Transcription
Well, another barn burner it looks like. But you have a lot going on under the hood, don't you? And we should talk about that. I do want to go through the basics first. Higher high. Can't be remiss. It definitely was a higher high. And we did see again follow-through in the big dogs, didn't we? Meaning the semiconductors. They are continuing to push higher.
Now, we're down about a dollar after hours in the socks. I don't think that's that big of a deal. What I do want to point out before we go any further is the ASOX continues to rally. The ESOCS continues to also rally more and we're going to have to talk about this because I think this this is a huge distinction. Also, not all rocket companies are created equal. Rocket Labs continues to push. We went over this one Saturday for you guys. And if we take a look at as hours, we can see how that is cratering. We're going to talk about the differences here and the nuances you need to be aware of. And of course, we need to follow up on what's going on with EWI as we covered that on Saturday. Let's get to it.
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So the very first thing that I want to cover is EWY. And the reason for this is because we had a lot of time with it on Saturday. I will link Saturday's video at the back of this one on the end screen. If you haven't watched that, just go to the part on Samsung. You can just go through the timestamps till you see it. You can't miss it. We did that really in depth so you can see what the dates are and what we have to look forward to. Tomorrow's day two just to be blunt about it and save everybody a little bit of time. But you still want to go look at the other dates. May 13th is a big one. You need to know why.
But when we're looking at this, what did we really do today? Well, we came out, we hit another all-time high. We saw some upgrades on the entire country, but we don't have a remedy to what's going on in Samsung yet. And I think that that's the thing that's kind of hanging over our heads a little bit. Now, we take a look at Taiwan and what's going on over there. They're just grinding and it was a much stronger market. Before we get into the breath of the market as a whole, I just want to show you what's going on in semiconductors cuz I think it's super interesting. Let's drop this to a complete bare chart and then all we're going to do is look at ESOC.
Now, ESOX is the equity weighted index, right? That means all everything that's in the semiconductor index and then they just weight it. I find this very helpful to look at. And also all you have to do with this and I'll show you how what I do is I just should have this right in here. And so I can just always just go through them all. And one thing I like to do is just sort them at the end of the day and then say, hey, who's where and why. And you can see that in the socks who the big winners are. And then it just helps you for for the rest of the day kind of plan it out. This is one we bought. Paid like 30 bucks for it. Doing really well. Micron's hanging in there, but this is becoming a concern of mine anyway before the ADD kicks in. Let's get back to it.
So, by sorting that way, it tells us where they're going and where the puck's going. But there's a there's a nuance here to this. So, what's the nuance? Well, I'm glad you asked. You can take the equity weighted and you can divide that by the socks itself. And then it'll tell you how you're performing, if you're performing better or worse than it, right? If it was weighted or not weighted. Now, Nvidia is ripping. So, right now, that equity waiting is not going to be the same. But the other thing you can do with it is take equity waiting and then divide it by ASOX which is AI semiconductor and you get a very different story here. So what's the story? Equity weight is outperforming what? Equity weight is outperforming AI right now. Super interesting. A lot of people are like I need to be in the AI semiconductor names. So when you're, you know, at the bar talking to whoever and you just be like, no, it's the equal weight over uh the AI space. It's not just those. it's also all of them. But then again, you can also do the same thing again and you go SMH and then you look at that and say, well, the parts of SMH are actually doing better than the equal weight. You take that apart and yep, you got it. You'll find Nvidia again. This position in Nvidia, as they're trying to get ahead of earnings, I think it's great. We'll see how it goes. Every time earnings come out, they're always fairly good and it always does the same thing. Gaps up, sells down. It's almost become like I don't know the right word, but I mean you can almost set your watch to it, I guess, is the way to say it. But this break and now we're over. I think it looks great. I like where we are. I'm a little concerned about the breath of the market and we're going to get to that. But I just want to focus on a couple things that I think are super interesting.
So we're seeing Micron, for example, break out. Now you're down about five bucks after hours, six bucks, whatever. It's going to bunk around. It's Micron. It's had a huge run. And we've had this enormous run on it. But the question we always have to ask oursel about these runs is what's going to derail us? And I don't know that there is again if we just come to here, we'll see that the first fib level would have taken us there off that move. But I think if you really came to like the swing low down here, you can see that other area where we ran into an issue. And you could always go back to the initial breakout and go from there. Let's grab it. And I'll just show you. So here's your original breakout. And so if we went to that original breakout, it's going to take you back to that level. And that's really the area that I would use for the longer term break between that swing high and the original breakout. But you know, you're over that. And so that you get into what I refer to as just nosebleleed seats. And it does become an area. I'll just show it to you. It's up here. And and what tends to happen between this is it gets extremely vicious and volatile. Straight up is not a pattern. The middle finger is not a pattern. So you have to just realize that sometime there's going to be back filling. And the one thing that always gets me about this is what's it going to be? It's always something that we don't think it is. So what we want to focus on is why? Well, you have this Sam strike. So when the strike ends and all strikes end, is that going to be the thing that sends us lower? And it very well could be. Yeah, it could be that thing.
If we take a look at SanDisk, we really couldn't get out of our own way today and we couldn't get above that open. And so we have to ask ourselves like, what's it going to take? Well, we've come pretty far in a very short period of time. If you go back and take a look at where you were Friday, May 1st to now, you know, you're up 52%. It's a huge move to not come in and backfill some. And we have to be cognizant of that, right? We have to be really cognizant that, yeah, we could come in and we can totally backfill here. And we want to be really aware of that. We don't have to do anything about it. We don't have to get out of swings to know that. What we'd look for is say to ourselves like, well, where would that take us to? Historically, we've held that 12, and we've done a great job holding that 12. I use a 12, a 22, and a 55. You should use what you're comfortable with. So, if we watch that level, you come back down there 1237. And people will say, well, why do you use the 12? And then you look at Nokia hitting that 12, reversing, and then going higher, right? So, if we keep going here and look at how this is playing out, we want to watch SanDisk, we want to watch Micron overnight, you could get news that this either falls apart or they come to some kind of agreement. I think both of these names come in on set agreement. I don't know what EWI does. To me, EWI should rally because now we don't have to worry about Samsung, which is a huge component, dragging down EWI, but you might have uh some operating costs there that might factor into like the PE multiple. So, it's a little bit of a pickle to say the least. And so, we're going to have to watch how that plays out. That's really how I feel about it. I think you have to look at that.
Also, we should talk about the weak dollar. I think that was super interesting. You know, let's dive into that right now. We'll just start getting into the dollar. And the interesting thing here is if we just do the simple things again and take the 55 and drop it, we can see we try to get over undercut rallies undercut. So we've got a weak dollar. Now one thing that people aren't aware of, but when you get a weak dollar, silver tends to rally and we're seeing silver rally. And so that's definitely something we want to pay attention to. The other side of this is it also fits into that when you get a weak dollar, you're going to see European banks or Asian banks and they're going to sell certain names. So when the dollar is strong, you will see more people go out there and buy the MAG 7 very specifically. I don't want to look at mags because you're going to be skewed because of Tesla. Tesla had a barn burner of a day. What we saw with Tesla was it went right to that call wall which was 450 and it went from there.
But so what we want to focus on again is what we're seeing. So Amazon, we're starting to see Amazon come in and that doesn't look great. I've seen great before. You know what we really want to do is make sure that you hold that 12. and you're starting to set up here a little bit and I don't really like shooting stars and I own this so I you know that doesn't make me happy. I've been happy before. If I look at Google, same thing. We're starting to get that hanging Chad, right? And we don't really want to see those. And backfilling is not a bad thing. Just don't do it with my stocks. But in all seriousness, yeah, it does look like we're starting to hang out there. We saw Meta and Meta is rallying, but your put wall is at 600 and we went through it and I was looking at this today trying to figure out what was going to happen. Now you're up and trying to hold it after hours, but you can see this conglomerate of nonsense above you and it looks like we're breaking there. So it does look like we're starting to see some deterioration in the dollar. If we go and take a look at this on the hourly and let's get rid of the pre and the post and I'll show you it. So we can see all that selling here on the five. That's not what I want. I want the hourly and you cracked and then it didn't look that bad and then into that hourly the selling really picked up and then we just continued to sell. That's not really what I want to see when I'm looking at this stuff. I don't really want to see the green hourly volume lower than all this red starts kicking in. So, you know, it might crack pop because the weasel goes pop. You know, put walls are great until they break and then they're a nightmare. So, I'd watch this tomorrow, but you definitely are seeing that.
The other thing that I would say that what else would give me pause was just this. And we went over this in the public pre-market today for people. And again, if you're trying to get into the community for all the private stuff, just make sure you're on the wait list. They are going out. But and maybe we're going to grab something today because now we're starting to turn and hit the highs. But we really have come off that those new highs. Now, we could always argue that well, we're making this kind of turn and that's okay. I don't know. We're not really hitting higher highs as we're going higher. If you look at when you come off at 26 and you're hitting new highs and this is NAS New York Stock Exchange new highs, you're hitting higher highs. Yeah, you have your little dips, right? But then you go back higher highs. It rips higher. You're not really doing that here. And if we go and take a look at the lows as well, the New York Stock Exchange lows and it's a little bit of it's a little bit of a pickle, man. Like it's not great. So, is this does this mean it's like what I wanted to say on or I said on Saturday, not like what I wanted to say. the breath is deteriorating, but what does that mean? Like, how bad does it get? I don't think you're going to fall off a cliff. But I think that if you're not looking at this and thinking that there could be a pullback that there's a problem.
And we did break something today and I do want to spend some time on it. So, for those that don't know, this is stocks above their certain percentages, right? And their moving averages. So, percent above the 200, percent above the 50, the 20, and the five. I show this a lot, so apologies to those that watch these videos that I have to go through it again, but um it is what it is. And so on the 200, we're flat to down. And I I want to start there because I think it's important. Now, if we blow this up, what do you see happening here? Right? And I guess it's going to be rhetorical since you can't answer right now, but you can drop it in the comments. Do you see that going up or down? Down. Yay. The questions will get harder as the day goes on. And so you could start seeing that you're losing on the breath. You're losing more stocks that are not above their 200 day moving average.
All right, next question. Let's go look at the 50. Up or down? Down. All right. You like when they go up. Here's the problem. You broke 50 today. And people will be like, "Well, you just broke a little bit." Well, you know, a break's a break. So, you did break below the 50. You broke below it here. You tried to rally. You made a lower what? High. Meaning the breath didn't get better. And now you're making a what? Lower low. It's not great. It doesn't mean it's the end of the world, but it does mean that more stocks are below their 50-day moving average than are above it. And that is something that institutions look at. If you ever want to see every great drop that you've had in the market, it'll be on that level. So, if I went and looked at that again, then we'll have to bring this down. We'll have to drop it like it's hot, like the kids say. And you start looking at every break, every single one is going to be around that level. Not one. They're all going to do it. And when they hit those levels, they bottom. It's a technical level. and all institutions sit there and look at it. You can remember this from all that winning and liberation that we had. But here's where we're at now. We have to be very cognizant of that and it becomes something that is on our radar.
The 20 we've been talking about for some time and just that it looks awful and we were hoping it was going to get better. Does that look like it's getting better or worse? It looks like it's getting worse. Now you have almost 60% of all stocks below their 20-day moving average. Something that we have to pay attention to. We watch the five for the quick moves, but that's not something that we really have to see, you know, as as like, oh, no, that's a problem because of the lower high. It's not great, but what would be better is if it was like at a a 10 or one of these levels where you're going to say, oh, well, hey, we're going to at least have a short-term bounce. No, it's staying commensurate with everything else. So, that's not really what we want to see. And in and of itself, this becomes a problem.
Now, if we do the simple things again and we go back to this and we go NDFI and then we go all right come on work with me not against me and we have to go to the daily. There it is. We can see here again and this is the NASDAQ and this is the 50-day. Let's get rid of this. And we can see that we hit that 66. We haven't come back. Now we're undercutting and we're not breaking. Now, we always want to go S5FI and then we want to divide that by NDFI. So, what we're doing is we're taking the S&P 50-day and we're dividing that by the NASDAQ 50-day. And then we're hitting our fancy button. What we don't want to see is it rallying. We want to see it what? Dropping. Stagnation's okay, but we don't want to see it rallying. Right now, we have stagnation. So, when we turn this into a fancy line, we're not really worried about it, but it's not telling us that we're going to push. So, that's the first thing that we really want to take from it, right?
The other thing that we'd want to look at are two other indicators to get a sense of what's going on there. So, we're going to click on this. We're going to make candles. We're going to clean this all off. And we're going to notice that the VIX, and nobody's talking about this, right? And well, maybe they are. I don't know. We didn't really talk about it in the community a lot today, which was kind of interesting. But you're in an 18. So, all of a sudden, the VIX, the last close that was up here was in the 29th in April. So, this is the highest close I believe that we've had. Yeah, you could say that this went to 19, but where'd we close? 28. And where are you? 37. So, this is the highest close that we've had in May. And we're not really, no one seems that concerned about it. Let's go take a look at move for a second. See if there's anything going there. Not really. We're kind of ticking up a little bit on bond volatility, but not a lot.
So, we have the VIX ticking up. We have the socks and the breath starting to get a little wonky, right? We're starting to see this start to get a little wonky today. And we started to really even see that with AMD forming something like a dogee here. But take a look at this hourly. Now, just disclosure, I am I do have a short position on here. Not a lot. More of a hedge against some of my other positions. But if we look at that bar down, and I do People like, do you really look at this stuff like that closely? Yeah, I do. Where I'm going with this is when you have a bar down like this that encompasses other hours, you want to pay attention to it. This encompassed three hours, actually four if you include 10:30. out of nowhere just encompassing all of that body of work at the end of the day. I always pay attention to that. It becomes a concern. It's not as much of a concern if the RSI is like here. But when you're up here and you start seeing cracks, you have to look for them. You're not really doing it here, but you're still up in the nosebleleeds. So, I would watch that. And I'm wondering how that's going to play out with the micron and the SanDisk dependent upon again you could come in tomorrow and these could be up 100 points SanDisk because the merge or the mediation didn't go through and they say we're definitely going to strike. But when we look at this we're seeing a high and now we're seeing a possible lower high. And when we're in the nosebleleeds we have to look for what's going to whack us over the head. We can't just sit here and go everything's great you know and just pull the ostrich. It doesn't work that way. And we want to watch this stuff. And I'm going to watch it pretty darn closely.
A couple things that I think that you should really be aware of. I noticed today a couple things. Number one, trades later in the day were way better. I tried a couple day trades off the open. It made very little. Mostly a couple of them just didn't work and just blew them out. And then later in the day, they worked really well. So the structure of the market is definitely picking up later in the day. And that's a problem because it's telling us that even what they're doing off the first half hour, you always get that divergence, but you're not getting it the same way. It's very different. And I always am looking for that. I'm always looking to see like what's going to be a little different about the market.
So, we did this. I'll show you here. And the breakouts aren't working. And when you see this, so there's two things I want you to take from this one. The way that you're supposed to be looking at the open with your orb trades and your VWAP, they're not working the same way. I just want to show it because I'm saying that we do it. So, there's where there we are at 130. And you can see this pop. And it's not the pop that gets me. It's the back down. It's the retest of the area ahead of getting through those. So when you're seeing these breakouts, the breakouts aren't working. The breakouts are luring us to our doom. So you want to be careful of that. You're really looking at those retest pullbacks to areas and then getting involved in those trades. Look, you can look at the time stamps and look at where we're entering. It's very different than going by the breakout. You want to be very cognizant to not do that. and then we're just getting out as everybody's getting in because we're not expecting the same kind of momentum, right? So, we pull money out and then we just move the stop up and we get out of the way. Not because we know that this is going to come at the end of the day, but because we want to prepare ourselves, right? So, when we're doing those, we're always pulling money out into positive slippage. We're not high-fiving the bros, right? Trying to figure out which hot pocket we're going to be able to get if we get a premium one tonight. That's a very big difference there. And I really want to hammer that point home. So, I'm very cautious when I see that when I don't have followth through and I see them trying to push the names like, "Oh, you better get in and they pop you over like a key level like they did on Intel and then they just bring you back down." You want to watch that.
I think you're getting different stories. Rocket Labs was one. We talked about this in Saturday's video. This chart just textbook looks beautiful and had an amazing day and we had an amazing trade on that today. Uh that was the best trade I had of the day and I think it looks fantastic. STS came out with earnings and they were a dumpster fire floating down the river with a bunch of raccoons. This is really bad because the guide was 39 million and they came in at like 14. And maybe it's because this thing didn't unfold or whatever the reason, but you need to guide lower. Like when you know your numbers are going to be that off, you need to guide lower. So they're going to have a credibility issue there. Besides, you could look at all the insider selling that's been going on there. We've been talking about that. It's a problem. And maybe they short squeeze it tomorrow. Maybe they don't. But it's an issue. HIMS they left their revenue in line but the margins are really bad and I think that the margins are really going to weigh on the company a lot and this was really ugly as far you're supposed to make money you lost money and you really lowered your IBIDA like substantially they cut their IBIDA in half so this could have an issue as well but overall do we see money flowing in other areas we do I think IGV is holding up really nicely and I want to just stress this with where am I going with this where's he going with this I don't think that you're setting up with doom and gloom. Far from it. I think you've moved pretty far pretty fast and those that have made it are going to look at locking it in at the first sign of any real issue.
You have a lot going on this week, right? You have that clarity act that we have to, you know, we'll talk about that later. That's going on. You have Trump in China. What could go wrong? And then you have some other things going on out there such as the Samsung strike. So, there's a lot of uncertainty and a lot of people are up a lot of money. And if they start seeing cracks, they might start buying puts and that might start leading to some pressure. So watch the VIX and we'll see if it gets over 20. If it does, that's when we'll see more pressure.