Transcription
Hello everyone, welcome to Bald Guy Money. And over the past two weeks, we've seen a meaningful market bounce with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones recovering most of their 2026 losses as the United States tries diplomacy with Iran, resulting in a pullback in oil prices along with oil stocks represented here by the VDE ETF on the right. In line with what Michael Oliver and I warned viewers about last week, when we urged people not to chase the oil stocks and wait for a pullback.
Now, as this is happening, gold, silver, and mining stocks continue to shine despite the roller coaster we've been on, with all three outperforming the major stock indexes so far in 2026. With both gold and silver maintaining 62% share of value amongst the top 10 assets ranked by market cap, meaning that gold and silver are more valuable than all the companies on this list combined. That said, there are major questions about how sustainable these recent moves up for metals and mining stocks are, as concerns about inflation and failed negotiations between the United States and Iran have some wondering if this isn't just a small move up before a bigger move down.
So, in this video, that's exactly what I want to cover. Starting with the long-term outlook for gold and silver based on key data points that we got just this week, which are telling us exactly what to expect from precious metals over the next 12 to 24 months, including an update on affordability, which is always very popular in my videos. And we'll finish by taking a look at the short term and what to expect leading into the April 29th Federal Reserve interest rate decision, as we talk about where the price floors are for gold and silver for people who are looking to nail a pullback.
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So, jumping in, as tempting as it is to follow the news cycle to determine what happens next for gold and silver, we got some very important data points this past week, which in my opinion give us a clearer picture of what to expect from gold and silver over the next 12 to 24 months. Starting with central bank gold buying, which I said was nothing to worry about in my last video and is a sentiment shared by Joanie Tevis at Switzerland's largest bank, UBS, who strongly cautioned people against taking headlines about central bank gold sales at face value.
Now, the data we received this week was central bank gold buying for the month of February, following the dramatic January pullback in gold and silver prices. And what we can see in that data is that central banks increased purchases of gold following the pullback versus the previous two months and bought a net 19 tons of gold when you factor in both buying and selling. Now, consistent with recent headlines saying that central banks are buying less gold, this is a slight drop versus what central banks bought in February of last year, as you can see in the table here on the screen. That said, the amount of US dollars being spent on gold by central banks is increasing significantly along with the increasing price of gold. And this is the part of the story that the mainstream financial media simply doesn't share because they are trying to sell you stocks and do not want people in physical precious metals.
And this continued attention to gold by central banks is presumably why, at least in part, the US dollar hasn't gained as much as many experts had expected, struggling to get above 100 on the dollar index and down a little more than 2% over the past 12 months despite a significant conflict raging in the Middle East. While over that same 12-month period of time, during which the dollar has largely chopped sideways, gold and silver have gained significantly, up 58% and 160% respectively, which is also a good reminder of just how far we've come in one year.
Now, on to the next data point. The Federal Reserve updated its balance sheet this past week. And for those of you who don't know what this is, this basically shows how much money the Federal Reserve has printed since its inception and pumped into the market by purchasing mortgages and US government debt, which is what they're buying right now. And as you can see here on the screen, that amount increased by nearly $20 billion this past week, making the total increase versus the December low, when the Federal Reserve suddenly stopped its tightening program and immediately started printing money again, $158 billion in newly created money lent to the US government to pay for expenses they couldn't cover with tax revenue or new borrowing, which, in addition to bank credit and loans, expands the total money supply, making your paper currency worth less.
And with the US M2 money supply now at a record high of nearly $23 trillion and growing, to go along with the nearly $40 trillion in US national debt. All of which is being accompanied by a global money supply that is exploding, as you can see on the screen here showing money supply for the world's four major central banks. And combined with the market now taking the Federal Reserve at its word when it talks about interest rate cut pauses instead of interest rate hikes, with data this week now showing the market overwhelmingly expects the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady in 2026. All of this gives us the perfect ingredients for a 2008 to 2011 style boom in the prices of gold and silver, which, as a long-term investor and not a day trader, tells me that everything I and other metals experts have been expecting to happen is in fact happening, and it's starting now.
And in fact, we can see that most clearly when we look at real interest rates, which measures the one-year interest rate minus the CPI, which is poised to go negative very soon, standing at 0.4% today, which is the lowest level we've seen since April 2023, giving us the major catalyst we need, those real negative interest rates, to make the next leg up for gold and silver. But sadly, what this means for Americans and other people around the world who are struggling to save money, with the latest data out of the United States showing a personal savings rate of only 4%. At the same time, personal income in the United States for the month of February actually fell by 0.1%. Is that affording gold and silver is about to get a lot more difficult. As I've been warning everyone since 2022, while we've been watching the gold and silver affordability rate crash, and with the median US household being able to afford only 0.7 ounces of gold today, according to the latest data, versus more than 2 ounces of gold in 2011 in the wake of a recession and in the midst of a metals blow-off top, it's no exaggeration to say that you'd better get some now before you're completely priced out.
With the same thing applying to silver, as affordability for it too has crashed, with the median US household only being able to afford 44 ounces of silver per year at current prices versus 94 ounces back in 2011. Which, despite some short-term headwinds for precious metals, which I will get to in a moment, makes a strong case for staying on a buying schedule versus waiting to go all-in at a bottom, as that magical bottom price may not come, and it may result in not having the correct protection for the big monetary debasement that is just beginning.
Now, just before we discuss what the current price floors for gold and silver are, I want to remind everyone here that owning land is just as important as owning gold and silver. And for full disclosure, just this past week, I purchased a small piece of land myself to be used for relaxing and for prepping, and work on the lot will start this week. But it's something I am very passionate about and believe in. And if you've wanted to buy some land, but have had problems getting started, please remember that channel partner, Land of Land, can help make that happen easily and affordably. They have great properties in states across America, including new lots in Colorado and Texas, with many starting right around $1,000. They accept credit cards for payments and even run auctions where you can scoop up great properties at low prices. So check them out, and I will leave a link to their auction in the video description below. It's free to look at, and by using the code bald guy, you get $300 off your purchase to buy something the Federal Reserve cannot print at landofland.com. Check them out.
Now, moving on to this video's viewer question. And please remember that I answer one viewer question in every single video I do. Don't be shy. Type your questions for me in the comments section below right now, and it may appear in my next video. And this one here comes from Jim St. John. And it's a simple question asking me if $4,600 per ounce is the price floor for gold. So, we're going to take a look at that, as well as the price floor for silver. But we'll start with gold, which so far in 2026 has been as high as $5,600 per ounce and as low as $4,100 per ounce. And at $4,750 today, it's not far from its average price of $5,000 in 2026. But it is trading within this very wide downward sloping channel marked by the blue lines on the screen.
Now, since April 1st, we have been trading in the upper half of this trading channel, which is marked by the black line on the screen. And it's clear that gold is having difficulty on a technical basis getting above $4,800 an ounce. And because of this, despite all of the fundamentally bullish things I just presented to you all, I suspect we will have one more wave down before we start the real reversal, which for gold I expect to start as early as May or as late as July of this year. And although this trading channel suggests sub-$4,000 gold is possible, I will have to disappoint all of the Gareth Soloway fans out there by saying that the real price floor for gold, at least on a weekly closing basis, is most likely at the 200-day moving average, which as of today is $4,174 an ounce and rising to reflect the increase we've seen in price since August 2025. Meaning that it's a little lower than the $4,600 price floor that Jim asked about in his question, but significantly higher than the $3,500 pullback target from Gareth Soloway that I get asked about almost on a daily basis, with my current expected floor area between $4,300 and $4,400 per ounce for gold.
Now, the good news for gold bulls is that the worst is likely behind us. But remember, we have a Federal Reserve meeting on April 29th. And with US CPI hitting 3.3% for the month of March, which is the highest we've seen it since May 2024, there is a good chance that we will see a pullback to the BGM floor zone between $4,300 and $4,400, just as we saw a pullback after the last meeting where Jerome Powell scared the market into thinking rate hikes were actually possible. So if you're buying on a schedule, that $4,300 to $4,400 area would be a place to use a little more budget than you usually would. And that's how I'd play it instead of waiting to go all-in at one price point.
Now, moving over to silver, the situation is slightly different because, as I said in March of last year, when I told you all to expect one more dip for silver below $30 an ounce before we never see it again, silver has a history of dipping just below the 200-day moving average price before it makes big moves up in a bull market. And that is exactly what we saw last year on our way to a high of $121 an ounce in January of this year before pulling back to $61 in March. Now, considering the fact that the 200-day moving average is just below $60 an ounce and likely to get above it very soon, I'd say that we have very solid support for silver at $60 an ounce. Meaning the low of $61 from March is likely the price floor, with a wider range being between $60 and $71 an ounce. But that doesn't mean, of course, that we can't temporarily move below that, like we did in April of last year. Meaning the price floor for silver remains at $54.50 an ounce, although I think the possibility of getting there is very low. And it's more likely that we get an intraday dip below that 200-day moving average, possibly even in the high 50s in the worst-case scenario if it happens soon, which is an area I would definitely use more budget to buy along with the silver mining stocks, as I don't think such a dip will last very long before we challenge new highs in September or October of this year.
So Jim, I hope that clarifies things for you, not only for gold but for silver as well. And remember, although I expect to see one more pullback before we start to move up again, the macro environment currently favors much higher gold and silver prices. This is why silver remains above $70 an ounce today, which is a price we could only dream of one year ago, and why central banks bought the dip in gold price in February. A major monetary debasement is coming. Real interest rates, as I showed in this video, are poised to go negative. And this is the precise moment that started a new gold and silver bull market in 2002 after a 22-year bear market for precious metals. It is what led to a major move up in price between 2008 and 2011. So, ignore the war, ignore the headlines, and focus on the fundamentals because a reversal can start literally at any time. And once it starts, it will be too late to benefit from this pullback.
So, with that said, that's it for this video. Thank you very much for watching. Remember, if you enjoyed the content, please make some noise for the algorithm by leaving a like below. That helps this video reach more people who need to hear this message. And if you have a question for me that you'd like to see me address in a future video, also please put that in the comments section below right now. You never know, I may answer it in my next video. So with that said, I'm wishing you all a fantastic week ahead. Please remember to take care of yourselves and take care of each other. See you all in the next video. Goodbye.