Transcription
It is 10 years since the EU referendum vote in June. An exciting anniversary. Ben, do you have any plans?
>> Yeah, I'll be doing >> any celebrations. >> Yeah, I'll be doing lots. I'll be having massive parties. I'll be going No. >> What were you doing? Do you remember what you were doing on the uh day or the night of the referendum?
>> Oh my god. I remember I remember that day quite well. Um, it was a sunny day in rural North Yorkshire. Um, as you do and living on a farm at the time, I cycled.
>> God, why is this so idilic? >> It was the >> Who knew remain England was so idilic? If only we Oh, it did vote remain. Harriate did vote remain, didn't it? Yeah. Um, I was cycling to the polling station, a wooden community hall built 10 or so years ago.
>> Never such innocence again. >> Yeah. went with my my my very innocence on my red bike which I think was far too small for me at the time. I was 20 uh years of age and I went in and being the nosy itis was um because I'm Brit and yeah, you just have to be the be that kind of person knows after that. What's turnout like? And they said it's the highest we've ever seen. It's the best we've ever seen. And this was like a village. This was a little village of a few hundred people. and turn out turnout had never ever been something like that in their lives. And the these are aging people and the last time they saw something like this was, you know, decades ago, half a century ago, under the age of Callahan or Thatcher or whoever.
Um, it really was we we do not appreciate how many people turned out in that referendum gap. Yes, a 1 point something million gap between remain and leave, but some towns, particularly leaveheavy cities such as Stoke on Trent, saw such a high turnout that they've never seen anything like it since. And that in general elections coming out for Boris Johnson, coming out for Theresa May, turnout never returned to that. And I have to say now with the rise of reform, um I wonder those votes that came out for leave and have since never come out again, maybe they might be coming out for reform and we might be surprised by the level of turnout seen in some of these uh leave backing cities.
>> Yeah, that's what I I'm really interested in because reform have this strategy of trying to get non- voters out for them, don't they? And we used to make fun of that strategy when Ed Milliban said it was said it was one of his plans for for winning power back when he was Labour leader in opposition. Um, but reform sort of have a have a shot at that given that there was such a big spike in turnout during the leave uh leave vote in the EU referendum because it could be voters of similar values.
>> Exactly. It's not just voters of similar values. It's voters of similar well yeah is values. So I was about to say resentments that also it's also values. It's a feeling that you have been ignored. You've been lied to. I said this on a previous podcast. The reform strategy is to take the marked register or rather find those households with no voters registered and not necessarily bombard them with literature but do something that no other party with a limited number of activists would do, which is reach out to them, which is say to them, you have been ignored. And these voters who have been ignored by campaigns who rely on voters will agree. You have been ignored. You have been lied to. blah blah blah blah blah join reform sign up to reform get our mailing and vote and what we saw in Ronorn is loads of places since the Ronorn bi-election if you look at the electoral role there um I don't think this data was necessarily public you are finding so many households that were previously uh no elector registered at this address suddenly three or four of them yes they're they're real voters they're just new voters signed up by reform because they are the ones taking in their eyes taking the fight back And I fear, you know, turnout in in elections now, you know, it is falling in some areas, it's rising in others. Where reform win council bi-elections, turnout ever stays the same on where it was in the council election or it goes up a little bit, which is not normal because in council bi-elections, it's meant to fall through the floor. And just a point on the Greens who are also seeing a a relative surge under Zach Palansky. I just want to get this in. By the way, Caroline Lucas never had the public um awareness of her as Zach Palansky does now. Something we just don't appreciate that Palansky has a greater profile than even Caroline Lucas did. The Greens who are seeing a similar similar surge when they win council bi-elections, turnout doesn't go the same way as it does for reform. it actually falls like like like all the other parties. It's only among in reformheavy areas that turnout is staying the same or going up. It's a real new phenomenon that we just haven't seen in recent decades.
>> That's fascinating. So, it is really really instructive to look back on this vote. But let's also look at attitudes now towards Brexit because they have changed remarkably over the decade, haven't they? In terms of how the British public see Brexit and our relationship with the EU. But I've always felt when I've looked at these stats, which I used quite a lot, particularly from people on the pro-EU side, um that that appetite still isn't there to sort of reitigate all of those battles about the return of free movement, re-entering the single market, rejoining the customs union even.
>> Yeah, it was exhausting. I remember that it was before I became a new statesman journalist. I was just set trying trying it out with so many different Well, I was a student and then I became a load of things. Um, and I So different days, different days. But I call them the Brexit wars because it was so many parliamentary battles. John Burko may making performative statements and so on and so forth. And ah, it's just not it wasn't politics at its best actually. I really don't think but but the polling at the time it was always like tradeoffs. Would you rather have free movement if it meant economic security or would you be willing to lose free movement even though it might hurt economic security or capacity? And at the start since the leave vote, yes, the academics who who say should be justified in saying it, the leave vote was primarily a consequence of control over immigration and that hasn't necessarily gone away. It's just morphed into different movements in the form of reform and others. But it but it was like it feels like a fleeting feels like it feels like a feting. If you want to talk about moving back to Europe, people won't necessarily think ah open borders again. Although it might change with a campaign. you look at the polling um on rejoin or stay out. You do I think I I have I can't find a single poll which shows staying out ahead of rejoin.
>> Yeah. >> Um, but the margins are massively different. Some polls have rejoin ahead by 10 to 20 to sometimes even 30 points. It it's ridiculous. It reminds me of 2009 and 2010 where polls had leave leave the EU ahead of stay in at 30 to 40 points because it's such a far removed uh position that people aren't seriously giving it. But something to bear in mind is this. Don't get complacent to those of a pro remain bent to a pro- rejoin bent rather. Do not get complacent about these opinion polls saying that rejoin is far out ahead. There are assumptions put in the polling numbers that make allow you know a bit unwieldy. Okay. So we know x million leave voters and to a degree a few million remain voters have died. Yes. The advantages towards remain there. Yes. If you just look at those that voted in the referendum remain has a slight advantage. True. Okay. Fine. What about those who didn't vote?
>> You have some polls which put the percentage of them who would turn out, those that didn't vote, who would turn out emphatically in favor of rejoin, but it's ve it's it's it varies significantly. Um, and you know, some far out ahead and some only marginally ahead. This is where the uncertainty is. are those that didn't vote are those who have not been shaped by the Brexit wars in in the same way Alistister Campbell has are they as loyal to this European flag and this idea that to be progressive is to be European as well I don't know the longer Britain is away from Europe the longer Britain does not have EU membership that link will go with it or it will become this new fantasy fetish that uh people will associate identities are transient.
>> There's no guarantee of everything. I'm I'm so sorry that is such a polling copout. There is no guarantee of everything. But it's true that to say that Britain is ready to rejoin, not a guarantee. Customs union though, things for cost of living relief uh or anything that that can be written up, dressed up in terms of deals and whatnot to alleviate the cost of living. Most Britons will wear that. Most Britons will approve of that. And nevertheless, despite all of these nuances laid out by you, Ben, the fact that the British public seems to have warmed to the EU since the referendum vote certainly informs Labour politicians, Karma um and Labor officials because they are now quite confident about talking about what has gone wrong because of Brexit and what they want to fix. I mean, it used to there used to be a time when they were quite squeamish about talking about it, but now they're not so much. I mean, I I joined Nick Thomas Simmons, the EU relations minister, in Brussels for an interview fairly recently, and it really struck me, and I wrote this in in the interview, that this Europe, >> Brussels, was Labour's new comfort zone >> in a in a time where it doesn't really have very many others >> because he was he was, you know, confident about talking about what had gone wrong since since Brexit and what Labor should change and, you know, warming relations with the EU, this uh Brexit reset. Um, but also he was happy to make jokes about things like the Brexit tackle, which is a sort of self-defeating tackle where you sort of clatter someone and yourself out of the game. So he he mentioned that in a speech that he was doing about the EU reset. And it just strikes me that they're just much more confident about talking about this than they used to be. But if you look at the actual meat of what they are trying to negotiate, like you say, the material impact on the British public is not obvious. So you the main thing is the food and animal product agreement. um in order to reduce red tape on the trade of these kind of goods. um it's supposed to reduce costs for businesses in terms of you know bureaucracy and therefore people's shopping bills eventually. But that's only slated to be struck in 2027. And experts who know far more about this than I do say that that's actually a very ambitious timeline in itself. So we're really unlikely to see the impact on prices come through anytime soon. Probably not by the next election. And I put that to to Thomas Simmons. He didn't deny it. Um, so really, you know, any tangible impact from Britain creeping closer to the EU under Labour's negotiations doesn't seem clear. Um, despite the fact that, you know, Labour has this more confident rhetoric and a and a greater closeness to to the EU than it's had before.
>> My my view is this, the signal of reform's rise right now, Faraj's success as the the leading figure of the riot is not because of immigration. It's not because of boats crossing crossing the channel. It is because of the cost of living. If there was no issue with the cost of living if people's, you know, lives uh were were notably more more more financially re relieving than they are now. Um Farad would still be making noise about immigration as he would. He would still get a hearing. Let's not forget Britain's by and large are you know more more skeptical of immigration than they are they are uh enamored with it. But um it wouldn't be as great. It wouldn't be as doineering. Star wouldn't be written off as much as he is now.
>> Well, we don't know actually, but it wouldn't be as strong as salient an issue. >> Yeah. Yeah. And I I have to wonder in by 2027, I I don't know a labor activist that is um dead against one day rejoining Europe, one day rejoining the European Union. But so many Labor activists and MPs that I know who are of this view say not now. not now would get absolutely crucified. It's better to do it slowly slowly. It's it's the biggest dog whistle we've seen on the so-called center left of British politics ever. It's it's that we need closer relations with Europe. Just not now. Just a little bit of this. All right. And I don't think it's irritating. I I actually think it's working. I have to say of all war strategies, it's working because it's not saying to people who voted leave >> that you are being betrayed, you're being lied to, you are being let down. And Farage, I think, who is obviously the most successful British politician of I think this century to be honest with you. Um, I hope he's at the top of our right-wing power list. Politico just released something. He's sixth most popular world leader and Star's 10th. Um, but I I think he knows that going hard on Europe will not deal the dividend sword. He should go hard on migration and the cost of living and stick at it. You know, Andrea Jenkins wanted to go hard on wind farms and wind turbines. That that doesn't deal as much as it much as uh much as you hope. That's comfort for your base. And by base, I mean your activists, not your voters.
>> No, exactly. I think Labor officials were quite struck by the fact that when they signed this common understanding with the EU shortly after they came into power could have been a risk for them. You know, don't forget that it wasn't so long ago where Labour politician when Labour politicians were quite squeamish about talking about Europe and get Brexit, make Brexit work was their slogan and it was all a bit like, oh, we we're a bit apprehensive about talking about this. When they signed that that um agreement at the beginning of their time in power, they were struck that Nigel Farage, I think he was on holiday in France, didn't come back from from his holiday, didn't you know, say a huge amount about it. And we've no we've noticed since then actually, haven't we, Ben, that he hasn't really spoken a great deal about Europe and Brexit uh in those terms since then.
>> No, he's he's he's to reiterate, he's a strategist. He knows it. I think he actually lost his strategy mojo during COVID when he thought going hard on uh lockdown just misread the public mood. It spoke to a certain kind of voter. I'm not saying the conspiracy theorist voter, but the kind of voter who was dead against that sort of thing. And at the time I also thought him going in his his 4x4 around to all these hotels, these migrant hotels again misread the public move. But you know what? It's dealt dividends in the long run >> because he feels like he's been he was calling out long ago. And to tell you the truth, the government's talking about hotels for what reason? Because Farage has made them talk about it. Let's be blunt there. Um I think honestly he know he knows that to talk about an issue for which a hefty chunk of the leave base that which is very much in favor of him do associate the blight in the cost of living to Britain's decision to leave the European Union to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two to two two two decisions I think frankly taken by Nigel Farage would be a mistake people don't make that association people are looking for their speaker their champion they're not looking for the architect of this policy or that and I think therefore to always say oh far is responsible for this I think it's it's a bit of a reach you know people on this podcast listeners you would view it as true that's fair that's fine but the voters don't see that the voters see far as always the insurgent they they see him as outside the establishment even though we know yes yes yes >> they just want a champion they want a leader of a peasants's revolt and that's what they have in Nigel Farage >> well as labor negotiators sort of slog slowly slowly through this deal, you know, on food and animal products, youth mobility scheme, energy defense. Could it be that Labour comes under a lot of pressure from the parties to its left who can be more fullthroated about actually rejoining the EU at some point? It's something that I remember Andy Burnham uh the Greater Manchester Mayor actually said at Labour conference and we went to go and watch him do an in conversation. He was asked about rejoining the EU and he said yes at some point yes. So, is there a pressure there from Labour's left that they're not going fast or extreme enough in this area?
>> Oh, you don't know. You don't know. The motivations for those who are I rate with Labor and are choosing leftwing alternatives. And by leftwing, yes, you've got the Greens. Yes, you've got your your party who are between zero and two or three or 4%. We don't know. The polling has really been poor since. Um and yes you have to include the Lib Dems I suppose because they are >> uh where are the Lib Dems gunning for in Labor areas Hull and yes there are a few let's not lie Cambridge as well um you have to wonder what is their motivation and it is again it is the cost of living the main reason people are choosing green is not necessarily because Star's too centrist star's too uh not not not left enough on immigration it is primarily the cost of living it is primarily younger people who are feeling no relief from a government that they partly voted in on on a manifesto of change. They're feeling nothing. There is though nevertheless some yes leftwing irritation. It is just I think consigned I think consigned confined to a smaller proportion of the public than you think. Greens right now they're on 10 to 15%. A hefty chunk of that well I wouldn't say hefty chunk of that 10 to 15% 3 to four to 5 percentage points of that are activists. So by activists I mean people bluntly who are listening to this podcast right now. Hello. Um but the most of the voters are fellow travelers. Most voters are fellow travelers to your ideas to your ideological views. Cost living is key there. Talking about Brexit or rather them being loud on Brexit. I think they can be unashamed about that because they're not looking to win 30% of the vote. They're not looking to get into number 10. They're looking to reach 10 to 15%. They can absolutely help themselves. Is there a market for that? Are there enough voters right now of a remain bent who are looking for an out andout rejoined party? I think there are, but I think those types of voters are more concerned by Nigel Farage in number 10 than they are by anything else. And I think them going elsewhere may show up in the local elections to come. But in a general election, it's they who would be minded to vote tactically. Yes. And I have to say, there's something we need to bear in mind. That's not always going to benefit Labor. That is going to start benefiting the Greens. There are going to be plenty of areas in London. There are going to be plenty of areas in Manchester, Manchester proper that if the Greens sweep in May, they will be seen as the what's the word preeminent party of the left >> and it will be there. The tactical vote will be for them just based on council elections and either the Greens will be trying that strategy soon.
>> In a similar way in the Kili Senith uh bi-election where Kumry cast themselves as the stop reform or beat reform option rather than Labor. Wi-I which is you know on on paper you should be writing up as ridiculous because it's a Labor council Labor incumbency labor vote but what I what I and Harry said in our report was that Labour counselors where were they weren't coming out they were apathetic where was the local CLP not there not present there was a report published by I think the Welsh Labor Party about what went wrong in wrong in Killili and the summation from it was it's London Labour's fault no I think I think it was the local party not getting involved, not having a presence, not doing anything for as long as it did.
>> Well, there's not much you can't blame on London Labor. >> Oh, no. No, we should. Richard.