Transcription
Oh yes, it is time to unveil our favorite wide receiver sleepers for the season. A bit of a twist this year. Yes, we are including your home league drafts in this conversation. So, here are the parameters. Okay, each of these names has to be pick 120 or later. That's the end of the 10th round either on Underdog or on Yahoo and even sometimes both because we want to include everyone here. Hayden, kick us off. Who's your favorite wide receiver sleeper this season?
>> I got Rasheed Shahed from the Seahawks this off-season. He signs a $51 million deal. Three years, a lot of guaranteed money. It was actually even more money than Kenneth Walker uh signed with the Chiefs. So, the Seahawks told us with their own dollars that Rasheed Shahed is more valuable than Kenneth Walker. I'm paying attention. Remember, they also traded a third-round pick. Did not have a great season uh on the Seahawks in terms of his receiving work. But if you go back to the Saints days, he had a 15-game stretch from 2024 to 2025. In those 15 games, he had uh 57 yards per game. He was the wide receiver 38 and wide receiver 30 usage. That was with Spencer Rattler and the injured version of Derek Carr as the quarterback. So, I think on a baseline level when he's being drafted as wide receiver 57 right now, I think that there's like a baseline projection uh positive uh case for him. And then you obviously have the contingent value if something ever happens to JSN who just had like a ridiculous like 35% target share. I think that can drop down a little bit. They get Shahed more involved. I wouldn't expect Cooper Kupp to be all that involved, especially if something happened to JSN. And then we also got ESPN's Jeremy Fowler just a couple days ago saying that Shahed had a major spring. He and Sam Darnold are hitting it off, which makes sense just based off how those two skill sets overlap. They're going to give him more short and intermediate stuff. He's going to be a big-time player.
I think that that last part there, the short intermediate stuff, he hasn't done that a whole lot in the pros. >> Yep. >> Just watching him. And Josh, you probably agree with me. He's got that that start-stop ability where I do think in the right offense, if you do sprinkle in some of that stuff, I do think there's more value in that. So, I'm hoping that we're not just going to have this, you know, huge downfield role for him. I think that will pay off in baseball, but I do think there's a pathway by-week wide receiver four, wide receiver three where you can throw him into your starting lineup. If he gets a couple more screens, couple little shallow crosses and runs after the win. Uh, I think there's a chance here. He's one of my favorite picks of the year, too. He's the fifth pick of the 12th round on Underdog and then one pick later over on Yahoo. So, the same exact spot in both drafts at this very moment. I think there was some frustration last year because he and Clint Kubiak had a history in New Orleans when that offense with a Lav uh was one of the best in the league for the first three or four years uh of that partnership. And then when he goes to New Orleans, you think to yourself, "Oh, he knows the offense. He's just going to immediately be inputted into the team." And that just wasn't the case. Obviously, the special teams impact was massive and you could argue that was played a major part just getting them one of the top overall seeds in the playoffs and then obviously getting a Super Bowl ring at the end of it. But the receiver production, you know, since joining Seattle was extremely minimal. I mean, 15 of 26 targets he caught in the regular season for just 188 yards since joining the Seahawks. Obviously in the playoffs he had three catches for 78 yards, but he went from being targeted on 22% of his routes in New Orleans down to 14% this last year.
So let me ask you this, right? Seattle last year was 30th in 11 personnel, three wide receiver sets across the league at just 42%. So on this team, this is one of the true cases where all we care about is two wide receiver sets. You have to assume with this nomination and just overall with his talent >> that he is going to take over for Cooper Kupp. Do you think that's going to be in week one or do you think that's going to be in week four, week five?
>> I think that happened when they gave him $51 million. You know, Cooper Kupp didn't do a whole lot. He was fine enough on his targets, was not getting it home uh necessarily. Now he's 33 years old. So I think just the the financial investment they could have resigned Kenneth Walker who the Super Bowl MVP. They said no thank you. We'll figure that out later. We need Rasheed Shahed. Uh, and I think there's a reason for that. Him and Sam Darnold downfield is going to work out. I really do hope that if something ever happened to JSN, I think that Shahed can be uh show showcase more of a a underneath uh weaponry than he currently has. My my other last note here, uh I looked at the wide receiver two or the tight end two, whoever's the second in the depth chart in ADP uh on their teams and only the Dolphins, Raiders, and Commanders have a player in that wide receiver/tightend two category that's lower than Rasheed Shahed. Remember the Seahawks just were second in scoring and 10th in passing yards. Yet their number two pass catcher in the depth chart is one of the latest picks in fantasy. To obviously JSN being so dominant explains some of that. I think there's a big part of that's unexplained and that's just because it's a bad ADP. So I think that he should be up a couple rounds from here. He's going to be very inconsistent if JSN stays the same. But if JSN does go down, I think that he's going to be uh an every-week starter and I do think that he's going to be way more in the mix this year than he was last year.
>> I love that. Seattle projected for the ninth most points in the league this season. Uh that's exactly the type of offense we want to target. And yeah, I've got a need I've got a need for Shahed. He is just a much better pure individual wide receiver talent than I think give him credit for. And it makes sense that he couldn't crack the rotation when Cooper Kupp was healthy because they won the freaking Super Bowl, you know, like why change all this stuff and we know the impact that he brought. So, this is like the perfect time, the perfect off-season for him to go out there and and command those two wide receiver set situations.
Okay, my next name is Matthew Golden. And look, I didn't rank the Packer second-year wide receiver as the best wide receiver in his draft class coming into the league like others did. In fact, I actually might be slightly less optimistic than others about his individual ceiling in the NFL just because I didn't see a whole bunch of pop after the catch outside of a couple catches and then, you know, he's more of like an on-the-ground player versus going up and getting it for his quarterback. But even with that said, I am drafting Matthew Golden in the 10th round on Underdog and then on Yahoo, he's going in the 15th round way more than I'm just passing up on him because I think this type of player and this type of offense that's projected for the eighth most points in the league is exactly like a value-rich situation that we should all be taking advantage of during the summers. I mean, look, all we have to do is now look at this wide receiver room that in the past has given us headaches, but now we move on from the Dante Van Winks and whoever else you want to throw out there, the Romeo Dobs of the world, and it's a "we believe" strict three-receiver set personnel in a team that used a lot of 11. Now, when they go to 12, we already saw that Matthew Golden played 72 snaps in one or two receiver set situations compared to his counterpart in Jaden Reed, who has only run a pass route on eight plays in one or two wide receiver sets. So no matter the personnel grouping and even if some people can argue good people on both sides what his actual ceiling is as a player, I still think like we want to find undervalued investments on really good teams and really good passing situations. And I think Jordan Love can really accentuate the strengths of someone like Matthew Golden in the league.
>> Yeah, I mean the routes are going to come way up. He played about 50% of the Packer snaps as a rookie. That's going to be closer to 100% maybe. Let's call it 85% this year on a per-route basis. 1.44 yards per route. Nothing crazy. 16 targets per route. Nothing too crazy, but for a rookie that's like at least passable on a per-route basis. And the explosiveness is pretty evident on his tape. Uh in my opinion, uh they nearly came up down with a couple really long touchdowns that were just for whatever reason were not connected with. And I do think that Laflur kind of simplified uh Matthew Golden's role as a rookie where it was a lot of the same type of route over and over again. I think that he can do more than that. Uh I don't know that for sure. I think there's a pathway for him to do more than that. And if we do get that, then I think you're going to see his like week-to-week consistency kick back up. They draft him the 23rd overall pick. Like they they did not have to get rid of uh Dantavian Wixs. They could have resigned Romeo Dobs to some degree. That is them saying internally, we feel good about Matthew Golden who was an inexperienced young early declare coming into the league. We should expect this type of player in round one to develop over the next couple seasons here. So, I do think he's a perfect sleeper. Uh I think that on a baseline case he's being drafted where he is. And if he does turn out to be, hey, guess what? That's a first-round wide receiver right there. Uh all of a sudden, this could be a huge win. And look, when he was drafted in the first round, I thought there was a pathway for him to prove that he was, you know, the best wide receiver on the Packers, and that was also, you know, a time when Christian Watson was coming back from a significant injury.
>> Yes, I don't think that's the case now. I think Christian Watson has developed into that good of a player that Golden's going to be more of a complimentary piece, but again, like that is totally fine here. Like a complimentary piece on a really good offense can give you some extremely valuable spots, especially for a player that when we talk through his profile, started the University of Houston, was above average, was fine, and then went to Texas and really developed and really improved in a lot of areas. And I think the improvement for him last year was impossible to have based on the injuries that he had mid-season in the shoulder and wrist issues. And so if we get a healthy off-season here, if we get more development and again a tighter, more lean wide receiver room, then Matthew Golden, it's on him if he's going to fail, right? He's going to have the opportunity to go out there and and show that he should be a true starter for this team. And I think at the very least, he's good enough for that.
All right, next up, >> I got Xavier Worthy. And I will fully admit, not the best day to be uh pumping Xavier Worthy bags after whatever we're calling that video of him running in the fields. First of all, I'm not even convinced that is Xavier Worthy. I will fully retract this if that was Xavier Worthy. If he was running, >> he did repost it. So, either this is the best long con and uh you know, great self-owned that we have seen or Xavier Worthy is uh you know, smarter than all of us here. >> Yeah. So, I I cannot explain this. I'm just hoping that whatever I was watching that was fake news. If that is fake news, I do think we're in for a bounce-back season. Last year was a disaster. I'm not going to say that it wasn't a disaster. I think we can potentially contextualize this. And I'll go uh use Andy Reid here. Remember, he had the dislocated shoulder in week one because Travis Kelce ran right into him. Then he had two different ankle injuries week five one and then another setback in week 13. And maybe he was just, you know, training his ankles in like that six-inch uh blades of grass in that park with the holes in it. Maybe he's just trying to develop his ankles. But if he's healthier now, I think they're going to use him differently. And Andy Reid had a a really interesting uh comment. He said, >> "I would tell you that we kind of after that were afraid to do certain things with Worthy. So, I think him coming back healthy, I think that opens up the whole picture you saw during training camp, this last year's training camp where he had a whole bunch of different routes. Uh what I think that means is some more screens. His screen rate, he had like one and a half screens per game uh two seasons ago. That dropped to only a half screen this last game. His average depth of target was uh at 8.9 two years ago. Last year was at 12.9 only a vertical role in the offense. And then he specifically mentioned crossing routes where when he had his big shoulder injury, they couldn't send him on crossing routes because you're going to get hit there and they couldn't afford him to have a setback. So, they took that off the menu in theory. I mean, that is a fantastic route for Xavier Worthy to be good at, and that's what he did two seasons ago when he was uh the wide receiver 27 in full PPR. So, last year was a disaster. I'm just betting on him being healthier. And I'm also just factoring in the downside case of Travis Kelce when he's what, 37 years old, getting married to Taylor Swift. And you know, Rashee Rice, the the de facto wide receiver one, was just in jail trying to rehab a a knee injury that's been bothering him for a long time here. So, just give me Kansas City's number two wide receiver. We'll figure out the rest later. I'm not even convinced that Xavier is really good at football. But in theory, just like we had with Matthew Golden, this is a first-round player where the Chiefs have a lot a lot of hope for him and there's really not that much target competition around him.
>> I've been really underwhelmed by Xavier Worthy since he's been in the NFL. Uh not that he, you know, doesn't flash speed in certain situations and there are obvious moments where Andy Reid uses him effectively, but as like a down-to-down wide receiver, I think he shows that just because you're the fastest receiver out there doesn't mean you're the best vertical player out there. Uh I mean, the numbers back this up. He caught four of 16 targets 20-plus yards down the field last season. Uh during his rookie year he caught seven of 21 20-plus yards on the field and then just four of 13 in their intermediate section of the field. Part of me believes like cornerbacks just play through his body really easily and that makes sense, you know, with his weight and with his size. And then at the line of scrimmage, physical corners don't allow him to play fast. They they force him to play at at his speed. And I am a little bit nervous that this is just who he is. And unless Patrick Mahomes can have like this mind-meld perfect downfield ability, then this is all reliant on Kenneth Walker like changing how defenses are forcing the Chiefs offense to play which maybe this is >> maybe this is a you know Kenneth Walker point disguised as a Xavier Worthy point where the Chiefs have said okay we've had success rate runs we've had effective runs but we are still getting these shells over the top and we haven't you know been successful downfield passing K9's going to change that and if they change that then we don't have to only rely on the underneath yak stuff Travis Kelce and we can get the Xavier Worthy and even Tyquan Thornton who was the best downfield receiver for this team last year get going.
>> Yeah, I mean in theory Kenneth Walker and Xavier Worthy are correlated picks together just based off the whole kind of thing moving forward. Mahomes stays healthy and then like you said just the way that Xavier Worthy is being covered down the football field and then for whatever reason the last two years >> Patrick Mahomes catch rate on downfield passes is like really bad. Like it's just the catchable ball rate. So like obviously some of those incompletions are Xavier Worthy's uh fault and I agree that sometimes playing through contact has been a struggle but like the ball has also sprayed on Mahomes the last couple years. I'm not sure that you know a torn ACL is going to be perfect for that this year but in theory like Patrick Mahomes could go back to where he wasn't missing for like what three four years in a row and that would be really nice because there's plenty of times where Xavier Worthy would like catch the ball out of bounds. I was like well there goes my ADOT touchdown that I was banking on. Uh but at the same time, Xavier Worthy was just not himself last year. Like coming out of his breaks, like it was just >> his shoulder got destroyed on like the first contact he had in the entire season running into Travis Kelce.
>> Yeah. I mean, just completely annihilated. And by the way, that does happen when you're a buck 40, uh those are the risks that you take. I just think that in general, if something happens to Rashee uh Rashee Rice in the next couple months here, >> he would be way way mispriced and it's hard to trust the other guys in this offense.
>> Yeah. Again, we we just posted a video talking about Kenneth Walker and why you and I are both in. On some level, there are opposites in their skill sets, even if you know, both are zero to nine-yard pass catchers over the last few years, but like you know, this team is really built at wide receiver with linear skill sets in Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy and Tyquan Thornton and and that's about it. Uh you mentioned 80-yard touchdowns. Here's a stat for you from Reid. Uh Xavier Worthy just three games of reaching 80 yards receiving over 34 appearances uh in his career so far. >> Not great. Hey, we used to call this the third-year breakout. We don't we don't have the patience for that, but I mean this is when we used to call it.
>> I'm going to pick a name who moved in free agency and this off-season and I think shocked a lot of people based on the contract that he was given, but not this show because we brought up in our free agency episode. That's Jaylen Naylor now of the Las Vegas Raiders. By the way, Xavier Worthy uh was going, I believe, in the eighth round over on Underdog, but is the seventh pick of the 12th round on Yahoo. So, that totally lines up with our uh rubric here. But on Jaylen Naylor, 13th round on Underdog, undrafted over on Yahoo. And I'm going to package this a little bit with what, you know, Clint Kubiak did in Seattle versus now what the Las Vegas Raiders have with their passing attack. I mean, JSN led the NFL in share of team targets at 36%. And then share of air yards across league of the passing attack at 50%. As much as I love Brock Bowers, as much as I think Brock Bowers is an awesome selection in fantasy football, and tell me if you disagree, I don't think he's going to hit those two numbers this year. In terms of 36% and 50% of targets and air yards for his team. And so we are constantly when we do this searching for and asking who are the top two pass catchers on any given offense because that's the stable, you know, predictions that we can give on each week. Jaylen Naylor is that for me and it's unquestioned with the Raiders attached to Brock Bowers. And I think if you all spent a little bit of time and went back and watched what he did with the Vikings last year, he was a very consistent piece of that passing attack. Back. I mean, there's one play against the Atlanta Falcons. It's a third and six. There's trips to the right on a condensed split, two inside routes, and then he is kind of the outside breaker on a little bit of a wheel action at the line of scrimmage. The corner is always working from behind, but again, his cuts create even bigger separation and a bigger gap. Then he elevates straight up while working to the sideline for a 14-yard gain. Again, I think there's a lot of overlap here between what he did with KOC and what Clint Kubiak asks. I talked about the condensed splits. Their stacks, he's breaking routes, he catches passes off frame. And you know, while there's some questions in some other productive players that have been, you know, in previous seasons on this Raiders roster, to me, it's Brock Bowers. And then a gigantic jump all the way down to round 13 for the next guy on the Raiders, Kirk Cousins, Fernando Mendoza, and that is Jaylen Naylor here.
>> Yeah, I mean the Dolphins, the Commanders, the Raiders, I mentioned Rasheed Shahed. I mean, these are teams where the second pass catcher is not drafted until we're nearly in the 150s. So, only Malik Washington's the second pass catcher on the Dolphins. Uh, he's the only one that gets drafted later as a team's second pass catcher. It's Jaylen Naylor. Now, interesting with Naylor. Trey Tucker is the next wide receiver. So, it's Trey Tucker versus uh Jaylen Naylor. That's the toss-up. Who's going to be I would go with Jaylen Naylor. Like the coaching staff like went out of their way to to bring back or to to sign Jaylen Naylor. Also like the uh there's more upside if like something dramatically has changed. So we talk about young players. So like there's learning, you're changing teams, you're changing coordinators. That's where I think there's some like an easier path to hit uh upside. And I do think with Naylor in particular like >> he's been like up against Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison his entire career. Like that's that's tough competition. And to your point KC vertical-based offense and that's what exactly what Kubiak brings. So there is some sense of familiarity. So I would be on team Jaylen Naylor over Trey Tucker. I think this is a great selection here.
>> Yeah, I mean look, the Vikings made a move for Adam Thielen last training camp who, you know, should have had plenty of overlap with that Viking staff and that organization and Jaylen Naylor just effectively kept him on the bench and got him cut by the end of the season. And I understand if Naylor's not the biggest name. He had 12 catches during the first two years of his career. But again, when watching him as an individual talent, there's a lot of stuff to like these breaking routes outside, inside, and just playing off his frame. He can work as an inside or outside pass catcher on top of it. And he can kind of be the movement piece other than Brock Bowers. And I think the two are going to be used in unison a lot on the same side of the field, too. And that'll be the primary uh, you know, direction that Kirk Cousins and Fernando Mendoza look into. So, I I I'm really drafting. I think part of the reason why we incorporated home league ADPs into this is because round 10 and beyond over on Underdog this year is a bit of a minefield or let's say the vast majority is a wasteland. Uh Jaylen Naylor is one of those names that constantly stands out to me once you get to round 13, round 14.
>> Yeah, I think deep leagues full PPR. I think that Naylor could get in the mix. There's obviously like some semblance of a lack of a ceiling with Jaylen Naylor, but like I think odds of like just straight up beating out this this ADP even if you're not going to win your league, I think are pretty high with him.
Okay, we got two more names. Who's your last one?
>> Case Keenum. He's probably the most fun player that we've talked about just because we're finally getting to a rookie. A rookie that you and I absolutely loved watching his tape. I thought that he was Z. Flowers plus. It's uh not uh too surprising that Todd Monkin really likes Case Keenum. He's compared Case Keenum to Z. Flowers, who he's obviously just was coaching uh for the last couple years in camp. Uh not training camp and the other parts of camp here. Uh ESPN's reporter on the Browns has said that they're getting Case Keenum the ball on deep targets underneath stuff and even as a rusher. Not a surprise because he was exactly that in college. His special teams tape was beyond electric. I thought he played bigger than his frame and that's where actually like Keenum's uh college tape even more than Z. Flowers college tape. So there's a huge ceiling to chase here. He's the first wide receiver that goes in ADP on the Browns, but that doesn't happen until we get till the late parts of the 10th round. There's a pathway for I would say by Halloween, that's when we really start getting excited about Case Keenum. And I'm assuming Jerry Judy's going to be hard to overtake in week one, but I think that he could be a full-time player. I do think he'd be a manufactured touch player in ways that Jerry Judy can't do because he's I think he's just more physical. And if he does hit this upset we're talking about, like I thought there was like a little Stefon Diggs to this. So, it's the damn Browns. It's not going to be pretty out there, but I think as the season progresses, hopefully we can come on stats versus film in the middle of the week and show you guys some clips on Case Keenum.
So, he's going in the 10th round over on Underdog, but in your home leagues on Yahoo, 15th round right now. And in fact, Denzel Boston's being selected two spots ahead of Case Keenum right now, which if I can kind of reverse engineer that mindset like Jerry Judy, the veteran presence to open the year. Denzel Boston, bigger body, maybe some believe that his game can translate easier from college. Obviously, Todd Monkin has already talked about how Denzel Boston's going to be a red zone threat for them. They didn't really have his body type, which I I really like Denzel Boston, so I I can totally see that. But Case Keenum is just an awesome talent. I mean, I can maybe see a slow start with this one. Maybe some of that's his fault. A lot of it's probably the quarterback situation fault, and maybe that lends itself to an entire season of a slow start. But this is someone who we know he has speed. We know he separates on legit routes. We know he has strength after the catch, too. And he is the player to me that Todd Monkin wants to build this passing attack around for the long term. And so, we're going to have some down weeks. That's what happens when, you know, we talk about the Raiders and we talk about the Browns where both are bottom five in projected points this season. But if there are certain games that we get average quarterback play out of, then that's really going to benefit someone like Case Keenum, who is just, I think, an unbelievable talent at the wide receiver spot.
Unfortunately, the baseline case, like the Browns are too bad, and even if we like him, is just not going to be enough to get it going in fantasy. But I just thought that his ceiling as a receiver and as a prospect was so obvious to me that like he's perfect for this episode that like in 25% of outcomes, he's just so obviously the Browns' best wide receiver and most teams at least have one wide receiver at least in the mix.
>> Yeah. And just keep in mind by weeks typically that's happened when you know wide receivers and rookies have a much better post-by-week and then you know this can also be a player seven or six final weeks of the season, final games of the season. That's when they really blast off. It will be better I think under Todd Monkin than it was last year for Browns wide receivers. Uh the entire wide receiver room in Cleveland. So, six of them averaged as a total seven receptions for 86 yards per game last year.
>> That's worse than George Pickens.
>> Yeah, I know. Like we're like literally hoping that Deshaun Watson is like just like better than what they had last year and like we've watched Deshaun Watson the last couple years has not been pretty.
Okay, I've got one more and that's I believe quite possibly the most underrated wide receiver in the NFL.
>> Whoa.
>> And his name is Ryan Flournoy.
>> Wow.
>> Of the Dallas Cowboys. Yes. Hit up your Google machine. He's a 14th-round pick on Underdog. Obviously undrafted on Yahoo. He's on the Dallas Cowboys. Four games last year. CeeDee Lamb was either out or played less than 50% of snaps due to injury. And two of those, Ryan Flournoy finished as the wide receiver 13 and the wide receiver six overall that week. Six catches, 114 yards, then nine of 13 targets for 115 yards and a touchdown. Look, in a normal game with all three wide receivers healthy, he will play anywhere from 45 to 70% of snaps. We know the Cowboys love to utilize three wide receiver sets. So he's not, you know, at the base value a complete zero with no standalone value here. But when one of those names misses, either CeeDee Lamb or George Pickens, and maybe that's even for a long stretch, watch out for Ryan Flournoy because he has earned a role in the top three of this Cowboys wide receiver room. I mean, he is a nightmare to cover out of the slot with his two-way goes. Uh he's so good with his feel for zone. He instantly gets upfield after the catch. Obviously, the slot is his best friend, but I don't think he's slot-only. I think he can do a a decent number on the outside as well. So, this is a team that's projected in the top six in points. Uh they have really recycled that third wide receiver in your Jaylen Tolbert to whoever else we want to throw out there too. But Ryan Flournoy is a name that if he ever does hit free agency, I think is going to get paid a heck of a lot of money and really surprised me when he got major run in those four games because I saw a legit NFL wide receiver.
>> I think it's the same way. I think that he's just a really good football player. He's going to be in three wide receiver sets and the second one of those two wide receivers misses time, he's going to be the uh thumbnail for the waiver wire column. And you know, that just that's just how it goes. He's also interesting because when somebody that goes to Central Missouri, Iowa Western, and Southeast Missouri State could get drafted, there's something going on there. And then when that player can get drafted in the sixth round and then sneak onto the starting lineup, to me, there's just like more potential in like that kind of uh archetype of player where he had to overcome. I mean, just schools that you don't even know that there's a direction attached to that school name. Uh they're all of a sudden mattering that that's on my radar here. He's also 6' 202, 4.44 in the 40-yard dash. There's no like physical limitations. He had a 40-inch uh vertical jump as well. So, he's just like continued to just outkick his previous uh job. And I do think that his tape it's like hard to ignore. It's hard for like a team's third uh wide receiver to matter in fantasy. It has happened before like the Tyler Boyd years. Uh you have to pretty much have like MVP-level quarterback play. Dak Prescott has done that before and I like the coaching staff, everyone in the offensive line returns, yada yada yada. So, of all the teams wide receiver threes, he at least has a chance to get there. But the the big thing here is like the contingent value is very real. So, in baseball, I like him. Deep leagues like him as a stash and like the second one of those guys misses time like Flournoy's going to get legit. We talked about this last year with Ryan Heath, uh, that a great predictor of breakout seasons is the previous uh first downs per route run. And Ryan Flournoy, if you know, minimize the routes down to about 240 as the baseline here. Uh, he actually had 274. He was top 13 last year. Wow. In first downs per route run. And it shows up when you watch, man. I mean, he is a legit talent out there. Uh, and I just hope they're able to showcase that a little bit more. That's for sure.
Okay, one more name I just quickly wanted to bring up, and we talked about him at length on the EP last episode, so go and watch that if you want a much longer conversation. Quinton Johnston on Yahoo right now, is going so damn late, it's actually egregious. 148 overall, that's the fourth pick of the 13th round. Hayden, that one caught my eye significantly because, you know, this is a player who finished the wide receiver 22 in points per game. Even on Underdog now is going as the wide receiver 38, but you and I believe that as much as we'd love Lad Makanki, that this team is probably going to be able to support two wide receivers. And QJ's fit with Mike McDaniel, while he has flaws, is going to accentuate his strengths. And uh this is someone who should not be anywhere close to being on the board in the 13th round.
>> Yep. I mean, if this is where the Yahoo uh ADP is, then like he's everybody is gonna be drafting him that watches our show. It's like that obvious. I will also say Matthew Golden, Xavier Worthy, like the Quinton Johnston pass that we talked about where it was not pretty and then all of a sudden the team environment is so good. You make a couple improvements and you catch a couple long passes and then all of a sudden you got like a top 30 wide receiver season. Like I think that he's a good example of zoom out for a second, especially when the ADPs are this low on some of these young players with speed with like a firm pathway to routes and maybe they just get better all of a sudden because they're they're young.
>> Obviously QJ his situation early in his career uh vaulted him to make even more mistakes and accentuate his flaws with the Worthies and especially Matthew Golden. The early career injuries might have done that a little bit too.
All right, that does it. As you can tell, it's sleepers week. We're gonna have tight ends and quarterbacks and close out this week with running back sleepers. So, lock in the channel, hit subscribe. We've got some great names coming at you over the next few days. We'll see you the next one.