Transcription
[Music] [Music]
What's going on everyone? It is Wick here. We're gonna give everyone just about two minutes to join the stream and then we're going to start the stream. And it is on how to exit bull markets, but it's also going to be uh just a reminder as well on how to also just place exits in general. So again, we'll give this uh about 2 minutes and get started.
For those of you that are in the room, can you do me a favor? Could you go into that comment section and just give me an okay if you can hear me perfectly or any critiques if the volume is not coming through well, just let me know if everything is going good, please. Oh, you like that? You like that uh startup music back country? Actually made had Jess make that about a year ago. Okay, cool.
Well, I'm glad everyone's in the room again. Welcome here to the trading alpha streams. It's on how to exit bull markets. So the first thing that we're going to talk about right is we're going to start just really, really basic and that is to make sure that whenever you're ready to exit a bull market that you have your procedure down pat. That's the most important thing. Okay, what do I mean by procedure? You should go through and run through a list and pretend that you're going to sell your crypto and make sure that you are crossing all your eyes and dotting all your tees because let me tell you when time comes to sell and emotions are high, you will you will be surprised at how little um how many mistakes you can make.
So the procedure has to have have to do with make sure that you have your wallets ready. Okay? So if you're going to sell crypto, have your wallets ready, know what they are. It's a good idea to label those wallets as well. Okay, that's what I do. I label my wallets, making sure I know exactly what is on each wallet so that way when I plug it in, I already know exactly what I'm going to do. Okay, make sure that you have your bank account linked with your exchange. Okay, unless you like keeping all your hard-earned money on your exchange, I don't like to do that. Okay, so I already have my bank account linked to my exchange. And then another thing you want to ask yourself is what exchange are you going to use to sell your crypto? And this is Big Alpha right here, guys. If you're stuck on Coinbase, okay, and you make a mistake and you don't go through their um uh uh one profile, it could cost you a lot of money, okay? There's a lot of good exchanges out there, even in the US, that don't charge an arm and a leg with fees. Okay? I can give you quite a few. Kraken, uh Gemini is very cheap. Okay? I know a lot of my friends who will might buy on Coinbase if they're caught off guard, but they always send their money to Gemini. A lot of them do and they sell on Gemini to make sure they don't get pretty much raped on fees. Okay, so that should go over the procedure. I just want to make sure you guys understand exactly what you're going to do when you sell and you're not caught off guard trying to find passwords, you know, or having to get your codes.
The next thing we're going to talk about is what type of exit are you going to use? Okay, what type of exits are there in a market? So, if you're in this bull market here, you got to ask yourself how are you going to exit? There in my opinion are three ways to exit. There's time where like let's say you're looking at cycles and you can say okay well I know that a lot of the cycles end near during the uh end of the year. So come December no matter what happens I'm going to sell at that price because I'm already up in a lot of profit and I want to protect that profit. There's nothing wrong with a timed-based sell strategy. Okay. Um, another way it could be time based is let's say that you're just in a lot of profits and you don't want to sell all your crypto, but you want to sell just enough to make a lifestyle change, right? Let's say you want to pay off a house or, you know, pay off that mortgage or that car note. Um, you should be able to reward yourself for holding through a whole market cycle. So, don't be scared if you want to take some what they call lifestyle chips off the table as R refers to them. Okay? So, time time is definitely a way to choose an exit. Okay?
The next two ways to choose an exit are stop-loss and indicators. Okay, stop-loss and indicators. So, we're going to go over that. Um, I know you guys are probably going to ask me or wonder as I'm going through all this, well, you know, Wick, what do you do? Well, I have a whole topping system. My topping system consists of price action, um, macro, uh, the business cycles and liquidity, and then of course market cycles. Okay? And sometimes I might look at sentiment, but mostly it's price action and that macro framework. Okay, that's what I'm looking at to line up for myself.
So, let's talk about stop-losses. What types of stop losses are there? Let's say that I give you guys the signal or not the signal, but I come to you and I say, "Listen, guys, all the red bells are going off for me, and I'm going to do this for you Alpha Bundle members. I think it's the the market's over. I'm going to start looking at exiting is what I'm going to doing. I'm going to tell you guys that whenever I think the market is over, that's what you get for being an Alpha Bundle member." So half the work at least if you trust my framework which could be wrong um is done for you. Okay, but you still have to know how to exit your positions. So let's look at the different types of stop losses. All right, I'm going to go ahead and grab my horizontal array right here. Okay, so this draws a line. And what I like to do sometimes for stop-losses is let's use this monthly chart of Bitcoin because it's so clean and it gives good examples here. Okay, so let's say that you're in this stage one basing pattern. Let's say you missed both of these B's. Ah, damn it. I missed those. I didn't see, you know, Wix post. I bought the alpha bundle late. You see the squeeze shading. You think to yourself, this could be the start of a brand new market cycle. We've waited 3 years. This is about the right timing. The having is right here somewhere. Boom. There's that breakout arrow. There's your long position. If you didn't, just go straight off the green dot on the macro framework. Okay, so you're in this position. What I like to do, well, I like to set a stop loss starting off below my position, okay? To give my position a little bit of room to run. But let it be known. Here's a rule for you guys, especially if you're new. If you're going to make a trade, I want you to put that stop-loss on on every trade right after you hit that buy button. It should be the very first thing you do. And uh you should already know where your stop loss is going to be before you make the trade. That's how you guys should be um structured and just ready. Okay.
So, I'm going to put my stop loss. Let's say I get in the position right here. Here's the bar. I put my stop loss just below the support here, meaning that the support has to fail for it to take me out. That's a good risk versus reward. We start going up. I'm right on my position. Okay. But now we're going up higher and my stop loss is all the way down here. Let's say it's right over here. Okay. That's where my stop loss is. I put it just below support and I'm entering right here. It's going up. But now, what do I do? My stop loss is down here. Well, a good strategy is looking for something called pivot lows. So, you see how this price action comes down. Boom. It makes a pivot low here and then it confirms the pivot low by heading up. Okay? So, when you see that and we have this bar here going up right here, this is just confirm that pivot low. You can now take that stop loss or I like to do it sometimes and put it right below that pivot low. Boom. We go up. We go down. We make a pivot low. What's the first bar to close after the pivot low? Right here. Signals that the pivot low is in. It is that wick right there. We now take our stop loss. Let me move it just below there. Boom. It goes up. We're still waiting for this to make a pivot low. Okay. So, let's say that you think that this is near the end of the cycle. Nothing stopping you from taking the stop loss and just putting it just below that support there. Okay. Or you can wait for the next pivot low. So, this is called a static stop-loss, guys. Static because it stays right wherever you put it. Right wherever you put that stop loss, it's going to stay right there. Static stop-loss. Okay. Now, I like to use a static stop-loss and manage that static stop-loss. Again, below pivot lows is a really good strategy even if you're not exiting a bull market. But since we're talking about exiting, this is what I would do here on this monthly chart if I was investing and trying to exit an investment. Okay? So, that's called a stagnant stop-loss. All right.
Um, next we're going to move to different ways of using a stop-loss. A lot of people also, if they're very basic, they might even use moving averages. Okay. So, as you put moving averages on your chart and the price action goes up, eventually when it drops down, they'll say, "Okay, if it tags that moving average again, I'll get out." That's another way. I've never used it, but I want to let you guys know.
The next type of stop-loss, okay, the one that I use. So, what do I do? I look at a framework as I told you I have a whole topping system where I look at market mark market cycle tops based upon cycles based upon price action and also throwing in there a little bit of macroeconomics once those signals go off for me and says hey wick it's flashing now is the time then I start looking at adding a stop-loss just in case the market wants to run up a little bit higher I'm not going to stop myself from having exposure to that right so what I'm going to do is this Me personally, I'm going to turn on my wick stops. Here's my stop loss. It's these red dots. And every bar that prints, let's say we're right here. Every bar that prints, it's going to print a red stop-loss dot a little higher, a little higher, a little higher, a little higher. Why do I love this type of stop-loss? Because it forces the price action to move or eventually take me out, right? Because when that price action falls below those red dots, it takes me out of the position. That's my stop-loss system, okay? Forcing the price action to keep moving up or to take me out. That way, I can rotate my capital back into a stage two, something that's working, possibly in a different market. That's what I'm going to do when the bull market ends for crypto. I'm going to go out of the market. I'm going to find something else that's in a stage two, rotate my capital, and wait for that bull market to start back up by the blood with you guys. Maybe mid to late 2026 if we're lucky. All right. So, that's how I manage my stop losses. Now, sometimes I will switch to a static stop-loss. For those of you guys that watch me short the uh last uh uh bare market, you watch me use a static stop-loss. I didn't use these advancing stop-losses that I haven't read. I use a static. So, I switch between these two methods. And a lot of times, I'll just use this to do the work for me. That way, it takes all of the emotion out of the problem. And again, as you can see here, we're still in this move. If you had gotten in, I guess this green dot here. I guess you can see one of my entries here. Um, so that's my stop loss, guys. That's how I use them.
And then there's one last way to use stop-losses. Okay, we've gone over all of them. We've gone over the best ways. The next way is simply to use the indicators. Okay, you know what I'm talking about, guys? Once we go into these parabolic advances, what is the one thing I say that you should really know when we have that those parabolic advances? How about you guys give me an answer? Anyone want to give me an answer? What am I talking about? Using indicators on parabolic advances. What am I looking at? I know one of you guys remembers. My brain has been pivot blown. Newton says those those pivot lows are pretty awesome, aren't they? Follow the dots. Okay. T and other things says follow the dots. Yes. Petrol say petrol head says stay in until the green dots stop. Petrol head. That's funny. You must be from the UK because I haven't heard the word petrol which means gas. So petrol head. He's a gas head. He's a car guy. But yes, stay in until the green dots stop. Okay, so let's look at this. You can see this previous cycle. Here's a stage two parabolic advance. The dots end right here. Okay, and that could be a good time to exit the market. People might say, "Oh, well, wick, you know, the top of the market was right here, and you're exiting on this candle when the dot stop." Absolutely right. Do you know that you're going to beat up probably close to 100% of the rest of the market if you had to exit on this candle right here? No matter where you did that, that is perfect. That means you avoided another 67, call it 70% draw down from that candle. Okay, so this is another way to exit markets. Why do you exit it this way? Well, guys, know that it's only when you have these parabolic advances. It has to be in a stage two parabolic advance. You got lucky. You got that breakout signal squeeze shading. You're in this move. Once it's going parabolic. The reason why I like to use those dots and wait for them to end as a good way is because when those dots end, it lets you know that the trend on the most micro scale is changing from bullish to neutral. Okay? When we're in a parabolic advance, you should have nothing but a super strong trend the whole way. The only time that this trend starts to weaken in a parabolic advance is when it's ending. That's why I look at the dots. That's why I wait for them to end. It's the soonest signal that that trend is changing. That's why after this, it went straight down. This was the parabolic move. This was it. Once this is over, starts to weaken, you got a high probability that that parabolic advance is starting to end. Okay, so that's your ways, guys. You have time stops based upon time. Um, you know, maybe you have got a personal event that you got coming. Um, you got to raise some capital for some reason or you want to take some lifestyle chips off the table. You got your stop losses that are stagnant. I showed you with the pivot lows. You got your beautiful wick stops that I'm going to release this at some point. I promise. In fact, I was just waiting for that phantom indicator to be done. I've got this. I've got the stop-loss indicator. And here you guys go for the first time. I'll let you know. I've got a topping signal. That is a cycle topping signal that I've been keeping from everyone perfecting in the background. And that is what I've been trying to really just finish. And once I finish that, this will be the next week for you guys. stop losses, uh, market cycle topping signal, and our phantom indicator. Okay, guys, are there any questions here? Of course, the last, uh, a stop method is indicators we went over. Is there any questions on any of these forms of stop losses? Okay, I'll wait a minute. If there's any questions, let me know. Okay, but other than that, guys, that is the way you're going to exit a bull market. Okay. Uh, if you want to do your own framework and look at the um macroeconomics and the liquidity cycles, you can look at that. That gives you about a 3-month lead maybe 70% of the time, 60% of the time. Then it's up to price action. But it always falls on price action. Okay? And when I see those signals lining up, I will tell you guys whether I'm right or wrong, who knows? It's not investment advice, but I will share with you my analysis of when I think that this is over. And I at that point know will start switching to using a stop-loss. And a after I'm exited my positions, I'm then going to transition to the short wick or we're going to short the market or at least I'm going to short the market. And if you're experienced enough and feel comfortable enough, um, you're welcome to join me. But that is a very risky play. However, you can make a lot more money in a bare market in a lot quicker time frame than you can in a bull because prices drop faster than they climb.
All right, guys. I'm going to look if there's any questions here. This has been a good stream. I like this. I like being there for you guys when we have shitty down days like this where everyone's freaking out. There's no reason to freak out. All right, let me see here. When the dots are green, hell yeah. What's the best time frame for this? Okay, so Scott says, "What's the best time frame for this?" Scott, this all depends on what your goal is as a trader, where you entered the market, and how quickly you like to make money. Okay, that sounds weird, but if you're a scalper and you're in and out of a lot of positions, you're going to use a low time frame. Let's call it 4 hours and down, right? Most likely 1 hour. I like the 15-minute and 1 hour. Um, of course, you're not talking about that, right? You're probably an investor or a swing trader, meaning that you might want to look at the daily time frame, weekly or monthly. In fact, all of you guys are probably going to be on that um that rule. Okay? If you're swing trading, okay, meaning that you're looking for trades that last from um let's call it weeks to uh days to weeks to 3 months, you're going to look at the daily chart and use these techniques on the daily chart. If you're a mid-time frame trader, you also might look at the weekly or if you're long-term, you might look at the monthly and the weekly. Okay? But this video is for exiting bull markets. So, for that purpose, we're going to use a weekly and a monthly time frame is what I will be watching personally. Okay? Okay, so that's what I would use.
Um, do we only exit when the green dots stop on the monthly time frame? Alec, that's a good question, right? And that comes down to personal preference because you can also you can always improve methods. Okay. Um, yes, I think that the easiest signal to to watch is the monthly when those dots stop. Okay, but they let's say we have a lot of volatility and you have a big wick here, a big candle. Okay, those dots are going to end before that candle closes. That is a decision that you're going to have to make as an Alpha Bundle member, whether you want to take a lot of risk and exit right before it closes or whether you want to wait for the exit. Okay? Waiting for the exit is a higher probability, but you might leave a little bit of room on the table. Okay? Don't be greedy. Higher probability always wins, but I do exit on a live bar most times, but that's because I'm more seasoned and I'm looking at a lot more things and probably have more confluence on what I think the market is doing. Okay. Uh, moving on here to the next question. Okay. Can't wait. Is this the top? This is not the top. There. Wick said it. Could be wrong, but nope, I'm not wrong. Um, is this the weekly time frame? It is. Thank you for this, Alpha Wick. You're welcome. Um, you do it only on the one month. I just answered that. Okay. Yes, Scott. The best time frame to watch the dots uh is going to be the weekly or the monthly depending on what asset you're you're watching. Uh, are you including wick stops in the alpha bundle? Are they based on percentage ratio? They are a proprietary indicator, James. And I will be including them in the new suite. Okay. I definitely uh put in a lot of work for Alpha Bundle members like this that are free. Uh, but when I make my indicators, I definitely want to get paid for releasing my my secret sauce. Uh, what does the phantom stop what does the phantom stop loss take into account? Uh, Matthew and James, of course. Um, you know, I'm not going to reveal any secret sauces ever, but I appreciate you guys being interested. Is this the top, bro? No, bro. This is not the top. Um, when watching the green dots to stop, do you wait for the candle to close? We just talked about that. Comes down to risk tolerance. I will do it on a live candle. You probably want to wait until the candle closes if you're new. Um, back country. Let's see. GME just bought a 22. Okay. Talking about liquidity. Can you tease the hodddle alpha system? Can you guys stop asking about the hollow alpha system? Give me time to perfect it. No. Okay. So, what he's talking about, guys, is I have been since 2017 creating a system that is a better way to huddle. I hated the fact that when I came into this space that people were telling me that they were just hodling and that's fine. Holding Bitcoin is a great idea. Great idea. Outperforms so many assets. But buying blindly every month, just buying because it's the first of the month or you got a paycheck. What a horrible way to to invest your life savings. Um there's definitely a better way to do this. I've been working on it again since 2017 and that is going to be the Hodddle Alpha project. Basically, what I'm going to do, guys, is I'm going to be trading that myself. Uh, again, it's a system I've been working on for a long time. I really believe in it, and I'm going to be sharing an open portfolio with you guys that's going to include alerts for every time that there's an entry made uh in that system. So, that way I have proof of concept. Uh, it's going to track the returns as well over time. Um, I really want to prove the system to everyone. And on top of that, uh, I'm going to have streams probably once every quarter to go over, um, I guess the entries in the portfolio and kind of give you some insight into why they made and give you some educational content as well. Okay? But that's going to be the huddle alpha system. And pretty much the goal is to beat huddling by a lot. Okay? And that is done with better entries.
Uh, moving on here, guys. Let's see. Um, what else? Time frame. Can you please look at XRP? Yeah, guys, I don't know if I'm going to do chart requests today. Are you using the monthly chart or daily? The monthly, guys. Sorry, just getting through all the questions. Uh, yep. Okay, so Ahmad, and sorry if I butcher anyone's name. I'm horrible at names. Ahmad says, "How much impact do the 89 momentum shift indicators have on your overall analysis?" Um, same with the yellow and red dots. So, he's talking about guys, if you're new, if you have the alpha uh LTF suite and htf suite, when you turn those on, um we have an indicator in here called eight and nines. Let's see, where are they? Right here. These eight and nines. So, let's tell you what these eight and nines do. So, what these eight and nines do, they simply count updates. So, when there's eight or nine updates in a row, 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9. nine updates in a row, it lets you know because it's a mean reversion trade, meaning that it's telling you that it's overbought and we should come down some. Okay, the opposite is for the green bullish eight nines. It means that there's 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 nine down days in a row. So, we're expecting a little bit of a reversal. I do not trade with the eight and nine indicators. I know a lot of people that do, including people like RA and stuff like that. I've got no interest in them. There's much better ways to do things, but it's there and there are a lot of people that use it. Okay, that's the 89 system. And then you're talking about there's X's, yellow and red X's. Just know those goes with the breakout arrows. Read the docs guide. We send out the docs guide to everyone that buys the alpha bundle. Amod should be in your emails. It is a wealth of knowledge, guys. If you're new and you're just now getting that docs guide, I promise you if you love my streams, there's more golden information in that docs guide than you're ever going to find in these streams, definitely read it. And the best people that perform the best out of alpha bundles uh trading alpha is the people that read that docs guide more than once. Okay. Uh moving on here to the next questions. Are the bottom signals live? Uh yes. So these bees are live. They don't they do not print. Look, my system was made for me to make money. None of our signals print after a bar closes. You're always going to get dots as the bar is live. You're always going to get bottom signals as that bar is live. You're always going to get breakout arrows as that bar is live. We're not here trying to almost cussed. We're not we're not trying to mess around here, guys. So, definitely they're all live and ready to go. Uh so, do you expect uh Q4 2025 top? understanding watching the charts. Jay, I'll reveal with you guys that I saw something that I didn't like in liquidity. It's funny cuz I said it before anyone in the whole market and then like a week later people said this. So, we're looking at November, December, January as being, you know, kind of shaky. Uh, but we have to confirm that in price action. Okay? I'm not a person that believes liquidity comes before price action. Price action is liquidity gives me an idea of what might happen and to pay attention to make sure if it does happen, I'm ready. Understand? Okay. All right. So, as far as 2025 Q4, uh, I'm watching for it, right? Price action is going to confirm it and I will let you guys know and you will know how to exit the market after I do. Moving on to the next questions here, guys. Yes, I take care of Alpha Bundle members. If you're new, welcome. What are your thoughts? Chinese companies uh looking like starting stage two uptrends. No idea. Not watching Chinese companies. I'm watching my P&L and making sure that I exit this the right way. Uh, let's see. Any thoughts on hyper aster hype? You know, I did like hype. There was a few things I didn't like about it. We can go on that on about that another time. Uh, thanks for this. Okay guys, I guess that answers all the questions here. Uh, so that is the stream on exits. What what I can do here is I can probably go over the cycles. If there's anyone new in the stream or if you do want to hear stage analysis going over stage 1, two, three, and four, I can definitely do that before I leave. if I can get 10 people to say that they want to watch it. So, click type me in that box if you do want to see the stage analysis and I can end on that note. Okay, while we're waiting for answers here, guys, yes, I'll review. There's two things coming. If you do not hear the huddle alpha strategy, okay, that's going to be a whole separate thing from trading alpha. And of course, we have those three new indicators. the phantom indicator, the stop-loss that you see on my chart here, and then of course, um, we have my brand new cycle topping indicator. Guys, let's look at a few more charts before I go and then I'll do the stage analysis if there's enough requests.
Moving on to the next charts, we have S&P. Same thing here, guys. I actually had this so I could show you how to use stop-losses. You're in the stage two here. Boom. You can either exit when those dots stop, put all that profit on the books. You can set a stop loss and wait for a pivot low to move your stop loss. If you're more of a long-term trader, goes up, comes down. Boom. This candle signifies that um a pivot low, you move your stop loss. You move your stop loss just below it. Boom. Boom. Boom. Probably move that under that pivot low. Boom. Boom. This probably would have taken you out there. Okay, so that's how you play that pivot low on the S&P.
Moving on to the next chart. So this is uh one of the very few things in my framework on liquidity uh that uh a lot of people talk about. This is the business cycle. We call it the ISM. You can see here that the business cycle has been lagging. We've been wanting this to be in my up channels here. This was my framework. It has completely broken my framework and this is a longer extending cycle. Okay, that's what we're seeing here. But nonetheless, I'm still watching for those market topping signals.
Moving on, we have the dollar. I'm also watching the dollar, guys. If you're not a uh subscriber on X, that is perfectly okay. I love you Alpha Bundle members. You're my favorite. But if you are on X, you know that I'm watching this dollar chart. I'm wanting this to break below my support. I want a 90 to $93 uh DXY chart is what I want. I think that is the perfect framework for crypto to to really melt up. So, watch this chart. It's what I'm watching. We've had a few tests here into my support uh zone. This one was very good, but it's um taking a minute to eat through all of that demand. And I do think that we'll see a break below here, and that's when I think that the real leg starts. So, watch the dollar, guys. There's some alpha for you that I usually keep for the guys on X.
Salana. Okay, guys. Here's another one. Um, again, I want to make sure I take care of you alpha bundle members. This is a beautiful cup and handle pattern. We got faked out on this cup and handle. Actually, we had this here. Everyone thought that this was the cup and handle. Didn't take off. Little did we know that it's just a messy chart cuz crypto is volatile. And I believe that this is the cup and handle that we're waiting for. Okay. And currently, we're in a trend in a channel here. So, nothing abnormal about uh Salana. Everyone's freaking out because it pulled back, guys. It just pulled back from its supply zone. Look at that resistance. Every time that it's hit it, it's had a big nasty rejection. Hit it. Nasty rejection. Hit it. Nasty rejection. Okay, so that is supply that keeps getting eaten up. Every time that we hit that, we take those sell orders. We fill them. They're done. They're out of there. Okay, eventually this channel is going to hit this and break out. That's what we're waiting for. And that will happen this cycle in my opinion.
Moving on. Gold, guys. If you're not in gold, I've been playing gold. Gold is a absolute monster. It's really, really melting up here. when we pull up the um the phantom indicator. As you can see, it's been bullish the entire time. Okay, so this is really good. I should have pulled this up on the other charts.
Moving on here, coin. I wanted to point out, guys, if you're in Coinbase, get the hell out of Coinbase and get in hood. Okay, that's the exchange you want to be. The market has chosen its winner and it's not Coinbase. Sorry, uh Brian Armstrong.
Moving on. Tesla, guys. A lot of you guys have been asking me about Tesla. I do have exposure to Tesla. This is a beautiful breakout and if this does close in seven days above this resistance that is a very bullish structure and we will see a lot more upside.
Moving on to Rocket Lab. What can I say? Uh this is my baby here. Uh we got in this at $8 and I got in with size at $8. Okay, because I was already in the space sector. I've been in for a couple years. Been very excited about it. Um so yeah, this is doing very, very well and guys, I'm just holding as long as there's green dots. I'm not even running a stop-loss on the system. I think that this goes a lot higher. I'm looking to personally see if I can get 10x out of this around 76 to $80. There is my target.
All right, guys. Well, that's it for the stream. I really hope you guys enjoyed this. Here's Nvidia. Before I go, also make sure here we have a squeeze shading. This actually was a breakout arrow this morning and it's on the monthly chart. Okay, this will probably pay for all of your subscriptions cuz once this breaks out and that trend starts on the monthly chart, that means a lot higher pricing. Guys, thank you for joining me here. I really appreciate it. Please also know that if you are ready to renew or you're looking for that alpha screener, we do have a 25% off sale. It ends in the 29th. I believe today is the 23rd. Okay. So, if you want that discount to renew, get those bees, now is the time to do it. You know that price, that code, it's 25 off. Thanks for joining me. Now, let me just see if there's anybody that wants to see the cycles. I don't think that there was. Let's see. Okay. Me me. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10. Okay. Okay. Okay, guys. I'll stay I'll stay five minutes longer and we'll look at the cycles here. Okay.
So, one thing that you need to know when you're following um Trading Alpha and and me is that our technicals are the best in the market. You know that. But you should also know how to do stage analysis with the four stages because when you tie them together with our indicators, it's like a light bulb switch and then you start making a bunch of money. Really, honestly. Okay, so here we go. So, you're going to have a bare market. Okay, this is your bare market. We're going to do these in channels. Okay, bare market. Your price action is falling. Everyone's crying. Eventually, we hit a bottom. Okay, then we kind of test that bottom a few times. Okay, and now we see that we have resistance at the top that we can't go above and we finally made a support. Thank God everyone is so happy that this bare market is finally making a support. Okay, this bare market here, this channel was called stage four. stage four downtrend. This is the last part of the cycle. Then we start the cycle all over again in our basing phase. Our basing phase is called your stage one basing. Okay, stick with me here. So, starting a stage one basing, what do we know? We know that there's some support. There's some resistance. In fact, should I go and see if I can find the Bitcoin chart? Is it going to be too hard here? Um, yes. So, here you go. Perfect example here. Stage four downtrend. Finally, we find some basing. We got some support here. We got some resistance here that it can't get above. We've got our stage one basing channel or pattern. Okay. Um, moving on here, it starts to break out. Finally starts to break out. And that is not how you draw a breakout. It starts to break out here. And this is the start of the bull market. Okay? Once you break above this resistance, guys, you need to know this. You start your stage two uptrend. In fact, we call that breaking above that resistance stage two breakout. That is the perfect entry in the whole crypto market that you can get if you didn't buy the bees or that breakout arrow. Okay, that almost always comes here. In fact, if you want to look at that again, um here you can see there's the bees, there's the breakout arrow. It almost never fails. It's the best time to get in the market. Simply set your alerts when we're in a stage one basing pattern and you will have the perfect entry in the market. Okay, but let's talk about the stages, guys. We're going up now. We're starting a stage two uptrend. This is the parabolic advance. Okay, here we go. We hit resistance, support, resistance, support. Do this, maybe deviate a little bit, come back up. We're doing this. Okay, this is called a stage two uptrend. And this is the whole point of trading is to identify and catch as much stage twos as possible. And if you can do that, depending on how good you get at doing that, you can pretty much make all the money that you need to, right? You're because you're not wasting your time holding in a basing pattern. A lot of the old crypto guys from back in the day, like 2012, 13, 14, 15, they would identify these stage ones and just buy anywhere and they just wait. Okay? Never buy in a stage one if you don't have a signal a B or or a breakout arrow. Why? Because a stage one can base for days, for weeks, for months. I've even seen it base for years. And while you're staying there and waiting for this base, there's other assets that are breaking out into these stage twos. And eventually you get impatient. You sell here. You get into the stage two late and then all of a sudden your asset breaks out. Okay? So never buy stage ones and wait. Identify them. get you a signal, a bottom signal, breakout signal, or that official stage two breakout. Okay, we're talking about stage analysis. So, a stick on point. We're in a stage two uptrend eventually, and this might be where we are soon. We get to a point where price action gets a little bit exhausted. It hits a point and it can't go much further. Starts to hit support, maybe tests it one more time, can't reach there, lower high, support. Now, we can draw that support line. We got that resistance that it can't get above. This guys is called stage three. And it's the exact same as stage one. Stage three basing pattern, stage one basing pattern. You only got to remember four patterns, guys. And two of them are both basing patterns. Number one and number three. So, we might be getting here to stage three basing pattern. Once it starts basing sideways, this is also a good time. I'm glad I brought this up. This is also a good time to think about starting to exit a bull market. Why? Well, because you've made all of this profit and now your game is to protect it. You are the protector of this profit like a mother to its child. Okay? When this is bouncing here between stage three, you got to be careful because this could break below that support and then we start stage four. That's the stage over here before we start a whole new brand new cycle. Okay. So let's talk about stage three again. You want to avoid this, right? But at the same time, okay, so you want to avoid that. So what I like to do sometimes, a lot of times what I'll do is I'll sell 50%. In stage three, okay, so I'm here somewhere here. I still sell 50%. Why? Well, if it breaks below, I've only got 50% exposure of my profits. I already protected 50%. and the other 50% I'm always going to draw a stop loss somewhere below that support so that way if it does break below it it takes the other 50% out. I've taken this out full profit and just lost a little bit more of this 50% and avoided the whole stage four downtrend. Now what happens wick if we don't break down? What happens if we break up again? Good question because that can happen as well. We call this okay let's say it doesn't do that. Let's say instead it breaks out. Oh no, you sold 50% wick. Why did you tell me to do that? Well, because you treat this just like a stage two breakout all over again and get back in, baby. That's all you do. You take that 50%, you buy it right there, and you treat it just like the stage two breakout right here all over again. And that is how you manage cycles. Now, overlay our indicators into that, guys, and you don't have a better edge. You can't find it. I promise you. All right? Especially if you get good now, your only thing you need to perfect now is your stop losses. and we went over that today. So, go find some books on static stops, on active stop-losses, and decide how you want to exit. Okay? Or you can simply just get my stop-loss indicator when I release it and be ready for my signal that I think everything is coming to an end.
Guys, do I have any questions on the stage analysis? I have to go here in about 5 minutes. This has been a great stream. Thank you guys for joining. Uh, let's get these questions done and get you guys back to your jobs or to your families. I'll give it two minutes and I'll answer the questions on stage analysis here. I'll zoom out so you guys can see it. Me uh call this a Picasso. I should make it an NFT. Yes, nobody. I can certainly do that. Nobody asked the best question today and that is if I can draw a smiley face. This is how I'm smiling today because I'm in a lot of profit and I don't believe the market is over. All right, guys. On what time frame do you use these stages? Cats asked. What a great question. Okay, so when I am Let's go back to the Bitcoin chart here, right over here. Okay, so when I'm in this chart here, they're asking me uh what time frame I'm using when I'm doing the stages. Guys, stages happen on every single time frame. It is so valuable to understand. understand this stuff. Watch this video a few times. Do some tutorials, some quizzes on yourself because once you understand it, you can use this as a scalper on the hourly time frame or the 15-minute time frame. You can use it on the daily time frame if you're a mid-time frame trader. I use it on the daily time frame all the time. You can use it on the weekly and the monthly. Me personally, I very rarely deviate from daily, weekly, or monthly. That is my jam. That's where I'm at. If I see a setup though on the daily, let's say I'm looking at this daily chart and I see a setup here. Look at all my lines. I see a setup here. Okay, let's just pretend um uh uh I'm I'm looking at this, right? We got a confirmed bottom signal here. Let's just pretend this one is confirmed here. What I'm going to do is I'm not automatically going to go and buy it. I'm going to then say, "Okay, I want to buy right now, but I want a better entry. I'm going to go down to the 15-minute chart, and I'm going to not buy this, right? Why would I buy that? That's a stage four. That's a clear stage three to stage four. Stage four, the rule is you never buy a stage four. Never, ever, ever. I don't care what happens. You wait. Okay. Once this has a setup, another bottom signal or something, then I'm going to enter. And then I'm going to switch right back to my daily time frame and never look at that 15-minute on that position ever again. And that is called precision entries. Okay. Um, any more question, guys? I got to go here. Oh, nobody. You're funny. Okay. Um, all right guys, thank you for joining. I really appreciate it. I'll catch you on the next stream. Stay bullish and uh and yeah, I'll see you on Twitter. Cheers.