Transcription
Are we about to see another boom in precious metals? Over the last couple of sessions, we've been talking about silver breakouts, copper movements to new highs, and of course, several other markets starting to show improvement, including oil. Over the last 24 hours, we got some gap ups and potential island reversals. So, what exactly is going on as Nvidia also starts to make some ground against many of the other semiconductors? And maybe more importantly than all of this, why did we just see extreme volatility on hardware stocks over the last 24 hours? As you guys know, everything is very important when it comes to the AI bubble, stocks, commodities, and cryptos. Let's take a look at everything underneath the hood to see where the Wall Street flows are still positive in direction. See you soon.
Well, welcome back everybody to one of the largest daily shows on the planet. Whether you love stocks, macro, commodities, or anything else, we cover it all here daily. So, make sure to subscribe and hit that bell icon. Over the last 24 hours, we've seen energy move up, which is showing signs of potential inflation into the CPI data, some concerns in hardware, and of course, more moves in semiconductors. But is there anything wrong underneath the hood? Well, let's begin by some of the big news stories. Then we'll go through some of the cart charts and of course the flows that are defining the last couple of sessions. And we'll start here with yes, housing actually. Is the AI boom starting to affect certain areas only of America? Well, according to the latest data, it looks like San Francisco is on an absolute tear with six or actually nine houses selling $2 million over the list price and countless others selling $1 million plus over the list price. And you might be thinking, "Oh, well, that's only going to happen on four, five, $6 million houses." There are some reports out there that are saying some $1.2 million houses are selling for $2 million just in terms of overall demand on these markets. Now, you might be asking yourself, what's this got to do with AI? Well, according to OpenAI, over 600 employees last year were able or former employees or employees were able to potentially sell their shares, and participating staff liquidated on average around $11 million per person. Now obviously that's going to be topheavy but still just goes to show there are a lot of gains being made in the San Fran area at the moment and it's actually leading into housing which is an interesting kind of cross-section of the markets because of course if you look at other areas in the US and around the world they're not maybe fairing so well and this is what they call the K-shaped economy kind of playing out in many ways.
Now let's take a look at volatility over the last 24 hours. We posted this over on our ex account if you want to follow in the links in the description down below. And basically it was that the Cosby, the South Korean index, very heavily dominated by hardware right now. Absolutely on its extreme tear. By the way, guys, highly encourage you to load a chart like this up and just have a look at it. Put it on a monthly chart and you'll be like, "Wo, what have I just seen? That is absolutely wild." And what just happened over the last 24 hours is we saw a 7% move. Now, the market recovered. It was off supposed information that DDR5 was being produced in China. And we see here that the drop occurred and then it quickly rallied back up as maybe it's not totally confirmed, but what this shows is the fragility of this market. Just like that, guys, things could get pretty wild. And remember, we did see a huge move on it, which I suspected was somebody in the no kind of going, you know what, this was a pretty damn good run. Remember, 20% off in just two sessions last time. So, this market, I expect it to be one of those ones that if you're watching it over 2026, you're probably going to see some pretty amazing crazy moves.
Now, let's talk about where we're at at the moment. Now, Ryan Dietrich over on X, give him a follow, guys, put out this interesting report here from Carson Research that basically shows that when we have eight 1% gains in a row, which we did, and this is all the way back from 1950 data, then generally speaking, we can have a bit of an up and down month. Only 53.8% 8% of the time are markets bullish over that period. Now, I just want to note here that there's actually quite a lot of often fragility in markets. Obviously, we've got that.com boom point, but markets do tend to either go sideways for a little while here or when they are moving up, it usually is more of a dull style approach. Now, you guys know that we're watching a 2hour indicator later on today's video that's very important and that is the moving average. But I did think this was some interesting data to bring to your attention.
Let's now take a look at another big point here. This one from Polycarp FX over on X. And basically you can show see here that the first time in a long time that semiconductors have been outperforming the SPY by so much. It only lines up with one other period and you guessed it. Yes, it is of course the one that everyone's talking about. There are a lot of similarities here, but just remember every single bubble or every single hardware run in anything, whether it was the train, whether it was electricity, whether it was the car, any of these new technologies generally has similarities, but they never end exactly the same way. For now, it's earnings, earnings, earnings. And you'll see why that's so important. But yes, we're in historic stuff here, guys. Seeing some amazing crazy runs that are now now starting to lead into where we've previously seen turns because of just so much outperformance by semiconductors. Just remember though the trend does continue until we actually see somebody say no that's it and then you see a bunch of liquidations.
Let's now have a look here at some other interesting signs. Now we've been talking about copper, we've been talking about silver and gold as all improving charts in recent days. And I think it's important to note it's been days only about a week a week ago we started to see these improvements. It was across metals. It was across of course copper here. And we also saw it in silver. And then all of a sudden boom goes the flow. So just goes to show why it's so important to see it in the charts more than the narratives. And I think that's very important here. Now I posted this over on our X account as well. We've had some big breakouts just recently with copper which we'll look at later in candlestick charts. And you'll notice here that in previous times where we've seen significant breakouts, it actually has led to a pretty significant repricing in copper. Will it be again? Interested to see your comments down below. But certainly an observation we're making. Another observation was our analysis on silver and gold. And one of the reasons was we saw what we call first time frame changes of trend. We saw breakouts only four or five sessions ago and then we saw the resistance closing above just 24 hours ago. And this has already led to price being repriced at $86, which is basically taking us close to that first little mini resistance. But of course, we have a second resistance, which we'll look at later on. But this is pretty amazing stuff. Silver just going wild. And of course, a lot of people now discussing it at this time.
We also have S&P and NASDAQ outside of their Ballinger. Now, we've already demonstrated in our previous video, if you're interested in watching that, why this is a fairly rare occurrence to have both outside the Ballinger and how this can slow markets down. But just remember, it's not an exact timing tool. It's just that generally speaking, in the previous times we've seen it over the last couple years, we get mean reversion, which is the 20 moving average. So, that's of course the middle of the Ballinger. So, you can go back, have a look, compare them, check it out in the chart. Certainly some little extracurricular stuff to do because I think it's always good if you visualize these things. We are very visual creatures.
To make matters even more technical, we've seen other big moves happening and a lot of you guys in the comment section obviously didn't like the Tesla analysis recently because you weren't that keen on the chart. Fair enough. But I guess goes to show that the narrative is not necessarily the flow. And what we saw was an incredibly downtrodden stock that had been sold off for a long time starting to change trend back in the back end of kind of April and now of course moving up and it entered into positive gamma just in the last session and typical depositive gamma and if you're not familiar with that basically just means options are offside and they need to be hedged out. Um what this is actually doing is it already moved to 450. I mean, wow. It was a huge move very, very quick. And again, it just goes to show here that uh technicals do play out in these markets. And again, if you miss semiconductors, which is all that everyone can talk about, there are always other things that are appearing in these markets. And that's that abundance mindset that we talk about in the channel.
Now, we are just 24 hours away from another CPI result, whatever that means. And of course, we do always want to look at how CPI has reacted in the past. This one here from Blue Kurdic over on X. And you can see here that when it comes to returns over the next coming sessions, oftent times it's been kind of mixed in recent times. So, you know, are we actually going to see a good forecast and a good number? I don't know how the market's going to react to this. Neither probably do you, but it can be an excuse to create volatility. So, we've got PPI the next session. This is just what's happened in the past. And of course the expectations for many retail client or retail people would be of course that we're going to see massive inflation. I don't know what to make of these numbers anymore. I think the better thing to do is to focus on the charts that are starting to move. And what we have seen is energy pick up last 24 hours copper breakout silver on the uptick and that's showing at least some kind of liquidity and expansion is going on in the economies right now. Usually wouldn't see silver and copper move otherwise. So for whatever reason that's happening probably AI race and other things we are starting to see a repricment there.
Now Ford profit margins we've been talking about earnings earnings earnings. This one here from duality research over on X is a cool chart cuz basically it shows here forward profit margins this earning season. You can see why this market's gone ballistic. It loves upgrading. The buffins have gone wild guys. It was a pretty good earning season. Now was this peak earnings? We might be doing a poll on that soon because if we've just seen peak earnings now, that's a different question. But is it peak? We don't know that yet. So that's why every earning season is going to matter. And of course, sub to the channel cuz we cover those earnings. And we will be covering of course Nvidia earnings very soon, which by itself, the market's already probably saying, well, I'm repricing into the event. That's why probably Nvidia is already moving.
Now, is everybody back in the markets? Yeah, a lot of people are. According to Jason Gotford over on X Capital Context here guys, the rolling 21-day sum has been on the uh on the improve recently in terms of too many people have been buying and this probably now if we were to upgrade it and and see a new chart on this with Jason Jason may do if he does we'll share it and give him a shout out for it. Uh maybe even up here with some of the previous times. Now is it an absolute topping signal? No. But it has been pretty good the last couple of years at showing a slowdown in the market. So what that means is that kind of like the Ballinger, it's kind of showing that maybe that area of the market, the Q's, the NASDAQ in this case, the biggest line share of the gains is probably over. Now, that's a a probability more so than a guarantee. There are no guarantees in this world, but you can just see that that they're starting to show uh those signs of maybe the biggest move is over.
Speaking of other big moves, we've got Bitcoin Flow. Now, we posted this over on X. Just goes to show that IBIT flow here. This one from Farside investors um in terms of source has actually shown that uh yeah there's been quite a bit of flow coming in over the last 21 days. In fact, it's $3.11 billion positive net flow approximately and this is a significant sign because it's been a while since we've seen Bitcoin getting positive flows in it. Once again, remember we've seen the COT report show some similar signs. We've seen IGV break up which has been similarities to it. remember they are in some ways. Yeah, software and Bitcoin somehow linked in some kind of synergy here. Uh but we haven't actually had positive news in terms of flows until just the other day.
All right, let's jump into the charts that matter at the moment. First up, we've got a look at the world's biggest hedge, which is obviously the US dollar, other than of course the precious metals. And at the moment, what have we got going on? Well, we've got a rangebound market. So, no movements here on the US dollar at this stage, guys. We'll be watching that one closely. Advanced decline line. Did it go up? Not really. Did it go down a lot? No. So, the market is still trundling its way up. It's still positive. I mean, even with it pushing Ballingers, we're not through that level. And here are the upgraded options high low levels. Now, we mentioned before that one of the most important charts that we're looking at is the 2hour 50 exponential moving average. Now, this market has actually decoupled from even that starting now to buy up on the 2hour 20. Now, that's showing a market that's accelerating away. And the problem with one like that is that it often gets quite volatile when it does eventually say, "Yeah, okay, I'm done with this run." Because basically, if you look at this on a daily, you're going to see that things were things accelerated super heavy, then they came back down. They became dull, as we have in the saying here, don't short a dull market, guys. It's terrifying. Um, there's a reason that those sayings do exist. And you can see here that now it's accelerated off again. So yeah, it's still in an upward trend. It seems to be following that 2hour 20 moving average, which is interesting. And it's made a series of higher highs and higher lows. So it's still making higher highs and higher lows. There's no reason to say the trend is over yet. And I think that's the important thing with investing and trading is you've got to realize that when the trend's going um up and it's pushing, it will often then encourage people to try to go against it cuz that's human nature. And you often see that appear in short markets and we've seen that exact thing happen with socks S which we've reported on several times.
Let's now jump on over to of course the gamma walls. Now what have we got? We've got the market going through or trying to get through 7,400 and then push towards 75. That is now the most struck level. Tons of calls of course around this range. And you can see here that 7,400 plus is positive gamma. So, we're back in that level and basically the markets at this stage are just keep continuing to push up and a lot of people are losing their minds. The reality is the buffins went nuts upgrading everything guys. So, the market is repricing in a lot of those forward gains. Remember, the market trades off 18 months usually in the future. Well, you know, a lot of people think we're just here. They've already upgraded into the future. They they now are looking for numbers that may not ever be achievable, but right now they think they are. So that's the most important component of these markets in many ways. That's why it's earnings, earnings, earnings for 2026 and beyond.
Let's now take a look at Q's again pushing the positive gamma side. Uh it looks like 715 is a little bit of a wall. I wouldn't say there's too much to note here. 720 shows up a lot as well. So interesting zones. And I bit the Bitcoin kind of uh overall gamma levels. You can see here that we're going above 46 at this stage and that's a positive sign. And 47 starting to appear pretty big level. in the future as well. So, Bitcoin's been trenling on up, but hasn't really seen those flows eventuate in big moves. I think Ethereum may need to break through a key level as well to actually get the flows really moving into the crypto space. We'll have a look at that later in the technical side.
Nvidia, what is going on here? Positive gamma 220 at this stage. And Nvidia is playing a little bit of catchup after hitting a cross demand. So basically an area where it's underperformed so badly to the semiconductors that now it's starting to find a little bit of its own gains and I think that's just really moving ahead of the earnings that are coming very soon. Tesla meanwhile wow what a move guys 450 smash straight into that next call. Uh that's pretty much the main first move you would think of what you would expect technically from from Tesla. Obviously, if it gets through 450, you know, a lot of people are going to be looking for 500, but it just goes to show that charts and flows do matter more so than narratives.
Let's now have a look at the charts for the bonds market. Does the bonds market care yet about this market? No. Even with the spike up in oil over the last 24 hours, we didn't see the move index do anything. We'll set a little alert here above that price just so that we know if it does make a higher high, but for now, the bonds market doesn't seem to care. And we're also not seeing the 30-year breakout past 5.1 or 5.05% yet. Are we watching this? Yes. Why? Because the fear of the unknown is usually what will take a market down. That's actually what creates fear. It's the unknown that freaks everything out.
Now, some positive news, I guess, if you're a bear in markets is that energy just popped up. So, we've got here a gap down and a gap up. That does create an island reversal in the direction of the shorter time frame change of trend. It's unusual for energy to not uh go up after it has been sitting for a long period of time and obviously it was a long time ago. It broke out. We first discussed this in oil services late last year. Then we saw it in January obviously appear. Then we got everything that's happened now and that's led to some amazing movements in energy. But this little gap up is a positive first sign for bulls coming off that 618 fib and of course a little island reversal here on smaller time frames. So some encouraging signs there from energy and you can see it's appeared in other markets as well.
Now let's just quickly have a look here at why energy and copper and all these things going up. It's not really a coincidence that you see all these things going up. That usually means yields will also try to go up. So that's why we're watching that 30 Y so much. But notice copper here. That weekly breakout was huge and it is repriced. Look at it go. It's actually flying at this point. And we check this out on the charts. And if you have a look, you can see here it kind of looks like a flag pattern. Uh which if it was to eventuate, and again, these are just technicals, guys. Please make sure to do your own analysis and everything. Uh you can see here that that would be taking us past that previous high and a lot of people will take it from the break, which could be pushing a 6.8 uh plus on copper. So, you know, it's it's amazing to see how things just go like this and then all of a sudden charts change.
Gold little bit more disappointing last 24 hours. Obviously, double bottom style pattern completes at around 48. Uh it hasn't moved up as much. It seems to be, you know, scarcity of usable metals that's really pushing, which is why silver's kind of moving. Has silver hit first resistances past that closure? Not really. And that suggests that maybe maybe pullbacks may be met by bull demand. So certainly some key levels here to look at on silver and that's a pretty nice breakout. So um yeah, strong stuff here from the metal that no one cared about up until pretty much 2 or 3 days ago which is what happens in markets.
XME very similar to the copper chart. You can see here we've got a movement up kind of thing and then if that breaks that would take it to a new high actually around that resistance of 135. It has closed new high. It did so days ago. Was it preempting as well some of these other moves? Hey, could be they all kind of go in uniformity or unison. So that's an interesting component. And we got another relatively okay day from software. Software holding above that WOFF suspected base that we've got right now.
Now let's move over to another market and that is of course semiconductors. Is this crazy? Yes. Is it wild? Yes. Is it historic? Yes, guys. Everything we're seeing here on semiconductors hasn't happened really other than maybe like one or two times during the com boom. So yeah, if you're thinking this is stupid and wild and and people don't make sense of it, sure. Uh but at the same time, we usually don't see profit upgrades the way we just did. So the market is absolutely loving what it's seeing and it just continues to push higher and higher and higher for at least now. And what that's leading into is really I think a question of when eventually something happens. You've just got to be aware of the risk. You've got to be aware of the risk guy because look at this. Just one announcement comes out all of a sudden the cost is down 7%. This is hardware but this what happens if if you get a bad piece of news or like of course less nothing usually trade or like usually the trend won't end until nothing good nothing any better could ever come out about it. Then all of a sudden you see this huge volatility and I I think that you know we've seen this in the past. We know semis are starting to get repriced up a little bit. So you got to be aware that there will be quite a lot of vol at least in our opinion this year and these particular markets you've what goes up so hard usually does start to see some extreme volatility and I think Cosby showed the first signs of that the last 24 hours and Nvidia has been playing catch-up. So, as we've seen, Nvidia versus semiconductors, that's been pretty low. But the weekly close of Nvidia just a few weeks ago, uh, back in 20th of April showed that there was something going on here. Uh, then all of a sudden, we've had, you know, the market obviously break to a new all-time high and 220 suddenly putting pressure on as well. And, you know, this is probably in advance of earnings. And you've got to remember, one of the things about Nvidia is it does tend to have good earnings as in it beats expectations. But the left hand side coming in is Nvidia about to, you know, basically post a buy the rumor, sell the fact because everything else has been upgrading. Clearly the street is trying to front run some of those earnings gains that they're expecting.
Just a quick reminder of volatility. I just want to show you car here. What people loved a few weeks ago. Look at it now, guys. Got to be careful out there. That that is a chart. I'm telling you what, that's wild.
Now, let's move to Tesla. first resistance, the key major resistance or supply level has been um hit it. It literally just hit 450 pretty much straight on. And I want to show you here, you can see just before 450 it stops. That's that psychological level coming through. So always important to notice these on charts and of course pay attention to them.
When it comes to other markets around the world, Chinese market is just below the 265 resistance level. If it breaks through that, we could be looking at 27 plus. And for the XJO, for the Australians out there, not a great session ahead of the budget. So, obviously, we're about to see the budget here in Australia. There's mixed results. Metals probably pretty good. Um, energy probably pretty good. Financials, and that's the issue, I guess, with Australia sometimes, but still stuck within the zone, and we'll see what happens. You know, key level here is 8586, and we'll be watching that zone over the next 24 hours, especially since the budget's coming out. So, we'll give our thoughts on that in the next video. For the Australian guys, I know you guys need to need to have a little bit of love in there because it's it's always good to look at the XJO, especially when we've seen metal start to move.
NASDAQ time. Uh, yeah, it just continues to go up. 2 hour 20 again, the 2hour 20 is holding. Uh, I like the 2-hour 50, but this market is accelerated away from that. So, what's it been doing? Series of 2hour 20s on the way up. This is now the new accelerated level. So if we break under this, it's the first sign of some weak weakness. Obviously, yes, we are outside of weekly Ballingers as well by quite a lot, which suggests that it's very overbought. I mean, extremely overbought when you get to this kind of level. So yeah, I think it's uh it's only a matter of time, guys, but of course, you can say that for about a week or two. The key is that is the trend still intact? Yeah. Uh so once that changes, we'll of course update and let you guys know.
Bitcoin time. Nothing really great coming out about this pair. No higher high obviously daily 20 moving average. You can see here kind of, you know, will we get back to that? Are we going to see a buy? That's going to be an interesting level. It's on that daily 200 as well as a resistance. Bit of a problem here for Ethereum for Bitcoin. and it struggled through and Ethereum still hasn't broken above that 2450 which we have an alert on just in case that happens cuz that could be like kind of a a catalyst or a signal that many different things are starting to improve across the board and that opens up the potential for you know repricment and obviously people like Tom Lee and others have come out and said that they're pretty bullish on Ethereum so you know things can feed upon themselves pretty quickly in the crypto world uh once they start to move.
Now what have we got going on the next 24 hours got CPI it's expected to obviously be up but the question is how much uh this is happening 1 hour before the market opens so expect there could be some volatility there got PPI the next session as well guys and as always it's all about making sure that we are on top of this news you understand it's there but you know the trend is intact technically or are we actually seeing weakness.
Now just quick announcement here before we finish up today's video if you're interested in finding out a little bit more about what we do over at fxevolution.com we do have a special new addition to to our courses which is the technical analysis masterass. All six modules $297 just at the moment. And it does come with of course free access to one month of our market masters club which I think you guys uh really enjoy which is obviously where you can talk with like-minded individuals like yourselves. We've got one of the best communities on the internet when it comes to trading and investing. So if you're interested in finding out more, you can click on the links in the description down below. Also, just quick reminder, follow us over on socials as well and sign up for our free newsletter. A new one coming very soon, guys. Think you'll enjoy that. And of course, check us out over on X. Thanks so much for watching. Sub, hit the bell. We'll see you in the next one.