Transcription
Hello, it's Cryptoï. I hope you are doing well, that the bloodbath is over with the liquidation clusters we've experienced. It's interesting to observe the behavior we had yesterday regarding the price, and especially, we're going to ask ourselves how this beginning of the week will play out, and particularly what concretely happened with altcoins. Are there any important levels, and what conclusions can we draw from them? You'll see there's a lot because yes, we had a lot of liquidations, a lot of liquidations again and still now. This time on longs, another 351 million liquidated, 500 million dollars liquidated, and yes, there are still longs, yes, there is still liquidity. Yes, there are still people positioning themselves, and you'll see that it still hurts a lot and has implications for the medium and long term. I remind you that tonight, we have the masterclass at 8 PM on decentralized finance, and I will explain to you precisely how, in this crash, DeFi saved many people's backsides and how we were able to profit from it very happily. In any case, it doesn't seem to be stabilizing between China and the USA. Unfortunately, tensions are increasing. China has clearly stated that they do not want a trade war, but on the other hand, they absolutely do not want pressure from the USA. So, Trump will have to decide whether or not to cancel what he has planned. In any case, November 1st is far away. I remind you that he imposed a massive increase in tariffs on China on November 1st following their desire to control the export of rare earths, which is essential for the USA, and not only. We will also recall that the USA has a deal with Ukraine on the exploitation of Ukrainian rare earths, even if that hasn't happened yet. This led to a drop in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, a rather ugly close at 6500, which subsequently led to a drop in BTC, which then led to a general capitulation that we saw in altcoins due to an architectural problem. I made a video for you yesterday morning specifically to explain it. I'll put it at the end of this video, and I'll even put it in the top right corner, somewhere around here. Something is appearing. Look here if you want to understand exactly what happened and why we took such a hit here. That's not the subject of this video. The subject of this video is to ask what implications there will be at the beginning of this week and especially the implications for altcoins. Clearly, we are working on the 111,000 dollars, which isn't such a horrible level, and that 111,000 dollars is a rather important level because when we look at the CME, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which was closed precisely on Friday evening before the meltdown we experienced, mainly on the terrestrial market, we are at 116,000. 116,000 is very important. This implies that we will have a significant gap. This means that if we don't have a comeback here, it means we will have a monstrous CME gap, okay? It will be from 111 to 116. Worse, if we happen to sink before the CME opens, it means we will drop enormously. So, this mainly means that for me, we will tend to push towards Sunday evening, so tonight, or potentially Monday morning, at the beginning of the week, before potentially restructuring a short-term bearish trend that will be much less strong than what we've experienced. Why bearish? Because people are getting excited, and when we look at the price structure, we can clearly see the liquidation pattern, the rather classic structure of consolidation after a fall. Everyone is recovering from their emotions. It's a bit like the notion of a hangover. Afterwards, we're a bit listless, which is exactly what's happening. Perhaps an acceleration to go back up to 116, a rejection, and then a bearish acceleration. And that's a bit what we've experienced in moments of pure liquidation. We systematically have consolidation movements before having bearish continuations. And these are, for example, if we look at August 5th, things we've seen again here: liquidation movement, consolidation. Well, August 5th had a bullish acceleration then a bearish retest that was lower, and we maintained the low part, and I think we might not be far from something close to what we experienced on August 5th because August 5th was truly a failure of institutional hedging on the yen. I'll quickly remind you that the Japanese Bank announced on August 5th an increase in their key interest rate, the first in years and years, and many institutions had borrowed in yen to play on the Fed's key rates and thus pocket the difference between the two. So, naturally, when rates increased, everyone switched, a lot of selling, a lot of margin calls, resulting in enormous degradation and large liquidations in the traditional market. And we are experiencing it here in our own market with an infrastructure problem specific to crypto. So, we are more in a consolidation phase, perhaps with a re-acceleration at the beginning of the week, or rather the end of Sunday, beginning of Monday, and then a second phase of decline which I think will be less significant than the previous one. Then there's a discussion about which charts we want to look at. When we look at Binance spot or Coinbase spot, you'll see that we've maintained the lows here, and that even if we look at the weekly chart, we could say that we've maintained the lowest point, which was around 10708. We closed above it weekly, if there isn't a drastic drop happening now. Which would actually be the most positive thing we could have. But why am I talking about a continuation of the decline that would be less significant than the previous one? Less significant because there is less liquidity, there has been a psychological shock, and therefore people are less inclined to buy. Well, yes, in a manner of speaking, we may have cleaned everything out, but if you look at this wick that cleared all the liquidity, here we are on the liquidation clusters, we see that we have liquidation reconstruction at 108, at 107, at 105 which we liquidated, and especially we have a huge liquidation cluster that was very rare but has brutally recreated itself at 98,000, which is the bottom part here. Oops, if we zoom out, it's here, okay? Which is the critical zone that absolutely must not be broken, which is the trend reversal of this entire bullish acceleration. Okay? So, we have a lot of liquidations happening, and therefore new leverage, and therefore incentives to potentially purge this as we've seen, and thus have a second bearish trend, and that's exactly what we saw on August 5th. It's also exactly what we saw in the crash. Oops, let's put ourselves back in that crash. Okay. Crash, liquidation, fear, bullish reaction, second crash. This time we went a bit lower on BTC, then a slight reaction, then we moved on. If we look at August 5th, it's still a bit different, and I think it resembles August 5th more, where we had a bearish acceleration here, fear, etc., generalized failure, boom, we re-accelerate, we retest a low part, and we move on, which would be a bit of the scenario we could play out. But on altcoins, you'll see it's a bit different. With altcoins, there's a slightly different reflection that's visible compared to dominance. Clearly, BTC has reabsorbed a large part. We had a huge wick with 63%. I explained it here where we had a huge liquidity failure on altcoins with many market makers withdrawing. We look at the dominance of Total 3 compared to the total market. We see that dominance dropped to 15% then reabsorbed a large part. We're back to 20%, but that doesn't stop it from showing us that there was a huge failure, and this huge failure has certainly scared off many, many investors in many altcoins, and that's also visible in the dominances when we look at the total. We're back to almost 20% again. Okay, we've reabsorbed 80% and 75% of the candle. When we look at the dominance of all cryptos not in the top 10, which is Total 3, when we really remove the top 10 and thus remove the majors, well, we see that it's not the same thing at all. We've barely exceeded 50% in the vicinity of 60% in terms of recovery, and it goes even further. This means that the reflection we need to have is to say that altcoins, all altcoins outside the top 50 have suffered much more. Some were not on perpetual futures, so there was no problem there. But globally, it's all altcoins that were on perpetual futures, meaning leveraged, where liquidity was really lower. And so all of those took a monumental hit and are having a lot of trouble recovering. And some have recovered quite well. When we look at Total 3 overall, we see that we've returned to the support levels we had here around 1T in August 2025 before re-accelerating. I think this is an area that will be a major resistance to overcome. And when we look at altcoins, we'll see that unfortunately, each altcoin has its own impact. And here, I think we shouldn't generalize. We'll have to treat altcoin by altcoin, see the impact we can have. Some are having a lot of trouble recovering, and I think it will be long, and others have already reabsorbed a huge part. If we look at BNB weekly, for example, well, we see that BNB, yes, indeed, was at 1300, but it has reabsorbed its entire drop to 800 and is starting to turn positive, and we're ending the week positively. This is to show you how strong some are. Others have shown some strength, like Hyperliquid. We went very, very low. Here, on KuCoin, we're around 21 dollars. Some went much lower. We've reabsorbed a large part. We've gone back up to 41 dollars, but we're currently struggling at 37 dollars. I think the reflection will also be on the composition, the strength of the underlying protocol, its interest, and also its ability to generate revenue to potentially create demand, a certain buying demand. This is something we see with BNB. For BNB, I remind you that we have a lot of buybacks. Well, not to mention the fact that it's very likely manipulated with a lot of purchases, like FTX, like many exchange cryptos, don't forget that. And here, we have Aave, which is also a good example of a protocol that works well, has daily buybacks, and we see that indeed, we went below 100 dollars and reabsorbed, we quickly found ourselves at 230 dollars with consolidation above. I think for many altcoins, we won't go back to the lowest point. However, this also implies that we'll have to select altcoins carefully, that we've also had proof that all those that are purely speculative will have a lot of trouble recovering and will certainly have their own bear market. And that's where it's super important, because I think we have a shift in altcoins. It has been proven once again that having open interest in altcoins without necessarily having liquidity led to the disaster we experienced, particularly with many altcoins, and many cryptos will certainly no longer want futures simply because they've seen the impact it can have. And pure speculation will have to go through here, perhaps through interest, an application that really works, generates revenue, and in which we can have a return and a reinforcement of the buyback narrative, which is of strong interest, and I think that's where we should monitor the metrics and perhaps be most interested. Once again, altcoins have shown their limits due to the design of liquidity and the lack of liquidity in open interest and overexposure to leverage, mainly on altcoins and on exchanges that don't have the capacity to handle so many transactions. Clearly, it was a deluge. I wanted to understand what really happened in the architecture and why it broke. I'm re-sharing my video from yesterday morning to explain all the implications. In the meantime, I wish you a very good day, a very good Sunday, and we'll meet tomorrow morning for the daily. Stay safe, and especially, don't try to make up for your losses if you've had any. Very important, psychology above all. Stay as factual as possible. If you feel this urge, go for a walk, go discuss in discussion groups, whether it's Discord or elsewhere, and exchange, it's super important. Don't stay alone in these situations. This is an extraordinary event. It's a Black Swan, it's something that marks you for life. And above all, don't make the usual mistakes of trying to make up for it by increasing your risks. That's always the worst mistake. Don't forget before you leave, a little like, subscribe if you haven't already, and I'll see you very soon. Co?