LEAPS, entries, and exits that'll be at the top of the description. Also, I do give away free trade ideas on my Instagram and my free newsletter. So, make sure to be subscribed to both of those in the description because they're free.
So, let's go ahead and jump into it. Now, we had some amazing news, right? Jerome Powell cut the interest rates by a quarter basis point. He didn't surprise the market. That was expected. And the market continued higher. And now we are seeing an influx of buyers coming into some of our favorite stocks. Now, if we took take a look at the CME Fed Watch tool, which I take a look at every single week, this tells us basically how many rate cuts are on the way, the the probabilities of them. 91% we're getting another rate cut in October and then another one in December. So, uh, two more rate cuts for the year as expected. And that's really, really good for the markets because businesses can start borrowing at cheaper rates, consumers can start borrowing at cheaper rates and spending more money. Um, and that's typically when we see the markets head higher and we are getting a few next year that are being priced in. I know Jerome Powell this indicated maybe only one rate cut next year but what's being priced in is one more in March. Okay. Another one potentially in July. So that's two and then potentially one um in December. So that's three additional rate cuts. And remember Jerome Powell is out of office in May. So, we may see more aggressive cuts on the way.
Now, let's talk about what that means for the markets. Okay, so the markets just continued to melt higher here. We didn't quite get that pullback that I expected on any surprises because there was no surprise. Just came in in line with what the market was expecting. We did have a little bit of a dip, which was a great buying opportunity if you were able to get that um right before the announcement was made. And then boom, new all-time highs on QQQ right up to that that 600 area that I was talking about in previous videos. Okay, so uh not that I'm trying to predict where these things are going, but I just kind of see nice even numbers um, you know, being hit. So now that we hit this 600 level on QQQ, where do we head next? Well, we did get some news in yesterday that may provide for a small little pullback maybe to this 595 or even back down to the 590 area for another opportunity. Okay. Um, I do see a little bit of a breather. Maybe we you know, have a breather this week because we are a little bit overextended on the not only the Bollinger bands but the RSI we are officially overbought. Okay. And usually, you know, if we want to see the markets head higher, and I think we could hit this 610 area in the next week or two, that's definitely doable. Uh, but it would be nice to see a little bit of a healthy pullback, a little bit of volatility, and then we head higher. So, that's kind of my expectation to the upside. 610 is the next target. And then on the downside, probably this 590 area at the lowest. Um, so somewhere in between there if we get some volatility this week.
Now, if we take a look at the VIX, okay, we are in this golden range. We're still above 15, which is good because there's slight fear in the markets. Okay, we haven't gotten to this confidence and greed zone in the 14s or even the 13s, but I think we're going to be headed there this time around now that Jerome Powell has officially did the quarter basis point rate cut and announced kind of a projection for the future. So, I think that we, you know, trend lower here on VIX, potentially even into the 13s. And I will be following my VIX cash allocation rules a little bit closer when we get in back into the 14s. But for now, I'm actually very aggressive. If you take a look at the VIX cash allocation levels, as you can see, we are still in this zone right here, VIX 15 to 20. Slight fear. So, right now, I could technically have 20 to 25% cash. I have about 15. So, I'm very aggressive. Now, the reason that is so is because when we see rate cuts coming underway, the market tends to go much higher. So, I wouldn't be surprised if we get overextended here on QQQ on the S&P 500. It wouldn't surprise me if valuations become very rich here. Okay, that's just how the market tends to move. So unfortunately it's not it's not good for the downside because if we just keep melting up here we will probably you know, potentially experience a bigger uh pullback which would be a good opportunity but um, you know, it's it's hard to see those things on the P&L on the you know, your portfolio value and just um, you know, overall uh positions but that is why it's so important to follow those VIX cash allocation rules and that's why I did that before the Jerome Powell announcement. Just in case we did get a big dip, I was there ready to purchase.
Now, um, let's go ahead and go over the news. Okay, so Trump basically, President Trump basically uh slapped a $100,000 annual recurring fee on H1B visas. What does this mean? Well, companies hiring from India and China, they're hiring skilled labor that is much cheaper. Um, basically instead of being $7,000 for the H-1B visa, it will be $100,000 to sponsor these um foreigners, right? So that is going to be a huge um hit on these companies, but I think there will be unintended consequences of this not being well, these companies are going to suffer because they can't hire skilled people, right? Skilled people that are in other countries that might be more skilled and willing to work for less. But I think that this will only make AI advance faster. Okay, we are already seeing companies laying off many workers because of AI advancement, AI efficiency. Okay, AI basically replacing jobs. And I think this is going to make it worse because these companies are not just going to sit back and say, "Oh, well, um, okay, fine. We're gonna pay those fines or we're gonna hire Americans, per se." They are just going to figure out ways to not hire anyone and replace these lower level uh software development jobs, that kind of stuff. Okay. So I have a chart here basically of a few categories of jobs that are basically these are being filled by H-1B visa uh foreigners. Okay. And these will be at are very high risk of AI replacement in the next two to five years. Okay. So data analyst a very high AI risk replacement in the next two to four years. Okay. Reporting analysts Q&A and testing very high risk in the next 3 to 5 years. Entry level software development two to five years um very high risk 60 to 80% risk okay mid-level software developers moderate risk 30 to 50% AI replacement risk and these numbers will only get higher and the AI impact timeline will only get shorter because of this news right here. Okay, this is my prediction. Obviously, this is my opinion, but I think this is going to benefit um shareholders and it's going to benefit companies in the long run because they're going to be forced to lower their costs even more by developing AI. So, there's going to be a few specific companies that are going to benefit from this. Okay.
Now, number one, I'm going to go through four specific stocks from what I see to be highest risk just based off prices and PE ratios to lowest risk opportunities. And all four companies I believe are going to benefit highly in the long term from this advancement in AI and some of the news coming out. So, the first one is Palantir. All right, we're looking at Palantir. What a significant comeback on Palantir. Um, I still think this is going to 200. Okay. Uh, in the next, let's just say by end of year, I think Palantir potentially could hit 200. Um, so with that being said, obviously we're breaching upper Bollinger bands, we're approaching that overbought level on the RSI. Um, and PE ratio is very high on Palantir, but I still think this is a good long-term opportunity. So, I'm going to show you how I'm specifically playing this stock. So, we're going to dive into the portfolio. Remember, this is not financial advice. I'm just sharing what I'm personally doing for educational purposes only. Results may vary. Um, but if we go into the account, all right, you could see that my Palantir position is a little bit smaller than before. All right, I previously had like 160,000 in cash secured puts. We're going to open this up. Um, right now I have about 96,000. Now I have the 160s, the 157s, and the 162 and a half cash secured puts. Now, if you don't know how what I'm doing here with a cash secured put, basically, it's allows me to get paid a premium and potentially dollar cost average and get the stock assigned to me at a lower price. So, I'm going to go over I have many videos on my channel about the wheel strategy and how I deploy that on companies like Palantir. So, you could check those out if you don't know what that is. Um, but basically right now, okay, I would go out to October 24th and I would get decently aggressive on Palantir. Okay. Uh, I think 167 and a half, this strike price is a 26 delta with a potential ROI of 3%. Okay. Um, I would feel safe selling this cash secured put. Now, the downside risk is if the stock goes below 167 and a half, like even if it goes down to 160, I'm going to be forced to buy 100 shares at 167 and a half. But I like that because if we go to the chart, all right, that's still a pretty big discount on the stock. So 167 and a half is right here. Okay, the stock would basically have to fall, all right, from current prices about 8%. So, I'd get a 8% discount if it did go down there, and I'd get assigned 100 shares and get paid a premium to do so. Um, from all-time highs, that would be a 12% discount. So, I feel safe at that strike price. Um, now with this, you know, momentum in Palantir, who knows, we could see 190 next week. Okay. Uh, so that's Palantir and I think Palantir is the leading AI software and many companies are going to be deploying it. um their AIP software platform. um so I think Palantir is a very you know, significant beneficiary of this AI movement. Okay. Um, being software.
Now let's go ahead and move into the next stock, which is CLS. Okay. Celestica. Now Celestica makes a lot of the hardware components. Okay. They they develop these components for data centers for companies that want to build um technology, right? For instance, Celestica built most of the components in the Xbox 360. They also build a lot of the components that go into data centers. So, I think with data center expansion, especially because there's so much investment in data center expansion, CLS is going to benefit. And I really like where it is at on the Bollinger bands because it's not breaching the upper like it was not too long ago. It's kind of stabilizing in this price range between 240 and two let's just call it 255. All right. So I like to see stabilization here. Now the premiums are really good in the cash secured puts. Um, we're not overbought on the RSI. Okay. MACD is looking a little bit a little bit of bearish potential divergence. So we might see a little bit of a cool off here. And any dip here, I'm fine selling cash secured puts at this 220 level. So 220 is right where um it basically gapped up from. Okay. And I'm still able to collect decent premium here. And if I got assigned there, oh, that would be amazing, right? So CLS is a great company because, you know, PE ratio is semi-low in this space. It's 53. Um, you know, great profit margins, great uh net free cash flows. Uh, a really good company. Okay. And in a company that has somewhat of a moat um and not too many people know about it other than you know, traders and investors. So if we go into the portfolio, I'll show you my current position. This is one that I upped to 132K in cash secured puts and I'm fine upping this position even more. So let's go into CLS and I'll show you if we go out, you know, October 24, 33 days. I typically go out 25 to 35 days. Um, I like to be somewhere around that 30-day mark just for monthly premiums. Um, but if we go to the uh 220 strike, right now it's just under a potential ROI of 3%. So, if I wanted to get above that 3%, I like the 225 strike price here. I'd collect 730. It's a 24 delta, so it has a 24% chance of being in the money or me getting assigned 100 shares. And the potential ROI is 3.5%. So, I like this strike. I'll probably go to this strike next week and up this position to, you know, 10, maybe even 12 to 13% of the portfolio. So, I like Celestica. Um, this is going to be a key player in data center expansion. Uh, you know, just kind of a a tangent company to that. So, uh, this is a very good company with decent PE ratio that I want to continue adding. Okay.
Um, now let's go ahead and move on to the third company, which is Oracle. All right, this is one that I still haven't added to the portfolio. I'm just kind of waiting to see where it bases out, but it it's kind of basing out around this 300 area. Um, I don't know if we could head a little bit lower. It would be nice if we could, but I would like to add this to the portfolio as well. Um, it isn't above the upper Bollinger band, which is good. It's not overbought on the RSI. Has good MACD uh bullish momentum and PE ratio 71. So, a little bit higher, but still a good opportunity here on Oracle. Um, if we go to let's go to the options chain for Oracle, so we could check that out. Um, we're going to go out to October 24th and we'll just kind of take a look at what it is paying out here. So, if we go to like a 30 delta, which 31 delta, which is typically what I sell, um, that's the 290 strike. I'd collect a,000 and that would be a potential 3% 3.8% ROI. Obviously, you know, depends on where the stock is at um next week, but I like that strike price. 290 um would get me, you know, would get me like right here, but it would be nice if we could pull back a little bit more so I could sell the 280s and collect about the same amount. So, that's kind of where I'm targeting Oracle. Um, but again, 290 would not be bad from all-time highs, you know, the discount would be about yeah, 16%. And from current prices, the discount would be about 6%. So, not not too bad of an entry here, but just waiting to see if we could get a down day next week to add some Oracle to the position to the portfolio.
But the last stock is going to be Nvidia. Okay, Nvidia is really coiling up here and this is going to obviously Nvidia, everyone needs Nvidia chips to expand AI and Nvidia makes the best chips in my opinion. So, um, we're currently trading at the middle line of the Bollinger band, which is good to see, right? We're not too overextended here. We're kind of coiling up in this 165 to 180 range, just, you know, trading sideways into here. But we tend to do that on Nvidia and then you know, like even back here it starts to jump up and trade higher. So we'll see kind of where that momentum is. We've seen moments like this like back here where it kind of traded sideways for a while and then had this huge runup right and then um, you know, during the tariffs crash it was kind of trading sideways here and then had a nice runup. So if we could get a similar situation this would be a great entry on Nvidia. We're not even close to being overbought on the RSI. PE ratio is the lowest. It's at 50. Okay. And I really like this company long-term. So, if we go to Nvidia now, this would be the lowest risk, but um premiums aren't as good in Nvidia. So, if we go out 33 days, right, to get to pick up a potential 3% ROI, I would have to go to the 175 strike right at the money. Okay. Now, if I wanted to go slightly lower to the 170, I'd still collect about a potential 2.6% ROI or 435 bucks. So, I like this one. Probably 170 would be where I'd go. And if it goes below there, I'll get assigned 100 shares. And as you can see, I have the 170. So, I have a pretty significant um position here in the 170s because I like the stock at that price and I don't mind to get assigned. So, if we go back to uh where it's trading, right, 170, it's currently trading at 176. 170 would be about a, you know, 3% discount from here. And from all-time highs, it'd be about a 7% discount, which is a nice correction type um discount on the stock. So, I like it there. I'll probably just get some more of those once mine expire and, you know, ride this stock up higher. So, I really like Nvidia into this news.
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