Transcription
Okay, okay, I'll answer in a straightforward manner. It's not possible. The problem with gold is that if we want to trade gold, we must understand that looking at the yield, gold can't go anywhere. At first, I thought, "Wow, gold looks like a good investment, with the dollar strengthening and all that." But no, that's not it. It's not related to that; it's related to CAPEX. And you, Guitar, said it's going to be long, right? That's why you can't trade it. Issues like war, inflation, and interest rates are the current pressure points. And the yield, why has it gone up so much, so confusingly? Even though inflation hasn't arrived yet, AI CAPEX...
>> Thailand Gold Summit 2026, the biggest gold seminar in Thailand, is now available for rerun viewing.
>> Most people [Music] trade gold, 95% >> "Hey, why are they losing money?"
>> "The crisis period is the best time for you to convert cash into valuable assets that are depreciating."
>> You can watch the full replay on all Main State Stations. For more details, follow Z Event. Gold. Last night, it was hammered down by $100. What's your take on gold, P'Ping? This latest round.
>> I'll answer in a straightforward, real manner. It's like this: you can't do it. I've said before that I bought it, right? I prepared myself well. Gold in Thai Baht isn't failing. What I bought is at break-even price because the Baht is weak. But with the yield like this, you can't trade it. You, Guitar. Is that clear? The yield is as high as 3%. What are you going to do with gold? This is the problem with gold. If we want to trade gold, we must understand that looking at the yield, gold can't go anywhere. Uh.
>> Yes, but if you look at the trend like this, P'Ping, you'll see that the real yield doesn't just come from inflation or oil; it comes from AI CAPEX itself, which looks like a big cycle. Therefore.
>> So it will go up for a long time, won't it? It will suppress gold even longer.
>> It's risky. We have to keep watching. You can't trade it. At first, I thought, "Wow, gold looks like a good investment, with the dollar strengthening and all that." But no, that's not it. It's not related to that; it's related to CAPEX. And you, Guitar, said it's going to be long, right? That's why you can't trade it. Initially, notice that before, when we talked about gold, we focused on things like war.
>> Inflation.
>> Dollar.
>> Dollar. We only talked about these, but we forgot to talk about the massive investment by Hyperscalers. It has a significant impact. We haven't talked about this at all before. We forgot. But now I understand. Wow, it's not about war or anything like that, inflation, or interest rates.
>> No, what's currently pressuring is the yield. And the yield, why has it gone up so much, so confusingly? Even though inflation hasn't arrived yet, AI CAPEX. Uh, I just understood.
>> I have to sing along with you.
>> The group that might hold it for stability, this group might not care much about the yield. These tech investors are still buying. If we look at stability, having it to manage risk, as a small hedge in the portfolio, can it still be there?
>> Hmm, I'm not sure. And even if oil goes down, there's something that the bond yield, it's not going down, you know, Guitar. Uh, yesterday you saw Alphabet's earnings report. The earnings came out well, right?
>> Along with what announcement? Uh, Q2 CAPEX was also higher than expected.
>> This is the first one. The second is an increase in CAPEX. Uh, it exceeded $200 billion. Exceeded.
>> Yes.
>> When they increased the CAPEX, people could guess, "Oh, this year it will exceed the operating cash flow." Hey, once it exceeds, after deducting.
>> Uh, it becomes free cash flow. Free cash flow is simple: operating cash flow minus investing cash flow. Ah, so it's negative. Ah, when free cash flow is negative, what do you need to cover it with? You have to borrow money to cover it. When you borrow money, what do you have to do, Guitar? You have to raise capital. The capital raising figures, right now, for the entire group, these Hyperscalers, it's twice as much as last year. Last year it was around $180,000 million. This year it will be around $350,000-360,000 million. Total for 2 years, $500,000 million. You are draining money from the system to invest. Not draining money from the system, my apologies. Raising capital to drain money, over $500 billion in 2 years. This is the reason why the yield is rising. It's not that the yield is rising because of inflation.
>> Yes.
>> Inflation expectations are still suppressed.
>> Yes.
>> When the yield rises like this, and inflation hasn't arrived yet, it hasn't arrived yet. What's the problem now? Real interest rates have arrived. The yield has risen. The yield keeps rising. 30-year. Actually, when bond yields go up, it's a sign of confidence in the economy and high investment. But right now, it's too much, so the yield keeps rising. When the yield is like this, according to the principle, it's not good for any asset. Because we invest to hedge against inflation, right, Guitar? According to the principle. Ah, why do we invest? Because if we don't invest at all, our money will depreciate due to inflation. But today, just buying US Treasury bonds, which hedge against inflation, is enough. You get 3%, and you don't have to worry about inflation because you've beaten inflation by 3%. Ah, so why would we buy gold? Why invest in stocks and get a headache? Uh, this will be another problem. Oh, it's a headache.
>> It's the AI CAPEX shock that has shaken the market today. And finally, P'Ping, what's the strategy in this kind of situation? We don't know whether to go right or left. Even though there's a tendency to lean left, nothing is certain in this era. P'Ping, what do you recommend for investors to arrange their portfolios, adjust their portfolios, and rebalance their portfolios right now?
>> If it's Thai stocks, I'll start with Thai stocks, the easiest. I've been saying it all along. Once it exceeds 1640, it's crossing the border from cheap to not cheap. So I will buy stocks. I won't buy more Thai stocks. I'll only sell. If I buy, I have to sell the old ones and buy less than before.
>> Yes.
>> For example, suppose I had a stock worth 100, and I had 1 million baht in one stock. I sold that stock for profit at that time, and no matter how I sold it, it was a profit. Thai stocks now, if I buy again, it will be 800,000 or 600,000 baht. That is, use less money. Don't buy new stocks.
>> Yes.
>> If you buy new stocks, you have to sell the old ones. Sell the old ones, get the money, and use this money to buy less. This is what I'm currently doing with Thai stocks.
>> Yes.
>> It's considered to be helping well, helping the portfolio well. And thank God too. Thai stocks haven't fallen much. But if it's foreign stocks, it's troublesome. I have a portfolio that invests a lot in foreign mutual funds. The solution is to have hedging. For example, increase the proportion of oil funds to help. And I have to accept selling some funds at a loss. For example, recently I sold the Vietnam fund. It was a good decision because some days it fell by 3%. And try to balance it as much as possible, meaning holding more cash, maybe 30-40%. My portfolio has both. I can't sell US stocks at all, Guitar, because yesterday, even with this issue, semiconductors didn't fall. Conductors didn't fall. Memory chips didn't fall. These AI hardware didn't fall. How could they fall when there's so much spending? Hyperscalers are like what I told you, Guitar. If people go gold mining, the gold miners might not find gold. So we have to buy what? We have to buy from the people who sell equipment to the gold miners, those who sell shovels and picks.
>> Uh, sell shovels, sell picks, sell gloves, things like that. They will come. But these have fallen a lot so far.
>> Ah, their opportunity. Uh, we collect. It just so happens that I have a lot of these, memory chips, semiconductors. So it turns out I can't sell them, so I have to hold on. Uh, that's about it. Mostly, I'm in a situation where I can't do anything, just hold on. I have to use the money I have to manage risk, maybe add more oil, or something like that. Uh. Yes. So, oil, P'Ping, will you sell it, or hold onto it, not buy more, or buy more?
>> What did you say?
>> Oil, P'Ping, will you just hold it or buy more?
>> Uh, I'm thinking about whether to sell it. As I said, it's already a profit. The others are at a loss. Uh, and if it reverses, and it's about to recover, do I have to cover it with oil? Maybe I should get rid of the oil first? I'm thinking about it. As I said, I'm thinking about it on Monday.
>> But if not.
>> No. Have you been holding oil like P'Ping? Has it already gone up? When it passed $100?
>> That's right, I don't know. It's a crossroads, Guitar. I really don't know. It's a crossroads.
>> I think there are negotiations, so I thought, "Should I sell the oil?"
>> Yes, but if it goes up, if it breaks through the level.
>> Yes.
>> Oh. [Sigh]
>> It's a time to.
>> Make decisions.
>> It's difficult, but if you're not sure, you don't have to bet, right? With oil.
>> Well, it's not meant for betting. It's meant to protect the portfolio right now, Guitar. Uh, if there's another way, take a small amount first. For example, if you want to go all in with 10%, I say, take 3% first, right?
>> It's still going up. Take another 3%. Take another 3%? Okay.
>> Okay, okay. Yes, P'Ping. Thank you everyone for following us all along. Our goal is to take this channel to 1 million subscribers to expand the society of learning in economics, business, and investment. We now have YouTube Membership. By subscribing, you will receive exclusive content and seminars from PR KP and the Business Tomorrow team. Please subscribe.