Transcription
We are at a very big turning point. It's like make or break it for the next massive move in metals and stocks. You mentioned the $4,000 level being critical that gold holds, that the next couple weeks of trading could determine whether we go up or down in the short term.
>> If gold breaks below there, then I think we're going to see it hit 3600 very quickly. I think it'll be a very quick drop. This 4,000 mark, I think, is very, very critical. Silver really needs to hold 60 or like $61 per ounce. But if silver breaks $60 per ounce, we're probably going to see a very quick drop down into this $40 mark, which is a 40% haircut from where it is.
Hey everyone, this is Elijah K. Johnson with Liberty and Finance, and back with us today is our good friend Chris Vermuan from thattechnicaltraders.com. Chris, thank you so much for joining us today.
Hey, thanks for having me, Elijah. Always a pleasure.
Well, it's great to have you today. I did want to discuss first and foremost gold and silver over the last couple weeks. We've had quite a bit of a pullback here. It seemed like we were out of the woods, uh, later last week, but now we just keep falling here. Uh, what is your take on, I guess, if we wanted to start with gold, because often that's kind of the leading, uh, market there? Uh, what is your take on where we are right now for gold?
>> Sure. Well, yeah, I can show you, uh, what what looks to be unfolding for gold. If we take a look at the chart, let me just pull that up. There's definitely a lot going on, a lot of emotions flying in the precious metal space. This is the daily chart of gold. Let's just zoom back. As you can see here, we did have that precipitous waterfall. Really started to, I think, test investors and and precious metal holders of what is going on, and is gold going to break down and sell off in a big way?
If we look at gold and just kind of look at these recent lows, we've got a lot of consolidation through here from, uh, late 2025, and then we had a wick low over here where we got into a huge waterfall selloff. Volume ramped up, and then we tested this low just about a week ago. And so, this was this is a very big test. Now, there's a couple scenarios here. Obviously, right now gold is in a downtrend from a short-term standpoint. So, as a short-term trader, gold is making a series of lower highs. It's making a series of lower lows, and it actually is still pointing to lower pricing.
Now, the flip side of that, as a long-term investor, the long-term trend is actually bullish. We've got a very strong uptrend. It's consolidating, meaning it's pulling back in somewhat of a controlled manner, building what could be a launch pad, a bull flag pattern pointing to higher pricing. And so, depending what gold does here, and silver is very much similar, there is a very big move, uh, pending.
And so, if we were to look at the the bullish and the scenario for gold at this point, let's just go back to the ultimate kind of low that we saw, uh, back early in 2025. We saw the low in gold. I love to use a Fibonacci extension. And this is based on Fibonacci theory, which is pretty much how the whole universe, the world, everything seems to function. Based on Fibonacci theory, telling us the strength of a move, uh, to the upside, and then you can figure out how strong or how much the market pulled back to the downside, it tells us where the market naturally is going to want to go.
So, from a long-term super cycle, a bull market in gold, if gold can hold these levels, we are going to see gold on the next major rally go up to about $8,600, which is pretty darn exciting. Uh, that is the where this whole super cycle in gold is pointing to one big final euphoric move. Probably something in the world is going to fall apart. Who knows? But it'll, there'll probably be a reason for gold rocketing up there at that point.
Now, the flip side of that we need to be aware of is also the the downside potential, which let's go and and zoom in on this is, and this is what people need to be aware of, the downside potential using Fibonacci based on the most recent selloff and the bounce that we've had. This tells us where the downside target is for gold. And that level here is about 3600. So, from where gold is right now, Elijah, we could see gold potentially take about a 15% haircut to that level, and that would actually be, uh, a bull, a bullish signal long term. A long-term investor, if we see gold and silver come down to 36.
Uh, this this brings us back to a very unique situation, which is right before we saw gold and silver go into that euphoric kind of parabolic move late last year and early this year. And so, the market is very efficient. Whoever got in late, if you weren't in metals and you got sucked into this excitement and you bought up here, the market is likely going to test you. It's going to try to shake you out and come back down and put you underwater or put you back to break even and make you want to get out of it, and then it will take off without you. And so, the market is based on the analysis here, is pointing to that's where it wants to naturally go.
So, I think there's some great opportunity in gold. I think there's potential for it to have a pull back to 3,600 still. Maybe this even happens over the next month or two, and then it could it rocket higher. But if gold holds these lows, this low that it put in over the past week, and starts to head higher, then we're probably going to 8600.
And there's actually a really interesting chart. If we go back and look at the weekly chart of the S&P 500. So, this candlestick chart in the background, red and green, that's the S&P 500 weekly chart. The yellow line is the chart of gold. And what I want to show here is we're kind of going into this phase. The stock market is starting to ramp up. And I think we might have this one more big euphoric kind of move in the stock market, which is going to be like the AI bubble kind of blowing off. Everybody finally piling in who's not in yet. Creates a a strong move up in, uh, the stock market. And this yellow line here is gold. Money's been moving out of gold and into stocks. And so, gold's been pulling back.
And so, where I think we are right now in this gold and stock market kind of scenario, I think is actually very similar to what happened over here and where we are in the stock market back in 2007. So, let's go back and take a look at what happened back then. Over if we were to overlay these scenarios, we are in this point here where gold has just pulled back. If we were to think of where we are today, very sharp pullback. The stock market is pushing higher. We just had a bit of a correction over the past, uh, couple of weeks with the stock market. And now the stock market wants to push higher with one last big push. And this was the stock market top before the stock market crashed like 55% almost.
What we're what we're looking for now is if gold holds these lows. So, as if we were thinking if this was today's chart, gold put in these two lows, and gold is technically trading like right here. If gold holds these lows where we are right now, it's equivalent to this chart where gold will start to turn up, it will kick back into an uptrend from both a short-term trader and a long-term investor standpoint. And then gold shoots higher to 8,600. The stock market moves up more so first. I think we're still going to see markets, people move into the stock market. Gold will build a base as the stock market starts to get choppy. Money starts to rotate for gold for safety, and then we see a big move to the upside.
So, that is a really interesting scenario and what could could happen before we go off this huge financial reset, which who knows what the trigger will be, what we'll call the financial reset after we never name it until it's broken, until we everybody throws a label on it. But if we were to look at this this chart going forward, I can't really squish this gold chart down at at this point, I don't think. Let me just see if I can. If we were to squish this chart down, we could see the stock market, uh, continue to push up here and then start to get into some some volatile market conditions. Gold will start to stabilize and start to turn up. And as the stock market starts to break down and sell off in a big way, we see gold shoot up to that 8600.
So, it's a really interesting scenario how this could unfold. And I can feel the tension in the air. I can feel the the bubble, the euphoric move with precious, or sorry, with the AI space, because it's so big. Elijah, it's really dragging the whole market up. And you know, I have the same feeling of what happened earlier this year with precious metals. You could feel the energy, the excitement, the euphoric. But the precious metal space is very tiny. When it comes to AI, it's the whole world. It's every person, every kid, every grandparent is in interested in this. So, this is not like this. This has got a lot more power. This is a big train that's going to be difficult to slow down. I do think it's starting to slow down a little bit. I think we're starting to get, uh, people are really piling in, and I it's just a matter of time when it runs out. But that's the scenario that I see unfolding. This is the bullish case. We see stocks muscle higher for another couple of months. This the precious metals hold their ground, and then we eventually see the precious metals have that one big euphoric and the next big euphoric blowoff phase before we see a bigger correction.
So, I mean, I know I covered a lot there, but that's the scenario that we need to be aware of is those two for gold, and and silver's, you know, kind of follow suit.
You mentioned the $4,000 level being critical that gold holds that. So, is it your view that really the next couple weeks of trading could determine whether we go up or down in the short term?
>> It is. I think this is a very critical point. So, if gold breaks below there, then I think we're going to see it hit 3600 very quickly. I think it'll be a very quick drop. This 4,000 mark, I think, is very, very critical. So, for example, like when we look at gold, gold, these blue circles here, this is that 4,000 mark that it really needs to hold.
Now, if we're to to look at the other side of this, if we were to go and take a look over at the dollar, the dollar is kind of an inverse picture. We have the dollar testing right up into resistance. And so, this is the big question. If the dollar here breaks out and really starts to pop and scream higher, then we're probably going to see 4,000 on gold be broken, and we're going to see gold and silver sell off and and head on down towards that $3,600 per ounce level.
So, right now the dollar is breaking out. I think it's doing the opposite of what Trump wanted. You know, you put war in there, you and all of this stuff. It's going to strengthen the dollar. We're starting to see it break out. Uh, so, watching the dollar to me is one of the most important things. You look at the currency market, it's about like eight times bigger than the stock market. Currencies are global. And we have been seeing, you know, the US dollar, the strength of the dollar turning a corner, and it has potential to have a very big move to the upside. In fact, if we look at like the monthly chart, the dollar has been channeling up for quite a while. I mean, it has been channeling in this upward direction, and it is carving out a bottom. This little bottom formation that it has right here is very significant. We've saw another bottoming formation over here. We had, um, depending on how you want to look at, there was a bull flag here or there was a consolidation, and it broke out here. We keep seeing these great big moves to the upside, and the market is primed for a huge rally in the US dollar, which means metals could get hit temporarily.
So, this is the biggest point is we just need to see how if gold can hold that that, uh, $4,000 mark, and if the dollar gets rejected and continues to trade sideways, then then gold will move higher. Also, if the stock market does scream higher then and we see gold start to take off, it also probably means the dollar is actually having a very sharp breakdown. It will probably come back down into this lower support zone that we saw back in 2020 and back all the way back into, uh, 2018.
So, we are at a very big turning point. It's like make or break it for a massive, the next massive move in metals and stocks. The big question is, do things muscle higher and are gamechanging, or do things break down in a big way? That is the big turning point we're at. I do think long-term gold is is in silver will do very very well, but there's going to be some weakness along the, uh, along that path.
>> Now, as for silver, you were looking at silver breaking below that $70 level, getting as low as the low 60s last week, now bouncing a bit here and there. Um, but what are some of the critical levels that you're looking for on silver?
>> Yeah, so silver is quite a bit the same. It's dipped down into this this support level, these these lows. It's had a technical bounce, uh, and it is pointing to lower pricing. And when we look at silver and use the Fibonacci, uh, price pattern, silver had its initial drop, and then it's had its bounce and it's working through this whole level. Now, there's some interesting levels here on silver. If we take a look, there's this 618 retracement. That's called the golden ratio. That is the sweet spot for Fibonacci theory. What it means is if price sells off and then has a bounce, it's naturally going to want to move to the 618 level, which it did right here. Typically, if you bounce off that level and pause, you're usually going to go down and hit the 100% level, which is this one mark. So, around $40 per ounce.
So, this is the this is the very critical level for silver. Silver really needs to hold 60 or like $61 per ounce. If it can hold that, the long-term bullish picture is pointing to more or less $75 silver, which would bring 70 would bring silver up to about 175, a very big gain from where it is. But if silver breaks 31, or sorry, 61 or $60 per ounce, we're probably gonna see a very quick drop down into this $40 mark, which is a 40% haircut from where it is.
So, I mean, either way there's a big opportunity. The question is, right now both gold and silver are giving mixed signals. Short-term the trend is down, long-term the trend is up. We've got the dollar at a critical turning point. We've got wars coming to an end. You know, the Strait of Hormuz getting figured out potentially. We've got a lot of things shifting right now. And so, we just need to wait and see. If silver can hold this level and start to move higher, it will generate us a new buy signal, and we can take advantage of the next leg higher. If silver breaks down, I am expecting it to drop very quickly to $40 per ounce, which I believe will be a steal. Uh, that is a point where both for gold and silver I would be moving in and buying a bunch of physical metals.
Uh, we did close out our metals at 111, uh, way up at up here, and we're waiting for the market to reset. The market could trade sideways for many years. It could pull back substantially. Either way, I don't want to hold an asset that is at one point short-term overvalued. I'd rather get in later when it is starting to run again or get in at a sharp discount and reload. That is the whole strategy I focus on around precious metals. Uh, so those are the scenarios. Gold and silver have the same scenarios. We're at a major turning point. The question is, do we get long again when it goes a little bit higher and and generates a buy signal, or do we pick it up at a killer deal when the dollar spikes up and we see precious metals get beat up and short-term oversold?
Focusing again on the what you mentioned, the Strait of Hormuz, and war coming potentially to a close here, um, with the Iran, uh, deal that Trump has has announced. Your take on that, and also a big thing that a lot of people, um, are talking about is that there seems to be at least with oil, like that the Strait was closed for so long, so many months, right? Um, the there are delayed effects of that. So, just because it's going to reopen potentially soon, that doesn't mean we're out of the woods. Um, what is your perspective on that specifically where it comes to the oil price? What do you anticipate for that going forward? Do you anticipate, you know, okay, maybe we're we are out of the woods at the moment, or could we still see spikes due to that lag effect?
>> Yeah, I think you bring up a really good point. I I do think we're going to see some interesting price action. So, there is that big lag effect. Right now, we we obviously had the war kick in. We have then we have this premium built into it. You know, there's like 27 deals that fell through. Finally, it looks like one stuck, and maybe this this ordeal will be over. And so, oil is starting to short-term traders are selling oil because, hey, it looks like the deal's been resolved. But we have this giant lag effect, as you just mentioned, Elijah, which means we still have the problem of people are running out of oil, people need energy, all of this. And so, now that right now this deal is being resolved, short-term traders are selling oil down. But it doesn't actually mean like oil prices, you know, at the pumps are going to change much. In fact, you know, it's it could keep ramping up simply because people are running out and people are jacking up energy pricing.
So, I I do think we're going to see probably oil bounce back up into this 87 or $90 level. And depending on how that unfolds, we may see it continue to go higher because it's going to take a long time for that oil to get back to where it is. I mean, once we fall behind on supply, it doesn't resolve overnight or even in like a few months. It takes quite a bit of time for things to get back. So, I do think oil is going to continue to chatter. Right now it's selling off because it feels like the deal has been done. But that's temporarily pulling the price down. But naturally, I think it is going to bounce back up into the high 80s or low 90s and and roll over.
Now, we're seeing oil break down. When we look at the energy sector, we finally are starting to see energy stocks starting to break down. So, oil broke down a few days ago. Energy stocks are just starting to break down now. And I think that has to do with, you know, a lot of people not expecting this deal to to stick, right? What are the odds? Every other one failed. And so, I think energy holders, energy traders were holding on to their energy stocks, saying, "Okay, I'm just waiting for like the news to come out that, hey, missiles are flying again. Something shot down." But this time it actually feels like it might be real. So, we're starting to see people move out of the energy space. But again, the biggest thing is what you just mentioned. There is a delay. I think we're still going to see a lot of pain in terms of high fuel pricing and all of that stuff. And I do think oil will go back up in price in time.
But, you know, even lower prices at the pump really isn't going to solve the issue. A lot of people are like, "Oh, it's going to it's going to help save the economy." But about less than 10% of people's post tax money goes towards like transportation and fuel. 40% of most people's after tax money goes to food. And food prices continue to skyrocket. Look at, you know, food across the board is through the roof. We've got, um, uh, fertilizers and stuff skyrocketing, which just means fuel prices are going to go up even more. So, in in the the big picture, like oil, and I always get I always find it amazing how people get caught up with oil moving up or fuel a couple pennies here and there. I'm like, it's so small. I fill my truck up like literally once every two or three weeks. So, I could care less if it costs more, like $7 more, $5 more to fill it up. It's the food, right? We buy, we a household spends 50, 100 bucks a day on food, depending on what's going on, or more, right? And that's where the biggest thing is. So, the the fuel costs and all of that is just piece of this puzzle of the economy slowly, I think, showing signs of weakness. I've spoken to a lot of individuals, and like, I mean, I'm telling you, it's, uh, the the the cost for food is definitely starting to weigh on people; they're definitely cutting back.
>> I think it was a shocker for the market when, uh, with the, you know, holding holding interest rates steady, uh, probably was, you know, understood that that's what worse was going to do, but the fact that he's saying, "Well, we might hike rates soon," I mean, that that's the whole narrative was that Trump put, you know, wanted to get rid of Powell, put in a new Fed share because, you know, to bring rates down, but with inflation, with oil prices rising, and as you mentioned, causing prices across the board to rise, rate hikes are now potentially in the future. Your perspective on that?
>> Yeah, well, I think I think we're in wild times. There's lot, whatever rules are there. Whatever has been the norm is no longer the norm. Uh, volatility is here to stay. I think everything is starting to to come across like I think I think, uh, Trump kind of thrives on like unknowns and things just popping. And I think the whole new Fed coming out here, they're going to be a little bit more secretive of what they're doing and they're changing things. You know, it falls in line with kind of the way the world runs with with Trump is just we don't know what's going to happen, and we keep seeing these huge swings. So, there's a lot of uncertainty going on, and I think it's going to be here to stay, and it's just people just need to get buckle up and get used to it. I mean, that's unfortunate, but it's, uh, what the Fed is going to do is just add a lot more uncertainty. And so, we're going to probably start having bigger moves around the Fed because we don't know what they're going to say or how to interpret potentially the new language if they start bringing out new language and new ways to to value things.
>> It seems like uncertainty often leads, is bullish for precious metals. And I guess that is your thesis long term that you're still quite quite bullish.
>> Yeah, I think, you know, when there's wars and uncertainty, we tend to see metals do very well, and they they have been, they've had a great many years, and they've really just had a blowoff top this year. It's just a euphoric huge move. It was just a huge sentiment move. A lot of people will throw out all kinds of reasons for it, but overall if you go back and look at the charts, it's a typical price action, a huge sentiment move. And what happens after that is exactly what we're getting right now. It's it's not moving. Metals should be like moving differently, and said they're moving pretty much lock, step, and barrel with the stock market. Uh, and that's because it's just been shaken. It just had a little bit of a bubble burst, and now it's trying to regroup, and that's exactly what it's doing. And eventually, you know, it is going to be the ultimate safe haven play. I mean, um, I don't own any physical metals right now because we sold out of gold and silver right into the peak, and I feel really naked. I really, it makes me feel much more exposed to currencies and all the BS that's going on in the world because I don't have physical gold. And to me, that's like the ultimate insurance plan. I buy physical metals to catch these big super cycle waves. I don't move in and out of them very frequently. And I'm looking forward to hopefully a sell off in metals so I can get them back into my portfolio and give me that little bit of insurance and peace of mind because I really don't trust what's going on with the worlds and the currencies.
That is definitely an interesting perspective, as you mentioned before, when we were looking at the charts that you want to get in at a better deal or when you know that things are actually when there's a confirmation that we're off to the races. You mentioned how you feel a bit not 100% secure, like that, you know, physical medals are often seen as insurance against financial chaos. So, how do you how do you balance that? Because I can definitely see, um, I myself wouldn't want to be completely out of the metals markets just in case, you know, I'm I'm caught off guard or or don't time things perfectly, but what is your take on that? Um, being a trader yourself, but, you know, did you not feel like you should have like some safety just in case the world, you know, the world blows up suddenly?
>> Yeah. I mean, I would probably restate a little bit of that. So, I don't want to look at myself. I wouldn't consider myself a trader. Sure, yes, I got charts behind me and I do put on positions, but to me, a trader is a swing trader or day trader. They're in and out all the time. When it comes to precious metals, I am just somebody who manage my manages my portfolio, my precious metals portfolio. Like I there's times when I add and when I and there's times when I sell and I move back in. I do have my my finger on the pulse. So, uh, I'm not looking to trade metals and I don't have to time anything because I'm not trying to time the markets. Well, a lot of people see technical analysis and traders is trying to time things, and a lot of them are. That's what they're trying to do. But what I do is different. I follow the markets. So, when things are moving, I I ride them up. When things show the signs that they're reversing and they're and they're changing directions, I step aside.
And so, right now for gold, if gold turns a corner and starts to turn up, I'll just buy back in. I don't care if I have to buy at a higher price. I just want to I just don't want to hold it if it's going to crash 30, 40, 50%. Or it goes sideways for a long time because, say, I mean, we saw metals go sideways for, you know, 10, 15 years or a very long time there, a big stretch of window, and, um, you know, if you're going to if you can make eight or 10 or 15% per year in equities and other plays, I'd much rather be earning money through that huge that that big weight and then get back into gold and silver even if it's at a bit higher price when it's moving. So, I think you make a very good point. And I think it's important that, um, a lot of people just need to have precious metals. I'm in tune with the markets enough that I can I can buy metals any day. I can move in. I have everything ready set up with or I can buy ETFs, right? So, it's very easy to at least quickly a click of a button, I could take advantage of the precious metal space through ETFs if I need to, and then, um, you know, a few days later or a week later I could just revert that into closing out and getting physical medals somewhere. So, I'm not worried about being left behind. It just feels very weird because I've had metals forever and they do provide that stability. And once you hold like bars, you know, in your hand, there something to it. It's like a true treasure, certainly.
And I did want to ask you just one last question before we let you go. You mentioned how precious metals are acting very weird, and a lot of people have been talking about how they're kind of trading with the stock market a little bit. Uh, will that be an indicator for you when that price diverges or that that correlation diverges between gold and the stock market that then actually the tide is changing?
>> Yeah, I think it'll be a very good sign. It doesn't mean it's changing for sure, but it's usually a warning sign, and it definitely helps. Those little tiny nuances when you pay attention to those are usually a sign to say, "Okay, listen. We're starting to see some weakness. The stock market moves down or sideways, and gold, silver are moving higher. That is a very good sign that the stock market is weakening. Big money is looking for safety, and so it naturally moves into, uh, precious metals in certain stages. So, definitely keep an eye on that. If gold and silver start to move up on down days for the stock market, we could be getting closer to a short-term peak in equities, and the the metals might be coming to life.
>> Fantastic, Chris. And if people are interested in learning more, they can go to thattechnicaltraders.com. Did you want to tell us a bit about that? And just, I guess, your last points, it sounds like the next couple, um, the next couple weeks are going to be very critical for the metals.
>> Yeah, I mean, what I do at the technical traders is I manage my own portfolio. I've done that since, uh, 2008. I share exactly what I do when I move in and out of certain ETFs or metals, uh, even crypto sometimes. We just did a SpaceX trade. So, I share exactly what I do in my my portfolio with subscribers. I and we can trade those together. And I do a daily video to let people know what's going on, how it affects our positions, what to expect, and it kind of helps kind of hold the hands of investors during volatile times who get worked up with the news. I can kind of calm them down saying, "Hey, this is all normal. This is what we should expect. This is normal stuff." Um, and overall, I mean, I think people just need to understand that these these markets are going to be volatile, and you don't want to get too caught up in the daily news. You need to understand these these big moves, especially in precious metals. These are these are things that take months or years to unfold. These are not trades, right? Last time I got into precious metals was 2019. I added more in 20, the COVID crash, and then I just sold really just early this year. So, these are big cycles and waves I'm looking for in the precious metal space. I'm not looking to trade it. Last thing I want to do is actually trade. I just want to be positioned in the right assets when they're in bull markets.
>> Fantastic, Chris. It's always a pleasure to speak with you. Thank you so much and God bless.
>> Thanks, Elijah. Take care.
This is Kaiser Johnson with Liberty and Finance. Premiums are rising on 90% silver coinage, but right now you can still send us your 39 fine silver bars or rounds, and we will swap them into 90% constitutional silver half dollars for a 3% fee with no cash out of pocket, and we'll even pay inbound shipping. Some restrictions apply. Call us for details. Call us at 1-888-15-4237. That's 1-888-1 Liberty for details.