Transcription
These are players Nathan and I. You will not see us draft them this year. We, for one reason or another, don't like these players for fantasy football. We're going to tell you why, why you shouldn't draft them either.
Obviously, we're not going to end up hitting on all of these, but I do think that there are pretty good cases to be made for a guy like Christian Watson, who right now is going in the sixth round of early fantasy football drafts. He's being ranked around the sixth round of fantasy football drafts. And I just want to just this is all I need to say about Christian Watson for you to kind of understand where I'm coming from. I am very hesitant to invest in a player who on a season-wide basis, the highest finish he's ever had was in 2022 and it was the wide receiver 40. He has never been higher than wide receiver 40 over the course of an entire season.
And you might say, "Well, okay, Avery, that's because Christian Watson has been hurt during those years." That's pretty much my point. Like Christian Watson has, first of all, he just got paid a huge contract, so he's in the news, very popular right now. People are looking at the team investment for Christian Watson, the departure of Romeo Dubs and Dantavian Wixs for Christian Watson. Plus, they're looking at the end of last year for Christian Watson. When you're looking at his game log last year, he had three games above 20 points in the last eight weeks here. But he also had games of 9, five, and three. Just because his spike weeks were bigger doesn't mean that he's going to maintain that over an entire course of an entire season. But those that's what people are looking at and why Christian Watson is being pushed up boards right now.
And again, I personally do not like investing in players that have a history of not producing at a high level in fantasy football and they're 27 years old in an offense that when you're looking at the last couple of years, who has come out of that offense and been a a relevant pass-catching wide receiver? Who who has come out and been fantasy relevant in that offense? You're looking at the last couple of years, you've had Romeo Dobs there for three or four years, right? And he's been fairly consistent, but at what nine, ten points a game. Dantavon Wixs hasn't really done anything at about five points per game. Jaden Reed had a couple flashes, right? But since then, Jaden Reed and Christian Watson when they've been on the field together have kind of cannibalized themselves.
And another thing that I want to point out here that's probably my biggest point for this particular player is that with Christian Watson, when he was going off at the end of the year, Christian Watson's not a guy that's getting a ton of like a ton of targets. He's getting his points through big plays, right? Even the last from weeks 11 on last last year, you only had two games above six targets, right? That was week 12 and 13. Four, five, six, six in the last four games that he played. And again, all of last year, he never had more than five catches. But where he where he tends to do well and has his spike weeks are when he scores touchdowns, right? Okay. Okay, so you see two touchdowns in week 11, a touchdown in week 13, two touchdowns in week 14, a touchdown in week 17. In those weeks, 22, 24, 18, and 20. In the other weeks, 12, 7, 6, 9, 5, 3. So very boomer bust, very touchdown dependent, very big play dependent.
And if you'll remember, this is my argument here. Last year, the guy who was big play dependent in that offense for the first half of the year was Tucker Craft. Tucker Craft was not in the offense past week nine because he got hurt, torn ACL, out for the season. But you'll remember in his game log for the first couple weeks, he had a 24, a 16, and a 33-point game in the first nine weeks, as well as a 10, 12, 16, and 10-point game with two games that kind of were his floor games at five points. But Tucker Craft was that big play guy, right? You're looking at his game log from last year. His big spike weeks were the ones where he had touchdowns, right? He also had games where he was getting two to three targets, four targets, five targets. So, he's a boomer big play guy that gets his production from the the bigger chunk plays that you saw at the at the beginning of last year.
So, when that role was no longer filled by Tucker Craft, yes, Christian Watson was productive in the stint, he was able to stay healthy last year. But two things, number one, I do not trust Christian Watson to stay healthy. I don't trust a guy who has never performed as a top 35 wide receiver in fantasy football out of four years to finally do it in year five in an offense that very rarely produces fantasy relevant wide receivers. And Tucker Craft is going to be back and I think Tucker Craft is personally the best weapon in that that offense. I think people are looking into the Dobs and Wixs are gone argument too much. I don't necessarily think it matters too much. You have Matthew Golden there who did nothing last year. What I think is going to happen in this offense is I think it's going to be Jaden Reed, Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, Tucker Craft, and they're all four going to be like, "Oh, we're going to average nine to 11 points a game, and that'll be it." And with Christian Watson being he's being drafted right now, higher than that. He's being drafted like he's going to produce at a higher level than that. I'm not going to trust Christian Watson. He's never shown me that I can trust him in fantasy football. I think when Tucker Craft is back, this is still an offense that it's going to want to run the ball a lot. And I think they're going to want to get Craft the ball a lot as well. I'm not going to bet on Christian Watson's breakout. You're at a sixth round price in fantasy football. When you're looking at some of the other guys going around him and you can get guys like Marvin Harrison Jr., who I think has objectively a higher ceiling. Brian Thomas Jr.'s going around him. Romo Dun, Carell Tate, all of these guys have higher ceilings and the range of outcomes in my opinion stretches much higher than Christian Watson's. Um, you know, not to mention you can go down and get some more proven guys who have actually produced at the level we want. Christian Watson to produce that like Jordan Madison like a round and a half later like Corin Sutton way down there. Michael Pitman is like three rounds later. So I'm out on Christian Watson this year. You're welcome to draft him, but I personally don't see it. I don't trust Christian Watson and I don't trust the Green Bay Packers wide receiver room to produce fantasy football.
>> Okay. So I've got a genuine question that I want to ask you guys and you guys can answer this yourselves while I'm telling you kind of the production profile of this player. But basically, before I give you a name, I'm just going to tell you that this is a running back and his production over the last four years has been running back 18 in total PPR points, running back 19, running back 27, and running back 22. Before I give you his name, where do you think that running back with that production profile over the first four years of his career, do you think should be reasonably drafted? Where do you think he should be going in most drafts in fantasy this season just based off that production profile?
Okay, total points don't always tell the whole story. So, if I gave you points per game, it is a little bit better. 13.5 points per game, 13.3, 16.5, and 11.3 this past season. Now, where do you think he should be drafted? I I'm telling you right now, if if you haven't caught on to who this player is already, I bet you a million bucks you're saying that this dude is a fifth or sixth round running back in fantasy this year is what you would estimate. Probably a guy who's like, you know, going Swift or Bucky prices. Now, this is Kenneth Walker, and he's a mid-second round running back and will be consistently taken in the second round of your redraft leagues this season. And I understand people just love to bring out their pitchforks, and they get all up in arms with Kenneth Walker and they're like, "Okay, don't you just twist all of don't you twist all the production that he's had the first four years of his career? You can't not mention Zack Charbanet. You can't not mention the fact that he was in a committee." And well, I mean, I I guess I just did kind of, but it's not even the fact that he was in in a committee the first four years of his career and now he's heading into a I would say better situation. We would agree a better situation going into Kansas City and is expected to be the bell cow running back hopefully if he stays healthy.
Um, even with all of that, even with this new situation with Mahomes coming off an ACL where he's not going to have the rushing upside that he had last season and Walker is going to be expected to take on a heck of a workload, how can we rationalize taking Kenneth Walker in the second round and advocate for you guys to take him in the mid-second round as well when he's going around proven running backs who you are hoping Kenneth Walker can match what they've already done. You're looking at the guys ranked in the same tier according to expert consensus right now. Chase Brown, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Drake London is also there. Um, Omar and Hampton, who technically is projection as well, but I I think Avery and I would both argue absolutely has a better situation um in in a Mike McDaniel offense in in LA. Like this is a mid-second round running back who is when when you really are looking at your top two round picks in your redraft leagues. You've got to hit on those guys. Like those those have to essentially be a given. And Avery and I know better than anyone, especially me, that if you miss on your first round pick or your second round pick in your league, you are way less likely to be a playoff team. I am not willing to take an upside shot in the mid-second round as one of my core running backs whose production ceiling and what you're hoping he offers for you is not near what those first round guys that are going in the first round are going to offer. And they really are again just the ceiling of what Saquon and Hansen and Chase Brown are going to give you and have been giving you. I I I cannot I I cannot wrap my head around why he's going this high. We were all ready to go and say, "Okay, Kenneth Walker, we are so ready to say that it is okay to take him in the middle of the third round and that's where we're going to rank him." And then I think our my eyes just popped out of my head when I saw where people are taking him and where people are willing to take him. When in Kenneth Walker's career with a bell cow workload, he's never had a bell cow workload, ever demonstrated that he can stay consistently healthy and just be a consistent producer ever. The only reason Walker is going this high is because of his playoff run last season, winning Super Bowl MVP when he got healthy at the right time. And oh, by the way, all four years of his career, he has yet to play an entire season. It it absolutely blows my mind. Yeah, he was available for pretty much all of 2025, but you're looking at his workload and his efficiency throughout that time with like half the workload that he's going to be getting in Kansas City or estimated to be getting. And you've got games of like less than two yards per carry. You don't have consistent receiving work. You don't have a lot of efficiency in the receiving game as well. Neither do you have like touchdown production there. He had the least amount of touchdowns from Walker in his best season in 2025 alongside Charbanet than we've ever seen in the past. So again, I I think we're going to air more on the side of like safe, guaranteed, highly productive running backs and wide receivers in the same price range as Walker when we're pretty confident that he's not going to produce much higher than them if he even gets to what you're projecting he's going to do.
>> If you want to see our full fantasy football rankings and where we have these guys ranked compared to everybody else in the industry, you can check it out at the link below. You're going to get free start, sit, and trade questions on our live streams for Nathan and I as well. You're going to get our 2026 draft tool, which will be unveiled very soon. So, if you want to check that out, it's $34 for the entire year, and you get everything. $34. So, it's the best deal in fantasy football. Check it out below.
Look, I think generally a good practice in fantasy football is to not give yourself a disadvantage, start your season at a disadvantage by drafting players that are injured. I think that's a great rule that you can't really afford to mess up because if you screw up the first six weeks of your fantasy football season, you are well behind in trying to make the playoffs. I think a lot of times something that I'm guilty of is trying to play too much for the end of the year when I'm barely even getting in the playoffs. And getting me a buy is actually statistically going to help me more than like stashing a a guy like Malik Neighbors on my bench. And Malik Neighbors, here's the problem. Malik Neighbors is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. And we saw that his rookie season, he's one of the best rookie seasons of all time. Malik Dames is hurt. He's injured. He hurt his knee. He It has not recovered well. He had cleanup surgery, which everybody some people would want to say it's a bad thing. Some people want to say it's a good thing. I don't think it's an anything thing outside of the fact that the recovery is clearly taking longer than what everybody thought it was going to. You saw Jim Harbaugh out with a quote a couple weeks ago, if we can have this on the on the screen, basically that he's going through the slog of it and it's not your typical knee injury. There's no reason for him to say that unless there have been circumstances behind the scenes where it's taken Malik Neighbors longer to recover from that knee injury. So, it's nothing against Malik Neighbors the talent. Great wide receiver, dynamite player, and the price is reduced, right? But I think this is where we fall into the trap. The price is reduced, you know, depending on where you're looking. It's like, oh, well, Malink Neighbors actually going in the third round now. So, if I can get Malik Neighbors in the third, he's going to win me my league at late in the season. But in reality, why start your fantasy football season at a disadvantage by drafting Malik Dabers if you end up losing your first four games even by, you know, just luck or lack thereof? You're going to have to move him anyways and you would have wished you would have won two games there. You're spending a third round pick and we're talking about like the proportion of how much of your fantasy production comes from each of your, you know, top four round picks. A third round pick is very valuable for you trying to secure your fantasy football championship when you can draft somebody in that range. Javonte Williams, even if Malik Neighbors might go on the pup list at the beginning of the season. Now, obviously, there's a lot of time between now and then, and if he ends up being perfectly healthy, I think we'll probably move him back up our rankings a little bit. I think there's a chance he starts on the pup list.
>> This is so this this resembles a Brandon Aiyuk situation to me so much where it's like they're kind of hush-hush about when he's going to be back >> and then you get closer to the season and they're like, uh, yeah, he's not going to start the season. He won't be ready. And then you you look at him potentially getting opportunity in the middle of the season at the very earliest like >> Yeah. I think they had the contract stuff in there with the same time, right? That was the same year. Yeah. So that's that is a little bit different like I was just kind of ahead case as we know now as he drives 150 mi down the road 150 m per hour. But >> with Neighbors I'm just looking at guys here like I would I rather have Josh Allen as my quarterback or draft Malik Neighbors in third. Well, I'll just take Josh Allen as my quarterback, right? I mean Chris is going there. Rasheed Rice is right above him. You got T. Higgins in that range. CeeDee Lamb, Zay Flowers, Travis Etienne. all guys that are going to score you a lot of points in your first couple weeks where especially if Neighbors doesn't play in the first couple weeks, he's going to be a particularly awful pick this year in fantasy football. Somebody's going to have to pick him. And of course, there is a price where it makes sense to pick him. But I would say this, like I I would bet that anybody who's going to take Malik Neighbors at his current price is going to really struggle to start the year because they're missing that production. If they can somehow swindle their way into winning like the first three or four games without Malik Neighbors, they then you have to give like tip your hat to them. That's a that's a very very good fantasy football achievement. Most of the time what happens is you draft injured stars like this, you end up dropping quite a few games to begin the season and then they have to sell the star. If you want Malik Neighbors and if you think he's going to be a league winner at the end of the season, then just buy him during the season after you start your season 3 and 1, 4-1, 5-0, you know what I'm saying? You don't have to take him right off the rip. In fact, I again, I would bet that a lot of the guys that draft Link Neighbors will struggle at the beginning of the year just because they're drafting a guy that's already hurt. And I just think it's a bad idea. You get one shot at this. A lot of you guys play in leagues. You can't trade. You're playing in your home leagues. You're playing with your boss or your work friends or your family and they don't know anything about trading and they're not going to know anything about Malik Neighbors. And on one hand, Malik Neighbors could get to a price in your draft where it makes a lot of sense to take him. It's obviously going to be price and draft spot dependent. But generally like why draft injured players when you can draft healthy ones. Why? I think you've got plenty of productive guys in this range you can draft instead of League Neighbors. I understand Malik Neighbors has more ceiling hypothetically, but that doesn't necessarily matter if you're not on the field. So, Malik Neighbors, as much as we love him as a talent, probably not going to be drafting a whole lot of them this year.
>> One of the biggest recent names that people will point to and saying that like, oh, a guy can recover from an ACL and be totally fine coming back is a guy like Breece Hall, who in 2023 uh came off that ACL injury and averaged 17.1 points per game, which was sixth among running backs, and finished as like the RB2 in total points that year. Um, and since then he's had like 15.1 points per game, a little dip in 2024, down to 13 points per game in 2025. And a situation that has just seemed to get worse and worse, even though he exceeded 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his career last year. The touchdowns went way down. The receiving usage has just continued to decline year-over-year to a point where his floor is just getting lower and lower and lower. And I think one of the main arguments that people will make for Breece Hall this year and kind of rationalizing his price in the uh like late second early third round is going to be well Nathan this situation in New York is way better than it was last year in that Aaron Rodgers is going to open up the field a bit more because he's a better passer than Zach Wilson was. They just drafted Cooper and CeeDee Wilson's going to be back healthy and I would say all of that is very fair. I I think that's very very true. I do think the situation there is going to be more positive for all of the assets there to be not not all of them really Wilson and Breece to be like decently productive. I do question what the upside is going to be. Um when you take Breece Hall at early third round prices because really once you get to the third round again like the first couple of rounds you're establishing your two core guys. You're either going double wide receiver, double running back or you're like switching it up between the two. you're getting an elite running back and elite wide receiver in the first or second round there. And then I mean let's let's say that you go double wide receiver in rounds one and two and your running back one off the board going again at the beginning of the third round being Breece Hall. Like do you really trust Breece Hall as your running back one specifically is if he's the first one that you select at that position in your draft. I just don't know what the upside is there genuinely like even in a situation that's let's let's say ideal for Breece Hall which you could argue was 2023 when he had his best season ever when Rodgers went down with the injury and uh Garrett Wilson was you know doing Garrett Wilson things but Breece Hall was kind of the the motor of that offense and the only thing that was going to be the most consistent there was Zach Wilson at quarterback. Like I I just don't know if you're going to see a situation any better than that. And even Breece Hall at his best was averaging like 17 points per game at that point in time. Do we really think that Breece Hall is going to get back up to 76 receptions? Do we think he's going to exceed 10 plus touchdowns, which he's never done in his career before? Do we think that he can exceed 1,000 rushing yards again when he's only done that once in his entire career? I just don't I I I I don't know if I would be betting on it when I can bet on the guarantees in that range specifically at wide receiver. I think I like the wide receivers at the two-three turn quite a bit more than I like the Breece Hall selection there. George Pickens is going right by Breece Hall. Nico Collins and his upside week to week is phenomenal. Um, you've got Rasheed Rice and Chris Ave who are going right after Breece Hall, at least according to expert consensus. Um, Rice has his legal questions of course, but when he's on the field, he's productive. And Chris Ave and one of the more underrated offenses I would wager in the NFL this year, um, for fantasy purposes is again a guy like Chris Ave. So, Breece Hall, again, you're probably looking at a guy that has like mid running back one upside at the absolute highest. He's never demonstrated anything higher than that. And the the third round is where I'm a little more comfortable with you taking like some some high upside um shots instead of, you know, a guy that's going to have, you know, a decent volume floor. He's he's going to have a pretty pretty nice base of production because he's one of the better non-elite productive running backs in the league. If you if you were in any other situation, you know, switch him and Walker, put put Breece Hall on the Chiefs and dude would be going in the first round, right? because everyone knows knows he's a great running back, but you're kind of just stuck in this cycle of like, man, we what what really are we gonna get from Breece and Garrett Wilson, too? Like, we're penalizing Garrett Wilson, uh, taking him in the mid fourth. Why aren't we taking Breece relatively close close to where Garrett Wilson is going? Um, when both of their production outlooks are relatively similar this year.
>> DeVonta Smith is a guy that we've historically been very high on. You remember last year I actually drafted him at the four-five turn in the Flock League. I thought he was a great value. He's a great wide receiver, guys. Like DeVonta Smith is a straight up amazing wide receiver. I think the price is a little bit high for my liking. If I'm looking at the Flock expert consensus rankings right now, he's ranked as the wide receiver 13. We have him more like the wide receiver 19. And it's not like DeVonta Smith doesn't have the upside to be a high-end wide receiver 2, right? We've seen this early in his career. He was the wide receiver 13 in 2022, right? Average 14.9 points per game. That's on a per game basis, though. And you're looking at his total finishes. He did have he was a wide receiver one that year, but every other year he's been the wide receiver 30, 19, 27, and 20. And I think people are overestimating a couple of things here. I think people are overestimating how good Jalen Hurts is going to be this year. And I think people are overestimating, or maybe underestimating, I should say, how good A.J. Brown could be this year. People want to say, well, okay, A.J. Brown only works the middle of the field. Jalen Hurts is bad at throwing in the middle of the field. A.J. Brown, he's a rookie. He's not doing anything this year. But I think that's oversimplification at its finest. I think that DeVonta Smith at 27 and a half is going to have a great year. I do also think it's possible that we're overplaying like what DeVonta Smith can actually do from a points standpoint this year in fantasy football. You know, he's going around guys like Chris Ave. Fact of the matter is I I would much rather have a Chris Ave in an offense where he was all he also added a rookie wide receiver to that offense. But in an offense that you know, you compare these two guys, they're gonna throw the ball a lot more with the Saints. Carr has been a lot better for Lave than Hurts has been for DeVonta Smith on the Saints. So, I'd rather invest in that offense. But even other guys going around him, we just talked about you know Malik Neighbors. Uh he's ranked back to back with him right now. But even go down to like T. Higgins, Zay Flowers, and Michael Wilson. Like these guys have also put together like very similar uh you know, points per game seasons. Last year Zay Flowers is at 14.3 points per game, right? Which is a was a jump ahead of where DeVonta Smith was. and Michael Wilson like I I think that's where I would be ranking him is like taking a shot on Wilson. Uh you're also up here with guys like Rasheed Rice and Nico Collins ranked like right above DeVonta Smith and I just think it's a no-brainer to take those guys over Smitty this year. Not that Smitty's not going to have a good season. Again, I just don't necessarily think that Smitty's going to be like a borderline wide receiver one this year. I think he's going to be more like a wide receiver two or three. Jalen Hurts in terms of passing the ball has been worse the last couple of years than he was and I don't expect that to get much better this year. It is a new scheme and so that kind of adds a wrinkle into this where it's like we don't really know how much usage DeVonta Smith is going to be. But they also have Dallas Goedert in that offense now which he'll have a minimal rookie year but Dallas Goedert won't. Dallas Goedert will be very involved in that offense. Again, there are just plenty of dudes in that offense that are going to get targets. And I think it's I think it's a little bit um I think we're jumping the gun a little bit by saying that DeVonta Smith is going to just automatically assume this alpha wide receiver one role where he scores as a wide receiver one this season. Like that seems a little bit bold to me. Uh, and so as much as I like DeVonta Smith, uh, his he averaged 11.8 points per game last year, even if he jumps up to like 14 points a game, you're talking about him being where T. Higgins was, where Zay Flowers was, where Garrett Wilson was last year when he was healthy. Uh, and that's where A.J. Brown was last year as well. And so, I mean, there are plenty of guys, I think, in that range that have just a high upside. If you d if your draft team is like the wide receiver, like 16 through 20, perfect. I will take DeVonta Smith there. And we'll have to see what actual fantasy drafts bring. I just think on the early returns, people are elevating DeVonta Smith because of the recency of the A.J. Brown news with him leaving. And I don't necessarily think A.J. Brown leaving means that DeVonta Smith scores 16 points a game. I think, you know, 13, 14 point per game DeVonta Smith season would be spectacular this year. Uh, and at that rate, you know, 13, 14 points per game would be more in line with what he's done historically the rest of his career. Um, I think A.J. Brown makes more of an impact there than people think. And for that reason, I won't be drafting DeVonta Smith at this price. I would draft him a little bit later. Like right now he's going beginning of the third on Underdog. It's a little bit too high for me into the third, early fourth. I feel much more comfortable drafting him there.
>> R.J. Harvey is going to be our next guy here. I I'm just a bit worried about what R.J. Harvey is really going to offer there from a volume perspective offensively for the Broncos when historically we've seen Sean Payton really like to integrate multiple running backs in the same offensive system. I think Alvin Kamara at this point has shown to be pretty much the biggest outlier in a Sean Payton offense of anybody. Um, and even while Kamara was there at his best in a Sean Payton offense, you had Mark Ingram who was getting a lot of the carries there. The reason Kamara was so productive is because his receiving work was so phenomenal with hyper-efficient rushing work which was limited. and Harvey. I think the biggest knock against Harvey is his efficiency on the ground does not mark or does not match his effectiveness in the air as a receiver. Uh with 146 attempts last year, a lot of those attempts coming after the by-week in week 12. Um when J.K. Dobbins was down with the injury, you saw Harvey's snap share go up quite a bit from like 20s and 30s to anywhere from like 50 to mid-60s. Um, and he had like 13, 17, 19, seven, 14, and 15 carries. His efficiency was all over the place, and it was a lot of not great. 2.6, 4.4, 3.4, 7.1 when he had seven carries against Jacksonville with that one big breakaway run. Three yards per carry, 1.8 yards per carry. This guy is just he he's not their go-to on the ground. There's a reason that um Denver swooped in at the last second to resign Dobbins and basically steal him from Jacksonville because they don't feel super confident in R.J. Harvey being their guy and it's not like they feel super confident in J.K. Dobbins being their guy either. Even though Dobbins was very productive last year at the beginning of the season, Dobbins has shown throughout his whole career that he can't stay healthy. I do think they're going to manage his workload a bit this season to try and keep him healthy and good to go the entire season. But that's going to result in really a mix of production from J.K. Dobbins and R.J. Harvey. And then factor in Jonah Coleman, who again, if Dobbins goes down, I don't think it's going to be the Harvey show like it was at the end of last season. They drafted Jonah Coleman in the fourth round for a reason of this year's rookie draft and that was to have a better answer at the running back position if and when Dobbins does go down with injury because you can pretty much just bake it into his value and bake it into his price um in your fantasy football draft. So Harvey um has has a lot of really flashy plays, a lot of really flashy um you know, awesome high upside um opportunities when it comes to like big explosive runs. If he can bounce it outside, he can always, you know, turn on the burners and just take one to the house. That's always going to be in play and a possibility for Harvey. But for a guy who's in a running back, like a like a true running back committee, that's going to be an even split at least if they don't integrate a third running back as well there. Um, you're also talking about a guy who's coming off of a shoulder repair that was pretty under the radar this offseason. That's like a six-month recovery timetable, four to six months. They said that it's likely that he's ready to come back from this injury by training camp and he should be full go by week one, which is great news. Again, we're not going to count that too much against him because he did have it pretty soon after he suffered that injury in the AFC Championship game. But at the end of the day, a guy coming off into injury in a situation that has a very capped ceiling anyways, there are just other wide receivers and I think running backs in that price range that we would much prefer. Um, looking at uh Rico Dowdle for example, who had I mean way bigger boom weeks in his uh stint with Carolina last year and now he's kind of looking at the same sort of situation in Pittsburgh this season. I'd rather take another shot on Rico Dowdle this year. Um I would rather take a shot on Tutu Atwell if he's available. Uh J.K. Dobbins and Harvey we pretty much view as back-to-back guys that should be going back-to-back and Dobbins is the one that's getting the bulk of the groundwork and he's going to be getting the red zone carries. So you're looking at the touchdown upside being really in favor of a Dobbins. Rhamondre Stevenson kind of being overlooked for the second season now. Um when in reality like that scheme isn't going to change and you're probably going to look at a decent Rhamondre and Henderson split so long as Rhamondre is still present in that offense. Um, so it's just, you know, take some other shots on different running backs in Harvey's range as what I would recommend because you're just not going to get a lot of groundwork.
All right, the last guy's Xavier Worthy. I don't know if this will be a hot take or not, but he averaged 7.8 points per game last year after averaging 11 his rookie year. Obviously, he played last year and he was hurt. He had a torn labrum. Right now, he's going anywhere at like the 8-9 turn in most fantasy football drafts. 23 years old, he's still very young. He was a burner. He ran super fast at the combine. But when I'm looking at the guys ranked around him right now, like I mean it just makes no sense for me to take Xavier Worthy over Casey Capiello right now. I just like everybody better in this range. With Worthy, I think with Kelce and Rice in that offense, plus this the the role that Xavier Worthy plays in that offense, I do not think there's enough volume there nor consistency for him to produce on a week-to-week basis to where he's not just boom bust. Not to mention his boom weeks last year was 17 points. Outside of that, his next highest game was 11.4 points. And that's from week four to 16 when he was playing obviously. And so again, I know he was injured, but it's just not a guy I think he's going to be somebody who's a consistent fantasy producer. Casey Casspion, it's a rookie. It's an unknown. He has a much higher ceiling and potentially a much higher floor than than Xavier Worthy in an offense where he could be the wide receiver one. I'd rather have that. Jacoby Myers and the Jacksonville Jaguars offense averaged 11 points per game last year. I'd rather have that. Jauan Jennings going right above him. Goes to Tennessee. Came off a season where he's averaging 13.6 points per game. Uh, and he's going to an offense with Brian Daboll where there's some familiarity there and Cam Ward should be able to pepper him with targets and he should be a PPR cheat. I like him instead. Kenneth Gainwell, uh, even behind Buck Irving is going in this range. I tend to like these handcuffed running backs. Obviously, he's not going to score 13 points a game again this year, but I tend to like guys like that a lot more. Uh, so I'm I'm just going to say this as well, like Travis Kelce is going like around behind him. Travis Kelce will outscore Xavier Worthy this year in non-tight end premium leagues. And so I'm not quite sure why Worthy is being selected over Travis Kelce outside of positional need when in reality like you can if you can flex a tight end. If I'm choosing between the two, I'd rather flex Kelce.
>> I would much rather flex Kelce. Like the guy who's going to outscore on his own team is ranked around lower, which makes almost no sense here. So there's just for me with Xavier Worthy, it's two things. Number one, I just don't think he's the consistent fantasy uh producer with the role he has in that offense. And I just see a ton of guys around him I'd rather have. I I do not think this is a guy I'll be in on at all in fantasy football this year. But again, there's nothing a lot of a lot of these guys that we're talking about like where it's like, you know, we're not drafting this year. It's because there are players around them that we like better. That's that's the the crux of a lot of this. Of course, there are situational or situations that we don't like a ton like Christian Watson, but you know, we don't hate the players here. We just don't really like where they're being drafted. Every player has a price. If these guys were to drop in value or drop in price, yeah, sure, we'll select them in fantasy football. But at the same time, uh I I I just don't think you'll see us drafting a lot of these guys this year. So, let us know who you are fading in fantasy football this year in the comments. Do us a big favor. Drop a like on this video, hit the like button, and then hit subscribe as well if you enjoyed the content. Helps us grow the channel. We're trying to hit 100K subscribers on this channel, and every one of you guys that does that helps, so we really appreciate that. Thanks for watching, guys. We'll have more content for you soon.