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[Music] [Music] Hello, I am Brijesh Dwivedi. You are watching the special bulletin related to gold and silver, Bullion Meter. Silver prices have reached record highs. The prices are not stopping. In the domestic and international markets, the price of silver has reached a record high. Gold is also close to its record high. It is trading slightly lower. All records are being broken in the bullion market. We will discuss this. The biggest question remains, how much more upside is left? In such a situation, what should be the strategy for investors? What should be the strategy for traders in gold and silver? Should one buy intraday or sell? What should be done for the long term? To discuss all this, two special guests are joining us. Ankit Kapoor ji, Co-founder and Head of Research at Commodity News Securities, and Vandana Bharti ji, Head of Commodity Research at SMC Global Securities. A very warm welcome to both of you on The Bonus. Hello. Hello sir. Hello ma'am. Before we talk to you, let me tell you that a tremendous surge is being seen in silver prices. Prices have reached record highs. In the domestic market, whether on MCX or COMEX, prices are at record highs on both platforms. You can see. It is also being shown on the screen. Silver December futures are seen touching a record high of ₹1,28,600 per kilogram. On COMEX, silver has touched a record high of $42.73 per ounce. You can see that the price of silver in domestic and international markets has reached a record high. We will discuss this. First, I would like to turn to Ankit sir. Sir, the way prices have surged in silver. No one knew that we would see such a tremendous rally in silver in the morning session. Prices are seen going to record highs. Prices are still on the upside. Sir, what is your opinion on such a big rally this morning? Has any major reason or major fundamental emerged? What is the reason, sir? Firstly, many people are saying that this is a bubble. My opinion is that it is not a bubble. There are fundamental reasons for the rally being seen in it. The biggest thing is that yesterday news came out that Mexico is talking about imposing a 50% tariff on China. If this happens, then definitely silver prices will be boosted further. Because Mexico produces almost 25% of the world's silver, almost 25.4.8% to be precise, almost 25% silver. And if such a situation arises, then definitely there will be trouble in the silver market. Now, along with Donald Trump, there is also talk in the G7 meeting about imposing up to 100% tariffs on China and India. Global tensions are prevailing. We are continuously seeing bad data coming from America. Yesterday, the inflation rate has become 2.9%. After 29.9%, whether the Fed cuts interest rates or not, this has become a big question. If it cuts, then definitely there is pressure. It is doing so because of that. And even after inflation rises, if the Fed cuts interest rates, then it is definitely a negative sign for the economy, due to which we will see more rally in the market. So, if we talk about the overall trend, whether it is gold or silver, we should not work by selling. The upward trend will continue. Yes, absolutely, the upward trend will continue in gold and silver. This is sir's opinion. Ma'am, what will be your opinion regarding silver? I agree here, Brijesh ji. I feel that this new move by Mexico has given a run-up to the already high silver prices. It was thought that the rally would take a breather at $42, but now $45 is coming very close. And I feel that there is a Fed interest rate cut on September 16th to 17th. Earlier, two were expected, but now three are being talked about, especially after yesterday's data on inflation or jobless claims. So, I feel that the pressure on the Fed will increase after this. Although a higher inflation number makes the Fed a bit cautious about not cutting rates too much, there is also a fear of recession. So, in such an environment, I feel that rate cuts can also intensify here, and September 16th-17th is not too far away. So, before that, I feel that the buying of silver can continue, and it is rapidly moving towards $45 on COMEX. And if we talk about our market, I feel that ₹1,30,000 to ₹1,32,000 is not a very big range for silver. Yes, absolutely. Overall, what is emerging is that from the Fed meeting or until the meeting, if we look at the talks about rate cuts, then silver, as ma'am is saying, on COMEX, $45, and on MCX, ₹1,30,000 to ₹1,32,000 levels can be seen. You can see that the upward trend is present in silver today, and a bullish trend is also present in gold. Ankit sir, I would like to come to you. In such a situation, the question that arises is for the viewers and traders, which is also their continuous question, what to do in silver now? In silver, ₹1,24,000 has become a major support. I don't think if we expect any fall, it will be below ₹1,24,000. A good bounce has been seen from quite a good support zone. After the rally we saw, if we look, the market was under control on Wednesday and Tuesday. After that, the expected rally did not come. But after last night, the rally that has come, I think it is fresh buying, and a new breakout has occurred above ₹1,27,500. So, I think the trend will remain positive, and as Vandana ji has said, ₹1,30,000 to ₹1,32,000, we will definitely see it touching. Silver is seen touching the ₹1,30,000 to ₹1,32,000 level. Sir, is there any trading call for today in silver? The viewers are continuously asking for trading calls. Sir, what trade can be taken in silver today? See, there has been a gap down, gap up opening, so I will not buy aggressively here, but I feel that if there is any correction, then around the support, the breakout level, as I have said before, the resistance becomes support, so the resistance was ₹1,27,500. If it is found around that, then around ₹1,24,500, it can be bought. Sorry, it can be bought around ₹1,27,400. This is perhaps gold. I would like the silver trading call to be shown on the screen. Sir, please show the silver trading call. Yes sir, please tell. Yes, yes. So, we can buy silver around ₹1,27,400. It will be a positional call with a stop loss of ₹1,24,000. We will see targets up to ₹1,32,000. Yes, absolutely. All the viewers who are connected with The Bonus, this is Ankit sir's trading call. It is being shown on the screen. I am repeating it. You can buy silver in December futures. Please note, a buy on dip strategy is being shared here. So, buy at ₹1,27,400. A target of ₹1,32,000 is being given. You can keep a stop loss of ₹1,24,000. Please note, the target of ₹1,32,000 will be an all-time high target. Silver prices will be seen reaching record levels here. Sir, is this target a positional call or an intraday call? No, this is a positional call, not an intraday call, because the movement is ₹3,000 to ₹4,000. If it happens intraday, it will be icing on the cake. But I expect that it can be achieved by next Friday. By next Friday, silver prices can be seen around ₹1,32,000. The upward trend continues in silver. Ma'am, I would like to come to you. What will be your trading calls for silver today? Brijesh ji, I agree that the strategy should be the same here because there has been a gap-up opening. If there is a slight correction, buy there, and I feel that the risk-reward ratio will then be in favor. If it comes around ₹1,28,200, then buy. A stop loss of ₹1,27,900 will have to be placed for a target of ₹1,29,000. And for those who can hold, I feel that next week, the levels of ₹1,30,000 might be seen. But one thing here is that whatever trade you do, do it with a stop loss. Because sometimes we get queries. They have sold at very low levels. So, in such a situation, we are continuously giving buying strategies. So, it will become very difficult. So, do any trade with a stop loss. Yes, absolutely. The most important point is, whatever trade you take, make sure to put a stop loss. Ma'am's trading call for silver is being shared. You can see it on the screen. Buy at ₹1,28,200. That is, buy if there is a slight correction. The target can be kept at ₹1,29,000. A stop loss of ₹1,27,900 is being advised for silver. All the viewers who are currently live with The Bonus, if you have any questions regarding gold, silver, or the entire bullion market, you can ask in the comment box. We have Ankit sir with us. Vandana ma'am is here. Their opinions will be taken. Also, if you have any positions stuck anywhere, you can ask questions about that too. Ankit sir, I would like to come to you. Gold is not behind either, sir. Gold ran first, and then silver is running in today's session. The bull rally is also present in gold. It is very close to its record high. It is down by about ₹300. Sir, what is your opinion on gold from here? If we look at MCX and COMEX, it is just below $37. Sir, what do you think about gold from here? Talking about spot gold, the rally has been going on for a long time and it is seen to be sustaining here. But my point is that if a soldier takes two steps back, it doesn't mean he is scared. So, here, I don't think there will be any major fall in gold. There is a resistance at $360, which was our target before. If it gives a weekly closing above $3660, then we should be prepared for further upside rally towards $3720 to $3780. There are no major signs of a fall currently. $3600 to $3580 is the major support base zone. As long as it does not go below $3580, the rally will continue in it. I think we should wait until the evening, or wait for the $36, $360 level to be crossed. On the other hand, if I talk about MCX, I feel that the trend remains positive. The weakness of the INR is continuously being seen. As I said earlier, if it is trading above 88, then levels up to 90 are open for us. We can remain in it with a stop loss of 86.80. So, accordingly, we are expecting a continuous rally in gold as well. I feel that targets of around ₹1,11,000 to ₹1,20,000 can be seen in the next 15 days. Yes, absolutely. The upward trend is also present in gold. Many viewers were also asking questions about what is happening in gold. So, the uptrend is still present. For today, whether it is an intraday call or a positional call, whatever it is, Ankit sir, please tell us if there is any trading call in gold. We can buy gold. If there is a fall, it can be bought around ₹1,09,000. The stop loss will be the low of yesterday, ₹1,08,500. The target can be seen intraday at ₹1,09,800. Yes, absolutely. Please note, all the viewers who are connected, the silver call given earlier was positional, this is an intraday call for gold. Buy at ₹1,09,000. The target to be kept is ₹1,09,800. Please do put a stop loss. The trading call for gold at ₹1,08,500 is being shown on the screen. You can note it down. Vandana ma'am, I would like to come to you. How are you seeing gold? Ma'am, what targets are you expecting from here? Also, please tell if there is any trading call for gold today. In gold, I feel, Brijesh ji, something has changed very aggressively recently. Earlier, the stance was that there would be two interest rate cuts. Now, three are being talked about, and the probability is very high. If we look at the Fed's tool rate calculator, then I feel that there are three Fed meetings in September, October, and December, and there should be one rate cut in each of them. This is my expectation. So, I feel that accordingly, gold will continue its upward move, and I feel that our MCX gold might reach ₹1,11,000 to ₹1,15,000 by Dhanteras or Diwali. And for today, I feel that buying should be done around ₹1,09,500 in gold. It can touch its previous record high. The target should be ₹1,09,850, and a stop loss will have to be placed here around ₹1,09,300-400. Yes, absolutely. You can buy gold around its all-time high of approximately ₹1,09,500. The target to be kept is ₹1,09,850, and please do put a stop loss here. You can buy gold by placing a stop loss of ₹1,09,400. The trading call is being given by ma'am. It is being shown on the screen. You can note it down. Ankit sir, I will come to you. Let's talk about how far gold prices will go. But before that, many brokerage houses have made their own analyses and estimates. They have shared their analyses. I would like them to be shown on the screen once. For example, Goldman Sachs has said that gold prices can go up to $5,000 per ounce. Apart from this, Swiss Asia Capital has said that by 2032, gold can be between $8,000 to $12,000. Also, JP Morgan's report has come. By 2026, JP Morgan says it will be $4,000. ANZ Group says it will be $4,000 by 2026. Only two brokerage houses, UBS and Citibank, say that gold prices may come down by the end of this year. Downside by how much? Around $2,700 to $3,100. Only these two brokerage houses are estimating that prices will come down. All other brokerage houses, and we are also talking to analysts, are saying that prices will go up. Ankit sir, I would like to know your opinion. What is your target for gold by the end of the year? Because the target of ₹1,50,000 to ₹6,000 by Diwali, which you had given, has already been achieved before Diwali. Now, sir, what is your target by the end of the year? And these various targets given by brokerage houses, is there any chance of prices coming down, or will prices be seen going up? See, it is a market, it can go anywhere. Those who have said $2,700 must have found some reasons, and those who have said $4,000, $8,000, they must also have some reasons. As of now, if we talk, for the short term, for those who have bought for the long term, definitely the target of $8,000 will be achieved. Whether it happens in 2032 or 2040 is a different matter. We need to look at the overall scenario, where the scenario is currently heading. Because in the coming time, I also feel that Bitcoin should not be ignored, because Western countries are favoring Bitcoin more compared to Asian countries. The biggest reason for this is that if we look at gold, if I talk about unofficial figures, in India, gold is expected to be somewhere around 28,000 to 30,000 tons. Whereas if we talk about China, it is expected to be around 32,000 tons of gold. So, these two countries are the ones that have the most gold in the market, if we look at Asian countries. So, this tug-of-war will be seen in the coming time. What the situation will be is a matter for later. Because prices have risen so much. If we look at the last 2 years, gold prices have doubled. They have given almost 100% gain. So, such conditions will definitely lead to some correction. It will definitely happen. But as long as these tariff war situations are going on, I don't think there should be any fall in it. Currently, my short-term target is $3780. So, a correction will be seen again from around $3800. But until $3800 is reached, I feel that a slightly positive bias will remain. Or if a correction comes from here, as I talked about, if a weekly closing above $3360, $360 does not come and a correction occurs, then there will be a short-term correction again between $3500 to $3450. From there, buying can be created again. This is the overall outlook. But how tensions are created, how much they survive in the market going forward, remains to be seen. Everyone knows that stagflation is coming. Everyone is talking about the possibility of stagflation, due to which there will be some difficulties in the US economy. Because of that, gold prices will remain high. But can any positive step be taken? If definitely a positive step is taken by the US government, and the tariff situations can be controlled, then definitely we will see some relief in gold. The rally seen could turn into a fall. But as of now, there is no situation where we can expect a major fall in gold. Sir, given the upward trend in gold and silver, I would like your answer. What advice would you give to investors in such a situation? If an investor wants to create a new position, wants to invest, at what range, at what price can they buy gold and silver? I think new investment should absolutely not be made at this level. Or if a correction comes around $3500, then it can be done, because there are many people now.
These are the retail participants. They are running towards physical investment, not towards jewelry. So, they are currently feeling that if I have $3.5 lakh or $50,000 lying around, I should invest it now. Perhaps in the coming time, this money will double very quickly. Nothing like that is going to happen. I will not advise fresh buying here. This trend is still continuing. So, if we talk about the risk-reward ratio from here, the risk-reward ratio has become quite risky. So, there will be no new buying here. But those who have bought earlier, who have physical gold with them, they should hold on to it. There is no problem right now. Even if there is a downside, my expectation is a maximum of $3500 to $3450. From there, it will reverse again, and targets up to 4300 will be seen in the coming time. So, one should stay invested with this expectation. Yes, absolutely, you can look according to the levels being told. Ma'am, what targets are you considering for gold and silver now, because all targets are being broken earlier, Ma'am. Bridge Ji, I have seen that its journey started from 5500 in 2004, and by 2025, in 21 years, it has seen 1100. And in these 21 years, if we look at the yearly performance, gold has seen a downside only four times. So, in my opinion, the upside will remain here, but now we cannot say that it will be limited. However, in the next one year, you can see gold at 1 lakh 2000, 1.25 lakh coming here. And a very big reason for this is the IAR. When gold was launched in 2004, the IAR was 45 here. Now the IAR is moving towards 90. So, in my opinion, whenever investing, one should definitely consider the currency for the long term, where their currency might go. If the currency is depreciating here and it increases a bit, and the tariff impact comes, then in my opinion, our gold will remain at a premium. And in the coming year, meaning in five or six months, it is possible that we might see the level of 1200 here. Because if we look at the IAR, by August, the return was 34%. But if we look in Euro terms, the return on gold was only 16% by August. So, I would say look at other reasons too. But when you are investing in it, definitely consider the performance of your domestic currency. Yes, absolutely, you people should also pay attention to the performance of the Indian currency. This is Ma'am's opinion. Sir, let's take some questions as well. Ankit Sir, I would like your answer. Please answer in a short time because time is short. Many questions have come. The first question is from Aditya. He is asking, can silver be bought from here with a view of one week? If you want to buy, wait a little. If it comes between $127,000 to $127,500, then you can buy. The stop loss is $124,000, but keep it strictly. Sir, Kailash Sharma Ji's question is, will silver be seen at $49 here? Can we buy silver at the current levels of $42? You are talking about the range of commodities. Kailash Sharma? Yes, absolutely, you can buy silver. And when you talk about the target of $49, you are talking about positional, definitely targets up to $49 will be seen. If we talk about from 1980 to today, it's been about 45 years. In 45 years, silver has not crossed the $50 level. So, in the coming time, we will see the $50 level being crossed. Because the rally in base metals has just started. And we have just seen the rally start in copper, and until now, silver was only moving with bullion. Now it will have to move with base metals, so there will be a good rally. I think within the next 12 to 15 months, we might see targets of silver up to $75 somewhere. Yes, absolutely, Ma'am, I would like your answer. Aryan Ji's question is about silver. He has sold silver at $121,000. He has sold it. He is asking what to do? Because he has shorted it at a very low level and is at a significant loss. Yes, and I feel that it will go to record high levels now, Bridge Ji, and I feel that wherever he gets the level of $1,27,000, he should exit. Until this commodity breaks the $124,000 level, there is no expectation of a major fall, not even a minor fall. So, $124,000 seems like a support to me. But for now, for now, I feel that even if it reaches $1,27,000, he should exit his positions. Yes, absolutely, Ankit Sir, the next question will be for you. It is from Vihan Ji. Gold has been sold at $1,02,500 here. He has shorted it. He is asking what to do? He has shorted at $1,02,500. It is shorted at a very low level. You also know that I don't have any opinion on this, but the advice is to keep a stop loss of $100 in it. Without a stop loss, we always say. Whenever we have spoken before, we have continuously talked about a rally. When we spoke last time, we had given a buy call around ₹16,000. So, buying is continuously happening in this. Keep a stop loss of $10,000 because no one knows how much upside there will be. You should not hold on to it thinking it will fall one day or come down one day. Keep a stop loss of $100 strictly. Yes, absolutely, you can stay invested in gold by keeping a stop loss of $100. Although your shorts are at a very low level, the chances are slim, but stay invested as Sir is suggesting, by keeping a stop loss. Ankit Sir, the question from Guru Gyan Ji is regarding silver. He has bought around the current price of 128480. So, he is asking what target can he hold with? What stop loss should he set? If I talk about the short term, if he wants to set a stop loss, if I talk only about intraday, then the stop loss will be $1,26,000. That will be quite major. But if we talk about a positional stop loss, it will be $1,24,000. If he has bought, there is no need to worry because the trend is still positive. So, he can hold for somewhere around $1,32,000. And if the quantity is large, then the stop losses will be a bit smaller. But if the quantity is under control, then stay invested with a stop loss of $1,24,000. The target can be seen up to $132,000. Yes, absolutely, the targets can be seen up to $1,320,000 in silver. Ma'am, I would like your answer to the question. Amit Ji's question is regarding silver. Is there any possibility of silver coming below $42? Currently, there is no possibility of it going below $42. I feel that even if there is any correction here, it will come down to $41.2 at the maximum. I do not expect more correction than that, for now. Yes, absolutely. Not much correction is expected here. Questions are coming continuously. Ankit Sir, I would like your opinion. Shubham Singh's question is. Shubham Singh's question. It is probably regarding gold. His question is not clear, so we will avoid it. Sir, I want to understand one thing. It is the last trading day of the week. The market will open on Monday. What suggestions will you give to the traders, viewers, and the audience connected with us? See, in today's uncertain market, I do not try to encourage holding positions on Saturday and Sunday because you never know what statement might come and how the rates will react. The market is already running high to high. If there is even a slight correction of 1%, then today gold becomes ₹1100, and silver becomes more than approximately ₹1200. So, we have to understand these levels to some extent. I feel that positions should be squared up at today's closing. Those who are doing short-term trading, those who are doing long-term trading, or those who have done physical buying can hold on. But for short-term, it is better to square up your positions before going to sleep, around 11 PM. Sir, Shubham Ji has sent the question again. I could not understand. He has shorted silver at ₹15,000. Sir, he has 30 lots. He is asking what to do? Yes, in this, neither Ma'am nor I can do anything. I thought the question was for gold, although he has shorted silver at ₹105,000. No, that's not the case. I still have many people who have shorted gold at 78,000, at 88,000. There are many things. I don't understand what opinion to give on this, how to exit at around 1,5000. The effort is to try to exit. How will they be able to exit? How much more risk can they take? It depends on their risk-taking capacity whether they want to see 1.5 lakh, 2 lakh from here in short. What are they expecting, they can understand themselves because at such levels, I don't think any analyst can give an opinion. Yes, absolutely, it is quite surprising that you people will go for silver short at ₹15,000. Because whenever a trading call is given, we tell the stop loss to the viewers connected with us, so you should trade keeping that in mind. Overall, the outlook for today's session is that the rally in gold and silver continues. Therefore, it is better not to create short positions. Even if you are buying, buy only after setting a stop loss. Ankit Sir, will there be any disclaimer from your side? I have no positions in the market. Everything I have spoken is completely unbiased. Please never trade in the market without a stop loss and definitely take advice from your advisor. Vandana Ma'am, disclaimer from your side. Yes, Bridge Ji, I do not do any trading in commodities, but in the company SMC, clients might have positions on my advice. Thank you very much, Ma'am, for joining today's discussion. For talking in such detail. Sir, thank you very much to you too. By the way, Sir, you have a very large fan following. The viewers who continuously join keep asking for you by name. Ankit Sir, what to do? What to do? The suggestions are very helpful, as the viewers are commenting continuously, which I can see. So, thank you very much, Sir, and thank you, Ma'am, for joining today's discussion. Thank you so much. This is our Bullion Meter show. Here, gold and silver are discussed. Fundamentals are explained. Trading calls are given. If you have any questions, you can join. Ask your questions in the comment box. Your questions will be answered by the experts we have with us. Besides this, keep staying connected with The Bonus. Subscribe to the channel. Share the videos. Thank you. [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music]