The Stat That Spotted Puka Nacua & Nico Collins BEFORE Anyone Else & The WRs That Will HIT In 2025

[Music] This metric helped us be early on Nico Collins as well as Puka Nakua. Before that, it helped highlight an impending breakout into superstardom for Devonte Adams and AJ Brown. Looking forward to 2025 and beyond. Which wide receivers stand out in this metric? We'll find out today on Beyond the Box Score. I'm Dan Schneider, joined as always by Jacob Gibbs. We are the two teams, the two team members that bring to you Beyond the Box Score. And let me tell you a few things before we get started on today's show. We will be getting into metrics that will lead to some breakout receivers, hopefully for you guys this season. But before we do that, I want you guys to all note it is Draftathon month here. And as Johnny Airport says, we need to start a GoFundMe for a new mic stand for Dan. Johnny, I'm on it right now. Look, I can't budge the mic stand from the desk. I've worked hard. I use tools, but for now, I'm holding the mic. A stand is in play. But the real fundraiser this month is Draftathon over at cbsports.com. You can get involved. We'll leave a note in the comment section, and we're raising money for St. Jude. Besides that, I wanted to note, please do us a favor here. Help us grow this show. Hit the like button right now before even listening. Hit the like button and leave a comment. I've been looking at some numbers already. They're not bad, but we're not competing with the area I want to compete with, and it's not representative of the content we're producing right now. So, help us grow. Please hit the like button, leave a comment. Even if you want to talk about how much you hate me, I don't care. Just write in the comments section there.

Um, without further ado, Jacob, I want to know how you're doing today and how excited you are to talk about a metric that might lead to some breakouts for our fantasy managers in 2025.

I'm doing great, Dan. Yeah, we're talking about per route data today. So, we're getting very, very granular with it. Not just, you know, this is how you go truly beyond the box score. It's like, look at, um, the per opportunity results that we get for all these players and then contextualize that even further. Um, we've really gone deep down the Siko rabbit hole together, um, as a community over the past like four or five years. It's been beautiful to see. Uh, we've gone from like not even using this data that much to now it's like, Romo Dunay has a bad year and you get this like whole cycle where people are like, look at his per route data, it was so horrible, he's going to be a bust. Look at all the other players who have been a bust that have had this kind of per route data. And then you have the heroes come along and contextualize that and be like, well, this is why the per route data was so bad and give, you know, examples of this player had bad per route data early on, but then ended up being a good pro. And like, we, it's just hilarious and fun, uh, and beautiful to me to see it become so mainstream now where like anybody is using this data and starting to use it well, you know, starting to use it better and better. Um, and we're just continuing to like unfold the way that, uh, we can use this data. Uh, Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points, that is going to come on next week and talk about first downs per route run. We'll talk about that on today's show for sure. Um, but yeah, this has been really useful in helping us identify breakouts in the past. Um, especially when it comes to elite players, elite wide receivers, like it's a, it's a really, it's been a really important signal for wide receivers who can take that next step and become, you know, true wide receiver ones in fantasy. So, that's, that's the main thesis we're going to use it for today as we just sift through basically everything we got at the wide receiver position last year.

Yeah, I'm excited to go through it. I feel like when it comes to these advanced metrics in fantasy football, we have more to work with now than we've ever had before. And there's, there's more, let me see how I can clarify this. There's more of these metrics that actually correlate with breakouts. And I think on the running back side, there's a few I look for that we'll probably go over at some point in a future pod. But if you're listening today and you're looking for an edge in your league, this is the edge. Like this is, you can look at fantasy points totaled last year, you can look at targets, touchdowns, those are all metrics that anyone can go to, but they're not necessarily predictive year-over-year. These are the type of stuff that will lead to some predictive stats year-over-year. So, I'm excited to get into them with you. I'm excited to look at the past cases and see, you know, which wide receivers broke out that followed, uh, along this metric.

Yeah, for sure. Uh, Aaron, if I can share my screen, we'll get right into that. Dan, how are you? Do you have AC at least today? Is the air conditioning back on?

No, there will be no AC in this room for a while as it is being worked on. My life is a mess outside of this podcast, just to be completely honest with you. Um, and it's hot in here, but we, we go through the pain. And as far as Ryan said, the peanut butter. Look, Dan's fridge only contains condiments and water, according to Johnny Airport.

Yeah. Do you need anything other than condiments? I don't think so, cuz peanut butter is also in that fridge. So, I'm good to go, man.

Oh, that's tough. Well, at least you get to have some fun today. So, I have a fan. The receivers we're going to look at, the past use cases, um, are Devonte Adams, AJ Brown, Nico Collins, and Puka Nakua. Um, and so with in Puka's case, it's going to be collegiate data, but the other guys, it's, it's looking at what they gave us early in their career, um, and how that was able to like signal that this player might be on the precipice of something really big. So, Devonte Adams and DeAndre Hopkins are the two players who get brought up to defend somebody like Romo Dun to show that there have been players who had really bad early career starts and then went on to be much more productive. So, if you're watching on YouTube here, you see that I've got Devonte Adams' player profile pulled up on the screen. These, uh, columns right here, the headers, you can see TPR, that's target per route run rate, first downs per route run, yards per route run, and fantasy points per route run. Those are going to be the primary data points that we're going to be looking at today, um, with all these players. So, Devonte, you see, really early on, struggled in a significant way, uh, right around one yard per route run in his first two seasons, and then started to come on. Had a, had a really big season in 2018 on the back of just massive dropback numbers for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Um, but even still, his, his data was middling. It was starting to approach, you know, exciting numbers here. We'll, we'll talk about in more detail some of the thresholds and look at some of the leaguewide data to help contextualize this, but you see it's a steady incline in the target per route run rate. And then in 2019, this is the key data point here that really helped predict the, uh, the massive 2020 season for Adams. In 2019, this is the first year under Matt LaFleur, his target per route run rate shot from 26% the year before all the way up to 30%. Um, and his first down per route run rate followed, and it kind of flew under the radar because Adams only played 12 games that season. Um, and like I said, the year before, it was just crazy overall total volume numbers. And so if you look at the two seasons, you know, he has 1400 yards, 13 touchdowns in 2018, and then in 2019, he only has 997 yards and five touchdowns in the season where he only played 12 games. And so he didn't, the, everybody knew Devonte was good, but nothing had really changed in his, the perception of him, even though he had posted this 30% target per route run rate, which is truly elite stuff. There's very few receivers who ever get to that point in a season in their career where they're being targeted on almost a third of the routes run. To me, this signaled that he might be able to take his game to another level and just break fantasy. And that's exactly what he did in the years that followed. Um, he was Michael Thomas was being drafted ahead of him in 2020, but it was like, I think this is the year that Devonte takes over. And it was so, another guy who, I ask you a quick question on Devonte specifically before we move on. I noticed, and I don't want to, you know, jump the gun here because it's going to be next week's show, but I noticed the massive jump in first downs per route run. I'm sure we'll get to that data, uh, next week with Ryan, but I'm curious from your standpoint, having studied all these guys that are going to come up today in target per route run, because look, fantasy to me, at least, and I think to everybody that follows it, is a game of volume and touchdowns. So that's why this target per route run data is so important. But I've always kind of wondered, is it on the quarterback-receiver rapport, or is it on the coaching staff and kind of the scheme to kind of get us to the point where we are here, as you showed with Devonte, that almost 30% target per route run rate? I think he's probably a good example of the latter. Is that, is that right? Is that tracking?

Yeah, for sure. Um, so his efficiency didn't increase in a significant way from 2018 to 2019, cuz like I said, 2018 was a really good season. And you can see here he had three seasons before 2019 where he had double-digit touchdowns. We already knew that Devonte was a really good player. What changed was in 2019, Matt LaFleur started using him in a lot of different ways. A lot of the stuff that's become so popular now in the NFL in terms of, you know, pre-snap motion, getting your star receiver in the slot a little bit more, condensed formation stuff, like that. Moving them around. Um, that's what really changed and that's what allowed him to push this target number so high. Whereas before, it's a lot of the stuff that we've talked about where if you're just out on the perimeter doing the X receiver stuff, it's hard to really push your target per route run rate to the 30% range. So, Justin Jefferson is a great example. He's been obviously phenomenal for fantasy. He's arguably the best receiver in the league. His target per route run rate has never scratched 30%. The highest it ever gets is like 28, 27%, and it's because he's, he's in such a downfield oriented role. Um, it's increased as Kevin O'Connell has gotten him involved more and more, increasing that motion and stuff like that. Um, but that's, that's definitely a good, a good question. Coaching has so much to do with it, as we'll get into with Puka. We won't have time for it probably today, and it's probably something that we need to go back and research. But I am curious because he's going from that Mike McCarthy system, which is just so stagnant, three receivers, it's the same thing, to that LaFleur system. And I'm curious because Lamb was actually used really well within that McCarthy system, almost entirely out of the slot, and he's maybe the counter example to that. I'd be curious to look at his data and then I'd be curious to look, we might have this on the show, of Neighbors' data, because Neighbors got to a really high number last year despite not what I would at least deem to be not enough snaps in the slot.

Yeah, the Neighbors stuff is insane. I went on a rant, if you haven't listened to the episode that we did last week with Rich Reebar, um, I went on a rant about Neighbors that just like to try to contextualize just how ridiculous it was that he drew such a high target share and target per route run rate last year given the usage. And that's what Dan's alluding to is that he really, Wandale Robinson got most of that short stuff. Um, and still Neighbors, even with all the downfield stuff, was able to draw a target per route run rate around 30%. And I'm going to bring up some other ways to contextualize Neighbors today, um, relative to other, you know, early career receivers and show just how impressive it was what he did. Um, but yeah, you're right, we, we absolutely do not have time to make a lot of stops along the way today. Um, so if you want to find, you know, just all this information laid out and talk about all the different receivers, um, and read about on your own time, it will all be in the FFT newsletter. So, as always, do check that out. If you don't know what I'm talking about, just Google FFT newsletter and you'll find that it's free.

AJ Brown was the next guy I wanted to talk about. So, he came in and produced elite efficiency right away. 2.7 yards per route run as a rookie is absurd. Um, this is a good point to bring up the fact that there are a lot of factors that go into this per route data. If you have two receivers on the field, yards per route run, targets per route run, all that stuff goes up compared to three or four receivers on the field because you're competing for targets with fewer target earners at wide receiver. If you are under center, if you're running play action, all those things boost per route efficiency. And so this Arthur Smith offense did basically all of that. Lots of under center stuff, lots of selling the run with Derrick Henry into play actions. And the result was just one of the most efficient seasons we've seen from a rookie receiver for AJ Brown, but it came on relatively small route totals because the team was so run-heavy. And also AJ Brown got a little banged up early in his career. And so you see his season-long numbers are good, but not anything insane. 1,000 yards, 1,000 yards, right around that range where he's not a true wide receiver one for fantasy. But man, these signals suggest that he could be something really special. And I was encouraged after the first year, but then in the second year, that's where things got really, really bullish where it's like, okay, this guy could be the best wide receiver in the NFL because his efficiency met was met with volume increase. His target per route run rate went from 21% as a rookie to 26% his second season, and then all the way up to 30% in his third season. So, I talked about Devonte Adams. There's, there's very few guys that get to that range. It took Devonte like six years, seven years. AJ Brown did it in his third season, and he's running a ton of downfield routes. He's, his slot rate this year was 27%. You know, he's not benefiting from a lot of the schemed Matt LaFleur stuff that Devonte Adams was. And so to see him do that, um, was, was really, really wild. But his, his yards per route run rate didn't quite match it because the offense was not any good in 2021, to be frank. Then he goes to the Eagles where the offense is good, and he, you know, just completely dominates fantasy back-to-back seasons at 1500 yards. Um, he's, he's the per route data for AJ Brown suggests that he's absolutely the top in the top three discussion. It's like Cam, Jamar Chase, and Justin Jefferson, and I just think it's important to point that out and like not forget that because he's still in his prime.

Scroll down a little bit because it is interesting to see. Sorry, I didn't mean to cut you off. Go ahead.

It's just like if this team passes more, he only had 355 routes last year. That was, I mean, next to the season where in Tennessee, like that's the lowest he's ever been at.

Yeah, he's definitely someone who I think has been just undervalued throughout all draft season. My only question on that would be, and I think they will have to pass more potentially just based on the schedule, though I am a little worried about that given how good their defense is. But one thing I do notice at least, and I want to just get your take on, and it's maybe just a Kellen Moore thing, but he really did see a big stark drop off in his slot percentage last season. He, yeah, he did.

What's the question? What do you, just like, is that something that should worry us moving forward? Um, if he gets slot work, that's great. Um, but I don't think he needs it at all. He's been able to succeed without it his whole career. So, the stat I've got pulled up here is if you remove screens, sacks, and scrambles from the equation, because all of those are plays where there is a route recorded, you know, like on a sack, you run around, but there's no target created. Um, so if you remove screens, sacks, and scrambles, AJ Brown last year averaged four yards per route run. The next closest was 3.3. There were only four guys above three, and he was all the way up at four. He, it gets masked a little bit because of the offense that he plays in not producing very much passing volume, but like he is in the prime of his career and is one of the most deadly route runners in the NFL. That, that list right there, Red, is like, I was just going through it real quick, like 12 to 15 players I'm targeting in all drafts. It's crazy.

Yeah, I mean, this, this per route data is really important. I know that we're sounding like huge nerds right now, but like that's why is because we're kind of obsessed with it because like this, I think is a real edge that people obviously have heard about yards per route run now. It's been around for a while through PFF and everything, but I still think that this isn't being used enough.

So, Nico Collins is the next one that I want to talk about. Um, one of the most recent examples where he came in, didn't have a great rookie year, but then his second season, his target per route run rate jumped from 17% all the way up to 23%. And still, it did not match in the production. He was injured and the offense was terrible. But that was a huge, huge signal, huge green flag here to be able to draw targets at this rate as an X receiver who's working down the field so much, and then we see him just go nuclear the next year. Um, because when you are able to see that type of target volume while working down the field, things can just get out of hand. And if you look at the past two seasons, he's the only receiver above three yards per route run is Nico Collins.

Yeah, isolated on the boundary too, mostly.

So, I wanted to bring him up. And then Puka Nacua was the last one. Nico, it's also like, he didn't even really see much of a drop off in that metric despite the offense seeing such a drop off.

You mean from 23 to 24? Is that what you're saying?

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. He was still really, really productive last year even with a terrible offense, which is.

We get into Puka though. Jacob, I will say this. We do need to take a quick break. Word from our sponsor, then we're going to get right back into Pooky Boy. What's he like? The happy face killer. You mean my dad. Be glad you never have to know. You think that you're so much better than me. You are just like your old man. I'm not like you at all. At this point, I think Aaron's just trolling me. I mean, I've asked him nicely not to play the happy face killer promo multiple times. It's getting out of hand.

All right, Jacob, let's talk Puka because this is, this is your boy. This is the original BTB Jacob Gibbs call out.

Yeah. So, Puka, what was so interesting about him was his per route data was like among the best that we've ever seen. Um, during the time we have the data available, so like 2017 to now, collegiate data, his per route data jumped off the page, but nobody knew anything about him because he played a run-first offense that didn't pass very much. So, low route totals and then he was injured basically every year. And so it was just bits and pieces of seasons, um, and his, his total numbers didn't look that good. But I, I pointed him out because of the per route data and I just wanted to keep an eye on him and see if it might develop into something. And boy, did it. It's gotten so out of control, um, in Los Angeles. So, I've got the highest first down per route run rate dating back to 2006. This is no age qualifier or anything. This is just the best per route production that we've seen, um, in terms of first downs. And the reason that this is important, this is a great tweet from Ryan Heath. Ryan does such a good job of breaking this stuff down and showing why it matters for fantasy. And so what he's got here is how predictive these stats have been in terms of the next season's fantasy points per game. At the top of the list, above fantasy points per game, above receiving yards per game, first downs. First downs are really, really important. Um, and that there's not been anyone who produces them like Puka Nacua at his age. And the only person during the time I have the data available, this back to 2006, um, because I, I went through and dug through all the PFF season by season data because True Media doesn't even have this available. It's like 2013 on is what True Media has. And so I went all the way back to 2006. Nobody has topped this Tyreek Hill in '23 and Puka Nacua in '24 range. And then if you do look at, um, if you contextualize it relative to other receivers who have like started their career, um, and played the same number of games. So, this is the first 28 career games. Puka's yards per route run, target per route run, first down per route run, all like way, way beyond anything we've seen. This is dating back to 2013. Um, so on the screen here, we've got 2.9 yards per route run for Nacua through 28 games. The next highest through an initial 28 games is Justin Jefferson, 2.68, AJ Brown, 2.6, Odell Beckham, 2.57. Target per route run rate, 31% for Nacua. The next highest is 27%. He's way, way above all these guys. Um, he's just a yardage creation cheat code. And so I wanted to point out these guys because they've been the use cases. We've, we've seen huge results. So, if you've got these guys, if you got in on these guys early in Dynasty, then like you've just been able to just print fantasy points for cheap. Um, and I want to talk about the, uh, some of the guys who might be the next versions of that. Obviously, some of these guys were already really, really hyped on. Um, but just kind of go through the wide receiver position today and look at all the per route data that we have and highlight some guys we're excited for.

Let's do it. I'm excited to hear it.

Okay. Drake London. Drake London is the first one. Um, he, Drake London has been like banging on the door for being this guy, uh, for a long time. His highest single season target per route run rate was 41% in his final season at USC. So, that's the highest of any receiver drafted in round one since 2017, since the time I have the data available. Wow. And then he comes in and has just massive target per route run rates early in his career for any receiver, but especially a receiver that's so young. And he came in at like 20, 21 years old, but he came in and right away was an alpha target hog, but it just flew completely under the radar because the offense was terrible. And then last year, we finally see that like with competent play, like how outrageous the production could get. And so I'm going to try to contextualize this because it, it's easy, I think, to be super, super, super excited about some of these year two guys that are in the same range as Drake London in terms of where they're getting drafted. He's not as overwhelming of an athlete as these guys. He's not as flashy in the way that he wins, but he is just a yardage cheat code in the way that he's able to draw targets at such a high rate down the field. And so that's what I've got here is receivers who have had an average depth of target of 10 or more yards and a target per route run rate of 28% or higher. And it's just the best receivers in fantasy. It's, other than like that Cooper Kupp season, it's Tyreek Hill, Julio Jones, AJ Green, Antonio Brown, DeSean Jackson, DeAndre Hopkins, Devonte Adams. It's, it's those guys. If you're able to win down the field and draw targets at a high rate, it normally results in just crazy, crazy numbers. London's been on this list twice already. In two of the three years, he's been on this list. There's only 24 players that have even had one of these seasons. There's only been 24 of these seasons, um, dating back to 2013. So, you get like one or two a year. He's, he's done it twice already. And so if Atlanta is just producing massive amounts of volume, like Rich and other people I've heard them talk about them being like the Jameis Winston, the Cincinnati Bengals, you know, like that type of possible. Yeah. Just producing crazy volume, if the defense isn't good, if they get lots of shootouts and stuff, then this per route data is just going to extrapolate into massive, massive numbers. That's the other thing with London is he's been on run-heavy teams for the most part. Um, here's another list. This is looking at his first 50 games. So, like I did with Nacua earlier, London has played 50 games and this is dating back to 2013. The only receivers to come in this range, um, in terms of the per route data are all fantasy superstars. It's Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Thomas, AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson, and CeeDee Lamb. I mean, his, his data is basically identical to like CeeDee Lamb, Michael Thomas through his first few seasons here in a way, way worse offense. 2.1 yards per route run for him, 2.12 for CeeDee Lamb playing with Dak Prescott, compared to the quarterback play that Drake London has had. I think about kind of the upside of that, and I think about just watching Michael Penix's tape at Washington and how well he used Rome Odunze in that offense. Also, like how many times I saw Washington go spread, go shotgun, go uptempo, and that's something Zack Robinson did a little bit of with Penix down the stretch. That may be a way to just get him more comfortable, especially at home when Atlanta's at home in that dome. That's all good things for fantasy upside. I, I love the idea. It's, he's a player, Drake London, who I was out on early in fantasy just based on where he's being drafted. And now I'm like, maybe I should be pushing him up into that AJ Brown, where AJ Brown is drafted range. This also makes me feel much better about being in the second round of fantasy drafts in the middle of the second round.

Yeah, man. I, I love that range and I think he's just a massive, massive value. So, another way I've got that we can contextualize it here is I, I brought this up already, but here's the actual data. This is the target per route run rates for leaguewide depending on the number of receivers that are on the field. And you see here there's a, there's a big drop from two receivers on the field to three receivers on the field. I bring that up because the Falcons had the highest number of three receiver set plays last year. The highest percentage of their dropbacks involved three receivers on the field. And he's got Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts on the field who are like pass catchers. That's a part of their skill set. And still he has these numbers. And still he's pushing up near 30% target per route run rate. So, what I'm saying here is like teams like, you know, the Ravens, the Saints, the Dolphins. Here at the bottom here, there are, you know, 60 plus percent of their plays are, you know, two, one, two receivers on the field. Players on those offenses sometimes see their target per route run rates inflated. London is the opposite end of that where if anything, you would think that like that the offense he's playing in would hurt his ability to draw such massive target rates, but it hasn't. He still has like some of the most historically unprecedented target drawing ability we've ever seen, um, for a young receiver. And so if this all comes together like it could, here's some of the receivers who have like really seen a drop off like Deebo Samuel in San Francisco was way, way impacted by this when there were two receivers on the field, his target rate shot way up, just, it's an interesting way to contextualize per route data. And when you look at it through this lens, it makes London's rates look even crazier, honestly. Like here's the data. If you just take out plays with two or fewer receivers on the field, and you see like Puka and Drake London, their offenses use three receivers all the time, and still they're putting up this kind of per route data. So, I absolutely think he belongs in that range. I, I think you could push him up into the Brian Thomas Jr., the Malik Neighbors range. I really do. I don't hate that take. I kind of like it and I'm warming up to it because I think of him almost as like from a fantasy standpoint, just thinking back through the years of playing like a modern-dayish Mike Evans type, right? Like he can win downfield, he can win in the red zone, gets a ton of targets in both areas. He has a quarterback who's younger in the NFL, which I mean, Jake, uh, Evans didn't have that as much, but he, with Baker was kind of like a new scenery there in Tampa, who's going to potentially overtarget him or target him a lot. And he's also someone who like is a little bit better than people realize after the catch, too, and kind of winning on those quick in-breakers with the release off the line of scrimmage. There's really no weakness in his game despite not being the fastest wide receiver. If the tempo is what it could be with Brian Rob, I'm sorry, with, uh, Zack Robinson, there's so much upside. I think some of it also depends on like the Atlanta defense, which is still coming together and not all there. Some people think it could be one of those bottom barrel defenses. That's just going to lead to more volume for London for sure.

Yeah, I think he really only needs competent quarterback play. He, it, we don't need Michael Penix to come in and be, you know, light the league on fire like he did at the end of last season. People will often cite those splits with Michael Penix, and I, it doesn't need to be like that. If it's like that, you know, we saw the upside was that London could just be the best receiver in fantasy. That's, that's what he was on a per opportunity, per game basis at the end of the year. Um, but if it's just fine, if it's just not like it was in year one and two where he had the highest offtarget rate of any wide receiver basically, like then I think he crushed those Mariota days were so bad, like watching the tape. I remember we did one on Beyond the Box Score, the Steelers versus the Falcons, and Drake London should have had like 200 yards that day and just, it was crazy. So, I don't think the targets, I don't, I'm not worried necessarily about that. I think that Penix is a good thrower of the football, a really good thrower of the football even. I worry with Penix about the timing, the anticipation. Not that he's bad at those things, but it's just NFL level things are faster and mostly how he deals with pressure and if they're going to be giving up a lot of pressure in Atlanta, which wasn't the case in any of his sample size games last year because they faced really bad defenses.

Yeah. All right, let's transition to Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Neighbors. So, I said I think he can push up into the range that those guys are. I want to look at their data now. So, what I've got here is when just only when these players were on the field, um, the percentage of their team's receiving volume they accounted for. It's 30% of the targets for Brian Thomas Jr., 41% of the team's receiving yards, and 59% of the team's receiving touchdowns when he was on the field. Malik Neighbors was 37% of the targets, 41% of the receiving yards, and 58% of the receiving touchdowns. And so, what I've got is a comparison to like some of the absolute best receivers that we've seen. Um, Josh Gordon, Julio Jones, Devonte Adams, Justin Jefferson, DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Brown, Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson. They're beating like all of them. Of course, like this is, this is a really obscure way to do this to like look at only the percentage of their offense and, you know, these guys didn't have hardly any target competition. You know, I mean, Wandale Robinson did have an insane amount of targets last year, but they're clearly getting fed in their offense because their offense is not any good. Um, Brian Thomas Jr. and Neighbors, but still, like it's wild to be able to do this as a rookie. Um, and I, I, I bring, I love having Gordon at the top here because if you remember after watching Brian Thomas Jr., like we watched him in college, but it's hard to know how that's going to translate to the pros. And then I saw him in the preseason against NFL guys. I'm like, "Okay, this guy, I've never seen anything move like this." It's similar to Gordon. Like I've, I've literally never compared anyone to Gordon, but that's who he reminded me of.

You made that comp at the time. I was like, not, not a big fan of that comp. And I, after thinking about it a little bit, because just Gordon was such a strong player, and I kind of underestimated that aspect of Thomas' game, to be honest, just the, because of how LSU used him. Like when I watched the tape, they didn't use him, in my mind at least, to the fullest of his capabilities. I think Jacksonville did a much better job understanding his skill set, and obviously we're expecting them, this new coaching staff, to understand it even better. So, I think those are all reasons to be positive about him. The next stat, that stat I want to throw at you, I've got four wide receivers aged 22 or younger to average half a PPR point per route run dating back to 2013. They are Odell Beckham, Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, and Brian Thomas Jr. Malik Neighbors was just outside, just barely missed it at 0.49 fantasy points per route run. Um, first off, how insane is it that all of these guys are from LSU?

It is insane. Uh, so just really wild stuff here to come in that range. Um, Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, obviously like the wide receiver one and two in Dynasty now, um, in fantasy any given year, and Odell Beckham was that early in his career. Insane what he was doing early on. What's really crazy about this is look at the difference in these offenses. So, I, you know, we, I wasn't, this is fantasy points per route run, which you need touchdowns. You need a functional offense to pump that number up. And Brian Thomas Jr. was ahead of Justin Jefferson and tied with Ja'Marr Chase in a Mac Jones offense for mostly.

Look, yes. Look at Ja'Marr Chase's, this is PPR points per game for the wide receiver, um, average for the team. 44 for the Bengals in 2021 in Ja'Marr Chase's rookie season. 32 for Jacksonville last year. That's a, that's a huge, huge difference, and they had the same fantasy point per route run rate, you know, playing with Joe Burrow compared to, you know, Mac Jones and injured Trevor Lawrence, a line that couldn't block, a coaching staff that didn't have, I mean, it's, I, the ceiling is so, so high for these guys. You discussed this, I think, recently with me, uh, or maybe Adam discussed this with me, and he brought it up. These guys are like outliers in a lot of ways, both of them, last year, Thomas and Neighbors, because when he went back and looked at it, as far as wide receiver one goes, with a chance to be wide receiver one, almost no one has finished as a wide receiver one on a bottom 15 offense. And they weren't wide receiver one overall, but they're pushing into that range, both of them, despite being on one of the two of the least functional offenses. It's like if you expect any kind of jump with Jacksonville or or New York's offense this year, there's no real reason these guys can't push to be wide receiver one, both of them.

Yeah, I, I think so. Um, we're this Thursday, um, I'm doing an episode with Ryan Heath where we're going to look at league winners. He just wrote an article called Anatomy of a League Winner. Um, and it's just amazing to me how many of the receivers we have right now fit into this, um, description. I, I really, you know, I know there's a bunch of awesome running backs. I went to Bijan Robinson early and everything, but like, I'm leaning more and more towards just like grabbing the two best receivers that I can in rounds one and two.

Exactly the same way. Yeah. Another, yesterday I did a thread where I looked at like the primes for some of the best historical receivers. And of course, this is affected by more and more passing as the years go on in the NFL, like compared to the early 2000s, we're passing more. Um, but we have so many guys right now that are popping up in the top 20, top 30, um, that are like just entering their primes. Like Ja'Marr Chase is just now turning 25 years old. Some of these other guys are like 21, 22 year old, already doing some stuff that we have seen like the very best receivers barely ever do in their career. It's, it's really a wild time right now. Um, and I, I just, I just want as many shots at getting some kind of legendary season from these receivers as I can. I feel like we've had a lot of drafts in recent years where it's like when you get into that certain range in round two, you've, we've been pushing up older, I mean, we've been selecting older guys. Maybe it was Devonte Adams one year, and now it's the young guys in that range. You're getting prime players. Like I, I look at the board now, just going over these players we went over today, Drake London, Malik Neighbors, Brian Thomas. I almost feel like I'm in a better spot with a backend of round one pick in a snake, which I never feel like. I always feel like I want one of those top fives. This year I'm, I'm starting to lean toward the other way.

Yeah, I want one of those top fives because I think you can potentially get somebody like Drake London in round two, and then maybe get two.

You think he'll still be there? I, I mean, it depends on the draft, of course, but yeah. Um, okay. So, I want to talk about Rashee Rice and then we'll go to break. I think Rice honestly is for fantasy, pushing up into the range that these guys are, which is insane. I don't know how long it'll last with suspension and injury and stuff. Um, if Xavier Worthy ends up being more than we expect, but just the math side of things and everything about the way that Rice produces his fantasy points suggests that he could be like a, a Puka Nacua level kind of broken fantasy asset where he just is a cheat code. And so for Rice, I want to start with, um, Matt Harmon's work on Reception Perception. Um, he charted, you know, he charts every route and so it's, it's worth noting that it's a small sample size last year, but Matt charted Rice for having a 90% success rate versus zone coverage. Um, and that was what he was at his best at as a rookie, too. Um, but that's so here, just this is an excerpt from Matt's work. Definitely go check it out. Reception Perception.com. When stacked with the rest of Reception Perception's full history database, this is the fifth best all-time rate versus zone coverage behind three Antonio Brown seasons, Cooper Kupp's 2021 season, and just barely falling ahead of Julian Edelman's 2016 season. So, that is like the type of upside that we have in terms of his ability to beat zone coverage, and that's backed up by all of the per route data. He's wide receiver one in yards per route run versus zone since entering the NFL, above Puka, above Amon-Ra St. Brown, above Chris Godwin. I bring those guys up because they all have really good zone splits as well. They're also players who are benefiting in a huge way from the scheme that they're in and just playing in really high-powered offenses, and they're, they're the primary zone winners in their offense. Puka, not quite as much with Kupp being there, but he played a lot of those routes without Kupp. Um, the other two for sure, St. Brown and Godwin, and Rice is ahead of all of them, and it's like as a, you know, early career player, he's already doing that, and we, we know that like zone is the current meta among NFL defenses. Listen back to that Reeves episode that we recorded last week and count the number, like drink for every time Vic Fangio's name comes up, and you're not going to make it through the episode because like that's the way defenses have been shifting, and Rice is like so clearly the player to beat that for the Chiefs. He's so good with the ball in his hands. Um, what I've got here on this, I mentioned just a little quick team context note. It's like the way that defenses have been shifting, that was because they needed to stop Mahomes. They're doing it more than just any other team.

Yeah, exactly. And so now we've got the counter. It's basically just like an extension of the run game. Get this guy the ball and let him just bully people. He's, he's really physical. Like he's a problem for defenses as long as he's healthy. And that's the thing, like I, I wonder, and I don't want to cut you off, but I wonder like people, I know people are nervous about, okay, well, yeah, Rice did that last year. The numbers are going to look great, but Hollywood Brown wasn't there, and he'll be back. And Travis Kelce was just weirdly bad last year, and it looks like he's in good shape. Maybe he'll be back. And then you add in who they drafted. You add in maybe Xavier Worthy can do more. But I think what you just said last is the reason not to be nervous about that. There's no one who can bully, bully defenders and bully defenses like Rice. Like, no one operates that role. Worthy was better than people realize at Texas over the middle of the field, but he's not that Rice mold. Hollywood Brown's certainly not that Rice mold, and I'm not sure even an in-shape Kelce can get back to being what Rice was in that area last season as far as effectiveness goes.

Yeah, I definitely think it's Rice's role. Um, they, I don't think they want to use Worthy that way. We saw him unlocked as a downfield guy in the playoffs. Um, I think this is, this is Rice's role, and he's really, really freaking good at it. If you look at first downs per route run at the wide receiver position through an initial 20 career games, which is what Rice has played, higher than even Puka Nacua, who, nobody really beats Puka in any of this per route data. And as I brought up at the top of the show, first downs, the most correlated stat to future fantasy scoring. I really think if Rice is, if we know Rice is healthy and not suspended, like he's a round two pick. He's right up there with Drake London. You're factoring in the suspension or no? You're just, what?

What's your thoughts on that? You're still taking him round? Seems like there's a decent chance he's gonna get suspended. Hopefully by the time we're drafting, we have that's what I'm saying. So let's say it's, let's say it's four games. That's what, round three? You're round three, four games, like right after Lad Mcconkey, is basically where I'm at with him.

Okay. Okay. So less, so it, it depend, it doesn't really depend as much on the suspension for you. I, I think, I mean, unless that suspension comes at the end of the year. Yeah. I don't think it's going to matter much because I think when he's out there, Rice is probably producing like a top five player on a per route basis or on a per game basis. Um, I don't know why this one's so fuzzy, but I think you can still see this. Yeah, it looks good on my end. Yeah. When on the field, Richie Rice's numbers are right up there with the absolute best. This isn't, you know, just on a per route basis or anything like that. It's not first downs. It's just like who's producing. He has 41% of the team's receiving yards went on the field since entering the NFL. He has 43% of the Chiefs receiving touchdowns went on the field. Um, so that's top three, top four right up there with Nico Collins, AJ Brown, Puka Nacua, Tyreek Hill over the past two seasons. Um, all he's got to do is be on the field and he could, he could be better. He could be better than we've ever seen this upcoming season. He's entering year three. He's like approaching his prime and the offense could be better. You know, the left tackle situation sounds like it's going to be much better. Xavier Worthy could really help, you know, get the defense not able to focus so much on that intermediate area where Rice is doing his damage if he threatens as a deep threat. Like, I, I really think as long as he doesn't miss fantasy playoffs, like Rice is going to be a league winner this year.

I love that take. All right, you want to go to break and get back to it? Yeah, let's take a break and we'll get back to more of these receivers. Hope you guys are enjoying this show. Uh, we'll take a quick break to hear a word from our sponsors. Hi, Novocaine. Novocaine. Novocaine is now streaming on Paramount Plus. You're going to love this. Oh, you're strong. It's wildly entertaining and an absolute blast. I'm in. Novocaine, rated R. Now streaming on Paramount Plus.

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I'm curious how you sort these guys out for fantasy. Like, who do you have at the top? Um, is Rice clearly below all of them? What, how would you rank them one through four? London, Rice, Neighbors, and BTJ. So, for me, I think you've convinced me enough and just my hopes of what Zach Robinson can do and what Penix do to move London into the Neighbors, BTJ range, but I probably would still have him third. I would have Neighbors first, then BTJ. Now, BTJ I would have first if the Jaguars didn't draft Travis Hunter. That to me is throwing a bit of a wrench in that mix for me. Giants don't have those issues with Neighbors. It's going to be the Neighbors show early and often. And then four for me would be Rice. I'm toying with the idea of putting Rice in that mix just because like contextually speaking, I feel as weird as it sounds, I feel the worst about the Chiefs offense. Not necessarily saying like, oh, it's going to be worse than the Jags offense, the Giants offense, but just about what they're going to be trying to accomplish in games. Like watching this team over the last few years, it's been a lot of running the football. It's been a lot of field goals, not going for it on fourth, and letting the defense win games, and then turning things on in the playoffs. I just can't get that out of my head. And just seeing the kind of drop off we've seen for Mahomes. It's just a little bit tough for me to feel as confident as I used to.

Yeah, it's BTJ one for me and then London and then Neighbors with Rice Neighbors three. Okay. I'm interested by that. Is that just an issue of just kind of the Giants team context? Yeah, I just, I'm so much more excited by the upside of what Liam Cohen could do. I do think that Neighbors will be better. I mean, like I said, I ranted on that Reeves episode. You really got to listen to that one. It was so good. I know it's long, but there's so much stuff packed in there. Um, I also, some, some other stuff I haven't mentioned on Neighbors, I don't think. Um, the Andrew Thomas splits, I finally looked them up and they're every bit as crazy as you would think that they are. So with Andrew Thomas, their left tackle, star tackle on the field, he averaged 61 PPR points per route run, which is like pushing up into absolute wide receiver one stuff. He did that as a rookie. So it's 61 with Andrew Thomas on the field compared to 0.45 with Andrew Thomas off of the field. Target per route rate 29% with Thomas off of the field, 35% with Thomas on the field. So, when Thomas was on the field, they were able to push the ball down the field to him more and just run a more functional offense that was able to get him the ball more. Um, and then if you add Russell Wilson to that equation, I think we're only going to see more balls pushed down to that sideline to him. Um, and I just, I, I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's the top scorer in fantasy. Even though the Giants aren't probably going to be a top half of the league offense, I really don't think they need to. He could get there just through volume alone. But BTJ, it's like the volume really crept up as the year went on and he has the ability to, you know, have a 15 touchdown season. That wouldn't surprise me at all. Um, so that offense clicks like it can with Cohen, that's when that becomes, which is why I totally understand having BTJ one. I, between those two for one for sure. But what's interesting to me is just like I think all of these players with the exception, I guess of maybe for Rice for me, just based on what I said before, could push Chase or Lamb if things break wrong for either of those two players. And even Justin Jefferson for sure with the McCarthy situation there.

Yeah, I, I think any of those guys could finish as wide receiver one. Even, even Drake London, even though he's not, you know, somebody who produces many huge plays as these other guys. Um, just absolutely locked in on London when he's in the red zone. That he's led the league in red zone targets basically. Just like strategically speaking. Yeah, exactly. And then that's just not even talking about things you broke down earlier plus the deep stuff. Strategically speaking, I think just from doing it for a while, I know a lot of people play in auction leagues like myself. I, I really only play any of my big stake leagues. They have to be auction. I don't believe in snake drafts um at the same level as auctions. And like you'll see in a lot of these auctions, Jacob, that top tier that Lamb, Chase, Jefferson is going to go for a very different price. Maybe not so much as Neighbors and BTJ, though there will be a drop off, but you're going to get a big drop off, I think, to London and Rice there. You can probably end up getting Rice and London for the same price as one of those guys. I think it will end up being. And that just seems to me based on today's show like a much better route than me paying up for one of those big three receivers.

Yeah, I think Lad McConkey belongs in that range too. Um, okay. If we can share screen here, Aaron, I've got just the per route data for last year, just the leaderboards. And you see Lad McConkey is, I mean, this is sorted by yards per route. Right in between Jamar Chase and Drake London, above Amon-Ra St. Brown as a, as a rookie, above Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ben Johnson's offense. That's just ridiculous. Um, and it only got better as the season went on. Um, I've got a tweet from Scott Barrett. I want to pull up Lad's. That the offense just focused more on him. This is something we highlighted as the year went on. You might remember on Beyond the Box Score last year where it's like the, the first down or the first read targets and all of that became like hyper-concentrated on McConkey and all of a sudden he's just a complete G-code for fantasy. So this is from Scott Barrett. You can see like first read rate 37%. This is over the final eight games of a rookie season and includes playoff data. And so you've got like Puka's 2023, Jamar Chase's 2021, and then comparing this to, you know, Amon-Ra St. Brown, his 2021 rate really came on strong at the end of the year, comparing it to Brian Thomas Jr., Malik Neighbors, and McConkey. Um, 37% first read rate for McConkey. That's like up in the Neighbors range and a much better offense. And then go ahead. A much better offense overall. I just, I, we'll get into it, but I worry a bit about the team. Is it a much better offense for fantasy? Yeah. No, I mean, that's fair. They, they were 29th in plays last year and the percentage of those plays passes is probably going to be low if they do things the way that they want to, right? Um, but you know, that was this is it. Look at like 170 yards per game over his final eight. Like, it just got crazy. 21 fantasy points per game. And they were, you know, probably more pass-heavy over this sample than I think we can expect them to be going forward. Um, but I just, this is the upside for McConkey. If he, if, if he's in a functional like balanced offense, like it can just get out of control. We're gonna talk about Trey Harris later and how I think he can unlock things and man, his per route data is nuts and so if he comes in and is good, is as good as his per route data suggests, then I think that's only going to elevate things for McConkey because McConkey was producing even without this massive target number um and yeah, as, as it got more focused on him, it really did get out of control.

Okay, so Jackson Smith-Njigba is actually who I want to talk about next. He's, um, I think next among like young receivers who are approaching their prime and are in this round three, round four range in drafts. So what I've got up here on the, the screen for the YouTube people is, um, just last year's just base yard per route run data. Um, so you see maybe some surprises if you aren't familiar with this data, like Jauan Jennings here at wide receiver 12. Um, poor and effort, the Christian Watson bros, me and Dan, and yeah, it's, it's so bad. Um, I wanted to highlight Jackson Smith-Njigba because he's not high on this list. Definitely not as high as you might expect for somebody who's being drafted where he is drafted. And it was even worse as a rookie. So what does this mean? That he has a yard per route rate below two yards and that his his target per route rate is, you know, only 22%. Um, I, I think there's, he's a, he's a great player to bring up to contextualize this per route data. So, we shared at the top that like playing with three receivers on the field impacts this a lot. And Jackson Smith-Njigba, if you look at, um, the per route data with three or more receivers on the field, it's much, looks much better. He's like in the same range. So, I've got first downs per route run with three or more receivers on the field last year. 9.4% for Malik Neighbors. 9.3% for Jackson Smith-Njigba. Yards per route run with three or more receivers on the field. 1.95 for Neighbors, 1.87 for Njigba. He's right in the same range. But Neighbors had a, anytime Jaxon Smith-Njigba came off the field, like half of those targets were going to Neighbors. You know what I mean? Like he really got boosted by those. Whereas JSN did not have that very much. He had a lot more target competition on the field with Metcalf and Lockett already being established and then his offense was using three receivers all the time. Um, they're also, uh, not using a lot of the stuff that we'd like to see like play action and under center looks that kind of do boost the target numbers. Um, so I wanted to bring this up, um, and see what you thought about it because he doesn't have some of the, like, I'm, I said we're going to talk, I'm going to talk with Ryan on Thursday about, um, league winners and one of the biggest signals for league winners at wide receiver was having a strong first down per route run rate. Um, his data found that like league winners at receiver didn't, like everything increased from their data profile from the year prior to their league winner season, except for first down per route, it stayed basically steady, which, you know, suggests that that is a really important signal that they're already producing at an elite level in this metric and then that translates to better efficiency the the next year. Um, JSN isn't very good in that metric. So, I, I think it could change because we've got, um, Clint Kubiak coming in, who last year was dead last, the Saints in the number of, or the percentage of plays that had three or more receivers on the field. So, it, it's possible that like these aren't representative of what we'll see, but still, they're not, they're not where you would want them to be for a player that's getting drafted this high. Do you have any JSN thoughts?

Yeah, I saw the Saints all the way down there. Was going to first bring that up and I do think you mentioned this earlier, but there will be an increase in play action, pre-snap motion, things of that nature with Kubiak. Those are all probably more positive signs, but JSN is a player I don't see myself drafting much of, if, if any at all, this draft season personally in the range he's going in, in the price point for auction drafts as well. I've just, maybe it's a blind spot for me, Jacob, but it's, I don't like looking at the metrics you broke down. A, I don't think he's the level caliber receiver that we've talked about. I don't think that this offense is going to be very functional with Sam Darnold in that offensive line despite having Clint Kubiak. And so I don't want to get myself trapped in a situation where I'm buying in on a guy who had 100 receptions last year in a different kind of offense that was very spread out and they were playing from behind a lot and now will be in a different, in an offense where we have a lot of backs and tight ends on the field and play action and we're flipping it out to the tight ends and we're flipping it out to the running backs on designed screens and now I don't have my volume. I don't really have my touchdown upside and I don't have the upside of any of these metrics and it's possible this offense struggles behind that O-line with a player like Sam Darnold. It's just not a situ. It's a situ like all these other ones feel so much better than this one despite him being drafted in this range.

I think that's fair. I, I want, so here's, I've got on the screen a tweet from Ryan. Um, he just shows that, you know, it's only been 58 career routes, so it's a very small sample size, but when he's been able to run with two or fewer receivers on the field, he's been really productive. Um, and I do think that all the stuff we've talked about, we've spent the past couple of weeks digging into, you know, play caller data and team level data and stuff like that to kind of contextualize things. All that seems really bullish for Jackson Smith-Njigba. Um, we've talked about like the route concepts that Clint Kubiak has used. I really, really love the route concepts and just how he layers things to get guys open. Um, and I think that that will help him a lot. Specifically, all the deep routes um that he's used and even Rashid Shaheed on. Um, and just fed those guys huge targets on those routes, which are some of the most efficient routes for fantasy, by the way, are those out routes. Um, JSN's been really good on those and I think that's going to help him a lot. And then the other thing is the Clint Kubiak offense used a ton of under center dropbacks. Um, which is, uh, a fancy term that I don't talk about that much because it's, it's almost the same thing as it's almost the same thing as play action splits. Um, because like Rich said on last week's episode, 85% of under center passes have involved play action. So, the splits are basically the same. Okay. Um, but yeah, the Saints use a ton of under center and those help um for fantasy. They're much more efficient. And then if you look at, yeah, like you said, it's a very small sample size, an obscure stat here, but you look at under center drops that didn't involve play action. Those have been really good for fantasy, too. They are they're focused on the wide receiver one. I did a little bit of digging on this um and the offense, and I do think that's going to be JSN. And so we've seen like the Shanahan offenses boost players through these, you know, unexpected pass attempts from under center. Um, and no wide receiver averaged more of these per game, under center dropbacks that did not involve play action than Chris Olave last year, and he was targeted on half of those routes. So, it's just a small thing, but I do think a lot of this stuff could add up to change things in a big way for JSN. Um, and I, I love his film. I don't think he's quite as explosive after the catch as some of these other elite receivers, but I do think he can get open consistently. Um, but like you've said, team level stuff. We're worried about the Seahawks. I don't know if they're going to score a ton of points. Um, I don't want to get carried away with it, but I do want to just point some of this stuff out because as I look at the per route data, and that's what we're doing today, he stands out. He's just a glaring discrepancy between ADP and like his per route data. And it's like, okay, is he just a bad pick then? I don't necessarily think so. I think there's reasons to be optimistic about it. Um, it could all come together, but it is kind of a, a fragile equation. Like, a lot of things need to happen well. We're putting a lot of faith into Kubiak and his designs if it's going to if it's going to work out.

Yeah, I completely agree with you. There's just more factors working against him than any of the guys we went over so far. Okay, so we're kind of, we're going to segue from that to some players that I'm a little bit nervous about. That's kind of what we're doing now. Like we talked about the, the, you know, potential superstars at the top. Um, I'm, I'm back to the, the yard per route run rate leaderboard here, um, for the YouTube audience. I want to talk about Jameson Williams. I'm very curious what you'll think about this because I know that you're a fan um, and it makes sense. He's got so much explosiveness to his game. He averaged over two yards per route run last year in just, you know, really his second season um, as a pro. And that's a really, that's a really, really bullish number to hit that rate. Um, has been really good for a receiver so young. You see it's, you know, above T. Higgins and his, you know, explosion last year in Cincinnati. It's above Davante Adams last year. We really need to contextualize this though, especially with Ben Johnson leaving. So, if you look at receivers, um, yard per route run rate when there were three or more receivers on the field, like I've said, that that really affects things. He drops down into a not so friendly range. I'm finding the information here. Sorry. 1.73 yards per route run for Jameson Williams with three or more receivers on the field. That's below Jakobi Meyers and Jaylen Coker. Um, it's in the same range as Garrett Wilson, Courtland Sutton, Quentin Johnston, Michael Pittman, um, Jordan Addison, some of these guys who, like Addison for sure has been boosted by his offense. Jameson Williams shows up in that regard as well. His target per route rate drops from 19% to 17%. And then if you look at plays where it was three or more receivers on the field and they weren't under center, so three or more receivers on the field from shotgun, we're looking at just a 1.5 yard per route run and a 6.5% first down per route run rate. So that's the same range as like Marvin Harrison Jr. last year. Um, I, you know, I would expect Detroit to mostly try to emulate what has been working for them, you know, and Ben Johnson gave them the blueprint for how Jameson Williams can be really good and really scare defenses and stretch defenses and help the offense while also, you know, producing. But I just wanted to point this out that his rate, you know, he's in the same range as Davante Smith. You know, if you look at the, the numbers on the screen, I don't think that's representative of his skill level relative to Davante Smith and some of these other guys up here. Do you have any thoughts on J-Mo or does this make you scared to draft him at all where he's going or are you still in?

No. So, I like J-Mo a lot as a player. I don't necessarily like him as much as a fantasy player for this season. Um, and I think we look at that range where he's being drafted. Even the guys you just bring up, Davante Smith and George Pickens, who are being drafted right around him. So is Rice, by the way, but we both obviously believe that is a mistake. I'm not taking him over either guys. I'm not taking him over Zay Flowers. Even some players that haven't been hyped up a lot that I know you and I are pretty high on, um, like T.J. Hockenson. I'm scared to take him over a player like that to be completely honest because of all the things you said. There's, I feel like things that will happen with this Detroit offense because I'm, I'm with you. It'll probably try to emulate Ben Johnson, but I think we'll see a bigger target share of Jahmyr Gibbs, which I don't think is going to be a good thing for Jameson or any of those players really. I think LaPorta will also work more into this specific style offense. And ultimately, we're talking about a lot of mouths to feed here and an offense that quite frankly, Jacob, like had everything break right for itself for it in the pass game last year. I don't expect those kind of pass numbers for Goff and this passing game this year. They won't have as many games in a dome, first of all. That's first and foremost. And Goff is much better in a dome. And ultimately, I don't think their defense is going to deal with as many injuries as it dealt with last year. Really debilitating injuries on their defensive line that led them into these shootout type games like the one we saw with the Bills against the Bills. So, there's a lot of, I have a lot of pushback on all, really all where all Lions players are being drafted in the pass game this year. Goff, Jameson, Amon-Ra, Brown, to name the three that really scare me the most.

Yeah, it's T.J. Hockenson over J-Mo for sure for me.

Next guy I want to talk about is Roman Wilson, who, you know, he gets the coordinator that produced the Jameson Williams two-plus yards per route run season last year and he is going to need it if last year's data is any indication. 1.18 yards per route run for Roman Wilson as a rookie. Yeah. Um, that's just a ghastly range to fall in here. You look at the players around him. It's Cedric Tillman, Wan'Dale Robinson, Dame Brown, Xavier Legette, Greg Dortch, you know, not good. But as we said at the top of the show, all the Roman Wilson stuff really like has to be contextualized. Um, and the most clear and obvious way to do that is to, um, look at these splits with the sacks, screens, and scrambles removed. Um, awesome stat from Lord Reeves that, uh, I think it was like 144 of Roman's routes last year didn't even result in a target. You know, it was like Caleb getting sacked or Caleb having to scramble or whatever. And so that obviously bogs down the per route data. And so here, here it is. Um, this is the range he falls in if you remove all that stuff. Much better. 1.61 yards per route run compared to 1.18. But it's still not that good. You know, it's still basically in the range of Legette and Tillman and those kind of guys, Ricky Pearsall. Um, guys who weren't very productive last year. I did think it was interesting that it's basically identical to DJ Moore. Um, if you remove all those screens and all the, they, they were just like force-feeding him the ball. Um, he's, he's basically identical to DJ Moore. In fact, he had a higher first down per route run rate than DJ Moore if you remove all this stuff. So, I did want to bring that up. I think the offense hopefully will help Roman. Um, but it's even with all that stuff thrown out, it's still not very good because at the end of the day, Caleb, Caleb Williams just has to be better. He just, Roman Wilson, the percentage of his targets were uncatchable was the highest in the league. He just has to be better. One guy who I noticed in this range was Xavier Worthy. Um, not good at all. This is with, you know, if you remove screens and stuff, he's one of the players who like actually needs those screens in there to help his per route data. Um, yeah, really, really bad stuff here. If you, um, add the playoffs, then it's a little bit better. 21% target per route rate, 9.5% first down per route run, 1.75 yards per route run. Um, and this is even with the screens and everything removed. So that's not as bad. Um, 42 fantasy points per route run within that split. Um, that puts him in a, a range that's more respectable. You know, you're look, if you're looking at the screen here, that's like, um, Jakobi Meyers, just below like Garrett Wilson, like a little bit better than Tank Dell last year. Um, but overall, the per route data for him is like nowhere near Rashi Rice's. You know, if I'm placing a bet on one of these guys, it is, it is Rice.

All right. Um, those, I just wanted to bring those guys up because Worthy, Roman, Jameson Williams are all going pretty high. I think, you know, they're young receivers who have shown us some things and so people are, you know, cautiously optimistic, maybe not so cautiously optimistic on on some of these guys. Um, and I wanted to bring up some guys who I think deserve to be in the same conversation as them, maybe even above them, um, that are getting drafted behind them and that's Jauan Jennings. Oh, Chris Olave and Josh Downs. Does anyone show love for Jauan Jennings more than Beyond the Box Score? It's not possible, I don't think. I mean, it's because his per route data has has just been insane from the jump. Like, it, it started that way last year and it sustained all the way through. So, people, you know, talk about the Jauan Jennings game where he went for 175 and three touchdowns as if that like just, I think the stat I've seen is that he was wide receiver 44 outside of, if you take away that one game, that historically amazing game. Um, if you look at the per route data, still really, really good even without that game. So, if you remove that game, he still averaged two-plus yards per route run and over 43 PPR points per route run. Only 21 receivers hit both of those rates last year. Um, he's drafted as the wide receiver 35. And if you look at the data without that, you know, with that game included, he's top 10. And another thing is it's not boosted. You might think it's boosted by San Francisco's offense doing all the under center stuff, which that helps, but like even with three receivers on the field, his per route data didn't drop off at all. Um, I, I really think it was a skill signal for Jauan. I think he won in a lot of different ways. They asked him to like just do, there was nothing else really working for the offense because of all the injuries and he won in the slot. He won, um, on hitches and and he won down the field as well. Out routes, really. He just after the catch on those. Yeah. Um, I think it was a real signal what we saw from him last year and nobody really treats it that way. You can get him so cheap despite Aiyuk not necessarily guaranteed to come back for week one or even be the same once he's back. We've seen that with a lot of these players like Godwin and Deebo. Gone. It's a little crazy. I mean, I know Pearsall's up in this, but like Pearsall is not going to play the role Jennings is going to play for them. No. And I, I liked what we saw from Ricky Pearsall down the stretch, he played better. Um, but even like within that split, like take out his first four games as he was coming back, it's nothing. His per route data does not jump off the page at all like in the way that Jauan Jennings does. I think there's a real chance that he's just a borderline, you know, like a top 15 wide receiver for fantasy and you can just get him for wide receiver 30, 35 prices.

Sure. Uh, Chris Olave, you know, people like to make weird jokes about Chris Olave um being, you know, wide receiver one and concussions per route run and stuff like that. Terrible. Um, whatever you think on that. Like Reeves, I think, put it well where he said it's, it's next hit for anybody. It's a, remember like four years ago when Brandon Cooks was like, "If I get one more concussion, I'm retiring from the NFL." He went on to play another four years in the NFL. Yeah. It's a, it's, I don't know, like, I'd be really surprised if not able to keep playing, like it could happen for sure, but I'm fine just betting that he will be a bounce-back guy and continue to be the guy that we've seen and hopefully be healthy, especially betting on that aspect of it and not putting into context like, oh, we're predicting injuries because, you know, me on this stance, I hate injury predictors. I think it's stupid and and there's just, it's luck-based for the most part, but I think he can be a very good receiver this year and still be a bad fantasy bet if that makes sense. Maybe. Yeah, we'll see what the offense is like. I, I, we've talked because of that, we talked about Kellen Moore on the, Well, the thing is, man, he hasn't had great quarterback play. I know that you liked Derek Carr and he's, Carr is probably Derek Carr is such a different level. What, how bad it could be potentially with a rookie Stroud or Rattler. Okay. So, what is he though? He's, is he even league average? Carr to me, Carr is exactly league average. Exactly average. And we've got Chris Olave producing top 10 numbers, better than Jamar Chase on a per route basis. On a per route basis, yes. But again, like, and, and for sure. And I think he could be a great per route runner. The question is where are the touchdowns coming from? And how, and that's the big one for me. Not to say like, it's just like, it's an upside thing for me with a lot of, I'm fine at the cost if you're just not, if the idea is like, I'm just trying to make a, a small win. I just don't see the big win potential with him personally.

I, I hear you. And upside is like, there, he's probably not going to get more than five or six touchdowns, but like his fantasy points per route run is not far behind Mike Evans, who has all the touchdowns. And this is, you know, um, three years of data here. So, Evans has played in really good offenses and it's fairly similar. Um, I think in PPR leagues, which is what this is representative of these scoring numbers, he's just a humongous screaming obvious value. Um, he's been this guy from the start. He's so, so good. Like my brother was getting all excited about the, the Justin Fields, the Garrett Wilson connection and I was like, I don't even think that was a thing. Like, I know they played together, but I'm pretty sure Garrett Wilson had like 750 yards in two seasons with Justin Fields. And I went back and looked at it and it was like, yes, Chris Olave was the one who was dominating the targets when it was Justin Fields. He's been so freaking good on a per route basis at every stop along the way. Um, and yeah, since he's been a pro, he's, it's just, it's been spectacular. And now he gets to play with Kellen Moore, and Kellen Moore produces so many routes. We didn't see him play quite the fast pace and the high dropback numbers that we have in the past um last year because he was, you know, just feed Saquon Barkley the ball. You're winning. It's easy. That's let the offensive line do its job, basically, right? Yeah. But every stop before that, Kellen Moore played really, really fast. And I think that's probably what we're going to see with the Saints team. Um, and then look at the receivers that he's produced, man. CeeDee Lamb's ascension through Kellen Moore. Those his first three years were with Kellen Moore. Career-high usage and efficiency as a pre-snap motion man. Huge boost to his efficiency in year three because of this pre-snap motion stuff. He had the highest single season PPR total in terms of points produced as the pre-snap motion player until Keenan Allen shattered it the next year under Kellen Moore. Wow. Uh, Keenan Allen saw his target per route run rate spike from 25% before Moore got there to 29% after Moore got there. He had his best fantasy point per route run rate since his age 26 season as a 31-year-old under Kellen Moore. Wow. Davante Smith last year, by far the best per route data of his career under Kellen Moore. Chris Olave hasn't needed that boost. He's been better than all of those guys were and now he gets Kellen Moore. And I, I'm worried about the quarterback play, too, but it's not like you're drafting him at wide receiver 9. You're not, you're drafting him at wide receiver 37 or whatever, like wide, any, anywhere outside of the top 24, I think, is is fine. Um, and the further down you get, the less you have to worry about, you know, can he really produce 10-plus touchdowns for me? He's being drafted in the range of Deebo Samuel, Roman Wilson, Addison, Jauan Jennings, um, and, um, Jakobi Meyers right now. That's the range where he's being drafted in.

All right. You take him over all of those guys. Yes. That's what I was gonna ask you. Among the five that we've talked about, definitely over all of them for me. How do you rank Worthy, Jauan Jennings, Wilson, Jameson Williams? A Worthy, Jauan Jennings, Wilson, Jameson Williams. Um, I think it would be Worthy one for me still. Piece five. Piece five for me. I know. And I know despite that context, to me that's more of just a belief in the talent. A belief in him developing in year two. And my hope that Mahomes is going to be better than he was these last two years because he still should be Mahomes, but I don't know. Um, and then I would probably go Jennings because we talked about that. I would probably go, who were the other two? Wilson and who else? Wilson, Jennings, Worthy, Olave, and J-Mo. Okay. Those two would definitely be up top for me. Worthy and Jennings. And it's a bit of a drop off for me. I, you've talked me into Olave to put him here three. You've talked me into it and then maybe it's J-Mo, Wilson. I have big concerns over the other two, but I, I have my concerns with Olave. I do. Look, it's a blind spot for me, Jacob, and I'm going to have to get through this at some point as a fantasy analyst. But when I have, I'm staring down the barrel of Tyler Shough and Spencer Rattler, I just envision frustration for myself if I own these, if I have a lot of, I envision a lot of 170 to 180 yard passing games and no touchdowns and it's just, it's tough no matter who the coordinator is for me and the players.

Yeah, that's that's totally fair. I do have, I would draft him first out of this group. Um, and I, I get what you're saying and I get why based on what you just broke down, great reasons for that. I just think, yeah, he's the best player by far. Um, I like not fantasy-wise, just player-wise. Yeah, agreed entirely with that. Yeah, one for me, Jennings two, J-Mo three, Wilson four, and Worthy five. But I'm very down on Worthy. I'm pushing Wilson higher and higher. I wouldn't be surprised if J-Mo pushes behind him and maybe are pushing higher. I'm, I'm worried about Wilson despite loving his talent and liking the fact that maybe there's connection with him and Caleb that I've seen throughout camp. I just don't love his fit in that offense at all. I just don't think we know what the offense is going to be.

That's fair. That's fair. I think I think Ben Johnson, I think could do whatever he feels willing to accept that. Yeah. Um, and the fact that he was right on par with DJ Moore last year, if you take away the screens and all the non-plays as a rookie was already right there. Um, it wouldn't surprise me at all if new regime they're like, he's the wide receiver one. He can do everything wide receiver one needs to do.

Okay. All right. Just a few more guys. Gonna just run through some quick Josh Downs hype because the people need it and we're gonna talk about two rookies and we're gonna get out of here. So Josh Downs, wide receiver one in reception perception, success rate versus zone coverage. We talked about, we talked about Rashi Rice and how important that is, being able to beat zone coverage. Zone coverage is played 68% of the time right now. Um, so it's by far the most prevalent look that offenses are going to get. Um, and Rice's number was higher, but he didn't have enough routes to qualify. So, among the guys that Matt Harmon has charted, go check it out. Receptionperception.com. So cool. Um, all proprietary stuff you can't get anywhere else. Wide receiver one in success rate versus zone was Josh Downs. Wide receiver three success rate versus man coverage. That's ahead of Lad McConkey, Malik Neighbors, Davante Adams, Puka, BTJ, T. Higgins, Drake London. He hasn't charted everyone yet, but he's charted all of those players. He's charted some really good ones. 30-ish receivers or so, if I had to guess. Downs is wide receiver one in success rate versus zone, wide receiver three versus man. Josh Downs averaged more yards, first downs, and fantasy points per route run than Malik Neighbors last year. Wow, he's really good. He's really good. People are like, you know, it's Anthony Richardson. You know, Joe Flacco isn't coming back. I get that. It might, I'm not saying you have to draft him as freaking wide receiver one this year. I'm just saying like, put some respect on his name. It's not like he was just Jerry Jeudy with, you know, Jameis Winston, that kind of thing going on with with Joe Flacco. He was really, really good last year. He's so hard to cover. And I brought up the two and three receiver thing, like how it, it really helps your per route data to have, uh, two or fewer receivers on the field. He never gets to play with two or fewer receivers. All his routes are with three or more receivers, and still his per route data is this good.

Yeah, yeah, sorry. Go ahead. I just, I, I think we talked about Downs every episode. So, we talk about Downs a lot and I'll never forget watching Downs tape at UNC when I first got onto Drake Maye's first season at UNC. He was just getting uncovered every single snap. It felt like I think he's maybe going to end up a better player in NFL than fantasy asset, but you don't have to pay the price of what he could be. So, I still think he's a good value based on that. What I've seen because I've been following it is that Anthony Richardson has had some pretty good days in camp. Jones has had some pretty horrible days recently. I think Richardson's the starter. I don't think there's any chance of it going the other direction at this point to me. So, does that hurt our projection for Downs? Because we were pretty much thinking he could be a merchant in a Daniel Jones checked out offense. That's the one concern I probably have.

Yeah, he's a wide receiver four. I don't, don't get carried away with this, but if you can grab him, there's upside there. If things ever end up where he's in a functional offense, we've seen how good he can be. Yeah, good way to look at it. Yeah. And then just buy him in dynasty. Just buy him. It's like an A-type. It's like we like the player more than the team context. Yeah.

Okay. Two rookies to talk about. Colson Loveland. We've hinted at this a lot throughout the episodes. We haven't actually got to do the full breakdown. Colson Loveland had a 39.6 target per route run rate in 2024. Damn. 40% of his routes, Colson Loveland was targeted on in his third season. Um, his offense averaged fewer than 50 passing yards per game when he was out. I want to say it was 36. I don't, I wasn't able to find that stat. I found it at some point. Yeah, during the draft cycle, I found this. When he was off the field, they could not do anything. It was, I watched so much college film and so much of it's terrible quarterback play. So bad quarterback play. By far worse was Michigan last year. Not even a question. Like it was, I, I couldn't watch it. I, Oh, so true. And still, he averaged almost three yards per route run last year. Man, I can't tell you how happy, this is a side note, but I can't tell you how happy this little section of the show made me as a Badgers fan to hear you say what you just said about the Michigan passing game. So, you can see here on the screen his year-over-year progression, 18, 19, 20 years old here, right? Look at year three. 15% first down per route run, 2.88 yards per route run in this offense where it's so clear the only thing that they can do is get him the ball. That's all you have to stop as a defense and they couldn't stop it. 2.81 is elite yards per route run. So for comparison, here's the best seasons that we have since 2017. We've had some really good tight ends come in lately in terms of collegiate, you know, profiles. Maybe didn't pan out or whatever, but I've got it sorted by target per route run. This is the highest we've ever seen. Colson Loveland's. Um, and it's on, it was, he missed time last year, but still 207 routes is not an insignificant number of routes. He, he played um and he had a higher target per route rate than Harold Fannin last year, who was like the most ridiculous statistical thing we've ever seen at tight end. Colson Loveland drew targets at a higher rate. His first down per route run rate is above anything we've ever seen for Brock.

Bowers. And if you look at even just his 2023 season when he was 19 years old, it was in the same range as the best Brock Bower seasons. Um, here we go. Coulson Lovelin in 2023, 12.2% first down per route run rate, 2.47 yards per out run. This is with JJ McCarthy at quarterback.

Compare that to Brock Bowers in 2023. Same season, one year older, his final season in college, 12.4% first downs per run, 2.68 68 yards per out run. I mean, that's that seems meaningful to me that Brock Bowers is like the best tight end prospect that we've seen. Everyone crowned him as that. And Coulson Leland's numbers are right there with him. And then we see him get picked 10th overall and it's the first pick of the Ben Johnson era. And he, you know, we've got the phone call to Coulson Love where he's like, "This is a match made in heaven. You're exactly what the offense needs. You're you're my first pick as a head coach. You're exactly. I know exactly what I'm getting in you."

Another fun way to contextualize all this, the percentage of targets coming on screens in 2024 when Lovelin had the highest target per runway we've ever seen in the titan position. 7% compared to 24% for Tyler Warren, 21% for Harold Fannon Jr. Incredible context right there. It's I He just wins all over. He's a matchup problem. He's a matchup problem. This is the most interesting prospect to me because you backed it up. The team context is great, the investment and also the the actual data is great. But then it's like the third aspect which is mostly eye test and it's where we try to come in and just give our opinions as analysts. The film the film is freaking phenomenal. Like that's the thing. He checks the boxes of everyone who watches his film because they see how he uncovers. They see how he moves in space. They see how he high points the football. It's everything you want at that position. He's not like like I saw, you know, you talked a little bit about just how the stats side of it compared a bit to Bowowers at Georgia. He's not like that type of tight end. It's a completely different type of tight end. He's almost like a big receiver. I've seen, you know, Ben Johnson made the Leaporta comp, which I kind of get, but I don't even really see that type of player in him at all either. I think he's its own unique player. Almost like a I don't want to bring up this name, but like reminded me at times of like what I saw with Tony Gonzalez when he was in the NFL. Yeah. as far as getting open. And that's like if you're that type of player that can just get open in all of those matchups, you face the the defense to even to make one of two decisions. Either bracket you as a tight end or stop playing man and just play zone. And I don't know if that's going to be the case if he has that kind of ceiling in year one. But he's a player who I'm willing to bet on because of all the things we discuss as we go through this draft season.

Jacob, selfishly speaking, I don't know if I want to see the good camp reports with him because it's so easy to get him so cheap right now. Um, but yeah, this is going to be a BTB guy for this year. I feel like he's gonna maybe be our number one guy. Yeah, I've got him ranked irresponsibly high. I think basically like I would take him in the same range as TJ Hawinson. You don't have to, but I would take him over Hawinson. I think he could easily guy at all. Yeah, I think he could easily be the like tight end one if the Bears offense is anywhere near as good as it could be under Ben Johnson, but Johnson's just raving about him right now. He's he's already running as the clear tight end one ahead of Cole KT. Um and draft him at 10 overall to put him behind KT. Yeah, I think he's just somebody who can be weaponized all over the field. He can block. He's not like a Dalton Concade type. He can play in line and then you can also play him in two tight end sets and just create matchup problems all over the place. And he could be split out to the slot. That's where I really want to see him. Yeah.

All right, last one we're going to talk about here. Another BTB special, one of Dan's favorites, Trey Harris. So, I've got CBS's I really don't want to give away and it's too late. Average draft position data here. Trey Harris is going behind Savon Williams, which Oh, he's so cheap. It's crazy. Um he has so much upside and if you look at the per data for him it's it's out of control. Um so he averaged his second to last season he had two seasons at Old Miss. Um three seasons before that at I think Louisiana Tech or something like that. Um but in his first season at Old Miss he averaged 93 yards per healthy game. That included 153 against LSU, 134 against Penn State. Last year he averaged 141 yards per healthy game. He was completely dominant first man and press coverage. Um some of the most I've got the stat. Hold up. Here it is. Top five career first down per route run rates versus press coverage among SEC wide receivers. So this is only when playing against SEC competition. Drafted since 2017. Malik Neighbors 12.5%. Devonte Smith 12.6%. George Pickins, one of the best press coverage beaters in the NFL right now, 13.2%. Jamar Chase 13.3%. Trey Harris 13.5%. He had a 21% rate when he was facing SEC Wow, press coverage, but that was only over two years. So, this is this is his career rate. Um, he What's really unique about this with Trey Harris is that he had such a high target number. It really surprised me. I didn't you don't expect it because when you watch the film it's mostly winning down the field and just crushing crushing man and press coverage and I think that's what he's going to do as a pro. I don't think you know he's going to have a very high target per run rate number as a rookie. That would really surprise me. Agreed. But he did have a 33% target per route run rate in his final two seasons at Old Miss. Um, I I think a lot of that was Kein was designing the offense around him as the wide receiver one, but still I pulled all data for wide receivers drafted rounds one or two since 2017. And I filtered out anything that came freshman or sophomore seasons um just to try to get as close of a comparison as we can to Trey Harris who was doing this later in his career, you know. Um, and the top target per route run rates you've got at the very top, it's like Andy Isabella and Wondelle Robinson where it's like short yardage guys just kind of pumping ridiculous numbers. 40% for them. The next highest is Trey Harris at 33%. This 33% number is really, really high. Um, the guys immediately after him are Rashy Rice at 32%. Malik Neighbors and Devonte Smith 31% and Tedo McMillan at 30%. And so this it's just not what you would expect for a downfield x receiver. All those wide receivers other than Trey Harris and Neighbors and T-Mac had an A dot in like the 8 to 10 yard range whereas those guys were like in the 12 13 yard range and still he was drawing targets at such a high rate and so the result was just this absurd yard per run rate for Trey Harris. Um, yeah, it was Louis Louisiana Tech here. I've got his data on the screen here. 5.42 42 yards per route run in his final season at Miss 4.13 across his career. Um, and like I said, really good target and first down rates to balance it out. It wasn't just big plays. We'll see how it will translate. We're going to talk about him in more detail and compare his route tree to like Brian Thomas Jr. and how he translated um, from doing a lot of the simple stuff to being used more as a pro. Uh, we'll talk about that on another podcast, but I did just want to bring up that the brow data for Trey Harris is crazy. It's way beyond what you'd expect for his draft range um, and fantasy right now. And if he's good, what does that mean for Lad Manki, right? And if Lad Makoni, who has a history of getting injured, ever goes down, what does this mean for Trey Harris, who has shown an ability to be a wide receiver one in an offense? Yes. Um, it's all it's all very very interesting. We he's just by far, if you look at last year's college per route data, it's like Trey Harris, you have to talk about him because it's crazy. You have to. And I think the most interesting part to me, these are always players that stand out to me, is how often he won down the field, whether that be go routes, posts, inbreakers, out breakers in the intermediate deep range, while also running a 454. Those players stand out to me. Those are the players that I pinpoint on my because those are the players that you know a have more game speed than testing speed. B are going to be push down draft boards and fantasy drafts because people are following this stuff like what's his 40 time and can he compete in the NFL without a four four time and C it shows me that he's really good at getting in and out of his breaks and that's to me way more important playing the wide receiver position than raw speed straight line speed. These are all things that show up on his tape. I will say this, Jacob, I am a little biased from that standpoint because I watch more Trey Harris tape than likely any wide receiver just because I watch so much Jackson Dart tape. But man, was that tape impressive. He's the eye test check all boxes kind of guy. And he reminds I said this like four times already on the show, but I'll just say it again. He reminds me so much of when I evaluated McLaren on tape out of Ohio State and I was like, "This dude's really good." And then I didn't end up drafting him as much as I wanted to in that season in fantasy because I was just like I am a little worried about the 40 time. I am a little worried about is it gonna speed is the speed gonna match up to NFL play. You always have to know with these guys if they're doing it against SEC competition or and you know in McLaren's case it was Big 10 competition. There's a good chance they're going to be able to do it against NFL competition because it's not coming down to like can you run a 40 in 44. It's coming down to can you get in and out of your breaks and create separation and set your routes up and have release backs off line of scrimmage. Harris has all of those things. It's why I'm so high on him. And I love the point you made about Makanki's injury history and the potential for what Harris can do if Makanki goes down. Yeah, man. Watching him verse press is so fun. He's so strong. Like he just powers through guys. And then he does run away from people, runs through and by people like he's a lot faster than his time would suggest. And I don't compare him to Mclloren, by the way. I want to make that clear. They're different body types. I just compare them to how they ways how they won. To me, he reminds me more of like a poor man's AJ Brown. Wow. Yeah. Yeah. It's tough to make a comparison for poor man's. Keep that in mind. He's kind of like not as explosive as Brown, first of all. Not as straight line as Brown. He's kind of like George Pickins in the way that he wins. That's a good way. Okay. I like the Pickkins, but poor man's Pickkins, too, because no one's as flexible. He's not as flexible as Pickkins. Yeah, Pickins is a freak, man. Like, for so much better than people realize. We're We're on him, right, this year. I know we're on him at draft cost. For sure. For sure. We'll talk about picking some more detail at some point soon. Great.

All right, that's all the time we have for today on Beyond the Box Score. This was a jam-packed episode. I really loved doing this one. I had a great time. I hope you guys enjoyed it as well. Look, we're trying to build a community here at Beyond the Box Score. We need your help to build a community here. That means get involved in the comment section. Get involved on some inside jokes. I hope they're at my expense. I don't mind them. I like them as long as we're building the show. We had a great show today. I love the number seeing how many people have you joined in. Sharing it on Twitter as well or X, whatever they call it. Please hit the like button right now if you haven't already. Please share, please subscribe. If you're on iTunes and you're listening on Spotify right now, either of those two, please download the episode. And finally, leave a comment. Let us know. Get involved. Leave questions. I want to start to work that into the show as well. The goal for me is to make it a community beyond the box score, a part of a fantasy football today community. Um, I love what they've done over there on Fantasy Football Today. Adamer, everyone has been a big part of just making that a community where everyone's inside on the jokes involved. I want this to be that, too. So, please do us a favor. Do all those things. Um, Dan, whoever made your kitchen hates you. Oh, they hate me for sure. Trust me, this project has seven months in the making. In January, he said it'll be done three weeks. We're here at the end of July. But that's neither here or there. Have a great rest of your week and we'll talk to you on Thursday.