Transcription
Are US special forces permanently stationed in Taiwan, just 3 miles away from mainland China?
In early 2024, Taiwan's United Daily News ran a story stating that US Green Berets were building permanent bases on the offshore islands of Kinmen and Pangu. You can actually see China's skyscrapers with the naked eye from there. This news was a major shock to the world and was rerun by dozens of outlets. It's the very definition of big if true, because it would reverse decades of US foreign policy and cross one of China's biggest red lines that they've signaled would trigger all-out war.
But a decision like that would have to be cleared by the US Indo-Pacific Commander, Admiral John Akilino. He's the guy in charge of operations in this region. Here's what he had to say about the story when the US House Armed Services Committee asked him about it.
"Congressman, first let me just say the article is incorrect. There is no permanent stationing of US forces there. That is just inherently inaccurate."
So, the US government is firmly denying that's the case. The denial is consistent with the broader US foreign policy of strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan. So, the big question is, are these soldiers actually permanently deployed or rotational? What's the difference between rotational and permanent station troops? And why does that distinction even matter?
Here's the facts that we know for certain. The United States Congressional Research Document said the DoD's Defense Manpower Data Center reported 41 US military personnel were assigned for duty in Taiwan as of December 2023. What were those 40 soldiers doing there? Well, the US Department of Defense said that they were responsible for guarding the American Institute in Taiwan, which is the unofficial US embassy in the country. They kept those actions relatively quiet so as not to provoke China. They state US-Taiwan defense cooperation is robust but has been conducted largely out of the public eye due to the unofficial nature of the US-Taiwan relationship and concerns that significant public enhancements of defense ties could provoke Beijing to step up coercion and threats against the island or even trigger the conflict the United States seeks to deter.
But we also know that a year later, in 2024, the number of rotational US military personnel in Taiwan increased from 40 to as many as 200. It seems unlikely that they're also just guarding the American Institute. So, what exactly are they doing there?
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Green Berets are training the Taiwanese defense forces on small UAV tactics. This is the Black Hornet Nano. It's a small, hummingbird-sized drone that's capable of reconnaissance for an infantry squad. Direct fire using coordination with that type of drone is one of the most powerful tools that special forces bring to the table. US Green Berets are also teaching Taiwan's forces how to strengthen their overall security. Much of the focus is on preventing sabotage and enemy infiltration. A 2017 Taiwanese government report estimated there were as many as 5,000 Ministry of State Security Chinese spies working in Taiwan. It's like China's version of the CIA. Special forces provided training on asymmetric warfare and counter-intelligence to help prevent that.
We can get a pretty good idea of what their mission is by looking at the annual National Defense Authorization Act. The National Defense Authorization Act is a United States federal law that governs the policies of the US Department of Defense. It's passed by Congress and it's critical for outlining defense strategy. Each year, Congress has required that the US military do several things in this document: practice training and military exercises with Taiwan, as well as maintain exchanges between defense officials of the United States and Taiwan at the strategic, policy, and functional levels.
Then there's the 2023 Taiwan Enhanced Resilience Act, which requires the US military to do a full audit of Taiwan's ability to defend its critical infrastructure, including its transportation and communication networks. It requires a full rundown to be made on Taiwan's ability to employ their long-range precision fires and missile defense systems. US special forces could be tasked with making these assessments and recommendations.
Now, according to China foreign policy expert Mile Yu, since the 1950s, US foreign policy has deliberately excluded Taiwan's offshore islands, particularly Kinmen, from its defense commitments. These islands were considered indefensible in a strategic sense and too sensitive geopolitically. So, first of all, this move, if it was true, would be a major geopolitical shock. It would break a seven-decade-long taboo. If there was a permanent deployment of US special forces, it would cross a red line with China that would possibly trigger World War II.
This is part of the reason why the distinction between permanent and rotational troops is crucial. Permanent station troops have a longer duration. So that can mean that you're sent to a country for an entire year or more instead of just a few months. This requires infrastructure that includes established, dedicated bases. Sometimes troops are there on rotations of four years. It includes housing, support infrastructure like English language schools and family support facilities that would be visible from satellite imagery or from other surveillance techniques from China. Soldiers would bring their wives and children with them on permanent stations. It requires laws signed between the US and the host nation that cover what happens if a young E2 soldier, a private, commits a crime in a foreign country, for instance. There's a lot of red tape there, which would indicate publicly to China that the US was stationing a permanent troop presence in Taiwan.
A permanent station is largely political because it implies that the United States would defend that land to the last. It's a diplomatic signal. This means it would be an end of the strategic ambiguity, which has been the foreign policy status quo here for decades. It would represent a formal US security commitment to Taiwan, which hasn't been done since 1979. This move would be even more controversial because it would be a commitment to their offshore island, 3 miles from mainland China, which has never been done in 7 decades. These are some reasons why permanent troops cannot be quickly pulled out in the event of an invasion. They'd be a clear message that the United States will defend the land. US forces in Germany, Japan are examples of permanently stationed troops. They're working on a permanent NATO base in Lithuania as well, for example.
Now, on the other hand, rotational troops are a more flexible, dynamic presence that can adapt to changing strategic needs. A perfect example of rotational troops were the US Army soldiers who were training in Ukraine in February of 2022. They were there up to 3 days prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Washington was able to easily pull them out of the country. Though, if they were a permanent station of troops, pulling them out would have been a much bigger deal and would have likely meant direct war between Russia and the United States. It would make a very big difference if soldiers were no longer just rotating in for two weeks, training, having a drink, catching a quick XTD, and then coming back home.
Permanent bases are also about foreign policy and diplomacy. Whether you slap a permanent or rotational label on them makes a huge difference, even though a soldier is a soldier. It might sound like a minor distinction. It might sound like I'm splitting hairs, but the difference between permanent and rotational status of troops can be the difference between routine training and World War II from the perspective of both the United States and China.
For context, China is currently in high-level talks with Cuba to potentially permanently station Chinese troops from the PLA on their island located just, you guessed it, 100 miles away from the United States. This is according to a widely cited Wall Street Journal report. This kind of probing of boundaries and foreign affairs frequently happens. On top of that, you might not know this, but China has for the past two decades, China and Russia have operated a giant spy base and radar equipment in Cuba. Although, it's important to note Beijing does deny this. And White House spokesperson John Kirby said that the reports were not accurate as well. So, they're both denying this is the case.
Another hint about whether US troops are actually deployed to Taiwan comes to us from statements made by the Chinese government. The diplomatic response was muted at best. Lee Pangu, China's spokesperson for the Chinese embassy, was questioned about the story and said, "China firmly opposes US military contact with Taiwan and its attempts to arm the island. We urge the US to stop enhancing military contact with Taiwan region or arming it by any means or under whatever pretext, stop creating factors that could heighten tensions in the Taiwan Strait."
What we observe from statements on both sides here is that both governments downplay and tolerate adversarial actions near their borders. Why might that be? Well, not that long ago, the United States and Russia were both on a treaty of open skies, which actually encouraged spying on one another by allowing both countries to run surveillance missions over their adversarial territory as a sign of transparency and increasing trust in what they were and weren't actually doing. It's a way to confirm what your adversary is doing and if they're taking aggressive action or not. The argument is there's some level of benefit to transparency and that it would lower the chances of war.
So where is all this confusion about US deployments to Taiwan coming from? Part of the confusion came from statements made by Taiwan's defense chief, Xiao Chang, who appeared to confirm the story. When asked about the story, his answer was, "We need to communicate with our allies. Whether it is a team, a group, or a country, we can learn from each other to see what strengths we have. This is a fixed thing." He also said the training took place on a regular basis. But that phrase, "This is a fixed thing," was interpreted by the entire media complex to be confirmation that US troops were indeed permanently deployed there.
The fact that some military advisers were unofficially on the ground in Taiwan was an open secret for many years until 2021, very recently, when Taiwan's president finally confirmed their presence. But when asked if they were permanent or not, she confirmed they were not. To me, all of this suggests that the US and Taiwan are purposefully walking the line between creating doubt about how many US soldiers are there and what their role is to create more ambiguity.
This strategy comes with risks, though. China has a few red lines that they've outlined when it comes to Taiwan. The first red line is if Taiwan declared independence. The second red line is if Taiwan was added to the United Nations. The third red line is if the United States recognized Taiwan diplomatically officially. And the fourth red line would be the United States permanently stationing troops on their soil in Taiwan. So if this was really the case, we'd likely already be in World War II or at least be hearing very strong rhetoric from Beijing. Now, this could all change tomorrow if the US government verbally says soldiers are permanently stationed in Taiwan, but they haven't yet.
Don't get me wrong, the United States has about 800 foreign bases around the world, 40 times more than any other country. On top of that, the CIA is operating on China's doorstep. In 2008, four CIA operatives from the maritime branch were killed by a storm right off China's shores. They were attempting to plant a monitoring device to listen for Chinese warships that were disguised as a rock. But the closest actual permanent base officially is the First Battalion, First Special Forces Group, forward deployed on the Japanese island of Okinawa.
The United States has been aiding what is the modern version of Taiwan since World War II. America provided fighter pilots, planes, and $200 billion worth of aid to help them defeat Japan. So when the Taiwanese KMT were defeated and retreated to Taiwan, they signed the mutual defense treaty with the United States to continue their alliance. The United States government claims that their forward-deployed forces in the Western Pacific are a legacy of this World War II posture.
As a result of this treaty, the US permanently stationed 30,000 troops in Taiwan at one point, at its peak in the late 1960s. Fighter bomber squadrons, tactical missile squadrons, and even nuclear weapons were there. During this time, China attempted to forcibly retake Taiwan. During both events, the small islands of Matsu and Kinmen were heavily targeted by PLA artillery and were subsequently turned into island fortresses. However, no islands under the control of the KMT were ever taken by the communist forces. After serious threats of nuclear weapons made by US President Eisenhower and the introduction of Western-donated weapons into Taiwan's arsenal, the CCP gave up on their attempts to capture any part of Taiwan for many years.
This is why it's no small matter about the status of US soldiers in Taiwan. There's a lot of historical baggage here. This stalemate continued until 1979. That's when the US government announced the normalization of US-PRC relations on January 1st, 1979. Because when that happened, that's when they withdrew all remaining military personnel from Taiwan. And they did it within 4 months. Since then, the US military has not maintained a permanent presence on Taiwan.
If it were true and there were permanent forces stationed there, they would either act more effectively as a deterrent or they could trigger a full-blown war. It would have served to send a message that the United States was committed to standing behind Taiwan because an attack on Taiwan in that case would be an attack by extension on the United States. Permanent soldiers would act as a kind of tripwire. They wouldn't be able to stop an invasion, but if it happened, it would drag the US into one. Examples of this are the United States soldiers who are stationed in South Korea and in Europe. There are a relatively small number, but their permanent status is a message that they will not be withdrawn in the event of war like they were from Ukraine.
Now again, this could all change tomorrow if the US government reverses course, but so far they haven't. However, in 2024, this is starting to change. China has developed new naval capabilities that give them new options that they never had available to them in the past. Based on looking at their actions, we can see China is training and preparing for possibly a quarantine of Taiwan. Here's a map of the exercises in red. As you can see in red, the drill covered a larger area than it did the year prior. The gray zones marked represent the training in 2022. This indicates to us that China could be preparing for a full blockade of the nation instead of an invasion.
We know from the National Defense Authorization Act and the Taiwan Enhanced Resilience Act, section 5502 states the purpose of the act is to help Taiwan to build capabilities to enable Taiwan to delay, degrade, and deny attempts by the People's Liberation Army to: a conduct coercive or gray-zone activities, b to blockade Taiwan like we were just talking about, or c to secure a lodgement of any islands administered by Taiwan. They're clearly talking about the islands that Taiwan administers of Kinmen and Pangu that we were talking about in the beginning.
What's the difference between a blockade and quarantine? A quarantine uses Coast Guard and police maritime units to cut off access to ports and control the flow of supplies instead of outright cutting it off like a blockade. What's the benefit of this approach for China? According to this humanitarian law website, a blockade is an act of war that is regulated by international law. Therefore, China would need to be careful implementing this strategy so as not to unintentionally escalate their gray-zone operations into an open conflict.
How would China go about enforcing a blockade or a quarantine? According to after-action analysis by John Dodson and Jonathan Harmon at the Global Taiwan Institute, the military exercise operation was divided into five main operational areas (zones) in the southwest, west, northeast, and southeast. It involved a total of 19 Chinese Navy ships, 16 Coast Guard vessels, and 49 aircraft. While areas closer to the key ports of Taipei were concerned about Chinese Navy ships, outlying islands closer to China were exercises usually include several partnered nations. China's joint means military operations in coordination with its various Coast Guard and militia units. Experts believe the drill was short and limited so as to make logistics easier to plan for China. This along with the A designation alongside the year indicates that China may expect to conduct more short-fuse exercises around Taiwan later this year as either a means of punishment or a way to normalize these military exercises for people on the island. Either way, it puts pressure on Taiwan.
These exercises are not just military drills, but strategic messages aimed at both Taiwan and its allies, particularly the United States. By preparing Taiwan's forces to counter these type of threats, US special forces are directly contributing to the island's resilience in the face of China's increasingly aggressive maneuvers. The synergy between these training missions and Taiwan's defensive strategy is critical. As China refines its ability to conduct a blockade or quarantine, Taiwan's ability to respond effectively with or without direct US intervention becomes a key factor in maintaining regional stability.
A complete blockade of Taiwan would devastate the island's economy. 98% of the island's energy resources and oil and gas are imported. To thread this needle, any gray-zone embargo would need to be backed up by a military invasion force ready and willing to escalate to full-scale conflict. A real and imminent threat is the only way China has a chance at deterring outside interference when their embargo begins to affect international trade. Based on current American polling, the deepening relations between the United States and Taiwan security forces and the election of their new president, the political timing for this type of operation is not ideal right now.
The integration of US special forces expertise with Taiwan's defense efforts serves as a crucial deterrent against potential Chinese aggression, underscoring the importance of these training operations in the broader context of Indo-Pacific security. The situation in Taiwan is a complex and delicate balance of military strategy, geopolitical maneuvering, and international diplomacy. The distinction between rotational and permanent US troop presence in Taiwan and their offshore islands is not just a technicality, but a matter that could escalate tensions with China to unprecedented levels. As both the US and China navigate their red lines, the world watches closely, understanding that the stakes are incredibly high.
I'm your average infantryman, Chris Cappy. If you like this video, please check out one of these ones. While you're here, remember to hit the like button if you enjoyed the report.