สงครามโลกครั้งที่ 3 จุดจบของโลกเก่า และการรีเซ็ตใหญ่ในรอบ 120 ปี (ทวีสุข ธรรมศักดิ์)

The World War III is forming, it has already spread across the globe at this moment. >> No one benefits from war. >> Yes, war is trade and trade is war. It will be similar to the events about 120 years ago. The winner is the one who writes a new chapter of history afterwards. Then we will see that around China, it will be a region with all internal problems, the Ring of Fire in a war version. >> Importantly, it's not just fighting on the battlefield; there are ways to make people within the country fight each other. You, Gita, will see that when there was a meeting in China, it was a significant symbolic launch. That was a picture that said they were ready for war, both economically and violently. >> The boiling point in 2026, what are you concerned about, Professor? >> Hold on, Japan will open with Korea. >> Which point looks the most severe? The fuse has already been lit. It's France, which might enter a state of bankruptcy and could drag Germany down with it. The second factor in this Gita is scary: losing control of the bond market. >> The wound is Commercial Real Estate. Professor, if we compare the level of severity, is it equal to the level of the subprime crisis? >> If we combine these two, Commercial Real Estate and Private Credit, with a value of approximately 1.1 trillion, it would be about 5 times larger than the subprime crisis. >> We heard you mention the bond market, Professor. Has that situation occurred yet? >> It has clearly happened now, and this is a very dangerous signal that shows the Fed has lost control of interest rates. >> But this year it has increased by over 60 percent. Is it just the beginning? >> 5,000-1,000 will definitely happen. We don't know how much a baht of gold will be, but I'll focus on 85,000 baht per baht first. >> Today, I must say this: the trade war we've heard about since 2019 >> is over. >> 2569-2570 will be our most difficult period. >> Let's put it this way: if our financial institution system remains strong during these two years, we won't be too bad off. >> If you say this is the most severe global crisis in over 100 years, then it's also a great opportunity in 100 years. >> It's also a 100-year cycle. We don't just look at survival. You, Gita, must look at how we will win this game. >> Professor Thavisuk, hello. >> Hello. >> Thank you very much for honoring Bus Tomorrow and The Next again. It's been almost a year since we last met. Back then, we discussed the economic outlook and the global system in 2025. Today, we are closing out 2025. I would like to ask the Professor to analyze and interpret the global situation in 2026. But before we get to 2026, 2025 is a year where we've faced shocks in almost every aspect, both globally and within Thailand. We have the risk of war occurring in our border areas. We see wars in many battlefields around the world, and they haven't completely ended, both in the Middle East and in the Russia-Ukraine region. There are events in the Pacific and many other conflict points. We have trade wars that the US has initiated against the whole world, especially China. We have technology wars where they compete to be leaders in technology, chips, and rare earth minerals. We have severe natural disasters globally, including earthquakes and floods in Thailand, and the world is experiencing much abnormality. The stock market, the capital market, is volatile. Gold has reached all-time highs and then fallen into a bear market in just a few months. It's been an extremely turbulent year, Professor. Has it unfolded as expected, or are there things that have exceeded your analysis? >> Everything has just begun. We have just entered an era of asset volatility. However, in terms of the real sector, we have been facing it since COVID, with issues like financial liquidity. This will be a major problem for the current system. But regarding financial assets and uncertainty, in reality, all these issues are interconnected. >> Uncertainty and they are linked together. >> Uh-huh. >> What is the root cause of this volatility, Professor? >> It will be similar to the events about 100-120 years ago, when the world was redesigning a new system. This redesign of a new system could be called system architecture. This entire process includes technology, economic crises, and wars, in order to enter a new world order. Because the economic system designed in 1900, up to 1945, led us to the New World Order where the United States has been, let's say, the power that dictated the world for 80 years. So, all of us are accustomed to the United States being the world leader. But now, it's the point where there will be new challenges to the world system to design a system towards a new world order again, in a post-technology world, which we are entering the quantum era. A new world order in about 120 years. >> 120 years. This means the announcement of the Industrial Revolution has been since 2015, before COVID. After that, we fully entered the digital era. And after that, we will enter an era of volatility in many aspects. Therefore, when entering a new world order, there must be a struggle from the old powers and the formation of a single power. So, what we are facing now will lead to a considerable amount of uncertainty, especially regarding the economy. Currently, everyone might think that the stock market is still at an all-time high, so how can an economic crisis occur? If we look, Gita, you will see that the US stock market has indeed reached all-time highs, both Nasdaq and S&P 500. But I will use the large companies in the S&P 500 as an example. We have the so-called "Magnificent Seven" stocks, but in reality, there are about 15 companies related to chips and other things within the S&P 500 that are leading the rise. But for the other approximately 485 companies, they have not grown, and some, especially in the Real Sector, have even hit all-time lows. For example, Home Depot, and companies like that. Therefore, at this moment, we can say that the real sector in the world is like a zombie corporation, like companies that don't grow but don't die. But the money in the world is flowing to only a few stocks, so their market capitalization is exceptionally large. >> Seeing the all-time high market, we cannot conclude that this is >> the brightness of the entire market atmosphere and that everything is going well, but it is merely the tip of the iceberg. >> You could say that, and it's not entirely correct. The correct part is that we cannot look at that alone. But if it's not entirely correct, it's because we are in an era of major industrial transformation. So, the question of whether companies that are not growing might not be in the global industry trend going forward. They will become zombie companies, and new companies will emerge to replace them. You, Gita, will see companies like OpenAI, right? OpenAI hasn't even IPO'd yet, but its market capitalization has risen to over 500 billion, which is enormous. These are companies in the trend of new technology. Currently, there are hundreds of such startups globally, both in China and in the US, that are about to emerge, and we might not even have heard their names yet. Therefore, it doesn't mean the economy is bad overall, but there will be changes in industry cycles entering an era of industrial transformation, which will lead to this situation. >> And the money pouring into technology companies and this group, will they be >> the new rising stars of the world, and will they help save the global economy, Professor? >> It depends. Currently, the companies that are receiving investment are still the foundational elements of AI systems. However, companies that utilize these AI foundations for business have not yet emerged or are not widespread, or are still in their infancy. Therefore, if you ask if they will be the leaders to drive the new world, the technology is moving forward. You, Gita, have heard that the world says AI is a bubble, right? But I see AI stocks as just being overpriced because people are expecting something. It's not a bubble. However, for the economy to move forward, it will be in another area: the financial system, the banking system, the money printing system of the world. This is currently stumbling. It's stumbling in many areas. Therefore, if an AI company's bubble bursts, I think at most, stock prices will fall. If stock prices fall, do we call it a bubble bursting? We can call it a correction, right? But for a bubble to truly burst, I don't think there will be a bubble that bursts. But there will be companies that will fail and disappear, and there will be consequences that will affect financial institutions that are about to emerge. Uh-huh. >> So, the main point you are focusing on is the liquidity of financial institutions, the banking system, the bank system, more so? >> Yes, because it will be linked to the need to print money, and what the world is very concerned about is the increasing debt, right? Along with rising interest rates. There are quite a lot of details here, as different parts of the world will face similar but not identical problems in detail. >> So, if we break it down point by point, the most concerning pillar of the economy is the liquidity of the banking system or >> the central banks of the world, which you call the money printers. Where are the stumbling blocks that you are worried about, and which points look the most severe? >> I would point to Europe as having the most severe situation. Currently, we might see the second-largest economy in Europe, France, possibly entering a state of bankruptcy and potentially dragging Germany down with it. As you, Gita, can see, Germany has not had economic growth since the Russia-Ukraine war, right? The executives of German industries discussed with the Prime Minister whether to choose Ukraine or German industries. It turned out they chose Ukraine. Therefore, all German industries have high costs. Currently, gas and energy costs in Europe have risen by 40% since the war, which is a very high cost. Food prices and other things have also increased. But the thing that is the "fuse that has already been lit" is France. I believe that soon, France, which has had systemic problems since 1945, when the Prime Minister at the time amended the law. At that time, there was a competition between democracy and communism. In France itself, there were quite a lot of groups that favored communism and authoritarianism. So, the leader at that time used a method of combining communist theory and democratic capitalism. This led to the formation of labor unions and other things. In France, labor unions, Gita, are structured in such a way that once you join a company, you have no right to fire employees. For example, a restaurant. There might be an employee who >> insults customers with a bad attitude, spoils things, but the owner calculates that if they fire the person, they will be sued for high damages. This causes problems for the French system. And the pension system, which is a major issue right now. When the system was designed, 4 French people supported 1 elderly person through tax collection. >> Yes. >> But now, 1.7 French people support 1 elderly person, and this trend is increasing. That is why they are postponing the retirement age from 62 to 64, which is a big issue because the French people say they have lived their whole lives, and their work is only 35 hours per week, which is already the lowest in the world. Therefore, France itself is becoming a major problem that cannot be solved internally. I think within 1, 2, or 3 years, France might have to seek assistance from the IMF. And I think France's solution would be for the IMF to do what it did in Thailand, which is to change all of France's laws, or else you will have no money, and a crisis will occur, leading to protests, civil war, or what happened in France in 2023. The garbage filling the streets of France, the labor unions striking, which is a major problem that cannot be easily solved in Europe, both in France, Germany, and even the UK. This is what we see in Europe that is concerning. And another thing I am very worried about, Gita, is the United States. There are things hidden within the system. I must say the infrastructure of the system has cracks, and there are still concrete slabs covering them. >> Yes. >> If we look at it this way, we will see clearly. There is one issue that I don't see much news about, Gita, which is Commercial Real Estate, or CRE. Currently, CRE is more of a highlight than the Tech Bubble that people are looking at. CRE is about to face a situation that will cause regional banks in the United States to be at risk of bankruptcy, similar to Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic. What is happening here is linked to Private Credit. What we are looking at now is >> We've heard warnings about private credit this year, Professor. We heard the CEO of JP Morgan Chase warn about it at the beginning of the year, and we saw Goldman Sachs say they are watching this as a major catalyst for next year. But no one has delved into the extent of the damage or the level of risk. Can you explain to us what the problem with private credit is, how severe it will be, and whether it could explode into a subprime-like crisis like in 2008? >> Private credit is linked to CRE, or Commercial Real Estate. These two years will be a measure. I say these two years because 5 years ago, when the pandemic occurred, loans were issued to develop, let's say, various types of retail spaces. In the United States, they build small retail centers, with restaurants, convenience stores, and so on. Loans were issued for this, and new office buildings were constructed. But the problem is that after COVID, the work-from-home trend has caused a problem of increasing vacant spaces. This has also led to poor sales of Commercial Real Estate, such as department stores. The problem here, Gita, is that when the loans were issued last time, the contracts were for 5 years. >> Yes. >> And the interest rate for these 5-year contracts was 2.5-3%. But after this, it will be a maturity war, meaning the contracts will expire and need to be renewed in 2026 and 2027. The total value that needs to be refinanced is 1.88 trillion dollars. The first issue is that this refinancing will have to be done at interest rates from 2.5-3% to 6-9%. >> Okay. First, the second issue is the problem of vacant spaces and office buildings, whether in New York, Florida, or elsewhere. Prices have fallen by about 40-60%. Commercial real estate is different from residential property. Residential property, if you don't live in it, you can renovate it. But office buildings have expenses, taxes, maintenance costs, and upkeep. This will burn cash rapidly. If the number of tenants, the occupancy rate, does not reach a certain point, the value of the property will fall. This raises the question of whether banks will refinance at 100% or at 60-40% of the asset value. Therefore, if banks refinance at 40-60%, the owners or operators who borrowed from the banks will have to find additional cash, which they cannot find. This is more complicated, Gita. >> Yes. >> The thing is, after the subprime crisis occurred, major banks in America, the 24 banks that dealt with coffee, faced problems. They stopped lending to real estate. So, they went to regional banks. Various regional banks, let's call them local banks, small banks. But when we borrow to do this, Gita, we need to put in a portion as equity or shares. Now, the majority of the equity portion will be loans, not actual shares like, "Hey, I have 40 baht, I'll invest it as shares and borrow another 60 baht from the bank." That's not how it works. The structure is that they will borrow. >> And then they borrow from private credit. They borrow from private credit. >> With less stringent lending standards than normal loans. >> Not stringent, yes. So, they go to private credit, which we will discuss later. Now, Gita, imagine this: if they borrow 100%, and 40% is private credit to cover equity, and the remaining 60% is borrowed from the bank. >> Yes. >> If the price falls by 40%, it means the equity money is burned away before your eyes. The book value. The question is, what will happen to the private credit that was borrowed? As for the bank loan, the question is, the 60% that they lent at 100% >> It might now be only 40-60%. This means there will be a loss of money. What will happen to the local banking system? Now, going back to the local banking system, the CRE that has problems has a value of approximately 1.88 trillion dollars. How many banks are there? 1,480 banks are facing this problem. >> Yes. >> And the banks at risk are about 580 banks. You, Gita, might wake up one morning and report that today, 50 local American banks have gone bankrupt simultaneously, like First Republic or Silicon Valley Bank, and there were only 2 days to resolve the problem. But this will happen. >> And what is even more hidden than that, Gita? All banks, when they receive deposits, for example, if you, Gita, deposit money in a bank, if they don't lend it out, the bank will buy US bonds to keep. Now, as interest rates rise, the US bonds they hold become a loss. >> Yes. >> That is one reason why the Fed has to lower interest rates. This interest rate cut by the Fed is the most dangerous. Therefore, banks have amended laws. Bill Gross once said that if you keep interest rates at 0% for a long time, when interest rates rise, it will explode like a nova. So, they pulled the pin by amending the law. >> Yes. >> That the bonds they hold, even if they are negative, will not be marked to market. They will not use mark-to-market, but rather the exposure price. >> Yes. >> If people don't rush to withdraw, there will be no problem. But if people rush to withdraw like First Republic or Silicon Valley Bank, then it's at risk of bankruptcy within just one day. Therefore, there are currently 1,480 banks in America facing these two problems, and the financial value is quite high, which will also be linked to private credit. >> Even during the First Republic and Silicon Valley Bank periods, the world was very alarmed, Professor. All these over a thousand banks with problems, and over 500 of them are still linked to private credit. Now, let's move on to private credit, Professor. How concerning is this area that you are worried about? As I mentioned, JP Morgan is also keeping a close eye on it. >> Private credit is like shadow banking. It's like you, Gita, buying bonds, buying funds. They will issue private credit funds. Sometimes there are news, Gita, like "BlackRock is going to go bankrupt from private credit." Don't believe this news. Because private credit funds are just one fund among thousands of funds in BlackRock. Private credit is only one in a thousand. So, it's not something that will cause BlackRock to go bankrupt. But the ones who have problems are that Blackstone borrowed from this private credit, and Blackstone will not be able to repay it. Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, O1, those involved in private equity, companies that are not yet listed on the stock exchange and are preparing to go public. >> There was a case, for example, with Toys "R" Us. Blackstone, KKR, they took over because Toys "R" Us was going bankrupt. It turned out there was a debt of about a billion dollars. After they took over, they injected capital and restructured. It turned out the debt increased to 4 billion dollars. Suddenly, the debt disappeared from the system, causing Toys "R" Us to go bankrupt again. But there was a situation where money disappeared from the system. In Thailand, there are many listed companies on the stock exchange that do similar things. Therefore, private credit funds are becoming funds with the risk that investors will lose money, but they cannot withdraw it immediately. Now, what are the consequences? Those who invest in private credit are 401(k) funds. >> Yes. >> Pension funds, right? And insurance companies. JP Morgan conducted a survey of over 480 insurance companies, and only 20 of them did not invest in private credit. So, this money will also be lost. But, viewers, don't panic yet. Because insurance companies have 100 million dollars, they might invest only 3% or 5% in private credit, meaning not a large amount. So, it will be a supply chain where a portion of people's money will disappear from the private credit system. Is this something serious? I think it's serious, but not catastrophic. It won't be as impactful as CRE, which directly affects banks. >> So, the first wound, the Commercial Real Estate wound, Professor. If we compare the level of severity, is it equal to the subprime crisis, or is it worse or lighter? >> If we combine these two, Commercial Real Estate and Private Credit, with a value of approximately 1.1 trillion, it would be about 5 times larger than the subprime crisis. But the difference with the subprime crisis is that it had issues with CDOs and derivatives, which were not legally supported at that time for insurance. So, it became a transaction. But this time, it's about direct lending to financial institutions, and it's not highly leveraged. But the problem is here, Gita. >> The deposit insurance fund, or the FDIC in America, insures deposits for people in America. But this fund only has 0.5% of the current risk value. >> Yes. >> So, if we think about how they will fix this system, if they solve this problem, then the Fed might print money and inject it into this fund to support it, or let everything collapse, and then JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, or Bank of America will take over the assets. The picture will be like UBS taking over Credit Suisse, taking over assets. >> But in terms of the Fed's tools, Professor, they still have interest rates that they can lower, which is a frequently used trump card, or even QE, which is similar to what you mentioned earlier, printing money to inject liquidity. >> Yes. >> Can the Fed help, Professor? >> The Fed has been doing this for 3 months. The Fed has been injecting money into the system, and the total amount is higher than in 2019. In 2019, when interest rates rose, there was a liquidity shortage, right? So, the Fed injected money. Then they solved the liquidity problem by releasing the virus. And the world injected a large amount of money again during the pandemic. But the real problem is from liquidity. Currently, the Fed is injecting liquidity into banks. Therefore, the interbank interest rate, the Fed Funds Rate, has risen significantly, even higher than the 10-year bond yield, several times. This is because there is no liquidity in the system, and the Fed is injecting liquidity. And this year might be a challenging year for the US Treasury. In 2025 >> It's called a rollover war. The US debt is about 9 trillion dollars, and it needs to be rolled over this year. >> Yes. >> As a result, it has led to events since September. Every Wednesday and Thursday, when US bonds are auctioned, the Treasury sells bonds, and the Treasury buys its own bonds. During this period, there has been significant buying. For example, in some weeks, it reached 12 billion dollars per week, disturbing the system. This reflects whether the world is rejecting US bonds. But there was a period where this whole year was a rollover year, a big year. But if this problem continues in January, it will become a reality that the world no longer wants US bonds. Therefore, what the Fed should not do this month is cut interest rates. The Fed should only cut interest rates twice. >> Cut interest rates twice for technical reasons. But the third time, it should not be cut. The reason is that it has caused two major wounds to be revealed to the world. First, the real economy is not moving. If we remove the seven stocks, we will see that stocks have not grown at all. The other 400-plus stocks, which represent the real economy, show that the economy is starting to stagnate. And the second liquidity injection, Gita, is scary: the Fed has lost control of the bond market. We see 1-year, 2-year, and 5-year bonds falling as the Fed indicated, but 10-year and 30-year bonds have reached all-time highs, which is the same behavior as Japan. But Japan is raising interest rates. >> Yes. >> This is where three central banks in the world cannot control the bond market: the Fed, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan. Japan's situation is that the bond market is leading, causing the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates accordingly. >> The loss of control over interest rates, Professor, what does that mean? What does the market see, and what risks does it lead to, even though they are lowering interest rates and bond yields are rising? >> It means that the Fed can no longer set interest rate policy because the market is reflecting that if you lower it, they won't buy, and they will even sell. Because lowering interest rates this time reduces the losses from the previous rate hikes. Therefore, we see that the central banks of China and even Japan are selling quite a lot. >> We heard you mention the "bond superpower" that >> will cause major problems in the bond market if >> the market doesn't believe or if there's a loss of faith in issuing bonds. Has that situation occurred yet, Professor? >> Yes, it has clearly happened now. For the UK, it's been happening for half a year. For the Fed, it's clearly visible this month that the Fed has lost control of interest rates. Especially, as everyone knows, the 10-year bond. While the Fed is lowering interest rates, the 10-year bond yield is increasing. >> Yes. >> From 4% to 4.15-4.16%, which is contrary to all theories. >> This is a very dangerous signal that indicates that the interest rates in the market will lead the Fed to follow Japan. This is a very dangerous signal. Because if the Fed has to reverse and raise interest rates again, it will cause banks to incur further losses from holding US bonds, linking to real estate and mortgage-backed securities, which are bonds for real estate lending. Currently, the yield is around 6%. Therefore, all of this is interconnected, especially the US real estate market, with an estimated damage value of 1.88 trillion. >> And the bond market signals that the market is leading, and the superpower is showing its symptoms and can no longer control it. How will this lead to a crisis, Professor? >> If interest rates increase, it will cause everyone holding US bonds with a maturity of over 1 year worldwide to incur losses. For example, in our country, we hold 300 billion dollars in US bonds. >> I asked if that's the price it came in at, but what's the value today? Is it 300 billion? >> Yes. >> It might be only 220 billion. It might have disappeared due to mark-to-market pricing. Therefore, when interest rates rise, global assets become a time bomb. The price of bonds will adjust downwards, causing holders of bonds with maturities over 1 year to incur losses. The longer the maturity, 10, 20, 30 years, the greater the loss. Therefore, what the Fed cannot control is the 30-year bond. This means everyone sees that America might have problems with interest payments. Because this year is what's called the rollover year. All the debt from the subprime era >> Yes. >> at 0.25% interest, and then it came out to 9 trillion dollars at 0.25% interest, based on that. But today, I'm estimating based on today's rate of 3.5%, but it's actually around 4% on average for the whole year. The cost has increased, not by 4%, >> Yes. >> but by 4 times. >> By 4 times. This is the risk in the banking system, which includes central banks and mutual funds. They will all incur losses if interest rates rise again. They are already incurring losses. >> So, the breaking point is both the bond market and interest rates that will lead to an economic crisis. Now, that's what's happening in the money market and affecting the capital market. How will it reach the real economy, Professor? >> The real economy will mean everyone will face significantly high interest rates. And at the same time, money is not circulating in the economy. Therefore, that's why the Federal Reserve has to inject liquidity, even though they haven't said they are doing QE, but they are injecting it every night, every day. Because we are in the night, it's like this. So, it's a problem that the Fed cannot control liquidity, and has to inject money. And the more they inject, the more the currency depreciates. And America's public debt has already exceeded the ceiling. This is a major problem for America's debt burden with new interest rates. This year, we must say, based on all new interest rates. >> Yes. Liquidity shock occurred. >> A crisis occurred in the bond market, capital market. >> And the money market. America's debt pile is also being closely watched. This year, it's 37 trillion, solely the public debt. >> The issue of debt resolution is being discussed a lot, Professor. America cannot continue like this. They must have a debt resolution formula. Some people talk about revaluing gold. Some formulas suggest they have ideas to collect crypto, perhaps using Bitcoin to reset the system. >> To cause a debt write-off is possible. Or even >> the worst case, defaulting on the debt. As a superpower, Professor, will America find a way out of its debt cycle? >> Which point should I address first? Let's start with the point that there is no way out of the debt cycle, and the world cannot get out of the debt cycle either. It will have to create new debt and roll it over continuously, unless there is a default and a reset of the system. This might be possible in France. Currently, there might have to be a default or something. But in America, a default would be a major problem. It would be worse than the bond market acting as a superpower. Therefore, there are some theories in America. Have you, Gita, heard of Executive Order 6102? >> It has been used in the past. >> Yes. In the past, there was an event where President Roosevelt declared that if Americans held gold, it would be considered unpatriotic. >> And they would be imprisoned for 10 years. Everyone had to sell it to America at approximately $20.67 per ounce. At that time, people had only one month to sell it. >> Yes. >> And then, after everyone sold it to the Fed, 8 months later, the price of gold increased from about $20.67 to $35. >> Yes. >> That was a devaluation. Now, with the same theory, America's major weapon is its gold reserves of 8,500 tons, right? >> Currently, it's rising. I think it will reach 5,000 soon. If it reaches 5,000, it means the value of gold will be the collateral for America's debt at 5%. Now, there are dark side ideas, like those of the doomsayers, who say >> Yes. >> Let's take Jim Rickards first. He says that if the price of gold that can collateralize America's debt is about $10,000 per ounce. >> Yes. >> This would be equivalent to 10% of the value, like when we place collateral for futures. If anyone trades futures or options, they will see that they usually put about 10-5% collateral. Therefore, when the price of gold rises to $10,000, it will be equivalent to 10% collateral. But there is another theory that says, "Well, why not do what the Fed did?" The price of gold that can collateralize debt is about 40%. That would be the best collateral. So, the price of gold would have to rise to $40,000. 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It's possible for it to become a currency, but it needs to have a Market Cap that is about 20 times larger than this. I'm not saying Bitcoin will increase 20 times. >> Yes. >> But I am saying that if it is to replace that, it needs to have both 1 and 2. >> Okay. And another thing is that it needs to be equal to the US debt of 40 trillion. >> Uh-huh. >> Right now, it's only 2 trillion. >> The law hasn't even supported the size of the market cap, and it's still large. >> Especially when compared to, uh, US debt, it's still 10-20 times apart. >> Yes, this is one point. Regarding the other question, stablecoins, uh, I don't know how they calculate it, but I look at Tether. Tether is about selling or exchanging dollars for it, right? Or selling other cryptocurrencies and exchanging them for Tether, which is like exchanging US dollars for this. >> Meaning Tether has to buy. >> Buy it. Therefore, the Tether company that manages Tether will have cash coming in. >> Yes. >> 1 dollar per 1 Tether, so they will use the dollars they receive to buy US bonds. >> Uh-huh. >> Now, if stablecoins are to be printed, the question and the problem lie with the Ministry of Finance. The Ministry of Finance wants to sell debt, Khun Guitar. So, where will Stablecoins get the money to buy US debt? >> Because they will have to buy US bonds anyway. >> Yes, and where will they get the money to buy bonds? >> They won't use stablecoins to buy them directly because they want to win. But it's more than just changing the method, and there are many possibilities. But there must be the condition I mentioned, which is legal support. As long as the law doesn't support it, I don't think it can replace it. But I want to remind everyone that during crises, laws can be enacted overnight. And those who manage the system will amend the laws during that crisis to benefit them. Therefore, anything can happen. I'm not saying it's impossible. >> It has happened many times in history, right? The Nixon Shock happened. If they want to enact laws to seize assets or grant asset powers, they can do anything. >> They can do anything, right? They can do everything. Like, uh, the Fed has done it. So it's all for the benefit of those behind the scenes. >> But if we step back and look at what ordinary people are worried about, ultimately, won't it explode into a US debt crisis, Professor? Because there seem to be many ways out, and there might be ways we haven't even thought of yet, and superpowers might be able to use them immediately. >> Solutions must arise from crises. So that everyone accepts and has a consensus that, for example, a large bank failure occurs domino-style. Then laws must be amended at the time of the crisis. Therefore, there are solutions. For every problem, Khun Guitar, I always say that war ends before it begins. The conclusion of the war is already there from the start. >> But it's just that during the process, what will the problem be like, and who will bear the damage and hardship? >> Yes, yes. So there must be someone. Ultimately, the people of the world will pay the price for everything. >> And the picture you see, Professor, will it happen in 2026, or is it still a long-term problem that we see and need to prepare for this year? >> With all the problems, Khun Guitar, they started in 2020. >> Yes. >> When we had a liquidity shortage in the system, until liquidity was printed. But the problem is that printing liquidity is distorting the system. Therefore, today, what is in this loop cycle is that we are paying the price for the system we fixed. That is, from 2020 to 2023, we solved the problem by creating a bigger problem. We created a bigger problem. Therefore, before 2023, everyone in America, Europe, everywhere, including Thailand, lent money massively. >> At low interest rates. Now that interest rates are higher, this is a big time bomb for businesses. That's why liquidity is now drying up. And the Fed has to keep printing money all the time. >> So, will we see interest rate hikes in 2026, Professor? >> The best scenario is to stop cutting interest rates because they will try to prolong it as long as possible. But if the majority of regional banks explode during 2026, then it will be a problem. They might have to hike interest rates suddenly because liquidity in the banks disappears. And what I fear most is that it might go up to around 8-9%. >> 8-9% is going back to the period when we faced inflation, Professor? >> Yes, because as I said, this time the Fed should not cut interest rates. So when the Fed decides to cut, we will see a lot of division and indecision. >> Once they cut, it reveals two issues: they can't control bond yields, and they admit that the US economy is not doing well right now. >> And the real economic picture is being watched for two things, Professor. Inflation is still high, but >> The Fed says that if it passes in the future, it might gradually decrease, allowing them to cut interest rates. And another point is that many people in America are unemployed. The unemployment rate is high. Regarding these two points, hyperinflation and high unemployment, what problems do you see in America? >> In America right now, for the general public, there are quite a lot of problems. It's a paycheck-to-paycheck situation for about 60-70% of the country. They still have to live month-to-month. And unemployment is not caused by AI. It's caused by companies cutting costs. >> Yes. >> And companies can't survive. Because, Khun Guitar, you see them threatening each other, saying AI will replace humans. >> I still see 80% of companies using Excel. And I'm confused about when they will switch to AI. So, the layoffs are not related to AI. >> Not related. Not related. >> But liquidity is not good. >> Liquidity is not good, and they can't sell products, so they have to lay off people. And they will likely lay off more people. This will lead to a situation called stagflation. Why are prices high? It's because of the tariffs that Trump imposed. I think it's the most poorly disguised lie in the world. They imposed trade tariffs. >> Yes. >> And said they would deal with competitors. But by imposing tariffs, who pays the tariffs? It's the American people, right? So, it's like a VAT tax. If our country collects 7%, then whether we have income or not, when we buy something, we have to pay 7% VAT. This is like a trade tariff on everything imported, which is almost everything. Nothing is produced in America. So, they are collecting 20% from Americans on all trade. For example, when I ate at a Thai restaurant last October, they said, "Wow, the costs are so high now that there's almost nothing left. I think we'll have to increase prices." But they just increased prices recently. And they have to increase them again. People will suffer. They say regular customers are starting to complain about why it's so expensive. But they can't not increase prices because the costs are very high. This is what Trump did by collecting tariffs and then deceiving the world by saying, "Hey, I'm dealing with the enemy." But in reality, Americans are paying more, all at once. >> And is there a risk of hyperinflation occurring, Professor? >> I think stagflation will occur first in the next two years. That is, prices are high, but money isn't circulating. This is already happening to some extent. And for the past two years, this has been the definition. And the trade war that haunts the world during 2025, the issue of tariffs has caused chaos since April when Trump announced it continuously until finally, they tried to negotiate with China. It seems like a pause, but will the tariff war continue in 2026? And will it lead to the crisis the world fears, creating a Great Depression like in 1929, Professor? >> The tariff issue is less concerning than liquidity and interest rates. >> We have to say it like this. >> The foundation is crumbling. It depends on which part of the concrete that seals the house will crack first. >> Yes. >> So, when it cracks, the entire concrete will crack together. Because right now, there is no part of the world where the economy is growing, except Vietnam. And Vietnam cannot support the world. This is what we need to see first. And another factor that will drag down global liquidity is Japan. This is what will make global liquidity decrease. >> Japan, after undergoing restructuring with the "three arrows" policy, seems to have gradually increasing inflation, leading to interest rate hikes. And they say their economy is improving because of restructuring, even if their GDP figures are negative. What are Japan's concerning symptoms, Professor? >> Japan's symptoms are related to financial institutions. We need to see this first: the Bank of Japan holds the most US bonds in the world. However, we haven't seen the year-end figures yet. The Bank of Japan has a negative mark-to-market from holding US bonds. >> But it's offset by the Nikkei 225, which is stocks, being controlled by the Bank of Japan. That is, they print money to buy stocks. And the Japanese stock market has reached an all-time high, which should be a good balance. But I haven't calculated whether it's balanced or not. Therefore, the Bank of Japan has two assets in its portfolio. But the problem lies with commercial banks and businesses in Japan. Because when interest rates rise from negative interest rates, Khun Guitar, from negative to 3%, the mark-to-market of Japanese bonds over the past 20 years has been negative. >> Yes. >> But they amended the law regarding mark-to-market prices so that when prices rise, it won't cause banks to collapse. And I don't think Japanese people will panic and withdraw money. >> Yes. So, in Japan right now, there is this crack. But the question is, is it scary when people panic and withdraw money? In Japan, this is not a major problem yet, as the system can still be concealed. But what Japan has created as a problem for the world is that Japanese interest rates and US interest rates are equal. They are exactly the same. Previously, Japanese interest rates were 0%. >> Yes. >> Uh, Khun Guitar, imagine this. >> It's simple: you go to a Japanese bank, borrow money at 0%, and deposit it in America. >> A 10-year bond yields 2% interest. Suddenly, you get a 2% difference without any cost of capital, right? Therefore, in Japan, this leads to what is called yen carry trade. That is, borrowing money at no cost, converting it to dollars, converting it to euros, and then buying bonds or stocks in global stock markets, and so on. And then making profits from foreign exchange and other things. Therefore, this money will disappear because it has a cost, and a high cost at that. So, the money markets and capital markets that relied on yen carry trade, which were worth about 12 trillion dollars. >> Yes. >> It disappears in an instant. >> Uh, not only does it disappear, but people also fear the reversal of positions, called "unwinding carry." They borrowed and invested, and now they might have to sell assets and return the money. Is there a risk? Because we've seen a preview in early August 2024. >> That group, the first group who knew this would happen, sold off first. So, now it's the group that is still stuck and hasn't sold yet. >> Or they are still happy, but they still see that the cost is not too high yet, but it is high enough. But they still believe in capital gains. So, we cannot assess the risk of this panic. Therefore, Japan has only one problem, which is the yen carry trade. It has a large market cap and will affect global liquidity. >> This is another point to watch carefully. Finally, China, Professor? During the crisis since COVID, China's liquidity also helped the world. Today, China might not be as strong as before, but its GDP is still growing at 4-5%. How serious are China's economic problems, Professor? >> China is about to create new problems for the world, Khun Guitar. >> What is it? >> Today, young people are unemployed. What happens is, for example, if you apply for a job, the salary is 25,000, and they say it's okay, 20,000 or 15,000 is fine, as long as you have a job. >> Yes. >> Suddenly, what has never happened in this world is, uh, it has happened, but not in such a large system. That is, wages suddenly decrease. >> Yes. >> Wages suddenly decrease. Therefore, labor costs in China are low. >> Yes. >> And China's products are already cheap. Therefore, there will be an export of cheap products worldwide. >> Yes. >> For example, today, let me give you a simple example. Our toilet paper. The best is 2-ply, but China's is 3-ply. >> Yes. >> If you buy it on Shopee, it's only one baht, and it's better. The question is, in the real economy, what do consumers do? This is just one item, toilet paper. There are also consumer products distributed worldwide, causing factories in each country to experience a sharp decline in sales. This is what will export this major problem. We will see an influx of cheap products. >> The second point, which has been discussed a lot and criticized China a lot, is real estate. The government has said since 2018 to manage it themselves, not to bail them out, because they want businessmen who overextended themselves to learn a lesson. But what the government did was instruct four major Chinese banks, namely ICBC, BOC, ABC, and CCB, to reserve funds to support local banks in case they collapse from shadow banking and to buy assets. Because China is about to enter the digital currency system. Therefore, when entering the digital currency system, local banks might become unnecessary. So, let them collapse, and don't bail out real estate because there is too much real estate in China. Therefore, they are dedicating all their resources to investing in the technology industry, which has higher margins. And they let others fail. But Khun Guitar will see that they are gradually releasing companies one by one. >> Yes. >> Last year, Evergrande, right? And this year, there's another one. >> So, companies are gradually failing, but it's still manageable. But if Evergrande and 4-5 other companies, like China Resources, all fail this year, it will be unbearable. >> But the real estate crisis isn't over yet, is it? >> It will be released gradually, and time will be the solution. But the four banks are ready to handle it, with increased reserves. >> Given that they have many existing problems, including over-export, falling wages, and unresolved real estate issues, it's difficult to expect them to prop up the global economy. >> They probably don't have the capacity to prop it up anymore. Because it's stopped. Khun Guitar, when real estate stops, it doesn't mean construction stops. It means the entire supply chain for construction stops. >> It all stops. >> It all stops. >> Just like in Thailand now, when real estate stops, everything stops. >> That's only the economic pillar, the first shock, the crisis the world must prepare for. There are many weak points. Now, let's move on to the major global trends, the megatrends of our world. We see the world changing in terms of technology. This year, everyone is talking about AI. >> Yes. >> Even Time magazine named the creator of AI systems as Person of the Year and said it was the year AI showed its potential, clearly indicating it's a technology that's coming. In the technology pillar, Professor, there is fierce competition between America and China. Even within America, there are investments of hundreds of billions or trillions. >> Yes. >> Are there hidden risks in the technology sector? Is there a war, a risk of problems or crises in this technological transformation, Professor? >> Today, I must say this: the chip war we've heard about since 2019. >> It's over. >> It's over? >> It's over. >> Between America and China? >> Yes. Because China announced in November that it has its own path. >> Therefore, today, the technology world is going its separate ways. We can no longer compare whether America is better than China or China is better than America. >> Because there will be better and not-so-good aspects simultaneously. >> For example, Khun Guitar, the chipsets with the highest performance must be attributed to America and its supply chain. >> Yes. >> But China says it's not necessary. They only need 7 nanometers and want to make it commercial within the smart city infrastructure. America doesn't need the absolute peak. They gradually distribute companies, and that's why it's concentrated in only 7-8 companies. But China says no, they must build this technology to make it commercial. I will quote Khun Khomsan Saelee. I had the opportunity to talk with Khun Khomsan. He said that the best technology must be attributed to America because they select talented people. But for commercialization, it must be attributed to China. And here, Khun Guitar, there is an interview with Khun Jensen Huang. >> Yes. >> And this is it. Today, we see this first: this year, China and America are going their separate ways. China says they are no longer following America's path and are creating their own. >> Which aligns with what Jensen Huang said: >> We have excluded China, the second-largest market in the world, a market with advanced technology development. This means that we, the American technology sector, have no idea what China is currently doing. While they have been working with NVIDIA for 25 years, working with all AI companies worldwide, and they know where the trend is going. But today, what happens is they have no idea what China is doing. And this is the biggest mistake the US government made in March of this year. Khun Guitar, remember the meeting with Chinese leaders? >> All the tech was discussed in China. Trump also did this on his side. >> Yes. >> But there was a case where Mr. Lin from Huawei went to talk to President Xi Jinping and said that the problem with chipsets has been resolved. This year, it will be alleviated, and in another two years, this problem will no longer exist, and we will be 100% self-sufficient. This is what happened in March. Everyone still couldn't visualize it. If you, Khun Guitar, listened to the news then, you still couldn't imagine it, right? So, let me break it down. Regarding chipsets, it's not yet clear news that we haven't seen Huawei's EUV machines. There are rumors that they can do it or something similar, based on patent applications for 3 nanometers and 2 nanometers. Once it's 2 nanometers, it's almost equivalent to TSMC. But what is clearly visible, Khun Guitar, is that the architecture of the chipsets is different. For example, Huawei has released the Ascend 9000, but excuse me, the Ascend 910A. The latest one released is the Ascend 9104, which is said to be about 70-80% comparable to Nvidia's A1 and H1. This is scary. >> Yes. >> Because they used very little time. And they used 7-nanometer chips to make it. But they say they will release the Ascend 910D chipset, which will have higher performance and might be comparable to the A200. So, this is what Jensen Huang said: we should sell to China. And there was a response from B that they would sell, so add 25% for the government to collect taxes. >> Yes. >> But China retaliated by saying they don't need to buy unless they can disassemble it to see what's inside. This is the AI chip. Ultimately, companies like Baidu and others, many leaders, will use these chips 100%. And they say that now, 99.9999% can be produced in China. Next, Khun Guitar, the chip issue will be long. It's the Huawei Mate 60 mobile phone made with 7-nanometer chips. After that, it's like this. The Huawei Mate 60, which was released and caused a sensation two years ago, Khun Guitar, is a satellite phone. >> Which Europe and America haven't been able to do yet. >> Yes. >> And when they disassembled it, they couldn't do it. Then, the Huawei Mate 80 uses a 5-nanometer chip and has better performance. I'm looking forward to when it will be released. And it's a satellite phone. >> It turns out that what Jensen Huang said is that what China can do is accelerate the creation of its own ecosystem. So, how is it different, Khun Guitar? China makes satellite phones in conjunction with government satellites. So, wherever you are in the world, you can use them. Recently, Kenya signed a contract with the Chinese government to use satellite phones. >> Yes. >> Without needing to set up an antenna. In Nigeria, they are setting up a 5G antenna system, investing about 60 billion dollars, and Kenya doesn't need to invest anything. Just sign a contract with China and buy Mate 60, 70, 80 to use, and they can use phones in areas like Kenya's mountainous regions. And it can be used worldwide, and on airplanes. When we look at businesses in America. >> Yes. >> It's Apple and Android. But it turns out that both Apple and Android don't have satellites. >> Uh, yes, signal. >> Elon Musk has satellites. >> But no mobile phones. >> And can these two companies communicate and work together? This is the first point about technology. And most importantly, starting from the foundation. First, Khun Jensen Huang said that China started from the foundation. That is, what he said in 2015: the world has technology, and Chinese universities must be in the top 10 in every field. And in new fields, we must be in the top 5. Khun Huang said that currently, the 10 best technology universities are in China, 9 of them. And engineers who do technology research, out of 100 people, 50 are Chinese. >> Half of them. >> Uh, not including those who will be produced anew. For example, I was shocked when I went to Huawei Research in 2018-19. They had 25,000 technology researchers, Khun Guitar. Shocked, right? >> 25,000 people. >> 25,000 people. >> Yes. >> Now there are 150,000 people. >> Hundreds of thousands of researchers. >> Hundreds of thousands. And they collaborate on labs. >> Yes. >> For example, now they have made Huawei the one that designs and produces EUV machines. They have High Silicon design them and conduct joint research labs with SMIC. SMIC then produces chipsets. >> Yes. >> So, there will be two companies, uh, the main manufacturers. The main one is SMIC, which we already know. And there are two new companies: Commicon, and another company that recently IPO'd with a massive IPO value, which is MT. This is a competitor to Nvidia. And the IPO subscription was more than 2,000, 2,700% more than the number of people who subscribed. It's like a symbol of Chinese people wanting to subscribe to this chipset company. And there are dozens of other startups like this. This will make the entire supply chain production more stable. >> This is just the chip universe, Professor. You've told us so much. So, the chip war is over between America and China this time, but it seems like a prologue or the beginning of a new war. Because they will go their separate ways, but this separation will lead to clear competition in the future, right? The two poles will no longer depend on each other. >> And it's even more different than that, Khun Guitar. Regarding chips, it's a very significant chapter. The announcement came from Peking University. Normal chipsets from Nvidia or American manufacturers are binary. Now, Peking University has developed another one called analog AI. >> Yes. >> Analog AI is like our analog phones, but the technology wasn't as advanced then. Chip devices, analog AI, will process AI 1,000 times faster than binary AI, like Nvidia's BR. This is in the research phase at Peking University. >> And the chips we see, like 1 nanometer, are electrons. But now, in the lab at Shanghai High, they have a lab that uses light, which is about 1,000 times faster than electrons. And most importantly, it's energy-efficient and generates no heat. They call it a photonic chip. This is in the lab at Shanghai University. Therefore, China is moving towards a quantum system with very high processing power. >> Yes. >> Because analog AI will be used to manage smart cities, manage financial transaction systems, which are numerous for each transaction, and manage autonomous cars. This is another area that will support the AI that is moving separately. America is still in its early stages. It's still a small startup. But this is at the university level, and it's being managed by Huawei. So, we will see Huawei as the infrastructure, >> Yes. >> As the research design, and also as China's factory in terms of tech. >> And will it become fully commercialized, Professor? China's products are questioned for their efficiency, speed, and advancement, but perhaps not the system the whole world is familiar with, like America's. >> Not necessarily, Khun Guitar. They use the approach of making their country a model and selling it. >> And all countries will buy the system. >> Yes. >> For example, now, analog AI will cause what? It will cause them to enter the autonomous car market. >> Yes. >> Faster. Toyota predicts around 2050. >> Yes. >> But it looks like in China, they might reach the 5th generation by 2030-35. Because analog AI will enable autonomous cars to be managed, and they are already moving towards 6G. Therefore, the Chinese automotive industry, which everyone used to look down on, saying it could never be done. >> Yes. >> Khun Guitar, have you seen how many car brands there are globally, excluding China, combined? About how many brands? >> About 30, perhaps? The ones that are well-known. But in China, there are about 90 brands. >> Which, I heard, competed from thousands, right? In the end, there will probably be about 30-40 left, which is equivalent to all the brands worldwide. >> Yes. >> But Khun Guitar will notice one thing: BYD is not like Japanese or American cars. >> Yes. >> They make cars that are cheap. >> So cheap that people will change them without regret. >> Why? Because technology is advancing rapidly. And if people use old cars, in another 3 years, the technology will change, and it will move towards autonomous car systems. Because autonomous cars are the only EVs that can advance, and China is the leader. China will be the exporter of smart cities that are autonomous cars. >> Yes. >> This is what we will see on the chipset structure. This is not my word, but Jensen Huang's. >> Yes. >> He said that in America, the semiconductor industry grows by 20-30% annually, which they are very happy about. But it's different in China; it grows by 2 times annually. It's not necessary for China to be the best today, but it's evident that one day it will be the best. And they won't sell individual pieces like we do, but they sell an ecosystem. Another thing that will cause the most change, Khun Guitar, is that in the next 2 years, all PC computer systems in China will use Harmony OS or another OS. The Chinese Ministry of Defense uses this. But I think it will be Harmony OS. >> Because the government ordered that 100% of hardware and software must be produced domestically. >> Yes. >> So, the problem is, if they have to go to war with America, and they are still using Microsoft's system, and if Microsoft shuts down the system, the entire country will be paralyzed. Therefore, the foundation is to use Huawei's Harmony system. >> This is what they are doing. And Harmony is unique because Android and iOS are smartphone OSs. But Huawei's is a Smart City OS and a platform where we have our mobile phones, PCs, tablets, and Huawei's operating vehicles. >> Everything is connected. You can look at this and then look at your car. It's the same operating system on the autonomous car system, the office system, and the home IoT system, which is becoming IOE. Therefore, what they are breaking down the walls of chipsets is making this commercialization leap forward. And within these 2 years, Microsoft will lose 1.4 billion customers. The misfortune will fall on us. We will have to choose between Apple or Microsoft, which is already a headache. And we will have another device with the Harmony system to communicate with Asia. >> That's it. The world will be clearly divided into two systems. >> Yes, not just the financial system, which is big. Khun Guitar, this is the technology system that is divided into two systems. >> And when we look, Khun Guitar, it's not just China. Russia, Iran, North Korea, parts of India, Africa, and many parts of South America. >> BRICS and its allies. >> Yes. Therefore, what Nvidia predicts is that we are facing a big problem, and the big news that is making headlines today is what? Mr. Trump just built a power plant. No, the president just built a power plant. Why? Because Mr. Jensen Huang said our economy is larger than America's, larger than China's. >> Yes. >> But China has twice as much electricity as we do. And while we are building AI chip manufacturing companies and data centers, all of which use electricity, the electricity in America is not enough. What's more highlighted is that electricity in America is more expensive than in China because the government reduced electricity costs by 50% for semiconductor manufacturing companies. >> This is the Chinese side. >> This is the Chinese side. >> Yes. >> So, the cost of semiconductors, besides receiving research funding and government support, electricity costs are also reduced by 50%. Not only is there plenty, but it's also cheap. Cheap. What's more highlighted is that China is now going on. They have just built 6 nuclear fusion power plants. Fusion is an old system, a nuclear power plant. >> Yes. >> Six power plants are about to be completed, and they are testing the fusion system, which is the system of splitting, like the simulated sun we see. >> But quantum will make the simulated sun system perfect because quantum is fast enough to calculate the splitting of plasma. >> The plasma of nuclear material. This will make the calculation possible and make the power plant safe. This is the first point. We are not talking about renewable energy like solar cells, those are ordinary. Another point is that they discovered thorium. Thorium is American technology, but it is clean and safe, and it doesn't explode. America didn't pursue it further and instead pursued uranium. >> Yes. >> If thorium is used, China's electricity costs will be zero. What the Chinese factories in Xinjiang can do now is produce reactors that can withstand salt corrosion. Thorium is salt. But in America, they haven't been able to do this yet. If this is successful, and it's currently producing electricity at a pilot plant in Xinjiang at about 10 megawatts. This 10 megawatts is about to be expanded. The advantage of thorium is what? All mines in China have thorium ore. It's on the surface, on everything. And there are reserves for another 20,000 years. >> So, there will still be reserves to generate electricity for a vast amount of time. >> Yes. >> What we need to see now is that China's chips might not be as good as America's chips. >> Yes. >> But China's chips are cheaper. >> And they don't sell only individual pieces, right? This is America's limitation: everything is in pieces. But here, it's not like that anymore. >> On the American side, recently, Elon Musk is also going to set up data centers in space, Professor. >> Yes. >> To get good costs and energy efficiency. Could this be a breakthrough for the American side? >> This is something I've said for a long time: one day, we will have data centers in space. >> Yes. >> Because of cooling. Another reason for data centers is that at Fullerton University, they have discovered a new type of memory chip production. By mixing graphene into memory chips, memory chips will become 50% more energy-efficient. >> Yes. >> And they are faster, about 100 to 10,000 times faster than Micron's NAND memory chips. And they don't require as much electricity, and there's no heat. This is what came out of Fullerton University. Therefore, memory chips will be another technology. While Nvidia's binary system consumes a lot of power. >> Yes. >> But with analog and photonic systems, it reduces power consumption. Meanwhile, China's electricity is abundant. This is what we clearly see: the future of America is not creating an ecosystem. They are doing things individually. But this has a roadmap for the country's ecosystem to move towards what is called a smart city. And it's already evident, especially in the automotive industry, right? >> Yes. >> And China's satellites will be more advanced in terms of the Mate phones. They can be used. And China is about to develop what is called low-orbit satellite systems for all communication systems. They will use satellite systems, but it doesn't mean they won't use fiber optics. >> Yes. >> Most recently, Huawei again. I talk about Huawei a lot. >> Yes. >> They produce fiber optics. In all of ASEAN, they use Huawei products. Since they use Huawei products entirely, they have produced new products. Simply put, the most advanced fiber optic in the world is from Facebook. It has a range of 5,000 km before needing a repeater. But Huawei has released a new one that is about 10 times faster than Facebook's, released this year from new lab research. And it can use a repeater signal every 10,000 km. >> Yes. >> Therefore, China's support for quantum computing will be quite high. We are now at a point where digital is moving towards quantum. In 2017, quantum cables were laid from Beijing to Shanghai. And China has conducted tests in some areas. Meanwhile, on the American side, Google is experimenting with D-Wave, which supports IBM. It's still quite slow. >> While Microsoft has none yet, but wants to control the entire technical ecosystem. In quantum technology, the West is slower. They have been experimenting since 2018. And Huawei has just announced that they will have PC computers for direct use with quantum systems. So, we are clearly entering the Quantum Age. Therefore, today, we can say that the world has traveled to 2

The paths have clearly diverged, and China is building an ecosystem, while America is building high technology, which doesn't match at all.

And the result of them being at opposite poles, different, is that they will go their separate ways, and the remaining allies in the world will have to choose, or we will be forced to choose, or there will be conflict so that only one winner remains.

Ultimately, there will be a forced choice because all the conflicts in the world will lead to a new world order, a new governance, as we discussed at the beginning, that we are on a system architecture that will lead to a new world governance system called technocracy. That is, those who are "techno-ed," controlled by this "thing," will have every action controlled, and you will have no right to make mistakes. This is the meaning of the Smart City that is behind the new governance system. Therefore, it is necessary for both camps to compete as fiercely as possible, so that no one can monopolize the supply chain as in the past.

Yes, and this competition will lead to the creation of new innovations, new developments, yes, to the point where technology reaches the highest level for the world to move forward.

Yes, for example, China will build what is called an ecosystem.

But in America, it will go towards AGI, which SoftBank has entered and said that in 10 years it will go towards ASI, which is Artificial Super Intelligence, meaning computers will be smarter than humans. But China will not be like that; it will have a system.

What system? Everything will be fast in order to control, such as traffic control for drones, traffic control for autonomous cars, and so on. The control of billions of CCTV cameras in China, the GPS system that exists, which is connected to the system, requires speed and stability. But this requires the highest high technology. The research side is doing it, and the commercial side is also doing it and creating an ecosystem.

On the American side, AGI will go to ASI, which is Artificial Super Intelligence. Many futurists and technologists have spoken about it, saying it will cause a new transformation, a world where AI will be smarter than humans.

It might be a perfect world, because the economy will run with AI producing and creating everything, and humans will be comfortable doing only what they like.

But before that, it might be an era of recession, job losses, and a violent, brutal transition. How do you see the future of artificial super intelligence?

It's already going there. It's going there with the calculation of technology year after year, that it will reach that point. Therefore, the super artificial super intelligent will be able to enter into management and various other matters. But I haven't seen the West create Smart Cities yet. When Elon Musk first came as an advisor to Trump, in the early period, I actually felt that America should move towards Smart Cities, with Elon Musk changing the structure of, what do you call it, the infrastructure of the government system first. If the infrastructure of the government system changes, it will make others follow suit. And when contacting the government, it turns out Elon Musk left first. And you, Kita, will see that in the last two days, the power outage in San Francisco caused autonomous cars to stop in the middle of the road. And the power outage is a big problem for America, as I said.

But in the world of AI, as America sees it, with super AI smarter than humans, is it good for humans or separate from humans, professor?

The question is, we had electricity for the first time, and people were very excited. Is it good or bad for humans?

It's beneficial in many aspects of life. There are activities in life, production, goods, and development of the country.

The big problem is that we are being propagandized that these AIs are demons. This is a big problem that both Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg see, asking why we have become demons when we are trying to do things that humans don't need to do.

For example, as a housekeeper, in 2026, Kita, we will enter the era of humanoid robots.

It depends on whether Unit and 4-5 other companies in China and Optimus from On-Mar will come out and be amazing. Humanoid robots will enter our daily lives. Another thing is that they will replace human labor. For example, if I have no children and am the last person, I would want someone to take care of me.

So, robots are the answer. They can do housework, take care of me when I can't, and we feel more confident with them than with humans, or something like that.

This is us entering a new era. Therefore, it reflects back on the economic system, Kita, why money flows to the tech industry entirely and is ready to invest with huge amounts of money. We've only seen the first stage. We will see about 2-3,000 more companies doing AI entering the market, and it will be even more amazing. For example, in an interview at the beginning of last year, I said that China has about 10 more companies similar to Epic. Now you see that more than 10 companies have emerged that we can see.

Therefore, there will be about 1,000-2,000 more companies like these around the world for us to be amazed by. Because right now, what AI helps with the most is writing code.

No need to write anymore, just imagine, no need to find technicians to write code anymore, because AI will write it for you.

But if that's on the innovation side, on the development side of the world, it will go much further, and there will be many opportunities for investment in new businesses that are coming in the era of both AI and quantum. But on the other hand, there are real risks, professor. Do you see that before we pass into the era of perfect AI, perfect Smart Cities, and technology that controls and manages the entire system, we will have to go through a period of crisis, a dark period, a period of transition from humans to full technology?

We say that 2025 is the year the world can no longer go back to the way it was. We will enter a completely new technological world. Therefore, when we enter this new technological world, what follows is the old industry. We discussed why the stocks of the "Seven Angels" went up, and the other 480 companies did not, and some even did new things. This means we will have quite a lot of zombie corporations in this world. In the stock market, I said in 2020, 2019.

Half of the stock market will disappear or be companies that cannot generate revenue by 2030, at least half or 70%. Today, in 2025, Kita, how many zombies do you see? I think more than 40% are not growing but not dead.

Does this mean in Thailand or globally?

In Thailand, in Thailand itself.

In the stock market alone, not including companies outside the market. They are all zombies, and they grow only with loans, and they don't grow much. So we can see that when real estate stopped in 2023, Thailand stopped. Before that, in the previous era, until COVID and after COVID, it was driven by real estate, so we grew 3-4%. But now it has come down to this. Therefore, as I said, in the world, no matter if it's Thailand, which is already scary, in Europe, I think about 80% are already zombies.

Those who cannot keep up with old industry technology will be left behind and will perish.

They will be removed from the system entirely. But when people leave the system, it becomes, "Oh, what about the existing debt?"

It becomes non-performing loans, and a financial crisis will occur, which is said to be larger than the Great Depression. But the problem is, people don't know that we are in a crisis. Since 2020, the crisis in this round is the lack of circulation. The lack of circulation of money. Everyone starts to see the lack of circulation from the fact that the global real estate business stopped in 2023, and money from then on did not circulate. And interest rates rose, and it didn't circulate. This is what will cause a rather high Great Depression.

It's like breathing stops.

It stops in the old industry, so money must go to new places.

But for companies or businesses that you, professor, call zombies, and they can continue to operate, there are people there. There are business owners, employees, and a lot of labor. If these businesses fail, it means a large number of people in the system will also fail.

I just did a workshop at Columbia University in October. The biggest problem with transformation is that 70% fail because of people. I've done transformations myself, and I know the big problem is people. So there is a price to pay.

If we go into a little more detail, the big problem is people. Can you explain what that problem is? People don't want to change, people aren't skilled enough to change, or what?

It's all of it combined. And they don't know they need to change. They will change what, they don't know what they need to do, because it's not within their comfort zone. Because what we are talking about, in the future technology of the world, Kita, can you open Nvidia? It's not easy. Can you open Facebook? Can you install the system?

And our country has destroyed education, destroyed students since I was a child, by teachers making children hate mathematics. We never ask if children are not good at learning or if teachers teach poorly.

But children are taught to be stupid first. We never say teachers teach poorly. But this makes Thai children not good at mathematics. When they are not good at mathematics, it leads to the inability to do technology. It doesn't create that mindset because children are brainwashed to hate mathematics. So, when it comes to this point, it turns out that for people to change, Kita, there must be a crisis that forces them to change. Therefore, a financial crisis, a major recession, and then a large war around the world to rebuild and create anew, because the city needs Smart Cities, it will happen there to change people and filter people out another layer. Then enter the system called Agenda 2030, which is population reduction. This is all interconnected, professor, the financial aspect, the economic aspect, and the technological aspect.

Yes. But there is another dimension that the world is currently facing. Under competition and all sorts of volatility, there have been conflicts for many years. And this year, we see it even more clearly. We, or Thai people, feel it acutely because conflicts have occurred at our border. We may have been watching the wars in Israel, Russia, and various hotspots. We can still talk to the professor, but perhaps no one expected that one day we would have to witness the use of weapons of war, fighting, and casualties in Thailand. If we look at the geopolitical dimension, the dimension of war, which the professor has warned about for a long time, and the term "World War III," which the professor said has already begun, the picture is becoming clearer and clearer. 2025 is moving towards 2026. Professor, what is the outlook for global-level wars and global-level conflicts?

To use the words of Pope Francis XIV, he said in Palestine, in Lebanon recently, that World War III has already formed around the world at this moment. It's like coming back to your question, Kita, that our country didn't think there would be a war, and I didn't either. I will ask the viewers a question: Who are we fighting with? Who are we fighting with now?

That's a very important question. Are we fighting with neighboring countries, or are we fighting with those behind them?

More than that, and they are sending them into the battlefield. Like when I was asked if Zelensky and Putin could talk in 2022 when the war started, I asked, who is Russia fighting with? Does Zelensky have the power to decide anything?

Which sounds similar to what we've heard about proxy wars.

Yes. Therefore, if we see the war in Russia-Ukraine as a war between Russia and NATO fighting on Ukrainian territory, we will see the whole picture. We see Chinese weapons, we see Chinese drones, we see North Korean soldiers.

We see the connection between Russia and Iran in terms of missiles. And I once said, don't underestimate Iranian missiles. A deviation of centimeters from the target is possible, as seen in the 12-day war with Israel. So much so that Israel couldn't continue and had to ask Trump to negotiate, and Iran agreed first, because if America got involved, they wouldn't have a defense system. In the end, China approved about 60 fighter jets with pilots. During this time, they were taught, and Russia sent S-300s as a defense system for Kim Il-sung, and another squadron of Russian aircraft to defend, because Iran does not have its own air force. So, here it is clear that the world is divided into two sides: NATO or G7, on one side, and on the other side. We see it clearly. And we will see another picture: it's not just war, Kita. There is also chaos within each country. Which, in our country, we will discuss later. We will see in Europe there is chaos, inequality, children have no opportunities in terms of careers, but adults get good welfare. And in America, there are also issues of disparity and many other things. So, this is the foundation for creating conflict, nurturing what is called, not to the point of civil war, but it will create chaos or unrest like what happened in Pakistan, sorry, like what happened in Nepal. So, the question is, did Nepal have problems because someone set up the system for Nepal to have problems? And then we will see that all around China, it will be a region with internal problems, starting from Japan.

Taiwan, Philippines, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Nepal, Afghanistan, and then to Iran. This is the circle around China.

It looks like a Ring of Fire in a war version.

Yes.

Where the boiling points or conflict points are placed around China.

Yes. And importantly, it's not just fighting on the battlefield. It's about making people within the country fight each other. There was a saying when Queen Elizabeth I defeated the Spanish Armada.

And the way to make England strong was to tell them to send our people to stir up the Spanish people and make them kill each other so that we could be safe and benefit.

Divide.

Divide.

And conquer.

And benefit from that conflict.

Which you are saying this pattern is happening now. It's still the same.

It has been going on all along. There must be nurturing. Nurturing these people.

And from the conflicts at each point that are happening now, professor, in 2026 and after, how will the development proceed? In Asia, we see that there are conflicts around China, and ours is still a problem and difficult to solve. Other parts of the world, Russia-Ukraine, said it would end but it hasn't ended. Israel-Iran, there's a ceasefire, but there are still intermittent clashes.

What are your concerns about the boiling points in 2026, professor?

There are a total of 4 points. The first point is Israel and Iran, because Netanyahu is lobbying for Trump to help manage Iran. Trump himself is ambivalent because what Iran has is something that can manage America. That is, America will have to send warships, but Iran uses missiles to shoot. So, as I have interviewed many times, they will shoot decoys to make the defense system work first. When the defense system is overloaded, they will shoot the real ones. Therefore, the American fleet is very concerned about this. The first point is Iran and Israel, which I highlight as number 1. The second point is Venezuela, which is also overlooked, but suddenly there is a conflict.

I think Venezuela might have more than just oil, because bordering Venezuela is Chile, which has lithium deposits. I'm looking at rare earths, but they haven't been revealed yet. But they use oil for some reasons. Therefore, what America lacks now and doesn't want to fight China is rare earths. Without rare earths, all of America's industries will be paralyzed. They need to find replacements.

But China is using this time to change its technological structure. And another point, which is very indie, is Japan.

I fear that Japan will open up to North Korea. Japan and North Korea. We see Japan this year seeming to have a conflict with China, but it's a diplomatic clash.

But why bring it up to North Korea, professor?

North Korea might be the one to start the game to cause a clash with Japan and then consolidate Taiwan.

But I think we have to wait. We have to wait for China to sort out its domestic affairs first, especially in terms of infrastructure and the entire management system.

So that there are no hindrances.

But with Japan, actually, does Japan have the military strength to fight? Because since World War II, we have seen that Japan's security system depends on America.

Japanese technology, they don't produce weapons, but they haven't stopped developing war technology. Companies like Mitsubishi Heavy are researching war equipment and have blueprints. What Japan can do is amend the constitution and expand factories.

Like what they are trying to do now.

Like what they are doing now, expanding and escalating conflicts, and encouraging Japanese people to become soldiers more, and relying on the American army. So, the surrounding ring will heat up everywhere without us noticing, that it might be a normal thing. Because there will be questions: when will it happen? When will they fight? But there are many more reasons than that. Kita, you will see that at the last two meetings in China, there were significant unveilings. One picture showed Modi leading Xi Jinping and Putin, and they sat and talked with laughter in front of a restroom.

It's a picture of a breakup, saying India doesn't have to deal with America. Let's do trade again here and build a new ecosystem without America. And another picture is in Beijing, where Xi Jinping is leading, with Putin, Kim Jong Un of Korea, and the leader of Iran walking together, four of them. And...

Of several Eastern European countries. But among the four leading figures, that's a picture saying they are ready for war, both economically and in terms of violence, and we are allies, from the wars in Ukraine and Iran that we have seen.

And in essence, professor, the allied group seen there, including China and Russia.

Including India and some parts of Eastern Europe.

How stable is their relationship, because each side seems to have its own interests that are quite conflicting within the team?

I use the word "interests are aligned" for now, due to the tariff case.

Which made India change its mind immediately.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Is my friend.

They have a common enemy.

Yes. At first, we saw India as neutral, but today India is not. It has fully entered the grand game.

Yes. Therefore, the heat will increase continuously. The clash will happen when everyone is ready. But I can say that when war comes, no one is ready. But when it reaches a certain point, it will have to happen. Because we have been discussing from the beginning, we see that there will definitely be an economic crisis. Which is already happening in the economic crisis phase 1, which is the lack of circulation. We haven't seen an immediate crash. If there is a major crash, the entire system will collapse. And the matter of technology. Whoever leads will win World War III. It will create what is called the leader of the New World Order, who will set the rules for the new world order in terms of the emerging technological world. And the world population, which is facing problems of conflict and poverty, will become increasingly severe, especially with the economy falling, which will cause widespread chaos around the world.

Is that the reason that leads to war, professor? Scarcity, intense competition for technology for supremacy, or even issues in the money and capital markets that cause crises?

It's all three things happening at the same time. So, what causes the economic crisis is that, what do you call it, all these zombie companies can no longer continue, and these zombie companies make up more than 80% of the world.

We see it clearly from the money that flows only into specific industry groups, Kita. You know, we've been reporting on the economy for a long time. Have we ever seen companies not yet listed on the stock exchange valued at hundreds of billions or trillions? We've never seen that. But how is money circulating to this extent to go into companies like OpenAI or Mortet in China, which is happening now?

But if we step back and look at the fundamental reasons, professor, you have been warning us about economic crises, conflicts, and wars all along. What is the fundamental reason?

Why must war happen? Even though we see that two wars have caused loss and destruction, and we always hear the saying that no one benefits from war.

Yes, war is trade, and trade is war. The winner is the one who sets the new history afterward. No one does not benefit from war. Therefore, those who, like in World War I, World War II, what caused World War I? An economic crisis.

Yes. And banks had problems, so banks incited war, provoked war, and in the end, banks grew after the global economic crisis, after World War I. And when World War II occurred, banks set the regulations. So, all banks will become controllers of the system's problems. Therefore, banks are currently having problems, and banks need solutions. Kita, you will see that in 2000, when the dot-com bubble burst, there was a very large company.

Yes.

It led the way. We don't mention Elon, we don't mention WorldCom, because they went bankrupt.

Yes.

Cisco is still around today. Is Cisco rising this time?

Not at all.

Not at all, right? Because Cisco is like...

Like it doesn't exist. Because 25 years have passed, Cisco's technology is gone. We don't hear about IBM. IBM is still too big, its structure is too cumbersome to change. We don't hear about the Seven Angels. But the business question is, are banks still JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, BNP Paribas, and the other 5 banks in England that are driving it?

They still are.

Yes. And it has been like this for over 100 years.

Yes. Therefore, the root of all conflicts is technology and bank investments to increase profits. Let me give a simple example. World War I was a major transfer of wealth.

Yes.

Britain collected gold for 200 years, but all the gold was gone in the first year to the United States, for buying, what do you call it, war weapons and war supplies.

Britain's gold was all gone to America, and then Britain had to borrow money from America to fight the war. They borrowed from JP Morgan to fight the war. After World War I ended, Britain had to make Germany pay reparations.

Yes.

The question is, Britain has no money, and Germany has no money. So what will JP Morgan do? JP Morgan arranged to lend money to Germany. And Germany used that money to pay Britain's reparations.

Yes.

And Britain repaid the loan to JP Morgan.

It's a war economy.

War finance system.

The financial system is behind all conflicts. And JP Morgan grew from assets of about 500 million dollars to 1.3 billion dollars within 4 years of World War I. And traded with Hitler and financed Hitler to build war equipment.

And the technology companies of that time, whether it was BMW or other companies, received financing from JP Morgan. And JP Morgan gave it to Hitler, who then supported those companies and started the war. That's all. So, there is an economic system, a trade system, a money circulation system behind every war. Every war has a cost.

And every war has a profit.

And a lot of profit. For example, the Napoleonic Wars. The Rothschild family's profits increased from an investment of only 20,000 pounds, more than 200 years ago. The first investment was 20,000 pounds. After 17 years of conflict in Europe, they became rich with 50 million pounds. The profit was tens of thousands of times. In World War I and II, they controlled the entire global financial system by creating the IMF and the World Bank. For example, as we discussed earlier, France could not solve its own country's problems until the IMF wrote new laws for France, which will happen soon.

Yes. Therefore, it will happen when there is a reset. There will have to be a demolition and rebuilding, and then a new wealth system, a new technological innovation system will be created.

A new way of life and a new world order.

And I will also tell everyone that if we understand the word "crisis is opportunity," I will ask what is a crisis and what is an opportunity. Earlier, I said that in past crises, the elites behind them grew 50,000 times. And every 100 years, they grow like this. The question is, why don't we learn what this crisis is and where the opportunity lies? And we think like the elites, who everyone criticizes me as a conspiracy theorist. But Kita, you will see that in the last 2 years, the companies I recommended have not grown by 10-20%, but by 5-6 times all the time, because we understand what a crisis is, and where it is going. If we understand this, the opportunity to grow by hundreds of times, many hundreds of times, is in this 10-year period. Therefore, it means that if you say, "Oh, it's scary, let's save money." If inflation rises, your money depreciates immediately. This is even more dangerous. Therefore, what we should learn at this time is to learn what a crisis is and where we can seize opportunities from it. And this kind of cycle, Kita, happens once every 100 years.

Therefore, if we say this is the most severe crisis in the world in over 100 years, it is also a great opportunity once every 100 years.

Once every 100 years, the same.

Therefore, it is very important, professor, that we understand the crisis. We are not here to give everyone only a perspective of fear and anxiety, but as you said, if we know how the system works.

What is the crisis, and we study it, and we look at it and say, "Okay, how can we survive this potentially terrible situation, and how can we seize opportunities from it?"

We don't look at survival, Kita. We have to look at how to win this game. It's all a game. We have to think like the rich people in the world. There are two types. Like the wealthy people in Thailand, they are called ultra-rich.

But those who control the world are called the elites. We have to learn what they are thinking. Why did Jamie Dimon say, "If you see one cockroach, it means there are many," and everyone talked about it for months.

Yes. Because this is someone from the elite who can say what is about to happen significantly, and the whole world has to listen when people like this speak.

The elites you are referring to, do you mean the families of wealthy people?

They have power. They are the superpowers of the world.

They are the superpowers of the world, and we learn what they are thinking and what they are doing.

Yes. Like now in France, they are attacking Emmanuel Macron, saying he ruined the economy.

Because he benefited the Rothschilds, because Macron is a person from the Rothschild bank who came to manage the country.

Yes. Like this, we have to understand what benefits are there in that crisis, what is happening. Kita, when you reported on Greece, do you remember your feelings then?

During the Eurozone debt crisis, Greece was on the verge of collapse.

This year, Greece's stock market yield is 40%.

It's a completely different picture from that day. It's a different movie. That day, we thought they would be kicked out of the Eurozone and collapse.

Because we were hypnotized by the news.

Yes. We always have fear, uncertainty, and apprehension about things that are like crises.

The world is driven by hope and fear. So, we have to manage hope and fear. But if we are above hope and fear, we will see that the process is like this: 1, 2, 3, 4, and it repeats itself over and over again. Why don't we learn from that? Earlier, I mentioned the Greek stock market.

But if you, Kita, had bought Greek bonds that day, priced at 100, sold at 5 euros.

Yes.

You would have made 20 times the profit immediately.

But of course, no one would have dared that day, professor.

Yes, people who know the system. Like the crisis in Sri Lanka. My student, professor, where can I buy Sri Lankan bonds?

That is truly crisis as opportunity.

Yes. And Sri Lanka is already over. The bonds have returned to 100 again from defaulting.

Yes. Therefore, crises do not last forever, and prosperity does not last forever. It rises and falls in cycles.

Yes, yes. Therefore, we must see it like the East India Company wrote: war is trade, and trade is war.

It sounds painful, but it is the reality of the world that we must learn. If we break it down into opportunities, as you see the superpowers of the world doing, and the events that will happen, the crisis, war, conflict, and severe turmoil once every 100 years, what assets have opportunities?

Everything. And the biggest highlight right now is the bond market.

The bond market that you mentioned, the bond superpower will create a supernova, will be the cause of the crisis.

Yes. The global bond market, which is 3 million to 300 trillion dollars, is a great opportunity.

Yes. The gold market, crypto, I'm still 50-50, I don't dare, I don't dare to talk about it.

And the stock market.

Let's start with the bond market first. Professor, do you mean American bonds or bonds from where? Should we stick with bonds from safe countries, or how should we choose?

The worst countries. 2008, what was the crisis?

Subprime mortgages.

There was a massive sell-off of assets then. The world was going to collapse.

Yes.

But Stephen Schwarzman, the owner of Blackstone.

Yes.

Bought 400,000 houses in America within 2-3 weeks. He bought all the contracts without even looking at the houses.

Yes. Private credit came in and bought houses. Because at that time, house prices had dropped by 40%. And American houses, if it weren't for such a crisis, the prices wouldn't have dropped this much.

Yes. So, it dropped to the point where there was no risk left. And on some days, Blackstone sold 10,000 houses a day.

Yes. They had to hire outsourced staff to handle the transfer of houses at prices that increased from 40 to 120.

That is truly seizing opportunities from a crisis. But it must have been buying when it was very cheap, right?

When it was being sold off, bought without looking at the houses, over 400,000 houses.

Blackstone went in and bought mortgage-backed securities. They understood the system and bought them. As a result, in the following year, they made a profit of 15%. And with a 0% interest rate in the bond market, that's a lot. And they sold them to the Federal Reserve.

Yes.

When the Federal Reserve said they would buy mortgage-backed securities in Q3. But Blackstone, this is the nickname "King of Bonds," professor. If we look at...

The methods of the "King of Bonds," and we apply them to ourselves, as ordinary people, professor, can we make such profits? Professor, when is the right time, and how should we plan buying and selling?

Now, the global market is accessible to everyone. Everything is accessible.

Yes. There are many funds. Otherwise, would Blackstone manage companies all over the world? Because they also manage other people's money, right? Blackstone alone has almost everything.

Therefore, buying assets through funds at a time when the market crashes, when it falls heavily, is an option we should consider if we know how the system works.

Yes.

It must come from thorough study first.

Ah, and another thing that you said about technology coming. We talked with Kita at the beginning of last year and said, look at quantum companies like Wave.

It rose from 45 dollars to over 40 dollars within a year, a tenfold increase, not 10%, but a tenfold increase.

This is us seeing the trend.

Yes. Therefore, in the hands of trends, there are also crises in the hands.

Yes. In the mood of saying we don't have enough money to buy everything, and it returns like this.

Another point is gold. This year, gold has had the best performance, up over 60%. But it's not surprising that during the year, there was still FOMO, people got stuck with high prices and sold low. So, in conclusion, professor, will gold be the ultimate asset next year and in the future?

We will still see gold. Gold will be number 1 in this transition period. Therefore, as we discussed earlier, gold has risen by almost 5%. This will be a 5% to back America's debt.

And if it rises to 10%, how much will that be? And if we use the same theory, how much will gold be per baht? I don't know, but I'll take the short term first, to 85,000 baht per baht.

The other day I saw Next Station 75,000. Has it gone up to 85,000 now, professor?

That's without being too excited. But what I see is likely around there. But we might encounter currency issues. The Thai baht might be seen at 28.

It might be seen at 28.

The Thai baht will strengthen to 28.

It should be around that.

Why, professor? Right now, the dollar has to weaken itself.

From Trump's policy.

From Trump's policy. Therefore, it has nothing to do with crypto or money. Trump's policy alone will cause the dollar to weaken, because he wants to return to being an exporting country. Therefore, he will force American goods to become more expensive to be competitive enough to set up new factories in America.

Yes.

That is the long-term strategy.

But returning to gold, professor, you said it will be an asset during the transition period. Because we have been discussing throughout the program, the world is changing its system, and during the transition of systems, both technology and politics, there must be an asset that serves as a guarantee of currency confidence.

That is gold. Gold will be an important factor and can be converted into other assets in each crisis that occurs. So, if we understand, Kita, we just sit and watch. This is how we play the game, this is how we play the game.

But it has risen by over 60% this year. Is it just the beginning?

It's just the beginning. In this crisis, we will still have many unexpected things.

And earlier, you also mentioned the percentage. If gold is calculated against bonds.

Prices in the tens of thousands or even further, 40,000, 50,000.

That is what I think is overestimating. But I think 5,000-1,000 will definitely be reached. Now, we are seeing a rapid accumulation of gold, according to data.

From global media sources in America, there are over 8,000 tons. We haven't seen the real figures yet, but we see China is buying gold, and Big is also buying gold. Professor, what is your view on China's and Big's role in this gold accumulation?

Because they want to use it as a reference for transactions in a digital currency system. Digital currency is not issuing tokens, but it is a transaction system that does not go through the SWIFT system. That is, China's SWIFT system.

And why do they need gold, professor?

Gold is the only thing that can measure universal value, regardless of currency. That's why they simulate gold with Bitcoin. Because gold and Bitcoin are similar in that they can be converted into all currencies.

But if the goal is to back the digital currency.

Does that mean they have to buy more gold? How much gold is needed to guarantee that their currency will be issued credibly?

I think the current holdings are sufficient, especially for China.

China has over 2,000 tons.

And 2,500 tons are held by the central bank, Kita.

But commercial banks hold another 3,000 tons to back yuan gold futures contracts.

So, combined, they have more than 5,000.

More than the IMF. And that doesn't include gold shops and ordinary people who hold gold.

Yes. The Chinese people also understand that they have gold.

They have gold. We went to Hong Kong, did you see it? One gold chain.

You need someone to help carry it.

And Big, right, professor? Other countries like Russia, India, and others, what is their role with gold?

Russia has the highest role with gold. Because their currency has now terminated the dollar almost entirely and has converted it to gold that they hold. And they also produce it themselves, over 1,000 tons per year.

And other countries, professor? India, or are they still buying? Others still have economic problems, so they probably don't have enough to buy as much. But the main countries can sustain themselves, and this will allow middle and lower-tier countries to receive assistance, to receive these things.

But from the data, America also has the largest amount in the world, professor.

8,500 tons. That's why I said 8,500 tons of gold is a weapon they will use to back their debt. It's another card, a final card, after if anything happens to America's debt system. It's simple, use Executive Order 6102 to set the price of gold at whatever dollar amount. I don't think it should be less than 10,000 dollars per ounce.

Therefore, America has both the dollar as a currency and gold as a backing.

And they still have.

The idea of stablecoins, Bitcoin. Will it erase all financial concepts?

It will be a supplement.

But if a new generation asks, professor, in this era, does gold still have value? Or is it difficult to transport? You said there will be wars, and we will have to transport gold. What about Bitcoin? Isn't Bitcoin more like the gold of this digital age?

Well, it depends on the perspective. But Bitcoin is another thing. It's not yet in Tier 1.

1. The second one, as it is transitioning from the digital age to the quantum age, it remains a question whether it will still be an answer in the quantum age. This is up to you, but when the time comes and we reach that era, we will see again. >> So, from the professor's perspective, looking at both history and the future, >> gold still has more stability in this transition. >> This period, more than more. >> Yes. >> We have laws to support it. >> Uh-huh. And Kittak, have you ever heard the professor say that in one era, there won't be enough gold in the world for people to buy? >> Yes, sir. >> What does that mean? >> It's almost not enough now. Every month, we have to buy it little by little because central banks around the world want to terminate the dollar from their portfolios. >> But will it be a continuous rise in gold prices, or will it only happen during the transition period, professor? >> Only during the transition period, only during the transition period. Because at some point, you will have to sell gold and hold other assets. >> It's not an asset you hold forever. >> Uh, you can hold it for a lifetime, but if you want higher returns in the future, after the economy crashes, there are many other opportunities. >> I see everything as a hypothesis, Khun Guitar. I move from one hypothesis to another continuously. >> We are not attached to anything, not even one thing, but we look at the reasons and factors in the price that is discounted, and then there will be capital gains after that. This is what investors should look at. >> And another asset that people have been talking about and are very popular with this year is technology stocks, professor. Stocks in the unicorn group, and on the other hand, it is seen that America is the hub of leading technology businesses. Therefore, the American stock market will be an attractive place to invest. If you are not good at investing in tech, invest in the S&P 500. What is your perspective on investing in >> American stocks and these tech stocks? >> I don't see tech stocks as a bubble, but I see money flowing into new industries, which is not surprising. And industries like aerospace, and other industries, they are the new industries that are coming. But what is concerning is the banking system. No matter how good a company is, Khun Guitar, if the banking system has problems and collapses, dominoes will fall. Even good companies cannot survive. Therefore, today it is just overvalued. >> And it is questioned whether, if China builds its own ecosystem, its own path, what will the competition be like in the future? Because today, the value has risen dramatically. It won't rise because the financials are good, because there has been secret buying, stockpiling, and so on, right? There has been investment in infrastructure, etc. But after this, the question will be whether it will pause here first. And if financial institutions, especially regional banks in America, have any problems, no matter how good the stocks are, the liquidity will be sold off severely through all the fund systems. >> Yes. Therefore, when we buy American stocks, invest in tech stocks hoping for growth opportunities, we must be cautious of the risks from financial institution crises. >> American financial institutions as well. >> This is the asset side. Finally, I would like to return to Thailand. Our situation is facing storms from all dimensions. >> Uh-huh. Regarding the economy, we are growing slowly. Regarding politics, we are in a stalemate. We have geopolitical issues, natural disasters that lead to losses in all dimensions as well. Moving towards 2026, how do you see Thailand's future, professor? >> This year, 2025, I say that this year the economy will be around 50. >> Yes. >> If the economy is good, it will be 75-1 or higher. >> Yes. In the year 2026, or the year 2569, I give it 40%, and I give the year 2000, uh, 27, or 70 >> at 30%. >> So the score will decrease gradually, professor. From this year, it decreases. >> And next year it decreases. >> Yes, and it will decrease further, and the next year will be even worse. >> No. And the year 70 will be the bottom. >> And in 2028, or 2571, or 2028. >> It will return to 60%. >> Therefore, in the year 2027, let's say, be strong-hearted. >> Let's put it this way: if in the next 2 years, our financial institution system remains strong. >> Yes. >> We will not be in a bad situation. Therefore, do whatever it takes to ensure that financial institutions do not have any problems, and then we will grow back rapidly. And I think we will recover from the state of war. >> 2569 and 2570 will be the period. >> The most difficult, especially 2570. >> Yes. So 2570 will be a consequence of 2569. >> Which we are about to enter, professor. >> Yes. We have elections in February. >> Yes. >> It will take time to agree. I won't use another word. I think it will be around May. >> Yes. >> So, it means we will be like this for about 5-6 months, and we might have a government that doesn't understand what the country is facing, what the world is facing, and what problems to solve. The system of governance in Thailand, that we have reached this point, is because we have structural failures. Therefore, this election will not help anything, but it will make everything worse. But that is the reason why Thai people have to pay the price themselves by believing that this system is good. Our economic structure is OEM, but we keep asking for wage increases all the time. So, when the base shifts, we immediately become zombies, and we don't have our own innovation. Therefore, what Thailand is known for is an Entertainment Country, a Holiday Country. If people don't come to travel, everything falters. Because now, many countries are starting to have money not circulating, but they come to Thailand because it's not too expensive. And our exports, our products are expensive. We hardly export anything, except for some semiconductors, which are few. But we still export rice in sacks like when I was a child, Khun Guitar, before you were born. >> Yes. >> Exporting rice. >> In sacks. >> In sacks, and we have rice in sacks that is a bit more expensive, from 5,000 to 10,000, but it took 50 years. >> Our products haven't changed. We haven't added any innovation. >> So, don't be surprised that we grow slowly, grow slowly. >> Uh-huh. So, the only thing that can solve Thailand's problems is that the country's structure must change, starting from the education system, the way of thinking, etc. When I do company transformation, I know well that the problem lies with people. The problem lies with people who cannot change. So, don't be surprised that I say today, we see zombie corporations in the stock market. I think it's about 30-40% already. Those that don't grow but don't die, not including those that siphon money, that's a special case. But the rest are just running along. We don't have innovative companies that make you say "wow" immediately because the big problem is that Thai people think that the Thai economy is domestic trade. >> Yes. >> But we don't think globally. But China is very aggressive in competition. They say, "We must go global. The world is our market." When the mindset is different, it becomes what it is now. >> But the point that the professor seems most concerned about is the banking system and businesses, including liquidity and debt repayment. >> Debt repayment as well. But our interest rates can probably still be sustained. But we have to see first. >> Yes. >> What will happen on the American and Japanese sides? Because our debt, about 90%, is borrowed from Japan. >> Yes. >> And now interest rates have risen so high. >> Now we clearly see the situation that Thai people are heavily indebted. Household debt is high, around 80-90%. Government debt is also near the ceiling, and private debt as well, which carries risks regarding the business situation and default. The risk of default. And how severe will it be to affect the entire system? >> It will be gradual, gradual. But the level of severity, Khun Guitar, have you heard anything frequently lately? High society defaulting on debts, high society smiling and borrowing money. >> Yes, yes. >> And >> the wealthy, the rich people, who we think are rich, they default on their debts. >> Do you understand what I said 2-3 years ago that it's not circulating? >> Yes. >> It hasn't been circulating for 2-3 years. >> At first, it was very difficult to imagine, professor, what would happen to large businesses. Or sometimes, we only think about large businesses as individual companies. But now we are starting to see that >> the people we think are rich, or businesses we think are rich, are not like that. >> This is the danger of not circulating. >> Yes. >> And this is just news. How much more is not reported and checks are not circulating? So, we must see that the rich, we can look at the balance sheets of companies in the stock market. Wealthy families will have more loans than assets. >> Yes. >> So, they are rich from total assets, not from pure equity. In equity, it's on a very high debt-to-equity ratio. And we are entering the death spiral, the final stage of the death spiral. This is where low interest rates are. And if they go up high again, that's why the Bank of Thailand is not raising or lowering interest rates. It's to keep it in the middle. It can't go down, and it can't go up. Approximately like this. >> Regarding the investments made in the past, we understand that there must have been a lot of leverage, and we have seen the ill effects of leverage that have caused many companies serious problems in the past 1-2 years. Do you think this will happen again? >> We will see it, we will see it become normal in these 2 years. I said what I worry about most is that financial institutions must endure. Right now, everyone is still seeing an illusion. >> Because if one, two, four, five debtors default, they cannot repay their creditors. And if the bonds default, the banks have to borrow from the banks first to issue bonds, right? >> They will not be able to pay interest. >> See? Some people look high society and luxurious. >> But they can't pay interest. And what happens? Money doesn't circulate in time, but they still live luxuriously. Something like that. We see this quite a lot in Thai society, and it will be like this next year, where we will see money not circulating becoming more severe. Don't forget, 40 and 30. >> That means the percentage scores you give, professor. 100 full points. Next year, 40. Year 70, 30. Whoever said this year is burning for real, next year. >> Is there anything left to burn, professor? >> There hasn't been anything to burn for 2 years. >> It's all burnt out, all burnt out. Because, as I said, the real estate industry ended in 2023. 242, which was 3 years ago. Everything has stalled. >> But from the perspective of analysis firms and research firms, they will say that almost every engine is failing: exports, tourism, consumption, and even government spending are stumbling. It's clear, isn't it? That besides the blood not circulating, there is no pressure, no force to make the economy move. >> We missed the point that we thought the government was the one to make it move. >> Uh-huh. >> Actually, no. The country reached this point because the private sector made it move. The government doesn't have enough intelligence to know how to build the country. >> Yes. >> But we have private sectors, large family groups, that built it. But now it's a transition period. They are used to industries of the 3rd era and are challenged by industries of the 4th era. This transformation process is not easy. >> Yes. >> But that's who built the country. >> So, what the professor has learned or seen from doing business transformation is that even large businesses, which are the locomotives of the economy, are not ready to change much, right? >> It's not easy to change. And we have many people who are not ready to change. And we have people who don't know they need to change because the industry they are in can no longer continue. >> Yes. >> As we discussed earlier, GOH was a top stock, but where is TISCO today, we don't know, right? In GOH itself. >> America. And we see that it's new stocks. We have to accept that today we are TISCO, which was very good 25 years ago, but today it's not. It's just waiting to die. Will we be like TOY or like Bust? That suddenly collapses in the end. >> Yes. >> And collapses under a pile of debt, and the debt bounces back to financial institutions. >> But for the workers, professor, the people in the system who may not have the power to determine the future of country management, and are not owners of giant businesses, who have to fight against change. Are we just accepting the consequences of that change? What can we do? What can't we do? We are in a system where we can't do anything unless you start your own business or have to brace yourself as much as possible. Therefore, next year will be a year of severe restructuring for companies, meaning a massive layoff will be very intense next year. >> And what do you recommend for people who have to face changes from this system? >> You have to find a side hustle. You have to find as many side hustles as possible. We have what, 2 million influencers out of a population of 50 million. >> Does this show something? That the system has a problem? >> Yes. >> Right? And not all influencers are successful. Many still earn less than a regular job. It means they couldn't work in regular jobs, or could they? And they come to do this, investing with the expectation of getting returns, which is not the case. >> So, on the other hand, finding a second or third profession is a good thing, right? >> Second, third, fourth even. >> But it's not easy to grab money from a place that is very dry and has almost no fish. >> Nothing is easy. It's a filtering period for people. >> We will see many more unexpected things. >> Such as deleting oneself or something like that. Saving money in this era, professor. >> Emergency savings. How do you recommend emergency savings, professor? You are someone who has been through crises and has returned gracefully. But today, we will face it again. We will face another crisis. How do you recommend saving cash, financial planning, and life planning? >> This is very important, especially regarding debt. How will you negotiate with creditors? And managing your own liquidity. We can see that in flood crises, natural disaster crises, or anything like that, people without money are a big problem for the world, not just Thailand. >> Therefore, we must take good care of our financial liquidity, which is not easy because today it's difficult to circulate. Speaking of it, it's theory. >> Yes. >> Yes. Do a lot of good deeds, be careful. >> Yes, do a lot of good deeds. That might help one thing. It means if you should do it, because the professor said next year's crisis, the next crisis will be worse. So, if you have to save cash or be careful with cash allocation, it's for 2 full years, professor. >> Saving is not easy, Khun Guitar. >> Yes. >> Finding more work is easier. >> So, we have to focus on earning income. >> Ah, and there are many ways to earn income. Let's try to find them. There isn't just one clear method. It depends on each person's aptitude. >> But if you still have some, professor. Is it better to save as cash or as gold? >> Let's divide it. Buying gold is not easy anymore because the baht has risen to over 60,000. >> But some people say to save. Financial planners recommend saving 6 months, 12 months. It's hard to find even at the end of the month. >> Tomorrow will be difficult. >> Yes. But if we have cash now, we should do it, right, professor? Not to rush into investing or buying any assets anywhere. You save first. >> And be frugal. When it comes to investing, I don't forbid it, but I don't agree with the current investment methods. In fact, I've been in the capital market for almost 20 years, and I see that we invest like buying lottery tickets. That is, investing today, we must get money today, or we invest like going to a casino. But we don't invest in the meaning that I understand, which is to put money down and wait for the right time, whether there's a crisis and we buy things cheap, or it's a new global trend. >> And wait for the stock price to fall to the absolute bottom. Not when we talk about investing, it becomes like going to a casino, like playing the lottery. So, when we use the word "invest," it becomes a bit sensitive in the sense of not being the same. >> And what is correct investment according to your definition, professor? >> Yes, it means putting money to buy assets that are low-priced during a crisis or at the current time when they are low and have a chance to recover, or something that is a global trend. We can go there. But it's not that it's a global trend, but a company worth 5 trillion, Khun Guitar, will it be easy to make it 8 trillion? >> Yes. >> But if we find a company worth 1 billion, 2 billion dollars, and it goes up to 10 billion, this is easier, right? >> Yes. That's the side of >> the stock market. >> Thailand's economic crisis. Now, Thailand is facing a crisis within a crisis. We have a conflict with Cambodia. >> Yes. >> This year. And the point you told us earlier is that this is also a strategic point in the Indo-Pacific for major powers. How are these conflicts connected? And how much does it have implications for the global system's changes, professor? >> We are already a key piece on the global chessboard. Because we see interference from neighboring countries, from major powers, and interference from major powers, and the inaction of major powers that benefit and try to make themselves useful, and these movements, both domestic and foreign, through media, through individuals, through anything, it's all one piece. So, we can clearly observe that everything is one piece. Therefore, it is a process to create conflict in this world. And that conflict will lead to severe conflict within countries, not just in Thailand. So, in the next, let's say, 5 months, we will be very busy with political matters, which ultimately won't solve anything but create more problems. After that, it takes time, at least 5 months, which is 2 quarters. That's not easy, it's half a year. Therefore, in this situation, we are on the global chessboard, and we are an important piece. So, the question is, what will we do? I believe in the potential of the Thai army to manage this conflict and resolve it decisively. And another aspect that I strongly believe in is the leadership of the Thai army, meaning the supreme commander of the Thai army. I believe that he has a clear global perspective, especially with his travels and diplomatic relations, which are symbols for this country. This is what makes me quite confident in Thailand that we will be able to stand firm through this crisis, unlike during World War II. >> Thank you very much for your perspective, professor. And finally, if there is anything you would like to leave with the viewers, consider it a New Year's gift for those who follow. We have seen the entire global system changing, crises, wars, conflicts, and Thailand's situation, where we will be in the midst of a storm of crises. But one day, we will get through it. We must be patient for the next 1-2 years. What do you recommend for Thai people, Thai business people, and Thai investors who are following us, professor? >> Uh, Thai people should live without too much fear. 2 years will pass quickly. So, use the term "maintain your liquidity well." Ultimately, whether you have it or not, it will get by. As for business people, they must look at the global transformation process and place themselves in opportunities. We built the country from OEM, from experimentation. We don't have our own innovation, so it's not easy. But how can we jump on these OEM? If China can do it, right? Like we sell tea, but suddenly China makes tea shops and becomes a global brand. >> Why don't we make our tea a global brand? >> Sometimes it's simple, but we don't think about making it bigger, or using communication tools to reach different countries. Therefore, we have to think, we have to do a lot of business models, and we have to dare to make decisions. And don't spend extravagantly. This is a period of great global change, and it will take a long time. What is the bad thing about this journey is the liquidity in the system. It will get worse and worse. So, we must prepare to deal with this well. >> Finally, what about investors, professor? >> For investors, this period will be a great opportunity, once in 100 years. And if we get through these 10 years, this opportunity will not come back like this again. As I said, think and see in each multi-asset. That is a significant opportunity that has never existed before, and it is right in front of us. >> Today, thank you very much, professor, for reflecting the world to us. Thank you very much, professor. >> Goodbye.