Transcription
And hello everyone and welcome to Vision Crypto on this Saturday, October 25, 2025. And this morning, we have a map that is quite green. That's pleasing. We're going to see what happened yesterday. We had a small push from BTC and Ethereum. That's why, by the way, we have some altcoins, the majority of altcoins in fact, that are in the green. There's also some good news. And we're going to look at it right away. Look at the figures for the manufacturing PMI, the services PMI, which are largely above expectations. So for the manufacturing PMI, 52.2 instead of 51.9, quite a bit above. And for the services PMI, it's largely above. 55.2 instead of the expected 53.5, and that is extremely, extremely positive. Why? Well, it means the economy is doing well. It means that industry and the services economy are doing well in the United States. That is, of course, extremely, extremely positive. Well, the CPIs are slightly negative. We still see that inflation is lower than expected. 3% for 3.1%. It's still less catastrophic than it could have been. So overall, it's very, very positive. And so, another positive thing is that, given these figures, well, Powell will normally have no reason not to lower rates. He can lower them by 0.25, continuing to lower rates very slowly, not necessarily rushing. And that's very, very good news because if the economy is doing well, it means he can go gradually, and when he lowers rates, investors will see it as a classic, normal rate cut, not a cut out of fear of recession, not a cut saying, "Yes, I have to lower rates because things are not going well. The country is in difficulty, the manufacturing PMIs are not good, the services PMIs are not good. So I absolutely must lower rates to stimulate the economy." No, here he can really lower rates calmly. It's possible he might even lower them by 0.5. Anyway, we'll see next week. Next week, we have a big, big week. We saw it yesterday in the daily update. So that's extremely positive. We had good figures. Now, let's move on to our friend BTC. Yesterday, I told you I would take a short. Well, look, I took a short, and you see, it was very quickly profitable. We were very quickly rejected here from the short RLZ. And so, I stopped at 110,000. So it was completely profitable. Alright, I'm removing it. So why didn't I go for lower take profit? Simply because, well, we see that BTC currently has some strength. It's holding. Yes, I think we could go lower. Plus, we keep not revisiting liquidity pockets. You see, we haven't revisited below here. Not here either. Not here either. Not here either. All of these are large liquidity pockets. We know that. We can see right away here that there is liquidity to be recovered. Moreover, yesterday, we further strengthened the liquidity. We could make a big wick to recover all of that. We'll see. It's possible it will be next week, depending on the news we get. We'll have a big wick to recover this liquidity, and then we'll move on. Anyway, I don't know. But in any case, it's important to keep in mind that we have a lot of liquidity to recover to the south. We are also creating a lot of liquidity to the north. We know we have plenty above the old ATH, but we see that in the short term, we are also creating a lot of liquidity to the north. So, as you know, we're a bit stuck. We're waiting for news on potential agreements between China and the United States, and also on Powell next week, who will potentially lower rates. All of this is currently putting a lot of pressure on the market, and we see a certain indecision. We are rather in a phase of stagnation. So again, I'm not going to tell you we're going to explode upwards, or that we're going to go south. Both possibilities are very strong. So we could very well go and get all the liquidity to the south. There's a strong interest, but we could also very well go and get all the liquidity to the north because there's also a very strong interest there. We could also very well go up here and then go for the liquidity to the south. So we really have too many scenarios. Just keep in mind that we have this liquidity to the south. So a big dump can happen at any moment, and you need to keep that in mind. What's interesting right now, look, is the BTC dominance. So I'm going to switch to the 4-hour chart so you can see clearly. So you see this large purple band here, this is the resistance that served as support before. First, it served as resistance here. You see, we were rejected several times here, even here again. Then, once we passed it, we used it as support. Here, here, you can see it, here, here. Again, even here, we were rejected a little, and then we went below it. And currently, what are we using it as? As resistance again. And we see that we are grinding within it. And you see when we climb like this, we generally fall very sharply. So this can also be very positive for our altcoins and for Ethereum, of course, because if BTC falls sharply, exactly like it did here, there could be a big drop, and that would potentially boost Ethereum and, of course, our altcoins. In any case, that's what we're waiting for, not to go back above it. That's what we're waiting for, a big drop in dominance to finally have a spillover of liquidity to other cryptocurrencies. But why am I showing you this? Because BTC dominance is behaving exactly like tokens. That is, when we are at a resistance, we are generally rejected. Here, moreover, you see, we are grinding, grinding, grinding upwards. We are strongly compressing the percentage of BTC dominance. So at one point or another, it's the same, there will be a resolution, and therefore we risk breaking. And generally, when we grind like this, we break very sharply downwards. So again, we'll see. But I can well imagine something like this continuing perhaps here, and then suddenly a big drop downwards. We'll see if I'm right or wrong in the upcoming daily updates. Alright, let's continue with liquidations. We had very few liquidations yesterday. Yet we pushed quite a bit, but we had very few liquidations in the last 24 hours. Look, 224 million in liquidations, and it's rather balanced. 103 million long positions liquidated versus 120 million short positions liquidated. In terms of market sentiment, we are still in fear, even if it has risen a little. We are at 34 compared to 32 yesterday, but we are still in fear. We know very well that there is liquidity to be recovered to the south. So, everyone is scared that we have to recover it, which is totally normal. Regarding ETFs, we had inflows again for BTC, even if they are rather weak, but it's still 90 million in inflows for the BTC ETF. For Ethereum, however, we have outflows again, 93.6 million in outflows. So, on the other hand, we see that there is interest, even if it is minimal for BTC currently, and very, very little for Ethereum. On the contrary, for Ethereum, we still have outflows. Alright, let's get to the news. So inflation in the United States reached 3%, a figure below expectations. So yes, it's a little more than it was because it was 2.9 before, but we expected 3.1. So it remains rather positive news. We continue with JP Morgan, I'll put it in French too, which will allow its institutional clients to use BTC and Ethereum as collateral. That, again, is extremely positive. Why? Well, it means that JP Morgan's institutional clients will not be forced to sell their BTC and Ethereum to be able to borrow money. So, they can very well say, "Well, I have a Bitcoin worth $100,000, I'll put it as collateral. You lend me, for example, I don't know, 75% of that amount, so $75,000, and I'll leave my BTC as collateral." So that's something JP Morgan will allow. It simply reduces selling pressure. The fact that institutions holding BTC and Ethereum are not forced to sell them to borrow and can use them directly as collateral is very bullish and reduces selling pressure. Alright, we have this news. Now, I don't know if it's true or not again, but I'm giving it to you. The Chinese have demanded Trump's complete capitulation. They want the removal of all tariffs and US export control measures ever imposed in exchange for the lifting of the embargo on metals. I don't know if this is reality or not, but clearly, President Xi is demanding a lot from Donald Trump. I don't think it will ever pass. Anyway, I don't know if it's true or not. The only thing I know is that, as I said, if there's bad news, good news, bad news, good news, it changes extremely quickly. We never know what to expect. So, apart from waiting for a real resolution, whether positive or negative, for the moment, we cannot take the news seriously. And moreover, I have the impression that even the markets are no longer reacting to the news. Why? Because it changes every quarter in the morning. We continue with the first whales, that is to say, the whales of Satoshi's era. The very first ones who mined Bitcoin, for example, who have a lot of Bitcoin, are trading self-custody for ETFs. Is convenience taking precedence over the self-custody philosophy of the first Bitcoiners? Yes, currently, there is a transfer happening. It's the whales who are transferring their BTC to have ETFs, for example, ETFs from BlackRock, ETFs from 21Shares. And why are they doing this? Because it's much more comfortable than having millions, even billions for some, on keys or on their own wallets. It's much more comfortable to give responsibility, for example, to an entity like BlackRock, where there are certain guarantees. That is, tomorrow you transfer all responsibilities to them. If they lose your millions, they have to reimburse you, that's how it is. Whereas here, holding your own millions, if the slightest problem occurs or if there's a hack or anything, you are entirely responsible and you have only yourself to blame. So, that's something I can understand. Personally, if I had millions, I think I would be completely tempted to give the responsibility to an entity to have a certain guarantee. And that's something I can totally understand. Yes, it goes against the sovereignty we want with cryptocurrencies, but when you start having millions, there's no point in being sovereign if you're psychologically disturbed because you're afraid 24/7 for your cryptocurrencies. So that's something I understand, and we clearly see this shift happening. Moreover, let's be honest, 21Shares fees are relatively low, so paying small fees for peace of mind, well, I clearly find that totally normal. That's all for today's update, team. As usual, we are really waiting, next week will be very, very important. So, I invite you to click the subscribe button so you don't miss any future daily updates. Tomorrow, we'll also see why I'm still bullish. I feel like I say it every Sunday, but I get a lot of messages saying, "But why are you still bullish?" I don't understand. There are a lot of YouTubers who are bearish who think we're starting the bear market and blah blah blah. Anyway, that's not my case at all. I am extremely, extremely bullish for November and December, and potentially January. Tomorrow, we'll look at the signs again. So don't hesitate to click the subscribe button so you don't miss anything. On that, I wish you an excellent weekend, an excellent Saturday, and I'll see you tomorrow in the daily update, and above all, above all, stay curious. Ciao!