Transcription
So, let's not forget, he gets frustrated with people that don't do as well. I mean, look at the way he has lashed out at Iran over the last few weeks repeatedly. And he's pretty fed up of the fact that it's it's really Putin that's looking intransigent when it comes to finishing the war in Ukraine.
But, so let's continue with Ukraine. And let's listen to Donald Trump's latest pronouncement. During a meet meeting with NATO chief Mark Rutte in the Oval Office, he said this about President Volodymyr Zelensky.
"Well, he's doing pretty well. Look, no matter how you look at it, he's doing pretty well. He's holding his own at least. And a lot of people dying on both sides. But I think he's doing pretty well."
"Mr. President, can I ask you?"
"Look, you have to, you have to say he's courageous. He's got great equipment. But he's got great men. He's got fighters."
Unusual positivity there from Trump toward Zelensky and Ukraine. The Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper is actually in Poland today for a Ukraine recovery conference along with Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy. They're going to unveil 290 million pounds of further UK funding to help Ukraine's recovery. Let's discuss all of this now with Catherine Philp, The Times World Affairs Editor. Catherine, thanks for joining me on The Times at 1. Do you think something important is happening in Washington? Do you think that Trump is finally beginning to see Zelensky as a potential winner rather than loser?
Hi, Stephen. Well, yes. This is the man that Trump wrote off, telling him he had no cards in that infamous Oval Office encounter early last year. Things have shifted. They're shifting rapidly. Not so much on the battlefields, but beyond with these deep strikes in Russia. And that seems to have made an impression on Trump. Now, let's not forget the other factor, the other um in the background here is that Trump has just caved on Iran, uh, effectively, and is taking a lot of heat for that, uh, at home and and abroad. And Trump likes a winner. And this is, this was a man, Zelensky, that he, as I say, he wrote off as being a loser. He now looks at him and realizes one, that maybe winning isn't so easy as he's just experienced in in Iran. And that Zelensky, in fact, is looking much more like a winner. So, perhaps in that entire context, plus the fact that, don't forget, since uh, Trump put all that pressure on Europe, it is Europe that is um, almost entirely underwriting the uh, the purchase of weapons, most of which actually are still American. Uh, so, so Trump's uh, economy is raking in the profits from what we buy for uh, Ukraine in Europe. Things have turned in a way that are favorable for a, a favorable atmosphere for him to look very differently at Zelensky. Plus, let's not forget, he gets frustrated with people that don't do his will. I mean, look at the way he has lashed out at Iran over the last, uh, few weeks repeatedly. And he's pretty fed up of the fact that it's it's really Putin that's looking intransigent when it comes to finishing the war in Ukraine.
But, the one person he's never lashed out at is Vladimir Putin. You know, some people question whether that can ever change, whether there is something about the Trump-Putin relationship which means that Trump is never going to turn on the Russian president. What's your view on that?
I mean, that's kind of unknowable. I, I was there in Helsinki when the two men infamously met and Trump threw his weight behind uh, Putin and against those of his own intelligence agencies. I mean, we haven't seen Trump actually turn on Putin yet. We've seen him praise Zelensky, and that's probably a different thing, and he's able to do one, not the other. Uh, I think really we have to hope that Putin comes to this realization by himself. He's not going to be pressured by Trump, and I don't think that there's very much Trump could actually do to move him. He is intransigent. I think that forces far beyond Washington will have to conspire, such as, as you suggested, the fact that the costs of the war are being are increasingly visible in Russia, and and the war is coming home to roost.
Yeah, you, you, Catherine, I know you watch the front line very closely, and as you rightly point out, there's actually not that much moving. I mean, there's a terrible loss of life still, but not that much moving in the Donbas. But what is significant, I think, is what's happening in Crimea, because Ukraine has used its missiles and drones to very effectively cut supply lines and pulverize military resupply. Crimea's looking increasingly isolated from the Russian mainland, and we see queues and queues of people trying to get out of Crimea. The arguably many of them Russians who moved into occupied Crimea after 2014, and now no longer regard it as safe. Is Crimea something we need to watch carefully, because how vulnerable could it be?
I think it could be very vulnerable. I mean, it's it's a peninsula that is almost an island, and indeed Ukraine's defense minister said this week that Crimea would soon be an island again. I think that's entirely possible in terms of military logistics, of the fact that it's been cut off from fuel. But not just Crimea. I think the fact that you've seen fuel shortages all over Russia, the fact that so much of the refining capability has been taken out, and so much of the oil infrastructure, that effectively Ukraine is doing kinetically on the ground what US sanctions on Russian oil had done before, and which got offset, of course, when those sanctions were lifted by what was going on in Iran, plus, plus the uh, the surge in the oil prices because of this closure of the Strait of Hormuz. That all benefited Russia. So actually, to just hit and take out those capacities was quite a big strategy for Ukraine that seems to have really paid off. But, well, it's not just that. You've seen airports across Russia closed. You've seen, you've seen Russia, the Russian military move their defenses from the front line to around Moscow, as well as. So, it's all of these factors. It's looking extremely real on the ground to the people of Russia that that they're, they're feeling the effects.
So, who's? Yeah, no doubt. So, here's a, a big question. Is Vladimir Putin, and you say the pressure on him is significantly growing. Is he a man, in your belief, who can make a peace deal? Who's willing to even contemplate a peace deal with Ukraine, which of course would involve compromise, or is he so tied now to this project of his in Ukraine, to the whole business of running a war, a militarized war economy, a war culture and society, that he's a man who cannot contemplate a peace deal?
I think that there's a very large possibility that he cannot contemplate a peace deal. No, I think that's really difficult, even though he is indeed asking for talks again. Now, that's a curious thing to do when you're coming from a point of weakness, because he's always wanted to go into talks from a position of strength. But he's actually, it's been a long time since he was pushing for peace talks. I personally think there's every reason to believe that he doesn't really, isn't really being told the truth about what's going on on the front line, that that may not be getting back to him. However, with these deep strikes, it's sort of harder to avoid for him. It's, it's so visible that it's not just a question of what people come, come and tell him anymore, you know, reports from the front line. So, it must be becoming more obvious to him what's happening. I think we need to probably look towards the autumn, and when he may have to take a huge decision, which is whether he issues a mobilization call, whether he has. They are losing so many people at the front line that he has to go back to general mobilization, which was last done in 2022, and was incredibly unpopular amongst the Russian people, and he hasn't repeated that. They've been throwing money at soldiers who are, you know, often completely inadequate for, for the front line, but they've been throwing huge salaries at them to get them there. If by the autumn he has to turn to mobilization, I think that will tell us something about how, you know, how where he goes from there, because it's a huge step, and it's going to cause a lot of disquiet amongst the Russian society.
Talk about disquiet in Russian society, and I've spoken to a few people who watch this very closely who say, "Look, do not forget one factor here. There is still a deep concern in Western capitals, not least in Washington, that if Russia is put under such enormous pressure, if Putin's war is visibly and clearly failing, there could be a scenario of chaos, political chaos inside Russia. And for the most powerfully nuclear-armed state of the world to fall into chaos is a deeply troubling scenario for people in Washington, of course, people in London here, too, as well. Are people talking to you about that, about the real risk at some point that the war could go so badly, Putin's position may become untenable, and Russia could fragment?"
On a serious level, no. I think that people feel like there's a Russia problem, not just a Putin problem. And if Putin were to vanish overnight, other people, a securitized state like that, someone else would rise into that position. So, I mean, it's obviously a scenario that you have to be conscious of, because it would be a nightmare for the rest of the world, and and not just for, for Russia itself. But I know, I don't see that anyone thinks that that is about to happen in any kind of short or medium term.