Transcription
I confirm that it is a bubble ready to burst. Every day, when you play, if there is a real opportunity, I will bring it to you. You will have to leave quickly because right now I see a short-term opportunity for those who play the cycle. I won't adjust, but I see a real profit-taking opportunity. If anyone wants to profit, they can do so. I think it's worth buying because the bond market is still thinking the Fed will raise interest rates twice, once this year and once in the middle of next year. I think as time passes, something will happen that makes the market change its mind easily. They are liars, you know they can lie about everything, and this is the same. I said from the beginning that I didn't want interest rates to be 1%, and I figured out months ago that they just wanted to put their insider as Fed Chairman.
Today we have a special appointment, interviewing Khun Nat Mahachana, Assistant Managing Director of Investment Strategy at Krungthai Asset Management. It's been over a month since we last interviewed Khun Nat. Previously, Khun Nat was someone who constantly followed market movements, and he also invests himself. He is also an executive at Krungthai Asset Management. Today, let's talk to Khun Nat about this volatile market, selling AI stocks and then buying back in. There will also be advice on how to invest in AI stocks, recommending that they should be divided into parts: which ecosystems we should buy for the long term, which we should buy for the short term, or even other assets like gold and bonds, how interesting they are, and cryptocurrency. In fact, Khun Nat has been recommending investing in Chinese stocks for many years, and recently he has started recommending Thai stocks. I don't know if Khun Nat has changed his perspective or what portfolio we should have as a safe portfolio, and which one is for timing the market. Today, Khun Nat will give us advice. He is with us today. Hello, Khun Nat.
Hello, P'Naew. Yes, it's been a month since we last spoke, but this month there are many exciting things, especially from the end of last week until today. Even though the situation has improved, I can't not ask about AI. Khun Nat, many people are asking if this sell-off in tech stocks is a major correction, or if the bubble has burst, or if it's just a small leak. What are your thoughts, Khun Nat? And what do we observe to know if it's just a correction or a bubble burst?
I believe it is a bubble that is ready to burst. AI has been a bubble since the end of 2022, when ChatGPT was launched. Counting from 2023, 2024, 2025, and halfway through 2026, it's been three and a half years. The market cap has increased explosively. Meanwhile, if we have long-term investment experience and have seen many market cycles, we would be able to tell the atmosphere when a bubble is about to burst. It's like this. It's not possible to say when people say "this is just the beginning," "stock prices are still very cheap compared to growth opportunities," or "it will continue like this for another two years." When I hear "another two years," I get chills. I think when a bubble is about to burst, we hear things like this. It doesn't mean that every time we hear it, it will burst. It's very difficult to say when it will burst, but I have two conclusions: 1. It's ready to burst. The atmosphere is right, expectations are extreme. And if it's going to burst, something must happen for money to flow out in a flood. It means the dam here has broken, and there must be somewhere for it to go. At first, since the beginning of the year, I planned that it might be the US labor market. The US labor market might weaken, partly due to AI. And bond yields, if they rise to a point where people in the bond market see it as peaking, they will want to lock in bonds. And if the future situation has a risk of economic recession or inflation turning into deflation, the rush to buy bonds will be very strong because everyone wants to lock in high yields before yields plummet. A bond rally or a bond market turning into a downward trend or a bull market might cause this ready-to-burst bubble to burst, and money will have somewhere to go, into the bond market. But when the US labor market signals continued strength, and the Non-Farm Payrolls are higher than expected, even though the numbers look strange, unemployment is stable, Non-Farm Payrolls are higher than expected, but wages are not rising fast. And if we look at the components, it's mostly part-time employment. Full-time employment is low. It's like a structural issue, and it's also overlaid with data quality. We see that labor data is revised a lot each time. The reliability of the data is low. It's something we have to keep following. We have no choice but to use this data and follow it every early month, every first Friday of the month. But it hasn't come to the point where investors should start buying bonds. It's not yet. So, the bond market is not a place where money will flow if the bubble bursts. It's not yet.
Now, there's the issue of the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz creates a lot of uncertainty in the economy. Investors don't like uncertainty. Investors rush into what is certain. Notice when the AI tech stocks revived and rallied like crazy. It was from the point when Trump made a temporary ceasefire agreement with Iran, remember? It's a situation in the middle, between escalation, which is bombing energy facilities for days, and a complete peace. There's a middle situation, a ceasefire. This middle situation has uncertainty. It's not as severe as escalation, where bombs are dropped here and there. And there is uncertainty, which makes forecasting for other sectors or themes difficult. People grab what they think is certain, which is infrastructure investment, AI infrastructure investment. They have to invest. People with money invest. Money has intention, there is competition, it forces investment. So, they are looking for bottlenecks in the AI supply chain. It's a search for bottlenecks, which has been going on for months. Under the atmosphere where this war may or may not end, the Strait of Hormuz may or may not open or close completely. Therefore, if the situation continues like this, I think the AI bubble can continue. And if the situation flips to the left or to the right, suppose it flips to the side where everything is destroyed and the economy can't survive, and there's no oil to use, then the economy will recede. At that point, we might not talk about inflation, but we'll talk about the bond market again. If the economy is bad, interest rates can't rise, and US bonds will become safe havens again. In such a situation, we go to the bond market. But I don't think it will happen. I'll talk about this later, why it won't happen.
There's another situation: if it's not here, it must end. It must open. I learned a lesson from the reopening after COVID. Years ago, there was a theme of reopening after COVID. The stock market experienced a severe rotation, with work-from-home and lockdown stocks being sold off. They were sold off, and then rotated to buy stocks for reopening the economy. I think opening the Strait might be similar. The same old stocks, which are closing the Strait, like tech stocks, AI stocks, I don't know what to do. Consumption can't be relied on. It has to be investment. They are pouring into it. And with such a strong position, shouldn't it be sold off? Because there's a big theme waiting, which is the theme of opening the Strait. What was suppressed by the closing of the Strait? Which country? Which business group? Which theme? Therefore, consumption might be one of them. I'm focusing on consumption. If the Strait really opens, there should be a rotation and a sell-off of tech AI stocks. It's been three and a half years. The bubble should burst, but there must be somewhere for the money to go. The destination is the theme of opening the Strait. If it really opens, it will be like that. So, I've made plans. But I don't know when it will open. But right now, I've made plans.
Why did I open it? I just adjusted my portfolio. I was late for the show because I had to adjust my portfolio. I sent the portfolio. I adjusted the portfolio. Why am I so confident that the Strait will open? Yesterday was very challenging. I woke up on Monday morning, and why were they shooting? Last week, Trump said this week, next week, this week. This week should be reviewed. And actually, with the Israel-Iran situation, I had to grit my teeth and say the Strait will open. I'm betting on it. Even though Iran hasn't said anything, I have to bet that the Strait will open. Why? Because if they start fighting again, they will be cornered. They have to do it for survival. When they do it for survival, they do many things. And they have already gone too far. What they will do, I interpret it this way: they will destroy the civilization of that region, especially the UAE. Be careful. Right? UAE is the main player, right? Qatar too, but UAE is important. It's a financial center, a center for the wealthy. If they allow attacks again, and Iran attacks refineries or other facilities that allow people to live there, and the wealthy lose confidence, they can't live there. A financial center like this cannot continue. This is a great damage that cannot be undone. And the cost is too high to go back to war. Therefore, the sheikhs, the rich people with power in that region, will not allow it anymore. They don't want it. And there was news before that even Gaza might be willing to pay tens of billions of dollars to Iran to end this matter. Right? They have to go all out because losing the status of a regional financial center or a haven for the wealthy is lost forever, and nothing is left. The cost is too high. People there don't want it. People with power don't want war. They have to make a deal.
But why haven't they made a deal? Because Iran benefits from this. Iran has to drag it out. Because when they drag it out, will it end? Will it end? Will it end? Will it end? They keep saying Iran will end it, but they always change at the last minute because Iran doesn't want it to end. They want to drag it out until the peak demand for oil from the West, which is the peak season, from June to August. It's the peak of global oil consumption because it's summer in the Northern Hemisphere. June, this month, to August is the peak. Have you seen the numbers every week? Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the amount of petroleum reserves, has decreased by millions of barrels, millions of barrels per day. It's going down and will reach the tank bottom soon, in a few months. And it will coincide perfectly. I guess Iran's thinking is not difficult. Iran sees these two things converging. Tank bottom, right? The amount of oil reserves is decreasing, while demand is peaking during this period. So, they have to make a deal during this period, from June to August. They've dragged it out this far. It's close to a deal. I don't know where it will be. If it passes this point, it's no longer about negotiation power. Iran's negotiation power is highest during these three months, June to August, that's it. And the rich people there don't want war. Iran doesn't want it either. I always say Israel is a variable. When making a deal, don't forget Israel, right? Israel doesn't want it to end, right? Because their goal is regime change. But we have to admit that they haven't succeeded. When they call each other, they have to tell the truth, right? It's not successful. The crucial factor that will prevent the war from ending is if Israel finds a small loophole, a loophole they can exploit for a new assassination operation, which is not easy because the precautions are different from before. This is the only risk that the war might not end: Israel finds a loophole for a new assassination operation, which is very difficult, almost impossible. Therefore, if I have to eliminate possibilities, I will eliminate this possibility. This is a truly minor risk that Israel will orchestrate a new assassination operation, which is very difficult. I'll dismiss it. If this doesn't happen, it will end.
Yes. It depends on whether Iran has dragged it out this far and gets the best deal. When the Strait opens, I'm quite confident, so I'm going all in. The theme of opening the Strait, buy it now. There are luxury stocks, global brand stocks, etc., which have just gone through consumption that was very bad. Luxury brand stocks, bags, etc., have fallen heavily. There's a safety factor in buying them. Stocks like these are easy to understand. Normally, I wouldn't buy them, but at this price, there's a possibility they might recover. You have to buy luxury. And another group is Chinese stocks. Believe it or not, Chinese stocks, Hong Kong stocks. Hong Kong Chinese stocks. Hong Kong tech stocks are not AI tech stocks. They missed the AI train, right? Because Chinese AI players are in the supply chain of AI. See? But Hong Kong is not. It's consumer tech. Yes. Therefore, whether it's consumer tech, it's been stagnant for a long time, and it's also affected by cross-border issues, right? Yes. The Chinese authorities cracking down on illegal brokers, so-called illegal brokers. So, Hong Kong stocks have been hit hard and have fallen so much. If you're looking for cheap stocks right now, while the market has a bubble, there's also a big angle, which is Hong Kong stocks. You can buy them. And there's also a possibility. If consumption picks up, you can buy consumption stocks in many places around the world, expecting a recovery after the cycle, after the Strait opens. But if China, there's something else overlaid, which is not just expecting a recovery from the cycle of opening the Strait, but a structural recovery. Because China's 5-year and 10-year plans aim to increase the proportion of consumption. It's playing the biggest consumption theme at the cheapest price. Right now, if you're looking for something to buy, it's Hong Kong Chinese stocks.
Yes. Besides tech stocks, are there consumer stocks in Hong Kong? Or are they very stagnant right now? I believe that Chinese consumption hasn't been driven rapidly in further reforms because there is a lot of uncertainty. The war that has intervened. The war that has intervened. It should be a good thing, right? To have some agreement that reduces uncertainty significantly. But this war has intervened. The war ends. Then we can go back to: these two people have talked, and they can move forward. Consumption is in the 5-year and 10-year plans. It has to be done. But this kind of uncertainty intervenes. Uncertainty decreases. Reforms must move forward. And reforms are directly aimed at Chinese consumption. So, this is the best opportunity I see.
I'd like to ask Khun Nat a bit, because if we talk about tech stocks, they are concentrated in the US stock market, especially Nasdaq. These have started to rebound. AI stocks, or even AI infrastructure, have risen very quickly. They have rebounded, but not as much as before. Should we chase them? Should we chase the price as it rises?
Like this. Yesterday, I'll tell you what I did yesterday, Monday, the 8th. I advised entering for a technical rebound. Because there were Korean stocks yesterday. Yesterday, the 8th, I entered Korean stocks. Japanese stocks. Yes. Which are now tech plays. And Bitcoin, I still advised entering. Oh, still entering blockchain stocks, stocks related to Bitcoin. Blockchain stocks, I still advised entering. I advised entering four things. Yesterday, but not today. Because it's likely a technical rebound. I think entering yesterday was because it was oversold. It was a good buying opportunity. It's a technical rebound. How much will it rebound? You sell it yourself. Sell and run. Yes. So, it's a short-term buy. Buy and hold for a short time. Or especially the AI theme. Especially the AI theme. I believe it's a bubble ready to burst any day. When you play, if there's a real opportunity, I'll tell you to leave quickly. But if it's a long-term investment, I've moved on to the next theme. The theme that has been played for three and a half years. Opening the Strait. I wouldn't chase it. If you ask if I would chase it, no. But entering yesterday was to play the bounce, and you leave quickly. Oh. What to enter today? Today, I'm entering gold. I, who never buy. Oh, really? Khun Nat said gold will have a longพักขาย. It's not yet the time for me to enter. It's complicated like this. I will enter gold when I adjust my portfolio. Because I'm building a portfolio. I will enter gold when the Fed definitely raises interest rates. I see it clearly in the next two weeks. It's definitely going to raise interest rates. Not just expected, but 100% certain. Then I will enter gold again. Because it's a really big cycle. But before that, I think it will go down much more. But why enter today? Because right now, I see a short-term opportunity for those who play the cycle. I won't adjust, but I see a real profit-taking opportunity. Oh. If anyone wants to profit, they can do so. I think it's worth buying because the bond market is still thinking the Fed will raise interest rates twice, once at the end of this year and once in the middle of next year. I think as time passes, something will happen that makes the market change its mind easily. Change its mind that maybe they won't raise anymore. Or maybe they will reverse to lowering interest rates. For example, if the Strait opens. If the Strait opens, interest rates don't need to rise. Just this, expectations change. And you have to buy today because today people still think interest rates will rise twice. Yes. As time passes from yesterday, the bond market expects only one rate hike. At the beginning of the week, they thought there would be two rate hikes because there was shooting. Now there's only one rate hike expected. I still think that today, gold is worth buying. And wait for expectations to change. But you have to buy now. And wait for expectations to change. When they change, you sell it. Because this is not yet the big cycle. Ah, this is a small cycle. My own portfolio, I've adjusted it. Yes. It's worth playing. Yes.
So, Khun Nat, you said there might be an opportunity for a deeper correction. Some people are looking at 3,500, some at 3,800. US dollars? Yes. Let's see. If it rebounds, will it adjust again? I think the big cycle is not yet. It's not the beginning of the cycle. I think there will be a rebound first. Because right now, the market generally thinks interest rates will rise, which I disagree with. So, I see an opportunity here to enter gold now. And when the expectations change, if it happens as I think, as time passes and the market stops thinking interest rates will rise, then gold will recover. Then you sell it. Ah, it's still not a big cycle. Ah. So, why do you think people now think interest rates will rise? And you don't think they will? What's the reason?
There are two things. First, I am confident that the Strait will open soon. Therefore, the pressure, the inflation pressure, will disappear. Second, I don't believe the US labor market numbers. I don't believe them. I don't know what will happen. I see the US labor market. Right now, the perception is that the US labor market is still doing well. Yes. I don't know if it will fall or what will happen. But I just know that the numbers are very low, and the numbers are revised frequently, revised a lot, revised enormously, without a consistent trend. We've seen it for many rounds. The numbers are very low. So, if most people think the US economy, the US labor market, is still good, I would suspect it might not be good. Ah, that's it. Ah, that's it.
That's it, short and sweet. So, at the meeting on the 16th-17th, what do you think about the Fed's decision? The inflation numbers released were 3.3, 3.8, which is quite high. PCE also rose. And the economic numbers are strong. Both are strong. Looking at the trend, Khun Nat, can you read the Fed's mind? The Fed will be stable, right? They will be stable.
Yes. So, there is a lot of uncertainty. It depends on the economic numbers from here to there. What are the economic and inflation numbers? If the economic and inflation numbers look hot, and the Fed is stable, I assume the Fed will be stable. The Fed will be stable regardless of the strong economic numbers, because there is a lot of uncertainty. If the economic numbers are good and the Fed is stable, it enters a reflection. Bonds might be quite bad, and stocks might be quite good. But if the economic numbers are bad and the Fed is stable, I assume the Fed will be stable. But if the economic numbers are bad and the Fed is stable, it might be a case where stocks fall, and short-term bond yields rise slightly, while long-term yields might fall slightly. I assume the Fed will be stable because there is a lot of uncertainty. It depends on the investors' perspective on the economy. So, the variable is the economy, the economic numbers, and the shock events, the economic numbers. As for the Fed, it's not hard to guess, or it's not hard to guess. Because in the end, I've said before that in the end, Trump will step in because he will put his own person as Fed Chairman. I'm telling the truth. It's not that he wants to lower interest rates to 1%. He really doesn't want to lower interest rates to 1%. It's a lie. He's a liar, you know. He can lie about everything. And this is the same. I said from the beginning that Trump doesn't want interest rates to be 1%. And I figured out months ago that he just wants to put his insider as Fed Chairman. He'll have an insider for a long time. He'll be an insider because he's the son-in-law of a friend. Oh. He's someone he's pushed. He wants his person to be in charge, that's all. He doesn't care about interest rates. He can't do it. There are 12 governors, so he can't order it. From the moment the court ordered Lisa Cook to have independence, that's over. The matter of Trump ordering the Fed is over. The market knows that Trump cannot order the Fed. So, it's irrelevant. Economic numbers will be the measure. Why doesn't Trump want interest rates to be very low? Ah, he can't do it. He can't do it. He just talks. At that point, he conducted monetary policy himself. From the fourth quarter of last year until before the court ruling on Lisa Cook. That was when he seized the power of monetary policy. Because conducting monetary policy is not just going to a vote, but daily communication. So, Trump was a central banker from the fourth quarter of last year until the beginning of this year. That was the best time for gold. Yes. And there won't be another time. The best time for gold has passed. It was in the fourth quarter because Trump acted as a central banker himself. Daily communication. He seized daily communication. In the end, he knew he couldn't order interest rates. But that was to make people believe that interest rates would go down. Down beyond reality, right? Ah. Right? Down beyond reality. That was the peak. The peak. And after that, he wants to be an insider forever by putting his son-in-law or friend as a banker. That's it. He didn't do anything for America. He wants to be an insider. Finished. It's not America First. This is Family First. I can't judge that. Consider it yourself. I've deciphered this.
Let me say a little bit. Why can't they negotiate via Zoom? Why can't they negotiate online? When they go to negotiate, whether it's war or anything else, there is... Yes. Why do they have to talk face-to-face? Why do they have to fly halfway around the world to talk? It's so wasteful, right? Because there are things that others cannot hear. These people. Yes. For example, the war in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz, and its impact on oil. Oil went from about $50-60 to over $90 now, not quite $100. Khun Nat, do you think this will change the global inflation assumption? Will it not end with just opening the Strait of Hormuz and inflation going down, or will it change the global inflation assumption altogether? This means monetary policy, interest rates.
When people see that oil has a reasonable ceiling, the Ukraine war was around $120, right? Yes. Today's war is around $120. People see that there is a ceiling, and what actually happened is demand destruction. Yes. The fact that demand has decreased is real. Yes. There has been an adjustment that prevents oil from skyrocketing. And because of this, people now understand the behavior of oil prices. Therefore, it cannot be that there is no expectation of $200-300. That's it. And the components of inflation. Let's look beyond that. How will investment affect inflation? Investment affects electricity costs and everything else. People are worried now. It's one of the causes. But if investment retreats for some reason, data centers are delayed, scaled down, etc. This is a bigger issue than oil. This is something people don't know yet. They are investing, investing, investing. But if there's a retreat, the retreat might be due to reasons directly related to investment, or it might be due to interest rates. Suppose interest rates are seen as high. They will be high for some reason. Then the sources of investment will have to retreat themselves because they have to maintain stock prices. If interest rates are too high in the eyes of investors, and you still intend to spend capex, shareholders will punish you by announcing increased capex, and the stock will fall. CEOs will be under pressure to focus on cash flow. Stop investing for now? Postpone it? Use the money to pay back. Talk about share buybacks. And the stock will rise. CEOs get bonuses, right? Things like this can retreat. What's planned like this is within people's assumptions. For two years, it will be like this. Chip prices will continue to rise. When the commodity cycle ends, it's like this. All forecasts are always wrong. This is different. Chip prices will also fall. The claim that they will compete for everything will also fall. Expectations of inflation will also fall. This can happen when there are factors or movements that make people think, "Oh, the forecast was exaggerated." Inflation has fallen, and interest rates can change direction, interest rates can start to fall.
Yes. Khun Nat, what do you think of the current money flow? Let's say for fun. Because they have taken some profits from US tech stocks, and some countries like Japan, Korea, Taiwan. Money has come in, but not much. What do you think of the money flow? Before, it came in at the beginning of the year, then sold off, and now it seems to be returning, but not much yet. What is the direction?
I don't want to talk about this. Thank you very much. You reminded me of something else that might not have been mentioned. Right now, people think the US economy is strong, right? Labor is strong, and the Strait is not open. There is risk. The dollar seems to be strong, right? Yes. So, I think, when you talk about money flow, I think there's a possibility of the opposite. I've been a strong dollar advocate for a long time, right? It was successful. In terms of a strong dollar. If the Strait opens, right? Opening and closing. Closing makes the dollar stronger. Opening makes the dollar weaker. I can infer that. Closing makes the dollar weaker. Opening makes the dollar weaker. The dollar will be a force that weakens the dollar. But strong labor, low-quality data. If it flips to the other side, it might cause a round of dollar selling. Combined with what I said about entering gold now. Right? But where it comes from, I don't know. I don't want to enter now. I think to the point where I want to enter gold, like the dollar cycle, it might not change the cycle. I'm not sure, but there's a chance that from here, the dollar will weaken. It's possible. So, if you think the dollar will weaken, what can you buy? Gold might be the leader. It's possible. Yes. Right. Thai stocks. Because the dollar is weak, and it drives fund flows in a direction where the dollar is weak. It might be tactical. I don't dare say it will weaken again. I don't think so. There's a tactical round where the dollar will weaken. And you can think about where the fund flows will go. Are Thai stocks worth buying? Because Thai stocks have touched 1,600 recently. And Thai people are my favorite. Yes. Vietnam, I don't look at it. I don't want it. I prefer to go back. Go back to last September. There was orange and blue. I marked it there. I didn't wait for the election. That was accumulation. That was important accumulation. And the struggle is over. Yes. Yes. I interpreted from last September that Thai politics will be stable for a long time. Stable and silent. Power will not move anywhere. And from there, if there are catalysts like reforms, which there were before, when the government called the private sector and there would be legal reforms. Remember? In the headlines of foreign news agencies, "Reform." If people believe this reform, it will be real. 2,000 is not enough. Some say 5,000. I believe that. Reform is very big. I think of not even Korea, but India. India has legal reform, tax reform. Yes. Oh, it can make stocks rise so much. It's a structural improvement that makes it better, more efficient in tax collection. That's it. If Thailand truly implements legal reforms, if it becomes real. If investors believe it, they will buy first. And Thai stocks, you have to accept, you have to prepare yourself that they will be expensive. They will be more expensive before earnings come. GP hasn't come yet. Earnings haven't come yet. You have to buy them expensively first, and they can rise a lot if the reform is real in the minds of foreign investors. Stable politics allow it to happen. If you really push for reform, only reform. Then Thai stocks will break through 2,000. Therefore, Thai stocks are worth buying now. I dare to say it because I say that if politics is stable, you can put reforms on a stable foundation. If the foundation is not stable, you cannot reform. But reforms are possible when politics is stable. And I'm buying the possibility. It hasn't happened yet, but there are signs, like general legal reforms that foreigners are starting to play with. Yes. And Khun Nat, we don't have tech stocks, chip stocks, AI stocks like foreign countries, like South Korea, Japan. We only have Delta. So, which stock groups will drive the SET index to 2,000 points?
It's like taking turns. I think if that one makes it rise to this point, Thailand can take over. Because the rest are gone, right? Yes. It's the AI train that missed the train. People will turn to look. When AI is sold off, the first thing is that those who missed the AI train will rise immediately. Because they are not AI. People who missed AI will come here first. And then there are reforms. If the reforms are legal, see? What are Thailand's reform goals? Legal reform. Increase convenience for general business. And who are they talking to? CEOs. So, corporates will benefit first, right? Legal reforms. If they listen to what they say, they listen to CEOs, not households, right? So, households can wait. But corporates, all kinds of corporate stocks. Which group will they play with? That group. If it's general reforms, then general reforms can be played. It will be like a boom for stocks. Don't forget, why are investors willing to buy Thai stocks expensively? 1% interest rate. Low interest rate. Play low interest rate. Play like KT. In 5 years, it will be good. Stocks will soar. Ah, right? 500,000. You can play like that because interest rates were low then. Interest rates were close to zero, right? Now interest rates have risen to 4%. Is it cheap? Because at that time, I said in 5 years, Thailand is worth playing because interest rates were low. I said it myself. In 5 years, let's buy Thai stocks. I could say that because you can buy and wait. The opportunity cost is low because it's low. Thailand has all the components. Yes. Waiting to rise. Waiting to rise. The SET index is not very clear. It's possible. Maybe around 600. It should be late. General reforms. Legal reforms, right? If legal reforms are implemented, it will help solve bottlenecks. What kind of legal bottlenecks? I think Thailand has plenty. So, there will be a group. You can go and see what they will do first. It will rotate according to what is being reformed. The head will die. I can imagine it. Yes. It will take some time. Right now, Thai people are working hard. Khun Nat, the second half of the year. It's June now, so there's half a year left. How should we arrange our portfolio in the second half of the year? Is 60-40, as Khun Nat once told us, usable in all weather conditions?
No more. I just adjusted it. Wow, full of stocks. So, there will be Channel B. I still have it. This is a special position to benefit from the yuan. And for stocks, there are Chinese stocks that I've loaded up on in both markets. Ah.
I just bought H because H is an abbreviation. I bought China at the beginning of this month because, because China, as you know, is a consumer China, right? And Hong Kong China has fallen a lot. So China takes both markets. This can be entered. And there is Luxury. Luxury is stocks, stocks of Global Brands worldwide. Which benefits from the opening of the strait. And there is Green. There is Green, which will be the clean energy, clean energy that I think...
It was beaten down during the end of the week until this point at the beginning of this week because yields bounced. Yields bouncing, these don't like it. It's a project that is difficult to do. It requires lower interest rates. Therefore, if yields are soaring like this, besides buying bonds, buying clean energy stocks is also a way to bet against it. Betting against yields, investing in clean energy stocks is Green. And what else is there? There is Green, there is Luxury, there is China. Oh, Thai stocks too. Thai stocks are SET 50, fundamentally. Because I think it will be reforms. If it's truly broad-based, stocks will be broad-based.
So, generally, find an active fund. Bring back an active fund that is small. One that you trust, whose style you can follow, to cover the market completely. If mid-cap and small-cap stocks come, they might come. But mid-cap and small-cap stocks, cover them completely. That's all. It should be around this.
Uh-huh. What are you most afraid of right now? The risks in the second half of the year, so we can prepare to cope.
AI. Leading stocks right now. Because I'm quite committed to the open strait theme. Quite sure the game is like this. It's time. All things come to an end. Nothing lasts forever. Everything must end, right?
Uh-huh, yes. Because right now they say that oil reserves and everything else might only last until around June. June 30th. If it continues like this, everyone will be shocked.
Yes, right?
For me, it means there must be a deal within that time. The more chaotic it gets...
If people can choose, if people can decide, they should decide to make it not chaotic. I hope so.
Uh-huh. So, if we have the open hand theme, not the open hand, the open hormone theme, will it be like a landslide? Meaning, will stocks jump up like, wow, incredibly?
Uh-huh. I think if there's a sell-off and a real AI sell-off, there's a lot of money.
Yes.
Like a dam bursting. I think it has to be strong.
And on the other side, there are the stocks that are falling, as I feared. Their prices are very low.
Right? They can support it. It's something like...
When a crash happens, the strength depends on how concentrated it is in the old places. And how long the new ones can support it, how long the runway is. I think both components are there.
Okay, but it won't last long either, right? A dam burst, it's just for a moment, then you might be able to make profits again. It sounds like you can't play any theme for long, right?
Uh-huh. It depends on this. As time passes, the assumptions people made, that you have to invest this much, are heard by the ears. If it's not true, and they adjust the forecast, and it deviates significantly from the original, like you only have to invest this much, or there's something that's an obstacle that makes it not as fast as you thought. It's much slower than before.
For example, I'll give you a simple one. Z. Right? It was adjusted many times until it became a target that, oh, it has to be postponed again and again.
The bigger AI is, the bigger it is.
And will the forecasts be correct?
But I ask this question.
And investing every day, if the forecast is wrong, is investing every day too much or too little? I think it must be too much.
Because no one gives up on anyone.
Right? So over-investing, over-investing too much. I think if you bet that investing every day, it's probably forecasted too much. I think the chance of being right is more than being wrong.
Yes. I don't know if we understand correctly. So, for speculation, there are stocks, all the tech stocks, that can be speculated on in waves. And gold, right? But if it's a shelter for a bit longer, it will be Chinese stocks and Thai stocks. Do we understand correctly?
Yes. And gold, playing rounds, based on expectations changing from interest rates rising to falling, right? But for tech, AI, or Bitcoin, or Korea, or something like that, I see it as shorter term. It's just a technical rebound, not a wave. A technical rebound is like, you sell today what you bought yesterday, you sell today or sell this week, something like that. You have to be that fast. If it's the old theme, I'm very careful. Okay, so divide the portfolio as Khun Nattha recommended. Which one do you feel like you want to be impatient? Divide it to catch the investment timing in the assets that Khun Nattha mentioned. And another group, you can gradually accumulate. Wait to receive, which Khun Nattha said you don't wait to buy, you don't chase. It's buying and waiting, but you have to have eagle eyes. Like Khun Nattha, like this. So today, thank you very much, Khun Nattha, for joining us. Because right now, the market is like, wow, it's chaotic. I don't know what to do. Should I buy tech stocks that are going down? It's a global trend. Or should we keep our money first? When it goes down again. We believe this clip will be a guideline for many investors. But your money, make sure to decide carefully. Thank you very much, Khun Nattha. Today, for joining us on Chat. Thank you. Goodbye.
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