Transcription
Hey folks, welcome to verified investing.com. My name is Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist here.
Now, in today's video, we're going to deep dive into the cycle analysis on gold, looking at past cycles and how or if they resemble the current cycle. The idea is is history tends to maybe not repeat, but it generally will rhyme. And I did some research and ultimately this bull cycle that we've seen on gold is very similar to what happened in the 1980 peak versus the 2011 peak. And I want to go back to the 1980s and look at what it tells us about the next move in gold. Will we see a resurgence to the upside and a breakout here? Or will we still head down a little bit more before that bottom is in?
Before we get to that, folks, just a reminder, Gareth's Top Squad here on YouTube. This is my YouTube premium. It's $9.99 a month, so super cheap. And the idea is every weekend I give you a big discount code for something on verified investing. So essentially, it pays for itself x amount over times. Uh if you just use one code, even a month or or even a quarter, frankly, for some things, you basically make up that and more in the cost. And then also it comes with premium videos, at least one a week that I do for members and they're usually even more indepth going into more unique educational information on something in particular that I found in the charts. Sometimes they're even trade setups that I am getting into myself. So you can join that just by going to my main YouTube page, Gareth Soloway Protrader, and clicking on the join button or I'll put the link in the description.
But let's get into it here, guys. So, first and foremost, let's take a look at where gold sits. Gold again has kind of been struggling. We've come down significantly off the highs recently from the high in late January. Currently, gold is down about 28%. Now, the first thing I look at and I say to myself, okay, so we had a pivot high, pivot low, lower high, lower low, lower high, and lower lows here. But it does look like there's some sort of basing going on here, right? We're getting to a level where there's a lot of technical support historically. And so essentially what I want to do here is I want to look at this and I want to say, okay, in this gold chart, how similar is it to one of the past cycles? And so to do that, what we're going to do is we're going to split screen this, right? And we're essentially going to put both golds on both charts. So over here we have gold and over here we have gold as well. And to do that, we're going to flip this over to the weekly. Um, check that. We're going to go to this one and do the weekly. We'll keep this on on the daily. And I'll tell you why.
So, one thing I found is that the gold cycles are shortening. And I'm going to be releasing, I'm hoping today, but at least by Friday, this institutional gold report. And in the gold report, I talk about when the next peak on gold will be at what price it's going to be, which is again, you guys know I'm a long-term bull, but there's specific reasons. I'm not just arbitrarily a long-term bull. Um, and I reveal every nuance in this gold report. Inclusive is a gold calculator that I created that lets you put in your numbers and project out where gold is likely to be and when that peak, that next peak will happen. But suffice it to say, in the gold report, I've discovered that the cycles are shortening. Now, the cycles are shortening for multiple reasons. A lot of it has to do with the increase, the exponential increase in US debt, the overall fiat currencies being printed much, much quicker than they were in past cycles. But that's why essentially we're going to look at the daily chart in current times and compare it to the weekly going back. It'll give us a better view of more apples to apples in terms of timing.
All right. So here we have on this side we have the daily chart of gold, right? And we have the gold peak and everything that went on. And over here we're going to go back to the bull market of to 1980, right? Essentially the peak in 1980. We got to go way way back here for that. And we're getting close here. We're getting close. There it is right here. Now, the first thing that we want to look at is essentially mirroring the the bull runs. And I find this absolutely like legit, guys. This stuff that I show you is the stuff that makes me giddy inside. And it's it's just so freaking cool. Um, and again, maybe you don't feel the same way about me where this stuff excites you, but it it is it is remarkable. And so, let's look at this. So, just a few little tidbits. So, number one, look at this right here. This little pattern up, down, like there before the move. And then look over here. What did we have? Up, down, up, like that just before it began. Is that not wild? Like that is incredible. Up, down, up here, and then the bull run began. Up, down, up, and the bull run began. All right. And again, to be honest, that's just that's just something cool, right? I mean, it's just like, what the heck? That's amazing.
Now, look at this. We have the bull run begins. We go up and we have a check back. And then we get our parabolic blowoff top all the way to the upside. We go up, we check back, and we get our parabolic move all the way to the upside. I mean, again, you you couldn't ping this better. It's incredible. Now, what I'm curious about is you can see big draw down, bounce, draw down, bounce, draw down, bounce, etc. Now, what we're looking at here, folks, is that you can actually So, remember the trend lines that I've had in for you guys, right? So, let's zoom in here. And I I have this trend line, right? We have this trend line here and essentially we have this trend line going through this. So we're in this wedge pattern if you will and you can see that formation. Well, look at this. Back in 1980 at the peak, you take this down and look at what you get. You get that almost identical wedge pattern formation. And we could do it right from here and it goes down into this range. And again, what's so cool about this too is you can see this little peak here. It actually touches or kisses the peak, but it's actually not that far away from it either way. But isn't that a remarkable? So look, so the pattern formations are generally the same. I mean, there's obviously small variations, which is why we say history doesn't repeat to a T. It generally rhymes. But this is really dang good rhyming in my humble opinion.
Now, what we want to see is, well, what happened here? Because this is intriguing to me because essentially you can see that we kind of came down here and then we pushed up and we broke out but then we retraced along that line. And if we look at this, what does this tell us? If we extend these lines out, right? It tells us that gold actually could be doing exactly that. We could be ready to break out, but then it could hop along this line coming down before it starts to make its bigger move, which is what it did here, right? If you move this up and then it kind of hopped along, it actually made a lower low. So, it kind of faked people out. Do you see what happened there? You essentially broke out, which is going to get a lot of people bullish on gold, but then it kind of did this like grind down and then it started to make its move back to the upside. Now, it wasn't just easy going from there, right? You did have a big rally and then it kind of came back and retested. You can see over time it kind of fell back into that same level. But the point is is that this would make a lot of sense for us to come out here, hover here, and come down and then finally make our bigger bottom in and move up. Now, it won't be a straight shot. And I want to be clear on this. I'll give you a little peek into this, but basically in the gold research institutional research report, and this is, by the way, this is a hardcore research report. Generally, this would be something that you'd sell to the institutions for like a million bucks or more. Like someone would can would um, you know, Goldman Sachs would come or Black Rockck and say, "Hey, can you do a research report?" And I'm not giving it to any institutions. They have full access on our website if they are a member. Um, and when I say member, you just have to have an account. You don't have to be a paying subscriber, but there's no like my whole philosophy is everyone should be on the same playing field, right? That's just that's just the way it should be in life, unfortunately, in the markets, especially these days, but really forever. But especially these days, that's not how it's been. It's been that the elites have insider information. They act on it. They make hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars. But if I can do my little part of helping out, I'm going to do it. It's just it's the right thing to do. And you know, I always look at it like when I'm on my deathbed, can I look and say that I did the right things in life generally. And and I think if if society and all of us as a whole looked at life that way, things would be a lot better in the world. And I don't mean to get off on a tangent, guys, but I I think you guys get my point in that.
So again, remarkable similarities here, guys. like absolutely remarkable. But you can see what's happening here. I mean again maybe we come down here but at some point we're going to break out then hover and then we get our move up. Allah this pattern as well. And it's really remarkable remember because look down move up move down move up move down move up move down move up move and then we kind of just trible dribbled bound down here. But again, it shows us where gold can likely go. Now, in the cycle report, in the institutional cycle report, guys, I'll give you a little upside action. The peak, not when we're going to hit the next all-time high because I think that will happen a lot sooner, but the peak I have pinpointed between uh 2029 and 2031. And according to the metrics that I have, it should be around 13,000. So, again, you know, I've talked about maybe us getting to 3500. I think anything below 3,900 or around 3900 is is an accumulation zone. And we've basically come to that and you guys know I was bearish when we were north of 5,000 and said guys this is going to correct and it's it's done exactly what that 1980 cycle is.
Now the difference and one of the keys here from 1980 is you had Vulkar. You don't have Vulkar anymore. You can't have Vulkar. It's literally and in the research report I I divulged this. You you literally Vulkar cannot exist because if if we had someone that raised interest rates to 15 to 20% the economy would go into a depression of epic proportions. You can't do it with the US debt. You guys know this. You guys I I have some of the smartest watchers out there. And it literally with the US debt and the interest payments, could you imagine interest rates at 15 20%. The country would be bankrupt in a year or two. That's how bad it is. So you can't have that. Which is another reason why we had this massive distance between 1980 and the 2011 peak. And then we had a shorter distance between the 2011 2026 peak. And it explains why the next peak in gold, the next cycle is going to be a lot shorter, which for if you're like a gold bull like me, that's a great thing. Now, it's not a good thing for the country or the world because it's telling us something about what's going on. I digress. You guys get the picture. Please comment on this video. Let me know what you guys think. But it is fascinating stuff to think about. And again, I'll keep you guys in the loop. Thank you so much for your time, your comments, your likes, your shares, sharing it with friends. I'll have a great one. You have a great one. I'll talk to you soon. Take care.