Kopi Time E180: Tech wave with Bain's Ravi Vijayaraghavan

Welcome to Kobe Time, a podcast series on markets and economies from DVS Group Research. I'm Tamur, chief economist, welcoming you to our 180th episode. Today we will discuss the astonishing tech wave we are encountering presently. Our guest Ravi Vijay Ragavan is the head of APEC technology and cloud services practice at Bay & Company. He's also a member of Bane's global PE and M&A practices. Ravi focuses on global strategy transformation, due diligence, profitability turnaround and growth blueprint for technology and telecoms clients. Ravi, welcome to Kobang.

>> Thank you Tammer. Pleasure to be here.

>> It's so great to have you. Ravi, you've had an extensive career dealing with all sorts of clients across geographies on the tech area. So let's use your experience to cast a comparative lens on the current tech wave, the exuberance that we're seeing with the one, say, the dot-com boom.

>> Mhm. It's uh, yes, I've been, I've been in tech almost 40 years. I guess I'm dating myself by saying that. But I cannot honestly remember a time that feels quite like the present time. And if I roll the clock back, so that the day in whatever November of 2022, I think it was, when when we first GPT, GPD entered our vocabularies for the first time. In some ways, it felt like, yes, this is exciting and this is fun. And look, I'm a geek and I studied AI in grad school many, many moons ago. And so it was exciting and it was fun. You expected, or I expected, we would see what we've seen till now, which is every one of these tech waves seems to be on steroids compared to the previous one, right? If you think about how fast Instagram grew relative to Facebook, and how fast TikTok grew relative to, you know, they've all kind of compounded, if you will, and lately how cloud code has grown, correct? With everything else. So if you go back to that point in time, I said, yeah, this is going to be bigger and faster. And sure, it's been bigger and faster, right? Within a couple of months, 100 million users on ChatGPT. Um, and then the amount of spending that that sort of started perking up right then, which again, you said, yeah, it's going to be bigger and faster than before. That maybe isn't as much of a surprise.

What I think is different is, is I'd say maybe three things. The first is that this is truly pervasive, if you will, as a technology. Uh, what we're seeing now, you know, when you look back at the internet, it changed commerce. It's changed, um, information, how we got information, how we collected information, so forth. If you look at the mobility that came some a decade or so after that, it changed, uh, you know, access and and communications and connectivity. But this one changes seemingly everything, right? The ability of this technology to do everything from searching for data to analyzing to synthesizing to reasoning to acting. It's, it's extraordinary. And so what you're seeing now is it's just as useful for a, for a radiologist as it is for a banker. It's just as useful for a software developer as it is for a student, uh, for a journalist, for an artist. And so I think the pervasiveness of this technology is actually truly different. We haven't quite seen the same.

The second, and I'm sure we'll, we'll get into this some more, is the fact that it is actually self-improving. Again, you had to, you had to make some human beings had to go and make Instagram better the next time around. Uh, but this thing makes itself better on its own to some degree, every single time that it, you know, any any time you give it. That is quite truly unique. We have not seen quite the same thing.

The third, and I'm just back from a few days in, uh, in Silicon Valley. You see a lot of excitement, you see some paranoia, but you see a lot of anxiety as well. And in a way, maybe anxiety with new technology is not new. Uh, going back to the Luddites of two centuries ago. Uh, but you would say that most of the concerns were by people or or groups of people who felt somehow they are going to be harmed or hurt or left behind by it. But this time, you're also seeing some of the most successful people who are benefiting from it, like the CEOs of OpenAI and Anthropic saying, "We need regulation." That's new.

>> Absolutely. And Ravi, as you know, a few weeks ago, a co-author of mine and I collaborated on an article, and you and I have had some interesting exchanges around that.

>> And then you see Trump saying something to that effect, which is, which is astonishing.

>> Indeed. Indeed. Uh, so the, um, alarm of being disintermediated or dealing with something that is sort of out of control, >> I think is rather unique in this way, because we never thought the internet, for all its good and bad, was sort of, you know, running away from us. We never felt we were losing control.

>> Correct.

>> And I think there's a sense that we may lose control.

>> Right.

So Ravi, let's talk a little bit about your last week's visit to Silicon Valley. Some of these numbers on capex, I mean, it's been going on for about a year or two. >> They just get bigger and bigger. I mean, tens, if not hundreds of billions of dollars, and if you add it up with the whole world's investment in the trillions, >> isn't it a bit risky to have so much money going into one sector?

>> So it is mind-boggling sums of money. I mean, we, we throw around a trillion these days like, you know, honestly, like it's nothing. Is a trillion >> unfathomable?

>> It is unfathomable. Um, you know, a billion is a lot of money, and you know, a trillion is, uh, is truly something. So take two or three aspects of it. So yes, it is, um, I don't like to use the word too often because I, I see it everywhere, unprecedented, but this is something we haven't seen before. So even at the height of the internet fiber buildout, we were talking about a hundred-ish billion dollars a year, which in today's dollars equates to a little less than 200 billion, let's say, right? And now you're just saying the big four, the the mama, as I'd like to call them, the Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon, they alone have committed to about 700 billion this year. And projections by analysts and so forth say it might be close to a trillion next year. Now, you peel that apart a little bit, and so as of this point, there is a demand for the service that they're not yet able to fulfill. It enhances the frenzied buildout of data centers, uh, and and stuffing them with GPUs and so on and so forth. So the age-old question is, fine, if you build all of this, will, will it, will they come, right? Will the business come? And so that is a question that they are dealing with, and you see all of the arguments on both sides. On the one hand, there are folks who would say, look, there are backlogs, and just between, um, Amazon, Meta, Amazon, Google, and, um, and Microsoft and Oracle, they have a, a backlog of about two trillion. So you say, wow, okay, so they've already got commitments for what they're doing, so it doesn't feel as quite as risky. But about half of that is two companies.

>> Exactly.

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to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to 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two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to 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to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to 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to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two 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to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to 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to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to 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to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two 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to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two 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to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to 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two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two 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two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to 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to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to2 to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two 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Hard for them to catch up because the West is also advancing, right? It's not as if things are standing still, right? So, the West is also advancing. But I think it's really important to note that a lot of the advances are not purely semiconductor-based. I mean, there is a lot that's on top of that, right? Whether it's the hardware subsystems and how you connect all of them together, the software, and all of that. So, there's lots of other elements.

Look, China is a formidable competitor to the US, period, right? I don't think that changes. Is this forcing them to be more innovative and practical and stuff? Yes. Will they entirely catch up? I think it's still quite difficult.

>> Right. But just on your point that developments are critical beyond the integrated circuit level, it's the whole issue around packaging, which is now science fiction territory. Packaging itself is so sophisticated, though.

>> Well, it's packaging, then it's how do you connect the different chips in a system at the fastest speed, because, you know, that's optical networking and photonics and all of that, and so forth. So, it's lots of stuff, and that's just at the system level. Then it's the programming architecture that sits on top of it, and then it's all the things that DeepSeek, for example, did, which has nothing to do with hardware. No, right? It is purely in software. So, there are lots of places you can innovate. So, I don't think that we should for a minute think that just because they don't have the most powerful CPUs, the end outcome they're able to get will be severely restricted.

>> I mean, some of this stuff is just so frontier. Ravi, one of the things that I saw in Shanghai: there was this lady presenting. She was from Japan, but works for a Cambridge University-based company, and it was a very sort of frontier level of thinking on silicon photonics. So, the electron age is almost over; you can't really push many more electrons through those ICs. So, what about light? And what are the challenges around that? And what are the solutions around that? All the Chinese in the conference were furiously taking their own notes. It was absolutely fascinating.

Since we talked about China, let's talk a little bit about the region to some extent.

>> North Asia, we've talked a lot about Korea, but there's also Japan and Taiwan in that mix. Characterize for us, you know, where they stand in this tech wave right now. They're essential to all of what we're seeing happening, right? And essential in, well, we know how important this region is: North Asia, but also Southeast Asia, in particular, in terms of the supply chain for everything, like all of those hardware things that you're talking about. And Tamar, you do this for a living; you look at these economies, and they're all benefiting from the high demand for the electronics that they are making, right? And that has been an important part, I think, right? As you look at how well they have fared in the days since Liberation Day, I think you believe that this has been actually one of the elements, right? It's held up quite well.

>> So, it's a critically important supply chain. But if you go beyond that, between what TSMC does in Taiwan—and it's not just the chip side, packaging is also very advanced in Taiwan—and what the Koreans have in terms of the lock on some of the most memory and so forth, you know, the frontier in semiconductors has typically, traditionally been three companies: TSMC, Intel, and Samsung, right? So, Samsung is right up there with them. But then there are many companies in Japan, and you've heard of the bigger ones like Tokyo Electron and so forth, but many smaller ones as well, which play crucial roles across the semiconductor value chain, right? Whether it's in equipment or it's in the materials, right? Gases and chemicals, and so on and so forth, highly specialized, not too many alternatives at all. So, I think it's been the wave, if you will; time has been good for many of these companies and businesses, right? I mean, again, we've got,

>> until recently, America had the sole, was the sole domain of trillion-dollar companies, right?

>> Not anymore.

>> Not anymore.

>> And guess what? The first two outside of them were in Asia, not in Europe, absolutely.

>> Right. So, it's been a central cog in that whole semiconductor ecosystem. So, it's not just the manufacturing, but it's also the technology and the product know-how and knowledge and the R&D, and so forth. All of that has been crucial. So, I think if you look at these supply chains, they don't relocate very easily, but they don't relocate very easily because you're making typically very long-term decisions. And so, tariffs, you know, changing this way or that way, it's hard to kind of change in a jiffy. And ultimately, the cost will be borne somewhere, but ultimately the end-user, I suppose, but cost will be borne somewhere. And also, many of these places have ecosystems that you need for all of this, right? Malaysia, over the years, has built a very nice ecosystem in Penang across all of the electronics supply chain, and it's just very hard to replicate that somewhere else. So, I think it's here, and it's here to stay, and it's a, you know, it's a nice time to benefit from all of those, that hard work and investment over many, many decades.

>> By all means, Ravi. And it's not just since the reciprocal tariff days. We've had this new shock in the last three months with the Iran war, and when the war began, the view was that we were going to have a massive supply shock that's going to hurt economic growth and overall policy stability in this region. We have done pretty well in the last three, four months, and the key driver, in my view, is the fact that the tech wave is keeping the exports engine humming. Yeah.

>> Um, Ravi, what about the Singapore, Vietnams of the world? We're not necessarily manufacturing 3-nanometer chips, but we are a pretty important part of the supply chain. And what's your sense of the prospect for the Malaysia, Singapores, and Vietnams, which are not at the frontier like the Korea, Taiwans are, but still seem pretty relevant?

>> Look, I think you need all of them, all of the above. I think, to some extent, maybe some of the profit concentration is a little bit more in the leading edges because, again, capacity constraints, right? TSMC's 7-nanometer and below is the most capacity-constrained part of fabs right now, and so, of course, they're realizing a premium from that because of that. But the importance of all of the other elements doesn't go away at all. You need all of these to come together. And Singapore has some pretty, I mean, between Micron and GlobalFoundries and Infineon, it's got quite a bit of its own.

And Malaysia, you know, Malaysia has a lot of packaging, which, as you pointed out,

>> is actually emerging. And packaging used to be a sleepy afterthought in semiconductors, right? It was all in the chips, right? It was, you know, 'real men own fabs,' right? I mean, everybody else did packaging or whatever else. Not anymore, right? A lot of high-bandwidth memory and stuff is more about packaging technology than it is about the wafer or the chip itself. So, Malaysia has a lot of capabilities in that area. You know, and Thailand, for example, is one of the largest centers for production of hard drives.

>> Yes.

>> And, you know, that's a very, very big industry; that sector is doing really well. So, I don't think it's fundamentally just about the leading edge or not. I think you hear a lot more about the leading edge because that's where the attention gets naturally focused, and to some extent, in a supply-demand situation as we're now, the profits are accruing a little bit more disproportionately to that segment.

>> Right. One country that is not part of this wave, but certainly has the aspiration to do so, is India.

>> Over the last five years, it has given billions of dollars of production-linked incentives. You hear large Indian conglomerates announcing plans to build fabs and so on. What's your sense of India's outlook?

>> It's hard to answer in an aggregate sense. And what I mean is, if you peel that apart, there are at least three big segments, right? There are the fabs, right? Making the chips themselves. There's all of the assembly and tests and so forth, right? The packaging, as we've talked about. And then there's electronics assembly, right? Which is, as you know, what the Foxconns and of the,

>> iPhone being made in India, being made in India, and so forth. And while all of them seem similar, the dynamics are quite different. So, I think if you work from the bottom up, for the electronics manufacturing, India is actually, or India should be, a very good alternative to China and Vietnams, right? Because, unlike every country other than China, it also has a huge domestic market, right? Which is salivating for many of the manufacturers, right? Of the device makers. So, it actually has a large market as well, and so you would, and the technologies needed for that are not quite as sophisticated or leading-edge or scarce, right? And so, I think now, in iPhones, for example, India has got quite a lot of Apple's global capacity now, right? And I think that makes sense, and I'm a little disappointed we don't see more of that, right? You would think that there's more of that, as you know, a lot of that has still been concentrated in Tamil Nadu, and in that part of India, right? And Karnataka, neighboring, right? But you would see more of that.

I think if you go at the other end, fabs,

>> I'm a little less clear on whether India has a great long-term play. Now, it may still be a good thing to say, 'Look, as you know, post-COVID, there was this whole strategic kind of rebalancing that both companies sought to do and countries sought to do,' right? It's like, 'If I don't have anything, then I'm going to be a little bit left in the cold when disruptions happen,' right?

>> Even if that means redundant supply chain.

>> Even if that means redundant or not entirely the lowest cost or the best economics, and so forth, yes, right? And I think companies have also come around to that view that, 'Yeah, China may be the lowest cost, but I cannot put everything in China because I need some resilience in my network.' And so, when I look at the fab side of things, I'm a little perplexed because I see why they would want to have some and so forth. But the leading-edge technology is incredibly hard to get. Very few people have it, right? And, you know, TSMC is already committed to building the America production facilities. Japan, they've had dialogue in Europe; I don't know where that went, and so forth. Samsung is building something in the US. And the US is such a large market. So, naturally, they're going to want to put something in the US, especially with the more tariff orientation of the administration that we're seeing now. And so, India cannot get that part.

When you look at the lagging, at the outside of the leading edge, China is putting up a lot of capacity in that area. And, you know, when China makes an economic policy to do something, they get it done, right? I mean, whether that's solar or batteries or EVs or what have you, right? They'll do it. And human robotics is the next frontier, and one of the next frontiers. And so, China's putting up a lot of capacity and has been doing so for years. So, they're very well down that learning curve compared to India. And the last is, fabs take a lot of investment, but a lot of that investment is equipment which comes from somewhere else.

>> Correct.

>> It's not necessarily buying local stuff, and they don't employ that many people. So, I find that a little perplexing, right? Other than maybe for security and strategic reasons, maybe. I don't know that. I think assembly and test is more interesting because it does favor having a large, educated, productive workforce. And the technology, yes, still, again, the leading edge of packaging is getting somewhere, but, you know, a lot of semiconductor chips don't require the leading-edge packaging. So, I think that seems more interesting to me. So, if I had to peel apart your question, I'd say the assembly absolutely should be doing much more. The testing and packaging, certainly, I see the opportunity to do more. Fabs, I'm a little less clear where it can go, given the dynamics of that market.

>> So, the Indian stock market has been under pressure the last few years, and one of the sectors of the board which I see that has underperformed pretty badly the last six months, in particular, is the software giants of India, the services,

>> and so on. Is your assessment that the whole AI LLM revolution is really going to disintermediate the whole outsourcing industry?

>> So, I'll set aside the stock market performance; that's not my area of expertise, I won't claim it to be. Look, as you know, as you rightly pointed out, the IT services has been under pressure for some time, right? After that post-COVID kind of spurt,

>> Correct.

>> it's been low growth, and margins under pressure for probably two, three years before all of this AI thing really perked up. So, this is coming on top of what has already been, I think, a little bit of a tougher time for them. So, viewed one way, you can see the compressing effect of AI, a little bit like software that we talked about a bit earlier, which is that previously if I said, 'Look, to essentially update that application and make it conform to new regulations would be, you know, 10 engineers of this seniority for four months.' Now, again, all using cloud code or Codex and so forth, is it what, five engineers for two months? Like, what is it, right? There's certainly some compression effect. So, like for like, you're saying, 'Do I need the same number?' You know, and in a time-and-material classic time-and-material business, you go, 'I probably don't.' So, you can see the compressing effect of that.

And you also see some of the, again, will customers choose to do a little bit more on their own versus rely on the IT outsourcers? There's an interesting element here, which is it has become more strategic to many more companies than it ever used to be, which is also pushing the 'should I be doing more of this myself versus should I outsource?' right? If it starts to become central to your business, should you be doing more of it yourself versus outsource it, right? And I think that's reflected a bit in the number of GCCs, the Global Capability Centers, you're seeing, and India has cornered a huge share of that very nicely. And that is essentially saying, 'Yes, I need to do it in a lower-cost location for economics and other,'

>> That happens with outsourcing. Yes.

>> 'Yeah, but I need it to be inside my four walls because it's actually important for my business. This is not a less strategic, you know, where I'm settling for best cost versus best capability and, you know, whatever.' So, I think that is one part of it, and the GCCs will, I think, continue to do well for India, right? But the listed IT services players, you go, 'So that's what they're facing,' right? Is, one, you cannot expect the same pricing for what you used to do, and two, you have this thing about GCCs as well.

But I think if you look at the other side, almost every business, I would argue these days, is either a tech business or a tech-enabled business.

>> Like, I mean, a bank, like technology is the center of it, right? There's not much left.

>> Yeah.

>> Right. If you can't get the technology to work, yes, you have to manage risk, and you have to manage, you know, many more things. I'm simplifying whether it's a bank or an insurance company or a logistics provider or a film production studio, whatever. Technology is at the center of it. And we were talking about AI. Experimenting with AI is easy. Piloting AI is a little harder. Rolling it out at scale and transforming the way you do business, which means you've got to transform how the work gets done, the workflow; you have to transform how the people do it, the workforce; and then you have to transform the technology and data underpinnings, which they're both going to rely on, which both of those are going to rely on. That's quite hard. There's a lot of work involved in getting that, and that's why not that many companies still have fully scaled AI. And that's the challenge that many are facing in the US as well, not just outside the US, and maybe even more so outside, but that's a challenge many are facing, and so they need more help. So, in some ways, you would say all of this means they need more help of the kind that these IT companies provide, right? And so, you're seeing the immediate demand. I mean, I go to any client, it's like, 'Okay, we need to do all of this stuff with our data architecture; it is completely not what is needed.' Or, 'We grew through six acquisitions, and we have six ERP systems, and, you know, they don't talk to each other.' Or, you know, you take the example, like a lot of mainframes still run COBOL code, whether that's airlines, that's utilities, that's banks, that's insurance companies, all run COBOL code, but it's been phenomenally expensive and risky to change that, right?

>> Now you have tools that make it much easier. Doesn't take away the risk. Doesn't take away, I mean, it takes away some of the effort, at least makes it more possible. Again, great, you know, this was the Y2K, or, you know, going back to the Y2K.

>> I remember that, right? Yes.

>> So, there is probably more, there's a lot of work to be done, again, like that software example I gave.

>> But what the IT companies have to reckon with is, in order to do all this, I need to change my business model. I need to be able to price on an outcome as opposed to time and material. Time and material is not going to work in my favor as much, right? That also means that I need to have a different set of skills in my team, right? Using a code generator to rewrite the COBOL, then how do you validate it? How do you test it? How do you rebuild the test suite? All of that, different set of skills and a different talent and a people pyramid and all of that. So, it's a very different company in some ways, right? Even if the core proposition is somewhat the same, it's a very different company.

>> Right? So, Ravi, that really is my hope that if, indeed, there's going to be a full-bodied embracing of AI-related capabilities, the transition would actually enhance employment, and down the road, it would be capital-augmenting, labor-augmenting, and maybe labor-replacing as well. But hopefully, that transition period gives us some time to think about what are the other areas people can gain fully employed.

Ravi, you were there last week. I was in Washington D.C. in April, and D.C. is a very political town. You bring up a lot of political vibe. One thing that I picked up was that there's a bit of an AI backlash taking place. Not just the Bernie Sanders of the world demanding that there is some equity from AI to be shared by the population, but 'not in my backyard' for data centers. I saw Virginia, while I was there, passing legislation where local bodies would have far more say whether data centers can be built in the backyard or not. So, could 2026 also be the year of AI backlash?

>> It's interesting because it has certainly become a political wedge issue, right? And, interestingly, more so at the local and state level, if you will, than at the federal level, right? At the federal level, it all seems, you know, 'all systems go,' but at the local and state level, I think it's become... And, you know, if I could digress for a moment, as I said, I was in California last week, and in some ways, there's lots of excitement, but I'm seeing anxiety much more than I maybe have not been as observant, but I'm certainly seeing it, and it's more palpable than it has been in the past. And so, I kind of started trying to think about it and talk to a few people. Now, look, this is all anecdotal; I was there for three days, so, you know, how many people did I meet? But there's a lot of anxiety, I think, and the anxiety, it's very interesting. Look, you're talking about the one place on Earth which is the biggest beneficiary from all of this, right? Where the greatest amount of wealth creation is happening, right? Because of AI, like, I don't know, an order of magnitude, maybe even two orders of magnitude, who knows, like, a lot, right? And yet, you see so much palpable anxiety. And so, I was like, 'What is this?' And I think it's three things.

It's one thing that we talked about earlier: the velocity. I don't know if you feel it, Tamar, I suddenly feel everything has sped up.

>> Yes.

>> Right. Keeping up is harder and harder and harder, even with all the tools that I use and that you, I'm sure, use as well to synthesize and this, that, and the other. It is harder, and I think change is coming at people at a pace that they are struggling to process. Like, we're all human; we only take change so much, and, you know, with so much grace, and then it's just... And I think it's just been coming and coming and coming, right? You look at what these models can do; every three months, they come out with a new one. First of all, it used to be six, then it became four months, and, you know, whatever. But they're dramatically better than what preceded it.

>> Yes.

>> Right. So, the time between has shrunk, and the capability leap has been even greater. So, one, I think it's too much coming at it.

>> Second, and tech may be the leading edge of this, there's just a lot more anxiety about job security.

>> Yes.

>> Right. Because what you're seeing is the biggest companies that used to be very stable and the most successful companies making lots of money still letting go of people and saying, 'You know, I have to find ways to fund my AI investment,' or, 'Because of AI, these things are no longer a priority,' or whatever it is that they're saying. But I think it's dented sort of the notion that if you're working for a big, successful company, and look, I cannot, in any scenario, Tamar, think that the Googles and the Amazons and the Microsofts will not be a winner in AI,

>> Right.

>> And still, they may be leaner companies.

>> And still, they may be leaner companies, at least that's the direction at this point that we're seeing. So, I think it's shaken people's confidence, right? I think that's a second source of anxiety.

And the third one, which is very interesting when I talk to people, it's because things are moving so fast, you're making decisions and choices, and you have no confidence that they are the right decisions and choices, right? You think about someone, for example, who came out of Berkeley, which is where I went to as well, and, you know, four years ago, and you had this, you know, pre-November 2022, let's say, right? Four years ago, and you had this small, unproven company called Anthropic making an offer, and a Salesforce or an Oracle making you an offer, you would be reasonable to say, 'Look, I think I'm more leaning towards that.' And roll forward the clock four years later, what a dramatic difference that's made.

>> Yes.

>> So, I think people are like, even now, saying, 'I'm making these choices, but I have no idea how these are going to play out.' And I think that's very legitimate, and that's very stressful.

>> Right? And, Ravi, I guess this is where the public sector's role comes in: that while companies may be bewildered, maybe in hindsight make the right or the wrong decision, but that anxiety has to be addressed head-on by the policymakers.

>> Correct.

>> Because, like you said, it is a bit of a unique moment, and that anxiety can manifest in all sorts of ways. I mean, it could be a big Luddite-esque movement where we reject all AI. Correct. And that'll set us back, or there could be some serious social instability.

>> Yeah, you're right. And to the point you were making, Tamar, around the political, maybe this November election could be swayed as much by some of these factors as by the cost of gasoline and, you know, whatever else.

>> I fully agree. We have talked about the promise of technology and, of course, the here and the now. I think, you know, there's decent data, decent evidence that it is tantalizing and it's exciting. But there's also a lot of frontier stuff being discussed all the time. Mr. Musk is talking about data centers in space and colonies and Mars and that sort of stuff. So, what's your sense about this super frontier stuff that is also being priced in for the next round of IPOs or the next round of fundraising?

>> Look, that's what makes tech so exciting, right? Some of this is, as you said, tantalizing; it may never evolve, I mean, may never come to fruition, and some of that might, and, you know, it'll be very different, and so forth. I mean, look, think about it, though, Tamar. I mean, I'd heard of OpenAI, you know, going back seven, eight years, right? But I was hardly prepared for what they came out with, you know, when ChatGPT launched, right? Again, you'd heard that AGI and all of that stuff, and so forth, but it all felt like maybe it's somewhere out there, right? And then suddenly they launch something, and it changes the world as we know it in some ways. So, look, I think that dreaming is absolutely part of it.

I would say some aspects of these, so take quantum, right? Which is an area, there is, I think, a lot of excitement. IBM's making advancements, Google's making advancements; everybody's trying to go after the same thing, which is, 'Can I get more and more qubits without increasing the error rate?' Right? That's the holy grail, or that's what we're pursuing.

>> Different estimates as to how long it'll be before we see commercial systems, and so forth. Fine. But as of now, we think that will probably dramatically change cryptography, right? That we know. Probably dramatically change drug discovery, and probably change a few other things. I think there are some interesting applications in portfolio allocation and stuff like that in fund management. But in those domains, it's probably going to be disruptive and transformative, but not as broadly so, at least in the early days, right? So, that may take a while, unlike what we're seeing now, which, even in its early days, has been quite disruptive in a wide range of areas, right? Not just in a narrow sense. So, I think we have to, when you take all of these, you go, 'Which ones are going to be truly world-changing, and which ones are important advancements?'

So, data centers in space is a good example. You can see the logic, right? Power, here on planet Earth, is increasingly hard to get. And if you imagine a future where we're using more and more AI for everything, maybe the power needs just balloon to a point that we cannot do it well. Also, you know, limiting fossil fuels and this, that, and the other. And this could be a neat solution for that. But it's, I mean, it's strewn with hurdles, right? I mean, getting the stuff up there, dealing with the latency and lag effects that you have when something is in space. Lots of, you know, whether components that work on Earth don't necessarily are not necessarily going to work quite the same way there. You know, you have all of these things to, you know, how much space debris will we be causing? Like, there are lots of considerations. And so, that one I put in the category of, 'It's possible that, you know, when it is proven, and, you know, as in proven as a technology and proven to be commercially viable as an option, that if the world does get to a point where we can't do it anymore on the planet Earth, then it that may be a lifesaver at that point in time.' But I think it's really hard to say that that is, at this point, that is going to be one at this point in time. So, you have this whole range of things that people dream of, but that's the fun part, though.

>> Yes, and I really appreciate your sort of distinction between the general-purpose nature of some of these technologies and the specific nature and the narrower disruption that they may have. Ravi, what a tour de force of a conversation! Thank you so much.

>> No, thank you. It's been a pleasure. And, Tamar, thank you. I've always learned a lot when we talk, so this has been great for me as well. Thank you.

>> Benefits entirely mine, and thanks to our listeners as well. Kobi Time was produced by Ken Delbridge at Sply Studios. Violet Lee and Daisy Sharma provided additional assistance. Kobi Time is for information only and does not constitute any investment advice. All 180 episodes of this podcast are available on YouTube and on all major podcast platforms, including Apple and Spotify. As for our research content and webinars, you can find them all by Googling 'DBS research library.' Have a great day.