Transcription
Hello, Friday, July 10, 2569. It is currently 12:32 PM. Many of you may be having lunch right now, but there is breaking news to update you on the situation. This is because we are unsure if this news will be a game-changer for the war in the Middle East. This is an exclusive report, a report that was made as a sole exclusive by the Wall Street Journal. They have stated that Israel has provided intelligence to the United States, indicating that Iran may be considering a new plan to assassinate President Donald Trump. This information may not yet have publicly available evidence, and it is not yet confirmed whether the plan has entered the operational stage. However, this accusation is serious enough to change the equation for the entire region. Because if the threat to the US leader is perceived as real, the US response may not stop at bases, nuclear facilities, or the Strait of Hormuz. It could escalate to directly targeting Iran's leadership and power structure. But the big question is, if this revenge plan were to happen, would Israel's intelligence game be a pressure tactic to push Mr. Donald Trump further into the Middle East war political game, larger than before? We will analyze this today. Regarding this situation, including the upcoming weekend, and Mr. Trump has already torn up the 60-day ceasefire. But the latest news is that Mr. Trump claims that Iranian executives have contacted him and said they still want to negotiate. Mr. Trump said he would consider whether technical negotiations could proceed. Meanwhile, the fighting continues, as the United States has also bombed Iranian railway bridges, which are railways connecting Russia and China. Today, our guest should be able to analyze this situation well, to understand what game Mr. Trump is playing. Today, we invite General Rangsi Kittiyanapsap, an expert in international politics and the leader of the Economic Party, to analyze the situation for us. Hello.
Hello, Khun Nawarat, and viewers.
Oh, the news has just come in, General Rangsi. We need your analysis on whether this news is credible. They reported it, and they claim Israel said it. So we need to analyze whether you think this is likely to be true, or if Israel is trying to lure Mr. Trump into a trap.
The news of a potential assassination of Trump stems from a funeral ceremony, if I recall correctly, in the city of Bushehr.
Yes.
A large number of Iranian people attended, and they were shouting for revenge, for revenge. And Iran holding a funeral ceremony for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was like rubbing salt in the wound of the Iranian people who were present at the funeral. So they shouted this: "We must take revenge, we must assassinate Trump." And I believe Israel then took this matter up as an issue, saying that hundreds of thousands of Iranians were shouting in the streets, Khun Nawarat. There are pictures and news reports that the Iranian people are demanding that the government take revenge on Donald Trump and Israel for assassinating Ali Khamenei on February 28th through an attack. And there were over 40 casualties among the executive level, both military and administrative, of Iran. The Khamenei family died, the whole family. Only Mohsen survived. Therefore, I see this news as something Israel is playing with, after the Iranian people shouted for revenge.
Yes, I couldn't hear you clearly just now.
Can you hear me now? Yes, I can hear you. It cut out for a moment. So this means this is news that Israel...
Intentionally released, you mean?
Exactly. Because Netanyahu cannot afford for the war to end. Khun Nawarat. Because if the war ends peacefully according to the 14 points, it means the US would lose its influence in the Middle East. How would Israel survive?
Yes.
And these 14 points, which analysts worldwide have analyzed as being impossible to achieve, have about 3 main points. Today, fighting has resumed as usual. First, compensation of 300 billion dollars, which Iran demanded.
Yes.
Second, the return of Iran's frozen assets, which are held in Qatar or in financial institutions in many countries that America has frozen. Third, America must withdraw its troops from the Middle East. Analysts worldwide say it's impossible to comply with these conditions. After two weeks, Donald Trump announced yesterday that the 14-point MOU is considered over, due to Iran's claim that the US withheld information and did not abide by the agreement. The US, in turn, claims Iran attacked cargo ships, especially Qatar's gas tankers, which were sailing near the coast of Oman. Iran said this violated the rules, as they should have sailed towards Iran for Iran to inspect. So, in summary, everyone claims that all parties have violated the 14-point MOU. Therefore, today, day two of the war, the clashes are fierce. The US attacked 80 targets in Iran in 4 cities: Bushehr, Sirik, Bandar Abbas, and another city. Iran also attacked US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, 85 targets. And today, the US attacked Iran again. This means peace is over.
Yes.
Khun Nawarat, but importantly, oil prices have risen by 8%. Khun Nawarat, currently, Brent crude...
Which...
And currently, ships in the Strait of Hormuz have stopped running, as no one dares to pass.
Yes.
Therefore, what the world fears is an economic crisis. Everyone was happy about the 14 points, but that happiness has vanished.
Yes, but sir, from what I see regarding oil, it seems the market is still underestimating the situation, isn't it, General Rangsi? Because earlier, when new events occurred, oil prices rose to almost 120. After this, when it happened, it didn't rise much. Like this time, even though it rose, it's still not 80, it's around 70-something dollars. It rose about 5-6%. It seems people aren't too worried.
Everyone, everyone estimates that this round of clashes will not last long. The White House announced most recently that it will not exceed a month.
Yes.
But Iran says Iran has decided to exchange blows with the US in every way. If the US attacks, they will attack back. Therefore, last time, the White House said two weeks, and it's over. February 28th, Khun Nawarat, do you remember?
It's been extended for 3 months.
And this time, one month, I see it as long. The reason is that neither side can back down. Khun Nawarat. Because if the US complies with the 14 points, I see the US ending its presence in the Middle East immediately, losing influence in the Middle East, which will affect the petrodollar, affect bonds, affect inflation in the US.
Yes.
So, if Iran doesn't push for these 14 points to be successful, how will the current Iranian leadership answer the Iranian people? Because Iran itself has suffered greatly, Khun Nawarat. And their supreme leader, their spiritual leader, has died, and is currently in the midst of his funeral. Therefore, these 14 points that were drafted are, in my view, just buying time. And once both sides have fully rearmed, they will fight again.
Yes.
From now on...
I would like to ask you, sir.
Yes, please.
From now on, I see it this way.
Please, sir.
The chance of a naval battle in the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and also in the Arabian Sea, I think it's very high, Khun Nawarat.
Yes.
Because today, I ask, what about the talk of a ceasefire, or what Khun Nawarat led with, that Iran wants to negotiate? I don't believe it anymore. Because think about it, how many times have they talked? They even signed an MOU and then tore it up. What else can they talk about? And I ask, if you, Khun Nawarat, were the leader of Iran, would you believe Donald Trump? It's hard to believe.
Yes, that's right. Trust has ended. And I ask, how can they negotiate if people don't trust each other? There's no way to talk.
Yes, but actually, what you've analyzed for us sounds exactly like what you analyzed before, that it wouldn't end easily.
And that the agreements wouldn't be accepted.
I analyze based on factual information. If the US stops, what does the US gain? If Iran stops, what does Iran gain? In conclusion, the US suffers greatly if it stops. If Iran gets what it wants from the US, I believe Iran would agree. But I also see that the US will never agree to what Iran wants. Even the money, the 6 trillion dollars they said they would return, but the US has a condition that Iran must buy US agricultural products. Iran says, "What does that have to do with it? It's Iran's money that was seized." So the talks don't end. Just the first point of the 14-point MOU, Khun Nawarat. They said all fronts must stop. And I ask, Khun Nawarat, have we seen a single day of stopping based on the news? The US attacks, then Iran attacks. Iran attacks, then Israel attacks. If they don't attack, Israel attacks. It's pushing like this, isn't it?
Yes.
So they violated the first point, Khun Nawarat.
Yes.
Yes, I would like to ask General Rangsi, what is the chance that this news is true? Is it possible that Israel's intelligence says Iran is preparing to assassinate Mr. Donald Trump? Is it possible? And if Iran really did it, what would be their objective? To destabilize the United States? Or is it truly to take revenge, as their leader was also assassinated? If it were true, I see it this way: today, it is still the funeral ceremony of the spiritual leader.
Emotions can drive it, Khun Nawarat.
Yes.
But Israel took this event and informed Donald Trump. The Iranian people actually announced, go and watch the news, that they must take revenge, they must assassinate. This is a real quote in the news. If you look at the news, they broadcast live from the event, and there were really shouts like this, Khun Nawarat.
Yes.
Which I...
The person speaking is speaking the truth. There are people at the event who are hurt. But whether they will actually do it, I cannot confirm.
But it really happened that hundreds of thousands of people at the funeral shouted together, "We must take revenge, we must take revenge."
Yes.
Because they said that Donald Trump ordered the killing of their spiritual leader.
Yes.
And today, I see it this way, Khun Nawarat. The war has escalated. Because even though the 14-point MOU was signed for 60 days, only 14 days have passed, and they are fighting fiercely, right? And the attacks are even heavier this time.
Yes.
This means both sides have fully rearmed and are fighting again.
Yes.
So, what are we worried about? The global economy will collapse. Because it has dragged on for 3 months, they got a few days of rest, and it's back again, right? Therefore, oil prices will keep rising, inflation will also rise.
Ah, and stocks will fall, gold will fall. It will destroy the global economy, right?
Yes.
This doesn't even include the Russia-Ukraine war that Khun Nawarat needs to follow.
Yes.
If it suddenly explodes.
Yes.
Suddenly, Ukraine sent drones to attack Russian oil facilities, causing Russia to have problems with insufficient oil because the facilities were destroyed. Russia says there are no negotiations. And Russia also sent drones to attack Kyiv. If this situation returns, both Europe and the Middle East are involved. And if, as I said, a naval battle occurs, and ultimately the US decides to block the Strait of Malacca, then China will have to get involved too, Khun Nawarat.
Yes.
Don't think it's impossible. Because why? Both superpowers are cornered.
Yes. Is it considered completely out of control now, General Rangsi?
Let's just say no one trusts anyone anymore, Khun Nawarat.
Because how many times have agreements been violated?
Yes.
And Trump speaks in the same style. "If you want to negotiate, fine." Even electronic signatures can be torn up, and Trump himself said it. He clearly announced that this 14-point MOU is over, and from now on, the US will attack Iran severely.
Yes.
And Iran has retaliated, not afraid, saying, "We will strike back, one blow for one blow." Khun Nawarat, think about what will happen. It's back to the original plan: closing the Strait of Hormuz, as before. And I believe this time it will extend to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Exactly. And the fact that gold prices are behaving so strangely, everyone is confused. Normally, it's a safe asset, right, Khun Nawarat?
Yes, but war...
When there's war, gold should rise. Why is it falling this time?
Khun Nawarat, do you know the reason why gold is falling?
Inflation?
No, no.
No. From what I know, today, as the economy deteriorates and enters a recession globally, central banks of many countries that bought gold to stockpile...
Yes.
...have to release gold.
Yes.
Because the country lacks liquidity.
Because, Khun Nawarat, don't forget that gold is an asset that does not yield any return, except for price fluctuations.
Yes.
Therefore, today, many countries are selling to get cash to inject into their economies, to boost their own liquidity.
This is why gold is falling.
Yes.
Right. But on the other hand, today, the Chinese central bank is buying gold again, starting to hoard gold again because gold prices have fallen.
Yes. Ah.
This is the reason I checked the information, and I believe this is the most likely reason why gold is falling when war breaks out, which contradicts reality. Because in the past, or recently, gold always rose whenever there was war.
Yes.
But this time, it's the opposite.
Yes.
This means that countries are preparing reserves because the war situation shows a trend of being prolonged and affecting the economy, right?
Correct. It's like this: groups of countries that think they will use gold as a Gold Standard or as a backing for their digital currency are hoarding gold, especially the BRICS group and the SCO group. But today, as the economy collapses due to inflation, energy crisis, and war crisis, which no one believes will end easily, countries lack liquidity. Central banks of each country that bought gold have to release gold to get money back to circulate liquidity in the country.
Yes.
Khun Nawarat.
Yes.
But ultimately, when the war ends, I believe gold will return to its all-time high again.
Yes. This means inflation should also come down. They call it two engines.
Yes, it depends on whether the Middle East war subsides, oil prices decrease, and inflation decreases accordingly. But today, it's not like that. Today, they are fighting again, and there is a tendency for it to become more severe, Khun Nawarat.
And I also see it this way: I believe both Iran and the US have learned lessons from the two rounds of fighting. If they start a conflict this time, they will fight until one side is wiped out, because prolonging it is detrimental to both sides.
Yes.
Now, the fatal point of this war, if the Houthis decide to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, I believe it will immediately become a major war.
Yes. How will it affect it, sir?
30% of energy will disappear.
The transportation of raw materials between Europe and Asia will be cut off at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait because the Suez Canal will also be closed.
Yes.
It will have a severe impact. 30% of oil and gas will disappear. This is a big problem. And as I said, America is already thinking that if Iran closes both straits, I believe America will block the Strait of Malacca as well.
Oh my.
To draw China into the war as quickly as possible.
Because if China is in trouble, China will have to talk to Iran.
Yes.
Wow.
Yes.
But do you think other countries will agree? Especially in the Red Sea, if it gets stuck, like Europe. Because NATO is still maintaining a neutral stance, and Mr. Donald Trump is trying to use Greenland to draw NATO into the conflict.
I see it this way.
Khun Nawarat, there are two superpowers, but the decision-makers are the two poles. The first pole is the US, which makes the decision. The second pole is China, which makes the decision. So, the big players of both poles. Therefore, I think if I were the US, I would have to make China suffer. For whatever reason, because if the US gets bogged down in the Middle East with Iran, while China continues to support Iran, and China is not suffering, the US cannot win another war.
No. They cannot defeat Iran. Because the US knows that Iran's allies are always supplying them with weapons. Iran cannot fight a prolonged war with the US at this time, Khun Nawarat.
Especially Iran alone. They have no chance.
Yes.
It's like chickens seeing the feet of snakes, and snakes seeing the feet of chickens. Khun Nawarat knows. They are aware of each other.
Yes. This means there will be a total of 3 straits: Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Strait of Malacca. If these 3 straits are involved in a conflict, then... If Khun Nawarat, if the Houthis close the Suez Canal as well.
Oh my. Only the Panama Canal will be left as a sea route.
The shortcut by sea, right? It will be hot everywhere. The transportation of goods, energy, raw materials, everything will shock the world. If so.
The whole world will collapse. That's why it's predicted that in 2570, there will be a complete World War III.
And Khun Nawarat, you need to watch.
Suddenly, why are the South Korean and Japanese governments joining hands to strengthen their cooperation?
Yes. This is a contract. Why did Taiwan suddenly announce it is ready for war?
Yes.
Why did the four major powers have to talk to Kim Jong-un? I believe these people are watching, they are predicting what will happen, hence these unusual movements, Khun Nawarat.
Yes.
Why did China suddenly invite Cambodia and will invite us in the middle of this month to talk? Because I believe China knows that if the war blocks the straits, it will definitely come to this region. Therefore, China does not want the US to use countries in this region as satellites for setting up bases, whether for naval supply or for setting up air bases or missile bases. And the US also knows that if the US wants to blockade China, the US must use countries in Southeast Asia as satellites. And now, Khun Nawarat, you see that South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines are clear US allies.
Yes.
Because Laos and Vietnam are clearly allies of China and Russia. Especially today, the US is trying to talk to Bangladesh to use St. Martin's Island in the Bay of Bengal. But China has already set up a port there, at the port of Ream, a deep-water port where they can dock their ships. Today, Russia has signed an MOU with Myanmar to develop the Dawei port because the Strait of Malacca is China's Achilles' heel.
Yes.
Therefore, China needs to find an outlet to the sea. Because they will build a railway from the south, from Yunnan, down to connect with the port of Ream, which China is now operating. Why did China set up a naval base in Sihanoukville, Cambodia, and bring two frigates?
Some people don't understand. They think China is bringing these ships to help Cambodia. China brought these two frigates to defend against the US blocking the Strait of Malacca.
Khun Nawarat, this is a big deal for China. Because today, China has completed building 3 aircraft carriers, and the 4th is expected to be completed by the end of this year or early next year.
Yes.
Which will have to fight with the US Seventh Fleet in the Indo-Pacific region.
Yes. Exactly. The Indo-Pacific strategy.
Yes. Today, China's 3 aircraft carriers are ready to clash with the US in the Pacific.
Yes. Today, China and Russia have sent 40 submarines and surface ships into the Indian Ocean. Khun Nawarat. Because what China fears most is being blocked at the Strait of Malacca.
Yes.
Don't think Donald Trump wouldn't dare to do it.
That would cut off their trade lifeline. China's economy would also suffer greatly. They say the Suez Canal is a passage for goods from Asia to Europe, Europe to Asia.
Yes.
Closing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz, they say the shipping volume is not as much as the Strait of Malacca. These two straits.
Yes.
And 80% of the energy and raw materials coming to China.
80% must pass through the Strait of Malacca.
Yes.
That's why there's news about why China has a plan to blockade Taiwan. Because China knows that TSMC, Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturer that supplies the US, 80% of its production is in Taiwan, Khun Nawarat.
Yes.
If China blockades Taiwan, chips cannot get out, and the US will be in trouble. But if the US blocks the Strait of Malacca, China will also be in trouble.
Yes. It's like a power negotiation.
It's like each side holding cards, waiting to see who plays which card.
Khun Nawarat, do you see why I have always analyzed that the Middle East war will never end? But they fight and negotiate. And when they can rearm, they fight again.
Yes.
Because if the US loses its military influence, the dollar and bonds will collapse immediately, Khun Nawarat. This is the heart of the US, the heart of its economy. It will spread to what? The stock market, Wall Street.
Yes.
The futures market for gold, the futures market for oil, everything. Khun Nawarat, the stakes this time are extremely high.
Yes. I would like to ask you, sir, what will be the key trigger that makes Mr. Donald Trump, in simple terms, crazy enough to do this? That is, to close both the Red Sea and the Strait of Malacca. Meaning, if Iran closes the Red Sea, then it's the Strait of Malacca.
If Iran and the Houthis decide to permanently close the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, I believe the US will definitely block the Strait of Malacca.
Yes.
Because, no matter what, closing the Strait of Malacca forces China to join Iran.
Yes.
Which is likely what the US wants. China will have to negotiate with Iran.
Yes. Or China will not agree.
It depends on President Xi Jinping and his planning team. What will they do?
Yes. They should be able to read the game, right, sir?
Correct. That's why I've said for a long time that China ordered the production of 1 million drones since the beginning of 2566, to be completed this year. Which is 6 months left, 1 million drones, Khun Nawarat. Because China owns the most drones in the world today. Why? Because China has 80% of rare earth elements in its hands.
Yes.
These things, China is accelerating production. Accelerating drone production, accelerating missile production. Because China sees that in 2570, a major war is coming, it's certain. Because, Khun Nawarat, don't forget that the US has been in power for 80 years. I ask, will the US really accept being number 2?
Yes.
Right? Because people, if there's no other option, like Japan being bombed by the atomic bomb or Hitler entering Berlin, no one will give up. We have seen many major wars. In the end, the supreme leader must meet their end for it to end, like Saddam Hussein being captured in Iraq.
Yes.
Right.
Yes. Oh my, we are thinking that the war that many people said would end on July 4th, US Independence Day, would be over by now. But it has passed Independence Day, and it is about to enter the third quarter. Sir, I cannot imagine how this will conclude. Because the 14 points that were agreed upon and the MOU that was signed have already been torn up. This means both sides do not agree. What else can bring them to the negotiating table, General Rangsi? We still hope that it will be peaceful through negotiations. Ultimately, the war can only end, as you said, if one side loses, or through negotiation.
It's like this: I ask, the 300 billion dollars that Iran is in the MOU, who will pay it? And the US has already said that this 300 billion dollars will not be given.
Yes.
Meaning it will be invested in Iran. Iran says this is not compensation. It's like they are interfering with their economy. Because if you invest in a country, you expect a return, right? They are not giving it. It's an investment. The 12 billion or 24 billion dollars that were seized, they said it must be used to buy US goods. Just these two points, regarding money. Iran also needs money to rebuild the country from the sanctions. In conclusion, from what I've heard, Iran gets nothing.
Yes.
And they have already stated that if these matters cannot be discussed, then other issues, such as stopping nuclear development, should not be discussed. And I ask, what else is there to discuss today? And the clashes over the past two days, Khun Nawarat, you said they were more severe than the fighting three months ago. They are fighting at full capacity now. And today, no one is listening to anyone. Because Iran has just issued a statement in response, saying that whatever the US does to Iran, Iran will do the same to the US. And today, ships have stopped running in the Strait of Hormuz, Khun Nawarat.
Yes.
So everything is back to the way it was. Sir, I would like to ask General Rangsi about the fuel reserves of each country. How do you assess the fuel reserves of the US and Israel? Because Israel also has issues, as it is being blocked from exporting oil and is prevented from importing anything.
From what I know for sure, the US oil reserves will run out in August.
Yes.
The oil reserves of each country, which are for 60 or 90 days, I believe will run out by the end of this month.
Yes.
July.
Yes.
Because we can calculate it. We can calculate that since the Strait of Hormuz opened, I believe no more than 300 oil tankers have passed. Let's say Thailand uses 1 million barrels per day, Khun Nawarat. The fact that only 2 ships passed means they can last for 2 days.
Yes.
Because we use 1 million barrels per day, just oil, not including... And countries that are larger than us, Khun Nawarat, how many million barrels do they use per day? Like the US, they say about 20 or 15 million barrels per day, if I remember correctly, 15 or 20 million barrels. China is also around that.
Yes.
And if it's 20 million barrels, it requires about 10 tankers per day.
And the number that passed is estimated at about 300 ships, but it's distributed worldwide, not sent to one country. And if the oil reserves have been used since February 28th, what month is it now? July. April, May, three and a half months, four months. And in the fourth month, each country's oil reserves are only 60 to 90 days. For example, we have 60 days.
But we have adjusted the figure to 90 days. From now on, 90 days of oil reserves. The extra 30 days we just adjusted are just numbers, but we only have 60 days of actual oil.
Yes.
Oil reserves. Each country uses oil reserves. I think at least one month is needed. Therefore, they say that by the end of July, many countries will have depleted their oil reserves. But America has calculated that its reserves will run out in August.
Yes.
Here.
Even though America can produce its own oil. America may have a lot of oil, the shale oil, right? What is it called? Oil from rock. But in terms of production, the US cannot produce enough for domestic consumption. The US also needs to import.
Yes.
And imports from the Middle East. So there are problems worldwide.
Yes.
So I ask, if you, Khun Nawarat, were the leader of Iran today, and it has come to this, how do you think the Iranian leader would agree to talk to the US?
There's almost no chance, I tell you.
Yes.
And if I were China or Russia, I would push Iran to fight against the US, no matter what. Whether by sending weapons or anything else. Because why? Because if the US gets bogged down in the Middle East, China can breathe easier, and Russia can crush Ukraine more easily.
Yes.
But if I were the US, I would have to draw China in.
Yes.
Because I believe that today, with the US being attacked by drones in Moscow, I believe the US also wants Russia to be stuck in Ukraine.
Ah, the wars are all connected. It's a game.
This is called the principle of war, Khun Nawarat. Spread the enemy's forces as much as possible. Because resistance will be lighter.
Because everyone is engaged in conflict, right?
Yes.
So, if America truly goes to war with China, and China is engaged in conflict in the South China Sea, then China will have difficulty helping Iran.
Yes.
Or helping Russia, because China and North Korea must also protect their own countries.
Yes. But listening to your analysis, it seems you have a certain belief that in 2570, which is next year, a major war will occur. Not World War III, but a major war.
It's not necessary to consider it as a future event. It's already happening. This kind of fighting, this kind of war, is already a world war. But it will be complete when China fully joins.
Before that, we saw it as just the US. That's already dangerous. If China joins, won't all the major powers be involved?
Khun Nawarat, study the history of World War II. In World War II, there were giant countries fighting each other. Germany fought against Britain, France, and their allies. Germany had Italy as an ally in Europe. Japan was alone, attacking everywhere, right? And then they clashed with British and French troops in Asia. But when the attack on Pearl Harbor happened, America fully entered the war.
Yes.
This is similar. Today, Khun Nawarat, you see Russia fighting Ukraine and NATO.
Yes.
The US and Israel are fighting Iran. And if the US blocks the strait, the US will fight China. Then it will be a "Perfect World War III."
Yes.
And it will repeat the same pattern, Khun Nawarat. Fighting mainly in Asia and Europe. It's the same battlefield as World War II, Khun Nawarat.
Yes.
But the players are new.
Because in World War II, China and Russia were with the Allies, right? Germany and Japan were with the Axis powers. But now it's switched. Germany and Japan are with the US. China and Russia are on the opposite side of the US. So the alliances have changed from World War II.
Yes. But the Wall Street Journal also made an observation, General Rangsi. They said that if the assassination of Mr. Donald Trump is true news, it would be like changing the game of war.
I see it this way.
Yes.
I think Israel took the words of the Iranian people, shouting in the streets at Khamenei's funeral, as a reason to fully draw the US in. And the US might have known.
Oh, you're going to kill their leader? Then they have to retaliate severely. I think this is more like Israel pushing the ball, Khun Nawarat.
Oh, because they claim intelligence. Sir, they claim intelligence.
No need for intelligence. The whole world heard.
Okay.
That the Iranian people shouted, "We must take revenge, we must assassinate Donald Trump, just as they assassinated our leader."
Yes.
If Israel didn't have this, this isn't a secret. But I think Israel is using this as a ball to push, and as a reason to make the US attack or pass through Iran decisively.
Using the excuse that they are going to kill the highest leader of the US.
Yes. But looking at Iran's capabilities, if the US has such tight security and such extensive protection, what are the chances of it happening, sir?
Khun Nawarat, do you see the reality?
Ah, Khun Nawarat, do you see? China just fired a missile from a submarine. This missile reached US territory. And Khun Nawarat, don't forget, it's hypersonic. This missile travels at Mach 20.
Yes.
It's real, Khun Nawarat.
Yes.
So, if someone were to launch 20 of these missiles at the US, it could happen. Because people, I believe patience has its limits. If it really comes to a fight to the death, and in the past, the US mainland has never been attacked. But this time, both Putin and other leaders have said many times that if a full-scale World War III occurs, don't think the US mainland will be safe.
So, if it really happens, Khun Nawarat, it's a big problem.
Yes.
Whether it can be defended or not, because the US itself has ordered its defense readiness to be raised.
Yes.
To be able to intercept these missiles. Because hypersonic, Mach 20, is a hypersonic missile that is called a dive missile. It goes up into the atmosphere, and when the GPS locks on, it dives at a 90-degree angle, Khun Nawarat.
Yes.
And this.
Yes.
They have tested it to show that they have it.
Yes. Therefore, anything can happen like this.
Yes.
And Khun Nawarat, think about it. If this continues, Khun Nawarat, will the world enter a Great Depression? Because today, everyone is confident that the economy is devastated.
Yes.
Worldwide. It's not just one country.
Yes. Oh my, if so, AI can't help either, right, sir? Because the IMF has revised its forecast for the global economy this year from 3.0 to 3.1. They say it's because of AI, the vibrancy of AI is helping the economy. Now, attention is focused on AI. The war may have only a minor impact on investment, sir.
If oil is scarce, raw materials are scarce, I ask, is that real?
Yes.
What I said. If from now on, we are talking, and we see the attacks of the two countries happening for real, and they are truly severe. And today, ships are not running in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is declared closed, what will happen?
Yes.
Well, AI is AI, right?
Yes.
Because energy is scarce. Global oil reserves are not abundant. Because, don't forget, it started on February 28th.
Yes.
Right? And today, after only two days of fighting, oil has risen by 8%. And it will go back to 100 dollars again. You think it's impossible, Khun Nawarat? I believe once the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is closed, we will see 120 dollars.
Yes.
Exactly as before. This time, it's a big problem. And it's back to the point where each country's oil reserves are about to run out, Khun Nawarat.
Yes. Sir, I would like to ask, what will be the trigger that makes Iran and the Houthis join hands and decide to close the Red Sea?
The US continues to attack.
Yes. Even though it was last year.
Correct. Like last time, when they fought fiercely, Iran announced it would close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the Houthis also closed it. And then the US requested negotiations, Khun Nawarat.
Yes.
Because the US knows that if the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is closed, Europe will also be affected, Khun Nawarat. Because Europe relies on the Suez Canal to pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to reach Asia.
Yes.
This makes it difficult for transportation if the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is closed.
You have to go around the Cape of Good Hope, right?
Yes.
Which takes about 10 days.
Yes. Oh, if so, NATO must also get involved.
Yes, that's what I'm saying. If NATO gets involved, do you think Donald Trump wouldn't dare to block the Strait of Malacca?
Yes.
So, if Malacca is blocked, and China gets involved, what happens?
Yes.
I ask, in this situation, which country will give up? It will have to drag everyone in.
This is what is frightening.
Yes.
And today, Khun Nawarat, believe me, what percentage of people in the world believe that negotiations between Iran and the US will happen and truly stop the conflict? I am one of them. I don't believe it anymore. Because we have seen it happen more than 10 times.
Foreign media reported 39 times that Mr. Trump has gone back and forth.
Yes. If we still believe, then you and I must be eating grass instead of rice. Right? Because it's so obvious. You and I are in the same situation. Sir, listening to you, it's headache-inducing. I don't know how to analyze the direction anymore, because Mr. Trump can change his mind at any time.
No, it's not difficult to analyze, Khun Nawarat. Ultimately, I believe there will be a war, and one side must lose. The other superpower must die.
Yes.
From now on, Khun Nawarat, it's unavoidable. War. Believe me.
Oh, you believe it will be a decisive battle. You believe they cannot negotiate.
I told you, if you prolong it, both sides will be destroyed.
Yes.
If I were one of the parties, I would say let's fight to the end. Let's settle it. One side must survive.
So, Khun Nawarat, I ask you, if you were the decision-maker for either party, would you be willing to die? Would you be willing to die together? If it drags on like this, both will die, Khun Nawarat.
Yes.
But if they fight to the end, I believe the superpower must survive.
Yes.
The chance of survival is likely to be with the superpower?
No, it's not just the US and Iran. It's not just the US and Iran. I'm telling you, China cannot afford to lose the Middle East, just as China cannot afford to lose Thailand and Cambodia. Because it's a strategic issue, Khun Nawarat. I ask you, if China loses Iran, and the US gains full influence in the Middle East, do you think China will suffer, Khun Nawarat?
Because China relies heavily on oil from the Middle East.
Yes.
Right? So, what if the US says they won't send oil to China? What then?
Yes.
Right?
Yes.
Khun Nawarat, don't forget that today, the two superpowers are fighting, and it's all connected. That's why this war is called a hybrid warfare, including information warfare, economic warfare, and armed warfare. But the winner will be determined by economic warfare this time, unlike World War II, Khun Nawarat.
Whoever's economy collapses first loses. But for the economy to collapse, it must start with armed warfare.
Yes.
If you win the armed warfare, you can dictate strategy. You can control global strategy in terms of energy, rare minerals, and everything else. The other side will surely collapse.
Yes.
It's different.
Yes. In World War II, you won or lost based on weapons.
Yes.
But in World War III, you will win or lose based on the economy. But armed warfare will determine it, causing the economic warfare to collapse.
Yes. If so, General Rangsi, who will be more resilient, the US or Iran?
I cannot answer that because, Khun Nawarat, these two pairs are equally matched this time. It's not like the Axis and Allies in World War II.
Yes.
This round is very close. The economy is close, weapons are close. This time it depends on what, right? It depends on the big decision. Who strikes first, who fights continuously, who dares to pour in all their strength. I believe that person will win. But if you hesitate, you lose this round. Because no matter what the time is, doing business is the same. If you are close, whoever decides first, whoever moves first, that person has an advantage and a high chance of winning. Because they can't keep up, if it's close. It's not a gap like the Cold War or the time of the Assassins. This round, I say it's very difficult to answer, but I am still confident that in the end, there will be someone who loses and someone who wins. That's how the world ends, all this chaos. It will definitely be a use of force. Correct, it is a use of force that determines the economy of the two superpowers. If you lose your gold, your weapons, your economy collapses, you are finished. But I don't believe in using nuclear weapons. No country dares to use nuclear weapons. I still believe that. So, does that mean the United States must invade and use land forces? Military land forces. It depends on whether Trump dares to make a decision. Because destroying it with missiles doesn't allow you to occupy territory. But if possible, if you destroy the strategic points with missiles and drones without using land forces, because land forces are all scared this round. Why? Don't forget, a drone hits a missile in the middle of the circle. You die, tens of thousands. Right? Therefore, strategic weapons this round determine victory. I see it as jumping missiles. But this time, do you dare to fire strategically? The word "strategically" doesn't mean firing casually like this. It means you play with nuclear power plants, you play with dams, you play with oil refineries. That kind of thing is a decisive blow. For example, if the Chinese side dares to fire into the Wall Street, dares to fire into the Pentagon, that's a decisive blow. That is strategic destruction. Or the United States dares to fire into the port. Yes. Sir, someone is asking, Mr. Wattana, they say, "Oh, what preparations are being made? Is Thailand still using the policy of straddling two boats as usual?" This round, I am confident that there is no way we will do like World War II. Why? Because don't forget that today the two superpowers are very close. You go and be a Bunsen burner with a gas stove. You will face missiles from both sides. You have to create strategic balance. This means one, we must not get involved in the war. The word "not involved in the war" doesn't mean you let America refuel ships in Krabi or Songkhla or Rayong, or let China bring ships to refuel in our country, right? We must not be involved, we must not get involved in any fighting, or use our country to get involved in their fighting. But Mr. Wattana, I still believe that when they fight, it will take time. And if two poles fight, it will be full-scale, at least 3, not 2-3 months. Therefore, our country's strength, I told you, with new thinking, let our country be Farm Thailand. Be food. Exactly. And especially focus on food preservation, focus on processing. Because when they fight, Mr. Wattana, food must be stored for a long time. And the food must be edible. It's not like, oh, you have to make curry, make a pot. It's not like that. It's to survive, right? But the nutritional value must be complete. We have to return to being Farm Thailand. Our Prime Minister must be the CEO of Farm Thailand. Our Minister of Commerce must be the head of Marketing for Farm Thailand. Our Minister of Agriculture must be the head of the farmers of Farm Thailand. The millions of rai of land, you must quickly consider where to plant, what to plant. Military engineering units, mobile development units, irrigation departments must look at water management. And you must use agricultural drones, you must use machinery, you must bring the unemployed back to the agricultural sector. Processing plants, you must sit and think about what you will do, because some fruits have a short shelf life. If you process them, they will last for many more months. Imagine the situation, when they fight, if you can make it Farm Thailand, you can take this food. To barter, Mr. Wattana. Barter for oil, even. We will have an immediate advantage. Oh, on that day, rice will be equal to oil. You have no oil, you die. You have no rice or food to eat, you die too. And you must divide into zones, which areas are for growing fast-growing food like vegetables. Like kale, bok choy, any vegetables, plant them in one zone. And which areas will grow rice, plant them in one zone. Fruits with a long shelf life, maybe you have to stop first, use the existing trees first. But you must accelerate, do these things, the fast-growing ones. You must abandon the idea of balancing like bamboo bending in the wind. You will be hit by missiles this round. It's not possible. The world has changed completely, Mr. Wattana. And we must stop thinking that we should not get involved, because our country does not have the capacity. We don't have the capacity to fight with such superpowers. But our borders, our sovereignty, and the Bunsen burner, we must continue to crush it. We want them to play. Sometimes when there is a war, the Bunsen burner might play with us, which we cannot accept. Same with Myanmar, whether it's the Red Wa or whatever, we must not make our country a refuge if Myanmar is defeated by minority groups. In short, we must stay away from all wars, both major wars and minor wars. Defend ourselves and be useful, which is what? Be a food production source. But a real source, not just talk. I am confident that it can be done. Thailand has abundant water. Both drones and harvesting machinery. And I tell you, the two superpowers will come to court you. You will be the most beautiful woman in World War III. But may I ask you, sir, if there is a war, we don't know what to call it, in 2027, which you mentioned, because you said it has entered World War III. Let's just say a major war will occur next year. How long will this period be? Because I told you, if it's a full-scale clash, I give it 3 years. I'm looking at the weapons. The second round of war took 5 years, but this round, I believe the weapons are accurate, powerful, and fast. I give it 3 years. I'm thinking in a worst-case scenario, 3 years. Because I'm calculating from the weapons. And I believe it's difficult for people to land on shore. No one dares, Mr. Wattana. Even America said it would occupy an island, dare to go up, really? You have to try to die to go up. Because nowadays, a drone hits, a Ka-52 drone. You know how accurate it is. So the pattern will be economic pressure? It is to destroy strategic points to paralyze the other side economically. Cut off sea routes for transportation. Like Iran firing at cargo ships in Hormuz. But don't forget, the weapons used are not bomber planes, Mr. Wattana. It's drones. Nowadays, they order drones to crash into the engine room. You see many ships hit? It's to make the engine fail. And seize the goods. It's looting, but not like pirate looting. A drone hits, boom. The ship can't move, so they go up and seize the goods. They will play like this, cutting off supply routes. Therefore, we ourselves must have our trump cards. If we are a food source, as I said, the government must define zoning. Where to plant fast-growing crops that are edible within 15 days, 30 days. Even bean sprouts have meaning, Mr. Wattana. If you can grow bean sprouts, you can make a salad, stir-fry them. Or rice, you have to plant with new technology, give it water, and you have to get water out of the soil. You might have to dig a lot. This round, where there is a water shortage, you must drill for water. And you must use drones, solar power, national factories must be established because you must reduce production costs and increase yield per rai. If you can produce food to this extent, Mr. Wattana, you can control inflation in the country. Because the cost of goods is cheap. And you might take this food to barter for what? Solar power. Because don't forget, when they fight, they bomb. Power plants are finished. But if you have solar power, you can still survive. Because Thailand is considered to be in Zone A, with 8 hours of sunshine per day, on average. We are in Zone A for solar power. From now on, we don't know what will happen, sir. You say there's a chance it will escalate or end quickly. But I would like you, Mr. Rangsi, to give some observations to us investors about the Middle East situation. What should we monitor from now on? We will see how far the war between Iran and the United States will expand. If it expands, meaning they fight fiercely and continuously, as the White House said, not more than 1 month. Yes, I told you, whenever Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, it's over. A naval battle of great importance will occur. And I don't want it to spread to the Red Sea, I don't want it to spread to the Gulf of Thailand. From now on, we must observe whether the war is escalating. Yes. Because today, don't forget, the United States attacked, entered 4-5 cities in Iran. Iran is also trying to destroy as many US bases as possible. After the second round of destruction, for the third round, they will bomb without restraint. And importantly, today Iran has started attacking Qatar's LNG carriers, haven't you seen, Mr. Nu? Don't forget that Qatar is the number 1 LNG exporter in this region. Qatar has said that they are temporarily stopping repairs at the LNG production plant, the oil production plant, because they are afraid of the third round. And I believe Iran will finish attacking oil facilities and countries that host US bases. If that happens, Mr. A, think about what will happen. And observe that if ships cannot pass through Hormuz, the energy crisis will be the biggest crisis in the world. Many countries will run out of oil reserves. What will happen? Very clear, Mr. Rangsi, for what you have analyzed and connected for us. Actually, what you analyzed for us before about the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. If it is closed, the connection will return. Because what the United States does not want to happen is that they are the only ones to suffer. So they are trying to bring China in, and they will have to be responsible, including NATO. So various games are being created to pressure them, like the UK, like Greenland, trying to say that NATO must help. If they help, there will be consequences. If they don't help, there will be consequences. Even China, if they don't become a mediator, they might be in trouble up to the Strait of Malacca. But what you analyzed is that 2027, next year, is the most challenging year. I wish nothing bad happens. From now on, we have to watch, as you said. No one wants it to happen, Mr. Wattana. Yes. But we cannot negotiate anything. We have to prepare to receive the consequences of their actions. How do we survive? How do small countries survive? We, you and I, are in the same fate. You live in the same country as me. Where can we go? Yes, as you said, our bargaining power in terms of military is definitely not there. But in terms of being full, surviving, that's about food. We have a chance to create bargaining power. And we are an abundant land. And I am confident that if we can make it Farm Thailand, and we sell it to both sides, we don't choose. No one will attack you. Who wants to destroy their own food source? I just ask that. Yes, they have to rely on us. Yes. Very clear, Mr. Rangsi. Thank you very much for analyzing for the chat audience today. Thank you very much. Goodbye. Goodbye, Mr. Wattana. Goodbye, viewers at home. Goodbye. Goodbye.