32 Teams. 32 Facts To Win Your 2026 Fantasy Football Draft

32 teams. Yes, 32 earthshattering, potentially leaguewinning fantasy football stats. Some of these today are going to focus on players, others on coaches, and maybe even one or two questions, Hayden, because some of these teams really still confuse me despite being, I don't know, five weeks until the regular season kicks off.

Yeah, a lot of moving parts in terms of play callers this year. I try to take like the either the most controversial player with the note on this or maybe a player that we haven't talked about the entire summer and that might not fit into some of these pre-season training camp narratives. So, a little bit of everything in this one.

Of course. And for those of you that have been with us for a very long time, you know that when you see this thumbnail that you clicked on, uh, you know this is the most important time of the year. It's stats versus film season, baby. I mean, this is our flagship show. If you enjoy this, if you are a first-timer during this preseason, just know that we post one of these episodes every single Tuesday. In fact, a little birdie told me we might go live with this episode every single Tuesday in the regular season with a special guest that you all love. So again, if you enjoy it, hit subscribe. We're trying to get 200,000 subscribers this season and we cover all 32 teams every single week in this episode. Today I have AFC, Hayden has the NFC. So you kick things off with back-to-back teams. Go ahead.

Arizona Cardinals. Marvin Harrison Jr. career 1.1% screen rate. I think that is important because that's the reason why he has not been paying off in fantasies. The wide receiver 42 on wide receiver 40 usage on a per game basis over his first two seasons. There are so many on-off splits, especially with the Kyler Murray stuff. One of them though is he has led, uh, Michael Wilson in terms of targets in all 10 games this past season when they were together. And at the same time, Michael Wilson has talked about when he was balling out, it's because he was playing X-receiver and that the offense was either going through the tight end or the X-receiver, not the other stuff. I looked at the training camp footage. Marvin Harrison is continuing to play that X-receiver role. He's got to catch the ball more in in these training camp clips that I'm seeing. But I think the big thing to overcome what should be a probably a bottom 10 scoring offense and bottom 10 team this year is he's got to have at least some more gimme looks. The 1% uh screen rate is is kind of like the obvious thing. More screens, more slant routes, some more like just like mesh concepts, shallow crosses, that type of stuff is how Marvin Harrison's going to pay off ADP. And if that doesn't change, I do fear there's just too much target competition in the offense.

Yeah, for a guy that was a top five overall pick, there's just, I think, too many flaws in his profile. I I gotta be honest. Um, and it's not, you know, recency bias of watching these training camp clips against air dropping passes. Uh, he is not a manufacturer touch guy as you have highlighted and then even during his rookie season and this continues throughout his second season. Uh, contested grabs, he just doesn't win those often enough. And he won them a little bit more often when he bulked up and went up to 220 lbs this past season, but still too often when a quarterback that is lighter and smaller goes through him, he loses that. He his timing on back shoulders just isn't there. So, while I do appreciate that now we get him and Jacobe Brissett to at least open the season, Hayden, I think we're on the same page that Jacobe is not going to line up for 17 straight games and just throw the ball all across the yard. Uh, I think in that case then Marv could pay off his seventh round price tag that he is on Yahoo as wide receiver 31. But it just kind of scares me that we don't know that for certain and the dynamic might just get worse as the season goes along.

A couple of training camp notes. Jacobe Brissett gets the raise that he deserves. But I don't think that means he's going to finish the season like you said. I do think after the by-week, given that strength of schedule, it could be Carson Beck. So there's a chance that Marvin Harrison's a wide receiver three up until that point and then the offense like really kind of sputters. And then the other thing is they've been mentioning James Conner a lot when they've been talking about the running back room, which he's obviously been pushed to the side because of Jeremiah Love and Tyler Allgeier. We'll learn soon enough if they're serious about that or if they're trying to trade him. I can see both of those narratives existing. But there is at least now a chance where James Conner is making this a three-back committee, which obviously would terrify you if you're spending a two-three turn pick on Jeremiah Love.

We got to move on. We're not going to spend this much time on every single team, but I will say on the running back point, we talked about Jeremiah Love with Ron Stewart when he was on the program earlier. And, you know, during Breece Hall's time with Mike LaFleur during his rookie season, he did get up to running back seven in points per game when Mike LaFleur was calling those plays and that's despite a slow start of 12, eight, and 14 touches in the opening three contests. So, I don't expect Jeremiah Love to go out there and get 18 touches in the first game. That's just not, you know, Mike LaFleur or how all rookie running backs are handled despite again him being what, the third overall pick this past year. Uh, but this is one that you need to have patience on. So, I I understand his price tag. I just also know that unless I'm drafting at the 1-1, I I probably won't end up with him because I'm already taking two running backs ahead of them.

Next, Atlanta Falcons. Drake London was the wide receiver five on wide receiver five usage from 2024 through week 11 of last year. That's a massive sample. He obviously had that PCL injury, one that we'll get to with Ricky Priester. Makes you a little bit nervous, but it sounds like he's back to normal, at least was able to finish the season late last year. Only Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase had a higher target share, which is almost at 30% over that huge multi-year sample size there. You look at it, you have Zachariah Branch and manufactured touch, slot receiver, Jan Dodson, who hasn't really done much. Old media Zay Flowers, that's it. Like Drake London does not get drafted next to Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb at the end of round one. I'm not sure if he should just because it's the Falcons and not those two offenses, but in terms of targets, Drake London is matching all of the first-round wide receivers right now and you can get him like usually pretty late into the second round. Now he is in an interesting spot though where in your redraft leagues he's going in that pocket of Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Chase Brown, then at Drake London, Amari Cooper, and Derrick Henry. So, and Ken Walker a little bit later. So, he's like the bookmark or the sandwich meat between all of those running backs. And that's a fascinating one because he's on an island by himself when we talk about these wide receivers. It is difficult for me to click his name. I'll be honest, because of the quarterback play that's tied to him. It is Tua. It is Michael Penix. And while I like Kevin Stefanski, so often with these play callers, they like quarterbacks that have the same style. Tua and Penix have like totally opposite styles here. One guy wants to throw it outside the numbers and down the field in Penix. Tua, it's mostly short and in the middle portion of the field. So that is also putting my brain in a blender here a bit.

I think it'll be Tua. He's dealing with a back, a back injury right now. You'd never love to hear [clears throat] that. But Penix is like seems like pretty behind and this is the second or third time he's torn his ACL. So, I think it's going to open up the year. Two. We'll probably see both. I don't think the Falcons are going to be very good this year. Lots of turnover on the offensive line, defense, uh, coaching staff, you name it. I'm just not sure if they're ready.

At the same time, this version of Tua is so different than the wide receiver one seasons that we got with Tyreek Hill. Like, yeah, his his body is now working against him. So, I want to keep that at the top of when thinking, "Oh, well, Tua has platformed some of the best wide receivers in fantasy football." This to me is a totally different version of that. I do think, you know, all those like little quick hitting slants to the slot receiver, that's that fits Drake London's game pretty well.

Okay, let's talk about the Baltimore Ravens next and Zay Flowers specifically. We always ask how a good fantasy asset can become a great fantasy asset. And for Zay Flowers, who is an early fourth-round pick in whatever platform that you use right now, that's about touchdowns. And the easiest pathway to scoring touchdowns are red zone targets. Just 10 red zone targets for Zay Flowers this past season, 17 over the last two years. In fact, Zay Flowers, Drake London's teammate now, who called him his mentor by the way, uh, had more red zone targets and red zone touchdowns than Zay Flowers did last year. Zay has never scored more than six touchdowns in a season despite being the wide receiver 13 in points per game in 2025. So we go from Todd Monken, who you and I really like and love how he evolved this Ravens passing attack and he's done that in multiple places with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Georgia and wherever else. He's very good at his job, but he consistently made Mark Andrews their go-to player in the red zone or Isaiah Likely. So now we go to Declan Doyle and maybe this is Hayden, the time for the reset to happen to get Zay Flowers finally double-digit touchdowns because if that happens, we're looking at a player who again is being drafted as the wide receiver 17, who finished last year as the wide receiver 13 in points per game, as a possible top 10 wide receiver scoring season. And again, the glaring flaw in his profile to get there is so obvious that I think it's possible.

I think it's possible as well. You just look around the league, there's some offenses that are scheming up some touches to undersized receivers. I think that largely explains why his target share is at 16% inside the red zone versus 28 outside the red zone over the last couple seasons. Um, but the yards, the yards are there. Wide receiver 13 in yards in the last two seasons when Lamar Jackson's thrown over five passes per game. It's literally just the touchdowns. We're running out of options to to score these touchdowns at this point. And that's with Derrick Henry healthy all those seasons. If something ever happens to Derrick Henry, obviously you just kind of uh scheme up some things. So I'm looking at like Rashee Rice gets a bunch of targets down there. Like it doesn't have to be the biggest uh ball winner types. You can manufacture some touches. Olamide Zaccheaus is another good example of just that.

And I even threw in Amon-Ra St. Brown, who Ben Johnson coached and Declan Doyle just coached with Ben Johnson last year and there is a size discrepancy there. I mean, Zay Flowers is 5'9". So again, there's a slight gap, but use some of that, you know, use some of the motion, use some of the stacks, use some of the quick moving routes in that condensed field versus, you know, the passing attack that they had in that area last year. And so again, just six touchdowns for a career high for Zay in the past. It's a much different universe we're going into if he scores eight, 10, heck, even 12 scores because that automatically puts him in the top 10 in points per game.

Next, the Buffalo Bills. Um, I'll talk wide receivers here again, Hayden, because ever since the Bills traded away Stefon Diggs, their highest scoring pass catcher in a single season was 9.6 points per game in half PPR scoring. That was wide receiver 41 per game, Khalil Shakir, back in 2024. Uh, that's despite spending the 33rd overall pick on Keon Coleman, a first-round pick on Dalton Kincaid, a third-round pick on Amari Rodgers. And so now if we're talking about their new quote-unquote wide receiver one, that's DJ Moore, right? Being drafted as the wide receiver 26 on Yahoo despite coming off the worst season of his career. And that's not an argument. I mean, over the last three years, that's dropped down his yards per game from 80 to 57 down to 40 yards despite being in a Ben Johnson offense this past year. And so I'm a bit nervous of DJ Moore totally paying off his price. The high-end outcomes are absolutely there and it can make me look like a fool, but over the last two years, this Buffalo Bills team has been 25th and 30th in dropback rate and 22nd and 30th in percent of yards via passing. So, is DJ Moore good enough at this point in his career to change Joe Brady and to change that offense right now in the Buffalo Bills that, you know, scores a lot of points and wins a lot of games? I ask that question because I think I know my answer and it's not a great one.

I I think I have a little bit more optimism just because all those stats that you mentioned were because, you know, it's Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir and the Khalil Shakir pass game could only get you so far just the way that he's utilized. I think they're going to throw him the ball underneath. They have to make this thing work because of the investment that they put in. It was not just the draft capital. It was the extension beyond it. Some of it with DJ Moore always seems to be just like about motivation and buy-in and stuff. You'd hope that he feels pretty comfortable with the Buffalo Bills, Josh Allen trying to win Super Bowls at this point and clearly being established as the top guy. So, I didn't love the price tag the Bills paid. Right? I am still kind of buying him in Best Ball and on Yahoo right now as a round five pick. I have like realistic boom-bust expectations from him, but I would not be surprised if he looks a lot better, puts in more effort this year just because of the environment around him.

Yeah, I I guess my point is he's being drafted as if everyone is confident that they're going to change and he's going to change his passing attack just from a skill standpoint. I think it's, you know, very possible that we've seen the best of DJ Moore in his career and arguably that was with Joe Brady in Carolina. So maybe they do change and go back to some of that stuff. But again, he's going in this cluster of wide receivers. If we talk about Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson and Mike Evans and Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson, but I kind of just want to draft more than DJ Moore at this point. Um, and I could be totally wrong on that end of the season and it could come back to bite me.

Yeah, there's been huge hits, huge misses from wide receivers changing teams at this kind of age 30 season. I have him parked next to Mike Evans, Davante Adams, and then DJ Moore in my rankings. I feel that's pretty appropriate.

Carolina Panthers. What's going on with Chuba Hubbard? Uh, everyone's talking about Jonathan Brooks because he's coming back from the injury. Very exciting. He should be the pass catcher if he's fully healthy. He's on pace to be a week one contributor. And we know that that could be a full overtaking from Chuba Hubbard. But did want to mention this about Chuba. Back in 2024, he played 77% of the snaps. He was the RB12 on RB7 usage. He was the RB4 in rush yards overexpected. Then last year, he gets hurt. Rico Dowdle goes in there and he really struggles uh coming back from injury. Negative 21% rush yards overexpected, which is way worse than it was. Yes. And he just did not look the same. But in the last game of the season, a playoff game where the Carolina Panthers almost pulled off an upset, he finished with two touchdowns and 17 opportunities. He's been like named a team captain at times. So this is one of these situations where I think both things could be true that Jonathan Brooks does come on. He's a real asset here and Chuba Hubbard stays involved as a rusher. To me, last season is largely explained by that injury and people are really discounting what happened two seasons ago when he actually was healthy, was very efficient, and that team was not uh nearly as good. Now, every single day I refresh Twitter and there's a Panthers injury right now. So, you have some explaining to do on that front exactly where we're at with the Carolina Panthers. But, I do think that it's very easy to say Jonathan Brooks is going to overtake Chuba Hubbard. Chuba Hubbard's been playing pretty decent ball whenever healthy in this offense.

I'm even looking at expert consensus rankings uh in half PPR. Chuba Hubbard is the 30th overall back and then Jonathan Brooks is 39. It'll flip. I think it'll flip. Brooks will go.

And on Yahoo right now, I mean, they're still at least three rounds apart. So Yahoo, I think is one of these platforms that you can get Jonathan Brooks at an awesome price uh in the early 10th round as running back 37 compared to Chuba Hubbard's running back 27. But yeah, I mean, this is one of those trends that the longer Jonathan Brooks is healthy and the closer we get to week one, the more and more and higher and higher he's going to be selected. And it's not just fantasy people saying that. Hayden. Cameron Wolfe, I guess now of ESPN and NFL Network. I don't even know how to refer to those people now. Said, quote, "They believe he is not only going to form a one-two punch with Chuba Hubbard, but he is essentially going to be the lead in the backfield if he can stay healthy." I get it. John Brooks is an awesome talent. He was a running back one in his class and was drafted as such. Uh, and the more cuts that he makes and the more impressions that he makes during preseason activities, I mean, this is the first preseason practice he's ever participated in. Yep. And then, and we're here. So, um, I think I'm going to end up with more Jonathan Brooks, at least on Yahoo, than I am Chuba Hubbard.

Yeah. I I think that by the end of training camp, I think that Jonathan Brooks will be going ahead of Chuba Hubbard. And I think in week one, I will be ranking Chuba Hubbard ahead of Jonathan Brooks. And we'll see how it plays out.

Chicago Bears. Romeo Doubs. He was the wide receiver 36 per game last year, dealt with an injury, but he was the wide receiver 18 in usage. He was the wide receiver 22 in targets per game. They just lost DJ Moore via trade. Romeo Doubs, I think he's pretty good. The problem is Caleb Williams has missed him way too often. And then on these 50/50 passes, Romeo Doubs has not either dragged his foot, has not caught the ball cleanly. I can't explain it. Timing has just been a little bit off. But hopefully in year three, this is where it gets fixed. And if it does get fixed on an efficiency basis, he already had wide receiver two numbers in fantasy via his usage. And there's a chance that he's not just a bad inefficient player, that he's actually a good one. Uh, and that's I think one of the most underrated players in the Bears offense this year is Romeo Doubs. I still can't believe he goes so far behind Jahan Dotson. I do think that Romeo Doubs has a good chance uh to matching or even surpassing Jahan Dotson this season.

And you know, we can only go off press conferences and what people say sometimes during the summer and Romeo Doubs' clip talking about his new normal that impacts, you know, fantasy drafters. Uh, again, we are scratching and clawing just to find a morsel of information that we think gives us an edge. Sometimes it works in our favor and sometimes maybe like Malik Nabers, we get bad information earlier in the summer. But regarding Romeo, like he has clarified that he went in the microphone today and said, actually, I was just being honest and I'm doing pretty good right now.

I watched him. He looks good.

Yes. If that's the case, I still think for his size, he is so fluid. The out patterns, the post routes, the corners, all that type of stuff. Now, is he a yards-after-catch demon like Jahan Dotson is in this offense? He's not. But at the same time, as we talked about with Harmon on Monday's show, which hopefully you all watched and enjoyed, uh, it's definitely in the realm of possibilities that Romeo finishes as the wide receiver one on this team. And Hayden, I think you have it ranked that way heading into the year.

Yeah, I I did move him ahead of Jahan Dotson after sitting there and watching all of his targets and a lot of the Bears stuff from this last season. I think his upside would be a T. Higgins adjacent type of player who's we've been drafting at the two-three turn for a couple seasons now.

Yeah. I mean, he just has to be on the right end of variance where passes can't go off his fingertips. He just needs to catch the easy ones that he should have. And then, you know, Caleb just has to be more accurate on those more downfield passes. When over the final eight games, when Doubs was also banged up, 27% of the passes and targets in his direction were deemed inaccurate. Now, that can be up to the person that is charting those things, but I believe it [laughter] pretty freaking high number just based off the eye test.

All right, let's talk about the Cincinnati Bengals here. Look, this offense has been incredible when Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins have all been on the field. Hopefully, that happens again this year. But it does feel like if you read between the lines on what Bengals coaches have said and what beat reporters have said this offseason, that they are going into this as if it is broken and they're trying to fix it, which is interesting because it doesn't feel broken and they really shouldn't change anything. This is what I mean. Okay. So far over the last three years, the Bengals have been 31st in under center percentage of passing plays and 30th in play action with Joe Burrow at quarterback. This then comes from their offensive coordinator, Brian Callahan. Quote, "If you are looking at how are we going to be a really explosive offense, the data will suggest you have got to have a component of your offense that allows you to get under center and attack the defense. Truthfully, yeah, I believe in what those numbers say and we're going to have to explore that part of our offense." We know from watching Hayden that Joe Burrow has not been comfortable with his eyes turned to the defense. He doesn't want to work from under center. He just wants to go shotgun over and over and over again. And so to me, that is noteworthy for a team that we are drafting four players in the top four rounds that has posted tons of production that it seems like they're trying to go into a land of discomfort rather than lean into what has been so successful in the past.

I find it interesting. I don't really recall Joe Burrow ever doing that. And at the same time, I still have full faith that he'll be able to execute it. He's a smart guy. He he understands football to a huge degree and he's got two wide receivers that would be excellent on play action. So like if they do sprinkle that in, I don't think that the results would be bad. So uh, I'm kind of excited about it just to see like, does that mean more Tee Higgins like deep shots sometimes? Like feels like that it comes, comes and goes like right when they entered the league and it was the single high days wherever that safety was there's throwing the ball to the other side. Hopefully some of this play action opportunities you kind of get more of those looks where that safety has a decision. Is it the Ja'Marr Chase side or the Tee Higgins side? And there's really no correct answer.

Yeah, I I can remember and this might have been three years ago, like the opening game of the season against the Pittsburgh Steelers and literally that first series they tried two under center play action shots where Joe Burrow turned his head and he threw interceptions on both. And, you know, they wouldn't be this gun-heavy if Joe Burrow didn't want to be this gun-heavy. And so, I mean, again, the stats have just been simply incredible that on plays with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on the field the past two years, Joe Burrow's completed 72% of his passes for eight yards per pass attempt and a 7.3 touchdown rate. But again, it's like, hey, what we're doing isn't good enough. It's not leading to enough wins, even if that was a defense thing. And they're trying to again kind of catch up to what the league trends are. And I kind of wonder, should they really do that? Because they are doing it apparently in training camp.

Yeah, I I will say I think this is also a credit to the offensive line where they trust these guys under center to block it up for the third and fourth down. And I do think that there's some faith in that like Amarius Mims, for example, uh, up-and-coming tackle prospect. If he's really good, then you can survive under play action, wait for plays to develop where before Joe Burrow didn't want to get hit, rightfully so. He's been murdered, uh, and get the ball out quickly where maybe now they have a little more trust uh, across the board.

Cleveland Browns. I gotta be honest, it's tough to talk about the Cleveland Browns here, but I'm going to do it. Uh, on Yahoo right now, the second latest wide receiver one in drafts is Cedric Tillman. Okay, just in terms of the first wide receiver selected for each team. And then the second wide receiver selected each team, David Njoku, is the third latest. I mean, Hayden, you know this. Typically, we obsess over rookies and especially rookie wide receivers and especially ones that were the 24th and 39th overall picks. Yet, no one wants them this year. And I I totally get it. I totally get why. Apparently, Deshaun Watson has looked horrible to start training camp. Maybe his poor offseason has seemingly opened the door for Cam Newton to come in and actually compete for the job. But like when I look at this, I don't think Todd Monken can come into this offense and say, "Well, we're just gonna play ball control, run the football." Because I think there's a major impact of trading away Myles Garrett, even if you got Jared Verse in return, that they're just not going to be able to play in as close of games as they did last year, where actually the defense only kept them close, but legitimately won them contests last year. So, this team is going to have to throw the football much more often. Now, that led to 32nd in completion rate last year, 31st in passing yards, 31st in yards per pass attempt, and 30th in touchdowns. So, it might not be good, but I do think at least one of these rookies, and they're quite different, uh, is going to get a decent-sized volume share that their draft capital right now does not indicate.

I really hope it's Cedric Tillman, and that's how I would project it. He's safer in that you can manufacture touches for him. And we've seen, uh, I think the ESPN reporter has mentioned it's been end-arounds, it's been screens, it's been a little bit of everything on top of the deep ball. I thought he was excellent in all those capacities. You can look at his special teams work even on top of that. So, if there's somebody that's like less reliant on their quarterback getting the ball, it does feel like it'd be Cedric Tillman, where David Njoku, more of a red zone threat, how many red zone chances are we even get for the Cleveland Browns? So, I don't have that much faith in David Njoku this year. Like the other interesting one is Jerry Jeudy. We're talking about a, you know, former first-rounder who has 1,200 yards. He's 27 years old and like nobody wants to draft him. Once again, like you said, I get it. But like that's like another interesting name where like if we had any semblance of offensive line or quarterback play, I think a couple of these guys would be top 120 picks. We can't get any of them in there.

Yeah. Like if Joe Flacco was the quarterback for this team this year, I guarantee you, you know, Cedric Tillman would be drafted much earlier than this. But again, I understand why he's not. And he's, I think, going to be one of these players who probably is frustrating through the first few weeks and is maybe more of a late bloomer as the season goes along. Final question though, maybe the approach is to bypass the sixth-round tight end. Again, sixth round is a pretty penny when Harold Fannon's going around Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Carnell Tate, Caleb Williams, Cole Kmet, all these guys. And if you want to take a shot at all on this offense, it is in Cedric Tillman or one of these other rookie wide receivers. The thing that shocked me the most on Yahoo ADP looking at these draft, the draft board is how early that second wave of tight ends goes. It's fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh round. On other formats, it's much later than that. My translation to that is, you know what, Brock Bowers in round two is even looking better. If all if Harold Fannon goes round six, you know, just pay the premium on Brock Bowers.

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All right, Dallas Cowboys. All right, Javonte Williams time. Uh, how good does he actually have to be to matter in fantasy? I think the answer to that is he doesn't even have to be very good. The Cowboys were second in neutral pace last year. They're projected for the sixth most points in 2026 according to the betting markets. The entire coaching staff returns. The entire offensive line is back. It's still George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott. Like nothing's changed. It's the same backup running backs behind him. By the way, the guy that has the highest odds of breaking out is Jaden Blue, who is very undersized, a pass catcher, never was an early down threat, even back in college, way tinier than Javonte Williams. And at the goal line last year, uh, goal line success rate, RB1 overall for Javonte Williams. In EPA per carry, uh, he was the RB3 among backs with 10-plus carries per game as well. The reason why he was not a better finisher is because his receiving numbers were like the worst in the NFL. Um, maybe that regresses, maybe some of the goal line stuff comes back, but where he's going right now in drafts, which is now like the fourth round, uh, in a lot of leagues, second in pace, sixth in scoring, like he just has to be out there. And I don't think that Jaden Blue is a real threat to where he got you the fantasy points, which was just scoring a bunch of touchdowns and carrying the ball 14 times a game. I guess my question to you is if you're spending a top three round pick on Javonte Williams, which right now he's even going ahead of Breece Hall over the last few days on on Yahoo. Do you think Javonte has it in him right now? Both from an individual standpoint and maybe even more so from an individual standpoint to be like a big win, a big win player because I, I think I have more concerns about that than you do.

So he was the RB8 in expected points, RB13 in points last year. I think that he's probably in that he finishes the RB10 this season. I will say that doesn't sound that sexy. Getting the RB10 at the round three-four turn, like is a pretty big win. Like a lot of those wide receivers we like are going to bust. Um,

Yeah, but at the same time, we've seen Malik Nabers like score as a top 10 wide receiver. We've seen Tee Higgins score as the wide receiver four in points per game.

Do not take either of them.

Yes. Do not take Javonte over either of those guys. Malik Nabers should go at the end of the second round at this point. Uh, but I think a lot of people are gonna start touting him as a really bad pick. He's gonna go in the fourth round. And I'm just looking at this, I'm like, somebody has to overtake him to be a dead zone running back when you're on a team that's gonna be top five in plays and top five in points.

Yeah, I would not call him a dead zone player. Um, I just, I kind of would call him a small win player. Like owning 82.4% of the offensive snaps inside the 10-yard line last year. It's about the same just overall in terms of snaps. Um, and then you finish as what, the running back 13 points per game. He can finish as the running back 12, I think this year, but you're drafting him as the running back 16. It was also on my radar, and maybe this changes this year where they would take Javonte out in pure pass situations for like Hunter Henry.

Yeah. Uh, that was probably because, you know, he was playing every other snap in the game because they couldn't get Jaden Blue on the field. By the way, Jaden Blue is going to look really good in July. Every single year, he's gonna look awesome in July.

Okay, next up for me is the Denver Broncos. Let's stick on this running back train. Big question, Hayden. What if this is the year that J.K. Dobbins stays healthy?

What if? What if?

In Sean Payton's entire time as head coach, this is one of my favorite stats ever with the Saints, with the Broncos. No single running back has ever hit 250 carries. And we're talking about big ones, right? Anywhere from Mark Ingram to Reggie Bush to Alvin Kamara to whoever he's had. Javonte Williams at the Denver Broncos, too. No running back has ever individually hit 250 carries. But guess what? Of course, J.K. Dobbins was on pace for that last year. Now, you can say J.K. Dobbins is on pace for a lot of things during his career, a career year every single year, and it just doesn't happen because a dude can't stay on the field. I mean, he's missed 54 games in five seasons. He's missed at least four games in every single season that he's played. But man, when he touched grass last year, he was averaging the seventh best yards per carry. He was fifth in explosive run rate. He was 16th in yards after contact and was quite good at avoiding negative runs. The first stanza of the season, 15 carries per game. Look, I get it. Again, he's not going to stay healthy. He's not going to be out there. But where he is going right now, running back 35 on Yahoo, Hayden, we talk about strategy all the time, how we like to open with two straight running backs, but let's say you go with Brock Bowers and then somehow A.J. Brown falls to you in round three and you're finding yourself in kind of no man's land with your roster at running back. I think in terms of a zero or hero running back strategy, J.K. Dobbins, where he's going on all these platforms at this moment, is one of your best bets for at least the first half of the season.

Yeah, on pace for 1312 rushing yards by themselves last year. Um, that was through 10 weeks. Like that wasn't like a small sample. 10 weeks is a pretty good sample. The offensive line is all back. They had some backups that played last year on the interior. Those guys are back in the mix. There's better depth there. I think the Broncos are going to put up a ton of points. Like you add Jaylen Wright, this offense already been pretty functional with a very young, or not, I shouldn't say young, NFL inexperienced quarterback in Bo Nix there. Uh, J.K. Dobbins, if he stays healthy, will finish as an RB2 this year. And I think even if he plays 10 games, like what he just did last season, I still think he would be paying off this price tag. You don't take zeros for the rest of those weeks in in redraft, you throw somebody else in the lineup. Um, I do like him straight up over Audric Estime at this point.

Now, I said all those things where he ranked top 10, top 15 in per carry metrics. That still only put him as the running back 25 in points per game. And he had zero weeks inside of the top 10. And it's because he just doesn't catch passes. It's what you said. Yeah. Right? Like Audric Estime was the pass catcher. They also do the screen stuff last year with Marvin Mims and dear Lord, I hope that goes to Jaylen Wright this season. And Jonah Coleman also can work in the passing game too. So, I don't expect that area to to thrive anymore. But again, a zero running back approach or a hero running back approach, running back 35 on on Yahoo right now in the ninth round, uh, is is one that I'm willing to take the risk on.

Yeah. Like week one rankings, like he'll be pretty close to Quinshawn Judkins, Bucky Irving, you know, like those type of guys. Like I, I think that's probably in the redraft rankings week one. That's probably where he's going to line up as.

Yeah. And you know, two years ago I was really in when J.K. Dobbins was a a Charger and again, he paid off very early on and until he didn't, until he didn't. But he paid off. But like he paid off. Like he paid even if you get injured, you can still, you can still pay off if the ADP is low enough. You know, writing this Denver Broncos nugget, I realized maybe on this show, we haven't talked enough about Jaylen Wright where on every other show that we appear on together, we talk about Jaylen Wright. So maybe I need to change that in the near future because Jaylen Wright is absolutely one of my favorite picks on the board right now.

Yeah. Yeah. If, if, you know, if Marvin Mims and those guys are getting more than a screen per game, I think Jaylen Wright is going to do all right.

Detroit Lions. All right. Sam LaPorta was the tight end 15 in expected half PPR points last year, 5.4 targets per game. That was through 10 games, then had his back injury. He needs more volume than that to pay off this ADP. But damn is he good. He was second in success rate, fourth in EPA per target, fifth in yards per target. He's somebody that you can scheme up underneath. He can also threaten to that next level. Uh, and if you just look at the Lions, tons of dome games. Every other team in this division is going to put up points. Their schedule, it looks pretty tough in terms of the offenses they face, but their own defense is really bad. If something ever happens to anybody else, there is an upside path. It's just the back of my mind, like you're drafting somebody as what the tight end five, six, seven, and in expected points last year, he was tight end 15. So, he has to overcome that in some way. I think there's enough outs to paint that picture. Um, so I really like his price tag like in the best ball streets. The Yahoo one's a little bit up, uh, just because all the, the tight ends are priced up, but he does look pretty appealing. Like him versus Harold Fannon. I think that there's an upside case to kind of hit with Sam LaPorta, even if the baseline outcomes are a little bit lower.

Yeah, we went on Yahoo Fantasy Forecast Harmon show and again, I probably haven't said this enough on our program. I'm in love with Sam LaPorta this year. Like when you look at the three quarterbacks who have targeted tight ends at the highest rate over the last three seasons, two of them played for Drew Petting and one of them played for Kevin Stefanski. That's Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, and Jordan Love at 34% and 32%. So yeah, you guys can say that that's a Trey McBride stat or that's a Harold Fannon stat, even a David Njoku stat before that and all that type of stuff. Uh, I also think it's a Norv Turner, Kevin Stefanski, Drew Petting coaching tree stat. And so while Amon-Ra St. Brown is absolutely going to get his and be the person in this passing game and Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta, hey, I really think they're going to battle here for the second highest target in this offense. And again, just anecdotally, when it's been a really good Sam LaPorta week, it hasn't been great for Jameson Williams and vice versa. So I'm really intrigued to see what happens here with LaPorta in an offense that we just saw. Take Trey McBride to the absolute moon.

The other name I'll throw out, we never talk about Jared Goff in fantasy. He has finished as a top 10 fantasy quarterback. And like this is the type of year where the defense has fallen apart to such a degree in the secondary and right now LaPorta, Amon-Ra, having normal offseasons, normal training camps moving forward. Like this could be the season where Jared Goff throws for 4,500 yards, 40 touchdowns, and every single game is a 30 to 28, 28 shootout where like the answer was yes across the board with everybody. And one more note, this trend of heavier personnel and 13 personnel sets, uh, Drew Petting was earlier than Sean McVay on this. I mean, he has the third most plays of 13 personnel over the last two seasons, including the second most passing plays and tied for the most 15-plus yard passing plays out of it, uh, with 28 of them. And if that's the case, and Amon-Ra St. Brown is the ISO wide receiver, guess who is the other lead pass catcher in those moments with those explosives? That is Sam LaPorta. So just talking with Colt McCoy when I used to do a show with him. He's been at training camp with Drew and was like, "Yeah, the primary read in a whole bunch of our stuff is the tight end."

Interesting. That's Colt.

Follow Colt.

Next, the Green Bay Packers. Pretty similar not to Sam LaPorta. Tucker Kraft was the tight end one on tight end eight usage last year. Some really crazy per route uh stats coming your way. Plus 0.91 EPA per target. Easily, like not even close. Led all tight ends. It's almost impossible to average 11.4 yards per target when your average depth of target is at 4.5. Like that is a lot of yards after the catch. And that's because he's so explosive. Typically when wider, or when tight ends are in that kind of underneath role, which Tucker Kraft historically kind of has been in, uh, you can only average about nine yards per per target. The fact that he was at 11 yards per target is completely ludicrous to the point that that's impossible to repeat this year. But at the same time, the only players that do such a thing are some of the freakiest uh tight ends in the NFL. So, I'm struggling with Tucker Kraft because of like stats like this where you can explain the upside. And at the same time, I'm looking at a negative regression candidate coming off a torn ACL. But the guys that historically come off torn ACL and end up

Doing all right, are the freak athletes in the prime of their careers? That was what we saw with Malik Neighbors this offseason. I do think that Tucker Craft seems on pace. So, I'm very conflicted here what to do with them because I can see this one going either way.

He's the closest thing we have to George K.D. in the NFL, I think, in terms of someone who catches a pass short or intermediate and then just runs over people after the catch. Yep. I mean, how he wins in this offense with so many vertical routes and then he's kind of like the underneath outlet and then he can turn a short reception into a longer gain because these defenders can't tackle him on first contact is one of one stuff in the league.

I hope he still has that in him. And like you said, this is that difficult area where you and I just want to draft Brock Bowers as much as possible this year. I'm actually fading Trey McBride, especially at his 212 price tag on Yahoo, but that's a conversation for another time. Uh, and then you get and I'm gonna talk about Tyler Warren here in a moment. And then we just talked about Sam LaPorta and then there's Kyle Pitts and all this stuff. So, it's it's I think really difficult to rank Tucker Craft, especially if you believe that George K.D. can also have a good season and he might be even the best value going in like the ninth round at this point, too.

Yeah, it's it's a really difficult position. I think I do like the prices of Loveland and Bowers the most. I like Kyle Pitts a lot, but yeah, Tucker Craft, I will say this, watching him out there, he's not wearing some big bulky knee brace like a lot of these guys coming back from injury, like Ricky Pearsall, for example, like he was still wearing stuff on his knee. Uh, Tucker Craft right there as he's like warming up and doing some individual drills. He does not look like somebody coming off a torn ACL, like what the hell is even on his leg? He seems like a little bit ahead of schedule. Um, and at the same time, his injury did happen uh clean halfway through the season. So, um, I would not be surprised if September's a little bit of a ramp-up and then from that point forward, he's back as a fringe top five guy.

Yeah, Tucker Craft recently said that he will probably come off the active PUP list very soon.

Let's go. Very soon. So, that would be great.

Next is the Houston Texans. So, a section of our video with Ryan Paganetti got cut out, but I think this is a perfect opportunity to bring it up that in the 19 games that Nick Caserio has been a play caller in the NFL, his ball carriers rank dead last in explosive run rate and fifth worst in terms of dead run rate, which is just a runner gets zero or fewer yards in that area. Uh, there's a lot to unpack here with both those stats, so I'll try to do it. First, the sample size, right? It's very small. It's just 19 games. Okay. Second, you can also argue that that's an offensive line stat, which the Texans tried to remedy this offseason. They have a new starting left guard, a new starting center, a new starting right tackle. You know, their left tackle is now into year two, so on and so forth. They also added a run-blocking tight end, and Marlon Mack on day two. And also, the running backs last year were Nick Chubb and Woody Marks. So take that for what you will, but I do want to use that to express maybe just a little bit of hesitation here with David Montgomery because the number one selling point on David Montgomery is volume, volume, volume. And that's it. It's not age. It's not really explosiveness. You can't say it's the play caller. You can't say it's a cohesive offensive line either. And so right now you're having to make that leap of faith with David Montgomery as a fifth-round pick on Yahoo in, you know, an area of the draft where we love the tight ends, we love the quarterbacks, we we love the wide receivers on top of it. So right now I'm kind of terming David Montgomery as kind of a desperation running back play and a volume-based. And Hayden, that just has screamed running back dead zone in the past.

It really has. Uh, the Lions last year scored 28 points per game. The Texans this year projected for 23 and they have not been hitting 23 the last couple seasons as well. You you mentioned it, they have an entirely like new offensive line, but it's also like Wyatt Teller who's like on fringe retirement, Caelan Rutledge, a center moving to center as a rookie, Ed Ingram, like we could be honest about like what Ed Ingram is, and then Braden Smith like kind of up and down because of injuries. Uh, that's an offensive line like like that's like the new additions that they got going on. It's like not an answered position even if they're like uh switching those guys around. And then we've had like some like weird comments from like different reporters about like Woody Marks is going to split reps. What does that mean? They're trying to define what split reps means. I think it's going to be David Montgomery on early downs, Woody Marks on passing downs. And then if Woody Marks isn't performing or if uh David Montgomery is not performing well as a rusher, then they'll just give um more work towards Woody Marks. I draft a lot more Woody Marks than I do David Montgomery and I don't even like what I've seen from Woody Marks on tape.

Yeah, typically you wouldn't use the word fragile profile with David Montgomery because, you know, he's sturdy and dependable, but I'm kind of looking this as a fragile profile and I don't think people are viewing it in in that way.

Are we supposed to count the college carries you get for, you know, like tread on the tires? Cuz this dude touched the ball at Iowa State a bajillion times on top of that. He's one of these guys where it's like at some point it's going to fall apart.

And look, the Texans could be one of the best teams in the NFL. You know, it it that is the case. Like their defense is top one, top two, top three. Argue with yourself. And then if C.J. Stroud bounces back uh after his playoff performances, we get Nico Collins and maybe some version of Tank Dell and all that type of stuff, then this could be awesome. But if not, then like as you said, Woody Marks is going to take a whole bunch of the passing role work from David Montgomery. And that leads you into, I think, some tricky scenarios that is not kind of being baked into his profile right now.

I like "argue with yourself." That was a good one.

Indianapolis Colts. Here it is. There aren't many opportunities for me to talk about my guy Tyler Warren, so I'm going to take this as another one. Um, I think he is easily the biggest beneficiary of Michael Pittman Jr.'s departure, even if so many people out there think Josh Downs is. Uh, the Colts were top six in RPOs last year. I think Michael Pittman was also top six in RPO targets. Who are those going to? They're going to Tyler Warren. I mean, he was the tight end three last year in route participation overall last season as a rookie. That's not going down. He had the 11th highest rate of red zone target market share for his team among all wide receivers and tight ends across the league. I don't think that's going down. I think you can argue he's also their best screen receiver at this point. You get the bluff blocks, the split flow action work to get the easy receptions out in space off of play action. So yes, it's definitely a big three at tight end with Brock Bowers and Trey McBride and Cole Kmet, but I would argue that Tyler Warren is in his own tier directly after that and he might be, especially with Alec Pierce, we don't know exactly the timeline of him coming out and coming back from his injury. Um, he might be like the focal point of the passing game for a handful of weeks to open the season.

I think he's the clear tight end four. I would put him in his own tier kind of right after there. I think that Cole Kmet's like a little bit better on film, but that's nothing like going against Tyler Warren and like his own potential. 13 games with Daniel Jones healthy last year, tight end six on tight end three usage. His expected points were right in line with Brock Bowers uh in those Daniel Jones games. If Daniel Jones isn't himself, what would you do as a play caller? Probably get the ball out a little bit quicker. Uh, that's exactly what Tyler Warren's bringing to the table. We talked about like the tush push stuff, like he's somebody that can kind of get involved there. Like do you want your quarterback tush pushing coming off a torn Achilles? That's how you tear your Achilles.

I mean, if we talk about absolute upside and God forbid something happens to Jonathan Taylor, uh, their goal-line back is going to be Tyler Warren.

Probably. It's not DJ Giddens. Yeah, there's there's a lot of outs is what you're saying here.

There's a lot of outs and uh, I'm with you. Like the fluidity, the wide receiver stuff that Cole Kmet brings to the table. Yeah, aesthetically that's so much better. But guess what? You have a juggernaut running through walls in Tyler Warren. And uh, I think Shane Steichen loves to script up and scheme him up touches and he's going to do that I think a lot to open the season with his quarterback and number one wide receiver uh coming off major injury.

Yeah, I got him ranked in the 60s and like that whole Tucker Kraft, LaPorta, Fant, those are like 80s and 90s in my rankings. So I think it's a pretty big gap between the two. And then on Yahoo, they're all sandwiched together. I would rather just go with Warren.

Jacksonville Jaguars. Uh, we've talked at length about this wide receiver room, so I won't bore you with another conversation of that. So, let's talk about the running backs. Liam Cohen, and I'll send this to producer Weave so he can maybe splice up the interview halfway through what I'm going to say. Uh, but was just asked about this running back room. And he said, quote:

"I think Tank Bigsby is going to continue to ascend. Hopefully, that's the goal, right? I've worked with Chris. I know what he's about. I know what he brings to the table. And that's efficiency. What we're hunting up is efficiency, right? 4.6, 8, 10, 4.6, 8, 10. And then all right, fourth quarter. Now you maybe get him and you can hit something. So we lose Travis Etienne. So we have to evolve our running game."

There's a lot to unpack there, Hayden. Um, personally, this idea that creating explosives and we just want to hit like singles and doubles, I kind of think that's aiming a bit too low, like really low. Um, next part. With that said, in a small sample, Tank Bigsby was efficient last season. Okay, he was 12th in rate of runs that ended in a first down or a touchdown and then was eighth in success rate. However, if you expand the spreadsheets, Chris Rodriguez was even better in those metrics, right? He was fourth in first downs or touchdown rate, third in success rate, and eighth in yards after contact. So, if you really want to interpret everything that he said and the relationships that he had, then that would make you want to draft Chris Rodriguez, who by the way just said, quote, "The plan is to be back for week one." He's been doing individual drills after an offseason procedure on his foot. Um, but it's all a bit like ambiguous right now and I'm not sure we're going to have like a real full answer in week one.

I listened to that quote and when he described Chris Rodriguez as efficient and then said we're looking for efficiency. I was like, I'm going to write that one down. That seems pretty important using the same word. Called him a glass eater as well. They also have history because of the Kentucky days. He was paid more than anyone expected. I remember the free agency period where like it came across and then we saw the numbers afterwards. We're like, "Wow, like he's actually going to be involved." There's a lot of upside with both these guys. To me, every Liam Cohen rusher is going to have high efficiency because Liam Cohen's the man designing it. So, I give Tank Bigsby some credit. And I think the breakaway run rate, if you look at the the film with him,

I mean, how many times was he this far away from ripping off an explosive and he got tripped up?

I don't know how to explain that. Yes. And there's other times where Tank is like he's literally running the wrong way. Like like legitimately the offensive line's going that way, he's going that way. You never get any of that with Chris Rodriguez. So I think Liam Cohen's going to have to decide how much of the variance are we willing to accept with Tank Bigsby because I can just consistently hit a single and a double with Chris Rodriguez.

This is an impossible one to to get right. I personally have been drafting plenty of Chris Rodriguez, buying the dip on the injury. That's another narrative is like the offseason injuries because we're so obsessed and online and you know streaming and and whatnot. I fear that maybe all these like June injuries were like making a big deal and then like, you know, you don't get any fantasy points in August and then they're back on the field on August 15th. We're like, "All right, why did we drop him four rounds again?" And I I do feel that Chris Rodriguez could be somebody that closes the gap here uh in the next couple weeks.

Yeah. I mean, Chris Rodriguez's value right now is the low as it's going to be at the end of the 12th round. Despite all of that, quote, I'm still drafting a lot of Tank. I still believe he is going to get a chance to show the efficiency early on in the season because if he is both efficient, he is also more explosive. And like that's the best of both worlds. And so

in my mind, I believe that Tank Bigsby is going to get the first crack at this and it won't just be like in week one. Hopefully, it's like a multi-week thing. And he has to fail in order for that to happen. And I just trust again this ecosystem to kind of prevent him from failing unless it's him just again tripping over his feet too often.

I will say the margins are really small because Laquan Allen's going to play all the passing situations. Not that Bigsby can't catch passes, but like that third-down role where you're just accumulating receptions throughout the season. Like he's that's not that's not up for grabs. It's like these guys are trying to get the first and second down touches only.

Kansas City Chiefs. Let's talk about Travis Kelce. I don't think a single fantasy show is going to talk about Travis Kelce this entire summer. Uh, so why not use this opportunity? Not long ago, we were drafting him in the top two rounds. You remember that?

Uh, now he's the tight end 10, 91st overall on Yahoo right now. He'll be 37 years of age uh in October, even older than me. Wow.

Uh, cooked.

He was the tight end eight in points per game last season. And again, you're drafting him as a tight end 10.

So easy question. Is it over for Big Tra? I mean, it might be. It [laughter] really might be. He was targeted on a career-low 18.8% of his routes last year. His first season below the 20% mark, according to my buddy Rich Rebar. He's been below 1.5 yards per route run in each of the last two years. He's, this is the most notable, too, scored five or fewer touchdowns in three consecutive seasons. You know this, we've we've talked about it enough, but I have this theory that both Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice can't be good at the same time because they overlap in the same exact area of the field. And I think it's kind of borne out here. It's like zone and underneath routes. And guess what? Rashee Rice is younger, faster, more athletic at this point. So, I think it's even possible the Chiefs run the ball even more. So, oh yeah, Travis Kelce has now found himself again, nearly at age 37, firmly in the touchdown variance tight end realm versus being one of the most dependable target and opportunity guys in fantasy football. He got home in like full PPR last year, but I think that was just like circumstances completely breaking his way. Like both Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice, but like you said, since 2024, 19% target rate for Travis Kelce in the games with Rashee Rice, only four receptions in those games. And that's with like Xavier Worthy not being himself for a lot of those as well. And like you said, Kenneth Walker being uh I think it's going to be the focal point is actually going to like change how the Chiefs approach offense where I can see them being more middle of the pack in pass rate where historically they've been like first, second, or third. I just think those days are a little bit behind us, especially with Travis with Patrick Mahomes coming off of a torn ACL. So, like even like Mark Andrews, I would rather just play he scores 12 touchdowns, he's a red zone threat, and there's like nobody else to throw the ball to with Lamar Jackson rather than like signing up for this, you know, I think fake like reception volume role that we're used to.

Yeah, maybe this is taking it a step too far, but you know, coming off an injury, if Patrick Mahomes can't elongate plays as much as he did previously, too. And Travis Kelce was a demon in those elongated plays and staying under strength as quarterback that probably affects his like sure.

Touchdown variance can go completely in his way like he did with Mark Mark [clears throat] Andrews a couple years ago when he gets you know 12 red zone targets and that equals 10 red zone touchdowns. That's just kind of not the tight end world I want to live in at this point.

Yeah, I agree. I agree.

Okay, I've got two more in a row here. Las Vegas Raiders. We've talked a lot about this Raiders team lately. There's not a lot to say about them because, you know, the names are pretty obvious. Brock Bowers, Ashton Dulin, and Jaylen Naylor. I did just want to reiterate the study that you brought up on yesterday's show when we talked about our top 15 players in fantasy football by Sam Hoppin um about yards before contact and how so often we just attribute that to a poor rushing environment. Um, Sam did some really great work and tried to narrow it down to just isolating which running backs contributed worst to the yards before contact and Ashton Dulin literally scored out as the worst in that department.

Um, he had just as much responsibility for the lowest yards before contact as you know, arguably the worst offensive line in the league. Now, my eyes can kind of tell a different story at times where like he was hit six yards in the backfield and then converted to like a negative two-yard run and all that type of stuff, but uh, that is not where you want to be entering year two and where everyone's taking you with the top 12 overall select.

Dead last, never a good good sign. And that's like accounting for a lot of things like which gap you're going in, how many defenders are in the box, how good the offensive line is, if there's a dual-threat quarterback in the backfield, like all the things that we know that help you out in terms of getting to the first and second level cleanly. He accounts for all that and he comes up dead last. When we did our our second-year running backs show, I brought this up without knowing this this information where I thought he was a little bit indecisive paired with not having the same foot quickness that I'm used to for running backs drafted in this range. And I think those two things kind of running parallel would explain why he's also getting hit before uh or not picking up many yards before he's being hit just because he's pretty slow to get through that first hole. I'm expecting things to get a little bit better. Better coaching, better offensive line, more experience, but um, it's a pretty big leap that you have to take.

Yes. And that's why I actually rank him, I think, as a 17th overall player this year and take a whole bunch of these running backs ahead of him, which is again very different than how people are drafting him right now. Hayden, he did say he stopped eating sugar this offseason to get in better shape and improve his cardio. Quote, "I didn't feel like I was in good enough shape last year." Does that change your mindset at all?

Um, I'm glad he's doing that. Uh, he's Yeah, he touched the ball a lot at Boise State. Rookie season probably was one from hell. Like you don't get any offseason time at all. So he he has to play better. I'm expecting him to play better and still he has to play a lot better for him to pay off a he's a first-rounder right now.

Los Angeles Chargers are next. Uh, I just wanted to reiterate one of the topics that I discussed with Ryan Heath back I think on June 5th. That show posted. Go watch it if you haven't. Um, as it relates to Ladd McConkey, one of my favorite picks on the board this year. We like wide receivers on teams that use heavier personnel because bigger bodies, fullbacks or tight ends in this case mean that more passes are funneled to the better pass catchers on the field in those moments, which are typically the wide receivers. So for example, and Ryan wrote this up, 51% of Jaxon Smith-Njigba's breakout season last year came from two wide receiver sets despite those snaps only equaling 38% of his routes. I think Ladd McConkey across the NFL could be the player that sees the biggest change in that department. Only 10% of his routes were from sets fewer than three wide receivers on the field last year. 10%. In comparison, Jaylen Waddle, 46% of his snaps were with two or fewer wide receivers on the field last year. So, I know that we also have QJ and Trey Harris and Brennan Thompson, your guy, and a bunch of other people on the field. I don't think I have to worry that much about Ladd McConkey coming off the field, but you might have a different version of

No, that's just like really splitting hairs. I think that the two wide receiver set stuff is is a really big deal. There's like many years ago I I ran a study yards per route run and two wide receiver sets versus three wide receiver sets and it was pretty substantial the difference and obviously the same target numbers would uh prove true like you just mentioned with JSN. So, it just he just has to play in them, but there's a lot of of them up for grabs. I think they were the Dolphins since like 2022 were second or third highest in their rate of doing that. And that explains, you know, having a fullback on the field, having that second tight end, those type of bodies, two running backs on the field at the same time, that just means there's going to be two wide receivers. So, I think that Trey Harris and QJ are competing. And I'm hoping McDaniel says Ladd McConkey is my Jaylen Waddle and there's not a Tyreek Hill to get the ball to, and then we can really speed this thing up. So, I think he's appropriately priced where he's at. He's a target of mine in round four. Um, as are like literally every one of those wide receivers. I also like

I mean literally it goes from Tee Higgins to Zay Flowers to Ladd to Jaylen Waddle to Garrett Wilson to me, Puka. Like

if you're doing some type of a salary cap league

that's the range.

Go load up on all those.

Sweep the board.

On all those. And I know some comments are going to say, "Well, Trey Harris is the one that played the ISO wide receiver stuff last year." That was with a different coach. I I don't think that he's going to do that again this year. I I could be wrong. Um, and then also with the Dolphins, like, you know, it wasn't just Aronda Gostkowski and it wasn't just Charlie Kolar. They also added David and Joku and brought in Alec Ingold. So there's a whole bunch of outs for only two or fewer wide receivers to be on the field.

Yes, this year.

They'll be at the top of the league for it for sure.

L.A. Rams.

The craziest Davante Adams stats, um, you guys will know what they are. It's inside the the red zone and outside of it. He had a 27% target share uh inside the red zone and then outside the red zone that drops down to an 18% target share. He got 0% of his targets outside the red zone were screens. So nothing manufactured and outside the red zone for Davante Adams. His average depth of target was almost 16 yards downfield. That's like up there with like Alec Pierce, like some of the highest players in the NFL. It was completely boom or bust in in two ways. One, is he scoring a red zone touchdown? Or two, is he going to come up with something way down the field? And as you can see, uh, on the website that we have here, the production goes way up and down with Davante Adams because of the injuries, because it's red zone touchdowns, or it's downfield stuff. None of the manufactured stuff's going to go to Davante Adams. That's why they have Puka and why they were also number one in rushing success rate. They don't need to be throwing the ball left and right anymore. If they're just going to run duo, create all this uh runway for Blake Corum and Kyren Williams to never make a mistake rushing the ball. That's what they're going to do. So, he's going to be a very volatile. He's like the most boom or bust wide receiver three. That's where we're drafting him. But, I do think that the volatility with Davante Adams is kind of here to stay unless Puka obviously got injured.

Yeah, I mean, when Davante Adams and Puka Nacua were on the field together last year, he outtargeted Puka 31-10 in the red zone and 28-4 just on end zone targets. Again, this this travels with Davante Adams. It was with the Jets. It was with the Packers. It was with the Vikings. Not the Vikings, the Raiders. Like all these places. He's that go-to player when you abandon the run and you just have, you know, hand movements, checks, calls, and boom, your slant routes, your fades, all that. He's scoring a touchdown. Is it on your radar at all that Kyle Shanahan considered and even told Davante Adams that, "Hey, we are looking into this A.J. Brown thing and if we do, we're just going to trade you away"?

I think I mean he's not lying. I think that's pretty accurate. I'd rather have Davante Adams or A.J. Brown than Davante Adams. So like I think there's some truth to that. At the same time, you play your best players, you scheme up the ball, and Davante Adams is clearly their second-best receiver. So, I don't think it matters all that much except that there's like a pretty clear like realization that this is not the like target hog that he was in his absolute prime and that they probably don't want to make him that because he was leaving the field every other play late in the season. So, I think they're going to keep this kind of volatile low volume type of role. It's low volume like within reason. He's still I think going to be a top 30 guy whenever he's healthy. I I do think his game really ages well, you know,

the way Yeah, he sets up corners and finds space and all that type of stuff. Uh, it can age well and it already has.

Okay, Miami Dolphins are next. Look at this just real quick. Okay, look at this ADP board. Beautiful over Yahoo. Devon Achane,

14th overall player. [laughter] You got to scroll all the way down to round 11 and then even more to round 15. Um, I want to lead this off by saying, and hopefully longtime viewers of this show know, I'm obsessed with Devon Achane. I think he is an unsung superstar in the league that is viewed as, you know, just a speed back and he is so much more. Watch him break tackles between the tackles. Watch him break at the second level and the third level. He can do it all. But I do just want to bring up the difference in Devon Achane with Tua and with Mike McDaniel versus now Will Levis and Bobby Slowik since entering the league. Okay, Devon Achane is the running back three in receptions per game at just under four. The running back seven in receiving yards per game and has 13 receiving touchdowns, which is the second most of the position. That was all with mostly Tua and some other quarterbacks. And even if you look at Tua and the other quarterbacks, the splits are very, very bad in terms of his receiving. And I'm afraid it might get even worse here with Will Levis who, yes, in a small sample, only targeted his running backs 10% of the time with the Green Bay Packers. The only quarterback according to Rich Rebar with a lower target rate to running backs over that span were Riley Leonard and Anthony Richardson. Um, and even like when Devon Achane played with Tyler Huntley in Miami, six of his 85 routes he was targeted on at 7.1%. So again, I want to reiterate I think Devon Achane is incredible. He is so clearly the best player on the Miami Dolphins offense, but I do wonder if we are kind of drafting him very, very, very close to his ceiling as running back eight. And it's impossible for him to score as one of the top three, four runners this season because of the environment that he's in.

I hear you. I think that's kind of baked in because if this was the same thing, I would draft him like seventh, eighth overall um as the last couple seasons. So, I think there's a little bit of a discount. I just looked at it last year, the team that caught the the fewest amount of uh receptions per game was the Baltimore Ravens because, you know, they didn't have Lamar Jackson. They have Lamar Jackson to run. Plus, their defense was able to keep them in games. They still caught almost 17 passes per game. I I would like to do this uh as a little um homework assignment. Who other than uh Devon Achane is catching? We have to get to 17 per game. That's the worst in the league. I don't think the Dolphins are going to finish dead last in receptions per game this year just because the defense is so bad. They're going to be, you know, just so many checkdowns late in the fourth quarter. We have to get to 17. Like, okay, I'll give you Greg Dulcich gets four or five of them. Like, we I don't see how he doesn't come out of here with five receptions per game still.

Interesting. Well, I mean, he hasn't gotten five receptions per game, though. So, I I I think that is pushing it. I don't know. Like, I don't think Devon is going to bottom out. I I I don't want to come off with that at all. He's just going in this again area of running backs and we just talked about in our top 15 show that in my brain and Saquon's already going ahead of him hopefully on every single platform but like I think I can make a better case for Kenneth Walker scoring as a top three overall running back this year than I can Devon. Right.

I can walk ahead. I agree.

Yes. I honestly think I can do it with Omar and Hampton.

Yeah, pure upside. But I think that Omar and Hampton just like

He has more bottom-out potential. That's fair.

For sure. Yeah.

Again, we're swinging for the fences here. So, uh, and we talked through all the stuff with Chase Brown, how he has no competition. Allah, Devon Achane, yet he's in a much much much superior offense and he's being selected later. So,

Yeah.

It's this is a tricky one for me. A really tricky one.

It is. He's really good. I think the offensive line's actually good. They have nobody else to throw the ball to. All the rest of the analysis, I'm just choosing not to look at it. I

I I do want to say that Joe Mixon attached to Bobby Slowik did finish as the running back eight in points per game. Again, that's exactly where you're drafting Devon Achane, but that team also went 10-7.

Minnesota Vikings.

Let's go over with Kyler Murray. Um, the Vikings were first in success rate on passes 20-plus yards down the field from 2022 to 2024. I'm choosing not to bring up any 2025 stats with the Vikings pass game for obvious reasons, but across multiple quarterbacks, not just the Kirk Cousins games, it was the most efficient downfield passing uh attack there was on those same 20-plus yard pass attempts since 2022, Kyler Murray was down at 31% success rate. That was 46% with the Minnesota Vikings. Was Kyler Murray not hitting these targets because of a Kyler Murray thing or because he was not throwing the ball to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison with this KOC offense? And I'll even say the Vikings offensive line. I think that's going to be the the major part that swings this Kyler Murray experience because Sam Darnold came into the offense was still taking some dumb sacks, especially in those last couple games there, but was hitting on all the downfield stuff. If Kyler Murray can go from a pretty mediocre downfield passer to a pretty good one in the best environment he's ever had, he's going to walk into fantasy QB1 status uh just because he's going to still run a lot more than those quarterbacks. So, to me, it's it's the downfield passing attack that's what makes this KOC offense go. And looking at the numbers, Kyler Murray was always pretty mediocre in that. He also did not have Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and two quality tackles. I'm not sure if you saw this recent article from Alec Lewis, but he talked to a I think former Cardinals coach um once Kyler Murray signed with the Vikings and he said this. I think you're about to see the best version of Kyler Murray and I'm pissed that I'm not going to get to be a part of it. I'm going to be jealous when he's in a good environment, his headspace is is good, and he shows people who the he is.

Hell yeah. Sign me up, man. Like sign me up. This is just especially in redraft where we don't even have to get through the entire season. If we get 10 weeks of this thing just kind of going together, this is going to be I think a lot of fun. I'm I'm very curious about the Vikings this year just because like they play some of the most fun defense in the league and then when KOC's got these two uh alien wide receivers running down the football field and they have an actual good offensive line, like that should be a lot of fun for Kyler.

Yeah, it would be sweet if they had a running back too to take advantage of that. That'd be awesome.

Jordan Mason's popping up on every single like deep dive analytic. Like Jordan Mason, oh, there he is again.

We talked about him on our running back sleeper show. I believe he he was one of those names because he still fits in that somehow going uh in the 10th round or or later. Um, yeah. Again, Kyler, just face pressure, stand tall, fire through it and over it, and trust the situation because if you put it where KOC wants you to, like good things have happened with far worse quarterback talents, honestly.

Way worse.

Way worse. Way worse.

Uh, New England Patriots are next. Speaking of quarterbacks, uh, we all know that Drake Maye, friend of the show,

finished the quarterback two in points per game last year. He's being drafted right now as quarterback four on Yahoo. I think that varies depending on where everyone is drafting at this point. Just to reiterate what he did last year on throws 10 or more yards down the field, he completed 61% of those passes, the second highest rate for a league-high 13.4 yards per attempt. The league average uh for completion rate was 48.5%. So 12% higher. Not bad. Uh, and to remind you who he's throwing to on those 10-plus yard passes, M. Collins got 33, Kahan Booty got 33, Stefon Diggs got 31, and Hunter Henry got 27. Now he gets A.J. Brown. Even if slightly a diminished version, he still gets to A.J. Brown. He also gets Romeo Doubs and keeps Kahan Booty, who is like an isolated wide receiver, should threaten defenses over and over again from the outside and is doing it in camp so far. So, this is exciting. I mean, it's an improvement for a player who took major strides in year two. Uh, I think the only possible red flag here is how his left tackle was almost victimized during the playoffs in the Super Bowl. And I'm not saying every defense can do that to him, but uh, it did show where like uh, the weakness of this team can be and uh, if they can overcome it for all 17 games. Yeah, it's just the offensive line is the thing that could hold him back on the margins. I think some of those downfield numbers are like bound to regress even if you are talking about an MVP caliber quarterback with with A.J. Brown. I was the more I've like thought about the offense, I think we're just going to see a lot more A.J. Brown in the slot, a lot more crossing routes from A.J. Brown. Like if you think about like Tennessee Titans, like the first like season Tennessee Titans, 2023, when he was 23 and then also like how he was used in college, like that was the type of player that he was. And then recently he's been like X receiver static, you know, like not very fun. I think that just because Kahan was so good down the field last year. Romeo Doubs an outside player for a lot of his reps. Like I think you're going to see a lot more crossing routes from A.J. Brown, which I have noticed in the training camp clips. Uh, I've really struggled with how to rank May, Daniels, Burrow, Hurts. Like it's impossible.

Totally same. Uh, and it's still the group I pick from a lot if I'm not taking Kyler Murray. You know,

I kind of just let the receivers I've drafted before, you know, make that decision, you know, if I have T. Higgins and Burrow, you know,

that's fair.

All right, New Orleans Saints next, which by the way, as we are recording, uh, Chris Olave gets his extension.

All right, well deserved there. I got notes on the running back room and kind of the team as a whole here. Saints were first in neutral pace last year by a wide margin and just want to bring up their offensive line with that. Both their tackle spots promising first-round talents including their left tackle, Trevor Penning, who I really liked as a prospect. Had a nice rookie season. They had him in isolation a lot and he was kind of holding down the fort. Two returning players on the interior. We can argue how good both of them are. I think one of them is, one of them isn't. And then they added also a left guard from the Buffalo Bills, just kind of a floor-raiser veteran type out there. That's a pretty good offensive line for a team that's first in pace. And that's how Kellen Moore has called his offenses for a long time. So I don't think that Travis Etienne has to play all the passing down snaps to pay off as like an upside RB2. I think Alvin Kamara returning takes some of like the complete upside appeal from him. But he's cleared almost 1,400 total yards in three or four uh of his NFL seasons. And you know that was like, you know, Doug Peterson, some of the worst offensive lines in the league have been Jacksonville over the last couple years. I think we're going to a faster-paced offense, the best offensive line is in his career. And I know that he's not everyone's favorite, he's not my favorite running back either. I know Kamara's going to catch some passes. And I still look at the numbers, I'm like, the amount of carries he's going to get and I think he's going to get all the goal-line work. I still think he's going to pay off as an upside RB2.

Yeah, it's interesting. I mean, when free agency hit and then the NFL draft hit, I was pretty certain that Alvin Kamara would not be on this team. And not only is he on the Saints, even when he takes a pay cut, he's still getting paid a hefty amount. So, I almost have to refactor in my brain how I'm thinking about this running back room. And I don't know if it's as simple as like two-thirds and one-third. Maybe it is, but

pass downs, run downs. I think it's like almost as simple as that. I mean, Kamara was so bad running the ball the last couple seasons and yeah,

he's always talked about like I'm okay being like the number two role and

Yeah, I mean, this is just training camp reports. We did have a report that Kamara and Travis Etienne are splitting first-team reps at running back and all that type of stuff. So, we're going to get all of that buzz

heading into week one. I It's just up to you all to decipher it.

I think week one's going to come and then we're like, yeah, and he touched the ball 18 times and he's going to do just just all right.

Right. The contracts would suggest that.

Yes. Okay, New York Giants.

Jackson Dart was the number one in passer rating on plays excluding their first read throws. So that's a little bit of the scramble effect. That's a little uh off-platform throws. I remember many Darius Slayton drops on these out-of-structure plays. The reason why I bring that up is because one, Jackson Dart has been really good as a rusher. Second most EPA uh as a rusher among quarterbacks only behind Josh Allen last year. And I mentioned the excluding first read throws because he's going to have some first read throws in this offense because he didn't play with Malik Neighbors last year and he's going to be out there. So, um, at one point in the offseason when I was definitely reading the reports and seeing like Malik Neighbors might not be himself coming off that uh second uh cleanup uh surgery. Now I'm at the point where I'm breaking ties in favor of Jackson Dart because Malik Neighbors is going to be out there. So like as you know, we lose Ricky Pearsall like I move Brock Bowers down like now all of a sudden like Jackson Dart is kind of in that range. Patrick Mahomes coming off of injury. Jackson Dart now has got his primary weapon back. I'm looking at the offensive line. Add Francis Mauigoa. Like I I do think there's reason now that Malik Neighbors is back in the lineup that Jackson Dart can be treated as somebody that you can start in week one of fantasy drafts. It's like one of the reasons why I think in redraft leagues spending that that second-round pick on Josh Allen. I think it's hard to make the math work because there's so many different options kind of in this tier.

I will say 42.5% of his fantasy points last year came from rushing. Uh, and he had the same passing points per game as Cam Ward did last season. So, that has to change this year, right? I think that math is going to change this year. The second phase throws that you're talking about, honestly, one of his best plays was allowing the pass rush to fly up the field, kind of not drop his eyes, but climb up in the pocket, draw the linebackers, and then throw it over top of them to one of the tight ends.

Yep.

That happened over and over and over again.

Yep. I do wonder if defense

Are going to start catching up to that and on to that because I mean truly, uh, when he had starts, and especially against like the Philadelphia Eagles, he hit like multiple of those per contest. So, uh, he's a fascinating player for me to enter year two because as maybe bad as Brian Dabol had this team in close wins and losses last season, I do think Brian Dabol allowed Jackson Dart to play free and, uh, did incorporate a lot of the Old Miss stuff into it to make him feel comfortable. And I'm just wondering how and what Matt Nagy is going to do here.

>> Yeah. Allowed sacrifice. It's it's kind of a, a [laughter] tough blend between the two.

>> Yeah, that's fair. All right. Next, New York Jets. Let's talk about Garrett Wilson. I mean, I feel like we haven't talked about Garrett Wilson one time this offseason.

>> Um, and I like Garrett Wilson. Like, other seasons, and it's been at the correct times, I've been advocating to not draft Garrett Wilson. Uh, I'm in on him this year.

>> All right.

>> I mean, he did he did lead the Jets with 395 receiving yards last year.

>> I think only playing six games. But, uh, Jesus.

>> We move on.

>> I'm not a Frank Reich guy, though. Okay. With that said, the last full season of Frank Reich calling an offense, a 33-year-old Adam Thielen caught 103 passes for over a thousand yards and ranked third in team red zone target share at 39%. So again, I have major concerns and questions about Frank Reich being able to feature all these weapons and Kenyan Drake and Omar Cooper as rookies and even Ady Mitchell other than just putting him on the outside and asking to run down the field and being up to date on personnel groupings and shifts and motions. I honestly think like the NFL has passed Frank Reich by. Little doubt that Garrett Wilson is going to get fed opportunity after opportunity, not just between the 20s, but also inside the 20s. And he's going in the same exact area of Ladd, Jaylen Waddle, Garrett Wilson, and I think that I absolutely love.

>> Yeah. And some of those seasons where he just was not hitting in fantasy, those defenses were actually like pretty solid. They're they have a lot of turnover on defense, but they also like lost some of their best players. Like they're they're really reliant on like David Bailey having a really good season as a first round pick. He's a really good player, so I think that he will. But the the entire secondary, it's like Minka Fitzpatrick types. D'Angelo Hall at Nickel Corner, a second rounder who's really tiny. Uh, Noah Wright very boom bust. Like I think the defense is gonna like kind of struggle this season.

>> Interesting. They brought in a lot of veterans to hopefully not make it struggle.

>> Yeah. I mean, they're also kind of veterans on the the contracts they got for a reason. So I think they'll be like some of those Jets defenses were like third, fourth, fifth best in the league and that's like part of the reason why Garrett Wilson was getting home. Maybe this is more of like shootout. Not shootout, but like, you know, it it's a little bit more pressure to put up some points because they can't trust the defense.

>> How how are you ordering that wide receiver group of Ladd, Waddle, Wilson, and Nico?

>> I like Nacua the most and then I like Waddle. Um, and then this next tier is pretty close. I think Zay Flowers versus Garrett Wilson's pretty tough. I don't know. This could be like a four-hour podcast just on that alone.

>> Look at my rankings. I have them ranked. I don't have him like memorize exactly how I'm breaking ties. Um, I know I've really struggled with with all of them though.

>> Philadelphia Eagles.

>> Let's talk about Dallas Goedert just because we don't really get to him very much. Um, lots of stuff going on with uh the Shawn Mannion offense. Obviously, we talked about Saquon Barkley on the show a whole lot. Goedert sat between 3.7 and 4.6 receptions per game in seven straight seasons. Like that's not a very big gap. Last year he did the same. The only difference was last year he spiked for 11 touchdowns. That was a career-high. His uh tight end nine expected half PPR points is a lot closer where I have him ranked, but on some of the drafting sites, including Yahoo, he's kind of pushed down like even much further than that, which is kind of surprising to me because, um, he's still going to be somewhat involved in the offense. Like I think some of the A.J. Brown stuff would filter down to him. I don't think that Eli Stove is going to play all that much. And if he does, I think it'd be like as the second tight end where it's not really like, uh, detracting from Dallas Goedert. And Shawn Mannion, the first play of the uh, of the training camp period was 12 personnel. Uh, which I do think that that would help Dallas Goedert out a little bit as well. So I think he's fine like versus him versus Kelce and like Isaiah Likely now that we have Malik Neighbors. I I'm kind of gravitating towards Dallas if you're like truly punting the position off this year.

>> Yeah, I brought him up in our sleeper tight end show because, yeah, he's going tight end 12 on Yahoo, but in best ball formats, he's going as tight end 15.

>> I love that price.

>> Yeah, I mean, it's easy math, right? Like, we want to target tight ends who have a chance of being a top two pass catcher in their offense. That's never been easier for Dallas Goedert to do in this offense than with A.J. Brown gone. And like now you're battling Maalik McLaurin, Dantavian Wicks, and I guess Eli Stove for that. So.

>> Yeah.

>> It's also possible with Shawn Mannion who just coached with the Green Bay Packers who set up a whole bunch of and the strengths of Tucker Kraft's yards out of the catch. So I know he's 31 and he doesn't move like Tucker Kraft anymore. But, um, yeah, we even talked about the fake tush push stuff to get him those goal line touchdowns too. That's the wrinkle.

>> Yeah, I like it. And by the way, Jalen Hurts, I think looking at him, he's always ripped. He looks really lean and like jacked. Like there's sometimes where I think Jalen Hurts at times could look a little bit puffier, which I totally understand because of how often he gets hit. Right now at training camp, this looks like best shape of my life, Jalen Hurts, which, you know, you love to see.

>> Well, I mean, I remember a couple years ago where I think it was the Dallas Cowboys game. They couldn't throw the ball well at all and he won that one via scrambling and via his rushing.

>> But then there were other times last year it looked like he lost two steps, not just.

>> Yeah. Like Dak. Yeah. Yes. So, I do wonder if he thought to himself, "Okay, I need to get back to actually being a weapon on the ground a bit more often as a."

>> Scram. Just you guys look at him like his face like you can like see like his I mean, obviously it's freaking Jalen Hurts we're talking about. He he looks really ripped right now.

>> He is the most photogenic person in the NFL since Cam Newton retired.

>> Um.

>> He's very handsome.

>> And you know, I would say Jalen Hurts, just from someone that does thumbnails all the time, Jalen Hurts and Michael Wilson are the two most handsome men in the league.

>> Yeah, I agree. I look at I'm a big GQ guy and Jalen Hurts is all over GQ.

>> Pittsburgh Steelers up next. Just a team I want to talk about all the time. Definitely. Last year, Aaron Rodgers had the quickest time to throw with the shortest depth of target in the league. Not the best combo that you want for wide receivers. And that meant that DK Metcalf turned into Michael Pittman. I mean, 55% of DK Metcalf's targets last year were nine yards and shorter. It was just 40% the year before that. 19% of his passes and his targets last year were 20 plus yards on the field compared to 30% the year before that. I mean, a career-high 12% of his targets were behind the line of scrimmage. I mean, DK, as you know through the math, lowest target depth of his career with 55 or fewer yards in 11 of 15 games. So I ask you, what happens to DK Metcalf when he got turned into Michael Pittman and then you just add Michael Pittman who was better in those areas? Like, hey, now I think there is a chance that we look back on this and Michael Pittman just outscored DK Metcalf despite being three rounds apart on Yahoo, right?

>> I got a very similar stat to that. DK Metcalf only had a 15% target share when there was three wide receivers on the field last year. That was a 25% target share when he was the lone wide receiver. Um, and that goes back to this like how many wide receivers. It's easier. There's fewer wide receivers to earn a target. We saw that play out with DK Metcalf and I do think that when there is three wide receiver sets, it's gonna be harder to earn a target and then his targets are going to come way down the football field where Aaron Rodgers doesn't want want to target because they have Michael Pittman. So, I see this one the same way. Um, only thing in the back of my mind is the McCarthy offenses could play quick and the offensive line is good where like there could be just enough volume to kind of like both for both these guys to kind of get home in like a a very like low ceiling way. Um, but historically the McCarthy offenses do run a little hot. Um, so that's like the only positive I can say about the situation right now.

>> Yeah. And if you watch Pittman, it's glance routes, it's RPOs, it's quick hitting slants, it's crossers out of tight formations on boot action and all that stuff. Y so just something on my radar. Obviously Pittman's dealt with some injuries, but it's on my radar.

>> All right, we have five teams left to go. San Francisco 49ers.

>> First of all, I just want to bring up the Ricky Pearsall stuff. I didn't have like notes on him, but this came out yesterday.

>> Yeah, man. All the offseason videos that he was posting had that dang little brace, sleeve, whatever we want to call it. Um, the fact of the matter is like Tucker Kraft doesn't have one right now and not every single player coming back from injury had it. And the PCL injury is just one of these where if it doesn't get right without surgery after a year, you kind of just need to get the surgery. So, um, as of right now, I'm expecting Ricky Pearsall to miss the entire season, which means DeShaun Watson. We have a full video, if you guys are new here, full video on every single rookie that's comes into the NFL, like 10, 15 minutes on a single prospect, looking at their stats and whatnot. Go watch that. Uh, my stuff is gonna be on on.

>> Just can I say one one thing real quick? Just one thing from Matt Maiocco who's covered the 49ers for a very long time. He said, quote, "At this point, I think it's reasonable, rational, logical for the 49ers to not expect Ricky Pearsall to make any contributions in 2026." So, his what PCL just didn't heal correctly. He's going to probably have to get another surgery on it, which really sucks. I mean, I'm not going to talk about Ricky Pearsall until August 10th next year. I I guarantee you.

>> Yeah. Um, and then we get to George Kittle. It's like a very similar situation. He's coming back from torn Achilles as a 32-year-old. He was number one in every single efficiency mark uh for the last two seasons. Like that's been the case for like you pick the sample size with him. His target share is at 16%. Like that is not what elite tight ends get. Usually they're in like the 25%ish range. He has to be really efficient to matter unless everyone else is unhealthy. And, um, there's a couple like nihilist uh reporters that cover the 49ers. They have been saying that Mike Evans does not look very good. Same thing with George Kittle. It's one of these offenses where like.

>> All of a sudden like it's going to be like Watson and like McCaffrey, you know? So, it's just one of these teams where you aim for the upside, but right now the vibes don't seem that great. I'm just drafting a ton of Watson at this point.

>> Yeah. I was hoping you were going to talk about Mike Evans, but, uh, if he hasn't looked great, then well.

>> It's Grant Cohn and he loves to, you know, just be like, "Yeah, this guy sucks."

>> Yeah. I mean, the Mike Evans stuff, he's great until the hamstrings hit, and the hamstrings [clears throat] have buried him for multiple games for like the last four years. Um, I mean, hopefully you all tuned in to our dynasty rankings video after the NFL draft where, you know, DeShaun Watson was going anywhere from like the 206 to 212 in people's drafts and I was like, "No, just take him 13th overall."

>> Uh, also Kaylin Black because Jordan James suffered a broken rib, he's now going to be the number two. Grant Cohn has really liked Kaylin Black. So, you know.

>> Maybe we'll do a uh training camp update next week.

>> Let's see. All right, Seattle Seahawks. You got three in a row here. Go ahead.

>> All right, let's go with Rashid Shaheed. Last year when he got integrated with the Seahawks, did not come, uh, to fruition in terms of the receiving game. Obviously, he's still very important with the special teams stuff, but he averaged 30 yards per game, only 2.4 receptions. That's including the playoffs from week 10 on. Do want to remind people though in the 15 games next to Chris Olave, uh, from 2024 to 2025, he averaged 57 yards per game in that, which would make him the wide receiver 38 on wide receiver 30 usage. I don't think the most likely scenario is that Rashid Shaheed could be a wide receiver four in fantasy, but I do think there's a chance, um, if the Seahawks defense isn't quite as good, if they just have to pass the ball, if it's not the same exact scheme that Clint Kubiak had where everything was going to JSN. Um, I just want to remind people that I think that Rashid Shaheed's still really good at wide receiver. And as a reminder, the Seahawks could have paid Kenneth Walker the same exact money that they gave Rashid Shaheed and they chose to give it to Rashid Shaheed. So, um, he's kind of like a fringe sleeper to me where I think in best ball he like makes a lot of sense, but I think even in redraft, I do think there's a chance where he could be a wide receiver four during by-weeks, injuries, that type of thing, where he's a reasonable guy to throw into your starting lineup.

>> Shaheed appeared in our wide receiver sleeper show. Hopefully, you all watched that. If you haven't, go watch it after this video. Um, I mean, he's even fallen since then. And I think he was the sixth pick of the 12th round on Yahoo at that point and now he's the 133 wide receiver 54. Like, yeah, his targets went down from 22% uh with the New Orleans Saints down to 14% this last year. Like you said, 15 of 26 targets for 188 yards and zero touchdowns in the playoffs. He did have three catches for 78 yards, but man, Jeremy Fowler said Shaheed had a major spring.

>> And more short to intermediate targets are in the pipeline for him this year. And if his competition is Cooper Kupp and not Tory Horton, then there's a chance that we fast forward six weeks in the season and it's freaking JSN and Rashid Shaheed and we're just burning fools in 12 personnel.

>> I think he's a really good out route runner. Can hit the brakes. Kind of like a, you know, version of the Tank Dell like uh heyday for that one season.

>> Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

>> All right, deep dive here. Uh, Bucky Irving came back from injury in week 13. Um, it was a shoulder injury. It was a foot injury. He had the offseason surgery. Bucky Irving's healthy today, but from week 13 on, the Buccaneers had seven carries inside the five-yard line. Sean Tucker had six of the seven. So we have to figure this one out because Sean Tucker is a lot bigger than Bucky Irving. Bucky Irving really struggled in like the short yardage success rate stats this last season after being really good with Liam Cohen the year before. But if Sean Tucker is going to get there at the goal line, the upside chances for Bucky Irving like really get hard to imagine enough to the point where I'm fading Bucky Irving because they brought in Kenny Gainwell for a reason. We all know what that is to catch a zillion passes. They gave him $10 million guaranteed. So I think that's one way we're just not going to see Bucky as involved as the rookie season. And also Liam Cohen is like notorious for being excellent in the uh, the screen game and I don't think that the new staff's going to be able to repeat those marks from his rookie season. And then if Sean Tucker's going to be mixing in for even half the goal line carries.

>> It's hard to make the projections work on top of, you know, he's just at risk of, you know, in the second week of the season if he has a setback to his shoulder, nobody would be surprised. So he's somebody that was really good that rookie season. I'm just like struggling to find reasons to be on him this year. I mean, so so good that rookie season. Um, you know, at least he's not going in round four on Yahoo. He's going in round five on Yahoo, which does make it easier to click that button because again, we've talked a hundred times about those round four wide receivers.

>> In round five though, you still have Terry McLaurin and Luther Burton. You still have Tyler Warren, who we brought up. You still have quarterbacks Jaden Daniels and Jalen Hurts.

>> So, he's in that cluster of running backs with DeAndre Swift and Bucky Irving and Quinshawn Judkins and Dame Montgomery that have flaws. I I actually think Swift is the safest of the group. That's maybe a conversation.

>> I think Swift is like in the the Scatback tier and then it's kind of a tier break to the rest of these guys.

>> I mean, you mentioned it. In order to score fantasy points for running backs, you really need to score touchdowns. Zero touches inside the five-yard line last season and play just two snaps in that area of the field all year long. So, maybe this changes with Zack Robinson and stuff, but at the same time, they do have three ball carriers, three of them. And we don't have Liam Cohen calling plays, that's for sure. Two more to go. Tennessee Titans are up next. Speaking of these running backs, Hayden, I I feel like we haven't talked about Tony Pollard at all this summer.

>> Yeah.

>> And like on Yahoo is going pretty late, right? He's the running back 31, uh, the end of the seventh round. If you do look on best ball sites, he's going a full round earlier. So the 612 and running back 27. So, he might be one of these players that has the largest gap between best ball and redraft, and that always makes me try to figure out which one's right and which one's wrong. Um, he turned 275 touches into over 1,200 yards and five touchdowns last year. If you had Tony Pollard on your team, you didn't feel that at all until super late in the season, like the final four or five weeks,

>> where you didn't even want to start him because you couldn't trust him at that point. But he went nuclear, uh, in that spot. However, that still only equaled the running back 30 in points per game, which is basically where he's going right now again on Yahoo. He was running back 22 in the previous two years. So, I guess my question is like because of the offense, because of the situation that he's in, is this just a small win player or Hayden, do you actually see a potential big win outcome? And when you get those in round six or round seven at running back, it does massive favors for your fantasy team.

>> I can see him finishing as like the running back 24 or so, kind of in that range. I'm expecting the Titans to get a little bit better, but I still think that Will Levis is like very much a project. I have like some long-term faith with him, but I think it's going to take like the next couple seasons to get there. And the offensive line is just it's a it's still a disaster. I think that was like the reason why he had the yardage because they would give him the volume, but he did not have the touchdowns to like make him that relevant. So, I think it also partially comes down to like are we serious with Tyjae Spears or not? Like at some point like they've they've like attempted it then pulled him back then like made him a receiver and then never the rushing stuff like.

>> Well, and now you have D'Ambra who has not coached him before. Like I I like Tyjae Spears a lot. There were moments the previous season at the end of the year that he like really flashed as a pass catcher, but, um, I don't know. Like are you clicking Tony Pollard's name this year?

>> I am because I want my running back in my flex and that kind of I like uh Jaylen Warren in that range. I like kind of Pollard in that range and then Chuba is going to fall to me and then I think I'll probably draft some Chuba. Um, I kind of like those guys, uh, for where they're being drafted. I think like where they're drafted versus the receivers next to them, raw fantasy points to see like who's more likely to hit your flex, um, DK Metcalf or like Tony Pollard. Like I don't even think that's close. Like to me it would like definitely be Tony Pollard. So I kind of gravitate towards this like dead zone running back, but they're they're priced pretty late.

>> All right, let's close with the Washington Commanders.

>> There's really just like not that many guys to talk about. So I just go back to the the Terry McLaurin stuff because we're we're going to talk about the running backs a lot as we get to, um, the training camp practices. 23 games with Jayden Daniels, he's the wide receiver 14. He's not being drafted like the wide receiver 14. In those games, he's run really hot. He scored a lot of downfield touchdowns. And at the same time, that's what Daniels is really good at and that's what Terry McLaurin's really good at. So, if like a duo is going to run really pure on downfield stuff, um, it would be this would be at the top of that list. And then there's the upside that in a in a new offense, less stagnant role, nobody else to throw the ball to. Like if you scroll down, like we're scrolling down a long ways till we get that second wide receiver. We get some Jahan Dotson, but it's like all the way down there is what Antonio Gibson buried.

>> 13th round.

>> Buried. Um, and we'll see if Antonio Gibson could like really play in two wide receiver sets. He's kind of a slot only guy to me. So it's just one of these teams where we're crossed off. I the usually comment, uh, from the presser.

>> I mean, uh.

>> We had a discussion on IU like, you know, prior to everything happening, uh, and it's not a surprise to me that it trended this way, but he is not going to be a Washington Commander. No. Yeah. If you guys missed that interview, they asked him like, "Do you track the social media usually?"

>> Yeah. The GM and the and the head coach right next to each other and they're and he's like, "Do you check social media?" And he was like, "Uh, it doesn't you uh usually come up, but he said usually at the end of it like to be like, uh, next time it's coming up."

>> Uh, very funny.

>> And then I think Stefon Diggs as a link has only been through people like me and you and not like local people at all.

>> Right. Um, maybe it would like be Dabo, but the 49ers can get involved with the Dabo stuff. They might just say like, we're rebuilding, man. Like we're not gonna have everything in place this year. Like Jayden, go deal with it and like Jahan Dotson could be the guy.

>> Um.

>> That's what I'm saying. Like.

>> Yeah.

>> I'm drafting a lot of Washingtoners. I understand because there's not a lot to pick from and so it's concentrated and I believe in this offense with a new play caller that some edges exist here and so I'm drafting Jayden and I'm drafting Terry and they go in the exact same spot. But then we talked about, you know, the wide zone, outside zone stuff and how Bill and, you know, minimal work last year scored the best in in that area. And then I said Jahan Dotson could be David Blough's Sam LaPorta and I feel like that's kind of becoming a trend. So maybe I'm just going to be wrong and draft too many Commanders, but I'm a little optimistic here.

>> No, I like being optimistic here. And two seasons ago when they popped off, Terry McLaurin 117 targets. Next closest was and then it was Adam Thielen and like that's like right now if the season started today, that's how we would be projecting it. Now it's, uh, Dotson and then like, I guess Thielen would be Antonio Gibson, but way way down the the threshold there.

>> That's going to do it. Our first stats versus film of the season in under an hour and 45 minutes. [laughter]

>> Crisp. Crisp. Don't get used to that. Usually they're two hours.

>> We'll see. We'll see. Again, we're going to try to make these live during the season on Tuesday evenings. Uh, so we can interact with you during the show so you can watch it live on top of that. Uh, so keep on the lookout. We'll be revealing our in-season schedule at some point, but it might be a month and a couple weeks from now, Hayden, but, uh, it feels like that's going to be tomorrow. So let's get there when we get there. Uh, all right, everyone. We'll be back here, I guess, on Monday with a new episode. Another four episodes next week. Thank you all for tuning in for our first week back. Our new era here at Yahoo. You've made it an easy one. Up the villa. We'll talk to you guys soon.