Transcription
I call AI and robotics the supersonic tsunami.
Yes.
Which maybe is a little alarming.
I think it's good. That's [laughter] good. Well, because the wakeup call in anything short of shaping atoms, um AI can do probably half or more of those jobs right now have universal high income and social unrest. That's my prediction.
Oh, that will make for a lot of problems.
Is that your actual prediction?
Yeah. Yeah, seems likely. [laughter]
All right, so Elon Musk just sat down with Peter Diamandis and Dave Blondon on the Moonshots podcast. It's a three-hour conversation, but buried inside it are a few moments that really stand out. He talks about how AI could already do a huge chunk of today's jobs right now. How AI and robotics together are about to hit like what he calls a supersonic tsunami. and how the real question isn't if this happens, but how fast it spreads and what that actually means for society. From universal high income to the singularity to robot surgeons to the loss of meaning, you're not going to want to miss this one. Let's get into it.
All right, so let's start with the claim that really kind of sets the tone for the rest of the video. Elon says that a number of jobs, especially white collar ones, could already be done by AI. And yet, they aren't. Check this out.
There's there's going to be more intelligence, digital intelligence, than all human intelligence combined and more humanoid robots than all humans. Um, and assuming we're in a benign scenario, Star Trek, sort of Rodenberry, not Cameron situation.
Yeah. Um,
poor Jim. [laughter]
Yeah. I mean, I guess it's important to have these sort of
counterpoints.
Yeah.
Let's not let's not go in that direction. Um, thing. Um, so uh the the robots are going to just do whatever you want. All the blue collar labor is being done by robots. All data centers are being done by robots. the the white collar labor will be the first first to go because until you until you can move atoms the thing that can be replaced first is anything that that involves just
digital if it's digital like if it involves
tapping keys on a keyboard and
moving a mouse the computer can do that thei can do that
sure
um you need the humanoid robots to to uh shape atoms so if all you're doing is changing bits of information which is white color work. Um that is that is the first thing that that
when is it gone this is the inspirational this is the inspirational part of the podcast by the way when is when is all white collar work gone by
well, there's there's there's a lot of inertia so even with AI at its current state um I'd say you're you're pretty close to being able to replace half of all jobs of
and you know that white color jobs that includes anything like education too.
Yeah. Mhm.
So, anything that involves information, um, and anything short of shaping atoms, um, AI can do probably half or more of those jobs right now.
Sure.
But there's a lot of inertia. People just keep doing the same the same thing for quite some time. Um, and there actually has to be a a company that makes more use of AI that competes with a company that makes less use of AI, creating a forcing function for increased use of AI,
right?
Otherwise, the company that that still has humans do um things that AI can do will still continue to exist.
So, I honestly agree with this. I've said it before in a previous video. The bottleneck isn't really capability anymore. It's deployment and adoption. And adoption takes time. There has to be a really strong reason for people to actually switch. And Elon's view is that reason is simple. It's cost.
I call AI and robotics the supersonic tsunami.
Yes.
Which maybe is a little alarming.
It's good. It's good. [laughter] Oh, because they just like wake up call.
This is important for folks to to gro because um uh I don't want to leave people depressed. I want people to understand what's coming. So, we're we're basically demonetizing everything. I mean, labor becomes the cost of capex and electricity. AI is basically uh intelligence available uh
at a dimminimous price.
Um uh so you're able to produce almost anything. Things get down to basic costs of materials and electricity, right? Uh so people can have whatever stuff they want, whatever services they need.
Um it's not when when we say universal high income, it sounds like it's a tax and redistribute, but that's not the case.
Um
it's it's I think my my best guess for how this will manifest is that prices will become prices will drop.
Yeah.
So as the efficiency of of production or the provision of services drops um prices will drop. I mean, you know prices in in dollar terms are the ratio between the output of goods and services and the money supply.
Sure. So if your output of goods and services increases faster than the money supply, you will have deflation and or vice versa, you know. So um
it's a good thing we're growing the money supply so quickly then,
right? I I I [laughter] Yes. That's why I I I came like let's not worry about growing the money supply. It won't matter because the output of goods and services actually will grow faster than the money supply. And I think we'll be in this and this is a prediction I think some others have made but um I will add to it which is uh that that I think governments will will actually be pushing to to increase money supply um like like faster.
Yes. They won't be able to waste the money fast enough [laughter] which is saying something for God.
So, if the cost of labor is dropping to the cost of electricity and the cost of goods and services are going to fall dramatically, then something like a universal basic income starts to sound like a necessity. Elon actually goes a step further. He says we'll likely see a universal high income where people can essentially have whatever they want. But he also adds a warning that we should probably be careful what we wish for. How do we go towards universal high income instead of social unrest?
So my both [laughter] because we don't want socialist juice.
So have universal high income and social unrest.
That's my prediction.
Oh, that will make for a lot of problems.
Is that your actual prediction?
Yeah.
Yeah, it seems likely. [laughter]
Like tell me to push back on it.
Yeah, exactly.
But it seems like that's the trend.
Yeah. Yeah, totally. No, we have Well, because there's going to be so much change. Yeah.
People are going to be scared shitless.
Yeah. It's it's sort of the um you know, um it's like be careful what you wish for because you might get it.
Yeah.
Now, if if you if you actually get all the stuff you want, is that actually the future you want?
Yeah.
Um because it means that your job won't be what matter
if you're living an unchallenged life.
Yes. Right. With no challenges.
Yeah.
No. You know, you know, if you become a couch potato, if it's the Wall-E future, that does not go well for humans.
Well, and we're used to being told, "Here's your challenge."
So, people haven't historically been very good at creating their own challenge in the absence of
I think Elon does a damn good job. Every time every time one company takes off, you start your next. Oh,
that's that's rare for punishment.
I think you are. Yeah, I think you ever thank God for that.
So yeah, they're kind of half joking here, but they're actually touching on something pretty deep. Because if AI and robots can truly do everything for us, and I mean everything, then what's the point? How do we find our place in a world that is essentially completely automated? Do we even have a place anymore? These are the existential questions we should all be thinking about right now because this is a lot closer than most people think.
Ray Ray has a singularity out way too far. I mean, this is like the next what what's your timeline for for this?
We're in the singularity.
Well, we are in the singularity for sure. We're in the midst of it right now for sure.
And we just feel
we're in we're in this beautiful sweet spot which is you know the
we're the roller coasters were just
Yeah, exactly. That's a great analogy. It's like that feeling.
You're at the top of the roller coaster and you're about to go.
Yeah. But you know it's going to be a lot of G's when you when you hit it.
Uh and it's like people like I don't have just have courtsiz seats. I'm on the court.
Exactly. And it blows my And still blows my mind sometimes multiple times a week. Yeah.
Um and so
just when I think I'm like wow. And then it's like [sighs] two days later more wow.
Yeah.
Um
exponential wow.
Yeah. I think we'll hit um AGI next year in 26.
Yeah. I heard you say that.
Yeah. I've said that for a while actually. And then you know and then you said by 2029 2030 equivalent to the entire human race.
2030 we exceed like I'm confident by 2030 um AI will exceed the intelligence of all humans combined
and that's way pessimistic if if you hit AGI next year and that's that's you know that date is is in flux but from that date to self-improvements that are on the order of a th00and 10,000x just algorithmic improvements is very short and so So why isn't everybody why isn't everybody talking about this right now?
Well, I mean on on
X on X they are.
Yes. But why isn't
about every day basically.
Yeah. But it's like
stop. [laughter]
It's not.
Okay. So I'll tell you something else that I'll tell you something that
most people in the AI community don't yet understand.
Okay.
Um which is there the almost no one understands this. um the intelligence density potential uh is vastly greater than what we're currently experiencing. So I I think we're we're off by tours of magnitude in terms of the intelligence density per gigabyte
of what what's achievable.
Yes.
Per gawatt of energy
per I'm trying by file size.
Okay. If the file size of the AI if you if you have a say get intelligence for
Okay. in Yes sir. um
on your on your laptop power tube or parameters the same thing whatever um
so two two orders of magnitude
yes
and you like you said you ringside courtside seat you would know
I'd say it's it's uh yes
towards magnitude improvement in um that's just just algorithmic improvement same computer and the computers are getting better
so and bigger you know they're getting better And the budgets are getting bigger. So
that's why like I think it's it is on it is like a 10x improvement per year type of thing. Thousand%.
Yeah.
And that and that's going to happen for Yeah. for the foreseeable future.
So yeah, the singularity has begun. We'll get AGI potentially this year and within a few years after that, AI exceeding the intelligence of all humans combined. And this will come from algorithmic improvements alone, not even new hardware or architectures. Now, all this might sound abstract. AGI, ASI, intelligence, density. It's hard to picture what that actually means in the real world. And there's also many different definitions for all these terms. But in this next and final clip, Elon gives a concrete example of what this could actually look like. Check it out.
Let me tell you about some of the good things, please. Um so right right right now um there's a shortage of doctors and and and and great surgeons. You're a doctor yourself. You know how that it takes a long time for a human to become
ridiculously expensive and long.
Ridiculously yes ridiculous a super long time to learn to be a good doctor.
Um and and even then the the knowledge is constantly evolving. It's hard to keep up with everything.
Uh you know doctors have limited time. They make mistakes. Um, and you say like how many how many great surgeons are there? Not not that many great surgeons.
When do you think Optimus will be a better surgeon than the best surgeons? How long for that?
Three years.
Three years. Okay.
Yeah. And by the way,
three years at at scale.
Yes. All
more there probably be more Optimus robots that are great surgeons than there are
sure
all surgeons on Earth.
And the cost of that is the capex and electricity. and it works in Zimbabwe. The best surgeon is throughout in villages throughout Africa or any place on the planet.
Now, maybe that sounds crazy to some of you, but the fact that this is even being talked about seriously should tell you something. The assumptions we've always had about work, skills, and value are starting to break fast. And honestly, I'm not sure where this leaves us as humans. I'm really curious what you guys think about all this, though. There's obviously good things and bad things that will come from this, but overall, are you generally more optimistic about where we're heading or pessimistic? Personally, I think it will be rough at first and then amazing if we could come out of it alive. But that's not exactly a unique opinion. I'm pretty sure most people think that. So, drop your thoughts below. I'm curious to see where you guys stand. And also, thanks for watching. If you enjoyed the breakdown, please feel free to drop a like. Hit that subscribe button if you haven't already.