Transcription
Bitcoin at 76,870 dollars and today is a great day as I will prepare a novelty for you. I will present a novelty to you, that of the Medusa member area. It is finally accessible to members who are currently who are currently part of the Medusa circle. So, as I was saying, Bitcoin at 60,769.50 dollars. We find a lot of data in our member area, and that's precisely what will serve as a basis for me to present my entire analysis. My analysis is based on my five pillars: technical analysis, on-chain analysis, macroeconomic analysis, derivatives contracts, as well as market sentiment. You can see the Medusa score, which indicates approximately where we stand, whether in a distribution phase or an accumulation phase. Right now, we are around 33%, in a bearish configuration [throat clearing] driven by the technical and derivatives parts, which are rather oriented downwards. Whereas our only, uh, our only pillars that are timidly struggling to improve the score are the macroeconomic part, on which there is a lot to say, and the on-chain part, which is desperately holding on. So, here you have an analysis that is generated from all the indicators that we follow on this investment circle. So, we will go through all these parts, and I will explain to you a little bit what this member area is and how it can be useful to you if you decide to join the investment circle. So, regarding Bitcoin, currently at almost 60, almost 77,000 dollars, we just crossed 77,000 dollars a few minutes ago as I am recording this video. We have just crossed back down, especially this level. For me, we are in the process of turning around. I shared this in my investment circle a few days ago, precisely to very significantly reduce our exposure. We had taken a few nice positions, notably the one that was the most favorable, Kite USDT, which is a payment processor for AI agents, which gave us very good results. We closed the position a few days ago, very, very recently. We were able to capture the movement starting around May 6th. It was on May 6th that I sent this trade. And we closed a good part of the position here. So, you see this 45% rise is precisely linked to the fact that when we have interesting technical indicators, in this case, on the 3-day timeframe, we had Bollinger Bands that were, well no, it wasn't on the 3-day, it was on the daily. We had Bollinger Bands that were very, very tight. Right here, you see it with the Bollinger Bands, they were very, very tight. On Alfractal, we also had interesting data on whale positions. Positions that were practically similar to those we had during the period at the beginning of January 2026, which had preceded this very strong upward movement. So, you see that Kite is still continuing its trend. I do not recommend buying Kite now, especially given the current Bitcoin configuration. We will talk about it, but we have very alarming signals on Bitcoin and on the majority of altcoins. So, we must protect ourselves from potential drops, and you are all aware of this, I imagine, but we do not buy vertical phases. Now, if you hold some, you can take profits in a measured way on the rise. Enjoy these upward phases little by little. But for now, we must remain cautious. So, regarding Bitcoin, you see that we have been breaking supports for a few days now, and on the technical side, it's starting to become quite concerning. You see that we have fallen below the daily Bollinger Band median, which is currently around 79,300 dollars. This is starting to become a bit concerning because, as you can see, this Bollinger Band median had served as support. Specifically, around April 30th, when we came back to 75,000 dollars, we took support on this Bollinger Band median before making a new impulse. And unfortunately, this time, it was retested during the period of May 13th, 14th, 15th, and finally, it was broken along with our 79,000 dollar support, which was a very important support. And so, for your information, you see, we exited around 80,000 dollars here, precisely on a rebound. We had a rather weak rebound that foreshadowed what was to come, and at that point, we started to exit the bulk of the portfolio before gradually reducing our exposure step by step, depending on the progress of these indicators. We will move on to the technical analysis part to show you precisely the particularity of this pillar. We have a few lights, a few bullish strengths on the technical side. Unfortunately, we have very few. The Weekly RSI is supporting us relatively well, even though, as you can see, it's on quite long timeframes that the technical indicators are the most bullish. Unfortunately, you see an RSI that is in convergence with the price, which is still oriented upwards, even though it has hit the neutral zone of 50, which is still not a very good sign. And the second thing is also the Bollinger Bands, on which we are above the median zone on the Weekly Bollinger Bands. We have Weekly Bollinger Bands that are gradually tightening. These are pretty much the only things that are positive on the technical side. The rest is still very negative. We have structures that are rather bearish. The Daily RSI is bearish, as we saw, but you see here the Daily RSI is showing a bearish convergence with the price, meaning a peak on the RSI, a peak right here. Hop, hop, hop on the price. So, unfortunately, it's starting to become very complicated. We see this on the different blocks. We are in an expected bearish continuation with an Ichimoku where we have broken the Tenkan, we have broken the Kijun. You see them right here as well. This is concerning because these are things that have been supporting Bitcoin for quite some time. It's been about since the beginning of April that we had a bullish trend that was forming. We had gradually broken resistance levels. We had a lagging span, this famous yellow curve that reflects the price, with a few candles of delay. I don't know how I've set it, but I think I've kept the default parameters. Yes, we are on the 30-day lagging span. Yes, 30 days of lagging span. So, there's a 30-day delay between the current prices and the lagging span. And you see that we had broken free from the Kumo, this cloud between the Chikuspan B in red and the Chikuspan A in green. What this means is that we have real structural weakness in the price. It's not a simple retracement, it's not a simple small correction before a bullish recovery. We are gradually breaking structurally all the levels that were supporting us. This hasn't happened for a good while, breaking the Tenkan and Kijun daily. We still have our Kumo which is a bit lower, around, you see, 73,000 to 74,000 dollars. It could act as support. Unfortunately, it's starting to become worrying because we have convergence at the momentum level on the daily RSI, on the daily MACD. On the weekly, the Ichimoku is also bearish, and we are structurally breaking all support levels, whether it's the previous weekly low, the current weekly high, which has therefore become resistance. We have broken all support levels. You see it right here, the support levels you see. So, you have the price quotation and you have all these support levels above us. And this, unfortunately, is starting to weigh on us because each time, walls start to crumble beneath us and are instantaneously rebuilt mathematically above our heads. And so, unfortunately, all the work we've done for a month and a half, between the beginning of April and mid-May, unfortunately, that work is starting to change, and it's not insignificant. And so, this change, the change in structure, is very closely linked to a psychological change. And that's what we will discuss, particularly in the derivatives contracts pillar. So, you see this graph here, its purpose is to very simply represent the support zones, the resistance zones, to see a bit where we stand. And here, well, it's very clear, we are in a phase where we are structurally breaking support levels, and that is unfortunately quite problematic. Another indicator that is extremely important to me is the TAS ratio Channel. The idea is to compare the Bitcoin market cap with the stablecoin market cap. The real goal is to see when stablecoins enter the market and when they leave the market. And this TAAS ratio channel, which you can also get for free on TradingView, you can have it right here. Let's start removing indicators, otherwise we'll get lost. You see this TAAS ratio channel that I talk about regularly, it has just made a crossover. It's an indicator that makes crossovers and gives us signals relatively infrequently, but when it does, they are rather very relevant. You see, for example, when we have crossovers of these two moving averages, and especially above this overbought zone, above 55, you see that unfortunately these are signals that must be taken very seriously, because as you can see, I'm putting vertical bars at the moments when we had these crossovers. Unfortunately, these are zones where we had violent reversals afterward. You see the crossovers we've had, they were systematically things that should not have been ignored. And so, unfortunately, this indicator, once again, carries the weight of, well, precisely the bearish scenario, which unfortunately adds to the list of all the technical aspects, which unfortunately, as you can see, remains factual. I have an approach for those who have been following me for some time, I have a quantitative approach. So, I rely solely on reliable indicators, and that's why I've built this member area, which is indeed accessible to all members of the investment circle to navigate these different points. Each time, there is text associated with all of this to understand the structure of these indicators, to understand the movements, and to have not only the indicator but also the pedagogy that goes with it. It took me quite some time to set all of this up. So, the idea is to be able to be in my head, in the head of someone who has been analyzing the market for, I don't know, practically 9 years now. So, you see, that's quite a long time. The next part will be the derivatives contracts part. I told you, it's also something that has been supporting Bitcoin for a long time. Derivatives contracts were rather favorable to a bullish continuation for a long time, and now we are in a rather bearish phase, as longs are piling up on the downside. You see, there's a lot of red. Unfortunately, it's because almost everything is very strongly oriented downwards. You see it here, we have the Bitcoin price in white and the funding rates from Okex in red and green. Red shows that for almost the entire period, you see, from April 14th to our peak on May 6th, we had about 3 weeks during which we had a rather structural and well-structured rise in Bitcoin, with flat phases, phases of small compression and retracement, then bullish expansion phases, which were driven by moments when Bitcoin was supported by negative sentiment, traders who, as you can see here thanks to negative funding rates. Funding rates are simply this indicator that allows us to measure whether traders are more oriented downwards or upwards. And you see that when this indicator is red, it means that the mass of traders are more oriented downwards. And when we have bars that are rather green, as currently, we have traders who are more oriented upwards. Now, you might ask, how can having a lot of traders going up be a problem? Well, it's a problem because the crowd is always wrong. And when a significant number of traders decide to take trades now, hoping to see the Bitcoin price above 83,000, 85,000, 90,000 dollars, unfortunately, they are piling up their liquidations mathematically below the price. And you see that below the price, we are starting to have quite a few liquidations that have been created, including a large cluster around 70,000 dollars. More than, well, here at 69,990, we have almost 4 billion long positions open at these levels. At 70,161 dollars, we have 3 billion positions. In short, around 10 billion long positions have their stop orders or liquidation levels located exactly at 70,000 dollars. And obviously, you know that market makers, liquidity providers, as we say in French, know this, and it's something they monitor because, simply put, how do exchanges like Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, all of them, live? They live off commission fees from their clients. And so, from time to time, well, they are tempted to do something that is perfectly illegal in traditional finance but not illegal in the crypto market, as it's an unregulated market. You have the possibility to trade against your clients, and therefore, you can use your clients' funds to play against your clients. When a client deposits, let's say, 50,000 dollars on Binance to buy Bitcoin, well, Binance holds these 50,000 dollars as collateral, which theoretically gives Bitcoin on the platform to that client. But in the meantime, they still have the 50,000 dollars in their portfolio, and they can decide to play with these 50,000 dollars. And that's what led to the FTX bankruptcy in 2022. We have platforms that are sometimes a bit opaque and sometimes have rather bad behaviors. Now, this is not the case for all platforms. For example, Coinbase is not like that. I don't know about the others, but I know that Coinbase and Kraken, apparently, do not do this, and that's why they are regulated in the United States. Well, you have platforms that do this and will enjoy making the Bitcoin price drop, accentuating certain trends to recover their clients' liquidation levels because, transparently, since they are their clients, they know very well how they are positioned long or short, and therefore they can accentuate certain phases to recover liquidity levels. When an order is executed, well, indeed, a commission is paid, which remunerates the exchange. Now, when we have a lot of large liquidation clusters at certain points, well, we will be tempted to manipulate the price to recover that zone, to liquidate clients, and to recover the famous commission fees. And this is something that is quite repetitive in cryptocurrencies, and particularly in Bitcoin, which is the largest listed asset with the largest derivatives contracts in the crypto sector. So, this is exactly what we are observing: a rise in funding rates during a bearish phase. This is what this small paragraph explains to us: bearish divergence, funding, price. The price is falling, but funding rates are rising. Longs are piling up on the downside, risk of cascade, liquidation. And indeed, that's the risk. The risk is having liquidations in succession. A "buy the dip" sentiment, you absolutely must buy. It's an exceptional opportunity to go back up. Those who don't buy will regret it, etc. Anyway, the same discourse that always comes back. And I imagine I'll get it in the comments. Every time I make a video in which I am a bit more bearish than usual, I receive comments. Obviously, that's normal. But not to consider this scenario, not to have it in mind and not to take this scenario into account, that's a problem. What you see here, what you see in this member area, what you see as indicators, are factual indicators. I base my discourse on these indicators, I interpret these indicators, but the indicators give us information. It's up to us to read them or ignore them. I choose to read them. Smart money is the same. Large portfolios, whales, are currently in a marked distribution phase. We see it here on Alfractal, the WH versus Retail Delta. We are simply comparing two cohorts: small portfolios, large portfolios. What are large portfolios doing? What are small portfolios doing? When we have convergences, we have an indicator that is rather flat, rather neutral. That is to say, the buyers are whales and retail. Well, okay, we have trending phases. For example, after the tariff panic, we had a phase where whales were buyers and small portfolios were buyers. Well, these are generally very bullish phases because, consequently, everyone is a buyer. So, obviously, we have a strong imbalance between supply and demand, and therefore, we have a price that follows this imbalance until it compensates and until volatility returns to this indicator when we find whales with contrarian positions compared to retail and vice versa. So, these are obviously things to watch, but the moments when we have the biggest imbalances, so whales being very positioned to buy, like for example in November 2025 when we hit our bottom of 80,000 dollars, we have whales, you see with this very significant green spike, whales being very, very massively positioned to buy, deciding to buy massively to follow, to buy the dip, to do a buy the dip. But this time, when it's a buy the dip by whales, well, you see what happens? Well, we have a rebound. And you see that this happened exactly when we came back to our 60,000 dollars at the beginning of February 2026. Specifically, from February 4th to 6th, we had a massive increase in whale positions at a time when retail was doing what? Well, they were doing the exact opposite. We had retail selling massively, and that's why this green curve made a very significant bullish spike. And so, what are we observing exactly currently? Well, it's the exact opposite. The exact opposite with a very significant drop in this whale versus retail Delta. And that's the information this member area gives us, with an important delta showing that whales are currently in a marked distribution phase. So, a very significant sale of their Bitcoin, while small portfolios are waking up, hoping that this dip is just a simple buying opportunity. Unfortunately, unfortunately, that's why you need to be able to read all these pillars: technical analysis, on-chain analysis, macro, market sentiment, derivatives contracts. All these different pillars give us information. Specializing in one area, why not? For me, it makes almost no sense, because we have the possibility to get a lot of information from all these different pillars that contribute to providing a global vision, a truly complete vision of the crypto universe, and not just the technical part, not just what is visibly happening to the price, but also what is happening with derivatives contracts, what is happening in terms of flows, what is happening in terms of macroeconomics, and also on investor sentiment, to be able to understand, because you know that markets are very closely linked to human psychology. Well, indeed, it's important to also follow the market sentiment part. We also have, at the level of open interest, something I wanted to show you, which is an extremely powerful indicator but also, precisely, very rarely shared. And this indicator is open interest. Open interest is precisely the number of Bitcoin that are open as a counterparty to derivative contracts. So, every time you take a trade, you add your position to the open interest. And this is something very important because it shows the appetite for risk of different investors. You have several ways to follow it. You have, in particular, leveraged positions. You have the possibility to look at the average leverage on derivative contracts. You see that this average leverage is continuing to increase. So, this allows you to see if traders are rather aggressive. But you can also know if you have more or fewer traders. And this indicator, well, you have it precisely here in this member area. You have the order flow, well, the open interest which appears right here and which you also see on the long-term view. You see over 365 days, you have the open interest right here, and it is currently at 45.21 billion dollars. This is extremely, extremely high. I will show you a bit of the global picture from previous cycles. You see that we are practically at an ATH. We have practically never had as many open positions on derivative contracts as we currently have on derivative contracts. This is something very problematic because it happens very rarely and almost always results in a capitulation and a bearish correction. You know that open interest is the number of open positions, which does not indicate whether traders are buyers or sellers. However, Bitcoin being a trendentially bullish asset, you know that since its listing in 2009-2010 when it was priced at less than a cent to being priced at over 126,000 dollars on October 6th, 2025, we are on a logarithmic curve trend, a linear regression, and therefore, we tend to have traders positioning themselves more massively to buy rather than to sell. We have a bullish bias on Bitcoin, and that's why most of the time when we have massive excesses of open interest, they are generally massive excesses of bullish open interest, and this usually results in capitulations, correction phases that can range from 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 70% at times on Bitcoin. Generally, we tend to be between 30% and 50%. So, unfortunately, with Bitcoin currently at 60, at 76,800 dollars, well, you see, if we simply hit 30%, we would come back to 52,000 dollars. Will this happen? Honestly, it's always easy to be ultra-bearish. I don't know. You saw that during this bullish phase, I became bullish at one point when I saw that the indicators supported the bullish scenario as the most probable. The current scenario, and the currently most probable scenario, is a bearish one. The day it turns around, I will change my bias. That is precisely the particularity I can have in managing my portfolio and in the signals I can send on the Med index and on my investment circle. It's precisely the ability to change bias and to expose myself in stages. I do not expose 100% of my portfolio at any given time, just as I do not expose 0% of my portfolio in a snap of the fingers. There are always stages, there are always phases where I gradually expose and de-expose myself. This allows me to benefit from certain bullish phases, as we saw at the beginning of the video with certain cryptos like Kite, but we also had other cryptos like Pump, like Virtual, etc., which had good dynamics. You can benefit from them and still de-expose yourself when the market turns around, and that's precisely what you need to be able to detect in terms of buying and selling pressure. We are currently in a phase where, between buying pressure and selling pressure, we are at a probable local top, which unfortunately, as you know, tends to result, as you saw in the past, at the beginning of 2024, at the end of 2024, in mid-2025. These are generally local top phases that result in correction phases that can last a few days, a few weeks, a few months. We can't necessarily feel it from the beginning. We can't know how long it will last. However, we can know that it's coming and therefore protect capital. That is precisely the purpose of this member area, to be able to judge when it's interesting to stay in a position and when it becomes interesting to leave our positions. You see that on the whale versus retail, we have whales in a distribution phase compared to retail, but they are also distributing their tokens in absolute value. So, we also see this at the liquidation level. We have especially a lot of liquidations below the price. You see that the most significant weights are below the price. 69,700, 75,200, 76,000 dollars. Below the price, we have quite a few liquidation zones awaiting us, and notably this large liquidation zone at 70,000 dollars, which risks being reached if we don't manage to curb this bearish momentum that is currently driving the Bitcoin price lower and lower. You see that at the SOPR level as well, we are potentially seeing a crossover between the two curves, the orange curve and the blue curve, which correspond to two moving averages on this famous SOPR. So, the Spent Output Profit Ratio, you see it right here. Unfortunately, when these two curves cross, it's generally a bad sign. You see that when they cross during phases where this oscillator is rather high, it's generally powerful local tops. But also, when they cross, forgive me, when they cross during rather bearish phases, it's also a moment that can lead to capitulations, as we saw back in 2018. We had, in fact, the blue curve crossing below the orange curve around September, and two months later, we had a huge correction that brought Bitcoin down to 3,200 dollars at the time, going from 6,300-6,400 dollars to about 3,000 dollars, a little over 3,200. So, we had a very violent purge, which also allowed for the purging of this open interest at the time. Yes, no, here we don't have the history, but the open interest at the time was also very high, for those who remember. Regarding Bitcoin ETF flows, you see that we have rather bearish flows as well, with BlackRock at the forefront of these bearish movements. This is what we find in the on-chain analysis part. You see that it's practically the only part that is bullish, but unfortunately, as you can see, on BlackRock's portfolio, it's rather bearish. It's the only bearish indicator in the on-chain part, almost the only one. And you see that here, well, this is exactly what we have, an inversion between the two moving averages. You see this pink curve and this green curve, which show us that, for the moment, we have a rather bearish flow, a cumulative flow that is rather bearish. And unfortunately, this also weighs on the Bitcoin price because we are looking for an imbalance between buyers and sellers, but if we are bullish, we are looking for an imbalance with more buyers than sellers. And unfortunately, with BlackRock becoming a seller, we have something that is reflected in apparent demand. So, I will show you here on CryptoQuant. On the on-chain analysis part, you have an apparent demand that had almost returned to positive and which is finally returning to negative, which is finally returning to a selling dynamic with sellers who are taking the lead and deciding to accentuate this downward phase. Unfortunately, this weighs on Bitcoin overall and on this on-chain part, which remains relatively bullish. So, we have an expected direction that is bullish for the on-chain part. Even though, as you know, the on-chain part and the macro part have much longer time horizons than derivatives contracts and the technical part. The technical part and the derivatives part are what cause our small oscillations within a day, within a week, within a month. The on-chain part and the macroeconomic part are what will give us the directions from month to month, year to year, cycle to cycle, and so on. And here, what we observe on the on-chain part are rather indicators and oscillators that are rather oriented upwards. We will see this, for example, on these indicators. Hop! Whether it's, for example, the Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio, where you see we are closer to a bottom than a top, even though we are not yet in major accumulation zones. This is also the case for the Reserve Risk. You see we are closer to a bottom than a top, but we are not yet in capitulation zones. The CryptoQuant Bitcoin Bull Market Cycle Indicator, we find it with phases of extreme fear. Have we reached the extreme fear phase? Not yet. We have not yet reached these phases where buying back becomes obvious. No, it's not the case yet. Buying back becomes obvious on paper, I specify, because when it happens, I will make another video, and I can tell you that in the comments, we should have a lot of people telling us, "It's not time to buy, Bitcoin is going to..."
continue to decrease and so on." You see on the NUPL, we have returned to neutral zones, we have had periods that were more conducive to buying, but you see that we are still closer to a bottom than a top. This is precisely why this member area indicates this figure of 60% with the idea that well, we are in a relevant configuration if you play from cycle to cycle to position yourself. Indeed, buying Bitcoin around $76,000 if you believe, as may be the case for me for example, that Bitcoin will one day reach $500,000, $800,000. Now, I'm not saying it will be in this decade, perhaps the next, between 2030 and 2040 probably in my opinion. But and this is not investment advice. It is quite possible that something unexpected will happen. I remind you that it is a young asset that is less than well, yes, now a little over 15 years old but barely over 15 years old. So you have to be relatively measured in your exposures. Having Bitcoin at $76,000 in the long term remains relevant. We have a production cost that is, depending on the issuers, rather between $40,000 and $65,000 depending on the Bitcoin producers. And so obviously buying it relatively close to production prices is like buying an ounce of gold around its production price, it remains relevant in the long term. Now, is this the moment when I will expose my portfolio to Bitcoin price variations, while I am doing active management, while I think it is possible to optimize my entry point and optimize my exit points? Obviously not. Obviously not. And this is very closely linked to what we discussed at the beginning of the video and also to this deteriorating macroeconomic part with interest rate hikes on the US 10-year bond, for example. We have interest rate hikes and unfortunately, this is a problem. You see, a 0.2% increase over 7 days, 5% over 30 days, and almost 10% over 90 days on the US 10-year bond. This is a problem. This is a problem because risky assets benefit from low rates. And it's not magic. Low rates allow the economy to develop. Why? When you have low rates, companies, individuals can borrow to, for individuals to make companies work, for companies to invest and hire. And so we will have phases of expansion in which companies will invest, for example, to buy machines. Machine manufacturers will therefore hire to develop more and more machines. We will have an increase in prices that will be pulled upwards since we have free or cheaper money. And so this supports the overall economy, which in turn increases company profits. If companies make more profits, their stock prices rise. You know the famous P/E ratio, the price-to-earnings ratio. I imagine you know it. This P/E ratio means that the asset's price is obviously correlated to its earnings, and that's why we await quarterly results with such impatience. That's why we were so vigilant last month regarding the Big Four and the Magnificent Seven. Were they able to maintain such significant returns on their financial securities? Well, for now, it's holding up. But the problem is that if interest rates rise, unfortunately, given the investments being made, whether in AI or in the rest of the companies, it risks becoming problematic. And you see here, we have a hawkish bias with anticipated interest rate hikes. So unfortunately, you see, the Fed's anticipation is a problem. This is what we see here with this CME Group chart. A chart that I've been showing you for a while but which I've summarized in this member area to give you a score. The closer we are to zero, the more hawkish we are, meaning the more we think there will be a restrictive monetary policy, and rather dovish with a monetary policy that might ease. Well, you see that the more time passes, the more we are in a phase where it seems we are heading towards a pace of interest rate hikes. And you see here, we are anticipating a potential interest rate hike starting in the first quarter of 2027. That's not so long from now. That's three quarters, it will go very fast. And unfortunately, this is very closely linked to the fact that oil is stabilizing relatively high, that we are seeing inflation increases. You see on Trueflation, we are at 2.07% inflation. That's starting to become a concern. Oil, you see here, the Brent crude barrel is at $109. You see that we are still in an upward continuation phase. If I show you on a 4-hour chart with this 250-period EMA, you see that we are sliding above this EMA. We have leaned on it once, twice, three times, but you see that for now it is not giving way. We are closer to an upward continuation than a return to a downward trend and a return to prices we saw for quite a few years between $60 and $70 per barrel. We are very far from that, and unfortunately, it is starting to weigh on American inflation, of course. We saw it with the CPI figures which came out higher, the CPI figures which came out at 3.8% instead of the expected 3.7%, whereas we already had 3.3% the previous month. And this is obviously something the market is watching. [grumble] This week, on Thursday, we will have the manufacturing PMIs for May, the manufacturing PMI and the services PMIs. We expect slight contraction figures for manufacturing PMIs, and slight expansion for services PMIs. Obviously, if we have bad news on this front, you can imagine that it will sound the death knell for this bull market for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, which are extremely uncorrelated with Bitcoin. The Nasdaq is going straight up. Frankly, it's disconcerting, it's also worrying, because such a powerful straight line with such a bullish momentum, we'll look at it on the RSI, but it's starting to be scary. It's starting to be scary, especially since, as you can see, we have just left the overbought zone, forgive me, on the 4-hour chart, it's starting to become very, very dangerous. And obviously, the market senses it, there is profit-taking. This is also why the market is slowing down, but it is slowing down at a very, very high level. We are almost at 30,000 points. I remind you that at the time of Covid, at the time of Covid, we had a pre-Covid top of less than 10,000 points. We have almost tripled the valuation of the Nasdaq since our pre-Covid top. And if we look at our Covid low, we are almost at a 4.5x performance, 341% increase, 22,965 points increase to go from 6,700 points to 29,685 points. Now, I'm not playing the prophet of doom with a correction that could be very violent, but a market breather, even just to correct and catch up to the levels we saw at the end of 2025, which are around 25,000 points, is something that would obviously be salvific because the more we postpone the correction, the more likely it is to be violent. We have a first stop at 27,000 points. A breather around that level remains healthy, and unfortunately, it is macroeconomics that risks sending the Nasdaq to the canvas. As you can see here, global liquidity is compressing a bit, which remains rather favorable to the crypto market. We have an expansion, an expansion that has accelerated nicely. So we have a second derivative that is positive, but we have a first derivative that is starting to slow down a bit. So, we were, 63 days ago, in a phase of moderate expansion. We are now in a reflation phase where we are gradually favoring the dollar and bond markets with this 10-year yield rising, in a phase where equity markets are starting to weaken a bit. For now, these are early signals, they are quite weak signals. This doesn't mean it's necessarily a problem. Obviously, it's very linked to the fact that the technicals and the derivatives are very bearish, and that this additional bearish catalyst could weigh on the price of Bitcoin. But in itself, it's not necessarily a problem at the moment. Unfortunately, unfortunately, these risks must not be confirmed because if we have a confirmation at one point or another, and notably we could have this confirmation on Thursday with the manufacturing PMIs and services PMIs, if we have this confirmation, unfortunately the risk is to send the Nasdaq to its first stop and to send Bitcoin lower to purge its famous open interest which is much too high and which, as you can see, despite the decrease of about $7,000 between $83,000 and $67,000, the open interest has not decreased for now. It will therefore be necessary, a priori, to decrease much more violently to hope to purge all these compulsive buyers in this crypto market. As you can see, at the level of market sentiment. We have a market sentiment that is rather neutral. We have a fear and greed index that is rather in fear. You see here with the 28% fear and greed index. So we are still in fear. There is no absolute panic, and that's why we are rather neutral on this market sentiment. Now, you see something concerning here, it's on Coinbase. You see the position of Coinbase on the App Store. This is something I monitor, which is part of the weak signals but which are extremely powerful. Now, we call them weak signals because they are not necessarily directly linked to the price, not necessarily directly linked to price action, momentum, etc., but they are things that show us phases of greed, phases of avarice. And you see that a few days ago, about ten days ago, the Coinbase app was at position number 33 on the App Store in the finance category in the United States. We moved up about 7 days ago to 31st place, and now we are already at 22nd place. This shows that more and more people are downloading the Coinbase app, which means they are motivated to invest in crypto. If these are people downloading Coinbase, they are people who didn't have it before and therefore didn't have crypto, it's very likely they will deposit some funds in the coming days. And unfortunately, when retail investors do this, at a time when, as you can see, whales are rather in a phase of massive selling, unfortunately the risk is to see it all settled by this famous retail FOMO which could therefore be sent very deeply downwards. So, if you want to access this member area, you have a copilot that allows you to discuss with my second brain by artificial intelligence. You have the return of all the briefs, you have the track record, my real-time allocation, access to the short-term strategy as well. So don't hesitate, all of this is accessible to all members of my investment circle. So don't hesitate. If you have questions, you can also discuss with me via Telegram on my website. You have all the links in the description. Those who wish can also subscribe to my newsletter, which is free, and download my 90-page manifesto. I've put everything in there, honestly. In 90 pages, I've put everything I've learned as an interesting concept. Obviously, here you will have the theory, and thanks to this member area and the briefs from the investment circle part, you will have the practical application of this theory. But if you want the theory already, don't hesitate, it's free, you can download it via the links in the description. I hope you enjoyed this video and also all the indicators I can share with you. I'm giving you, I'm making available to you a lot of data that is normally only accessible through premium accounts and accounts that can sometimes be quite expensive. So I hope it makes you happy. So, I wish you an excellent week and see you soon on the Médusa channel. See you later.