Transcription
We have a brand new S tier where we used to have three running backs in it. It used to be Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, and Bejan Robinson, but now we have had Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey really separate themselves.
In reality, you could also come through and say, well, Jonathan Taylor is a completely different tier in his own right where he is currently sitting here averaging 27 and a half points per game. He's coming off a game against the Atlanta Falcons where he just dropped 50. And I am terrified in my own league because S has both McCaffrey and Jonathan the Taylor on the same team. It just seems impossible to go up against knowing that these two running backs are going to combine for 50 points every single week.
It's funny. I live-streamed our weekly recap on Sunday night. We had a lot of people in the chat that were crying saying, "Oh my gosh, McCaffrey needs to fall down the rankings. McCaffrey needs to move down." And I pull up what McCaffrey did and he had 10 targets. And I'm like, what the hell are we talking about at this point? CMC averaging nine targets a game. Still very clearly needs to be an S tier running back in a full PPR format.
Now, moving over to our A tier running backs, we are going to move Bijan Robinson down into this range. It would be different if Tyler Allgeier's usage was just a one-off thing this week or if Tyler Allgeier coming away with multiple rushing touchdowns was just a weird instance in which Allgeier was breaking off these long random runs when they got to the 30-yard line. But no, it's that they are getting to the goal line and they are giving the ball to Tyler Allgeier. Bijan Robinson only has two carries inside the five-yard line all season. Bijan Robinson only has two rushing touchdowns all year. Whereas if you go ahead and look at what you've gotten from Tyler Allgeier, Allgeier has six rushing TDs. So because Bijan doesn't have the goal-line role in his own offense, it's very tough to put him inside S tier. Now he's still averaging six targets a game. He's still averaging 20 fantasy points per game. He's still going to be an A tier running back for us right there with Jameer Gibbs as well.
Gibbs hasn't shown the same level of consistency as these other top running backs, but the ceiling is higher than anybody's other than Jonathan Taylor's, of course. But you go through and you look at this over the past four weeks for Gibbs, you've seen 7.5, then 37, then 5.8, then 38 fantasy points. So, it's just up, down, up, down, up, down. But with Gibbs averaging 20 and a half points per game, 77 rushing yards per contest, and about four targets. And the David Montgomery averaging about six and a half targets a game, 21 and a half fantasy points per game. So Montgomery obviously outscoring Gibbs and Bijan. We see an incredibly high ceiling this week with the 40 fantasy points. And he's had an incredibly high floor all season where he's only had one game fewer than 16 fantasy points. And in that game he had about 13. So the floor is higher than almost anybody's because of the receiving role. But the reason I'm going to put Montgomery slightly below Gibbs and Bijan is going to be the fact that Montgomery, you still have to go through his by-week. And his by-week is going to be in week 12. And again, if we only have weeks 11, 12, 13, 14 left of the regular season. And one of those weeks you're going to be on by, that means you're going to miss 25% of the remaining regular season games.
Now, moving over to B tier, we are going to have Josh Jacobs leading us off. Now, I am stressing in a big-time way about this Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia Eagles game. Right now, I have 91 points in my matchup and Cory has 128. So, I'm down 37 points, but I still have Josh Jacobs, Dallas Goedert, and Saquon Barkley all to go. So, I am going to be stressing this, um, with Josh Jacobs rest of season-wise. Obviously, we'll update this after the game tonight. Just make sure you're subscribed. But he's averaging 19 and a half fantasy points per game and he's averaging three and a half targets per game. So, the receiving volume has been there. Right now on Underdog Fantasy, they currently have him at higher or lower 91.5 total yards for tonight's game. Higher or lower 14.5 fantasy points.
James Cook is averaging over a 100 rushing yards per game. The only running back ahead of James Cook in rushing so far this season is actually Jonathan Taylor. But also out of all running backs that we've discussed in this video so far, James Cook is averaging the fewest amount of targets per game as well. And we have seen games in which the Buffalo Bills lose. Obviously, you have James Cook actually scaling back with that production.
Saquon Barkley will be that next running back. Saquon Barkley again is the running back two on my own fantasy team right now. The expectations for tonight's game is he is higher or lower 14.05 fantasy points and higher or lower 96.5 total yards on Underdog Fantasy, which I'm really hoping he hits the higher. Again, I need these guys. But of course, if you wanted to check out any of those projections over on Underdog, you can find the link to Underdog Fantasy in the description as well as the comment section. Code Flock will get you a $100 added to your account after you play your first five. And on top of that, you'll get a Gimme Jalen Hurts pick, higher or lower, half a total yard for the game tonight as well. You can find that link to Underdog Fantasy in the description as well as the comment section.
Now, moving over to Rico Dowdle. I understand Rico Dowdle this past week only scored 15.5 fantasy points. Maybe that's not the most exciting thing, but ultimately he had 21 opportunities. Two weeks back he had 28 opportunities. He definitely looks like he is banged up. So, I would expect that he is going to be missing practice probably on Wednesday here. I mean, if you just look at every single play he gets the ball, he's grimacing in pain. But, they're going to continue to ride him like a workhorse. We have seen the games in which Rico Dowdle's been the starting running back for the Carolina Panthers lead to 32, 33, 28, and 15 fantasy points. So, he's averaging like 22 points a game as a starter.
Now, our next running back is going to be Javonte Williams. He was just on by, but I do want to reiterate that Javonte so far this season is averaging 15.5 carries per game and about four targets per game. So, almost 20 opportunities a game. And this is a good Dallas Cowboys offense. Now, a big thing that you're going to see is Dallas trail a lot of these games in the second half based off their defenses. And if we look at the matchups going into the future, they get to play the Raiders in week 11. Javonte will be incredibly high in our rankings, but then they play against Philly, then they play against KC, then they play against Detroit. So, you're going to have that three-game stretch in which the Dallas Cowboys are dogs in every single one of those games.
Now, our next running back is going to be Kyren Williams. With Kyren, you do see only 17 opportunities this past week against the Rams, but he has multiple rushing touchdowns. Now, of course, it is very clear that Blake Corum has a much larger role this season than last season. We've seen Kyren go from the premier bell cow running back in the NFL as the only player in the league, seeing 90% of his team snaps. But that has gotten scaled back dramatically. The Rams are such a good team though, and Kyren Williams is averaging over three targets per contest. So, even though Blake Corum's getting more so involved, um, Kyren Williams still a top 12 running back very easily.
Um, Derrick Henry, first and second out running back that's touchdown dependent. He hasn't scored touchdowns lately, so he hasn't been good lately. But there is still a lot of upside for Derrick Henry, assuming that this Baltimore Ravens offense gets things on the right track, which I think that should be the expectations. Derrick Henry has had at least 20 opportunities every game over the past four. But also, he has not scored 20 fantasy points in a single game since week one. If you go ahead and you look at the efficiency numbers, he is currently sitting here averaging 4.2 yards per target, which is the second worst mark in his NFL career. And he's averaging 4.8 yards per attempt, which is down dramatically in comparison to 5.9 the year prior.
Now, Bucky Irving did not practice at any point last week, and he got ruled out on Friday. So, my expectations with Bucky, he probably doesn't play this week. I think he's probably back by the fantasy playoffs and he's probably a running back one by that point. But again, it's very tough to project that out. This is going to be the number one player that's important to monitor the practice reports with, which of course I'll be keeping you posted with those all week long.
Ashton Genty will be our next player. Genty against Denver came through. He had 19 carries, he had five targets. This is now back-to-back games with five targets, which is really exciting. But ultimately, the offense is just garbage. The offensive line is horrible. It's the same concern that you have with Breece Hall. I just traded for Breece Hall in the Flock League. Really happy that he came through and scored these 20 points in a tough matchup against the Cleveland Browns. You have another tough matchup here having to play at New England this next week. Um, with Breece, the 22 opportunities this past week is in line with him being used as a bell cow ever since you had the Breece Hall injury. The issue is the New York Jets are just a complete dumpster fire.
Now, moving over to Quinshawn Judkins. Judkins had 22 carries this past week. And with those 22 carries in a good matchup against a Jets defense that had just traded away their two best players, what did Quinshawn Judkins do? He came through and he scored 10.5 points. Reason being, not a massive role as a receiver. He's had one game with 20 or more receiving yards this season. I mean, right now, he is currently sitting here averaging about 2.3 targets per game. Um, but he's a talented running back. You have the big-play upside. When the touchdowns are there, he's going to look great. Again, just when the touchdowns aren't there, it's going to be tough.
Then moving over to our next name is going to be TreVeyon Henderson. Henderson is the biggest riser that we are going to have in these rankings. I think he deserves to rise where he had two runs this week that looked better than anything we had ever seen from Rhamondre Stevenson. He drops 28 fantasy points and not only do you have Rhamondre injured, but now you also have Terrell Edmunds injured as well. So, it is really just, um, I guess TreVeyon Henderson is the last player standing here for the New England Patriots. And again, I know this is something that a lot of people have discussed at length, but this is pretty much the best schedule you could ask for going into the future for a running back.
Now, Amari Hampton will be our next player. With Hampton, the expectations are he misses week 11. The Chargers have a by-week in week 12 and at the earliest he is back in week 13. He is already eligible to return. He went on the IR in week six. He's missed week six, seven, eight, nine, 10. So, he's missed five weeks, but again, reports are saying that he's not going to be ready until after the buy. And you'd assume that it takes him a little bit of time to get ramped up. I, as an eight-and-two team for my own roster, would be going through and would be looking to trade to get Amari Hampton if it wasn't for the Joe Alt injury, lowering my expectations for the offensive line for this team.
Now, moving over to Jaylen Warren. Jaylen Warren, severely capped ceiling, has not scored 20 fantasy points at any point over the past two seasons, but at the same time, he's coming through and he's giving you at the very minimum 15 to 20 opportunities every single week. And that's enough for somebody to just be a must-start player for you.
Um, Chase Brown coming off a game in which he had 14 targets, which doesn't sound believable, right? That's a Christian McCaffrey stat line. But now at this point, after that massive game, Chase Brown's averaging five targets a contest. Now, at the same time, he's only sitting here with 46 rushing yards per game. Chase Brown could move up these rankings in a dramatic way if this Sam Perine injury ends up rolling into the future. Like if Perine were to miss more time, then that's what's going to lead to Chase Brown getting to these monster volume numbers where Chase Brown this past week played 96% of the snaps for the Bengals, which the last time he played 80% or more was actually back last season.
Now, Travis Etienne is a running back that I traded away on my own fantasy team. And honestly, he comes in against the Houston Texans. He is just a straight-up bell cow running back where you don't see his role expand whatsoever, and you get the rushing touchdown as well for Travis Etienne.
Now moving over to DeAndre Swift. Swift typically had been a D-tier level running back for us and this week he scores 15 fantasy points. He has 22 opportunities. He has eight targets out of the backfield, but he's very inefficient with these. I mean, so far this season, he's sitting with 6.6 yards per target, 4.8 yards per carry is not a bad mark whatsoever, but Khalil Herbert just has looked better from a per-touch perspective. And it does seem like Khalil Herbert is now all of a sudden going to be getting some work when it comes to the goal line. So, I still think DeAndre Swift's the starting running back, but Herbert is going to be eating into his work for sure.
David Montgomery will be our next player. Dave Montgomery averaging 11.5 points per game, you know what you're going to get. But the reason we're going to rank him higher than just his raw points per game mark will be the fact that if you were to get an injury to Jahmyr Gibbs, Montgomery turns into a league winner.
AJ Dillon, JK Dobbins will be our next two running backs here. If you were looking at what we have with the Denver RBs, clearly when healthy, JK Dobbins has been the starting player for the Broncos. But there's a big butt with this one. JK Dobbins injured his foot Thursday night against the Raiders. We were told that he is going to go explore a second opinion and that second opinion may lead to Dobbins missing some time, which if that were to be the case, we could see AJ Dillon turn into a league winner, very similar to TreVeyon Henderson.
Now, Woody Marks will be our next running back. Um, with Woody Marks, he looks like he's the starting running back in Houston. I mean, ever since he's gone through the buy, he's been averaging about 15 opportunities a game. Um, he also is going to have a role as a receiver. The big issue you have is just this Houston Texans offensive line's garbage. And then Aaron Jones does look like he is the starting running back for the Minnesota Vikings as well. Um, the issue that you're going to have with Aaron Jones is it looks like this Vikings offense is also no bueno.
Now, moving over to our next running back, Kamani Vidal is going to lead us off as a running back that looks like he is probably a must-start name when it comes to what you're going to get this week. And in terms of what you're going to get afterwards, it's just tougher to project out because if we are looking at specifically Amari Hampton's timeline, if he comes back in week 13, then you get only one startable week from Kamani Vidal because again, you're actually in a spot in which the Chargers have a buy in week 12.
Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet are just going to be two running backs that are handcuffs. If Charbonnet were to go down, Kenneth Walker turns into a league winner. If, um, Walker were to go down, Charbonnet turns into a league winner. But right now, they're both averaging exactly 10 fantasy points per game. They are not startable until we see otherwise.
Tyjae Spears technically is the lead back in New York, but frankly, it doesn't matter much knowing that you're going to have him splitting regardless here with Devin Singletary.
Going over to Trey Benson. Trey Benson averaging, like it doesn't matter any of the Trey Benson stats this year. The fact of the matter is with Benson, we have yet to see him really prove himself as a top-tier option at the running back position. It's really only speculation on how he's going to perform. And if we're going to look at the timeline here, I'd imagine they're not rushing Trey Benson back anytime soon, knowing that this team's now playing for nothing.
Now, moving over to our next name, we are going to have Alvin Kamara. Kamara sees a massive step upwards with the volume in this offense, but frankly, who cares? Because Alvin Kamara comes in this week. He has 25 opportunities and still can't score 15 fantasy points.
Rashaad White will be our next running back. If you are looking at White, he is losing ground to Sean Tucker in this backfield, which does make it very tough to rank him because I would say he's probably a low-end RB2 in any game in which you have no Bucky Irving, but it's not like Bucky's guaranteed to be out for the rest of the season. And with that as well, it's not like Rashaad White is a must-start player the way that he was earlier in the year.
Now, our next name is Khalil Herbert. If you are looking at Herbert at this point, he is just a premium handcuff running back where if you were to get an injury to DeAndre Swift, he turns into a potential league winner, but, um, he does have a role here and that role does look to be expanding. So, I'm fine bumping him up the rankings a bit.
Jordan Mason, just a handcuff running back. If Jones were to go down, Jordan Mason could be exciting. Nothing else.
Um, JaMycal Hasty. I don't even know why we're still ranking. Like honestly, I would rather have Tyler Allgeier over JaMycal Hasty at this point. There's no way in hell you can ever go out there and start him. He doesn't catch the ball whatsoever. I mean, right now he's currently averaging a total of 1.2 targets per game and he's in one of the worst offenses in the league and he's in a committee. So, yeah, I think I would go with Tyler Allgeier ahead of him.
And then Rhamondre Stevenson is averaging 9.3 fantasy points per game. And again, TreVeyon Henderson looks 10,000 times better. Rhamondre is injured. Isiah Pacheco is averaging seven and a half fantasy points a game. Can't imagine ever starting a player like Isiah Pacheco. So yeah, this last tier of running backs I almost want nothing to do with. It is funny that this year in fantasy, I'd say like the top 27 or so running backs are the guys that I'd feel comfortable starting and not much beyond that.
But I really appreciate you and of course, I am hoping you won your matchup this week. I'm really hoping I win. We need a big Barkley day, a big Jacobs day, and a big Dallas Goedert day. And of course, if you want to go check out any of those higher or lowers on Underdog Fantasy, links always in the description. It's always in the comment section. Code Flock will get you $100 added to your account after you play your first five. Plus, on top of that, you'll be getting a Gimme Jalen Hurts pick, higher or lower, half a total yard, and you'll be getting free questions that you can ask me in the live streams. And I'm live streaming every single day until Christmas. I really appreciate you and really hope I get to see you out with the live stream later.