Transcription
[Music] [Music] Professor, we are in the midst of World War III now, aren't we? How different is it from the past, from the first and second times?
>> Uh, in terms of origin, it's not that different. But in terms of the form of conflict, you can see that it's quite different, quite a lot.
>> This time, we won't see large-scale troop movements. But we will see the formation. We are currently in the stage of formation, of creating conflict. And we will have 2-3 points of war on this planet. And at this moment, the whole world is still watching the major battlefield between the United States directly and Iran. This is also a juncture where we see in the present era, where the severity might be greater due to the fact that the potential for conflict is quite different from the past, very much so. And the technology of conflict is quite different. But what is exactly the same is that right now, there is a situation in terms of economics, finance, and the banking system. If we know world history, from another perspective, which we are not saying that World War I was caused by the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, but from another perspective. Mr. Thanawoot, is that before World War I, there was a bank system shutdown for about 6 months, and a trading system shutdown. In the stock markets in both Europe and America. The reason was that European banks, whether British, French, or German, had lent to the Ottoman Empire and lent to the Russian Empire, and there was a default on those bonds. This caused the impact to affect the banking crisis in Britain, France, and Germany, who were the lenders.
>> Therefore, the bankers designed it to create a larger conflict in order to transfer the risk from the banks to the people of each country.
>> Yes, and this time, the origin of the war also involves the banking sector, doesn't it?
>> This time, it involves two things: the banking sector and the rise of new technology. Which is currently in a competition called what? A horse race, where you have to measure who is at the tip of the nose, who will overtake in this period. And if we look at the big picture analysis, we will see that this year will be the starting point of entering a new industrial era. And entering a new industry is a starting point that is interesting. Mr. Thanawoot, which is that the United States and China will go their separate ways.
>> Yes.
>> Going in different directions in terms of technology, which we will discuss in detail later.
>> Yes. Actually, apart from trade wars, tariff wars, and power grabs, what other origins or weapons will they use to fight in the future that are concerning?
>> Uh, in terms of using violence, and unseen things like infiltrating countries around the world, and causing economic crises worldwide. Most countries want their currency to weaken. But we have seen that in the past 2-3 years, there has been a situation called the weakening of the dollar.
>> But if we compare the dollar with the baht and various currencies, we will see that the dollar has clearly weakened, and it has weakened even more severely when compared to the price of gold and some commodities like silver, platinum.
>> Yes. And will it continue to weaken, or will we see a reversal from the US?
>> Both can happen. It can happen that they return to being a new superpower. That means they have to win the war with Iran. They will be able to stand strong again, and the rejection of the dollar from elsewhere will decrease. First. Second, they must go through or manage this economic crisis. Which is not an easy round at this moment.
>> Yes. In your opinion, between fighting Iran and solving the US economic problems, which should be done first?
>> It's a matter of solving them together. Because right now, the problem with America's internal banking system is also...
>> ...clearly showing its fragility. Since the beginning of the year. Although initially, I thought it would happen around the second or third quarter. But at the start of the year, we've already begun to see it.
>> Therefore, it will be a catalyst for Mr. Trump to have to do something to become the number one superpower again. And that includes increasing their power in terms of war.
>> Yes. The problems in the US banking industry are starting to show, but are they at a point where they will erupt into a major, widespread problem?
>> Hmm, I think the scale of damage is quite high. At this point, there are two things behind the problems of the US banking system. First is the US Treasury bonds that banks hold. Because normally, we deposit money in banks, right? Banks don't know what to do with it, so they deposit it in government bonds, which are quite safe. But when interest rates were raised, which was surprising in the last rate hike, it took only 18 months to raise interest rates from 0.25 to 5.25. Which is a very short time. And as we discussed last time, I think the Federal Reserve might have to lower interest rates at least twice. But they missed the third cut. When they missed the third cut, what happened? The bond market didn't respond. And the lack of response shows the real problem that the Federal Reserve might not be able to control interest rates, similar to Japan. Where the mistake in Japan is that they control interest rates for the BOJ to follow.
>> Hmm. And what will happen will affect the economic growth rate of the US, and Mr. Trump will have to deal with it in many dimensions, won't he?
>> Yes. The dimensions happening right now are quite complex. And the problem will be very severe in the second and third quarters from now. As we saw at the end of last week, at the end of January, First Republic Bank and Trust went bankrupt. Although it was a small bank, the damage was only over 260 million. But it reflects one thing: that the regional banking system still has bigger problems waiting. As we discussed earlier, I thought it would happen around the second or third quarter. But now, it's a faster problem that has surfaced. And besides US Treasury bonds being a problem, there's another thing that smaller banks hold: real estate loans. That is, commercial real estate. They lend for office construction, mall construction, shopping malls. It turns out that these loans are worth about 1.88 trillion. And the regional banks, which are banks owned by each state, small operators, have lent about 70% of that 1.88 trillion.
>> Hmm.
>> So, we can see the scale. It's almost 10 times larger than the subprime crisis. At that time, subprime was only tens of billions. And it caused widespread damage of over 800,000 million. But now, it's about 70% of 1.88 trillion. At this point, why do I think this year will be a problem? Because during COVID, they lent at an interest rate of 2%, 2.5-3%, for 5 years. And this year is the year of what they call a large rollover. The market interest rate, or MBS interest rate, has risen to about 6-plus. So, these have the potential to adjust interest rates up to about 7-8%. This might be a big bomb. But what's hidden even worse than that is that the real estate they borrowed for, let's say they borrowed 100 million. It turns out that the rental income has decreased by about 40-60%, averaging half. So, the value of the asset has decreased. And the problem is that the 100 million cannot be rolled over at a value of 100 million. It has to be rolled over at half the value, which is 50 million. Where will they get the 50 million to top up? The bank's risk will be about 20% of 100 million. But there's a connection: the 30% that we put in as equity. For example, if viewers borrow from a bank to do a project, viewers have to put in 30% equity and borrow 70% from the bank. So, if it drops by 50%, the bank will be at risk for about 20 out of 100. But the other 30% that we put in as equity, in America, they do this: they borrow from private credit funds.
>> Yes.
>> In private credit funds from the back office, which is borrowing and making it a complex, meaning borrowing to make equity and then borrowing from the bank again. If it rolls over by 50%, the money borrowed from private credit will become zero immediately and will not be returned. This will connect to private credit funds, which are long-term funds. Those who hold them are state funds, foundation funds, retirement funds, insurance company funds. They will allocate a portion to lend to private credit funds, which we call high-risk investments.
>> Yes, that too.
>> If this time bomb explodes, the damage to the economy will be much more severe than in the past, won't it?
>> Uh, the damage will be right here. It will be in the small banks, the state banks, of which there are about 1,488 facing problems. But the seriously ill ones are nearly 600. And there will be events like last Friday, the 30th, where they suddenly declared bankruptcy. Now, there's still a problem that we see the FDIC will guarantee deposits up to 250,000, right? 250,000 dollars.
>> Yes.
>> Uh, the problem is that the FDIC's fund is about 0.5% of the estimated initial damage.
>> Which is less.
>> Which is less.
>> Yes.
>> But okay, we're not panicking. We might think that the Fed might...
>> ...top it up.
>> ...top it up. This is looking at it from the perspective that if they want to prevent the system from having problems. So, if the new Fed governor is a hawk, we might say they might use decisive problem-solving. We'll have to wait and see what happens in the future. But the problem hidden in the events of the past weekend, the bank failures, which are similar to Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank failing in 2023, where is the problem? Mobile phones.
>> Hmm. How so?
>> Normally, people rush to withdraw money, right? You'd see queues. But now, everyone transfers money via mobile banking.
>> Yes.
>> And the bank's reserves disappear, causing the bank to...
>> ...go bankrupt within 48 hours. That was the event in 2023, which is similar to the event in the past week. So, what to watch out for now is the use of mobile banking and the rush to withdraw money, to transfer money out of regional banks to JPMorgan, to Gensac, or to money market funds. This is something that banks are very concerned about now: whether money will flow out. Because currently, as of Friday the 30th, money has flowed out of the regional bank deposit system by as much as about 43%. This is something the Fed must manage, otherwise, it will collapse like dominoes.
>> Yes. The event that occurred on January 30, 2026.
>> Yes. Which, if panic occurs, it can spread beyond control and beyond the actual situation.
>> Yes. Yes. It will be a panic that might spread to other regions around the world as well, won't it?
>> Uh, right now, it should be within the American banking system first. But what will cause it to spread worldwide is the interbank lending rate in the US, or the old repo rate.
>> It might spike.
>> Hmm.
>> Which currently, the repo rate, compared to the reference rate recently announced by the Fed, is about 0.55% higher than the reference rate, which is higher than the market. And the Fed has been trying to inject liquidity into the system since October. Injecting liquidity, and the liquidity injected is higher than during the period before the pandemic. Last time, we saw in 2019, liquidity suddenly disappeared from the system, and everything ended with the pandemic and a severe stock market crash at that time. At that time, the stock market, bond market, and commodity market all crashed. And the Fed had to increase its balance sheet by trillions of dollars during that period. So, there are already signs that since October, the Fed has been injecting liquidity into the system continuously to prevent this interest rate from spiking.
>> Yes.
>> But if this event happens, and compared to 2008 when the panic occurred, this interest rate spiked to about 7%. If it spikes to 7%, it will have an impact on US bond yields, and it will have a severe impact on global bond yields immediately. And most importantly, what will fluctuate the most is the exchange rate. The exchange rate will fluctuate quite violently if anything happens with bank failures this time, compared to 2008.
>> Yes. What is the probability of it happening, and can the US government control it?
>> I think the government knows about this. But checking the numbers, I think it should have happened around the third quarter for small banks to fail. But this happened in the first month of the year, and in Chicago, which shouldn't have happened. So, we don't know if, using Jamie Dimon's words, there's one cockroach, and we don't see any others. Preliminary analysis suggests there are about 30-40 more banks facing this problem. For example, in American banks, there was a bit of cheating. They should have recorded losses on the government bonds they held. But they thought this was still an unrealized accounting entry. So, the bank didn't fail. But as soon as there was a rush to withdraw, they had to sell those assets, especially US Treasury bonds, which are highly liquid. This will cause the bank to realize losses, meaning they have to assess that there are actual losses.
>> And when you combine US Treasury bonds with the impending rollover war this year, which is a very big year, it leads to failures and rapid takeovers.
>> Yes. But the US doesn't have just these problems. There are many other issues.
>> Yes. Especially the enormous debt. How many ways are there to solve this?
>> Uh, right now, the Trump administration is lying to its people, saying they will start a trade war by taxing competing countries. But in reality, it's like they are lying to the people because, in the end, the people are the ones who pay. For example, on my last trip to America, I happened to dine at a Thai restaurant and spoke with them. They said the price of imported food, the ingredients, are so expensive that they can barely sell anything and make a profit. In the end, these prices have to be adjusted upwards.
>> Which, in the end, the person who buys the goods is the one who...
>> ...bears the burden.
>> Bears this burden. And the increased expenses. It's simple, like they increased VAT.
>> Yes.
>> So, everyone who buys goods in that country has to pay more VAT. But this is a trade tax. If we buy goods there, we have to pay this tax. So, Mr. Trump is very proud that he collected so much tax this year. But that means the cost of living for Americans has increased. This is actually another way to solve the problem. But because of the US's high expenses, and the very high cost that follows this year is interest. Because last year's interest payments were a rollover during the period since the subprime crisis, where they kept interest rates at 0-0.25. And all of it was mostly a rollover last year, 9 trillion dollars. And the rate at which the Treasury has to pay interest back will be much higher than last year, every year. And this has risen to about one-third of the government's annual expenses. And if this year, they have to build it up again at new interest rates, it will become a problem that they will have increased fiscal burden. And where will they get the taxes to pay for it? So, that's the problem that Mr. Trump has to find a solution through other means.
>> Yes. And will the solutions to this debt spill over into war, or involve other assets in the world?
>> Uh, I think it will be like World War I and World War II. Because actually, we think it's a matter of global politics.
>> But the banking system behind world governments is the one that wants that war to happen. So that...
>> ...there is a theory of problem-solving.
>> ...that says you have to create a bigger problem, and the existing problem will become smaller.
>> Yes.
>> This is one of the theories used in World War I and World War II.
>> But if we see that since the Russia-Ukraine war, it has reduced the credit of the United States. For example, Russia is not fighting Ukraine. Russia is fighting NATO, with NATO soldiers and weapons from the US being sent in. We have seen that in the prolonged conflict of about 4 years, Russia has consistently lost. And Russia has shown its weapon capabilities, which are called highly efficient in many forms. This has reduced the credit of the US. And what has reduced credit the most is Iran's attack on Israel. In just 12 days, it caused very high damage to Israel. So much so that the US had to beg for planes to pass through and drop a bomb, and then we'll be at war. Because if it's more than that, Israel will have to use a stronger strategy, which is to launch nuclear bombs at Iran. They don't want it to reach that point yet. But now, America is using the method of sending a fleet to intimidate.
>> Hmm.
>> The problem is this. If they send it to intimidate, the problem is not sending it to intimidate, but the problem is how it will turn out.
>> If, for example, they send it and nothing happens, they reach an agreement, and so on. This time, Iran is the side that doesn't want any agreement that puts them at a disadvantage. So, what we will see this week is how Mr. Trump will find a way out. Because if they retreat further, the bond market will spike, and the dollar will weaken because of the event where they are called unable to be a superpower by sending a large fleet.
>> By sending a large fleet. Now, if they want to create an event for the world to see, there have been leaked news that they contacted and said, "If so, let's shoot bombs at each other, make an agreement, and then stop."
>> Yes.
>> And Iran has already announced that they will not negotiate this.
>> Hmm.
>> This time, we see that in creating internal chaos in Iran earlier this year, there was internal chaos. We saw that it was the work of outsiders who went in to create chaos there. And Iran has already suppressed it. This makes it a result that they will not choose to negotiate.
>> Yes.
>> So, from this perspective, if both sides are happy, it will have no impact on the bond market. But if it goes worse, there will be a war.
>> Hmm.
>> And a submarine sinks, or an aircraft carrier sinks. That's called the most expensive insurance line in the world.
>> It will cause US interest rates to spike violently immediately. And the dollar will fall. Because once, before World War I, the Russian Empire, which had been great for 300 years, if you think about how great it was, imagine America at this time. Losing the war to Japan, bond prices, interest rates, spiked immediately. And the currency, the Russian ruble, fell sharply from losing the war. So, in this model, it will be similar if anything happens to the US. Therefore, the only way out...
>> ...is to crush Iran completely.
>> Will we see that, Professor?
>> Look at this. Palestine, a small area. And Israel is one of the five most militarily capable in the world. It still took 2 years, and everything went back to the beginning. And Iran, an area almost as large as the United States.
>> Yes.
>> But if the US retreats, it's not beneficial in any dimension, not for any of its assets. They have to fight. The biggest enemy of the US right now is only one thing: time.
>> Hmm.
>> The longer it drags on, the worse it will be for the US.
>> We will see one thing: the situation in the country is escalating. Banks are closing news. Anything that happens, they quickly close it. We saw that last Friday, the 30th, was very small news, almost no one talked about it. But this is news suppression. And the Treasury has to buy bonds in every weekly auction, and in quite high volumes, because no one wants to hold US bonds.
>> Yes.
>> And there will be selling from Japan, China, and many countries, increasing and increasing. In this situation, time will make the US a loser in every dimension.
>> Yes. Are there any other solutions? Gold, which has been accumulated in large quantities.
>> Yes.
>> Could it be a way to solve their debt?
>> There was a case where the White House issued Executive Order 6102 during that time. It announced a price adjustment for gold, from about $20.83 per ounce to $35 per ounce.
>> Yes.
>> The whole world was confused, right? Did they devalue the currency?
>> Uh.
>> Like today, when the price of gold has risen by 5,000 plus or minus. Is gold expensive, or has the currency depreciated, or has the currency actually depreciated and we don't realize it?
>> Hmm.
>> Actually, all currencies in the world have depreciated without us realizing it. And there will be 2-3 more cases to follow. So, in the case of Executive Order 6102, it was a devaluation, but it was talked about in terms of the price of gold.
>> Yes.
>> The most important weapon for the US right now is gold, the 8,500 tons they have.
>> If they reduce it to $10,000 per ounce, it will be collateral for US debt instruments by about 10%.
>> Yes.
>> But if we think like the White House thought, to make gold cover the debt by 40%, they would have to raise it to $40,000 per ounce.
>> Per ounce of gold.
>> Yes. $40,000, which is almost 9-10 times higher.
>> Oh, yes. And how much debt would that cover?
>> It would cover their debt by 40%. 40%.
>> Ah, but the value of currencies would decrease compared to gold. This will be a big problem because what follows the rise of gold is that commodity prices will increase. We see that gas prices, oil prices, have increased considerably in the past few months. And what has risen a lot is the price of beef. Fortunately, the price of eggs has decreased. But what will follow commodities and all consumer food prices is interest rates.
>> Yes.
>> Today, we see that Japan cannot control interest rates. In Europe, and in the US, they have entered a state where they may not be able to control interest rates. And inflation, which everyone has not had the chance to assess, usually when we talk about inflation, it's things getting more expensive, right? But this inflation will be very bad. It will be inflation from the severe depreciation of currency. Because last year, the leading factor was the rise in the price of gold and platinum.
>> Yes.
>> Platinum and silver. These are indicators that global inflation will be uncontrollable. The rise in gold, I always say it should rise slowly, which is better inflation. But now, we see a quite steep graph, and it exploded during Friday the 30th night, and on Monday morning, it continued to adjust downwards.
>> But on Friday the 30th, there was another event: the case of silver being dumped from about 115. JP Morgan Chase closed its short position in silver at the absolute low.
>> Coincidence?
>> Coincidence, right? And they control the silver market quite largely.
>> Yes. And what's hidden in Silver Futures is that the futures price in the US dropped to about 78, if I remember correctly. 78 silver per ounce. But the price of silver in the spot market is... We don't just have the spot market. Now we have spot futures at about 100, early 100s. Which is a difference of about 30-plus percent. So, as a result, on Monday morning, the price of silver jumped up to 85. But JP Morgan closed its short position on Friday the 30th. And it closed at the absolute low. This shows that there is a network involved in speculating on both gold and silver prices.
>> That's why the graph is so steep. But the price of gold, the correct price, not the speculative price, should be around $4,500 to $5,000. In baht, I think it's around 68,000 to 73,000 baht. And I pray that it stays sideways for a while. It has risen so strongly that it's tiring. But it is predicted that by the end of the year, the price of gold will reach almost 100,000.
>> 100,000 baht per baht of gold.
>> Per baht of gold.
>> Which would correspond to about $7,000 for spot gold, perhaps?
>> It might depend on the exchange rate. It might be around 6,000-plus or something like that, because the dollar will weaken further, which will make our baht stronger.
>> Therefore, the critical point during February is whether the United States will go to war with Iran.
>> Uh.
>> If it stops, the price of gold will adjust downwards first, and then adjust upwards again.
>> Yes.
>> But if America and Iran go all out, the price of gold and oil will surge. Because the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf is a source of oil exports, about one-third of the world's total volume.
>> Yes.
>> When there is a war there, oil exports will disappear, and the price of oil might be seen at $100 per barrel and above during that time if that event occurs. And this is why Mr. Trump rushed to deal with Venezuela. Because if anything happens in the Middle East, America will have a problem with insufficient oil. Although the quality of Venezuelan oil is not very good, it produces a lot of tar after refining, but it's necessary to have it.
>> Yes. What will be the supporting factor for gold to reach about 100,000 baht per baht of gold, besides this?
>> Uh, the depreciation of financial assets, especially US Treasury debt. This is the main factor causing this event. And then, we have to see if the Fed, the current chairman or the new one, will inject more money into the system. Currently, they might inject through financial institutions to prevent interest rates from rising, in terms of bank liquidity. But the problem is that after this, will they inject QE again? If they inject QE again, it will be different from the previous QE. Because this QE injection will push the price of gold up further.
>> Yes. So, you believe that the correction in gold, a sharp drop of $1,000, and gold in our country dropping by about 10,000 baht per baht of gold, is not the end of the cycle or the end of gold?
>> It's due to extreme speculation, very extreme speculation, and the use of margin and leverage that is quite high. When the price of gold or silver is pushed down to the stop-loss point, it flows. But what is also reflected is a graph called the US Dollar Index. If the US Dollar Index falls, it will cause the price of gold to rise. So, when the price of gold surged from $4,000 to $5,600, the dollar index graph fell, and the price of gold rose sharply. In the same way, but what's strange is that on Friday and Monday, the dollar index did not rise, while the price of gold fell by $1,000. This means it wasn't due to actual buying or selling.
>> Hmm.
>> It was due to what is called forced selling by only a few groups. Therefore, the desire to exchange dollars to make the dollar index rise in the same direction as gold did not result in an increase. So, it's just a normal stop-loss, pushing it to the point of forced sale because there is no liquidity in the system to absorb these assets. This is worrying. But what is worrying is not the price of gold. Because ultimately, spot gold will lead gold, called paper gold or the largest gold futures. Spot is the leader because there is actual buying.
>> But this liquidity will be reflected back in the US Treasury bond market.
>> Yes.
>> In the second week of January, there was a day, on Thursday the 2nd. There was a gap in US bond trading, or what is called a trading freeze, for almost 25 seconds.
>> Yes.
>> There were no bids or offers to buy in the trade. This has never happened with the most liquid asset in the world. Among all assets, US Treasury bonds are considered highly liquid, and there has never been such a "dead air" before. This reflects that the actual liquidity, the condition called tightness, is likely to become increasingly strained.
>> Yes. So, what will happen to US Treasury bonds in the future? And what are the opportunities for investors this year, including bonds?
>> Uh, right now, the US might have to increase, meaning keep interest rates, but the bond market itself might have to adjust its prices upwards. But the Fed will lose control. Right now, if we invest in US bonds, or invest in US dollar money market funds, this is not the answer at this moment. But where is the answer?
>> The answer is in money market funds in Swiss francs.
>> Hmm.
>> Because currently, the Swiss franc, compared to the dollar, is exchanged at about 1.1 or 1.2 dollars per Swiss franc.
>> Yes.
>> Now, it has risen to 1.3.
>> Yes.
>> At 1.33, those who convert from Swiss francs back will benefit. And if we compare it with interest rates, the difference is small. But compared to the safe-haven status of currencies, Swiss franc money market funds are still more interesting at this moment.
>> In this first quarter?
>> Yes. From now until everything is resolved, and we wait for the US to... interest rates to rise significantly. For example, if the banking system has problems.
>> Yes.
>> If there are more severe problems, we will see short-term interest rates spike to about 6 or 7%. When short-term interest rates spike to 6 or 7%, US bond yields, especially 30-year bonds, which are over 30 years, will fall sharply.
>> Yes.
>> Those holding 30-year bonds might lose 30-50%. But that means a 30-50% decrease in interest rates of more than 7%. And if the Fed uses the same method as in 2008, pushing interest rates down to 0%, the return will immediately rebound, possibly yielding 80-150% from the rebound in interest rates due to the Fed's reduction. Whether it will reduce or not, we'll have to see. But this is from the perspective of speculators who speculate on bond prices.
>> Yes. And can individual investors do this kind of critical assessment, or can Thai investors seek opportunities under the risk of bankruptcy or profit?
>> Uh, it's very easy to do. The global trading system now allows trading in all markets. And short-term, medium-term, and long-term bonds are all available through ETFs.
>> Yes. So, you can trade in the US market, any market. Therefore, the opportunities for investors are open, unlike during the crises in Greece, Turkey, or Sri Lanka. At that time, it was too small for retail investors to enter. So, now, it's something that people worldwide can participate in. However, the timing of entry requires knowing the game of bond price movements and their relationship with interest rates. And we also need to know that when there are bank runs or bank failures, short-term interest rates will spike, and this will cause long-term interest rates to rise, resulting in a sharp decline in bond prices. And at that time, we can enter long-term bonds if the Fed has a tendency to lower interest rates. This will yield higher profits than the stock market.
>> Yes.
>> We have to read the game clearly and act quickly.
>> Yes. Yes. If it's challenging.
>> If we know the time, if we know how the model works, we can act on it immediately.
>> Yes. Other assets, like silver. It was quite hot last year. What are your thoughts on this year, Professor?
>> Yes. Silver, I might look at it more from a speculative perspective than gold. Because gold, at one point, after becoming a security, it is classified as a security. So, when there are laws and regulations, I still give gold a percentage as equivalent to cash, and perhaps even stronger than cash. Even though we are taught that it is a commodity, the law has changed to classify it as a security. So, gold will be like a reserve asset, which silver is not yet. Platinum or white gold is not yet. I still think it will rise in price, but it's just mixed with speculation.
>> Yes. But gold itself is an asset that many countries use as reserves more than the dollar now, isn't it? Will this be another factor supporting gold to be strong?
>> Yes. Currently, central banks around the world are continuously selling US Treasury bonds. We must use the word "not throwing them away carelessly." They are selling them and converting them into gold instead. This is what central banks worldwide are doing. And in January, because the price of gold rose, the value of gold as a reserve asset for central banks has surpassed that of US Treasury bonds.
>> Yes. Therefore, gold will continue to be an asset worth investing in this year.
>> Uh, worth holding for the long term, not focusing on speculation. Because anything can happen. I define this year as a year of unpredictability. A year where nothing can be predicted. Therefore, speculation will cause us severe losses because we don't know what might suddenly happen in the US. If, for example, a bank run occurs, there will be changing factors. Or if Iran and America start shooting at each other, it will surge. But if they decide, "Okay, let's not do this, let's pack up and go home," after fishing is done, it will fall sharply. Everything can happen unpredictably. Therefore, what I recommend is not that this year is a year for speculation, but a year for asset-backed security. Meaning, we hold assets to protect against risk. And the best risk protector is gold. But what we see is that speculation is mixed in.
>> Yes. Now, oil prices are also an asset that has been quiet for a long time.
>> Yes.
>> Yes. What are your thoughts on this year, given the geopolitical unrest in various continents? Will it accelerate oil prices, or not?
>> This year, there is a risk of oil prices accelerating. But the question is, to what extent? If there is no war in the Middle East, oil prices might rise to $60-70. But if it happens in the Middle East, we will likely see $85-100 or more, because it affects production capacity by one-third of the world, and it cannot be replaced by other sources immediately.
>> Yes. So, we will have to wait and see.
>> Wait and see. [Music] [Music]