Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Ethereum's dubious speculation. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com. Let's go ahead and jump in.
So, Ethereum, as you can see, it's currently trading right around $4,500. Now, the path for Ethereum, I have laid out what I think is the most likely outcome multiple times. Now, getting the path right is is very difficult. Um, frankly, the best strategy was just buying Ethereum when it went home back in April and then just kind of sitting on your hands for a while, right? Like that's probably the best solution rather than to try to time every little move that Ethereum makes. So, just know that that is ultimately what I think is the most successful strategy, right? Buy Ethereum when it goes home and then as it goes higher, as it goes up the wristbands, you can then slowly sell off some, especially as we get later into the year. That is ultimately the best strategy. And that would also, it would also correspond to just following the risk metric for Ethereum, right? Just following the risk metric for Ethereum and kind of seeing what it normally does. And right now, it's right at that 7 risk level and saying, "Alright, well, we know that this is what, you know, this is sort of the the beginning phase of what normally leads into market cycle tops." Alright, so let's talk about the path. Alright, at the end of the day, I think that within a few months, we'll be looking back and Ethereum will be at new all-time highs. Okay, so that is what I, that is my base case, is that Ethereum will go to a new all-time high. In fact, what we said would happen is very close to how it's actually played out. What, what, what I think is is hard is for people to just kind of have the patience to watch it play out.
So, essentially, what we said was that Ethereum would likely get this pullback. It would go home. After that, it would then rally to an all-time high, right? It would rally to an all-time high, but it would not be successful on the first attempt of putting in a new durable all-time high, right? It would sweep it, but it would not actually lead to a durable new high at that time. And one of the reasons, and it's just like practical, right? It's rational. It doesn't really matter how, how bullish you are on Ethereum. The reasoning for that has nothing to do with Ethereum. It just, I mean, it has to do with the fact that a lot of people bought ETH over here back in 2021 and they just spent years waiting for it to just break even, right? So, it doesn't really matter what your conviction is. There's a lot of people out there that were going to sell on the first approach to the all-time high, right? That's kind of how it always plays out. Even if you look at, at last cycle, you can see that after Ethereum made an all-time high, it then got a pretty deep correction and then ultimately it did go higher as we got later into the cycle. So, getting a correction after sweeping the all-time high was always the most likely outcome, right? Always the most likely outcome.
And now, the question is, is well, you know, what remains? What remains? Well, if you look at the ROI of Bitcoin from the low, right? If you measure the ROI of Bitcoin from the low, from the having, from the peak, it would still suggest the cycle has a little bit further to go in terms of time, right? So then Ethereum still has theoretically further to go in terms of time as well. It's also important to remember that oftentimes Ethereum will actually put in its all-time high, its market cycle top after Bitcoin, right? So like in the 2017, 2018 cycle, Ethereum peaked about one month after the king, after Bitcoin, right? Ethereum peaked in mid-January. But if you look at Bitcoin back then, you'll see it actually topped in mid-December. If you look at 2021 and you take the first peak, Bitcoin topped in mid-April, whereas Ethereum back then, uh, found a a high in about mid-May. Alright. So, as long as the cycle for Bitcoin continues, then there's a good chance that Ethereum, it will continue for Ethereum as well. And there's also a a realistic case to be made that whenever Bitcoin's all-time high does happen, that Ethereum's could happen, you know, a few weeks later. So, it naturally draws the comparison of, okay, well, Bitcoin put in an all-time high on August 11th. Ethereum put in an all-time high the week of August 18th. So, technically speaking, Ethereum did put in an all-time high after Bitcoin. So, I don't want to minimize that, right? There's a reality that it's already played out.
But one of the reasons why I, I, I still think Ethereum will get another push to all-time highs is because a lot of the major peaks for Bitcoin historically have happened in Q4 of the post-having year, right? Every single prior major top for Bitcoin, in fact, has happened, uh, you know, in in that time frame. You can see, um, let me just hide this really quick. You can see that we had a top in late 2013, Q4 2013, Q4 2017, uh, Q4 of 2021, and so now we're just waiting to see, alright, will we repeat it? And and and will Bitcoin put in a new all-time high in Q4 of 2025? And I, I'd say there's still a realistic chance. The only reason I would change my view on that is if Bitcoin got two weekly closes below the 50-week moving average, right? If we had two weekly closes below the 50-week SMA, all bets are off, right? At that point, you're probably safer just assuming the cycle's over because historically, when you get two weekly closes below the 50-week moving average, the cycle has been over, right? So that's what you want to watch, a weekly close below the 50-week SMA. Now, right now, the 50-week SMA is around 98K, right? So, it's not, it's not like disastrously lower, right? It's like, you know, 20% lower or so than the current price is. Um, so there's still some, there's reason to be optimistic about Ethereum considering where Bitcoin currently sits.
Now, you're probably wondering, why are altcoins popping off right now, but Ethereum can't seem to follow through? Well, this was also what we said would likely happen. We looked at alt-ETH pairs and what we said was that after Ethereum makes an all-time high, alts will then rally against Ethereum, right? And you guys remember Ethereum hit an all-time high the week of August 18th. August 18th is exactly when alts bottomed against Ethereum, right? So, the rally by altcoins against Ethereum started right after Ethereum hit an all-time high. Now, I think alts, and I've said this for a while, alts will continue to rally against Ethereum until Ethereum tags the 21-week EMA. That's what I've said. Now, has Ethereum tagged the 21-week EMA? No, it has not. When did I say it likely would? I said if it's going to happen, it's probably going to be late September or early October. If it doesn't happen, then, then throw it out the window and we'll focus on something else. But in terms of figuring out when Ethereum sucks that liquidity back from altcoins, it could correspond to alts tagging their 21-week EMA against Ethereum, right? So, alts are now in week four of rallying against Ethereum. And I'm making the argument that, hey, what if they just simply rally against Ethereum until all ETH pairs hit their 21-week EMA and then they get rejected as Ethereum sucks that liquidity back in from the altcoin market? That's essentially what's going on right now.
So, when you go back to ETH and you're like, "Well, what is it doing right now? And where is the 21-week EMA?" Well, the 21-week EMA right now is at $3,600. I'm not suggesting that Ethereum has to go to $3,600. I'm suggesting that in order for Ethereum to make durable new all-time highs and not just a wick, it will likely tag the 21-week EMA. That doesn't mean it has to tag the 21-week EMA where it is right now. In a couple of weeks, the 21-week EMA will be higher. But if you just go through the motions and you look at all prior post-having years, post-election years, Ethereum tagged that 21-week EMA in late September, early October, um, and even early November right here before then going into the final rally to the market cycle top. So, and even in 2020, you can see something very, very similar happened. And that occurred again in late September. And then in early October, Ethereum started to build off that base and then liquidity flowed back to Ethereum. So, if you're sitting here and you've got, you know, let's say you got a portfolio consisting of of Bitcoin and Ethereum, maybe you have a couple of altcoins. I'm not talking about those alts. If you're wondering about like, you know, when might Ethereum suck that liquidity back from the altcoin market, the answer is likely after it tags the 21-week EMA.
Now, there does exist a scenario where Ethereum doesn't drop to the 21-week EMA. There's, there does exist a scenario where Ethereum just kind of goes sideways until the 21-week EMA catches up and then it goes higher. That is also a perfectly valid outcome. In fact, we just saw that outcome play out with gold, right, with gold. And we, you know, we do videos on gold every few months. Um, that's exactly what happened with gold. You can see it, it had a big rally and then it just went sideways until the bull market support band caught up and then it pushed to a new all-time high. You see, and it's not the first time it's done it, right? It has done it plenty of times where it'll wait for the 21-week EMA or the 20-week estimate, right? It'll wait for them to catch up and then it pushes higher, but it doesn't necessarily have to go all the way down there. So, what I would say is if you're curious when alts will start bleeding to Ethereum again because it was, they bled like crazy from April until until Ethereum hit an all-time high in August. When will it happen again? It'll likely start after Ethereum tags its bull market support band. And it could happen as early as late September, early October. That's what I think is the most likely outcome. If it doesn't happen, then, um, then it, it could just be going sideways until it, it catches up.
So, I'm not suggesting, you know, you should go sell your Ethereum or anything like that to try to time the market, right? What I'm saying is that if you're curious about why has Ethereum sort of tapped out here while altcoins have surged, it's because Ethereum already surged a lot while altcoins didn't really go much of anywhere, right? Remember, alts not that long ago were just bleeding against Ethereum non-stop. In fact, they dropped 53% against Ethere Ethereum. Now they've rallied 15% against ETH and everyone has forgotten about Ethereum again. Well, I'm, I'm telling you the most likely outcome here is that Ethereum will continue to bide its time. It'll bide its time. It'll lull sort of the altcoin market into a false sense of security that the bleeding is over. But in reality, what's likely going to happen is the minute Ethereum tags that 21-week EMA, whether it happens this month, whether it happens early next month, whether Ethereum goes sideways for a few months and then it tags it, after it tags it, that's likely when Ethereum takes off again, you know.
So, I mean, look, we can go back and forth for the next four weeks if you guys want to. um and and say, "Well, you know, Ben said it was going to attack the 21K." Cuz all I'm saying is that in order for Ethereum, in my opinion, in order for it to get a rally to 5K, 6K, maybe 7K, right? In order for it to do that, all it needs is just check in with the 21-week EMA. And really, if you look at the daily time frame, that's what it did last time, right? I mean, look at, look at the last consolidation phase. Notice what Ethereum did. It, it went up, it then went slightly higher, but until it tagged this, right? Until it got a a a big scare down, it wasn't going anywhere. And then when it did and then rocketed up to new all-time highs, or not new all-time highs, but a new sort of a new high from the April low. I'm arguing that this phase right here is exactly where we are again now. It's trying to go higher, right? It's trying, but it's struggling because it needs to get sort of that final test of the 21 week and then it can go up. Whether it goes down into it or sideways and then up, that's hard to say.
The other thing is ETH-Bitcoin. We said would likely find a local top when Ethereum made an all-time high. Now, that has happened, right? It, it made a local top the week of August 18th when Ethereum made an all-time high. It has struggled ever since. It has struggled ever since. And so what I'm arguing is that the ETH-Bitcoin valuation is likely going to go to 0.05, probably a little higher than 0.05 if I had to guess, back up to where it found support in the summer of 2022. That's where I think it's going. But in order to get there, it's likely going to tag its 21-week EMA against Bitcoin and then go up. The reason is because we're, we're quickly approaching the month of October. And October is, is, is really Bitcoin's time, right? It's, it's Bitcoin dominance time. It is not Ethereum time. That doesn't mean Ethereum can't go up. I'm not saying that. But if you go look at, at, at Bitcoin dominance, let's just go look at Bitcoin dominance. Everyone's favorite metric. Look at October. October tends to be a great month for Bitcoin dominance. Now go look at the ETH-Bitcoin pair in October on average. On average, on average, ETH goes down against Bitcoin 10% in October. Are there some green months? Absolutely. 2015 was green in October, 2021 and 2022, but on average, it's a, it's a red month. And so what I'm saying is, hey, liquidity will flow back to Bitcoin, especially in October. It dominance is likely forming a low in September. Liquidity is going to go back to the king in October. ETH-Bitcoin will likely drop a little bit more to that 21-week EMA and then it'll rocket up to 0.05. And when it does that, it'll likely correspond to Ethereum going to potentially its market cycle top. That's how I think this is going to play out.
So, if we're sitting here in a couple of weeks and Ethereum is is tagging that 21-week EMA, it's probably an opportunity. If it's going sideways and it's not tagging it, it's just waiting for the 21-week MA to catch up. I don't know exactly how it, the path to get there. I do think Ethereum will break through eventually, but this is normally a, a consolidation time for Ethereum. Look at 2021, right? I mean, you know, when you were in that sort of that late that September, um, early October time frame, it was a consolidation phase time. If you look at 2017, you can see September to October consolidation phase. That's what's happening right now. In my opinion, I think Ethereum is sort of forming out a base before it goes into the final rally into the market cycle top. That's how I think it's going to play out. Um, we'll see what happens. Am I suggesting you go sell your Ethereum in case it tags 21 KMA? No, I'm not. Um, I'm not suggesting that because the reality is is even if you do that, there's a good chance that when Ethereum does go to the 21 KMA, you still won't buy it because you'll, you know, you'll be scared, right? Because there's going to be something going on and people will be scared. So, I'm not suggesting you do that. I, I'm just saying, look, this is the most likely outcome in my view. Base case is that within two or three months, Ethereum will be at an all-time high. Uh, and it should be above 5K. That is my base case. But in order to get there, I think that 21-week EMA is going to, is going to sort of come into question.
Now, is it possible that Ethereum goes slightly higher before dropping down there? Yeah, it's possible. Look at this consolidation phase. You can see it put in a, a few divergences, right? I mean, you basically had the price going up slightly, but RSI was likely going down during that time. Like, if you pull up the RSI, um, you can see back over here, Ethereum was slightly going up, but the RSI was dropping. That's the same thing going on right now, right? Like the RSI has been dropping as, as the price has slowly trended up, but ultimately what you got eventually was you got sort of this breakdown down here and then that was the fuel it needed to then go to all-time highs. So, you're either going to see the RSI kind of hang out over here for a while or it's going to drop and then go right back up. So that's how I think it's going to play out. We'll see what happens.
The other reason too, I mean, I, it's the sort of the rationale behind getting a, a slight, you know, this kind of extended consolidation phase into late September and early October is because if you go look at, at, you know, say like year-to-date returns of the S&P 500, right? If you look at that this year and if you compare that to our post-election years, you'll see that we are kind of extended right now, like that, the S&P is kind of extended. It doesn't mean that it can't just melt up further, right? Like there are times where it just melts up throughout the rest of September and then goes into October. If that happens, that, that could be a bad sign. Uh, because, you know, you could have a major top by the S&P in October if that happens. But if you just see it cool off, like a 5% drop or something by the S&P, that'd be a great sign, uh, to sort of maybe just reset itself like Ethereum has and then to go into sort of that into that final rally into the market cycle top. So those are my views. That's what I think Ethereum is doing. Uh, I wouldn't lose patience with it. If, and by the way, if I'm wrong about tagging the 21-week EMA, so be it. You know, I bought Ethereum down here. I mentioned I was skimming a little bit on the break of the all-time high just because I thought there was going to be a rejection, but I'm ready for Ethereum to break through 5K. I just don't think it's going to durably happen until it checks in with that 21-week EMA. The 21-week EMA when Ethereum hit all-time highs was at around 3,100 because Ethereum's been going sideways. Now it's at around 35, 3600. In a few more weeks, it could be at say 3,800. So what I think you could happen you could see is just like sort of a wick below 4K or something. Um, you know, something like that might happen or I mean, you know, it's possible that it just, you know, goes sideways until it until it catches up, kind of like gold, you know, where it does, where it did something like this and then up. All right. So, either that and then up or down and then up. If it goes up like this, I think it'll be a, I think it'll be sort of like a divergence like this one where it'll still then like drop down here before going back.
If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and again, check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com. I'll see you guys next time. Bye.