Transcription
Warning. This video and all other videos on this channel are for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all other videos on this channel are the opinions of the creator only and do not constitute legal, trading, investment, or financial advice of any kind. Investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest in capital unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all.
All right. Hello and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm your boy Camel and we are coming up on the 1,000th video that I'm about to upload to YouTube. As of yesterday, this little web extension thing told me that yesterday's video was the 998th video uploaded to this platform. So today, the one you're watching right now should be 999, which means tomorrow will be the 1,000th video, of course.
Now, full transparency, as always, according to this, there's only 994 videos uploaded. So, I then went into my YouTube studio and checked the numbers. There are three that are currently unlisted. So, they are not available. They're only available to people with certain access to the links. But holy speaking, by the time I've posted today, tomorrow, and then the two videos on Saturday, one for the members, and the deep dive, of course, we will have actually reached 1,000. So, full transparency, we're not quite there as of Friday's party, but we're going to celebrate it on Friday.
Anyway, I asked a bunch of people to comment if they had any suggestions for doing something special or whether we should just do normal content. Overwhelmingly, people said do something special. A lot of people wanted me to go fishing and live stream it. And to be honest, I think it's too cold and too windy. I don't have the camera set up to do it or a microphone or anything like that. and I'm not probably going to be able to get it arranged, but maybe when the summer months roll around, it's a bit warmer, the days are longer, and I've got some time to pick up some equipment, then we could probably organize a fishing live stream later in life.
There was a lot of people asking for a backstory as well, and my backstory is actually on YouTube multiple times, although I appreciate not everyone has probably seen it since there are a lot of newer people to the space or to the channel, I should say. If you're one of these people asking for the backstory, then if you go to the what podcast, okay, which is @w.t podcast, me, Andy, and 1LV did a down the pub virtual chat 9 days ago. And in that video, one was asking for my backstory, and I gave a full backstory of pre being a trader and the journey of being a trader and how I got to where I am. So, if you're one of those people that wanted that, this would be the place to find it. And whilst you're there, do show Andy some love and subscribe to the what podcast. We do these down the virtual pub chats and there's no script. There's no agenda for what we're going to talk about. We just have people pop in and have a pint and we just chat as if it is literally BS at a pub table having a chat. So, if you're interested in that kind of stuff, all kinds of weird and wonderful topics come up. Highly recommended to go and check that out. But, like I said, this video from 9 days ago was posted and that has my backstory for the people that were asking about that.
I didn't have any good ideas for the live stream party and what to do. And most people didn't seem to have any either to be fair. But what I've come up with so far, and of course, feel free to comment below and let me know if you got anything better that we can add into this. But I think what we're going to do is just some daytime drinking on Friday. We'll live stream that. We're going to do a meme review, which what I'm going to do is create a Twitter post. And I want people to go onto my Twitter profile and scroll down and below this pin tweet here. By the time you're watching this, there will be a tag your memes in here thing. So throw some memes at me and we'll do a meme review for a for a little while since that was highly requested. Then another thing that was highly requested is we'll just look at a bunch of altcoin charts for fun and have some general chitchat. And then I will do a giveaway at the end as well. So if that sounds like something you'll be interested in joining, I am not really sure when I'm going to do it. I think it's just going to be around the same time as I often post in the mornings. So, so let's say anywhere between 10:30 and and 12:30 on Friday, and that' be GMT in the morning.
And other than that, there are a couple of days left to grab some Black Friday discounts for traders. So, that includes things like 70% off of a Trading View account. There's a bunch of cold wallets in all shapes and sizes, VPNs, so that you can spoof your address, and there's also physical gold and silver. Some of this stuff I get a kickback on, and others of it, like the physical gold and silver, I get nothing other than being able to offer the community the cheapest possible prices. And there's also a discount in the merch store and on the cycles PDF. If you're in the market for any of that stuff, you can certainly save yourself a bit of money there. Otherwise, like I said, do subscribe to the What podcast, check out the videos, tag me with your memes on my Twitter profile, and other than that, let's get into a couple of weird things for today's episode.
In the weather report, we've got this highly, highly, highly simulated tweet. Okay, Bitcoin hits $1,000 November 28th, 2013, and then it hit 10K November 28th, 2017. So, is it possible that November 228th, 2024, we're going to hit 100K? That would be incredibly stimulated. And Shortiz said that this tweet blew his mind. And he couldn't actually believe it. He went to verify it for himself. And sure enough, okay, 28th of November was the date that we hit these levels. So, does that mean 100k Bitcoin is programmed to be achieved today? We're going to find out.
I a while ago posted this and was saying, I do wonder if just like the NASDAQ through a cycle inversion before going on a big rip roaring rally. I wondered if we were going to indeed see a cycle inversion for Bitcoin followed by a rip roaring rally. And to update on this, as per my post yesterday, Bitcoin did indeed throw an inverted cycle and it has caught itself all the way up. Cycle inversions are when we force a half cycle low into a cycle low and they are indicative of seller exhaustion. There are no more sellers to be able to allow enough time for a true cycle low to develop. So, we force a half cycle low into a cycle low. We reset the count from there and they have very bullish implications as you can see. Big powerful uptrend ever since. So, happy days there.
I also decided yesterday that we could copy and paste my yellow squiggle from back here and add it up here. Something like this would make a lot of sense. Now, after the fact after I posted this, I was thinking I should have probably redrawn it to make it slightly bigger in every direction. So, I should have probably allowed myself a little bit more upside, a little bit more downside, a little bit more upside, and a little bit more downside, if you see what I mean. I should have made the whole thing bigger. I couldn't stretch it out, but I just like the idea of copy and pasting it. So, that's what I did. This is an exact clone of this. And whilst the levels are probably going to be slightly out, the overall shape I expect to be the same. So the big question for me is, can the yellow squiggle remain undefeated once more, we will find out over the next month or so.
And before we just look at a few charts, a bill to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve has just been introduced in Brazil. So I mean, this is crazy. This is absolutely wild. I do think it's important to manage expectations here. This has insanely bullish long-term implications, but these types of things, in my experience, tend to take a lot longer than we think. These types of narratives tend to show up towards tops or late in the cycles, and they help fuel and drive the final pushes to the upside in markets. So, it's hard to deny that if we see a bunch of different countries start to implement a Bitcoin strategic reserve, then of of course, of course, that is super super super bullish. But like I said, I think it's important to manage expectations. For now, this is essentially a nothing burger. This is nothing more than perhaps a false promise. Okay, this might take years and years and years to come to fruition. It might never come to fruition, but for now, it will at least provide a story, a narrative to explain away any upside price action for Bitcoin.
One of the main reasons I say that I think it's important to manage expectations around this type of news is because if you really think about it, it doesn't actually make a great deal of sense to announce to the world that you are going to acquire a strategic reserve, right? Doesn't it make more sense to quietly acquire it and then announce it after the fact? I think that makes a lot more sense. I don't think you would really say, "Hey everyone, we're going to buy Bitcoin, so hurry up and bid the price up so that we have to pay a bunch more money for it." To me, it seems like they probably know a big extended bare market is coming at some point. They probably know the price is going to be significantly lower than the ultimate peak. And they probably know that they'll be able to accumulate it on the way down.
Do you know what I really think is highly likely as well? All of these narratives of creating a strategic reserve will be exactly that, narratives that help drive the price up. Okay? And then when we eventually top and enter that big bare market decline, the thing I would think is most probable is we see the inverse of these narratives as we approach the four-year cycle low. I reckon by the time we've come off significantly, we get down here, you will see all over the news, US is no longer going to acquire a strategic reserve, right? Brazil is no longer thinking about this. Okay, Sailor is thinking he's never going to buy another Bitcoin or blah blah blah blah. Those are the types of narratives that come out towards the lows that force the final move to the downside. Then we get the kind of basing standard bottom and hopefully the cycle resumes up. And what I reckon you'll see is it will come out only after the fact only after we've had a four-year cycle low moved higher once more and the price is significantly above the four-ear cycle low. Then we'll start to see this news come back out and you will find out that actually they were building a strategic reserve silently from about halfway down all the way through the bare market decline and and the bottom. Right? That's how I think it will work. So based on my experience, I've seen this kind of thing loads of times. Bullish narratives always come out around the tops and then they always kind of flip the narrative towards the lows. Everything gets super bearish. Everything seems like it's never going to recover and then it comes out later in life that they were probably the biggest buyers the entire way down. So that would make a lot of sense to me for sure. For now though, undeniably people are going to look at this stuff and say, "Wow, better get some before it's too late." Which of course should be conducive to higher Bitcoin prices.
Moving into the charts, this is a Dixie right here. It's now or never for a top. Okay, for the people that are calling for a lower Dixie and for this not to be the threeear cycle low just yet. If that's going to be the case, then this really needs to be the top and we really need to see this thing do something like this immediately. And I honestly think that unless we see that what we're going to get and the thing that we should be looking out for and alarmed by is if this forms some kind of structure like this. Okay, that would be the sign of strength before the emergence to phase E. If that high right here is taken out after this cycle low, so perhaps cycle low decline and then up and we clear that high, then I don't see an argument for making a new low thereafter, I say absolutely that this is 100% correct. We have indeed confirmed that 3 and 15ear cycle low. There's no more time to mess around and worry about undercuts and huge rollovers. I would think this is either the high and we're now about to move lower or it's about to be, like I said, a cycle low and taken out to a new high. And if that is the case, then I really think everyone that is bearish Dixie is completely wrong. And again, that all kind of feeds into the base case hypothesis. So, wild wild times. If you want to see an extended bull market, if you want to see deflation taken completely off the table, at least in the short to medium term, if you want to see a huge, huge, huge parabolic blowoff top with way way way higher numbers, then you better hope and pray that that indeed was the top. And what comes next is this. anything other than that. And again, I think it's going to be really, really difficult to say anything other than we are going much higher in the Dixie.
Take a look at the yields. Okay, we reloaded the tell that to the bond market squiggle from back here not too long ago and so far so good. Okay, so it' be interesting to see if that continues to play out.
Bitcoin we kind of already touched on, right? Copy and pasted this yellow squiggle. As you can see, this is an exact clone. So, as I kind of alluded to earlier, I wouldn't be surprised. You know, we've already gone a bit higher. I wouldn't be surprised if we go a bit lower and a bit higher and a bit lower, but ultimately I do think the shape is going to hold true. I saw a lot of people jumping the gun and saying that might be an early half cycle low. In my opinion, it's too early and you can tell that because we've yet to confirm it with a trend line breakout. So, start to trade above here and we might have to entertain that perhaps that was an early cycle low or half cycle low, excuse me. But really, if we measure from this cycle low here, that would be day 22. So, that would be really quite significantly early. I think it would make sense to see this low come in around day 30 plus or minus two or three days. That would give us our 10% tolerance and then I think it would be time to finally explode. So, wild wild times. And of course, if you want to see 100k attacks, then we do need to break this down slipping and red resistance line.
Something else I wanted to point out whilst we're on the Bitcoin chart is the hyperwave. I believe phase one, phase two in phase three. If phase four is coming, then we need to be on guard for that. How do we know if phase four is coming? Well, any retest, this is a weekly chart, by the way, of this phase three line. Any retest into this presents a good opportunity to buy according to hyperwave theory with a stop just below wherever the bounce of support is. When is it that we enter phase 4? How can we spot that? The way we spot the onset of a subsequent phase is that price will fail to retest and touch the support line. So, if we zoom all the way in here and we see something like this, a touch of support, like I said, and a bounce, then we can say, okay, we're still in phase three. But if what we get is some kind of flagging, okay, and then buyers step in ahead of the support and we start to accelerate like this, that is where we will grab hold of this phase three line, pull it back to in line with wherever that weekly candle forms. See, this is in line with this. Okay. And then we will look for phase four to start like this. And then when we zoom all the way out, 1 2 3 and four goes near vertical. So I thought I would share that with you. We've seen it a couple of times before for Bitcoin. This was a mini hyperwave back here. 1 2 3 and four. Notice here as well, it returns all the way back down to below the phase 1 target. Pretty wild. And then we also saw the same thing back here in 2017. Phase 1, phase 2, phase 3, phase 4. And notice again when we're in phase three, we come back and touch this. This presents a nice opportunity to buy with a stop just below. And then at some point buyers step in before we make it anywhere close to the phase three trend line. This is indicative that we have then started phase four and can look for that near vertical expansion. So it doesn't necessarily mean just because we're in phase three at the hard right edge that we have to see phase 4. And according to hyperwave theory, any weekly close below this phase 3 line signals that phase 4 is not coming and this is the end of the trend. But from a hyperwave perspective, as I said, there's two real take-home messages here. One is any touch of this phase three support line on the weekly time frame should provide a optimal buying entry. And if what we observe is buyers step in ahead of a touch of this support, then again we can start to set our phase 4 advance. Pretty wild times.
Other than that, we remain long and strong in the stock market. Although getting ready to protect against downside, getting ready to lock in profit from here. I'm not overly impressed with what I'm seeing out of the NASDAQ. This thing really needs to start to blast off soon or I don't know. It It's not a good sign, right? This thing to me looks like it's about to top. And the Dow Jones long and strong continuing to push. Although we have our upward sloping red support line that will be used for me to lock in the profit from this trade. And notice how we're getting dangerously close to my expected timing window for the top to come in. So also pretty wild. Noticing the VIX has yet to print a lower low. Still in this trade and the cycles are soon to bottom. So it's going to be interesting to see if this curls up. I think whether I get stopped out here or not, I will be looking to reload this position just in case everything comes tumbling down. And the Russell 2K still blasting off, still above this upwards sloping red support line. So long and strong until we break down from here. And last but not least, gold is apparently working on the final push before rolling over, failing the cycle into that daily and weekly cycle low time frame and then we should have a very, very nice opportunity upon us. So wild, wild times. Let's see what the market can give. Please do tune in tomorrow for a degenerate live stream and a celebration of 10,000 videos. Tag me with your memes on Twitter. I'm your boy Camel. Until next time, take care. Cheers. Bye.
Camel finance. He's the man to see.
Rocking the markets with his contrarian scream.
Trades like a pro. No fear, no shame.
Sticking to his guns in his money game.
He's a bad ass. Oh yes indeed.
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