Transcription
The Thai-Cambodian conflict could be one character that China must make us and Cambodia stop fighting to prepare for the big battle, World War 3. I believe China is heavily adjusting its strategy now because China is starting to realize that a major war is likely to happen and is unavoidable. The reason for the blockade of Taiwan is that China has signaled that Japan, the Philippines, and the US have been negotiating maritime border demarcation in the South China Sea, defining exclusive economic zones and continental shelves. China says, "Hey, in the South China Sea, China has a stake. Why didn't they tell China? Why did they make an agreement between just two countries, Japan and the Philippines?" This is what happened after the signing of the 14-point MOU today. There will be a scenario called "Perfect World War 3," a full-scale World War 3. If it happens, it will occur in three major battlefields.
The first is Russia clashing with NATO, not just fighting Ukraine, four provinces, and Crimea. The second battlefield is the Middle East. It will be version 3, but this version will be a decisive one. The third battlefield is the most frightening. The decisive battle is not in the South China Sea. If the battle occurs in the Indo-Pacific region, it will be in the Strait of Malacca, involving Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and our country, Thailand. Guitar must be in this battlefield, unavoidable. Thailand Gold Summit 2026, a platform for leading investment and geopolitics experts, opens up views on safe-haven assets and new investment opportunities. Meet us at True Digital Park on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Free entry for registered participants only.
It seems there will be a new round of negotiations after the recent exchange of fire. Do you still think this is just buying time, or will they return to the negotiating table and truly move towards peace? The negotiations in Doha today are strange because representatives are involved, and the latest news is that they are in separate rooms.
Therefore, before we get into the situation and what might happen, I will go back a bit so the viewers and listeners can follow along. After the signing of the 14-point MOU, there have been recent attacks. The most recent is Iran attacking a Singaporean-flagged ship. I call it Singaporean-flagged because the actual owner is Taiwanese. And attacking a Panamanian-flagged ship. After Iran attacked, the US immediately retaliated by attacking the cities of Sinik and the island of Qes. The US believes both locations were attacked because they are missile launch bases, drone launch bases, and Iranian radar bases. After the US attacked, Iran immediately announced that the attack on the Singaporean and Panamanian-flagged ships was because they were sailing too close to the coast of Oman without informing Iran. Iran has declared that it will be the sole controller of Hormuz, with Oman co-managing. However, the final decision rests with Iran. Therefore, Iran must be informed first. This is the reason Iran attacked. After that, when the US attacked Qes Island and Sinik, Iran immediately retaliated by attacking US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. We see that the 14-point agreement states that the Strait of Hormuz must be opened within 30 days, and nuclear development will be discussed within 60 days. I see that it is becoming increasingly bleak and looks like buying time.
But what I have observed, and what viewers and listeners have followed with me, is what happened after this signing. The Russia-Ukraine war erupted, with Ukraine sending thousands of drones to attack Moscow. Putin is now under heavy domestic pressure, asking why he isn't using Iran's strategy of attacking drone production bases in NATO countries or Europe. Both the Russian opposition and the Russian working group have a consensus that Russia must open a front in Europe. We will have to wait and see what President Putin finally decides, whether to attack like Iran, targeting NATO bases or weapons production facilities that are destroying Russia, and destroy them all. That will lead to a regional war in Europe 100%, Guitar.
Guitar, look at China. In this period, there have been unusual diplomatic activities since Xi Jinping visited Kim Jong Un. After that, they invited Cambodia, of course, right? You signed it, and the Prime Minister will go in July by invitation. And there are many other countries whose doors to China are never empty. I believe China is heavily adjusting its strategy now because China is starting to realize that a major war is likely to happen and is unavoidable. What is China doing now? China is reinforcing its operations near Taiwan, with plans to blockade it by air and sea. China is currently conducting drills, bringing ships into the Taiwan Strait. Ultimately, if an incident occurs, I believe China will blockade Taiwan by sea and air, establishing a no-fly zone over Taiwan.
The reason for blockading Taiwan is that China has signaled that Japan, the Philippines, and the US have been negotiating maritime border demarcation in the South China Sea, defining exclusive economic zones and continental shelves. China says, "Hey, in the South China Sea, China has a stake. Why didn't they tell China? Why did they make an agreement between just two countries, Japan and the Philippines?" Not only that, but recently, the South Korean and Japanese governments have announced full-scale defense cooperation. We must know that South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines are strategic allies of the US in the Indo-Pacific. Guitar. Yes. These movements have already begun. Therefore, when China announces a naval blockade and conducts naval drills, Taiwan immediately elevates its war readiness, Guitar. This is what happened after the signing of the 14-point MOU. Yes. Therefore, I see it this way: today, there will be a scenario called "Perfect World War 3," a full-scale World War 3. I am analyzing this from many things happening simultaneously.
The first scenario is if the US, Israel, or NATO cannot hold out until the US midterm elections, which will affect the current government's decisions because it requires votes in both the House and the Senate. It might explode before then. The second scenario is trying to hold out until after the US midterm elections, Donald Trump wins, and can control the votes in both the House and the Senate. Therefore, these two scenarios I foresee mean avoiding World War 3 is impossible, but whether it happens before or after the midterm elections, we must follow the situation minute by minute. Because if it happens, it will occur in three major battlefields.
The first is a battlefield in Europe, with Russia clashing with NATO, as Putin's team and the opposition have authorized. Not just fighting Ukraine, four provinces, and Crimea, but they must go and destroy the weapons production bases that support Ukraine because, going forward, Russia will lose. Therefore, we will wait and see. The first battlefield is Russia and NATO. The second battlefield is the Middle East. Today, we see ongoing talks, negotiations, and alternating attacks, with each side having its reasons. Therefore, if it happens this time, I believe it will be major, including the Middle East and major powers like India, in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. It will be version 3 of the confrontation, but this version will be a decisive one because it will enter "Perfect World War 3."
The third battlefield is the most frightening, Guitar, because the big player, China, is showing a clear reaction to this war. First, Guitar, few people know that China is accelerating drone production, 1 million units since 2024, to be completed by 2027. China believes that a major war with the US is difficult to avoid, especially in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, according to the Indo-Pacific strategy. This will pair North Korea clashing with South Korea, and then clashing with Japan. China will seize Taiwan, as planned for the annexation of Taiwan. Today, this is the country's plan. And it will destroy the Philippines, including its allies, such as China's allies: Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam. The US allies are clearly the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea. As for the decisive battle not being in the South China Sea, if the battle occurs in the Indo-Pacific region, it will be in the Strait of Malacca, involving Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and our country, Thailand. Guitar. We must be in this battlefield, unavoidable.
Therefore, Xi Jinping's invitation to Tayyip Erdoğan and the invitation to the meeting in Beijing, and soon inviting our Prime Minister Anutin to meet, I believe they will discuss adjusting their attitudes, simply put, their perspectives on what to do if the Indo-Pacific strategy truly emerges. This will be a major issue for the whole world, and I believe this war will erupt, whether before or after the US midterm elections. There will be many battles, Guitar. In one war, there might be 20 battles. We already see it: Russia-Poland, Russia-Germany, Russia-UK, or playing with France, or Latvia, or Finland. Iran might clash with Israel, the US forces in the Middle East, including Bahrain, Kuwait, where Iran has been firing missiles all the time, right? There might be many battles, but in the South China Sea, oh my, I think it will be intense because there are about ten countries involved in this conflict, Guitar: North Korea, South Korea, Philippines, China, Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia. I predict that from now on, we must pay close attention. I see the overall situation developing continuously. And China itself is fully playing the role of the big brother.
And now, I see it this way: today, the US has paused its offensive for major reasons. First, the price of oil in the US. Even though the US is a major oil producer, both oil and gas, it is not a major refined oil producer and relies on imports from the Middle East. Therefore, the US pause is to adjust its plan, to replenish weapons, and to control inflation because inflation affects the cost of living and bond yields, Guitar. This is what is likely to happen from now on. The Thai-Cambodian conflict could be one character that China must make us and Cambodia stop fighting to prepare for the big battle, World War 3.
Thank you everyone for following us all along. Our goal is to take this channel to 1 million subscribers to create a wider society of learning in economics, business, and investment. We now have YouTube Membership. By subscribing, you will receive exclusive content and seminars from PR KP and the Business Tomorrow team. Please subscribe.