Transcription
Alright, hello everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, a market review. We'll talk about BTC which has bounced a bit. Is it a trap before a big drop as many are starting to talk about on social media? We'll talk about Ether, of course, and we'll look at three altcoins that were requested for analysis. I've noted CRV, then Ada. Before I start with BTC, I remind those who haven't seen yesterday's video about the current offer. You can benefit right now from €200 off the "Become a Trader" program for two reasons. First, it's the program's 3rd anniversary, and most importantly, it's to celebrate the major update that's coming. On January 1st, 2026, "Become a Trader" will enter a new dimension, a new era, okay? With even more in-depth support, more advanced courses, and even more personalized follow-up. Right now, as I said, you get €200 off. This is the last time you can benefit from such a low price on the program while also enjoying the updates that will arrive on January 1st, 2026. I remind you, 15 modules, over 30 hours of video. We talk about technical analysis. I share my best indicators so that you can trade effectively by the end of the program. Money management so you can optimize your gains and reduce your risk. I share all my tools that I use, my setups, my short, medium, and long-term strategies. We also talk about psychology, managing your emotions, and well, it's a training that isn't consumed quickly in 24 hours. It's truly a long-term investment that you're making, which will simply allow you to approach profitability and become 100% autonomous. That's what I advocate in my daily videos, in my training, is that you simply become an autonomous and profitable trader. And you also have bonuses that will truly evolve on January 1st, 2026. Already, you have the free updates. Each time, I add a course, something related to the program, and it's free, you don't have to pay extra, and everything related to the private group, personalized coaching, and support will evolve significantly within this program. Personalized coaching and support. But as I said, with the next update, we'll move into something a bit more advanced. So, I invite you to click on the first link in the description to see everything you'll get within the program and to also activate your offer. So, that's the first link in the description to activate everything.
Now, I'll start here with BTC. We're bouncing a bit like we've done in recent weeks, I'd say. Every week, we have a rather bearish week, and we retest low levels, and it's during the weekend that we pump and save the closing price a bit. That was the case for BTC, and it's also the case here for Ethereum, which we'll see just after. We always save the closing prices. We're still in this phase of sideways movement, and I think a big move is being prepared because since the bottom in 2023, every time we've had big sideways phases like we had, for example, at this level, at this level, every time we've broken out upwards or even downwards, we've had a big move. We can see it clearly. Well, here again, we broke out upwards, it's especially the big bottom that was established, we had a weak impulse which still represents +25-30% at this level. That's quite significant. Then when we broke out, we soared. Here, similarly, with the ETFs, here with the election of Donald Trump, it also pumped well. And even breaking downwards, we had a significant dump. We're not talking about -5%, you see, we were looking for -20%. So we'll see, depending on the resolution of this range, whether it's upwards or downwards. But I clearly expect a big move. If we break downwards, I think we could revisit at least -15% to -20%, or even a bit more, -30%. That's if we really have acceptance below the $100,107,000 level. Okay? A real closing price. That's why you have to wait. You shouldn't just look at wicks, you shouldn't look at H4 closing prices. Here, we're really looking at the long term, at the weekly chart. So what we need to watch is the closing price. For now, we're in this sideways phase, we're compressing, we have a compression of volatility, we're simply in a battle zone between buyers and sellers. It's the resolution that we really need to watch. And if we have a breakout upwards, similarly, I think we can expect +20% to +30% at least, which would bring us between $150,700 and $170,000. That's a realistic target for me. Now, there are quite a few people who are starting to be pessimistic, it's true. And often, the market does the opposite of what the majority of people think. As I told you yesterday, I'm in a phase of uncertainty, so I'm primarily preserving my capital, and I currently have a 50/50 cash-crypto balance. This is to know what to do in case we break downwards or upwards, to always have this flexibility to adapt and not be stuck. If you're in a phase where you don't know what to do, there are always things to do because many, and I'm sure perhaps you listening to this video, feel concerned, procrastinate, stare at a 5-minute or 15-minute chart looking for opportunities, looking for setups, but that's not how trading works. Already, if you're looking for opportunities like that quickly without real setups, you won't last in the long term. Yes, you can make 1 or 2 or 3 wins, it's possible, but in the long term, you will accumulate losses. I'm sure of it. You really need to have a strategy, okay, a setup, something that tells you "Okay, you should enter here, you should exit there." And if you don't have that, okay, that's the first thing you need to implement right now, unless you're just starting trading, crypto. In that case, you still need to train yourself, master technical analysis, master certain things before you want to implement a strategy. But if you already have a few months or a few years of experience, and you still don't have a strategy, a clear setup, strategy/setup, what do I mean by setup? It will simply be a set of rules, okay? Several rules that you've set for yourself, which when all of them are met and validated, you enter a position. Everyone has their own rules, but you need to know clearly, okay, here rule one is this, rule two is this, three, you don't need to have 50 either because in the end, you'll end up never entering. But well, that's what I advocate, it's simply a set of rules that you've backtested with, well, a set of 50 to 100 trades that show you that this strategy, this setup works. If that's not done yet, you need to ask yourself the questions. You need to ask yourself the questions. Okay, what type of trader are you? What type of investor even? We can do this for investing. Here, we're talking about trading. What type of trader are you? Do you have time? Do you not have time? If you have time, you might do intraday trading. If you don't have time, you might do swing trading or long-term trading. Then, do you prefer trading ranges or trends? All of these are questions to ask yourself. And you write all of this down. Well, you write all of this down, okay? You take your notes, and that will simply create your setup. Well, trading only in ranges, for example, trading when you're at a support level. Well, you'll see all your conditions like this until you have the last condition which is the most precise, it's the one that makes you enter a position. For example, having a W pattern. Then a divergence, a bullish divergence on the MACD, etc., etc. Then you have your take profit and stop loss conditions. You fix all of this. Okay? These conditions, when they are anchored, they don't move. If it's a W that you've decided on, you won't replace it with another pattern or anything else. You test all of this on a large number of samples. I generally recommend 50 to 100 trades. You keep a trading journal with all the trades. That will give you statistics, and at the end of these 100 trades, you'll be able to see if your setup works or not. If it works, great. You continue, okay? You then apply it in real trading, in micro trading, then it's up to you. If it doesn't work, well, you try to modify certain conditions so that it works. That's how it works. And if you don't do it, if you don't go through this step, don't think that there's a strategy overnight like that that you'll find without testing it that will work all the time. No, at some point, you have to get your hands dirty, you have to stop spending your life on a 5-minute chart saying, "Well, I'm looking for a small setup, a small opportunity." No, you should know in advance the trade that triggers. When I look at my screens every day, I know in advance if I'm going to have a setup that can trigger. Ah, I navigate through different templates. Okay, when I see that here, for example, for BTC, we are in the middle of my extremities that interest me for entering a position, for example, well, I know I won't have a trade. So, I set alerts at the extremities, but I don't need to stay stuck on this chart because otherwise, that's not the point. Okay? The point is to do other things, well, if I have a trade that triggers, the triggering of the trade represents 2% or 3% of all the work done beforehand. Buying and selling is simple, anyone can do it, but as I say, it's 2-3%, so that's something you need to understand and apply right now for those who really want to trade effectively. After, those who do long-term investing, it's different, but trading short-term will teach you to be much more rigorous, disciplined in your long-term investments. If I look a bit more at short-term on BTC, as I said, we bounced on this zone. We bounced somewhat in a V-bottom, which is often destined to be retested, not systematically, but it often remains retested. So we'll see what happens. For now, for me, BTC here on the short term, we are evolving in this sideways phase, blocked between two boundaries, a low extremity around $106,000, a high extremity around $116,000-$117,000. So, anything that goes back to test the low extremity is a good zone to look for longs. The high extremity is a good zone to look for shorts. And the goal is simply to avoid positioning ourselves in the middle of a range because that's where, generally, there's the most volume traded. Well, precisely, that's where our POC, our point of control is. So, I've put what's called a volume profile. It allows you to see where the most volume is traded in a zone that I've determined. We have here, as I said, the point of control, which is where the volume peak is, it's the middle of the range. That's where Mr. and Mrs. Everyone positions themselves. And we are not Mr. and Mrs. Everyone. We aim to position ourselves at the extremities, at the value low or at the value high. Okay? Because in the middle here, we have 70% of the volume, and in a range, we aim to position ourselves, as I said, at the extremities. First of all, because it gives you a much more precise entry, and it also gives you a much tighter invalidation of your entry. If I enter at this level here, with a stop loss below the range, and I target the opposite extremity, I have a risk-reward ratio of 2.6 to 1, meaning I risk 1 to gain 2.6, meaning I risk 10 to gain 26, I risk 100 to gain 260, I risk 1000 to gain 2600, and so on. If I have an entry at this level here, well, here I risk 1 to gain 1. So, that means I risk 100 to gain 100. See, it's less interesting. I always recommend having a risk-reward ratio here, so risk-reward of two to one or three to one. After, it depends on each person. I know some have setups that work with a 1:1 ratio. Well, it depends on each person's profile and strategy. But in any case, I recommend you earn more than you lose. This allows you to have setups like we discussed just before, setups that can work with a 40% success rate. This means you are wrong more often than you are right because 40% success rate out of 100 trades, you are wrong 40 times, sorry, you are wrong 60 times and you are right 40 times. So you are wrong more often than you are right. But you can be profitable. Why? Because if when you are right, you gain, let's say, 300, but when you are wrong, you lose 100. Well, we see that there's a very good balance that allows you to simply be profitable. That's why those who talk about success rate in general, well, okay, great. Even someone who says "I have an 80% success rate," okay, but what's your risk-reward? The success rate means nothing without the risk-reward, simply. So now, for BTC, we'll wait for the different closing prices, even our weekly closing price. Ah, I can mention it, I forgot, the monthly closing price. So, we have a monthly closing price that is quite interesting. You know what? I'll change the chart. A quite interesting monthly closing price. We see that we're a bit in a zone of indecision. We're making a new ATH, but at the same time, we're going back to test a low extremity. We've taken liquidity in both directions. We've had both a buyer reaction and a seller reaction on the same monthly candle. A monthly candle that shows us a typical indecision phase of a range like the one we're in. So, for me, here, we're in a phase, we need to be patient, and we need to wait for the potential move that might happen this month or next month. I don't think we'll have another big range like we had here, which lasted about 8 months. Okay, so this is a big range. This has been what? About 4 months that we've been in this sideways phase since around July. Well, we'll see, as I said, as long as we don't break downwards, the objective is clearly to reach the ATH. Now, we are clearly in a phase where we have a weakening of momentum. We see the peaks pumping, peak pumping, peak pumping are getting weaker. We see the lines I'm drawing. The lines are getting shorter and shorter because our trend is weakening, which is quite normal. The longer a trend lasts, the weaker it generally becomes. Well, on this side for BTC, I haven't had any setups trigger today. I was close, I was missing a few conditions for Ether. Well, it will be pretty much the same. We're going back to test our low extremity, and surely the weekly closing price will be saved once again, like in the last three weeks with low wicks. We see that we have a strong buyer reaction every time, as soon as we go below 3008-300, it's immediately bought back. So, we have buyers present. Now, we need buyers who push and break through, because at some point, these buyers will get exhausted. They defend here, they defend here, they defend here. Already, when there are only buyers, well, after a while, these buyers, as I said, if we enter a pressure where we are in this kind of pattern, we make lower highs, which shows us sellers pushing more and more. And here, sorry, I missed my lower lows that are at the same level. I'll start again. Hop, we hit. Very good. We hit. You see this? This explains what? It explains that sellers are putting much more pressure. Since the highs are getting lower, buyers are defending, but buyers are getting exhausted because they can't push the price higher. It's a bit in the pattern we're in, with lower highs. Okay. And lows at the same level. So, there are a lot of buyers here. As long as they defend, all the better. But be careful, if we start to break, we could have a potential long squeeze if many buyers close their positions. So, we are at a support level for Ether, and it's clearly a good zone to look for longs with an objective to retest 4250, or even 4800, but an invalidation if we start to go below 3007. In any case, I've talked about it, I've said it, below 3007-3008 on a weekly closing price, it's clearly a bearish closing price, and we could expect a return to the $3000 level. For now, we are in a phase, as I said, of indecision. One, I won't enter here for the long term because I estimate that we are too high, we are close to the ATH. If I ignore that it's Ether, if I ignore that we are on the weekly chart, I draw a range. Where are we? Well, we are at the upper extremity of our range. Does a professional investor position themselves at the top of a range? No, they position themselves at the bottom of ranges, like we did last time in April 2025, because we were in a very good location zone. So, I can put a volume profile, I don't know if it will be relevant like this for the long term. Generally, the POC is quite low because there's a lot of accumulation, but well, we are above the value high. I'm not interested in positioning myself. If we go to test $3000, well, we'll be at the middle of the range. That's not what I prefer generally, but between trading and investing, it's different. I estimate that Ether at $3000 or $2002 becomes interesting again. I don't think we'll see Ether below the value at $1400 again. For me, very unlikely. I could be wrong, but it would surprise me. After, if we have to react and go back to test the low extremity, as I said, it's traded like a range, and it's not because it's Ether that we must necessarily long a resistance. No, that's why you have to combine fundamentals, technical analysis, etc., etc. Yes, Ether has a higher chance of breaking this range upwards, of course, but that's not a reason to do anything stupid. Simply neglect your entries because it's the second largest crypto, the second largest crypto, simply. So, well, I remain cautious, of course, for now. Regarding altcoins, a few altcoins are pushing, ICP is perhaps becoming a strong altcoin again, but I shared this type of trade privately with someone, which can simply be taken. It's a trade that can clearly be taken. Why? Because when I zoom out, where are we on ICP? We are close to a low, we've taken liquidity, we've made an all-time low, we are at the historical lowest closing price since 2022. Okay? We are really at an extremely low level. We are in a trend that has been bearish for a long time but is weakening, as I see the MACD, bullish divergence. So, we clearly have signs of weakening, and we are clearly at a level where we can say, very well, I'm taking a long with an invalidation if I have a weekly closing price below the historical low, because my goal is not to hold a crypto that makes a historical low here and potentially breaks out of this big sideways phase downwards. So, we are clearly at a major support level, and my goal is to position myself if I have a buyer reaction with a closing price here, we don't know where it will be, okay, but that breaks the previous highs, that breaks the moving averages, okay, not the 4-hour for now, but at least the short-term moving averages, and to retest different resistances. We have an interesting entry at a good support level after a buyer reaction, and we also have a very professional, very coherent invalidation at the level of the lowest point, because we don't want to position ourselves if we break such a level. It's like someone, hop, I'll delete everything. It's like someone who, in this phase, positions themselves, for example, on the pullback of this range. Okay? Their invalidation is here. Well. And if we lose this level, well, we don't want to hold crypto, an altcoin, an asset that breaks a bottom that was established there, because we'll have a high chance of going much lower, which is what happened. So, we are in a similar scenario. We are in a good zone to look for longs. On the weekly chart, if I wanted to be a bit more confident, I would wait for a better chart configuration with a better W structure. Okay? If I enter here, it's still quite aggressive, but it can be taken, and with an invalidation, I said, if we have a weekly closing price below this level.
Now, regarding altcoins, you can ask for analysis. I have CRV. Hop, CRV. Where are we with CRV? We are still in this sideways phase. We haven't done much since 2022. Okay. We marked a bottom here. Within this sideways phase, we have a very important pivot. It's this one where we had a deviation, accumulation, reintegration. We must not go back below this level, otherwise, we'll have a chance of going to test the lows we left below this accumulation. We are in a good zone to look for longs, but a buyer reaction is missing, and it's not the crypto of the century either, because you must not forget, you must always have this mindset. I like to have it, which is to say, okay, what has the crypto done in recent months, recent years? It has done nothing, it's been in a range. What have the other major cryptos done? For other major cryptos, I'm thinking of BTC, Ether, BNB, Solana, and I'm even thinking of Total 3, for example, we can take Total 3, Total 2, which represents the total capitalization of altcoins. Total 3 excluding BTC and Ether, Total 2 excluding only BTC. So this allows me to say, "Okay, very well, what has the crypto done?" I look, it has done nothing. Okay, first of all, is it interesting to own it? Because well, if it has done nothing, there's a reason, it's that the demand hasn't been interesting enough, present enough. We did have a good performance, x5. So, well, there's still something to do, but perhaps not in holding the crypto for 5, 10, 15 years. I don't think I'll hold this type of crypto for the very long term. On the other hand, there can be trades that can be taken. So, already, you see, my approach changes. I'll be more inclined towards a crypto that I'll own for a few weeks, a few months perhaps, but that I won't keep for 2 or 3 years like some people might. And then, my goal is to have good entries, like we have here, with an invalidation, because I don't want to keep it for the very long term. So, automatically, I prefer to invalidate and re-enter later. And if in the zone we are in, I have a reversal pattern, I break the moving averages, I have a buy signal, then I could position myself with the objective of retesting the upper extremity. After, if I already own CRV, well, it always depends on my entry. Okay? For now, we haven't had an invalidation for the long term either with the break of a major level. But if we lose these 20 cents, well, it wouldn't be good for the future.
Next, I have an analysis of Ondo. Ondo, well, it's quite simple, we are here at a major level, we see it clearly. I'll just delete some things. Tac. We are at a major support level that is being retested, that has been retested quite a few times. So, clearly, we are at an interesting level to enter a position. Now, there's a lack of buyer reaction. You see, we came back here, we had this buyer reaction with this rebound here, with these W structures broken upwards. Well, for now, here, I see a break of the 4-hour tunnel and we're back above the 1-hour tunnel. We see the little switch clearly. Here, I don't have it at all. And here, we are below the 1-hour, below the 4-hour. So, yes, we are at a support level. However, there's a lack of buyer reaction, it lacks pep, it lacks, well, reaction simply. So, it's good to have your zones, and many make the effort to draw a level, a trendline, a support level, but then you need confirmation within that level. It's not because you draw a support level that it's 100% certain it will hold. It can hold once, twice, of course, but you need to watch. Okay, you shouldn't try to anticipate if it will hold, you should try to react to whether you see it reacting and holding simply. For now, I have no, I have no, I have no signal that tells me, well, among all the signals that can exist, W patterns, head and shoulders, something that shows me that buyers are here, I absolutely don't have it. If we start to go above 80 cents, well, it could become interesting. Why not take a long if we have something like this, hop, why not take a long here with an invalidation lower to target the upper extremity. That's possible, but for me, I don't have it at all. So, well, you have to be patient. There are altcoins that are more interesting with buyer reactions. For now, Ondo is not one of them.
And the last crypto, Ada, which is often asked about, I don't know if it's the same person asking. I'll have to check. Well, it doesn't matter, I'm happy to analyze it anyway, but I don't know if there's a hype on ADA right now, or perhaps many people who positioned themselves during the upswing here, during the pump, and who find themselves a bit underwater. The most important thing, if that's your case, is always to locate your entries, to have good entries. Okay? When you have pumps like this, well, you draw your Fibonacci. For example, if we take this pump, you draw your Fibonacci, you wait for it to come into the reload zone of 0.58 to 0.786, which gives you a better entry zone. Take your Fibonacci, same thing, lowest point, highest point. Well, here we're going back to test our zone. Well, we are currently in a good zone to look for longs. Same as Ondo, however, what's missing is the buyer reaction. For now, it's not there. You see here on ADA, a W pattern, we see it clearly here, it's quite clean. We go above the moving averages, above the 4-hour, 1-hour, it takes off. Here, it's the same, W structure. There's enough here to make some profit, +30%. For now, we don't have a W pattern, which is what's missing. It's the signal that would show us that buyers are present. You see, it could be something like this. It could be a W here, as simple as this one, as this one. It could be lower. We could go a bit lower and propose a structure here, but something that already breaks the short-term moving averages which are oriented downwards here and act as resistance, we see it clearly, and that shows us that buyers are present. So, there are quite a few altcoins like this that are at support levels in interesting configurations. Why not? But it still lacks reaction. Well, I'll leave you with this. I've covered everything. Don't hesitate, for those who want to join the program and take advantage of the current offer, I invite you to click on the first link in the description, and I wish you a good evening and see you tomorrow for another video. Bye bye.