Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin simulation confirmed.
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For the last month or so, ever since Bitcoin got that capitulation into February, what we said was that Bitcoin would likely find a low in February, and then it would likely stay weak through February, and then get a rally in the first week of March. And that rally in the first week of March would in fact get rejected and to fade the first week rally of March. And just a few days ago, we got the rally, and I put out this video. We really do live in a simulation. You can see that Bitcoin was at 73.5K. And in that video, it was hard to go against the permabulls that call me out every day on Twitter. And every single one of them came out and sort of dunked, and it ended up being a lower high.
Now, what's fascinating is that we were looking at this thing a month ago, right? It was about a month ago. We looked at, and we, we, the thing that's so crazy about this is how simple it is. How simple this thing has been. We look at 2026. We don't try to overcomplicate things by talking about the ISM, talking about Jane Street, whatever the narrative is for the week. We don't care about any of that stuff. It's irrelevant. The news cycle is irrelevant in this because despite all the crazy stuff you see happening, Bitcoin is still following the average return in prior midterm years. Look at this. Look how it dropped into February, didn't go anywhere, got the rally into early March, and then sold off, just like the average of all prior midterm years for Bitcoin. All of them, three of them, right? It's just fascinating how you can just sit around and basically be like, "All right, low in February, early rally, early rally in March, fade it, not going anywhere."
Now, what's interesting is if you compare 2026 to 2014, look at that very similar move. Rally early up, capitulate, rally into early March, go sideways for a bit, and then drop into April. That's the 2014 comparison. Look at 2018. 2018, we bottomed around the same time. Just in 2018, it was a, it was a larger drop. And the reason why it was a larger drop, you said it, because back then we topped on euphoria. This time we topped on apathy. Therefore, the drop wasn't as big. But you see that find a low, sort of rally, put in that local top, head down. Now look at 2022. This one's a little different. The rally extended through late March, but it was only more or less a sweep of the early March high. It didn't really go anywhere.
Now you average them out, and you get this. You add one standard deviation onto that, and you get that. And you can see that despite the narratives, despite the ISM, despite the macro, despite even the price of oil and the labor market data, despite all of it, Bitcoin is doing what it always does in midterm years. And it just, it drives people crazy. I think, I think it does. And look, guys, I don't control this stuff, right? I'm just over here pointing out what I think looks reasonable, and it just keeps on happening. Keeps on happening. It just keeps on playing out the same way that it always does. And I'm not here to say that it always will. I, you know, I've talked to a lot of people, and a lot of people are like, "Well, why does the four-year cycle have to exist? You know, just because everyone thinks it will." Will it eventually break? Probably. Do I expect that for the next 50 years, Bitcoin will behave on a perfectly predictable four-year cycle? No. But the problem is that I think you'll get wrecked more frequently, a lot more, if you assume it will end. Not to say that it won't end. It's just that how many times will it take thinking it's going to end before it actually does? So, the problem is that people that keep thinking it's going to end, it keeps not. They get wrecked thinking it's, it's going to do something different. It doesn't. The people that keep betting on the four-year cycle keep winning. Eventually, betting on the four-year cycle will probably be a losing bet. But maybe it's just worth that, right? Maybe it's just worth that idea of betting on it until it doesn't work. And then when it doesn't work, maybe I'll get wrecked. What's the count? What's the alternative? You know, just thinking it's going to change every cycle just because we want it to, or just going with what history shows us until proven otherwise. And then when otherwise is proven, then we adjust. You adjust when the market tells you there's a reason to. There's not really a reason to adjust that if the market just keeps doing the same thing it always does, right? So, I mean, I'm not saying this whole thing has to play out till the very end. Uh, but for now, this seems like a pretty reasonable assumption of how things are going to go in the short term. So, let's see where it goes.
I mean, this wick here, you know what this looks like to me? You see that wick higher? You know what it looks like? Looks a lot like 2014. You guys remember what happened in 2014 in March? Same thing. Early week, early rally in March, Bitcoin went sideways for a week, then started to dump, and then it put in a lower low in April. You know what happened in 2018? Local high in March, and then it dumped into early April. 2022 was a little bit different, but it still started to dump as we got into April and May.
So, I hope this has been helpful because it, it is really difficult, you know, when you have a lot of people watching your stuff and and then you got all these guys, these toxic permabulls that that, you know, constantly dunk anytime. It's crazy because we talked about this rally, and then we got it, and people dunked anyways. So it is difficult, and and bare markets make fools of both bulls and bears. That's the reality of bare markets. That's what makes them so hard is even if you're a bear, you can be right, but it doesn't necessarily make the journey any less easier because a lot of times in bull markets, we go up, or in bare markets, we go up in the bare market for months before we get the next leg lower. As you can see back over here, that's what makes them so difficult is you just never really know, you know. Um, when that next leg down's going to occur and over how long it's going to take place. I just think that the name of the game in midterm years is wealth preservation. Preserve what you have so that you can live to fight another day in the markets when all this is over. And if you need a narrative for why this has to play out like this, and why we can't have a super cycle, and why the permabulls can't be right all the time, maybe oil. I mean, oil is spiking like crazy. And despite the weak labor market report we just got, Fed's not really that much closer to cutting rates. So, if you need a narrative, you can run with that one. But I, what if you don't need one? What if you don't need a narrative? What if, what if you just need this chart? I'd be willing to pivot if we go outside of this, these bounds, but I mean, what, why change anything, you know?
Now, over the macro scale, the permabulls make money. The bears sound smart, and the bulls make money, but the bears are right sometimes. And in crypto, they're usually right about every four years. And this is that year where they're right. Starting in the fourth quarter of the post-halving year, and usually going for about a year or so. So if you are a bear, it's also important to remember that eventually we'll probably leave the bare market and enter another bull market. But as I said last month, February is a little premature to call for that, right? You don't, I don't think if you call for the bull market to start in February that you'll likely have that work out because there's, there's usually lows put in in February, but historically they're not the low, if that makes sense.
So, simulation confirmed, right? Spend a few weeks saying we're going to have a rally in early March and to fade it, and then it plays out. And you know, if it plays out like it normally does on average, then Bitcoin might not really go anywhere for a few days. It might be kind of like, "What's going on?" Like, and if you look at it on, on, um, here on the daily, you can kind of see that it just, it, it gave back all these gains, right? And, and it just went back to where it, it sort of launched that little rally from, right back down there. So, it might bounce here for a little bit, you know, it might do something like this, but ultimately I think it probably will break down as, as time goes on. And, um, it's not like I want to bring this message to you, but you're not here to hear me tell you what I, you're not here to hear me say what you want to happen. You're here probably for me to tell you what I think's going to happen so that you can use that to, to at least think about the market in a different way. I don't know. And I don't know if I'm right. I don't know if I'm right, but this is what I think is going to happen. I think the market will go lower as the year goes on. And I, I think that it's easy to label anyone that's bearish just an outright doomer. Uh, but remember, I mean, the, the bulls have been wrong since October. And while the bears sound smart and the bulls make money, once every four years or so, the bears are right.
So, we'll wrap it up there. Thank you guys for tuning in. Subscribe, give the video a thumbs up, and check out ITC Premium at thecryptoverse.com. You can also check out my new website at benjaminc.com. I'll see you guys next time. Bye.